amity

No, it's crazy how fast these players go in and out of form. He was useless and Pengfei played good really. Atleast Jimmy turned up for a level day. Hopefully tomorrow brings a profit. I still think a big price has a chance of going far in this event. 

I'm going to take Clayton as a bet for the Premier League. I'm not entirely convinced he should even have been picked but I know that he is determined to show his worth because he was saying so prior to it, at The Masters. If we look back last year at this event, when it was "mini-tournaments" each week, Claytons average was 97.86. He Lost to Cullen in the semi-final, who then went on to miss winning the PL by 1mm. I think at 10/1 he is worth a bet. Not forgetting he also won the Premier League the year prior, in 2021. As a debut. Infact, he is the only player other than MVG to win this, in this field of 8.
2pts e/w J.Clayton to win Premier League 10/1 betvictor
 

What I'd be looking at today is Martic-Parks. Parks had some truly impressive victories at the end of the last season, but it's hard to gauge where she's at right now, as she wasn't impressive in Australia and as her first round win was a bit suspect as well. Martic is still the better player you have to feel, so perhaps this really isn't the 50/50 match that the bookies want us to believe.

First to 5 here and I reckon McGill gets over the line without the need for a deciding leg. He beat Pengfei 4-0 in their most recent match 3 months ago and looks to be going well. Won 5-0 and 5-1 in qualification and made the Quarter Finals of the Grand Prix, losing out in a deciding leg in a match that perhaps he should have won on chances he had. Since a poor World Championship he has won 10 out of his last 13 matches, with losses to Neil Robertson and the other 2 against Murphy. 
The other one that I am going for, and it's not my kinda bet at all normally, but I'm going to take Jimmy White (-1.5 handicap) to beat Peng Yisong. Normally, I would be taking White on with a young chinese player but White is playing decent at the moment and has beaten Gould (5-2) and Mark Joyce (5-3) in qualification for this event. He also beat Steadman 4-0 at The Welsh. I reckon he wins this game with some frames in hand.
2.5pts A.McGill (-1.5 frame handicap) to beat Pengfei 4/5 bet365
2.5pts J.White (-1.5 frames handicap) to beat P.Yisong evens bet365
 

Impossible to please everyone, but definitely agree that van den Bergh is lucky to be there - don’t think the PDC wanted it to be too Brit-centric so had to pick another European player, although you could definitely argue Noppert deserved it more than DVDB. Humphries must be very disappointed to miss out after the year he’s had, Cullen was within 1mm of winning it last year so is another who is  pretty unlucky, and the European Champion Ross Smith doesn’t get a chance either. 
Time to either increase the field size or put down some set criteria for qualification.
 

so, with no Golf, Snooker, Darts or Cricket to speak of, I've taken another look at The German Masters which get going Wednesday 3rd feb at The Tempodome in Berlin. Quite a small ranking event really and as eluded to above, the only "big names" this week really are Neil Robertson, Kyren Wilson and Jack Lisowski. Lisowski is very much due a ranking win but at 4/1 for him to beat Anda, Yisong, Guodong or Zhengyi and then beat Kyren Wilson AND Neil Robertson (potentially) plus he has to beat his own demons of that first win, you can see 4/1 is no value at all.
No value on Neil, no value on Ali Carter, who has a mistake in him but yet still is single digits. Walden looked absolutely terrible last time we saw him and yet he is coming out at 11s. For me, it's all about the outsiders in this event. I'll take 2 from top, 2 from bottom and little quarter point ews on Wakelin and Zhengyi. Purely for one reason. He (Wakelin) has made alot of money from the Shoot Out. He got top break too and so he has no worries whatsoever coming into this event. With that kind of freedom, this is one event and likely the only event all season that I'll give him a half point e/w shot.
2pts e/w A.McGill to win German Masters 20/1 willhill
------------------------------------------------------
0.5pts e/w Guodong to win German Masters 50/1 betfred
0.5pts e/w Yupeng to win German Masters 50/1 bet365
0.5pts e/w Milkins to win German Masters 50/1 bet365
------------------------------------------------------
0.25pts e/w Zhengyi to win German Masters 100/1 coral
0.25pts e/w Wakelin to win German Masters 125/1 bet365
 

I don't think Rybakina moves well, but with both of them the game quality is dictated by the serve. It's such a different game to that of the average woman player, who battles to hold serve.
Not a blowout either way, but Sabalenka has not lost a match all year, and has not dropped a set this tournament. She also owns a 3-0 record against Rybakina.
 
 

Really nothing in it, just a couple of points here and there. Was very impressed with Sabalenka's serve. It held up, except for 1 double on match point. In previous years she would have served 10 doubles in the 3rd set.
Probably with Swiatek, these two will form a very tough trio, and could dominate woman's tennis for years. Maybe just below are Garcia and Badosa.
The balls are quite an issue at the AO. Dunlop are making a strange ball that fluffs up quickly (4 games). Big servers don't like it, as it slows the ball down through the air. But Djoko loves it. Just is perfect for his game.
I am not a big fan of players who don't work hard on their game. Hey, you are a professional. You owe it to yourself to really work hard and improve constantly. Look at the players who have stayed similar in the last few years ...
Medvedev (game hastotally stagnated and could even have gone backwards). De Minaur , Ruud, Rublev, Hurkacz, Cilic, Norrie, Berrettini, Carreno Busta. Their games are already maxed out. 
But I like the up and comers. Tiafoe, Fritz, Alcaraz, Rune. Alcaraz is really a rough diamond. His game is so raw, and when he smoothes it out and gets rid of the rough edges he will be phenomenal. He is #1 and he has enormous scope for improvement.There is so much more to come from them. And I gotta include Tsitsipas in this group.
He is bigger and stronger, serving really well, backhand is better, net-play is developing, and moving very well for a big guy. Always had a couple of emotional issues, where he could lose his concentration and focus, but you can see the effort he has put in. 
Tsitsipas can cause an upset. It was strange yesterday to see Djokovic 5-1 in the 1st set and then barley get over the line. He is vulnerable, and the crowd will be more for Tsitsipas than him. I definitely think that at worst Tsitsipas wins a set. For me a small bet on Tsitsipas to win at 38 to 10 ... can't get too involved, have a mini tennis tournament tomorrow myself.
 

Price is not feeling great at moment. Looks to have some man flu. Here is what I'll be going for. Side note, Ross Smith at 66/1 is madness.
2pts Clayton to win Masters 12/1 paddypower
-----------------------------------------------------
1pt e.w D.Noppert to win Masters 33/1 bet365 
1pt e/w R.Smith to win Masters 66/1 bet365
--------------------------------------------------------
0.5pts e/w Dobey to win Masters 100/1 bet365
0.5pts e/w Clemens to win Masters 100/1 paddypower 

I honestly have a different opinion on the women's. Rybakina seems far more reliable mentally, she has a GS title under her belt, and her motions, service or otherwise, look less likely to break down than Sabalenka's. The DF problem has been mitigated somewhat, but it most certainly hasn't been eliminated, at least not from what I saw in her match against Bencic.

Djoko has swept all before him. Only set lost was against a qualifier in round 2. Closest opponent he has played (in style to Paul), would be Gregor Dimitrov and he won 7-6 6-4 6-3. I expect a close 1st set, and then a similar score line here.
 
I do like Sabalenka in the woman's. Only thing that was holding her back was the crazy double faults and she has worked hard and fixed it. She has the potential to win 2  majors this year. WImbledon will suite her serve and the US open will be similar to the Aussie. For me she is a better athlete than Rybakina, and she will enjoy the pace on the ball. Her serve has the potential to be as dominant a weapon as Serena's was for all those years.  

I managed to get effective 58.8 for Tommy Paul to win it all before the Tsitsipas-Khachanov match started. Strangely the market seemed to assume Khachanov being a significantly better player than Paul which I don't think is true.
Such a bet as well as Tommy Paul beating Djokovic at 14.x (or even a bit lower) might still be value as we cannot completely ignore injury concerns. I don't like the idea of betting on Paul to win a set, though, as some of such matches will have Djokovic suffring from injury and some of such bets would be void due to Djokovic retiring. 
By the way, I don't think at all of Paul being a great server or a weaker version of Fritz. Fritz has a much better serve and is good at hitting powerful winners whereas Paul is better at defending and much better at creating angles (which could trouble an injured Djokovic).
Yeah, betting on Paul is largely betting on Djokovic getting somewhat injured, the most likely result is 3-0 Djokovic.

I think he might be able to win a set but it's really hard to imagine Tommy Paul beating Djokovic. Well, perhaps only if Novak's injury flares up again as you said.

It's Djokovic's version of the Karate kid.
Wax on (De Minaur), Wax off (Rublev) ...

I gotta write this because I don't like Djoko. 
For me Rublev is a better version of De Minaur. But quite a similar game style. But realistically none of these players (maybe Khachanov) can go toe-to-toe with Djoko from the baseline. They all try and take him on in a game style that is so suited for his style. Was hoping that Tiafoe (just dynamic and different) or Fritz (with the huge server) would get there because I think they have the ability and  weapons to take him deep. The others, I don't give them much of a chance.
You know exactly what's coming from Rublev. Same old game that probably fails. At some point he's gonna get so frustrated and go bananas. Not if, just when. If Djoko plays similar to how he played against de Minaur, then this could be a blow out.   For me Djoko with too many guns, slowly constricts and then finishes Rublev off.  I like the under 35.5 games here, in what I think is a straight sets 6-4 6-3 6-2/3  stroll for Djoko.

Would have been better if you forgot to bet it.
For me Aussie open has been a bad betting experience. Feel kind of cursed, starting in the 1st round with Berrettini, who missed an egg on match point, going on to Kokkinakis with 2 match points, Wawrinka blowing it against Molcan, onto Tiafoe (6-1 up in the 4th set tiebreak), Fritz losing to Popyrin, Hurkacz being 5-5 15-40 up in the 5th and losing to Korda, Alexandrova playing beyond awful, De Minaur reeling off 10 of 12 games just as I cashed out. and the cherry on the top , Pegula, who just played terrible tennis. She got annoyed and gave up which is really really poor.
There were so few underdog betting opportunities for my software, and a sample size of 9 matches is useless. Could win 7 and think you have won the lottery, or lose 7 and feel that it does not work. Sometimes just easier to make a strategic withdrawal (called a retreat) , sleep in late and just observe the freak results show from afar. I'll be happy when the Aussie open is done.
Absolutely no doubt in my mind, that lower quality events, have far bigger scope, and way more opportunities for betting on underdogs. Nobody really cares when they come to play a 125K event. It is just better than the practice courts, and have players ranked between 50 and 140 opens up all kinds of possibilities.

Pegula loss caused me dearly on my accumulator with football and basketball bets! (Already won last night)

Well, what a tournament, eh!

I'm really hoping that Pegula can deliver for me in the last match for the bet to come in, and she really should get the job done against Azarenka, who was struggling somewhat in the last round, and who I don't really rate in the top tier anymore. I was quite surprised by how easy Sabalenka had it yesterday, but it's worth noting that her DF problem did creep back in a little bit after not being present in the previous matches.
What's even crazier is the H2H between the two - 5-1 for Vekic! Granted, most of those were before Sabalenka was actually good, but still, it's not entirely without relevance.

I like the Pegula bet. I think she has a great chance of winning the whole thing

I swear I had a 2 pound bet on Rune to win, onto Paul and de Minaur to beat Djoko. Doomed him, but he had so many chances it was insane. To lose your serve to love serving at 6-5 final set is a terrible effort. To blow the tiw breaker from a dominant position also a shocker (thanks Tiafoe 6-1 up and he blew that breaker and the match as well).
Boy, did Djokovic dismantle De Minaur. Absolutely smashed him. That pointless running after every ball, with no real plan, and such a limited game, totally shown up. Is his coach Darren Cahill ... who also could not get a tune out of Simona Halep? These people keep showing up with the same (limited) weapons expecting things to change. Change the plan. Honestly, it's moronic.
For me the only two players that have the power to ward off the curse of 'neilovan' are Pegula and Pliskova. Both have been unbelievable, dispatching opponents with relentless ease.
Pegula looks like she finally believes she belongs. I think if you had to meet her, she would be quite down to earth. She has a maturity and understanding of her own situation and game ATM. I think she sends Azarenka on her way in straights. She has demolished her opponent in 6 out of 8 sets played, winning all in straight sets.
Pliskova looks absolutely fit, lean and mean and is playing super tennis. Doesn't matter what your age is. That feeling of being super fit is amazing for the mind and body. I think she destroys Linette (who really moves badly to the backhand side, and was a bundle of nerves against Alexandrova. ).  Open up the court to the forehand, and then take advantage of the backhand. I think you see that pattern all match. Under 20 games here. Just too much power hitting from Pliskova. Similar to Pegula dominating her opponents in 5/8 sets and not dropping a set so far.
For me those two will be in the final.
Ostapenko does not convince me at all. Has  had a very easy passage through, with no top quality opponents (Yastremska, Bondar, Baindl, Gauff (who was playing poorly in my opinion  ... she can't win anything until she sorts out her forehand.  At the elite level her forehand is as obvious a bad shot as Berettinis backhand) . Ostapenko went through a stage where she lost a lot of sets quite badly, and I think a repeat is on the cards here. Rybakina has a crazy weapon in the woman's game that so few players have. Her serve is a dominant 1-2 setup weapon and if it works (no reason why it should not) its a done deal. Once she is winning that serve easily, she can go to town on the return games. Then the game flows and a demolition happens.
For me the only tricky match is Vekic and Sabalenka. Will Sabalenka's serve disintegrate when the pressure is on? I think she has been working hard on it. That weird open racquet in the middle of the motion (behind the back) is gone.  To make a slight change like that requires excellent coaches, and a mountain of practice. Serve 500 serves every day for a month, and see how that shot improves (why don't woman pros's do that?) Practice and muscle memory makes the serve so much better and far more repeatable.  Sabalenka's serve holds up here and she overpowers Vekic.
from the Guardian...https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/23/aryna-sabalenka-serves-up-a-storm-at-australian-open-after-biomechanics-help
“I was, in that moment, open for whatever. I was just like, ‘Please, someone help me to fix this f--k--g serve,’” said Sabalenka."
 
I got two phone calls today. One from Pliskova and another from Pegula. Both said they will pay me not to bet on them, and pleaded for me to remove any money I had staked on them. Both said they are avid Punters lounge visitors. They both exhibited a lot of desperation and were really pleading with me to bet $2 on Sabalenka ... ???

wow korda is playing some insane tennis

gets going tonight. Not a huge event by any means. Just going to go with 3. 1 from the top, which is going to be Luke Humphries again. I said to myself that if he was 10/1 + then it was worth the bet. I thought Smith was abit rusty in the first couple of rounds last week until he got to the final. Perhaps Humphries can take advantage if that is again the case. He would then need to beat MVG/Wright to make the final. 11/1 just about right for me.
Other 2 that I'm taking is Clayton again. Went well last week with averages of 103.66 in a 6-0 whitewash and 98.12 in the loss over Price. He started like a train in that match against Price though and Price was just on it. Won with 101 in the end. He would face Price again likely, in the semi-finals but he has beaten him plenty of times before. Finally, just to have a nice big juicy price, I'll be having a punt on Razma. I reckon he could beat Van Den Bergh tonight and then would face Gerwyn Price. If Price is back on form (and I guess we'll see if that's the case tonight) then it will be a hard task but if he beats Price then fingets crossed we'll see a Razma/Clayton semi-final. Worth a dabble at big odds.

1.5pts e/w Clayton to win Nordic Masters 9/1 paddypower
1.5pts e/w Humphries to win Nordic Masters 11/1 bet365
0.5pts e/w Razma to win Nordic Masters 100/1 paddypower

Yeah, it's weird. He just decides on the day if it's worth it to him. Thing Is he needs ranking points now so expect a good Welsh open from him. Again, if he cares about ranking points. 

Good analysis mate. Personally I don't think Tiafoe is mentally strong enough to beat Djoker on the big stage, but I agree that he should be making the quarters.
Sinner always surprises me, for a guy who hasn't got the same kind of physique as most of the rest of the top tier, he still manages to compete well with them and against them for the most part. 
Of the three, Fritz is the one who I think could challenge Novak, he's getting stronger every year and I expect he will win a few GSs over the next five years or so.
Still though, it's hard to look past the Serb, it'll take a serious performance from any of the aforementioned to overcome him.