Boxing Tips: Jan/Feb/March 2019

[Sir Puntalot]

Some interesting fights coming up - De Gale vs Eubank JR could be a cracker!

Any thoughts @opole ?  

 

[opole]

I hope we'll get odds for Germain vs. Claggett on Saturday in Canada. So far i can't see any book with a prize for that fight. I have the feeling they would/will make a big mistake but let's see.

On the other side i think Marrero is a tough matchup for Nyambayar. Marrero is awkward and has power and Nyambayar showed that he is vulnerable in his last two fights although he won them he was hurt badly.

Kownacki, Thurman and also Munguia should win their fights pretty easily although Kownacki vs Washington is a closer matchup than those other two fights obviously.

Rojas vs. Xu is another fight at the weekend where i believe we'll see a clear winner. Either Rojas via decision or he will knock the Chinese out.

[opole]

Adam Kownacki vs. Gerald Washington 

Under 7.5 rounds @ 2.690 Pinnacle 4/10

It's a 10 rounder so we need a stoppage till 1:30 in Round 7. Just for the record.

Washington is nearly 37 years old. He is solid but nothing special, lacking stamina, power and movement. And this is pretty much the whole story here. You need exactly those three things to keep Kownacki off:
1. The Pole has a sturdy chin and you only can keep him off if you've got the power to rock/hurt him. Even Charles Martin who is a big puncher couldn't do that with his power so i strongly doubt that Washington can do that.
2. You need a good stamina. You have to be there if Kownacki slows down after 6-7 rounds as he usually does.
3. And of course you need good legs (= good movement) to avoid the heavy pressure. Getting caught at the ropes is one of the ugliest things you can do vs. a pressure fighter like Kownacki.

Washington doesn't have those abilities. Especially Washingtons stamina is probably worse than Kownackis. He has a good jab but this isn't enough to keep a guy like Kownacki off. I agree Kownacki is overrated as fcuk but he should have enough to beat Washington comfortably who went life and death with Wesley Nofire in his last fight. Washington was gassing after three or four rounds. His inactivity recently isn't a good sign either. Washington is overrated due to winning a couple of rounds vs. Wilder in a hyper cautious fight at the beginning where Wilder needed a few rounds to figure out how to fight a guy who has almost the same size like himself because he only fought old shot slow small bums most of the time.

I think there is a pretty good chance that Washington will get stopped or quit early. Once he's feeling Kownackis pressure and power and slowing down with his movement i can see him falling apart like he did vs. Miller. 

[opole]

Patrick Day vs. Ismail Iliev

Patrick Day @ 2.4 5dimes 5/10

Let's be clear here...Illiev can't crack an egg with his punches, he is featherfisted and has a very boring style to fight. He NEVER knocked an opponent out in his whole career so far. Officially he scored three knockouts but one of them was a doctors stoppage due to a cut (vs. Villalba), another one was due to an injured opponent (vs. Salzmann) and the third one was more or less a corner stoppage (vs. Gulyakevich). Furthermore Iliev has a very boring style to fight, i think he is one of the most boring fighters who's fighting on a decent level in Europe and has some televised fights. I doubt he will impress the judges in America with his style + he has some attitudes which can lead to point deductions quickly as holding and he has no home advantage here so who knows.

On the other side Patrick Day is solid domestic level in the US. He beat some good opponents recently and is on a very solid streak of five straight wins by decision. His opposition was durable as i mentioned. He beat Elvin Ayala who is a durable journeymen. He beat Eric Walker who was in prison for 13 years but is a very solid boxer and beat for example one of Al Haymons top prospects Chris Pearson. Furthermore he has wins over Kyrone Davis (was a very good amateur) and Virgilijus Stapulionis. Day is a typical stylish american fighter: athletic body, fast hands and movement, explosiveness and obviously the solid amateur background you have if you grow up in those american boxing gyms.

[opole]

odds on day dropped till 1.6 , he won a clear UD . easy money folks.

[Sir Puntalot]

Nicely done @opole  

[opole]

Cristian Rafael Coria vs. Joel Diaz Jr.

Cristian Rafael Coria ML @ 20.50 Sportbet 3/10

Coria is tough as nails, he has an iron chin and was never stopped in his seven losses and he fought some good opposition like Hiroki Okada, Daud Yordan, Custio Clayton or Paulus Moses. Although Coria isn't looking that heavy handed he dropped both Okada and Yordan so he might have above average power dropping that kind of opposition. Joel Diaz Jr. is still a prospect, very raw, he didn't fight for 16 months after getting knocked out by Regis Prograis and fought a 40yo glass chinned bum afterwards with 8 ko losses (out of 15) so no comparison to Coria at all. Coria is a living dog here and if he can bring the pressure to Diaz and maybe hurt him i can see Coria taking the fight, also on points.

[opole]

11 hours ago, opole said:

Cristian Rafael Coria vs. Joel Diaz Jr.

Cristian Rafael Coria ML @ 20.50 Sportbet 3/10

Coria is tough as nails, he has an iron chin and was never stopped in his seven losses and he fought some good opposition like Hiroki Okada, Daud Yordan, Custio Clayton or Paulus Moses. Although Coria isn't looking that heavy handed he dropped both Okada and Yordan so he might have above average power dropping that kind of opposition. Joel Diaz Jr. is still a prospect, very raw, he didn't fight for 16 months after getting knocked out by Regis Prograis and fought a 40yo glass chinned bum afterwards with 8 ko losses (out of 15) so no comparison to Coria at all. Coria is a living dog here and if he can bring the pressure to Diaz and maybe hurt him i can see Coria taking the fight, also on points.

Coria wins by KOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo

BOOOOOOOOOOM

 

[opole]

Derrick Webster vs. Lennox Allen 

Lennox Allen wins by KO/TKO/DQ @ 12 William Hill 2/10

Allen is huge and he came in three pounds heavier than Webster. Allen looks like a LHW and Webster was beaten by a MW in the past. I think size matters here and i can see Allen grinding Webster down. Allen might be not that high but from the body composition i think this could be a huge mismatch. And Allen obviously has the power. 

[opole]

Felipe Romero vs. Steve Nelson

Over 2.5 rounds @ 2.4 22bet 5/10

Huge mistake by the books offering the 2.5 here. This is an 8 rounder. Romero is the first real test for Nelson and he was brought into that to give Nelson a couple of rounds and a decent test. Romero was Usyk's debut opponent and went 5 rounds with him. He also went 10 rounds with Masternak, 9 rounds with Leapai, 8 rounds with Bivol and 6 rounds with Glowacki. I know he was stopped in one round by Benavidez and Luis Garcia but he was caught cold and i doubt it'll happen again. Wouldn't be surprised if this goes the distance to be honest. Nelson has only stopped total bums so far. No doubt he'll win this but 2.5 rounds? No, i think the line should be at least 4.5...

[opole]

3 hours ago, opole said:

Felipe Romero vs. Steve Nelson

Over 2.5 rounds @ 2.4 22bet 5/10

Huge mistake by the books offering the 2.5 here. This is an 8 rounder. Romero is the first real test for Nelson and he was brought into that to give Nelson a couple of rounds and a decent test. Romero was Usyk's debut opponent and went 5 rounds with him. He also went 10 rounds with Masternak, 9 rounds with Leapai, 8 rounds with Bivol and 6 rounds with Glowacki. I know he was stopped in one round by Benavidez and Luis Garcia but he was caught cold and i doubt it'll happen again. Wouldn't be surprised if this goes the distance to be honest. Nelson has only stopped total bums so far. No doubt he'll win this but 2.5 rounds? No, i think the line should be at least 4.5...

already in the pocket, they are in round 4 now...EASYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY win

[opole]

Ivan Redkach vs. Tyrone Harris

Under 4.5 rounds @2.0 5dimes 4/10

Typical mismatch. Harris is a natural 130 pounder while Redkach is a natural 140 pounder and a big one. I doubt Harris can take the power at 140. He was stopped at 130/135 several times and now he's facing an awkward tricky southpaw with heavy hands. Furthermore Redkach came in 3 lb heavier than Harris, he might be much bigger & heavier comes fight night.

Edited February 16, 2019 by opole

[EvgeniM]

15 hours ago, opole said:

Ivan Redkach vs. Tyrone Harris

Under 4.5 rounds @2.0 5dimes 4/10

Typical mismatch. Harris is a natural 130 pounder while Redkach is a natural 140 pounder and a big one. I doubt Harris can take the power at 140. He was stopped at 130/135 several times and now he's facing an awkward tricky southpaw with heavy hands. Furthermore Redkach came in 3 lb heavier than Harris, he might be much bigger & heavier comes fight night.

Ukrainian Ivan Redkach (22-4-1, 17 KOs) made quick work of Tyrone Harris (26-14, 16 KOs) scoring a first round knockout in a scheduled eight-round welterweight match.

Nice work again, opole!

[opole]

Yomar Alamo vs. Manuel Mendez

Manuel Mendez @3.05 Pinnacle 8/10

Alamo is unproven yet, he hasn't fought anyone with a pulse and from what i've seen he's a bit amateurish. Lot of technical flaws. It looks like he has decent power but we can't say it for sure as he only fought bums in his career. In my opinion he isn't passing the eye test as he doesn't look like a elite prospect. He is the promoted fighter here so we should not forget that if it comes to the judges scorecards but hell, this is looking like some really good value on Mendez who is a very tough and durable opponent and for sure the best opponent Alamo has ever fought by a wide margin. Mendez having b2b losses recently but he fought ELITE prospects (Navarro & Fredrickson). He arguably won the Navarro fight but Golden Boy didn't allow his golden boy Navarro losing his 0 obviously. We can talk about that fight here for a long time and i could write some big analysis but it's not necessary. The case is clear as a whistle: Mendez has much more experience, has fought the much (!!) better opposition and is a tough mf in the ring who looked good vs. some of the best prospects in the country while Alamo has a padded record and looking amateurish in the footage you can watch of him but he has the promoter behind him. Could be a pick em fight under those circumstances, i would still give Mendez the edge here if it comes to a fair line. Odds on Mendez looking like the bet of the weekend. Even if he gets KOd here or losing a robbery decision those odds can't be for real.

[opole]

Joe Joyce vs. Bermane Stiverne

Under 3.5 rounds @ 2.2 5dimes 4/10

If you think you've seen the WORST Bermane Stiverne EVER 14 months ago vs. Wilder II then you might get to see an even WORSE Bermane Stiverne tomorrow night. Stiverne weighed in at 254 pounds vs. Wilder II. It was the heaviest weight he weighed in since 2008. And what happened today? I can't help myself than laughing my ass off........he comes in at 273 POUNDS!!! Come on, give me a break. He's here to collect the paycheck. He looks in AWFUL shape. He will get a beating as long as he shares the ring with Joyce tomorrow. I doubt it lasts long. 

Edited February 22, 2019 by opole

[Sir Puntalot]

1 hour ago, opole said:

Joe Joyce vs. Bermane Stiverne

Under 3.5 rounds @ 2.2 5dimes 4/10

If you think you've seen the WORST Bermane Stiverne EVER 14 months ago vs. Wilder II then you might get to see an even WORSE Bermane Stiverne tomorrow night. Stiverne weighed in at 254 pounds vs. Wilder II. It was the heaviest weight he weighed in since 2008. And what happened today? I can't help myself than laughing my ass off........he comes in at 273 POUNDS!!! Come on, give me a break. He's here to collect the paycheck. He looks in AWFUL shape. He will get a beating as long as he shares the ring with Joyce tomorrow. I doubt it lasts long. 

Yeah, Joyce doesn't waste time either so looks a solid bet.  

[Sir Puntalot]

De Gale vs Eubank JR (Saturday)

I just can't see past Eubank JR here as De Gale looks a bit lost in his last couple of fights. No doubt he's a talented boxer, but De Gale always thought he was better than he actually is and has been found out a few times.

Eubank JR has also been found out, but I can't help thinking if he could get rid of his hanger on Dad, he'd be so much better for it as he has power and talent, despite the strange antics. 

I just cannot see how De Gale wins this. He can't knock him out as he doesn't have the power, and looks certain on current form to also get outboxed.

This looks nailed on to me and could be a KO, but the win price is good enough.

Eubank JR to beat De Gale @ 1.91 Betfair

[Sir Puntalot]

De Gale comfortably beaten. I think Eubank JR has so much more to come and now he has a trainer, I'd expect him to improve a hell of a lot tactically. 

Joe Joyce bet was frustrating to watch as he should have had him out of there in round 2 or 3. The problem with Joyce is that he's very robotic and I think the first real opponent he faces, he'll be in big trouble - way too easy to hit and lacks serious power. If he could just be taught to step back and pick his punches and use more angles, he'd be a much better prospect. He's more like a clubbing old George Foreman. 

Manuel Charr could be next fight for the stupid WBA regular title, totally meaningless fight. He'd be better off fighting Chisora to see how good he really is, but think I'd be all over Chisora in that.

[opole]

two quick bets for tomorrow. One russian card in the morning and one british card in the evening. 

Kyle Haywood @2.45 5dimes 4/10

Gasan Gasanov @2.75 5dimes 4/10

Haywood is a tricky southpaw who is bringing non-stop pressure. He's looking solid enough to beat a fake prospect like Challenger who lost to a journeyman a couple of fights ago and was dropped twice by that guy. Of course he won on the cards but we all know how this works. Challenger has a suspect chin and terrible defense. Haywood lacks serious power, but it should be enough to beat that guy, maybe even by stoppage.

Gasanov is a skilled operator, don't let you fool by his fight record. He's much better than that tbf. He's a bit vulnerable with his chin and got caught too often in the past but his opponent to date hasn't power at all, he's featherfisted and couldn't stop one opponent yet although he only fought bums. Gasanov should be able to beat such an opponent.

Edited March 22, 2019 by opole

[Sir Puntalot]

Gasanov did the job.  

[Sir Puntalot]

David Price v Kash Ali

Price has been done over a few times now, but for goodness sake he is LEVELS above Kash Ali. Kash Ali has 15 fights spaced over 8 years and 3 were against the same muppet James Oliphant - you know that highly regarded boxing legend! To be honest, I reckon I could have knocked all 15 of them out and Ali only managed 7!  

A total journeyman of the highest order and Price will crush him, not only with his jab but the big right hand that will inevitably finish the fight.

Value Bet

Price to beat Kash Ali Round 1 @ 13.00 Betway

Banker Bet

Price to beat Kash Ali Rounds 1-5 @ 2.10 Coral
 

[Sir Puntalot]

Awful performance from Price, but the banker bet came in because Ali got disqualified for biting in round 5  , although Price was about to finish the job anyway.