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Racing Chat - Friday 17th June (Royal Ascot day 4)


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Ascot 2.30
Eighteen two year old fillies assemble for the opener on day four of the Royal meeting for the group 3 Albany Stakes run over 6F. I have a strong fancy here in the Saeed Bun Suroor trained Mawj who looked special when blitzing her rivals on her debut at Newmarket last month under today’s rider Ray Dawson. The runner up Believing has won since boosting the form and actually re-opposes here today. The biggest danger may well be the Aidan O’Brien runner Mediate who’s already won in group company at Naas last month. The finish can be fought out by these two promising fillies. Third favourite is Queen Olly who looked good when winning on her debut at York and should be thereabouts but for me this is all about the daughter of Exceed And Excel who will bounce off of this ground and reports of a spectacular gallop recently can be heeded here.
 
MAWJ 3 points win 10/3 BetVictor
 
Ascot 3.05
A wide open group 1 Commonwealth Cup is next up. Run over 6F the race is for three year olds only. Richard Fahey’s Perfect Power is dropping back to sprint distances having failed to last out the mile in the 2000 guineas finishing 7th beaten just over 6L. That form looks good now with the 1st and 2nd winning group ones since. He has to be a player here. El Caballo has also to be on the shortlist having won his last six races including the group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes when just out battling rival Flaming Rib. I’m interested in the horse who finished fourth that day beaten 2 3/4L, the David Loughnane trained Go Bears Go. He stumbled at the start there and was always playing catch up afterwards. He has an excellent record at the track winning two of his three starts here and just going down by a head to Perfect Power in last years Norfolk Stakes. Fast ground suits and he looks the each way value here to me in a tough contest.
 
GO BEARS GO 1 point each way 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 3.40
The class 2 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap is run over 12F and has attracted a maximum field of 19. I have a strong fancy here in the shape of the favourite in the Sir Michael Stoute trained Just Fine who is owned by The Queen and by all accounts has been trained for this contest. He was a real eye catcher on his re-appearance when a running on third to the useful Gaassee in a valuable York handicap where he was slowly out of the stalls. Sure to have tightened up for that run and with Ryan Moore on top he can take this from stall 7. John and Thady Gosden’s Trawlerman won well on his re-appearance and is up 5lb and holds some fancy future entries whilst the Irish raider Mashoor is another to bear in mind. The best of the outsiders may well be the bottom weight of Kim Bailey’s in Ajero, who’s better known as a decent hurdler. This is his handicap debut and a mark of 89 looks lenient to me. I’ll have a small ew saver on him with the additional places but my main bet has to be Just Fine for The Queen.
 
JUST FINE 3 points win 4/1 William Hill
AJERO 1/2 point each way 25/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 12345
 
Ascot 4.20
The one mile group one Coronation Stakes is run on the round course and is for three year old fillies. The best in on official ratings is the John and Thady Gosden trained Inspiral who was unbeaten as a two year old but has had his issues missing the 1000 guineas and is worth opposing here on her seasonal re-appearance. America send over two fillies who will love the fast ground in Spendarella and Pizza Blanca but it’s hard to put a handle on their form and I’m looking at opposing the pair. Also worth being against is the French runner Mangoustine who won the French 1000 guineas last time by a head from the re-opposing Cachet. She’s smart but the problem with her is that she’s yet to race on ground as fast as this. Looking back to our 1000 guineas Cachet had four of her rivals today behind her with the Ralph Beckett trained Prosperous Voyage the closest going down by a neck and the pair of them can be thereabouts today. Back in 7th that day was the Jessie Harrington trained Discoveries beaten 5L. It was a disappointing run from her but Harrington’s horses were out of form at the time and it’s maybe worth giving another chance to her on ground she will love.
 
DISCOVERIES 1 point each way 9/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 5.00
A bumper field of 29 three year old fillies go to post for the one mile Sandringham Handicap Stakes run on the straight course. Richard Hannon’s Heredia did really well to win at York last time over 7F when slowly away and finding trouble in running but eventually getting out and flying home to win by a head from Espresso who re-opposes here today on 2lb better terms. She’s been raised 7lb and with this race mooted by her trainer afterwards looks likely to be very competitive. I can’t understand the discrepancy between her and Espresso mind, who although having had the run of the race really shouldn’t be four times the price of Heredia. David O’Meara has had a good week and his handicap debutant Love Interest makes some appeal at a big price. She’s bumped into some smart sorts in her short career and can also run well along with Archie Watson’s Pink Carnation who’s also making her handicap debut here. A tough race with Heredia the main bet with a couple of small each way savers in Espresso and Love Interest.
 
HEREDIA 2 points each way 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234567
ESPRESSO 1/2 point each way 28/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
LOVE INTEREST 1/2 point each way 20/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
 
Ascot 5.35
A disappointing turnout for the group 2 King Edward VII Stakes run over 12F with just six going to post. The Epsom Derby form is represented here by Aidan O’Brien’s Changingoftheguard who ran 5th beaten 9 1/4L. The 7th in the race Nahaani hardly franked the form with a disappointing effort on Wednesday in the Queens Prize and I’ll take the Charlie Appleby trained Ottoman Fleet to take this. Only lightly raced the son of Sea The Stars followed up his unlucky second at Newbury when taking a listed race at Newmarket in May. He looks to have bags of potential and to me looks the likeliest winner here. Savvy Victory was only 1 3/4L behind the selection at Newmarket and looks held whilst Lysander has a progressive profile and should run well.
 
OTTOMAN FLEET 2 points win 9/4 William Hill
 
Ascot 6.10
A real brain teaser to finish with today. A maximum field of 28 go to post for the 5F Palace Of Holyroadhouse Handicap for three year olds only. The weights are headed by the Wesley Ward trained Ruthin who went off favourite for the Windsor Castle last season when only 7th behind Chipotle. Korker represents the in form Karl Burke stable who is up 9lb for a cosy York handicap victory last time out. That pair both have decent claims. Irish raider Ladies Church trained by Johnny Murtagh has some smart sprinting form to his name and can take a hand in the finish in his first handicap. Sterling Knight is chasing a hat trick though is 12lb higher than when starting his winning spree and the drop back a furlong may not be a bonus. A real hard handicap where stakes should be kept small and I’ll go with Ladies Church each way.
 
LADIES CHURCH 1 point each way 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
 
 
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ehrza   3 05      1/4 pt win 7/1     U/P  

candleford   3 40   1/4 pt win  9/1    WWON   

ajero    3 40  1/5  pt  ew 20/1    2ND    

shamlaan  6 10 1/5ppt win   20/1    U/P

 

 

 

P/L   + 129 pt  

Edited by black rabbit
selections
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Someone asked me if I was keeping tally over the festival .....I don't normally do that tbh..normally I just look and I'm  in profit or not ?? ...then I move on ......but for the record  .....currently the combined profit  is showing at +196.00 ...that's after all losses etc ...got about 40  staked tomorrow and same probably sat so will be well in profit even if all lose no matter what now 

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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Someone asked me if I was keeping tally over the festival .....I don't normally do that tbh..normally I just look and I'm  in profit or not ?? ...then I move on ......but for the record  .....currently the combined profit  is showing at +196.00 ...that's after all losses etc ...got about 40  staked tomorrow and same probably sat so will be well in profit even if all lose no matter what now 

Therein lies the temptation for punters to overbet in these races and get caught out if the selections unfortunately fail.  I am very happy with a 10% stake so another 4 pts are staked on your selections today.  Some punters may feel happy with 50% stakes or even more.  One has to be comfortable with an ongoing staking strategy that can weather the storm of losing days.  As you say no matter what happens you will not lose over this festival which is really great news.  I just urge caution to those punters that may be tempted to follow on without due regard to personal financial circumstances.  Very best of luck today.  You richly deserve to reap the rewards of the very hard work and effort that you have put into your ratings.

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6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Therein lies the temptation for punters to overbet in these races and get caught out if the selections unfortunately fail.  I am very happy with a 10% stake so another 4 pts are staked on your selections today.  Some punters may feel happy with 50% stakes or even more.  One has to be comfortable with an ongoing staking strategy that can weather the storm of losing days.  As you say no matter what happens you will not lose over this festival which is really great news.  I just urge caution to those punters that may be tempted to follow on without due regard to personal financial circumstances.  Very best of luck today.  You richly deserve to reap the rewards of the very hard work and effort that you have put into your ratings.

I think point is you will have losing days ....sometimes I get my ass kicked its part of the game but if your making sensible selections you'll gain some further down the line and slowly it comes back .....most important thing is to have a betting bank so you can ride the waves ....I can't overstate that .....

If you like to bet say 4 or 5 pts each weekend then your bank shoukd be around 80 pts which gives you 4 monthes uninterrupted betting and takes the pressure off .....if you lose .....just come back next week but I say don't be tempted to chase losses that can be a bank buster you have to be strong and disciplined ....

Then at the at the end of each month I'll put in my betting "pocket money " this strengthens the bank and if you have the odd winner here and there you'll soon see your bank growing ..before long you can withstand 6 monthes ..8 monthes .... and it makes the whole thing just much more enjoyable ....more like a savings account rather than a betting account ......

You shrug off the bad times ...oh well ....and come back and try next week .....then when the good times come you watch it grow again .....its really important to have that in place though 

Me personally .....I have a main bank and an emergency bank in case I ever got wiped out but I've never had to access that in all the time I've been betting ....so I put my 30 40 50 whatever you can afford each month .....then let's say you win 200 over 2 to 3 monthes....your 1000 pt bank can now stand at 1600  ...in that situation.....I'll strengthen both banks by 50pts so the 1000pt becomes 1050pt etc ....then take the extra 500 and go put a deposit on a holiday ?....  that way racing never seems upsetting ....I never get hassle from the missus because I just hand her money every so often and say let's go on a hol ....and the whole thing just goes round and round ....all it takes is a bit of discipline 

Edited by richard-westwood
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I totally agree. I have increased my stake gradually from £2 up to £100 over the last 7 years or so but only increase my stakes when my cumulative profits have increased. Meticulous record keeping is essential. There are bad periods, I made a loss in the 7 months to February.

When I have made a certain amount I give 40% of it to my children, 40% to charity and 20% to treat myself.

That way I don't feel so guilty about spending so much time on gambling.

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4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I think point is you will have losing days ....sometimes I get my ass kicked its part of the game but if your making sensible selections you'll gain some further down the line and slowly it comes back .....most important thing is to have a betting bank so you can ride the waves ....I can't overstate that .....

If you like to bet say 4 or 5 pts each weekend then your bank shoukd be around 80 pts which gives you 4 monthes uninterrupted betting and takes the pressure off .....if you lose .....just come back next week but I say don't be tempted to chase losses that can be a bank buster you have to be strong and disciplined ....

Then at the at the end of each month I'll put in my betting "pocket money " this strengthens the bank and if you have the odd winner here and there you'll soon see your bank growing ..before long you can withstand 6 monthes ..8 monthes .... and it makes the whole thing just much more enjoyable ....more like a savings account rather than a betting account ......

You shrug off the bad times ...oh well ....and come back and try next week .....then when the good times come you watch it grow again .....its really important to have that in place though 

Me personally .....I have a main bank and an emergency bank in case I ever got wiped out but I've never had to access that in all the time I've been betting ....so I put my 30 40 50 whatever you can afford each month .....then let's say you win 200 over 2 to 3 monthes....your 1000 pt bank can now stand at 1600  ...in that situation.....I'll strengthen both banks by 50pts so the 1000pt becomes 1050pt etc ....then take the extra 500 and go put a deposit on a holiday ?....  that way racing never seems upsetting ....I never get hassle from the missus because I just hand her money every so often and say let's go on a hol ....and the whole thing just goes round and round ....all it takes is a bit of discipline 

This is a superb response to help your followers.  I do hope that many of them will copy and paste your reply into a word document for future reference as I will do

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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I totally agree. I have increased my stake gradually from £2 up to £100 over the last 7 years or so but only increase my stakes when my cumulative profits have increased. Meticulous record keeping is essential. There are bad periods, I made a loss in the 7 months to February.

When I have made a certain amount I give 40% of it to my children, 40% to charity and 20% to treat myself.

That way I don't feel so guilty about spending so much time on gambling.

When I used to dabble in Forex there was one man I knew that always used to treat his wife when he had a good win.  It made her feel good and him too for not being selfish and keeping everything for himself. 

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Ascot day 4 trends

2.30

Drawn 1-12, 1 from 92, this reduces the field to 6

Top 5 in the betting, 3 from 44

This leaves LAND OF SUMMER, CATHY COME HOME, BEAUTIFUL EYES and DOUBLE O

Last ran less than 30 days ago, 3 from 99, this removes DOUBLE O

FPLR 1, 7 from 77, AE 1.30

This leaves CATHY COME HOME at 14/1, 4 places

3.40

Favourite, 5 from 8, AE 3.63

This leaves JUST FINE at 11/2, 6 places

4.20

Drawn 1-6, 1 from 45, this reduces the field to 6

1st 2 in betting, 2 from 16, this reduces the field to 5

Last ran less than 47 days ago, 2 from 47

This leaves SPENDARELLA, DISCOVERIES and PROSPEROUS VOYAGE

Bred in Ireland, 6 from 39, AE 1.26, this removes SPENDARELLA

Finished in 1st 4 last time, 3 from 45

This leaves DISCOVERIES at 8/1, 4 places

5.00

Not in the top 4 in the betting, 3 from 139

Drawn 1 to 5, 3 from 35, AE 1.78

This leaves FRESH HOPE at 13/2, 7 places

5.35

Top 3 in the betting, 3 from 24, this reduces the field to 3

Last ran less than 21 days ago, 4 from 18, AE 1.81

This leaves GRAND ALLIANCE at 14/1

 

 

 

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8 selections today with 3 x multiple bets of 12 doubles and 8 trebles at 0.10 EW

(A) 3.20 M/R No.7 4/1, 4.10 Red No. 8 7/2, 5.30 D/R No. 2 11/4 and 7.15 D/R No.1 9/2 = 12 dbles = 14.86 and 8 Trebles poss 42.47

(B) 2.55 Red No. 1 10/3, 7.32 Ayr No.6 3/1, 7.39 Nm No. 9, 3/1 and 8.20 D/R No.2 4/1 = 12 dbles 12.94 and 8 trebles 34.21

Top 1 -4 = 4.10 Red No. 8 7/2, 5.30 D/R No.2 11/4, 7.30 Ayr No.6 3/1 and 7.39 Nm No. 9 3/1 = 12 dbles 11.41 and 12 Trebles 28.36

A total of 6 points today

I have had a wicked 4 points on @The Brigadierselections, an EW Trixie for .25 p = poss 22.29 return + 12 dbles and 8 trebles at 0.10 for 2 pts

Also 2 pts a piece on @richard-westwoodtwo races

14 pts laid out today.  Fantastic racing value imo

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Not looked properly at results yet but not a lot of winners

8.20 D/R Helen De Pourtales 2 pts win at 6.4 for 10.58 profit.  Ever Rock may do well at 7 furlongs but this is a special distances that not all horses take to .

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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On 6/16/2022 at 8:26 AM, The Brigadier said:
Ascot 2.30
Eighteen two year old fillies assemble for the opener on day four of the Royal meeting for the group 3 Albany Stakes run over 6F. I have a strong fancy here in the Saeed Bun Suroor trained Mawj who looked special when blitzing her rivals on her debut at Newmarket last month under today’s rider Ray Dawson. The runner up Believing has won since boosting the form and actually re-opposes here today. The biggest danger may well be the Aidan O’Brien runner Mediate who’s already won in group company at Naas last month. The finish can be fought out by these two promising fillies. Third favourite is Queen Olly who looked good when winning on her debut at York and should be thereabouts but for me this is all about the daughter of Exceed And Excel who will bounce off of this ground and reports of a spectacular gallop recently can be heeded here.
 
MAWJ 3 points win 10/3 BetVictor
 
Ascot 3.05
A wide open group 1 Commonwealth Cup is next up. Run over 6F the race is for three year olds only. Richard Fahey’s Perfect Power is dropping back to sprint distances having failed to last out the mile in the 2000 guineas finishing 7th beaten just over 6L. That form looks good now with the 1st and 2nd winning group ones since. He has to be a player here. El Caballo has also to be on the shortlist having won his last six races including the group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes when just out battling rival Flaming Rib. I’m interested in the horse who finished fourth that day beaten 2 3/4L, the David Loughnane trained Go Bears Go. He stumbled at the start there and was always playing catch up afterwards. He has an excellent record at the track winning two of his three starts here and just going down by a head to Perfect Power in last years Norfolk Stakes. Fast ground suits and he looks the each way value here to me in a tough contest.
 
GO BEARS GO 1 point each way 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 3.40
The class 2 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap is run over 12F and has attracted a maximum field of 19. I have a strong fancy here in the shape of the favourite in the Sir Michael Stoute trained Just Fine who is owned by The Queen and by all accounts has been trained for this contest. He was a real eye catcher on his re-appearance when a running on third to the useful Gaassee in a valuable York handicap where he was slowly out of the stalls. Sure to have tightened up for that run and with Ryan Moore on top he can take this from stall 7. John and Thady Gosden’s Trawlerman won well on his re-appearance and is up 5lb and holds some fancy future entries whilst the Irish raider Mashoor is another to bear in mind. The best of the outsiders may well be the bottom weight of Kim Bailey’s in Ajero, who’s better known as a decent hurdler. This is his handicap debut and a mark of 89 looks lenient to me. I’ll have a small ew saver on him with the additional places but my main bet has to be Just Fine for The Queen.
 
JUST FINE 3 points win 4/1 William Hill
AJERO 1/2 point each way 25/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 12345
 
Ascot 4.20
The one mile group one Coronation Stakes is run on the round course and is for three year old fillies. The best in on official ratings is the John and Thady Gosden trained Inspiral who was unbeaten as a two year old but has had his issues missing the 1000 guineas and is worth opposing here on her seasonal re-appearance. America send over two fillies who will love the fast ground in Spendarella and Pizza Blanca but it’s hard to put a handle on their form and I’m looking at opposing the pair. Also worth being against is the French runner Mangoustine who won the French 1000 guineas last time by a head from the re-opposing Cachet. She’s smart but the problem with her is that she’s yet to race on ground as fast as this. Looking back to our 1000 guineas Cachet had four of her rivals today behind her with the Ralph Beckett trained Prosperous Voyage the closest going down by a neck and the pair of them can be thereabouts today. Back in 7th that day was the Jessie Harrington trained Discoveries beaten 5L. It was a disappointing run from her but Harrington’s horses were out of form at the time and it’s maybe worth giving another chance to her on ground she will love.
 
DISCOVERIES 1 point each way 9/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 5.00
A bumper field of 29 three year old fillies go to post for the one mile Sandringham Handicap Stakes run on the straight course. Richard Hannon’s Heredia did really well to win at York last time over 7F when slowly away and finding trouble in running but eventually getting out and flying home to win by a head from Espresso who re-opposes here today on 2lb better terms. She’s been raised 7lb and with this race mooted by her trainer afterwards looks likely to be very competitive. I can’t understand the discrepancy between her and Espresso mind, who although having had the run of the race really shouldn’t be four times the price of Heredia. David O’Meara has had a good week and his handicap debutant Love Interest makes some appeal at a big price. She’s bumped into some smart sorts in her short career and can also run well along with Archie Watson’s Pink Carnation who’s also making her handicap debut here. A tough race with Heredia the main bet with a couple of small each way savers in Espresso and Love Interest.
 
HEREDIA 2 points each way 11/2 bet365 1/5th 1234567
ESPRESSO 1/2 point each way 28/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
LOVE INTEREST 1/2 point each way 20/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
 
Ascot 5.35
A disappointing turnout for the group 2 King Edward VII Stakes run over 12F with just six going to post. The Epsom Derby form is represented here by Aidan O’Brien’s Changingoftheguard who ran 5th beaten 9 1/4L. The 7th in the race Nahaani hardly franked the form with a disappointing effort on Wednesday in the Queens Prize and I’ll take the Charlie Appleby trained Ottoman Fleet to take this. Only lightly raced the son of Sea The Stars followed up his unlucky second at Newbury when taking a listed race at Newmarket in May. He looks to have bags of potential and to me looks the likeliest winner here. Savvy Victory was only 1 3/4L behind the selection at Newmarket and looks held whilst Lysander has a progressive profile and should run well.
 
OTTOMAN FLEET 2 points win 9/4 William Hill
 
Ascot 6.10
A real brain teaser to finish with today. A maximum field of 28 go to post for the 5F Palace Of Holyroadhouse Handicap for three year olds only. The weights are headed by the Wesley Ward trained Ruthin who went off favourite for the Windsor Castle last season when only 7th behind Chipotle. Korker represents the in form Karl Burke stable who is up 9lb for a cosy York handicap victory last time out. That pair both have decent claims. Irish raider Ladies Church trained by Johnny Murtagh has some smart sprinting form to his name and can take a hand in the finish in his first handicap. Sterling Knight is chasing a hat trick though is 12lb higher than when starting his winning spree and the drop back a furlong may not be a bonus. A real hard handicap where stakes should be kept small and I’ll go with Ladies Church each way.
 
LADIES CHURCH 1 point each way 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456
 
 

A small profit of 2 points on the day with an 11/2 winner and two places. We go again tomorrow with all to play for. Hope we all found a winner or two with the results very punter friendly.

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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

8 selections today with 3 x multiple bets of 12 doubles and 8 trebles at 0.10 EW

(A) 3.20 M/R No.7 4/1, 4.10 Red No. 8 7/2, 5.30 D/R No. 2 11/4 and 7.15 D/R No.1 9/2 = 12 dbles = 14.86 and 8 Trebles poss 42.47

(B) 2.55 Red No. 1 10/3, 7.32 Ayr No.6 3/1, 7.39 Nm No. 9, 3/1 and 8.20 D/R No.2 4/1 = 12 dbles 12.94 and 8 trebles 34.21

Top 1 -4 = 4.10 Red No. 8 7/2, 5.30 D/R No.2 11/4, 7.30 Ayr No.6 3/1 and 7.39 Nm No. 9 3/1 = 12 dbles 11.41 and 12 Trebles 28.36

A total of 6 points today

I have had a wicked 4 points on @The Brigadierselections, an EW Trixie for .25 p = poss 22.29 return + 12 dbles and 8 trebles at 0.10 for 2 pts

Also 2 pts a piece on @richard-westwoodtwo races

14 pts laid out today.  Fantastic racing value imo

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Not looked properly at results yet but not a lot of winners

8.20 D/R Helen De Pourtales 2 pts win at 6.4 for 10.58 profit.  Ever Rock may do well at 7 furlongs but this is a special distances that not all horses take to .

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Very few winners and a disappointing run from Helen De Pourtales; I guess it just doesn't like running on turf.  Some interesting observations though.  I feel I didn't get the rub of the green today so a 12.79 loss will probably not be the norm for the rest of the month.

Lots of races to chose from tomorrow so I should be spoilt for choice with regards to selections

 

 

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