opole

Noah Rubin @ 2.15 5dimes 5/10
Fully expect Rubin to play a great tournament here and with Thompson he has a winnable first round. This is Rubins home tournament in New York City. He skipped the last week in Dallas and decided to prepare in New York at home so he is fully fit and ready for the tournament and last year he played a great match vs. Nishikori. Rubin had a close match with Thompson a couple of months ago, i think he will edge it this time. Thompson on the other side had some minor issues before Davis Cup, so he played only doubles there, i think he should be fine here but still without a competitive match for almost four weeks. 

Noah Rubin @ 2.15 5dimes 5/10
Fully expect Rubin to play a great tournament here and with Thompson he has a winnable first round. This is Rubins home tournament in New York City. He skipped the last week in Dallas and decided to prepare in New York at home so he is fully fit and ready for the tournament and last year he played a great match vs. Nishikori. Rubin had a close match with Thompson a couple of months ago, i think he will edge it this time. Thompson on the other side had some minor issues before Davis Cup, so he played only doubles there, i think he should be fine here but still without a competitive match for almost four weeks. 

Cristian Rafael Coria vs. Joel Diaz Jr.
Cristian Rafael Coria ML @ 20.50 Sportbet 3/10
Coria is tough as nails, he has an iron chin and was never stopped in his seven losses and he fought some good opposition like Hiroki Okada, Daud Yordan, Custio Clayton or Paulus Moses. Although Coria isn't looking that heavy handed he dropped both Okada and Yordan so he might have above average power dropping that kind of opposition. Joel Diaz Jr. is still a prospect, very raw, he didn't fight for 16 months after getting knocked out by Regis Prograis and fought a 40yo glass chinned bum afterwards with 8 ko losses (out of 15) so no comparison to Coria at all. Coria is a living dog here and if he can bring the pressure to Diaz and maybe hurt him i can see Coria taking the fight, also on points.

Coria wins by KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo
BOOOOOOOOOOM
 

Coria wins by KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo
BOOOOOOOOOOM
 

Coria wins by KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo
BOOOOOOOOOOM
 

Coria wins by KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo
BOOOOOOOOOOM
 

Coria wins by KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo
BOOOOOOOOOOM
 

Cristian Rafael Coria vs. Joel Diaz Jr.
Cristian Rafael Coria ML @ 20.50 Sportbet 3/10
Coria is tough as nails, he has an iron chin and was never stopped in his seven losses and he fought some good opposition like Hiroki Okada, Daud Yordan, Custio Clayton or Paulus Moses. Although Coria isn't looking that heavy handed he dropped both Okada and Yordan so he might have above average power dropping that kind of opposition. Joel Diaz Jr. is still a prospect, very raw, he didn't fight for 16 months after getting knocked out by Regis Prograis and fought a 40yo glass chinned bum afterwards with 8 ko losses (out of 15) so no comparison to Coria at all. Coria is a living dog here and if he can bring the pressure to Diaz and maybe hurt him i can see Coria taking the fight, also on points.

odds on day dropped till 1.6 , he won a clear UD . easy money folks.

odds on day dropped till 1.6 , he won a clear UD . easy money folks.

I got access to the ATP playerzone data via a good friend of mine who is a regular player on the tour.

He is ALT #11 or #12 i think and there are already a few guys in from the ALT list out as for example Arguello and Collarini who are both on the ALT list received MDWCs (like Londero who is also on the Q list right now) so they are out of the ALT list, same for Cachin who received a QWC and probably doesn't need it as he gets in directly. So wouldn't be shocked if he gets in there as some other ALTs are won't come to Cordoba and will pull out like Evan Song or Tak Khun Wang. Furthermore Cordoba is the official replacement of Quito Open and we all know which big success Estrella had there so i won't be surprised if he maybe gets in or receives a wild card for qualies as Cachin as i said who received one should get in directly. He may have some contacts here which help him.  Not 100% sure of course but i wouldn't shocked as said. It isn't a reason to bet against Estrella but everyone who thinks about taking Estrella should take this into account imo. Still i would not bet on Broady here as i said, it's a classic no bet situation imo. But i didn't want to make something bad here, only some additional thoughts for you and everyone who wants to follow.

He is ALT #11 or #12 i think and there are already a few guys in from the ALT list out as for example Arguello and Collarini who are both on the ALT list received MDWCs (like Londero who is also on the Q list right now) so they are out of the ALT list, same for Cachin who received a QWC and probably doesn't need it as he gets in directly. So wouldn't be shocked if he gets in there as some other ALTs are won't come to Cordoba and will pull out like Evan Song or Tak Khun Wang. Furthermore Cordoba is the official replacement of Quito Open and we all know which big success Estrella had there so i won't be surprised if he maybe gets in or receives a wild card for qualies as Cachin as i said who received one should get in directly. He may have some contacts here which help him.  Not 100% sure of course but i wouldn't shocked as said. It isn't a reason to bet against Estrella but everyone who thinks about taking Estrella should take this into account imo. Still i would not bet on Broady here as i said, it's a classic no bet situation imo. But i didn't want to make something bad here, only some additional thoughts for you and everyone who wants to follow.

He is ALT #11 or #12 i think and there are already a few guys in from the ALT list out as for example Arguello and Collarini who are both on the ALT list received MDWCs (like Londero who is also on the Q list right now) so they are out of the ALT list, same for Cachin who received a QWC and probably doesn't need it as he gets in directly. So wouldn't be shocked if he gets in there as some other ALTs are won't come to Cordoba and will pull out like Evan Song or Tak Khun Wang. Furthermore Cordoba is the official replacement of Quito Open and we all know which big success Estrella had there so i won't be surprised if he maybe gets in or receives a wild card for qualies as Cachin as i said who received one should get in directly. He may have some contacts here which help him.  Not 100% sure of course but i wouldn't shocked as said. It isn't a reason to bet against Estrella but everyone who thinks about taking Estrella should take this into account imo. Still i would not bet on Broady here as i said, it's a classic no bet situation imo. But i didn't want to make something bad here, only some additional thoughts for you and everyone who wants to follow.

1. He had to plan his tournaments months ago and he would get sanctioned if he would pull out late without an injury so yeah, he had to go to Cleveland, no matter if he wants or not or has other plans for the weekend.
2. I watched the match vs Zandschulp last week as it was a tournament in the region i live in Germany and obviously he was tanking because he knew he has to travel to the US for the next few tournaments. As Estrella broady had to plan his year early a couple of months ago and if you pull out of a tournament you have to bring a proof that you are injured or having private reasons not to play, otherwise you would get a fine. He had no intention to win there.
3. What has A to do with B? I said Estrella has absolutely NO VALUE for me and Broady is the favorite but i didn't say Broady has any value at 1.6-75 right now. Only because one bet has no value it obviously doesn't mean the other bet makes sense or has any kind of value. In my opinion odds are perfectly fine here and Estrella is the underdog but obviously Broady is struggling a bit recently so odds are a bit shorter than they should be if Broady has a good streak or shape. 
Touching Estrella indoors must be a perfect matchup and a perfect situation and big odds. 2.25 is too short to back a guy who might have other plans at the weekend plus almost no experience on fast indoor courts in the last 5 years. This makes no sense obviously. I wish you good luck as i do not have bet placed here so i hope you'll win your bet.

You trust a guy who played only one indoor match for about 5 years with the claycourt season coming in a few days where he can probably play the qualification in Cordoba at the weekend?! and you say he should be the FAVORITE in that matchup??? No way Estrella is the fav here...

Adam Kownacki vs. Gerald Washington 
Under 7.5 rounds @ 2.690 Pinnacle 4/10

It's a 10 rounder so we need a stoppage till 1:30 in Round 7. Just for the record.

Washington is nearly 37 years old. He is solid but nothing special, lacking stamina, power and movement. And this is pretty much the whole story here. You need exactly those three things to keep Kownacki off:
1. The Pole has a sturdy chin and you only can keep him off if you've got the power to rock/hurt him. Even Charles Martin who is a big puncher couldn't do that with his power so i strongly doubt that Washington can do that.
2. You need a good stamina. You have to be there if Kownacki slows down after 6-7 rounds as he usually does.
3. And of course you need good legs (= good movement) to avoid the heavy pressure. Getting caught at the ropes is one of the ugliest things you can do vs. a pressure fighter like Kownacki.

Washington doesn't have those abilities. Especially Washingtons stamina is probably worse than Kownackis. He has a good jab but this isn't enough to keep a guy like Kownacki off. I agree Kownacki is overrated as fcuk but he should have enough to beat Washington comfortably who went life and death with Wesley Nofire in his last fight. Washington was gassing after three or four rounds. His inactivity recently isn't a good sign either. Washington is overrated due to winning a couple of rounds vs. Wilder in a hyper cautious fight at the beginning where Wilder needed a few rounds to figure out how to fight a guy who has almost the same size like himself because he only fought old shot slow small bums most of the time.

I think there is a pretty good chance that Washington will get stopped or quit early. Once he's feeling Kownackis pressure and power and slowing down with his movement i can see him falling apart like he did vs. Miller. 

Yeah, the odds for Nadal went up as a result of Djokovic crushing Pouille, but I don't believe that the reaction is adequate. I don't fancy Nadal as much as I was fancying him yesterday (when the bet was posted) anymore, but I still have him as a marginal favourite. If you're betting now, I'd still have a lean on Nadal at everything above evens. No bet on Osaka/Kvitova, so I'll be waiting only for Nadal and hope that he brings the bet in.

You can get odds around 2.15 for Nadal now.
I can't see any value in 1.80 for Nadal. Even 2.15 is questionable but obviously at those odds right now if you want to take a bet, then take Nadal at 2.15.
You might get better odds after the first service game Djokovic brings home.
No reason to take a pre game bet here. 
50/50 matchup, close odds, no value at all.
Leaning torwards Nadal as he LOOKED BETTER although both did well throughout the tournament but it was only a LOOK. This is a complete different matchup.

You can get odds around 2.15 for Nadal now.
I can't see any value in 1.80 for Nadal. Even 2.15 is questionable but obviously at those odds right now if you want to take a bet, then take Nadal at 2.15.
You might get better odds after the first service game Djokovic brings home.
No reason to take a pre game bet here. 
50/50 matchup, close odds, no value at all.
Leaning torwards Nadal as he LOOKED BETTER although both did well throughout the tournament but it was only a LOOK. This is a complete different matchup.

Some interesting fights coming up - De Gale vs Eubank JR could be a cracker!
Any thoughts @opole ?  

 

Rafael Nadal -6 games @ 2.03 Pinnacle 10/10
This is the first 10/10 bet for me this year i think. Nadal should cruise to a win here, Berdych looks decent but the matchup is simply a horror right now for the Bird and i do expect at least one set where he collapses. I 100% agree with CP here in terms of the outcome, i had this in mind since both won their matches today but i wanted to wait till Asian bookmakers publishing odds as i can't bet as those books like Marathon and all the other 10 Euro books.

Rafael Nadal -6 games @ 2.03 Pinnacle 10/10
This is the first 10/10 bet for me this year i think. Nadal should cruise to a win here, Berdych looks decent but the matchup is simply a horror right now for the Bird and i do expect at least one set where he collapses. I 100% agree with CP here in terms of the outcome, i had this in mind since both won their matches today but i wanted to wait till Asian bookmakers publishing odds as i can't bet as those books like Marathon and all the other 10 Euro books.

For no reason i have the feeling Alex Bolt will upset Zverev tomorrow. LOL.