neilovan

Leicester v Everton
Sun 2017-10-29
Keoman fired - Puel Hired ! bet reviewed

Will David Unsworth have a positive effect on Everton ? Probable answer is yes, but ... how much? Unsworth Quote ... "I'm proud of the performance, they were terrific " after loss to Chelsea 2nd team. What nonsense, to be proud of defeat ! Played against a Chelsea 2nd line-up and lost.

So Southampton finished 8th last season under Puel. The fact is that with 46 points, they were closer to relegation that the top 7. Everton were 7th in the league with 61 points. They played a dour, dull brand of football, winning just 6 games in 19 at home. Only Middlesbrough and Sunderland won fewer home league games. They scored just 17 goals at home all season, only Sunderland scored fewer (16). 

Everton are just atrocious. I am totally surprised by their form, and the way in which they are playing. I never expected it this season. I have watched them 5 times this season and they have been awful in almost every game. Forget the fact that they never replaced Lukaku. They should still have defensive structure ! Be boring, and draw a game 0-0. Once in a while, win 1-0. Just don't get thrashed 4 or 5 every week ! 

Can they get anything at Leicester ? I am not sure. They have no away form, not winning a league game in their last 10 away days. Picking up 4 points from a possible 30 is terrible. 

Leicester, have 1 win under the caretaker manager.  Under Puel it will probably be 2

 
Home Win - Odds 2.4  
 

Watford v Arsenal   Sat 2017-10-14

For me the jury is still out on Arsenal, especially on the road. Played 3 won 0, no goals scored. More damning is that they have not won a 1/2 (1st or 2nd) away from home, in any league game played this season. 

They just came off two relatively easy home wins (against Brighton and WBA). Brighton showed nothing offensively, and WBA on the road, under Pulis never play ! These are games that everyone expected Arsenal to win, so how much confidence do these wins add ? Probably not much. 

Travel wise, it is an easy weekend for Arsenal (almost a North London derby), but they are yet to show any form on the road. This is a team that has lost 6 of their last 10 away league games. They have managed to score just 3 first half away goals in 10 away games. So scoring, on the road is a problem ! 

Watford are somewhat of an enigma this season. They have also been poor in front of goal in recent home games. They have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home games (opponents have been tough, and against Brighton had a man sent off). 

Arsenal beat the poorish teams relatively easily. But somehow, they don't have the right balance/tactics/formation against decent teams that will sit in and defend. This could be a potentially frustrating afternoon for Arsenal.

Can Arsenal win this game ? I am not convinced. Watford got hammered by Man City, but they should be competitive here. Arsenal are miles away from Man City at the moment. It should be a more realistic challenge for Watford, and they could cause a shock here ! 
Another factor in this game is Chile's failure to get to the word cup. Sanchez will not be mentally ready for this game. It is a massive disappointment that could take a few weeks to get over. He probably won't start as his head is not in the right place at the moment.

Home Double Chance - Odds 2.25  
 

Southampton v Newcastle
Sun 2017-10-15
This is a match up between two teams that can't score 1st half goals. Saints have failed to score a 1st half goal in 8 of their last 10 home games (league). Newcastle have had 7 nil-nil 1st half away games in their last 8. They have not scored a 1st half goal in 9 of their last 10 away games.

It just feels like a low scoring, dull affair. Newcastle have been highest scoring (2nd) in their last 6 away games. It seems like their strategy is to play it tight for the 1st 45 minutes.

Southampton are better than their league position suggests. They played reasonably well against Man United, but lack a cutting edge upfront. For 25 minutes in the second half, they could have scored.  They miss that front man goalscorer, who will get 15 to 20 goals this season. Shane Long might run hard, but he does not score enough goals !

A few bets looks decent here.

Half time NIL-NIL (odds 2.75)
Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.85)
NO to both to score (1.95)

I just cannot see a goal bonanza here ! Newcastle just will not have enough of the ball, and Saints are a poorish in front of goal.
 
NO BTTS - Odds 1.95  

Watford v Arsenal   Sat 2017-10-14

For me the jury is still out on Arsenal, especially on the road. Played 3 won 0, no goals scored. More damning is that they have not won a 1/2 (1st or 2nd) away from home, in any league game played this season. 

They just came off two relatively easy home wins (against Brighton and WBA). Brighton showed nothing offensively, and WBA on the road, under Pulis never play ! These are games that everyone expected Arsenal to win, so how much confidence do these wins add ? Probably not much. 

Travel wise, it is an easy weekend for Arsenal (almost a North London derby), but they are yet to show any form on the road. This is a team that has lost 6 of their last 10 away league games. They have managed to score just 3 first half away goals in 10 away games. So scoring, on the road is a problem ! 

Watford are somewhat of an enigma this season. They have also been poor in front of goal in recent home games. They have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home games (opponents have been tough, and against Brighton had a man sent off). 

Arsenal beat the poorish teams relatively easily. But somehow, they don't have the right balance/tactics/formation against decent teams that will sit in and defend. This could be a potentially frustrating afternoon for Arsenal.

Can Arsenal win this game ? I am not convinced. Watford got hammered by Man City, but they should be competitive here. Arsenal are miles away from Man City at the moment. It should be a more realistic challenge for Watford, and they could cause a shock here ! 
Another factor in this game is Chile's failure to get to the word cup. Sanchez will not be mentally ready for this game. It is a massive disappointment that could take a few weeks to get over. He probably won't start as his head is not in the right place at the moment.

Home Double Chance - Odds 2.25  
 

EVerton under Koeman are just a joke. These are good players, playing badly, and it is down to the manager.
Koeman, de Boer, van Gaal all poor managers (with incredible agents). Playing this negative Dutch, sideways, backwards, sterile possession that does not work any more. The Netherlands have been left behind (I am Dutch), and they look useless. United under van Gaal were borderline unwatchable. Palace under de Boer, pathetic !
Fine, Koeman says it is unrealistic for EVerton to challenge for top 4 or 5. No problem, I fully agree. But, and it's a BIG BUT, they should be beating the lesser teams in the league, and the lesser teams in the Europa league.
I have watched them 4 times (all TV) this season. Against Man CIty they were useless. They held out for a draw, but 10 man City were unlucky, and ran them around. Against Atalanta in the Europa league they were demolished. Could have been 5-0 at half time. That 1st half performance was one of the worst I have seen from any team this year.  At Chelsea they were soundly beaten in every department. OK fair enough. IMO CHelsea are a top team. Last Thurs in Europa (at odds of 3 to 10 ffs), they can't beat the Cypriot GIANTS. Concede a ridic 88th minute goal (against 10 men), and then miss a tee'd up chance from 6 foot (free header) in injury time.
Now Everton are 7 to 10 to beat Burnley !. Seriously !!!  Burnley who are undefeated away against Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham.  And now Everton are expected to win ? Insane !
 
Burnley are 2.25 DOUBLE CHANCE (away win or Draw)
Burnley to win is 6 (bet365)  
 
 
 

Bolton v Sheffield United
 
Both teams were promoted last season, Sheffield United as Champions. United have started this season off really well, while Bolton are struggling. United have 4 wins in 6 games, while Bolton have 4 defeats in 6 games. Bolton have lost all 3 games at home this season, with just 2 points from a possible 18 to start the season. 

I don't think Bolton can win this game. I quite like the away win, draw no bet here. This means that if the away team wins, you win your bet. If the match is a draw the bet is nulled. You can only lose if the home team wins, which looks really unlikely here. 

Away Win draw no bet - Odds 1.67  

I actually think Anderson is a lot tougher than people are giving him credit for. He came back in two breakers against Querry, winning 1 and losing the other 11-9. I have watched him a lot (being a Saffer), and he is definitely tougher than he was before injury. You can see he has been working with sports psychologist.
Nadal has lost the 1st set three times during this tournament, and Anderson has a far better serve than any of those players ...
 lost 4-6 Daniel
lost 6-7 Mayer
lost 4-6 to del Potro
It's also much tougher to figure out where someone is serving, early on in the match. You get a read as you see more and more serves. SO for me, if Anderson is to win a set, I think it is set 1.
Anderson to win set 1 is 2.76 which is my bet.
 
 
 

Not a Woman's semi final day to remember in my opinion. 6-1 0-6 7-5 is an odd scoreline, and 6-1 6-2 is a hiding.
Looking at the Anderson matchup, I can't see Anderson losing his serve more than once in this match. He is serving like a monster (in the 130's is huge), and can then be really aggressive on his return games. I see at least 1 set going to a breaker,   and say a break of serve in the other 3 sets  .
If Anderson wins in 4 you will prob see a scoreline something like 7-6 6-3 4-6 6-4
Looking at the over 38.5 games at odds around 1.72
 

Even tough my prediction won, I was really not impressed by EVerton. They really showed very little and were dominated by 10 men. How are they not able to pass the ball around ? These are professionals, and the only plan they had was to hoof it down the flanks and hope for the best !
 
I expected more craft and skill from them...
 

Man CIty v Everton
Monday night football opens with a bang. A huge fixture, but where is the bet value and the smart money going ? 

City look impressive. They have quality in abundance. The bench looks ridiculously strong. However, the bottom line is that you can only put 11 players on the field at once. 

Man for man Everton don't match up badly. They need to start believing that they belong with the big boys. Ditch their inferiority complex, play well and hold your own. 

You gain respect and you develop your own inner identity and confidence. Rooney was brought in to guide, help confidence, and change the mindset. 

Everton have to keep the game tight and be patient. An open game will not help their cause ! They have a more than decent squad, and mentally, they now have to step up and believe. Excellent signings and players have a real opportunity to shine. Do you step up or fold ? What an opportunity, that Ross Barkley must be cursing on missing and not being part of. 

Keep the game tight and compact, frustrate City and then see what happens. They need to pile forward on free kicks and set pieces. These will be the best opportunities for goals. 

Away Double chance (Win/draw) - Odds 3.6 

If you stick with Middlesbrough and Cardiff  (at home) throughout the season, you will come out ahead. Middlesbrough is defensively the best team in the Championship by miles. And it is no fluke, they got better year on year for the last 3 or 4 years. You go consistently with Middlesbrough WIN TO NIL or NO TO BTTS against the bottom 17 teams at home, you will win  over the season.
Teams like Burton and Bolton are going to get hammered, especially away from home. 
Stay away from the average stuff, in the middle of the table (rank 8 to 17), especially away from home. These are the really inconsistent teams and are a betting minefield. Betting on these teams will empty your pocket !

I am not sure what Hughes is trying to do at Stoke (maybe get himself fired), but their squad looks weak. They have had quite a clear out, and he is reasonably priced to be first Premier League manager fired this season (got some competition though). What turns me off here, is just how bad Stoke play at the beginning of a season. It seems to take them 3 home games to wake up.
2014 lost first two to Villa and Leicester   
2015  lost first two to Liverpool and WBA   | 2 points from their first 3 away games
2016  lost first two to Man City (1-4) and Tottenham (0-4)  | 2 points from their first 4 away games
 
Would'nt touch Stoke with a barge pole here. These guys are still on holiday !

I am not sure what Hughes is trying to do at Stoke (maybe get himself fired), but their squad looks weak. They have had quite a clear out, and he is reasonably priced to be first Premier League manager fired this season (got some competition though). What turns me off here, is just how bad Stoke play at the beginning of a season. It seems to take them 3 home games to wake up.
2014 lost first two to Villa and Leicester   
2015  lost first two to Liverpool and WBA   | 2 points from their first 3 away games
2016  lost first two to Man City (1-4) and Tottenham (0-4)  | 2 points from their first 4 away games
 
Would'nt touch Stoke with a barge pole here. These guys are still on holiday !

Had the match over 39.5 so I am happy. Strangely inconsistent from him though...

I am not a big backer of woman's tennis, but  I like  
Carla Suarez Navarro to win her match at evens. She absolutely destroyed Bouchard, by just hitting her off the court. 1 and 1 is a hiding in the last 2 sets. She will come into this game with some serious momentum and belief.
 Jerzy Janowics v Lucas Poullie  over 39.5 games  at 8/11 . Poullie is a grinder and a fighter, not unused to long matches. Not all that happy on grass, and it should result in a long close match.
 
Peter Gojowczyk v Roberto Bautista-Agut   under 35.5 at evens.   Agut is really solid against most players except the top 8 where he battles. He is very consistent/solid, and has more than enough game to win this in straight sets.
As a low priced banker today, I would go for Kevin Anderson. He showed some real toughness and served bazooka's all day against Verdasco in the last round.
 

Such a strange match. I remember as a junior playing in an under 16 tournament. I won the first 17 points of a match. 4-0 15 love. My opponent hits a net cord, it rolls along the net for 2 meters and drops over. The guy never missed another shot. Beat me 6-4 6-0. Konta relaxed completely after 1st set, and the momentum went away.
Been on crutches for 2 weeks after tearing my achilles (playing tennis in running shoes, moron).
I was expecting closer in the Kyrigos match. Maybe I bet against him, because I can't stand that hole

Such a strange match. I remember as a junior playing in an under 16 tournament. I won the first 17 points of a match. 4-0 15 love. My opponent hits a net cord, it rolls along the net for 2 meters and drops over. The guy never missed another shot. Beat me 6-4 6-0. Konta relaxed completely after 1st set, and the momentum went away.
Been on crutches for 2 weeks after tearing my achilles (playing tennis in running shoes, moron).
I was expecting closer in the Kyrigos match. Maybe I bet against him, because I can't stand that hole

Two matches I like today.
I think Verdasco has a decent chance in a 3 set sprint against Zverev at 3.5
I also fancy Philipp Kolschrieber against  Kyrigos

I think Liverpool could be in trouble tonight.
They have the strangest away record in the premier league.
Very good against top opponents. Against the top 7 teams (excluding themselves), they are undefeated on the road. 4 wins 3 draws (15 points from 21 available). Compare this to Arsenal who have taken 1 point from 21 against the top 8 away (3-1 Chelsea, 2-0 SPurs, 3-1 Liverpool, 2-1 Man City, 1-1 Man United, 2-1 Everton. 3-1 WBA)
This shows that Liverpool are setting up very well against solid teams. Their problem comes when trying to make the running to beat the average to poor teams, that are playing defensively. They don't know how to do it. Bournemouth (4-3), Leceister (3-1), Burnely (2-0), Hull CIty (2-0), SUnderland (2-2) have all had home success against Liverpool. Fergie understood how to break down these defensive teams, and Klopp does'nt understand how to do it, yet.
 
I think the double chance Watford is more than possible here, especially if Liverpool struggle to find an early goal. Small bet on the home win at 6.2 and  2 units on Watford DC at 2.5
 

doing to much stuff here.
 
Bottom line is 6 goals and bet wins by 1/2 time

I was very surprised to see the line up. Really thought he would rest more.
 
Regarding Spurs, wow , are they playing well.
They are attacking their opponents in 4 or 5 different ways.
1) Down the flanks, playing a lot of give-and-go 
2) Through the middle with players running on
3) Through the middle with a target man flicking/laying off to the 2nd runner.
4) Wing-backs bombing down and overlapping on the flanks
They have plans A B C and D and just look brilliant  

Two interesting developments after the midweek games.
Crystal Palace are going to beat Leicester. Leicester have a real chance in the Champions League, and will probably rest 5 players. Their focus is totally on next week. This game means nothing. They are safe from relegation, and have no motivation here. Leicester in the Champions League NEXT WEEK is their once in a lifetime shot !
 
Having watched the Anderlecht v Man United game on Thurs, I gotta say that Man United are just average. It's just unwatchable !
Everything is wrong. Tactics, intensity, desire, work-rate, players. Valencia must have gone down the right side 25 times, and stopped, turned, kicked the ball backwards 23 times. Fellaini just shuffles along, making these useless sideways passes 20 times a game. Ibrahimovic is so slow, like a petrol tanker in the days of sports cars. Does it help United to have a 35 year old leading the line, to the detriment of Martial and Rashford ? Does it really help to play Carrick when his days are also numbered ?
Which players are doing better than expected ? The whole team, from manager to players look slightly lost.  United underwhelm almost every  time they play.
A couple of interesting stats. In last 13 home league games in EPL Man United have the lowest goals per game average (total goals in game / # of games). Their average of 1.69 compares to the highest (Bournemouth 3.61). In 10 of 13 games United have scored 1 goal or less. Compare this to Liverpool who have scored 2 or more in 11 of 13 home games.
United have won 4 of these games. These include wins over  Watford, Sunderland, Middlesbrough (wow great stuff). Forget blaming the strikers. These stats indicate something is wrong with the style of play and the tactics ? Not once this season has Mourinho really gone after the opposition. Give it a go, get stuck in and beat them 5-2 !!! Sure beats the hell out of watching 1 shot at goal every 25 minutes.
I would be really surprised if United got anything against Chelsea. They are miles of the pace !  
Chelsea away win here  at odds of 2.95
 
 
 

Two interesting developments after the midweek games.
Crystal Palace are going to beat Leicester. Leicester have a real chance in the Champions League, and will probably rest 5 players. Their focus is totally on next week. This game means nothing. They are safe from relegation, and have no motivation here. Leicester in the Champions League NEXT WEEK is their once in a lifetime shot !
 
Having watched the Anderlecht v Man United game on Thurs, I gotta say that Man United are just average. It's just unwatchable !
Everything is wrong. Tactics, intensity, desire, work-rate, players. Valencia must have gone down the right side 25 times, and stopped, turned, kicked the ball backwards 23 times. Fellaini just shuffles along, making these useless sideways passes 20 times a game. Ibrahimovic is so slow, like a petrol tanker in the days of sports cars. Does it help United to have a 35 year old leading the line, to the detriment of Martial and Rashford ? Does it really help to play Carrick when his days are also numbered ?
Which players are doing better than expected ? The whole team, from manager to players look slightly lost.  United underwhelm almost every  time they play.
A couple of interesting stats. In last 13 home league games in EPL Man United have the lowest goals per game average (total goals in game / # of games). Their average of 1.69 compares to the highest (Bournemouth 3.61). In 10 of 13 games United have scored 1 goal or less. Compare this to Liverpool who have scored 2 or more in 11 of 13 home games.
United have won 4 of these games. These include wins over  Watford, Sunderland, Middlesbrough (wow great stuff). Forget blaming the strikers. These stats indicate something is wrong with the style of play and the tactics ? Not once this season has Mourinho really gone after the opposition. Give it a go, get stuck in and beat them 5-2 !!! Sure beats the hell out of watching 1 shot at goal every 25 minutes.
I would be really surprised if United got anything against Chelsea. They are miles of the pace !  
Chelsea away win here  at odds of 2.95
 
 
 

Two interesting developments after the midweek games.
Crystal Palace are going to beat Leicester. Leicester have a real chance in the Champions League, and will probably rest 5 players. Their focus is totally on next week. This game means nothing. They are safe from relegation, and have no motivation here. Leicester in the Champions League NEXT WEEK is their once in a lifetime shot !
 
Having watched the Anderlecht v Man United game on Thurs, I gotta say that Man United are just average. It's just unwatchable !
Everything is wrong. Tactics, intensity, desire, work-rate, players. Valencia must have gone down the right side 25 times, and stopped, turned, kicked the ball backwards 23 times. Fellaini just shuffles along, making these useless sideways passes 20 times a game. Ibrahimovic is so slow, like a petrol tanker in the days of sports cars. Does it help United to have a 35 year old leading the line, to the detriment of Martial and Rashford ? Does it really help to play Carrick when his days are also numbered ?
Which players are doing better than expected ? The whole team, from manager to players look slightly lost.  United underwhelm almost every  time they play.
A couple of interesting stats. In last 13 home league games in EPL Man United have the lowest goals per game average (total goals in game / # of games). Their average of 1.69 compares to the highest (Bournemouth 3.61). In 10 of 13 games United have scored 1 goal or less. Compare this to Liverpool who have scored 2 or more in 11 of 13 home games.
United have won 4 of these games. These include wins over  Watford, Sunderland, Middlesbrough (wow great stuff). Forget blaming the strikers. These stats indicate something is wrong with the style of play and the tactics ? Not once this season has Mourinho really gone after the opposition. Give it a go, get stuck in and beat them 5-2 !!! Sure beats the hell out of watching 1 shot at goal every 25 minutes.
I would be really surprised if United got anything against Chelsea. They are miles of the pace !  
Chelsea away win here  at odds of 2.95
 
 
 

Everyone is bad mouthing Arsenal, but I think you have to give Palace a lot of credit. Game plan and tactics were brilliant. Work rate excellent. Palace are a decent side. They just had a terrible time under Pardew. It's amazing to see Zaha coming on. He has 9 assists this season. AT 12.5million he was Fergie's gift to Moyes (who wouldn't know talent if it hit him on the forehead), who never played him. It's a pity that Allerdyce crapped the bed at England, because I think they could have done things. Southgate, come on, wet behind the ears.
I think the Man United v Chelsea game will be interesting for the following reasons...
1) Mourinho lost twice to Chelsea this season. Shown up in the league game. It has to be burning him.
2) He would love to throw a spnner in their Championship ambitions, Especially to those guys that betrayed him last season.
3) He needs to see how far Man United are off the pace, are they able to play with these guys ?
I don't think you can make a bet, until you see the Thursday night Europa. If United score early, he will take players off, and close up. That game determines a lot about the starting 11 on Sunday.  
 
Again I go with the HT/FT Spurs win over Bournemouth. At the moment no team is playing better than Spurs. They are dominant at home, and opponents cannot stop/contain their wingbacks / fullbacks. Bournemouth have taken 6 points out of a possible 30, and I think their troubles continue.
 
I think the 1.75 is a decent price for the HT/FT HW.