beaker1

The Skybet Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) – 1:30PM
The opening two-mile contest is often run at a furious gallop, and it has often paid to sit in behind any frontrunner in recent years. Constitution Hill, Appreciate It, Shishkin, and Klassical Dream have all come from off the pace to win in the past three renewals. Leading trainer, Willie Mullins has a fantastic record in the race and has taken the coveted prize back across the Irish Sea on no fewer than seven occasions. Statistics show that horses need to have run at least twice so far this season and no winner in the last twenty renewals has won with any headgear (cheekpieces, visor or tongue-tie).
 
Year
Horse
Age
Trainer
Jockey
2022
Constitution Hill
5
Nicky Henderson
N De Boinville
2021
Appreciate It
7
Willie Mullins
P Townend
2020
Shishkin
6
Nicky Henderson
N De Boinville
2019
Klassical Dream
5
Willie Mullins
R Walsh
2018
Summerville Boy
6
Tom George
N Fehily
2017
Labaik
6
Gordon Elliott
J Kennedy
2016
Altior
6
Nicky Henderson
N De Boinville
2015
Douvan
5
Willie Mullins
R Walsh
2014
Vautour
5
Willie Mullins
R Walsh
2013
Champagne Fever
6
Willie Mullins
R Walsh
2012
Cinders & Ashes
5
Donald McCain
J Maguire
                                                                                                                      FACILE VEGA (155)– WILLIE MULLINS & PAUL TOWNEND
Was far too keen for his own good when last seen in the Tattersalls Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown. Uncharacteristically he made a few errors and folded tamely two from home. The jockey came in for criticism and justifiably so. Willie Mullins is a master at bringing the good ones back and being a son of Quevega, this boy is all talent. He is a previous winner here as he took the champion bumper last season. Stats are against him but he will take some beating if back on song.
MARINE NATIONALE (150)– BARRY CONNELL & MICHAEL O’SULLIVAN
Hasn’t been seen since winning the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse back in December where he beat Irish Point by a head. That form on its own is not spectacular and the runner up has been readily brushed aside on a couple of occasions since. The stable think the world of him though and he comes here unbeaten. This looks to be the toughest field he has ever faced and a lack of experience at Cheltenham may count against him too.
IL ETAIT TEMPS (155) – WILLIE MULLINS & DANNY MULLINS
Caused at massive shock at the Dublin Racing Festival by finishing some twenty lengths ahead of his much preferred stablemate Facile Vega. He travelled supremely well from off a strong pace and gathered up his rivals some way from home. He ran on to record a near ten length victory over Inthepocket. He is certainly improving at a rate of knots and a fast run race could well set this up for him yet again. Four previous winners of the Tattersalls Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown have followed up here at Cheltenham within the last decade including Champagne Fever, Vautour, Klassical Dream and Appreciate It. If he has strengthened up again, he will prove a force to be reckoned with.
TAHMURAS (142) – PAUL NICHOLLS & HARRY COBDEN
Tahmuras is a proven Grade One winner and looks to be riding on the crest of a wave for Paul Nicholls. Unbeaten in three starts since going hurdling, the six-year-old looks to be the Ditcheat handlers best chance of winning this race since Al Ferof back in 2011. The form of that most recent race has been franked by Nemean Lion who won a Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle just the other day and he certainly has strong each way claims.
HIGH DEFINITION (UNRATED) – JOSEPH O’BRIEN & JJ SLEVIN
He won on his debut for Joseph O’Brien in a pleasing fashion and got the better of Jetara. He was upped in grade but made costly errors and unseated his rider in no uncertain terms in the Tattersalls Novices’ Hurdle. He would really need to brush up his jumping and he departed too early to determine how much of a say he would have had in the finish. This course takes no prisoners and any flaws in his ability will be found out. This looks too big an ask at this stage.
CHASING FIRE (136) – OLLY MURPHY & AIDAN COLEMAN
Has been an impressive winner of all three starts so far this season. His wins have all been at a much lower level than any of his rivals and the form has been badly let down by the runner up subsequently. He is still open to any amount of improvement though and if he was trained by Henderson or Mullins he would be a much shorter price. Whatever he does here he will learn from and he can go onto bigger and brighter things next year.
RARE EDITION (138) – CHARLIE LONGSDON & SAM TWISTON-DAVIES
He had looked progressive earlier in the year but his tendency to jump right got him turned over at Huntingdon last time. If he does that here he will be in big trouble early on. Having been beaten in listed company last time he really does look up against it here. Charlie Longsdon has only ever trained six winners at this course since 2011 and all have been at a much lower level. Rare Edition may be one of the best he has ever trained but that still doesn’t look good enough,
DIVERGE (UNRATED) – WILLIE MULLINS & PADDY MULLINS
Was a wide margin winner at Punchestown when last seen out at the end of January. Despite beating the likes of Mon Couer and Slanagaibhgoleir, nothing from the race has come out to frank the form which is very disappointing. This looks a lot more difficult than the opposition he faced last time and both Danny Mullins and Paul Townend prefer their chances over him. That has to say a lot and he is readily passed over.
INTHEPOCKET (145) – HENRY DE BROMHEAD & RACHAEL BLACKMORE
Was no match for Il Etait Temps in the Tattersalls Novices’ Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. The yard has been struggling for form all year so it was a positive performance. Connections left it to the very last minute to declare him for this but he should be able to make the frame if further improvement comes. He relishes testing ground so if the rain continues to come it will bring him into the picture further.
DOCTOR BRAVO (140) – GORDON ELLIOTT & DAVY RUSSELL
Has yet to finish outside the first three places in any start and lost his maiden status over hurdles at Down Royal back in January. He was then upped in class into Grade 3 company and he ran well finishing third to stablemate Fil D’Or. He would take to take another massive leap forward to think that he could be in with troubling the best of these. Likely to run well for a while before fading in the closing stages.
DARK RAVEN (145) – WILLIE MULLINS & DARYL JACOB
Was perhaps given a little too much to do last time when beaten by both Il Etait Temps and Inthepocket at the Dublin Racing Festival. He looked like taking the runner-up spot but fluffed his chance at the second last flight of hurdles. A stronger gallop is likely to be on the agenda here and that may well suit him better. Not out of this by any means and could well be the proverbial dark horse in the line-up.
STRONG LEADER (133) – OLLY MURPHY & SEAN BOWEN
Was runner-up to Encanto Bruno in a bumper around here back in October. Since then he has gone on a three race unbeaten run winning a further two bumpers at Uttoxeter and Aintree. He also made a winning debut over hurdles at Southwell but this will take a massive leap forward. The yard are in fantastic form though and no surprise if he defies his likely long odds to pass a few of these when they have cried enough.
FENNOR CROSS (134) – JOHN MCCONNELL & SIMON TORRENS
Is a smart dual purpose performer and has already scored twice over this course and distance including in Grade 2 company. He has not been seen in action since mid-November, but he has won after similar breaks in the past so is unlikely to be found wanting for fitness. If the major players fail to run their race he could well take full advantage. He is interesting all the same and he will likely have better days ahead of him.
PALACE BOY (125) – FERGAL O’BRIEN & PADDY BRENNAN
Was firmly put in his place by Luccia in a Novices’ Hurdle last month. That is a level below what is required here and he looks completely out of his depth. Will be truly found out in this company.
Ante-post Prices
7/4 Facile Vega , 7/2 Marine Nationale , 5/1 Il Etait Temps , 8/1 Tahmuras , 12/1 High Definition , 16/1 Diverge , 20/1 Dark Raven , 20/1 Chasing Fire , 20/1 Inthepocket , 20/1 Doctor Bravo , 25/1 Rare Edition, 33/1 Strong Leader , 50/1 Fennor Cross , 150/1 Palace Boy
Key Trends
9 of the past 10 winners won last time out.
6 of the past 8 winners were rated 153+
8 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson.
SUMMARY
IL ETAIT TEMPS could well be the answer to this tricky puzzle. There was no fluke about the manner of his last won in top class company during the Dublin Racing Festival. With Facile Vega now with a cloud hanging over him following his blow-out in the same race he will have competition for the lead here and that could put him in an uncomfortable position. The winner of the Tattersalls Novices’ Hurdle has won this four times in the last decade and all were trained by Willie Mullins. Paul Nicholls can take comfort in the fact that he has a Grade One winner in the shape of Tahmuras. His recent win was given a significant boost at Kelso quite recently and he may outrun his double priced odds.
Selection: IL ETAIT TEMPS
Edited 1 minute ago by Tumbleweed King (see edit history)

my opinion on the race, I’d happily oppose Marine Nationale. While Barry Connell has been bullish to say the least, he’s not been seen for a long time which would be a big negative and I don’t think that was a vintage Royal Bond. Facile Vega ran an awful race at the DRF and while he more than likely rates the best of these, you’d still be taking a serious gamble backing him. Il Etait Temps surely represents some value and could even drift on the day, he beat Facile Vega all ends up and would be the one I’d side with at the front of the market. Dark Raven would prefer some cut in the ground, and should the rain come he may fill the places at a double figure price if they opt to come here. The English challenge is headed by Tahmuras, while Olly Murphy seemed quite sweet on Chasing Fire.  

my opinion on the race, I’d happily oppose Marine Nationale. While Barry Connell has been bullish to say the least, he’s not been seen for a long time which would be a big negative and I don’t think that was a vintage Royal Bond. Facile Vega ran an awful race at the DRF and while he more than likely rates the best of these, you’d still be taking a serious gamble backing him. Il Etait Temps surely represents some value and could even drift on the day, he beat Facile Vega all ends up and would be the one I’d side with at the front of the market. Dark Raven would prefer some cut in the ground, and should the rain come he may fill the places at a double figure price if they opt to come here. The English challenge is headed by Tahmuras, while Olly Murphy seemed quite sweet on Chasing Fire.  

Well past experiences say it is quite possible but i once watched a video on the drainage system at Cheltenham and have been to the festival on many occasions and seen the drain off through many ditches, culverts and streams and the amount of water running away was quite impressive even when the weather was dry. One year it hammered it down all week but by the Tuesday the ground had changed from soft to heavy on the Thursday to good by Tuesday. If the snow hasn't melted so can't drain away you might assume that racing would be abandoned anyway so i might suggest Heavy would be very unusual and soft more likely due to the current weather forecast. One further consideration is that it has been a very dry winter and the water tables are very low so have plenty of capacity to soak up the water even without taking the drainage systems into account. Personally i am going to assume soft at worst when considering form and selections up until Sunday or Monday where we will have a more definitive forecast. Finally, A bigger problem for punters is that if it rains on the day/s the ground cutting up will maybe have a significant influence but at least with that scenario we can adjust our thinking day by day.

my opinion on the race, I’d happily oppose Marine Nationale. While Barry Connell has been bullish to say the least, he’s not been seen for a long time which would be a big negative and I don’t think that was a vintage Royal Bond. Facile Vega ran an awful race at the DRF and while he more than likely rates the best of these, you’d still be taking a serious gamble backing him. Il Etait Temps surely represents some value and could even drift on the day, he beat Facile Vega all ends up and would be the one I’d side with at the front of the market. Dark Raven would prefer some cut in the ground, and should the rain come he may fill the places at a double figure price if they opt to come here. The English challenge is headed by Tahmuras, while Olly Murphy seemed quite sweet on Chasing Fire.  

12:10 - Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed Race) 
There is clear favourite for this mares’ novices’ hurdle as Mrs Hyde sets a good standard for the others to aim at in the Listed contest. Trained by Brian Ellison, she was a useful performer in bumpers as she finished runner-up at Listed level and has taken very well to hurdling this year. The seven-year-old has won four of her five races since being sent over hurdles in July, recording back-to-back Listed wins last month. The first of those victories came on good ground at Kempton where she got the better of Paul Nicholls’ Fidelio Vallis, before she then stepped out of novice company to put up a big performance at Wetherby’s Charlie Hall meeting. The ground may have been unfavourable for Verdana Blue that day, but Mrs Hyde was always doing enough to see off Nicky Henderson’s 155-rated mare despite having to concede weight. Mrs Hyde is a worthy favourite to make it a hat-trick on Saturday, but she does have to carry a penalty and is up against some unexposed rivals.

Irish raider Politesse has to be respected as she ran a good race in a Grade 3 on only her second start over hurdles last month. Trained by Mrs Lorna Fowler, she got off the mark in bumpers at the third attempt in February before making a winning debut over hurdles the following month at Thurles. The form of that maiden was boosted last weekend as the second, Gordon Elliott’s Fakiera, won a Grade 3 at Navan on Sunday. Politesse was then upped straight to Grade 3 level herself for her seasonal reappearance at Down Royal last month and the six-year-old arguably shaped best of all in the race. She travelled nicely through the contest but maybe the lack of race-fitness paid in the end as she finished fifth after not being fluent at the final obstacle. She was only beaten three lengths though and could go well making the trip over to Newbury this weekend.

However, a chance is taken on ESTELLE MA BELLE to build on her first run in Britain and take the step up to Listed company in her stride for Paul Nicholls. She began her career in France on the Flat where she won twice and ran in a Group 1 back in 2017, even if she may have finished down the field. She was then recruited to go jumping for Willie Mullins and after an absence of over two years she had one run in Ireland where she finished second in a maiden at the Galway Festival. However, ESTELLE MA BELLE was subsequently switched to the Paul Nicholls’ yard and after another year off she made a winning comeback at Ffos Las last month having had wind surgery. She did not jump fluently during the mares’ maiden but showed that she has a big engine as she still managed to win easily by five lengths. ESTELLE MA BELLE falls into the ‘could be anything’ category and if she can brush up on her jumping then she could put up a big performance on Saturday.
Another interesting contender is Galice Macalo who has won her two starts this season for Mrs Jane Williams. She has not been the easiest of rides so far in her career as she can race very keenly, but she is definitely talented as she was able to make all in her two races last month. Last time out the four-year-old was reluctant to even line-up at Stratford, but she went on to win the novice contest comfortably by eleven lengths. Galice Macalo could have the ability to compete at Listed level but her style of racing might make it difficult for her now up against much tougher opposition.
advice:

ESTELLE MA BELLE 1pt E/W @ 11/2 (General)
12:40 – The Ladbrokes John Francome Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 
This should be a classy novices’ chase with many of these having fine form over the smaller obstacles and last year’s connections are back again to defend their crowns. 

Danny Whizzbang took this race with ease last year with a sound display of jumping, after being sent off as the outsider. This year, Harry Cobden gets to hop aboard the market leader Next Destination, who was formerly with the Willie Mullins stable. After landing two Grade 1’s in novice company over hurdles in the 2017/18 season, this horse clearly has a lot of potential to be classy over fences too. After being off the track for 820 days, Paul Nicholls gave him a run in the West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade 2) at Wetherby, in which he managed to finish second. Even though he will probably produce a strong performance on his chasing bow if he avoids ‘the bounce’, I think experience could pay a big factor today and many of his rivals already have that over fences.
Paul Nicholls’ other chance in the race is Southfield Stone. Another in this field who was a useful hurdler, landing the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) at Kempton, it was clear that he was going to be sent over fences sooner rather than later. It took a while for the penny to drop for this horse over fences, hitting the frame on numerous occasions, but he finally got off the mark to win in a decent 3-runner field this season with a nice performance at Cheltenham. However, he failed to follow up next time out. Although he’s clearly a solid performer, this seven-year-old is trying this trip for the first time and looks vulnerable to being beaten again by some unexposed types with plenty of potential.

Hold The Note is yet to fire over fences but does look a smart type and is a slick jumper. After running into some difficult rivals along the way, including Imperial Aura, this six-year-old definitely has ability and already has a rating of 145 over fences, without a win.  However, the fact that he is winless over the five bids so far and ran in snatches on his seasonal debut gives us little encouragement. It’s relatively easy to look elsewhere in this field but a win will happen for this horse eventually and he’s one to keep an eye on in handicaps going forward. 
After a decent spell over hurdles at three miles, Nick Williams was quick to try his luck over the larger obstacles with One For The Team. After a respectable third in the Persian War Novices’ Hurdle at Chepstow, he was sent off as favourite on his chasing bow, where he was set to finish second at this course but was no match for KALOOKI on the day and unseated his rider late on. Out of the Honeyball stable, Acey Milan also made a positive start to his career over the larger obstacles after taking an immediate step forward to land the spoils on his chasing debut in handicap company at Aintree. This was a decent effort on his seasonal reappearance, looking to have a lot in hand as he bolted home up the home straight. This is a much tougher ask but he could play a hand and certainly looks one to note for the future. 
However, after being progressive over hurdles last season, a chance is taken for KALOOKI to back up the impression he made on his chasing debut, despite not putting in an excellent round of jumping. After clouting a few fences on his way round this track last time, he still won with ease and having that experience under his belt this time round, he may well be tough to beat if he jumps better. The second from that race has since gone on to score, so that form has taken a further boost in the right direction, and he looks more than capable of going in again as long as he gives his obstacles a little more respect. 

advice:

KALOOKI 1pt WIN @ 11/4 (BetVictor)
1:15-  Sir Peter O’sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase.

On first look at this race, the most striking thing is the number of entries that come from JP McManus. 16 go to post and four of them are owned by J P McManus across three different yards, all wearing the colours of the late Sir Peter, so it’s a race JP would dearly love to win. Two come from the Paul Nicholls yard, including the 2018 winner Kapcorse. Canelo represents the Alan King yard and As You Like lines up for Jonjo O’Neill with R P Mclernon taking the ride. Three of the JP runners have contested this race at some point or other, with varying degree of success. No trainer has a stand out record in the race and a whole host of trainers have sent their horses here. It is a very competitive field, this is highlighted by the favourite being 5/1, which presents a lot of each way value as bookmakers are paying between 4/5 places. 

The ground looks to be getting better and better and despite racing on Friday, with no rain forecast, it should be perfect good, good to soft ground. Hopefully there will still be sufficient give in the ground for my selection. One horse who has been struggling for any form at all this season is Captain Chaos, he has been pulled up on both of his starts this season, after being given a mark of 142, due to his win at Doncaster. He has off 140 tomorrow and I’m struggling to see how he wins the race. All his wins have come in testing ground and he doesn’t look to be the same horse he was previously. Dan Skelton won the race last year and this is his only runner but barring a significant bounce back to form I can’t see him featuring here. Cap Du Nord for Christian Williams also featured last year and was interestingly off a 5lb higher mark, when you factor in Jack Tudors claim. He was an eye catching fourth on his reappearance and now gets stepped up in trip, which will suit. At the bottom of the weights he’s a very interesting runner. I would have concerns about the Trainer’s form however, as he has failed to really get started this season. 

Orchardstown Cross is a real consistent performer but I just worry he is at the edge of his capabilities in this race. He has failed to really get close to winning off 130 and remains on that mark tomorrow. He will like the ground and stays the trip but I just question whether he is quite good enough to win this race. Almazhar Garde was a last time out winner and has risen swiftly through the handicaps over the last year. Charlie Longsdon has been in fantastic form and his charge’s recent win at Kelso was a good one, after disappointing on his return at Wetherby. He is untried at this trip, although watching his last performance I don’t see why he wouldn’t get the extra few furlongs. He got 5lb extra from the handicapper for that win but also had a claimer on his back at Kelso, so is effectively off a mark 8lb higher. It would be a mighty ask in a much more competitive field. 
Canelo would have been run very close by Northofthewall last time out, but even if that rival had stayed on his feet when coming down at the second last, I think Canelo would have won anyway - regardless it was an emphatic performance. He hasn’t been the most consistent of performers and is now at a career high mark. I think he has the best chance out of the four JP runners and could be open to more improvement. However, I would like to take him on with something more consistent, as he is rather short in the betting. Kapcorse won the race two years ago but we have seen him precious few times since that win. He gets his first start after almost 650 days off the track and you’d be a brave man to back him at such short odds, when he has not been seen for so long. There is no doubting how dangerous he could be at his current mark off 138 but I’d like to see him show it before I backed him. He also has needed the run on each of his comebacks and this is his longest time off the track to date.
Rockys Treasure was once a Graded performer but has failed to get around on his last three starts. He was quite well backed on his last start but unseated at the first. Carrying 11 stone 12 lb, I’m not even sure David Bass, who can do no wrong at the minute, will be able to get him past the finishing line first. The two I have come down on are, Highest Sun and Doctor Dex. The latter has only had three starts over fences, winning his first start and then finishing second and was then pulled up on his last start when he was never travelling. He has beaten On The Slopes twice who has gone on to be a 140 horse whereas Doctor Dex only has a mark off 135. There could still be a lot of improvement to be had and his trainer has won this race before. The trip is the greatest unknown but I’d like to see him given a positive ride from the front as that is where he was at his best. He has won off a break so that wouldn’t concern me and he is better than his last run. However, with the question mark over trip and the competition I think he will have for a lead, I will have to leave him alone on this occasion. He’ll be one for a future race I’m sure though.

 
My pick will instead be HIGHEST SUN who looked like this step up of an extra few furlongs is exactly what he needs. He was a well-backed second favourite on his first start back and was staying on well despite finishing 5th. He got badly outpaced that day and the Tizzard team was in atrocious form back then. Now they are bang in form and off 136 I think HIGHEST SUN could be dangerously well handicapped. He finished only four lengths behind RSA winner Champ last year and three lengths behind Pym in different races, so his quality is reflected in those efforts and therefore this handicap mark should really be a workable one. Hopefully his jumping and fitness will have improved for his earlier run and, providing the ground isn’t rattling fast, I would really fancy his chances of grabbing a place and maybe even winning. 

advice:

HIGHEST SUN 0.5pts E/W @ 12/1 (William Hill - 5 places)

1:50 Newbury - Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle.
A tasty little race this, which Champ landed in 2018 and The Cashel Man took in dominating style last year. 
Nicky Henderson runs three, Colonial Dreams, Rathhill and Champagne Platinum. All three make their seasonal debuts, but it’s hard to split them in truth – despite the difference in odds. Colonial Dreams has struggled off a mark this high before and looks set to struggle again, while Rathhill hasn’t won since his hurdling debut – here at Newbury. He’s yet to face this trip though, and was largely anonymous in handicap hurdles at Down Royal and Cheltenham last season and that is concerning enough. Champagne Platinum has been campaigned rather strangely. He has talent, no doubt, with him going off favourite for the Kim Muir enough of a signal to show that. His jumping was much better than he’d ever shown in the Kim Muir, but his lack of consistency is enough to be put off him on his return to hurdles. 
Amour De Nuit defied a big absence to bounce back with a win last time at Plumpton, but the bounce is a bit of a worry. Lord Lamington has been dropped 5lb since his run at Cheltenham last time but it’s a struggle for four-year-olds in these races and he’s a big price for a reason. Hang In There has a lump of weight even with Ben Jones claiming 3lb in the saddle, but he was a Grade 2 winning novice hurdler and could show more in this test than he has recently. Milton Harris is having a fair time of things lately and Richard Johnson rides his Jacamar, who won at Aintree in October. Heavy ground didn’t suit last time but he’s not been done any favours by the handicapper and has something to find. 

Tea Clipper won at Chepstow on his reappearance in a valuable race but has been raised 7lb for that and has a battle on his hands if he’s to win again. While this is technically a drop in class he does face different types, such as the unexposed On The Wild Side. He won consecutive novice races at Hexham, and although he gets in lightly off a mark of 128 it’s tough to back him here given he has such a mountain to climb on the form book. Flash The Steel pays the price for his consistency with his handicap mark and hasn’t won since Chepstow in October 2019 off a 11lb lower mark. Christopher Wood carries top weight and that’s a mammoth task in itself for this race, let alone the fact he was beaten at Bangor last time out. 

We can look to this race last year for a clue. Howling Milan was fourth off a mark of 127 in this last year and is now 4lb lower, off a mark of 123. He has cheekpieces on for the first time, hardly surprising given his lacklustre run over fences last time out, and a return to hurdling could well provide him with the spark he needs to stage a revival. This race looks to have been planned for, given how well he ran in it last year, and he’s on a pretty decent mark considering everything. 
advice:

HOWLING MILAN 0.5pts E/W @ 12/1 (William Hill, 4 places)
2:25 – Ladbrokes Intermediate Hurdle (Listed Race) 

Won last year by future champion hurdle winner Epatante, I think Nicky Henderson could have another very talented mare, who will be far too good for this race. Although, she is not the only one in this field to bring some very useful form and there are several others who could give her something to think about. Milkwood, Thyme Hill, Botox Has and Sebastapool all come here in great form. Milkwood is the general second favourite for N P Mulholland and was last seen contesting the Welsh Champion hurdle, which was a big step up from his reappearance win at Ffos Las in a Class 4 Novice Hurdle. He beat a horse called Ballinsker that day by four lengths but it was a very easy victory. Ballinsiker didn’t run too badly in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham so it’s not the worse form on offer. His run in the Welsh national was a good effort but he found very little when coming off the bridle, which was concerning. Buzz was only 2 lengths in front of him and has since come out and made a mockery off his mark at Ascot. The winner has also boosted the form when winning the Unibet Elite hurdle. That was a very tough race and the field he faces tomorrow is easier. I expect him to finish in the front three but feel like my selection may be a class above. 
Thyme White is off the same mark as Milkwood for Paul Nicholls. He won on his reappearance at Chepstow, overturning the very well backed Vorashann, who was bitterly disappointing. He cruised into the race and won with ease, getting an 11lb hike in the weights. He did post some good efforts last season but couldn’t make use of a reduced mark in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap at Cheltenham. He’s clearly very talented but this field has some seasoned winners. The second that day does re-oppose and gets slightly more weight on Saturday. The Pink’n gets 6lb instead of 1lb, with Daniel Sansom’s claim, he is one that has gone under the radar and could go very well. He also finished second behind Botox Has, who must carry top weight here. He also must give The Pink’n more weight, which again could increase his chances of overturning the form. Although I was very impressed with Botox Has on his last start, it will have to be a career best to win this off top weight. 
Despite all these positives for the rest of the field, it’s very hard to look past the favourite. MARIE’S ROCK was favourite for the Mares Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham for a long time last season until she unfortunately sustained an injury that cut her season short. She is unbeaten on all three starts and on both starts over hurdles has exhibited a lightning turn of foot. Horses in behind her have also gone on to run well in subsequent races, Midnights Gift finished 8 lengths behind MARIE’S ROCK and is now a solid 133-rated handicapper. MARIE’S ROCK is rated 141 and actually gets weight from some of the other horses, which, when you look back at her form, looks to be crazy. She is surely far better than a handicapper and is using this to move onto bigger and better things. The only question she must answer is fitness, as obviously, she has been off the track a long time with an injury. If she can show what she did last year, then she should brush these very respectable horses aside with ease. Nicky Henderson loves her and hopefully after tomorrows win, we will too. 

advice:
MARIE’S ROCK 2pts WIN @ 13/8 (William Hill, Betway)
3:00 - Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Grade 3) (HANDICAp RACE)

Formerly and probably more commonly known as the Hennessy Gold Cup, this race has a superb bank of statistics and trends that apply to 75% or more winners of the contest.

An absolute key factor here is proven stamina, especially given the demanding nature of the test that the field is likely to face. Only Madison Du Berlais and Many Clouds had not previously recorded a victory over 3m or further prior to coming here. Of this year’s field, the only one with a slight question mark over their stamina is Black Op - despite being a Point winner, he’s not won over further than 2m5f under rules so far in his career. 

Not only that, but eight of the last twelve winners has a previous win at this track to their name and every single one of them had at least two wins over fences under their belts. That’s bad news for plenty, including Ballyoptic and Vinndication, who haven’t won at this venue, and Aye Right, Black Op and Danny Whizzbang, who only have one chasing victory to their name.
With seven of the last ten winners taking part in their second season over fences, they’re a group it’s advisable to keep a keen eye on. These horses tend to improve between their first and second season chasing and are often able to exploit their handicap mark at this time of year if they have done so. This applies to many of those towards the head of the market with the likes of Copperhead, Aye Right and Two For Gold all embarking on their second season over the larger obstacles.

This also means that comparatively younger horses have tended to do well here over the years. To narrow it down, six, seven and eight-year-olds have been successful in nine of the last ten renewals. Three-quarters of this year’s field fall into the desired bracket, but some of the bigger names such as Ballyoptic (10), Beware The Bear (10), Regal Encore (12), Black Op (9) and La Bague Au Roi (9), would all become just the fifth horse since 1990 to win the race at an age older than eight.

Good recent form is also something that has stood horses in good stead over the years, in fact eight of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish on their most recent start. All of the last seven winners have also had a run under their belt and nine of the last twelve ran within 57 days of their previous start - this is something that is only recently becoming more important as before, the likes of State Of Play, Trabolgan, Denman and Bob’s Worth won this on their seasonal debut. A few of the fancied horses fall foul of these trends including The Conditional, who hasn’t yet been seen this season, and Copperhead, who was pulled up on his return. It should be noted, though, that he did run over hurdles there and the last winner of the race, De Rasher Counter, was sixth in a hurdle race before taking this, so that could be a new ‘prep’ trend starting to come to prominence if Copperhead was to take the spoils.
Given the high-class nature of this race, it’s no surprise to see that the lowest-rated winner in the last decade was rated 146 (Carruthers, 2011) and, it’s also no surprise that, given this race is a handicap after all, the highest rated winner (barring Denman’s freakish win from 174) was running from a mark of 160. Anything higher than that would take an effort that would go down in the annals of time and so the likes of Ballyoptic and Vinndication look to have plenty to do in that regard.

The final factor to warrant some consideration is the strength of the betting market in recent years. Eight of the last ten winners of the Ladbrokes Trophy have come from the first six in the betting and therefore those towards the head of the market should be favoured. There is scope to look for value in the race, especially with the last two winning SPs being 12/1, but it does still seem sensible not to look too far away from the market principals.

Shortlist:

 COPPERHEAD – 8/9

 Two For Gold – 8/9
 Aye Right - 7/9
 Kildisart - 7/9
Conclusion
With six, seven or eight-year-olds having won 90% of the last decade’s renewals of this race, it’s no surprise that my shortlist is comprised of four horses in that age group. Interestingly, before Sam Brown was not declared on account of the good ground, he hit all nine of the trends, so connections will be cursing their luck that the weather has been so good in this past week compared to the previous one, where heavy ground was almost everywhere. Still, four places on offer with a 16+ runner field, so a four-runner shortlist should soften the below for the trends.
The Reynoldstown at Ascot last season could prove a big guide to this race, with two on the shortlist finishing first and second. Two For Gold was a distant second to winner, Copperhead, but paid the price for trying to make the first move when chasing the leader. He’s a dour stayer who jumps nicely and he made a satisfactory reappearance this season when second in a Listed Handicap Chase behind Huntsman Son over an inadequate 2m4f at Wetherby, only worn down late on after leading for much of the contest. The step up to this trip and a well-run contest will suit this second-season chaser and he hails from the Kim Bailey stable who are going great guns so far in 2020, so this seven-year-old has to be respected off a mark of 148.
The winner, COPPERHEAD, exploded onto the scene as a novice chaser for Colin Tizzard, proving at least 30lbs better over fences than hurdles and wrapping up that Grade 2 title in the process and in some style (by 17 lengths!). He found the RSA too much for him in the end, weakening three out after looking a threat for much of the second circuit, but this kind of test, especially if held on softer ground, could suit better and he has a C&D victory to his name last season. That win was a superb weight-carrying performance on soft ground, travelling and jumping nicely before clearing a few lengths away from the field in the closing stages, proving the track and ground holds no fears for him. Yes, he is 18lb higher in the weights here in a much better contest, but the Tizzard yard certainly knows the type required to run well in this (two winners and three placed horses in the last seven years) and if you can forgive his pretty lifeless first run of the season over hurdles, he certainly appeals as the grizzled type that do well in this. The Tizzard yard weren’t firing at the time and have certainly come into some good form now, so there’s every chance COPPERHEAD could go well here from a mark of 152.
The remaining two on the shortlist both ran at Wetherby’s Charlie Hall Meeting almost a month ago, with Aye Right running well in the big race itself, finishing a seven-length third to Cyrname and was five lengths behind the re-opposing Vinndication. Because this is a handicap, Aye Right is 7lb better off with that rival than he was at Wetherby, so there’s every chance that where one finishes, the other won’t be far away. The Harriet Graham-trained chaser has form on decent ground, stays well and has proven he can mix it at a very high level, so the only question that remains is whether a mark of 150 in handicap company is enough to anchor him - he was a good second to Nuts Well (subsequent Old Roan Chase winner) on his seasonal reappearance over an insufficient trip at Kelso off 146, so there’s every chance that 150 is still workable. 

Completing the shortlist is the smart Kildisart, who ran extremely well in the same Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle that Copperhead was pulled up in, finishing third and beating Stayers’ Hurdle champion, Lisnagar Oscar in the process. He ran without the cheekpices on there, but has them back on here for the first time since he was an agonisingly close second to The Conditional in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last season. He races off a 4lb higher mark here, but is still 4lb better off with that rival, so with the ground looking to be good or good to soft at worst, things look to be playing well into Kildisart’s hands. His wellbeing was proved at Wetherby and he’s got every chance here.
3:35 - Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (For the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) 

Shading favouritism for the final race of Newbury’s 2020 Winter Carnival is Moonlighter who carries top weight in the contest for Nick Williams after putting up a career-best effort last time out. Last season he got off the mark over fences at the fourth attempt with success in a novices’ handicap over Saturday’s course and distance on heavy ground, before contesting the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick. He couldn’t get involved upped in class when finishing fourth, but MOONLIGHTER showed improved form to begin the current campaign with an excellent second in the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter (good ground). The seven-year-old only went down by a neck that day to Paul Nicholls’ Champion Chase dark horse Greaneteen, which was a big performance even if he was receiving 9lb from the winner. He also jumped to his left during the race, so the return to a left-handed track on Saturday should suit. A repeat of that performance could make MOONLIGHTER hard to beat at Newbury despite carrying top weight, and he also has the potential for further progress making his eighth career start over fences. 
Ibleo also has Class 1 form to his name as he was runner-up in a Listed handicap at Ascot on his seasonal reappearance. That form looks to be solid with the winner that day, Dan Skelton’s Amoola Gold, going on to finish a narrow second in a competitive handicap back at Ascot last weekend. Trained by Venetia Williams, Ibleo is lightly-raced over the bigger obstacles having only had the four starts to date, winning his first two races and then finishing second on the two most recent occasions. The seven-year-old can give his all again on Saturday but the conditions might not be ideal for him. His best form so far has been on soft ground or worse and he has run below-par in his three career races where good has appeared in the going description.

Another unexposed contender is the bottom weight The King Of May who is two from three over fences for Brian Ellison. He was switched to chasing last season and the form of his seasonal reappearance at Carlisle in October 2019 now looks to be strong as he beat the Evan Williams-trained Esprit Du Large, who went on to land the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown. However, The King Of May’s was last seen on the track in January so it might be tough for him to win this weekend on the back of a 307-day absence.

Others to note include Zanza who has run well in his three starts at Newbury over hurdles for Philip Hobbs, winning twice and finishing a respectable sixth in the Betfair Hurdle earlier this year. The six-year-old has been sent chasing this season and built on his comeback run to finish second at Warwick last time, but he will need to find more again to get involved on Saturday. Also with Newbury form to his name is The Russian Doyen who won a novices’ handicap over Saturday’s course and distance in January last year for Colin Tizzard. He has not gone on from that though upped to two and half miles, so needs the first-time blinkers and drop back in trip to make a difference. One who is more exposed is the Charlie Longsdon-trained Western Miller, but he defied his odds of 66/1 to return to form at Cheltenham last month. However, he was well-beaten in this race last year off the same mark so it remains to be seen if he is able to back up his Cheltenham effort.
advice:
MOONLIGHTER 1pt WIN @ 3/1 (William Hill)

12:45 - The Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boosts Chase (Novices' Limited Handicap Chase) (For the Fulke Walwyn Trophy) 
This looks to be a competitive edition of the race with the two at the top of the market looking to maintain their 100 per cent record over fences.

Eritage made it a winning start over the bigger obstacles at Ludlow last month for Paul Nicholls, although he enjoyed some fortune to do so. Having had wind surgery during the summer, the six-year-old was well-backed ahead of his chase debut and he raced keenly through the race before looking held in second behind the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Goa Lil approaching the final fence. However, the leader fell at the last leaving Eritage to come home as a clear eight and a half length winner. Eritage was having to concede weight to the four-year-old Goa Lil, but the runner-up on the day was Dan Skelton’s Monsieur D’Arque whose record over fences now stands at one win from nine races. A winner of a Class 4 novice over hurdles, Eritage is clearly expected to make up into a better chaser given the way that he was supported for the Ludlow race, so he is open to progress at Newbury but will need to improve now taking on tougher opposition.
The other horse in the line-up who arrives having won his only chase start so far is ANEMOI, who will be bidding to enhance Harry Whittington’s fine recent record in the race. The trainer has landed the prize twice in the last five years and ANEMOI looks to hold strong claims of adding to that in the 2020 renewal. He was a useful performer over hurdles in 2018/19 as third-place finishes in a Cheltenham Listed race and Class 2 at Taunton saw him sent off at odds of only 7/1 for the Scottish Champion Hurdle. However, he ran below-par in the Grade 2 handicap at Ayr and then was not seen on the track again until Wetherby last month. Having had wind surgery, the six-year-old made a successful return to action over hurdles as he got the better of Dan Skelton’s Proschema before being sent chasing for his next start.
In what looked to be a decent novices’ handicap at Chepstow at the beginning of the month, ANEMOI showed a good attitude to narrowly get the better of Kerry Lee’s Financier, who reopposes on friday. After a slow jump at the second-last fence, ANEMOI battled back strongly to get his head in front close home which has led to there being a 1lb change in the weights between the pair ahead of the Newbury contest. However, Financier had the benefit of three previous races over fences and ANEMOI can confirm the form from Chepstow with the promise of more to come over the bigger obstacles. He can improve on his first chase start and make it a hat-trick of wins this season on friday.
All of the runners in the line-up have potential now chasing, such as Editeur Du Gite who put up an improved effort on his third start over fences on his seasonal reappearance. A winner over hurdles in France, he failed to get involved in his two races last year for Gary Moore but was interestingly pitched into the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton on the latter occasion. He did not race again until the end of last month, where he improved to finish runner-up in a novices’ handicap at Ascot. That was over two miles and three furlongs and Editeur Du Gite went from the front until being passed at the second-last by the Anthony Honeyball-trained Sully D’Oc AA. The six-year-old could be able to build on that effort back in trip at Newbury, but he has a bit to find with the front two in the market.
advice:
ANEMOI 1pt WIN @ 4/1 (General)
2:25 – The Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase 

11 runners go to the post in what looks a very interesting chase over the 2m4f, with a lot of solid form on offer.

 
Having to give weight to all is the Venetia Williams trained Cepage, with the usual suspect of Charlie Deutsch doing the steering. He has been a very good horse for connections thus far and managed to get his head in front in a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham over 2m4½f back in January. He wasn’t disgraced in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival last time out either, when finishing seventh. He hasn’t been seen since then though, and despite having some strong form in his locker, he usually finds one or two too good and I can see the same happening again here on slightly quicker ground than he ideally likes. 

Although Sully D’Oc AA returned a winner for last time out, this race looks a lot deeper, albeit with him being towards the bottom of the handicap in this field. The wind surgery seemed to do the trick as this horse finally returned a winner over fences on his seasonal debut when scoring at Ascot, jumping well all the way round. The 10lb raise could see him struggle in a more competitive race, but he is open to improvement. Defi Sacre gets a huge amount of weight from all his rivals and could still be well-handicapped off this mark. He was a classy improver last year over fences, rattling up a hat-trick over 2m and his reappearance run showed that he could still find a mark of 129 workable. However, given that he failed to score at Aintree at the start of the month, despite being sent off as favourite, and this trip is one he’s not proven over, he could find this race a tough ask with cheekpieces on for the first time. 
Richard Johnson is back to winning ways once again this season and his partnership with Philip Hobbs is usually one to be feared even though the yard is in some very inconsistent form at the moment. Musical Slave has the second JP McManus colours on today and he showed progression over hurdles - he has now started to tell a similar story over fences too. This seven-year-old managed to break his duck over fences when winning at Exeter on New Year’s Day and followed that up with two decent efforts. However, he is now 4lb higher in the weights this time around and will more than likely want further in time, especially given that this ground isn’t as soft as he’d like ideally. 
San Benedeto is an interesting horse here as he is a very smart chaser on his day, scoring over course and distance in March 2019 to land the Greatwood Gold Cup (Grade 3) off this same mark of 147. However, the big worry with this horse is that his recent form has been poor in handicap company, including in the Summer Plate in July, but he does drop back to his last winning mark so again, that gives him a chance. He does look interesting but, judging by his last four efforts, he’d be a risky one to chance regardless. The Alan King trained Fidux deserves a mention after finishing ahead of the Nicholls horse in the Summer Plate, eventually finishing second. The seven-year-old has since gone in to score on his latest outing, albeit in weaker company, over 2m5½f, sticking on gamely. This is a much tougher task though and might be out of his depth in these deep waters.  
Clondaw Castle has some strong market support, after an excellent run in the Old Roan Chase, finishing second on his seasonal debut, finishing ahead of the favourite, OLDGRANGEWOOD. He ended last season in fine form too, picking up a victory at Warwick over today’s trip, and he clearly has potential, especially on the kind of sound surface he’ll encounter here. The eight-year-old is now 2lb higher for his recent second and OLDGRANGEWOOD has the 2lb swing in the weights in his favour here. After taking this race 12 months ago, Dan Skelton’s nine-year-old gets the nod to get back to winning ways after his good fourth last time out. He really seemed to benefit from the wind surgery last season, scoring twice in handicaps including a Grade 3 at Cheltenham. He should come on from that seasonal debut and with conditions in his favour and 4lb less weight on his back than the burden his main danger, Clondaw Castle, carries, it would be no shock to see these two battle it out to the line and the market could well have got this race spot on. 
advice:
OLDGRANGEWOOD 1pt E/W @ 9/2 (William Hill - 4 places)

3:00 - Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) 
This looks to be a high-class renewal of the Grade 2 contest and it sees last year’s winner of the race return to action but now with a bit to prove.

Paisley Park was one of the stories of the 2018/19 season for Emma Lavelle as he burst onto the scene in the staying hurdling division, capping off an unbeaten five-race campaign with success in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He got the better of the Jedd O’Keeffe-trained Sam Spinner by two and three-quarter lengths in the championship event and the manner of his victories throughout the season suggested that he could go on to dominate the division over the next couple of years. Given a break after his Festival success, things went to plan in Paisley Park’s first two runs of the 2019/20 season as he won last year’s renewal of the Long Distance Hurdle before following-up in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham. Those two wins saw him sent off as the odds-on favourite to defend his Stayers’ Hurdle Crown, but the eight-year-old finished seventh in the Grade 1 after suffering from an irregular heartbeat. It can be that the issue is a one-off though and connections have been positive ahead of his comeback this week. If Paisley Park can return at Newbury somewhere near his best form then he will be difficult to beat in the Long Distance Hurdle, but it remains to be seen how his last run has affected him.

Taking on Paisley Park at Newbury are two of the new kids on the block in the staying hurdling division, who will be looking to see if they are up to competing at the Cheltenham Festival come March. McFabulous took a bit of time to find his form last season for Paul Nicholls but ended the campaign with impressive wins as he was upped in trip. He got off the mark over hurdles at the third attempt when winning a Market Rasen novice in February and has not looked back since, travelling strongly when landing a Grade 3 novice at Kempton the following month over two miles and five furlongs. For his seasonal reappearance, McFabulous was kept to novice company for the Grade 2 Persian War at Chepstow and again travelled easily through the race before having too much for the rest of his rivals. The six-year-old has now earned a step up to the highest level and has to be respected on his first try at three miles, but on ratings he does have a lot to find with Paisley Park.
Also in the line-up is the Philip Hobbs-trained Thyme Hill who was unbeaten in three novice hurdles last season, including Newbury’s Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, ahead of the Cheltenham Festival. He then ran a fine race when finishing an unlucky fourth in the Albert Bartlett so connections have decided to stay over hurdles for the current campaign. However, the trainer’s horses have seemed to be needing their first run back this season and it looks a strong race to be starting off in.

There are actually two winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle in Friday’s race and LISNAGAR OSCAR might be underestimated yet again here after his shock success at Cheltenham in March. Sent off at 50/1 for the 2020 edition of the Stayers’ Hurdle, he defied his odds to run out a two-length winner (Tom George’s Summerville Boy back in fifth) with connections saying afterwards that they were surprised to see him return at such a big price. Looking back, he had showed promise when third in the Cleeve Hurdle on his previous run and as a novice he had finished fifth in the Albert Bartlett and third in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. With some uncertainty about Paisley Park and the pair of McFabulous and Thyme Hill stepping out of novice company, LISNAGAR OSCAR could build on his solid comeback run at Wetherby last month and go well at decent odds in the Long Distance Hurdle.
advice:
LISNAGAR OSCAR 1pt E/W @ 16/1 (BetVictor)
 
 
3:35 – The Play Ladbrokes 1-2-Free On Football Handicap Hurdle.

Current favourite for the closing race of day one is Hill Sixteen who won by an impressive forty-six lengths on his stable debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies nine days ago. The seven-year-old was well-backed for his first run since January and he duly landed the odds with a comfortable victory. That performance came in a Ffos Las handicap chase over two miles and three and a half furlongs on heavy ground, so he will be facing a much different test at Newbury on Saturday as he bids to make it back-to-back wins since moving from the Sue Smith yard. Hill Sixteen gets to race off a mark of 123 now switched to hurdles so is 10lb well-in on the ratings, but he is up in trip and class while conditions will be much quicker than they were at Ffos Las. He is a previous winner over hurdles though and was runner-up on his penultimate start over two miles and seven and a half furlongs, but he has not raced over hurdles since March 2019 so has a little bit to prove despite being well-handicapped.

Another who has a wide-margin win to their name this season is Neville’s Cross, who made it two from two since being sent handicapping with a twenty-length success at Hereford last month. Trained by Tom Lacey, the five-year-old has enjoyed the step-up in distance this season with wins at Uttoxeter and then Hereford before going up in grade at Cheltenham at the end of October. Raised 12lb for his Hereford victory, he was sent off as favourite for Cheltenham’s Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier but could get never really get involved when finishing sixth (the Tom George-trained Ballon Onabudget further back in eighth). It is too soon to be writing off Neville’s Cross as he is still lightly raced and unexposed over three miles, but he will need to resume his improvement on friday to defy his current mark of 130.

One who is proven in this grade and should not have any problems with the conditions at Newbury is DELL’ ARCA, who won a Class 2 over friday’s course and distance on good ground at the beginning of the month. He may now be eleven years old but has rolled back the years this season for David Pipe as he previously won at Aintree before following-up in good style last time out. DELL’ ARCA was rated as high as 150 in the past so his current mark of 131 may not be beyond him and he has been developing a good partnership with conditional jockey Fergus Gillard. For DELL’ ARCA’s two wins this season Gillard has been in the saddle and he is good value for his 5lb claim, even if he was able to take off 7lb the last time at Newbury. With Gillard’s claim, DELL’ ARCA only has to carry 10st 7lb on friday and he can continue his resurgence this season and make a bold bid for his hat-trick.

Alan King saddles two in the race and they both could have more to offer over three miles. Loverboy is lightly raced having only had the nine career starts to date as a nine-year-old. He ran twice for Dan Skelton back in 2017 but then was not seen again on the track until January this year when he defied his long absence to make a winning start for Alan King at Chepstow. He subsequently did not race until last month where he ran creditably to finish sixth at Wetherby trying three miles for the first time. Loverboy could be able to build on that effort at Newbury carrying bottom weight in the contest, so is an interesting contender even though he is up in class. Stablemate Coeur De Lion is actually having his first try at the trip having raced more times on the Flat during his career. The seven-year-old is rated 94 on the level having won the Ascot Stakes at the royal meeting this summer, so he could be well-treated based on that form. However, so far he has not been as good in his eleven races over hurdles as he has shown on the Flat. 
advice:

DELL’ ARCA 1pt E/W @ 15/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

This Saturday sees the annual running of the Ladbroke Trophy handicap Chase, known to many as the Henessey Gold Cup and won in the past by such legendry names as Arkle, Burrough Hill Lad and Denman to name but three. It’ll be run at Newbury over 3m 2f and the most important factor is that the ground is currently good to soft at the Berkshire track. The weather forecast for the week (though they can be as poor as some tipsters I know!) is bar a wet Wednesday predominantly dry which isn’t going to help the true mudlark if that forecast is right. 
Heading the weights for the field of 19 is Ballyoptic last seen pulling up in the Charlie Hall and his mark of 162 looks too high. Vinndication is a lovely old fashioned chaser who ran Cyrname to 2l in the aforementioned Charlie Hall and would have a real chance if the ground was soft but as already mooted conditions may stem away from him and a few others. Sam Brown is another who is better when the ground is hock deep and on those conditions would be the pick for me but unless the heavens open on the day I can’t be interested in Anthony Honeyball’s charge. Honeyball also has Regal Encore entered who won at Ascot recently but ran well in that race last year before pulling up here. He’s best at Ascot. 
Paul Nicholl’s has left in Secret Investor and Danny Whizzbang. The latter flopped in the Badger Beer at Wincanton last time and would take a bit chunk of faith to back him following that outing though his stable companion Secret Investor is high on my short list. A second season novice he benefited from having his wind done when sluishing up at Chepstow 6 weeks ago by 7 lengths from Potterman. The handicapper has raised him 9lb for that but he’s a decent good ground horse who likes to run from the front. He can run well here. 
Nicky Henderson’s Beware The Bear is a very interesting runner who finished 4th in the race last season from the same mark only beaten 2 ¼ lengths and that was his seasonal re-appearance so we shouldn’t be worried of his lack of a recent outing. In fact he was seen at Newbury’s Ladbroke Trophy gallop day only last week working all over the stone higher rated Santini! How much you can read into that I’m not sure but he’s a lively outsider for sure. 
Kidisart lines up for this with a run over hurdles in the Bet365 Hurdle at Wetherby last month, a race in which fellow challenger Copperhead pulled up in. The latter strikes me as more of a Welsh National type.  
Scottish challenger Aye Right ran a stormer when third to Cyrname in the Charlie Hall, 5lb behind Vinndication and despite a 4lb rise is still 7lb better off. He’s also got a Saturday engagement up at Newcastle.
Mister Malarkey was 6th last year off of the same mark and didn’t show enough at Ascot last time behind Regal Encore to be of interest to me here.
Tom George’s Black Op seems to have been around years although is still a nine year old. He’s lightly raced over fence with only six chase starts under his belt, notably when 1 ½ lengths second to the RSA winner Champ here last season at levels. That was a fine effort as Champ is now rated 13lb higher. The trip was too short on his re-appearance when 4th to Saturday’s Ascot winner Imperial Aura at Carlisle in the Charlie Parker Memorial. Sam Brown was 1 ¾ lengths ahead that day and although 6lb worse off is a definite player here. 
Kim Bailey also has Two For Gold in the race as well as Vinndication but as promising as he is with such a good profile for this he really needs soft/heavy ground and is overlooked. He also has an entry up at Newcastle on Saturday. 
David Bridgewater’s The Conditional was just touched off in this last year off of 137 but he came into the race having had two prep races and is 10lb higher today (he’s three times the price of Beware The Bear who was just behind him and 10lb worse off). To be fair to him he did improve further last season ending up winning the Ultima at the Festival. 
La Bague Au Roi likes Newbury but she looks to have fallen out of love with the game currently.
Alan King intends to saddle Potterman who has finished runner up at Chepstow (7l 2nd to Secret Investor and 4lb better off) and Wincanton (Badger Beers beaten a short head). He likes good ground so it would not be a shock if we have a dry week that he runs well. And 20/1 about him looks quite big.
Ardlethen and The Hollow Ginge are not for me but bottom weight Cloth Cap is very tempting. Touted by his trainer Jonjo O’Neill as an ideal National horse he is best on good ground which he didn’t have at all in four runs last season. He had some decent ground first time out this season when third to Frodon in a Cheltenham handicap. That will have put him in good shape for this and he can race off of a 2lb lower mark as he was 2lb out of the handicap then.  I’m not sure who will ride him as the obvious fit would be Jonjo O’Neil Junior but the lowest weight he’s ridden at in the last year is 10-6 so his regular pilot Richie McLernon will probably ride as he can do 10-0.
 
Summary:-
With a dryish (bar Wednesday) forecast I’ve dropped out the mudlarks Vinndication, Sam Browne & Two For Gold. My short list comprises of Secret Investor, Beware The Bear, Black Op and Cloth Cap. I’m wary of the fact that most firms will have enhanced place terms come declaration time and there is likely to be a near maximum field so I don’t suggest big stakes in a race it may pay to back two each way now and to re-visit come declaration time. So after much deliberation :-
 
BLACK OP 1 point each way @ 8/1 ¼ odds 1-2-3-4  bet365
 
SECRET INVESTOR 1 point each way @ 16/1 ¼ odds 1-2-3-4 BetVictor
 

12:45 - The Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boosts Chase (Novices' Limited Handicap Chase) (For the Fulke Walwyn Trophy) 
This looks to be a competitive edition of the race with the two at the top of the market looking to maintain their 100 per cent record over fences.

Eritage made it a winning start over the bigger obstacles at Ludlow last month for Paul Nicholls, although he enjoyed some fortune to do so. Having had wind surgery during the summer, the six-year-old was well-backed ahead of his chase debut and he raced keenly through the race before looking held in second behind the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Goa Lil approaching the final fence. However, the leader fell at the last leaving Eritage to come home as a clear eight and a half length winner. Eritage was having to concede weight to the four-year-old Goa Lil, but the runner-up on the day was Dan Skelton’s Monsieur D’Arque whose record over fences now stands at one win from nine races. A winner of a Class 4 novice over hurdles, Eritage is clearly expected to make up into a better chaser given the way that he was supported for the Ludlow race, so he is open to progress at Newbury but will need to improve now taking on tougher opposition.
The other horse in the line-up who arrives having won his only chase start so far is ANEMOI, who will be bidding to enhance Harry Whittington’s fine recent record in the race. The trainer has landed the prize twice in the last five years and ANEMOI looks to hold strong claims of adding to that in the 2020 renewal. He was a useful performer over hurdles in 2018/19 as third-place finishes in a Cheltenham Listed race and Class 2 at Taunton saw him sent off at odds of only 7/1 for the Scottish Champion Hurdle. However, he ran below-par in the Grade 2 handicap at Ayr and then was not seen on the track again until Wetherby last month. Having had wind surgery, the six-year-old made a successful return to action over hurdles as he got the better of Dan Skelton’s Proschema before being sent chasing for his next start.
In what looked to be a decent novices’ handicap at Chepstow at the beginning of the month, ANEMOI showed a good attitude to narrowly get the better of Kerry Lee’s Financier, who reopposes on friday. After a slow jump at the second-last fence, ANEMOI battled back strongly to get his head in front close home which has led to there being a 1lb change in the weights between the pair ahead of the Newbury contest. However, Financier had the benefit of three previous races over fences and ANEMOI can confirm the form from Chepstow with the promise of more to come over the bigger obstacles. He can improve on his first chase start and make it a hat-trick of wins this season on friday.
All of the runners in the line-up have potential now chasing, such as Editeur Du Gite who put up an improved effort on his third start over fences on his seasonal reappearance. A winner over hurdles in France, he failed to get involved in his two races last year for Gary Moore but was interestingly pitched into the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton on the latter occasion. He did not race again until the end of last month, where he improved to finish runner-up in a novices’ handicap at Ascot. That was over two miles and three furlongs and Editeur Du Gite went from the front until being passed at the second-last by the Anthony Honeyball-trained Sully D’Oc AA. The six-year-old could be able to build on that effort back in trip at Newbury, but he has a bit to find with the front two in the market.
advice:
ANEMOI 1pt WIN @ 4/1 (General)
2:25 – The Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase 

11 runners go to the post in what looks a very interesting chase over the 2m4f, with a lot of solid form on offer.

 
Having to give weight to all is the Venetia Williams trained Cepage, with the usual suspect of Charlie Deutsch doing the steering. He has been a very good horse for connections thus far and managed to get his head in front in a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham over 2m4½f back in January. He wasn’t disgraced in the Ultima Handicap at the Cheltenham Festival last time out either, when finishing seventh. He hasn’t been seen since then though, and despite having some strong form in his locker, he usually finds one or two too good and I can see the same happening again here on slightly quicker ground than he ideally likes. 

Although Sully D’Oc AA returned a winner for last time out, this race looks a lot deeper, albeit with him being towards the bottom of the handicap in this field. The wind surgery seemed to do the trick as this horse finally returned a winner over fences on his seasonal debut when scoring at Ascot, jumping well all the way round. The 10lb raise could see him struggle in a more competitive race, but he is open to improvement. Defi Sacre gets a huge amount of weight from all his rivals and could still be well-handicapped off this mark. He was a classy improver last year over fences, rattling up a hat-trick over 2m and his reappearance run showed that he could still find a mark of 129 workable. However, given that he failed to score at Aintree at the start of the month, despite being sent off as favourite, and this trip is one he’s not proven over, he could find this race a tough ask with cheekpieces on for the first time. 
Richard Johnson is back to winning ways once again this season and his partnership with Philip Hobbs is usually one to be feared even though the yard is in some very inconsistent form at the moment. Musical Slave has the second JP McManus colours on today and he showed progression over hurdles - he has now started to tell a similar story over fences too. This seven-year-old managed to break his duck over fences when winning at Exeter on New Year’s Day and followed that up with two decent efforts. However, he is now 4lb higher in the weights this time around and will more than likely want further in time, especially given that this ground isn’t as soft as he’d like ideally. 
San Benedeto is an interesting horse here as he is a very smart chaser on his day, scoring over course and distance in March 2019 to land the Greatwood Gold Cup (Grade 3) off this same mark of 147. However, the big worry with this horse is that his recent form has been poor in handicap company, including in the Summer Plate in July, but he does drop back to his last winning mark so again, that gives him a chance. He does look interesting but, judging by his last four efforts, he’d be a risky one to chance regardless. The Alan King trained Fidux deserves a mention after finishing ahead of the Nicholls horse in the Summer Plate, eventually finishing second. The seven-year-old has since gone in to score on his latest outing, albeit in weaker company, over 2m5½f, sticking on gamely. This is a much tougher task though and might be out of his depth in these deep waters.  
Clondaw Castle has some strong market support, after an excellent run in the Old Roan Chase, finishing second on his seasonal debut, finishing ahead of the favourite, OLDGRANGEWOOD. He ended last season in fine form too, picking up a victory at Warwick over today’s trip, and he clearly has potential, especially on the kind of sound surface he’ll encounter here. The eight-year-old is now 2lb higher for his recent second and OLDGRANGEWOOD has the 2lb swing in the weights in his favour here. After taking this race 12 months ago, Dan Skelton’s nine-year-old gets the nod to get back to winning ways after his good fourth last time out. He really seemed to benefit from the wind surgery last season, scoring twice in handicaps including a Grade 3 at Cheltenham. He should come on from that seasonal debut and with conditions in his favour and 4lb less weight on his back than the burden his main danger, Clondaw Castle, carries, it would be no shock to see these two battle it out to the line and the market could well have got this race spot on. 
advice:
OLDGRANGEWOOD 1pt E/W @ 9/2 (William Hill - 4 places)

3:00 - Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) 
This looks to be a high-class renewal of the Grade 2 contest and it sees last year’s winner of the race return to action but now with a bit to prove.

Paisley Park was one of the stories of the 2018/19 season for Emma Lavelle as he burst onto the scene in the staying hurdling division, capping off an unbeaten five-race campaign with success in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He got the better of the Jedd O’Keeffe-trained Sam Spinner by two and three-quarter lengths in the championship event and the manner of his victories throughout the season suggested that he could go on to dominate the division over the next couple of years. Given a break after his Festival success, things went to plan in Paisley Park’s first two runs of the 2019/20 season as he won last year’s renewal of the Long Distance Hurdle before following-up in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham. Those two wins saw him sent off as the odds-on favourite to defend his Stayers’ Hurdle Crown, but the eight-year-old finished seventh in the Grade 1 after suffering from an irregular heartbeat. It can be that the issue is a one-off though and connections have been positive ahead of his comeback this week. If Paisley Park can return at Newbury somewhere near his best form then he will be difficult to beat in the Long Distance Hurdle, but it remains to be seen how his last run has affected him.

Taking on Paisley Park at Newbury are two of the new kids on the block in the staying hurdling division, who will be looking to see if they are up to competing at the Cheltenham Festival come March. McFabulous took a bit of time to find his form last season for Paul Nicholls but ended the campaign with impressive wins as he was upped in trip. He got off the mark over hurdles at the third attempt when winning a Market Rasen novice in February and has not looked back since, travelling strongly when landing a Grade 3 novice at Kempton the following month over two miles and five furlongs. For his seasonal reappearance, McFabulous was kept to novice company for the Grade 2 Persian War at Chepstow and again travelled easily through the race before having too much for the rest of his rivals. The six-year-old has now earned a step up to the highest level and has to be respected on his first try at three miles, but on ratings he does have a lot to find with Paisley Park.
Also in the line-up is the Philip Hobbs-trained Thyme Hill who was unbeaten in three novice hurdles last season, including Newbury’s Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, ahead of the Cheltenham Festival. He then ran a fine race when finishing an unlucky fourth in the Albert Bartlett so connections have decided to stay over hurdles for the current campaign. However, the trainer’s horses have seemed to be needing their first run back this season and it looks a strong race to be starting off in.

There are actually two winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle in Friday’s race and LISNAGAR OSCAR might be underestimated yet again here after his shock success at Cheltenham in March. Sent off at 50/1 for the 2020 edition of the Stayers’ Hurdle, he defied his odds to run out a two-length winner (Tom George’s Summerville Boy back in fifth) with connections saying afterwards that they were surprised to see him return at such a big price. Looking back, he had showed promise when third in the Cleeve Hurdle on his previous run and as a novice he had finished fifth in the Albert Bartlett and third in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. With some uncertainty about Paisley Park and the pair of McFabulous and Thyme Hill stepping out of novice company, LISNAGAR OSCAR could build on his solid comeback run at Wetherby last month and go well at decent odds in the Long Distance Hurdle.
advice:
LISNAGAR OSCAR 1pt E/W @ 16/1 (BetVictor)
 
 
3:35 – The Play Ladbrokes 1-2-Free On Football Handicap Hurdle.

Current favourite for the closing race of day one is Hill Sixteen who won by an impressive forty-six lengths on his stable debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies nine days ago. The seven-year-old was well-backed for his first run since January and he duly landed the odds with a comfortable victory. That performance came in a Ffos Las handicap chase over two miles and three and a half furlongs on heavy ground, so he will be facing a much different test at Newbury on Saturday as he bids to make it back-to-back wins since moving from the Sue Smith yard. Hill Sixteen gets to race off a mark of 123 now switched to hurdles so is 10lb well-in on the ratings, but he is up in trip and class while conditions will be much quicker than they were at Ffos Las. He is a previous winner over hurdles though and was runner-up on his penultimate start over two miles and seven and a half furlongs, but he has not raced over hurdles since March 2019 so has a little bit to prove despite being well-handicapped.

Another who has a wide-margin win to their name this season is Neville’s Cross, who made it two from two since being sent handicapping with a twenty-length success at Hereford last month. Trained by Tom Lacey, the five-year-old has enjoyed the step-up in distance this season with wins at Uttoxeter and then Hereford before going up in grade at Cheltenham at the end of October. Raised 12lb for his Hereford victory, he was sent off as favourite for Cheltenham’s Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier but could get never really get involved when finishing sixth (the Tom George-trained Ballon Onabudget further back in eighth). It is too soon to be writing off Neville’s Cross as he is still lightly raced and unexposed over three miles, but he will need to resume his improvement on friday to defy his current mark of 130.

One who is proven in this grade and should not have any problems with the conditions at Newbury is DELL’ ARCA, who won a Class 2 over friday’s course and distance on good ground at the beginning of the month. He may now be eleven years old but has rolled back the years this season for David Pipe as he previously won at Aintree before following-up in good style last time out. DELL’ ARCA was rated as high as 150 in the past so his current mark of 131 may not be beyond him and he has been developing a good partnership with conditional jockey Fergus Gillard. For DELL’ ARCA’s two wins this season Gillard has been in the saddle and he is good value for his 5lb claim, even if he was able to take off 7lb the last time at Newbury. With Gillard’s claim, DELL’ ARCA only has to carry 10st 7lb on friday and he can continue his resurgence this season and make a bold bid for his hat-trick.

Alan King saddles two in the race and they both could have more to offer over three miles. Loverboy is lightly raced having only had the nine career starts to date as a nine-year-old. He ran twice for Dan Skelton back in 2017 but then was not seen again on the track until January this year when he defied his long absence to make a winning start for Alan King at Chepstow. He subsequently did not race until last month where he ran creditably to finish sixth at Wetherby trying three miles for the first time. Loverboy could be able to build on that effort at Newbury carrying bottom weight in the contest, so is an interesting contender even though he is up in class. Stablemate Coeur De Lion is actually having his first try at the trip having raced more times on the Flat during his career. The seven-year-old is rated 94 on the level having won the Ascot Stakes at the royal meeting this summer, so he could be well-treated based on that form. However, so far he has not been as good in his eleven races over hurdles as he has shown on the Flat. 
advice:

DELL’ ARCA 1pt E/W @ 15/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Never in doubt

The first ‘big handicap’ of the season and one with a few very strong trends associated with it, starting with a nod to experience. All of the last 12 winners of this race have had at least two runs at this venue and all but one of those have had at least five chase runs. That’s a massive black mark in the column of ante-post favourite, Saint Sonnet, who would not only become the first five-year-old to win the race since Caid Du Berlais in 2014, but has only had three runs over fences in his life so far. Combine that with the abysmal record of favourites over the past decade (0/10) and this well-fancied, unexposed sort comes out as one of the worst value horses you could think of in terms of ticking the trends boxes.

His yard, however, is without doubt the best source of winners and placed horses in the past decade. Nicholls has not only saddled two of the last eight winners, but he’s also trained a placed horse in four of the last six years that he hasn’t won the race. Saint Sonnet still has to be respected as a result, as does the stable’s other runner, Brelan D’As, who was an agonisingly close second in the race last year. Two other yards have tasted success more than once in recent history, they are Jonjo O’Neill (2013 & 2016) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008, 2010 & 2017). The first named saddles Sky Pirate and the latter has Al Dancer representing his local yard this year.

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last 12 renewals. No runner aged older than nine has won this since 1975, so the ten-year-old Aso is well up against it on the trends, while the record of five-year-olds is poor, with only one winner since the turn of the millennium. Six-year-olds have won the race four times since 2000, but recently, it’s seven, eight or nine-year-olds who have dominated – 15 of the 20 winners have come from that age band.

The next trend is related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 139 and 148. This accounts for nine of the last twelve winners, with only Al Ferof, Taquin Du Seuil and Splash Of Ginge having defied this stat, the first two higher and the last named lower. In terms of this year’s field it’s a negative for the top seven horses in racecard order and the bottom three – interestingly, only seven horses fall into this bracket this year: Spiritofthegames, Saint Sonnet, Domaine De L’Isle, Brelan D’As, Kauto Riko, Fidux and Pinson Du Rheu.

Even though the weights can depend on the quality of those entered, it can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this. Since 2000 only Our Vic, Al Ferof and Taquin Du Seuil have carried more than 11st 3lb to victory, so combined with the likely soft ground, this suggests that all the horses above Spiritofthegames could have that count against them. 

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and even though favourites aren’t the ones to be with historically, this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a really big price. In fact, eight of the last ten winners were sent off at an SP of 14/1 or less with Splash Of Ginge (25/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. The likes of Simply the Betts, Mister Fisher, Siruh Du Lac, Al Dancer, Slate House and Spiritofthegames are currently available at odds between five and ten to one.
Shortlist:

BRELAN D’AS – 8/8
Sky Pirate – 7/8
Al Dancer – 6/8

Conclusion

Taking all things into account, only one of the contenders match all eight of the key trends and it’s no surprise that he’s trained by Paul Nicholls, who has a sensational record in this. However, what is the surprise is that it’s not his 4/1 favourite, Saint Sonnet, but his 14/1 chance, BRELAN D’AS. He was an agonisingly close second in the race last year from a 5lb lower mark but even though he’s a bit higher in the weights this year, he’ll actually carry 1lb less in physical weight. This 2m4f trip and the likely soft ground combine to form his ideal conditions and his best efforts have come at this track in big handicaps previously, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t put in another big run here. He was still going well off this mark in the Caspian Caviar when a bad error three out ended his challenge, so given some solid jumping and the brilliant form of his stable, he could go close.
Sky Pirate misses out on the full house of trends by just one, spookily reminiscent of his racing career, where second place, more often than not, is the order of the day. He often travels sweetly into his races, looking all over the winner, only to find absolutely nothing when push comes to shove – again the case on his latest outing when second at Wetherby behind the well-handicapped Cool Mix – so don’t be surprised to see his jockey motionless turning for home, before getting very animated for a short time with little response from the horse. However, even though we can bash the horse, he’s usually a good jumper, is very consistent and with just 10st 2lb on his back, could certainly place.

With six contenders level on six out of eight trends boxes ticked, we have to make a choice on who is the best of those to complete our shortlist and it’s a close race between Spiritofthegames, who is one of the most consistent handicappers at this level that you will ever see, and Al Dancer, who spent most of his novice season over fences running crackers at Graded level and embarks on his second season chasing with a first run in a handicap over the larger obstacles. While Spiritofthegames is a proven commodity in races like this and often goes well fresh, he was pulled up in this last year, so I’ll go with the potential of Al Dancer, who beat a good horse in Master Tommytucker at newton Abbot over 2m5f, while giving 6lb to that rival, who won in serious style at Huntingdon on Tuesday. On that evidence, a mark of 154 given to Al Dancer could well be lenient and if Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge can avoid jumping errors, his class should take him a long way with race fitness assured.

The first ‘big handicap’ of the season and one with a few very strong trends associated with it, starting with a nod to experience. All of the last 12 winners of this race have had at least two runs at this venue and all but one of those have had at least five chase runs. That’s a massive black mark in the column of ante-post favourite, Saint Sonnet, who would not only become the first five-year-old to win the race since Caid Du Berlais in 2014, but has only had three runs over fences in his life so far. Combine that with the abysmal record of favourites over the past decade (0/10) and this well-fancied, unexposed sort comes out as one of the worst value horses you could think of in terms of ticking the trends boxes.

His yard, however, is without doubt the best source of winners and placed horses in the past decade. Nicholls has not only saddled two of the last eight winners, but he’s also trained a placed horse in four of the last six years that he hasn’t won the race. Saint Sonnet still has to be respected as a result, as does the stable’s other runner, Brelan D’As, who was an agonisingly close second in the race last year. Two other yards have tasted success more than once in recent history, they are Jonjo O’Neill (2013 & 2016) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008, 2010 & 2017). The first named saddles Sky Pirate and the latter has Al Dancer representing his local yard this year.

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last 12 renewals. No runner aged older than nine has won this since 1975, so the ten-year-old Aso is well up against it on the trends, while the record of five-year-olds is poor, with only one winner since the turn of the millennium. Six-year-olds have won the race four times since 2000, but recently, it’s seven, eight or nine-year-olds who have dominated – 15 of the 20 winners have come from that age band.

The next trend is related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 139 and 148. This accounts for nine of the last twelve winners, with only Al Ferof, Taquin Du Seuil and Splash Of Ginge having defied this stat, the first two higher and the last named lower. In terms of this year’s field it’s a negative for the top seven horses in racecard order and the bottom three – interestingly, only seven horses fall into this bracket this year: Spiritofthegames, Saint Sonnet, Domaine De L’Isle, Brelan D’As, Kauto Riko, Fidux and Pinson Du Rheu.

Even though the weights can depend on the quality of those entered, it can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this. Since 2000 only Our Vic, Al Ferof and Taquin Du Seuil have carried more than 11st 3lb to victory, so combined with the likely soft ground, this suggests that all the horses above Spiritofthegames could have that count against them. 

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and even though favourites aren’t the ones to be with historically, this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a really big price. In fact, eight of the last ten winners were sent off at an SP of 14/1 or less with Splash Of Ginge (25/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. The likes of Simply the Betts, Mister Fisher, Siruh Du Lac, Al Dancer, Slate House and Spiritofthegames are currently available at odds between five and ten to one.
Shortlist:

BRELAN D’AS – 8/8
Sky Pirate – 7/8
Al Dancer – 6/8

Conclusion

Taking all things into account, only one of the contenders match all eight of the key trends and it’s no surprise that he’s trained by Paul Nicholls, who has a sensational record in this. However, what is the surprise is that it’s not his 4/1 favourite, Saint Sonnet, but his 14/1 chance, BRELAN D’AS. He was an agonisingly close second in the race last year from a 5lb lower mark but even though he’s a bit higher in the weights this year, he’ll actually carry 1lb less in physical weight. This 2m4f trip and the likely soft ground combine to form his ideal conditions and his best efforts have come at this track in big handicaps previously, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t put in another big run here. He was still going well off this mark in the Caspian Caviar when a bad error three out ended his challenge, so given some solid jumping and the brilliant form of his stable, he could go close.
Sky Pirate misses out on the full house of trends by just one, spookily reminiscent of his racing career, where second place, more often than not, is the order of the day. He often travels sweetly into his races, looking all over the winner, only to find absolutely nothing when push comes to shove – again the case on his latest outing when second at Wetherby behind the well-handicapped Cool Mix – so don’t be surprised to see his jockey motionless turning for home, before getting very animated for a short time with little response from the horse. However, even though we can bash the horse, he’s usually a good jumper, is very consistent and with just 10st 2lb on his back, could certainly place.

With six contenders level on six out of eight trends boxes ticked, we have to make a choice on who is the best of those to complete our shortlist and it’s a close race between Spiritofthegames, who is one of the most consistent handicappers at this level that you will ever see, and Al Dancer, who spent most of his novice season over fences running crackers at Graded level and embarks on his second season chasing with a first run in a handicap over the larger obstacles. While Spiritofthegames is a proven commodity in races like this and often goes well fresh, he was pulled up in this last year, so I’ll go with the potential of Al Dancer, who beat a good horse in Master Tommytucker at newton Abbot over 2m5f, while giving 6lb to that rival, who won in serious style at Huntingdon on Tuesday. On that evidence, a mark of 154 given to Al Dancer could well be lenient and if Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge can avoid jumping errors, his class should take him a long way with race fitness assured.

The first ‘big handicap’ of the season and one with a few very strong trends associated with it, starting with a nod to experience. All of the last 12 winners of this race have had at least two runs at this venue and all but one of those have had at least five chase runs. That’s a massive black mark in the column of ante-post favourite, Saint Sonnet, who would not only become the first five-year-old to win the race since Caid Du Berlais in 2014, but has only had three runs over fences in his life so far. Combine that with the abysmal record of favourites over the past decade (0/10) and this well-fancied, unexposed sort comes out as one of the worst value horses you could think of in terms of ticking the trends boxes.

His yard, however, is without doubt the best source of winners and placed horses in the past decade. Nicholls has not only saddled two of the last eight winners, but he’s also trained a placed horse in four of the last six years that he hasn’t won the race. Saint Sonnet still has to be respected as a result, as does the stable’s other runner, Brelan D’As, who was an agonisingly close second in the race last year. Two other yards have tasted success more than once in recent history, they are Jonjo O’Neill (2013 & 2016) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008, 2010 & 2017). The first named saddles Sky Pirate and the latter has Al Dancer representing his local yard this year.

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last 12 renewals. No runner aged older than nine has won this since 1975, so the ten-year-old Aso is well up against it on the trends, while the record of five-year-olds is poor, with only one winner since the turn of the millennium. Six-year-olds have won the race four times since 2000, but recently, it’s seven, eight or nine-year-olds who have dominated – 15 of the 20 winners have come from that age band.

The next trend is related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 139 and 148. This accounts for nine of the last twelve winners, with only Al Ferof, Taquin Du Seuil and Splash Of Ginge having defied this stat, the first two higher and the last named lower. In terms of this year’s field it’s a negative for the top seven horses in racecard order and the bottom three – interestingly, only seven horses fall into this bracket this year: Spiritofthegames, Saint Sonnet, Domaine De L’Isle, Brelan D’As, Kauto Riko, Fidux and Pinson Du Rheu.

Even though the weights can depend on the quality of those entered, it can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this. Since 2000 only Our Vic, Al Ferof and Taquin Du Seuil have carried more than 11st 3lb to victory, so combined with the likely soft ground, this suggests that all the horses above Spiritofthegames could have that count against them. 

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and even though favourites aren’t the ones to be with historically, this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a really big price. In fact, eight of the last ten winners were sent off at an SP of 14/1 or less with Splash Of Ginge (25/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. The likes of Simply the Betts, Mister Fisher, Siruh Du Lac, Al Dancer, Slate House and Spiritofthegames are currently available at odds between five and ten to one.
Shortlist:

BRELAN D’AS – 8/8
Sky Pirate – 7/8
Al Dancer – 6/8

Conclusion

Taking all things into account, only one of the contenders match all eight of the key trends and it’s no surprise that he’s trained by Paul Nicholls, who has a sensational record in this. However, what is the surprise is that it’s not his 4/1 favourite, Saint Sonnet, but his 14/1 chance, BRELAN D’AS. He was an agonisingly close second in the race last year from a 5lb lower mark but even though he’s a bit higher in the weights this year, he’ll actually carry 1lb less in physical weight. This 2m4f trip and the likely soft ground combine to form his ideal conditions and his best efforts have come at this track in big handicaps previously, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t put in another big run here. He was still going well off this mark in the Caspian Caviar when a bad error three out ended his challenge, so given some solid jumping and the brilliant form of his stable, he could go close.
Sky Pirate misses out on the full house of trends by just one, spookily reminiscent of his racing career, where second place, more often than not, is the order of the day. He often travels sweetly into his races, looking all over the winner, only to find absolutely nothing when push comes to shove – again the case on his latest outing when second at Wetherby behind the well-handicapped Cool Mix – so don’t be surprised to see his jockey motionless turning for home, before getting very animated for a short time with little response from the horse. However, even though we can bash the horse, he’s usually a good jumper, is very consistent and with just 10st 2lb on his back, could certainly place.

With six contenders level on six out of eight trends boxes ticked, we have to make a choice on who is the best of those to complete our shortlist and it’s a close race between Spiritofthegames, who is one of the most consistent handicappers at this level that you will ever see, and Al Dancer, who spent most of his novice season over fences running crackers at Graded level and embarks on his second season chasing with a first run in a handicap over the larger obstacles. While Spiritofthegames is a proven commodity in races like this and often goes well fresh, he was pulled up in this last year, so I’ll go with the potential of Al Dancer, who beat a good horse in Master Tommytucker at newton Abbot over 2m5f, while giving 6lb to that rival, who won in serious style at Huntingdon on Tuesday. On that evidence, a mark of 154 given to Al Dancer could well be lenient and if Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge can avoid jumping errors, his class should take him a long way with race fitness assured.

250 chelt 
Golan fortune  277
Good man pat  275
Very tricky race but decent prices available so I'll play here 
Golan fortune 5pts ew 13/2 4places sky
Good man pat 5pts ew 18/1 4places willh

1230 Cheltenham
#1 Duffle Coat for Gordon Elliott being ridden today by Robbie Power is 3 from 3 going into this contest latest success was at Wetherby on the 30th October winning by 8 lengths that over 2 miles having jumped off as the favourite, #2 Adagio comes in seeking a hat trick latest win at Warwick over 2 miles winning by 7.5 lengths prior to that this horse won 3 races on the flat in France with the last of those being at Clairefontaine, #6 Hell Red has had 2 starts one finishing 2nd at Auteuil and a winner performance at Chepstow running for the on fire combination of Paul Nichols and Harry Cobden    Selection: #6 Hell Red
1407 Uttoxeter
#1 Jammy George last seen on 25th October at Aintree finishing 5th on seasonal reappearnce finished last season with 2 wins and is off the same mark and can go well Jack Tudor takes 5lbs off, #2 Head To The Stars was last seen 8 months ago winning at Ludlow over 3m and goes up another 2f for this race Bryony Frost takes over the saddle duties on this one, #4 Dieu Vivant won last time out also at Ludlow at 16/1 in a hunter chase event and returns today with former trainer Oliver Greenall, #8 Rosmuc Relay from the Kim Bailey yard has only had 2 runs over fences finished 2nd last time out at Hereford beaten by 2 lengths back in March this should be a stiffer contest of stamina and should go well, #9 Indy Five starts for a new stable Tom Symonds having moved from David Dennis following a below par 2019 may well go close if the stable change works as showed some promise in the last run at Exeter
Selection: #1 Jammy George
1415 Cheltenham
#2 Simply The Betts has been placed in the last 5 starts winning 4 of those including the last 2 recent successes have been at Cheltenham with Gavin Sheehan climbing aboard again and is difficult to oppose, #3 Mister Fisher finished 4th last time out which was at Cheltenham having won the time prior but at Doncaster today Nico De Boinville takes the ride and could go close, #4 Al Dancer won last time out at Newton Abbot for the Twiston-Davies pairing didnt make a big impression in the top chasing races last season but the Newton Abbot race could bring a change of fortune and should be there, #7 Siruh Du Lac was unbeaten in the 2018/19 season and could be interesting to watch having changed yards to David Pipe and having a wind operation since last season which saw 2 races which resulted in 1 fall and 1 pulled up added to the form if putting that behind could be dangerous, #9 Saint Sonnet for the Nichols and Cobden pairing won 2 starts ago on a chasing debut at Catterick and followed that up by being beaten 13 lengths at Cheltenham in 7th place this horse won listed hurdle races in France    Selection: #7 Siruh Du Luc 
1525 Cheltenham
#1 Kepagge comes in 3 from 3 last season latest 2 were on heavy ground though but has had wind operation since being seen last at Doncaster and is interesting on re-appearance,  #5 Topofthecotswolds for the Twiston-Davies is a horse ive personally been following recently finished 3rd last time out at Cheltenham beaten by 11 lengths having won at Uttoxeter prior to that should hopefully make the top 3, #8 Captain Tom Cat for Dr Newland comes in having secured a hat trick of wins last month at Cheltenham under Mr Leonard who claimed 7lbs then and does again toda, #9 Shinobi from the Kim Bailey yard comes into this race of a win at Wincanton jockey changed to Ciaran Gethings for this race who won on this horse 3 starts ago  at Uttoxeter    Selection: #8 Captain Tom Cat
1540 Lingfield
#1 Judicial won this contest last year for Julie Comacho this year is 2 wins from 5 runs last seen at York in September finishing 4th beaten by 6 lengths and should go well back on the all weather surface, #2 Good Effort has won 4 in a row last 2 at Lingfield most recently was on the 4th November after a break since 1st February looks very difficult to beat, #5 On The Warpath ridden today by William Buick for Charlie Appleby finished last of 9 at Newmarket 17 lengths behind Limato in the Criterion but been off the track since then, #10 Jovial won over C&D in June most recently finished 3rd at Newmarket beaten by 1.5 lengths today Tom Marquand takes over the saddle off Ryan Moore for Sir Michael Stoute        
Selection: #5 On The Warpath
1700 Wolverhampton
#2 Plansina is a C&D winner latest being 2 starts ago on the 19th October finished 3rd on the last start 2 weeks ago could go close again with Finley Marsh taking 3lbs off again, #4 Global Style is still a maiden after 21 runs on the flat but did come 2nd last time out at Windsor over 1m that was at 20/1 in a 13 runner race could sneak into the frame if continuing on from that, #6 Josiebond won at Redcar on the 3rd November on heavy ground over 1m and prior to that finished 4th on last visit to Wolverhampton in a 7f contest the extra 2f in this race should make this horse competitive, #8 Grandstand dead heated at Wolverhampton 2 weeks ago over 1m 1/2f in a 12 runner handicap at 22/1 and Tyler Heard takes a valuble 7lbs off again like 2 weeks ago, #9 Enzo hasnt won in 11 races but did finish 2nd last time out over C&D and has blinkers applied for this race could make the frame if conitnuing that form on, #13 Van Dijk is 0 from 13 currently finished 3rd 2 weeks ago at Wolverhampton over 1m 1/2f with an apprentice on board this time Cam Hardie takes over for the ride again could make the top 3        Selection: #8 Grandstand
1900 Wolverhampton
#1 Tornado Queen is a C&D Winner latest in September 2 starts ago most recently though was a disappointing 12th at Chelmsford although will have a chance if returning to Wolverhampton form and jockey switch to David Nolan for this contest, #2 Buckingham has gone 17 races without a win did finish 2nd last time at Chelmsford 3 weeks ago beaten by short short of 2 lengths Charlie Bishop takes over from Joe Fanning who rode last time this is a big chance to break a winless streak, #3 Flying Dragon for Richard Hannon won C&D by 1 Length on 13th October that ended a 2 time unplaced streak and Sean Levey retains the ride, #5 Athimad C&D winner 2 weeks ago has gone up 3lbs for that but with Luke Morris retaining the ride can go close once again to making the top 3 , #9 Dreamseller is a C&D winner and has 3 wins from 9 starts in 2020 last of which at Musselburgh in September most recently finished 5th at the scottish venue one to consider for Tim Easterby's yard, #10 Eponina won at Leicester last time out nearly 3 weeks ago last AW start was at Chelmsford on the run before that finishing 3rd an outside chance with Theodore Ladd taking 3lbs off, #12 Critical Thinking is a 6 time course winner most recent being 2 months ago goes up in trip for this contest by 1f having finished 6th last time out and has to enter calculations at a bigger price as was only beaten by 3.5 lengths    Selection: #2 Buckingham


Sha Tin
0500 - 8 Amazing Agility   - 9th
0530 - 4 United We Stand  - 2nd
0600 - 5 Super Red Dragon  - WON 10/1
0630 - 1 Golden Four  -  8th
0700 - 3 Helaku Knight  - 11th
0735 - 1 Decisive Action  -  5th
0805 - 3 Buddies   -  WON 8/1
0835 - 12 Joyful Fortune  -  2nd
0910 - 6 Circuit Three  -  3rd
0945 - 14 Natural Storm  - 2nd

2.15 Cheltenham, Simply The Betts 9/2
2.15 Cheltenham, Siruh Du Lac 12/1 ew
2.50 Cheltenham, On The Blind Side  5/1
3.25 Cheltenham, Kepagge 6/1
Double 17/1 Cheltenham 
Siruh Du Lac has a lot going for him. I expect On The Blind Side to run a big race even though he’s known as a chaser now. Couldn’t ignore him at that price. Kepagge is open to more progress and will appreciate the rain. 
 
Edited post because Tea Clipper non runner. Single bet added with simply the Betts . It’s also effected my ew play with On The Blindside who’s now a straight win bet . 

Saturday sees the final day of the Spring Carnival in Melbourne with plenty of Group action at Sandown. In NSW the main action is at Newcastle where the million dollar Hunter is the feature. With the end of the Spring Carnival I am going to make this my final Australian preview for now. The original intention was to do them just well there was no racing in the UK, but it went well so I carried on and it made sense to cover the spring action. There will probably still be the odd tip from time to time but with the hunter chase season not too far away I want to take a break. Tomorrow I have bets in 6 races.
Sandown R5 (3.30am)
Kenya went off favourite for the 2018 Cambridgeshire, but he finished last. Clearly something was up that on what was his final start for Aidan O'Brien. He wasn't seen again until June when he went off joint favourite for a handicap at Flemington. Although he finished 10th he wasn't beaten that far and he was then spelled. He returned at Mornington at the start of the month and he looked good when making all to win. He was a G3 winner as a 2yo, finished 2nd in a G2 at Leopardstown and won the Irish Cambridgeshire. The win last time suggests he has the ability he had in Ireland still and he can land this G3 contest.
Kenya @ 7/5 with Bet365
Sandown R7 (4.45am)
The Sandown Cup is over 3200m and there are a couple I like here. Sin To Win won for the first time in a long time on Melbourne Cup day and he did it in good style. This race is tougher, but he's been in good form and is 1/1 at the trip. The fact we know he stays is a crucial one for me. The other one I like is top weight and ex-French runner San Huberto. He landed a G2 over 3000m at Chantilly in June and certainly has the class to land this contest. His first run in Australia was in the Geelong Cup and he only beat one home, but that wasn't a surprise given he was a big drifter and the trip would have been on the short side for him. He's better than he showed there and looks over priced.
Sin To Win @ 3/1 with Bet365
San Huberto e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Sandown R8 (5.25am)
Onto the G2 Zipping Classic next and I have to go with Future Score. I thought they might have run him in the Sandown Cup, but connections have San Huberto for that so have run him here instead. I thought he was unlucky not to win the Hotham last time. Although the winner Ashrun had to come from further back, he was able to get up some speed whereas Future Score couldn't get a run and he finished strongly once he did get a gap. If he gets a gap sooner for me he wins the race. He is the main bet, but I have to cover the favourite Avilius. At his best he is the best horse in the race and although he hasn't won for a while he has been in pretty good form for most of this prep. I'd ignore the Melbourne Cup run last time as he was always out the back, but the Caulfield Cup run was a good one as he didn't get much luck in running. I have to have him onside.
Future Score @ 4/1 with Bet365
Avilius @ 3/1 with Bet365
Sandown R9 (6.05am)
Gold Fields is better off with All Too Huiying based on their Seymour Cup 1st and 2nd last month and he then finished a fast finishing 2nd in a Listed Race on Melbourne Cup day. That came over today's trip so although he has never won over this far he is clearly capable of doing so. The other one I like is West Wind. She is coming back down in trip, but she is in flying form at the moment having won her last 3. I thought she was especially impressive at Moonee Valley last time and the 2nd has won a G2 since so the form is rock solid. If she copes with the drop down in trip she has a big chance for me.
Gold Fields @ 5/1 with Bet365
West Wind @ 13/2 with Bet365
Newcastle R4 (3.50am)
Yes he has top weight in this BM72, but he does look a class above. He was racing in the winter and running well enough on heavy tracks, but his best form is on good tracks. His 1st run of the prep was his first start on a dry track for a while and he ran a very good 4th over 1000m. He didn't get a clear run either as he didn't get a gap until 200m out and if he gets a gap sooner he is likely to have won the race. I think he can atone her.
Superium @ 9/4 with William Hill
Newcastle R7 (5.45am) 
The feature race on the card and whilst Ranier was tempting I have gone for Trumbull instead. He was running so consistently last prep and got a deserved win when landing a Listed Race in June at Rosehill. He improved on that 1st up this prep when winning a G3 at Randwick last month. The 1st 2 pulled clear of the rest and stepping up to 1300m is going to suit as well. The draw could have been better, but on the back of that last effort I think he can land this massive prize.
Trumbull @ 9/2 with Bet365

4:05 – Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle.

This is an interesting novices’ handicap hurdle and one with a plethora of possible winners, but looking at the history of this race in recent years, it seems we’re looking for an improving four or five-year-old with the potential to rate much higher. Edgardo Sol, Ifandbutwhynot, Quick Jack, Chesterfield, A Hare Breath and Magic Dancer are all on this race’s roll of honour, so whichever horse wins this is likely to go on to better things.

The rating band to focus on is between 113 and 123 as eight of the last ten winners have been rated within that and again, eight of the last ten have been four or five, so that quickly chops down the shortlist to just five contenders: Panic Attack, Art Approval, Takeit Easy, Chasamax and Princess T. All have had at least one run so far this season, so race fitness won’t be an issue, but the likely softening of the ground might cause problems for Princess T, who steps up significantly in class here after an 8lb hike in the weights for her last win, so she’s passed over on this occasion.

The most popular of those here is likely to be PANIC ATTACK, who seems to enjoy softer ground and already has experience of Cheltenham when tailed off in the Champion Bumper last year, and you can certainly see why. She was soundly beaten by the smart Vegas Blue at Huntingdon on her good ground hurdling debut at the beginning of October but made good on the promise of that run when comfortably taking a Uttoxeter maiden hurdle over the minimum trip two weeks ago. She’s been a much-hyped mare after her runaway Listed bumper win at Market Rasen when trained by Willie Mullins, so she’s got a long way to go to match the talk and that initial impression, but luckily for her, she does seem to have the required talent to be better than this mark of 119, which could turn out to be pretty lenient if the ground turns soft - I’m sure connections were surprised to see her given such a low mark for sure. She’s a big, rangy mare who will probably want further than this in time, something her Uttoxeter win showed as she struggled to burn her challengers off until the final furlong or two, even though the overall time of the race was good, but this stiff two-mile trip and the softening ground should play right into PANIC ATTACK’s hands as long as the race doesn’t turn into a sprint. However, all four of the shortlisted horses are of a similar mould – all look as if two miles is their bare minimum, but that’s always a good thing at Cheltenham, where you absolutely need to stay well and finish your race off well – and they should ensure that this is not run at a crawl.

Fergal O’Brien and Paddy Brennan won this last year with the ill-fated Red Hot Chilly and they’re back again this year with Art Approval, who has only had two runs over hurdles in this country and, just a four-year-old, surely has loads of improvement under his bonnet. He’s one who looks as if two and a half miles would suit him better, but any softening of the ground should help him here and if he can stop himself getting too far back, he’ll be staying on well up the hill. His recent second place behind Faivoir has been boosted after that rival was a solid fourth in a Sandown Park handicap hurdle from a mark of 128, so his mark of 118 looks very fair and he can go well.
Chasamax will no doubt be up there when it comes to the market, being from the powerful Nicky Henderson yard, and his latest run was also a promising effort, second behind the extremely well-handicapped Robinshill over hurdles at Ludlow. He may not want the ground to soften much from what it is now, but his second to the now 141-rated Tea Clipper on his hurdling debut at Kempton a year ago makes his mark of 115 look very lenient indeed and even though he may be best over further in the future, this kind of test looks ideal at this point. He’s entitled to have come on for that Ludlow run and as long as the ground doesn’t get too testing, he’ll be there or thereabouts.
Finally, Takeit Easy may be overlooked a little because of his yard, but the Pam Sly-trained five-year-old won very snugly indeed at Huntingdon last time out – he could be very much on the upgrade and well capable of defying this 8lb rise in a better race. The whip was only drawn after the final hurdle on his last run and he drifted left under pressure, so while he’s clearly still learning, there was also rather obviously more in the tank for Kielan Woods to call on if needed. Again, this stiffer test of two miles should suit and while he’s never raced on anything more testing than good to soft ground and the race he won was a modest affair, he could run very well at a price that looks a little too big.
 

PANIC ATTACK 1pt E/W @ 5/1 (bet365 - 1/4 odds, 4 places)

1:50 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase 
Only nine line up here for this valuable handicap chase, but it’s certainly a case of quality over quantity with six of the field rated over 140. It’s difficult to envisage the bottom two, Azzuri and Full Glass, playing a hand here due to some pretty poor recent form for the former and the latter having his first run for Aytach Sadik after coming back over from France. Both have cases in terms of being well-handicapped in theory, but this looks a very hard assignment for a sudden return to form.
Born Survivor is another who could well be nicely handicapped, but again hasn’t been in winning form since April 2019 and his most recent run at Wetherby wasn’t particularly encouraging. However, this drop back in trip is an interesting move for a horse who hasn’t raced over two miles since 2018. His last four races, he hasn’t seen it out over two and a half, so I wonder if this stiff two miles with an uphill finish might see him in a better light, especially given that this Class 2 contest is theoretically a drop in class for the nine-year-old. He does prefer good ground though, so if the forecast rain turns the ground soft, he might find a couple with too much boot for him.
The race won here in October by the wildly impressive Rouge Vif could be an excellent pointer to this as Beat The Judge, On The Slopes and Ballywood were all in opposition that day and finished third, fifth and sixth respectively. Solely on the numbers, Ballywood is slightly better off with both of his rivals and is now down to his lowest mark since his last win, just 2lb higher than when winning at Ludlow off top weight in March 2019, but he won’t want any rain to fall and if good isn’t in the going description, he could struggle against some high-class and in-form rivals.
Beat The Judge was the highest finisher in that race, staying on strongly from the rear of the field after being outpaced on the quick ground before the field turned for home. The five-year-old has been improving nicely for trainer Gary Moore and is a horse the yard clearly like. He was a decent eighth on soft ground in the County Hurdle last season from a mark of 138 and given how he’s taken to fences like a duck to water, his mark of 142 should be no barrier to another big run. There’s no Rouge Vif in this, so you would think he’s got a really good chance of making an impact in this, but he’s another who has been taken out of races on account of soft ground before, so watch the weather – if the ground is good to soft, he’ll have a big chance .
However, the final horse in that trio, ON THE SLOPES, will certainly not mind any rain that falls and already has a good handicap third to his name here on soft ground behind Simply The Betts and Imperial Aura back in January. That race has worked out ridiculously well and he won twice at the end of last season in facile fashion before running extremely well again at this venue on his seasonal reappearance from a career-high mark of 143. He’s generously been dropped a pound for that run and given that race was run on quicker ground than he’d ideally want and, in hindsight, chasing Rouge Vif on the front end was a seriously unenviable task, this softer ground will suit him perfectly and he’s entitled to have come on again fitness-wise for that. Richard Johnson has been booked in the saddle by Chris Gordon here and there’s no better jockey to ride a horse who enjoys being right up with the pace, so everything possible is trending in the right direction for ON THE SLOPES. No matter which way I look at this race, it’s incredibly hard to keep this horse out of the frame and he seems an incredibly solid proposition here.

Of course, the top two in racecard order certainly pose a big threat to the selection as both are classy sorts who are probably deserving of their 150+ marks. Paul Nicholls’ yard is flying at the moment and Magic Saint is a classy chaser who could certainly play a hand after running a decent race on his reappearance in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree three weeks ago. He’s been dropped 2lb for finishing a nine-length sixth in that race and combined with jockey Bryan Carver’s 5lb claim, he effectively can run from a mark of 147 here. That’s the same mark from which he won at Newbury last year, beating the 2018 winner of this race, Bun Doran, by a head over the two-mile trip. The drop back to two miles could be a good move for a horse who has seemed one-paced on soft ground over two and a half, but his chance here relies on there being a strong pace and with only nine in the field and precious few ‘front runners’, he may not get that. Also, his record of RPRs in this country dips significantly when he runs at Cheltenham – elsewhere, it reads 152, 152, 156, 150 since 2019, but here at National Hunt HQ, it reads 145, 140, 141, so he’s got his effectiveness at this track to prove as well.

The selection’s biggest problem, though, could come in the shape of the Venetia Williams-trained Fanion D’Estruval, who was a striking winner of a novice handicap chase on his first start after coming over from France, making a mockery of a mark of 137. That Newbury win has been franked by not only the runner up, Sully D’Oc AA, who was a good winner of an Ascot handicap chase two weeks ago from a mark of 125, but also by the third, Southfield Stone, who is now rated 146 over fences and won a novice chase over two and a half miles here at Cheltenham at the end of October. Fanion D’Estruval’s next start wasn’t so impressive, though, as he finished fifth in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase, but the sharper track may have contributed to that as he stayed all the way to the line and just found a few too speedy for him. This track should suit him, as will any rain that falls, so the only question is whether this mark of 150 is harsh or not. Given his proximity to the likes of Al Dancer (154), Grand Sancy (149) and Rouge Vif (bolted up from 156 in the aforementioned Cheltenham handicap and now rated 164), you’d be minded to think that it’s fair and may even be workable. He does have to prove his race fitness here though while conceding plenty of weight, so those factors could be enough to swing the scales in ON THE SLOPES’ favour, even if I fully expect Fanion D’Estruval to run well here.
 

ON THE SLOPES 1pt E/W @ 4/1 (888Sport)

1:15 - Markel Insurance Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 

Kicking off the exciting Cheltenham Open Meeting is a Class 3 handicap hurdle with a full 18-runner field, run over 2m5f and for horses rated 0-125 - it certianly looks tricky on paper. 
 
Where to start in such a big field? Right as the top of the market is Steal A March, from the mighty Henderson stable and he has only had the 3 runs over hurdles so far, including one win last season. His seasonal debut wasn’t terrible , so he could be dangerous off the same mark off 115, with Jack Tudor in the saddle this time round, perhaps one of the best pilots for this type of event. Another big stable represented in the race is the Fergal O’Brien yard and he sends Lungarno Palace. This nine-year-old continues to slide down the weights after not recording a victory since 2018, but he has failed to produce anything of note over the larger obstacles and still looks well-held over hurdles too judging by his last run here at HQ. 
Rex Dingle has been a jockey in-form for the Honeyball stable recently but today has the chance on-board The Eaglehaslanded for Jeremy Scott. He has only had the one run since switching from the Nicholls stable and that was over his preferred 3m trip, in a much tougher race than this. He is not sure to appreciate the step down to 2m5f and isn’t in the best of form so it’s probably best to look elsewhere. Others right at the top of the weights in the field include Morraman, who seemed to keep hitting the crossbar last season, and Playa Blanca. The latter makes more appeal on his recent form, winning 4 out of his last 5 attempts over hurdles - he will be a key player once again, if handling the step up to 2m5f. 
Hawthorne Cottage ended last season with a double, winning at both Doncaster and Plumpton, and he will need to find that sort of form again to get competitive here, after a poor seasonal debut. Castle Robin ended last season with some solid form too, backing that up this season with a Novice win and he could go well again from a mark of 119, which certainly looks fair. Tel’Art had Rakhine State six lengths back when they last met and despite being off the same mark now, the former makes more appeal with some consistent runs under his belt and the handy 6lb claim of Luca Morgan to aid. 
After winning this race last year, David Pipe’s bids to make it two wins on the bounce. Induno is very lightly raced and scored at the first time of asking over hurdles, before a disappointing run when he was last seen in December 2019, being sent off at odds on. He didn’t seem to stay the 2m4f that day, so without race fitness, it’s a leap of faith to trust him too much going up to 2m5f, even though he market suggests that last run was an aberration. Magic Dancer has only the 3 wins in 26 attempts over hurdles but has placed in more than half of his efforts, so the eight-year-old must be considered. He’s now 1lb lower than his last winning mark but is yet to score since having his wind operation back in 2018 and the step up in trip is again a worry. Neil Mulholland teams up with Harry Reed and with a handy 3lb taken off his back, Tango Boy is another to note. After hitting the frame twice towards the end of last season, he deserves some respect off a mark of 115. He does try this trip for the first time today, so there’s a question to be answered there. 

Right down the bottom of the handicap is Presenting Yates who is yet to make an impact over hurdles (0-4) - despite receiving weight all round, he should struggle again but HEAVEY is another who has a chance to make the most of a low weight. Despite a modest effort last time out over fences, he looked a very progressive hurdler previously, and after only being outside of the money once over the smaller obstacles, he has got to be considered once again. He was travelling the best in the field when he made a mistake at Fontwell (falling 2 from home) in September and looked like he was going to win easily that day over 3m2f. The six-year-old was then only denied by a neck over three miles and looked unlucky once again to not get his head in front, after edging right on the run in. The drop back down to 2m5f and the 4lb rise in the weights for that effort should be no issue on this stiff track and he looks a great E/W shout at a big price, especially if stamina becomes important as the weather changes. 
 

HEAVEY 0.5pts E/W @ 14/1 (William Hill - 6 Places)

Started writing out the first two and then my computer shut down unexpectedly and didn't have time to rewrite those ones I'm afraid!
All prices Bet365:
 
11.45 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Onlyfoolsownhorses @ 10/1
12.18 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Dubh Des Champs @ 9/1
 
1.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Castle Robin @ 9/1
I do suspect the favourite is well handicapped but is a short price in a competitive race and I think Castle Robin is a rock solid alternative. Likely to race off handy and has been running consistently well in novice races with its mark not looking restrictive. He'll see this trip out around here strongly and off a fair mark could be tough to peg back.
1.50 Cheltenham - 2pts win Fanion D'Estruval @ 9/2
By no means the finished article and can throw in some mistakes but has a big engine and there's still scope off this mark. Was an impressive handicap winner last season (runner up has won well since) and shaped very well in a novice at Kempton when last seen despite the race not being run to suit and him making jumping errors. If he can iron those out today I think he'll take a lot of beating.
2.50 Southwell - 1pt e/w Ballymilan @ 9/1
Definitely has a win in her off this sort of mark having shaped well in novice races despite lacking a bit of tactical speed at times. Tends to finish off quite well having hit a flat spot and it was a similar story at Hexham on handicap debut last time. If she's held up off the pace it could be the same story again here unless they a good gallop but I'm hoping they make more use of her today, try and lessen the blow of any flat spot and keep her towards the head of affairs throughout. If that happens, she has a big chance.
3.35 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Wild Romance @ 9/1
I backed Does He Know when winning here last time and was impressed but at the prices I think Wild Romance is very interesting getting weight as she did well to win a decent novice hurdle over 2m3f last time, staying on well to lead late in the day and doing much the best of those held up. Bred to stay so plenty more to come now getting a stiffer test and I think she'll be a big player today.
4.05 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Chasamax @ 11/1
Favourite is well handicapped clearly but beat a poor field last time out and can be taken on in a competitive heat. Chasamax clearly needs a sound surface so you can ignore a couple of lesser efforts on soft and went well on handicap debut last time when a staying on second. This more galloping track will suit and whilst I'm not sure he's thrown in, has some good form on a sound surface including when 2nd to Tea Clipper on hurdling debut and this sort of test ought to suit so appeals at an each-way price.

1:50 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase 
Only nine line up here for this valuable handicap chase, but it’s certainly a case of quality over quantity with six of the field rated over 140. It’s difficult to envisage the bottom two, Azzuri and Full Glass, playing a hand here due to some pretty poor recent form for the former and the latter having his first run for Aytach Sadik after coming back over from France. Both have cases in terms of being well-handicapped in theory, but this looks a very hard assignment for a sudden return to form.
Born Survivor is another who could well be nicely handicapped, but again hasn’t been in winning form since April 2019 and his most recent run at Wetherby wasn’t particularly encouraging. However, this drop back in trip is an interesting move for a horse who hasn’t raced over two miles since 2018. His last four races, he hasn’t seen it out over two and a half, so I wonder if this stiff two miles with an uphill finish might see him in a better light, especially given that this Class 2 contest is theoretically a drop in class for the nine-year-old. He does prefer good ground though, so if the forecast rain turns the ground soft, he might find a couple with too much boot for him.
The race won here in October by the wildly impressive Rouge Vif could be an excellent pointer to this as Beat The Judge, On The Slopes and Ballywood were all in opposition that day and finished third, fifth and sixth respectively. Solely on the numbers, Ballywood is slightly better off with both of his rivals and is now down to his lowest mark since his last win, just 2lb higher than when winning at Ludlow off top weight in March 2019, but he won’t want any rain to fall and if good isn’t in the going description, he could struggle against some high-class and in-form rivals.
Beat The Judge was the highest finisher in that race, staying on strongly from the rear of the field after being outpaced on the quick ground before the field turned for home. The five-year-old has been improving nicely for trainer Gary Moore and is a horse the yard clearly like. He was a decent eighth on soft ground in the County Hurdle last season from a mark of 138 and given how he’s taken to fences like a duck to water, his mark of 142 should be no barrier to another big run. There’s no Rouge Vif in this, so you would think he’s got a really good chance of making an impact in this, but he’s another who has been taken out of races on account of soft ground before, so watch the weather – if the ground is good to soft, he’ll have a big chance .
However, the final horse in that trio, ON THE SLOPES, will certainly not mind any rain that falls and already has a good handicap third to his name here on soft ground behind Simply The Betts and Imperial Aura back in January. That race has worked out ridiculously well and he won twice at the end of last season in facile fashion before running extremely well again at this venue on his seasonal reappearance from a career-high mark of 143. He’s generously been dropped a pound for that run and given that race was run on quicker ground than he’d ideally want and, in hindsight, chasing Rouge Vif on the front end was a seriously unenviable task, this softer ground will suit him perfectly and he’s entitled to have come on again fitness-wise for that. Richard Johnson has been booked in the saddle by Chris Gordon here and there’s no better jockey to ride a horse who enjoys being right up with the pace, so everything possible is trending in the right direction for ON THE SLOPES. No matter which way I look at this race, it’s incredibly hard to keep this horse out of the frame and he seems an incredibly solid proposition here.

Of course, the top two in racecard order certainly pose a big threat to the selection as both are classy sorts who are probably deserving of their 150+ marks. Paul Nicholls’ yard is flying at the moment and Magic Saint is a classy chaser who could certainly play a hand after running a decent race on his reappearance in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree three weeks ago. He’s been dropped 2lb for finishing a nine-length sixth in that race and combined with jockey Bryan Carver’s 5lb claim, he effectively can run from a mark of 147 here. That’s the same mark from which he won at Newbury last year, beating the 2018 winner of this race, Bun Doran, by a head over the two-mile trip. The drop back to two miles could be a good move for a horse who has seemed one-paced on soft ground over two and a half, but his chance here relies on there being a strong pace and with only nine in the field and precious few ‘front runners’, he may not get that. Also, his record of RPRs in this country dips significantly when he runs at Cheltenham – elsewhere, it reads 152, 152, 156, 150 since 2019, but here at National Hunt HQ, it reads 145, 140, 141, so he’s got his effectiveness at this track to prove as well.

The selection’s biggest problem, though, could come in the shape of the Venetia Williams-trained Fanion D’Estruval, who was a striking winner of a novice handicap chase on his first start after coming over from France, making a mockery of a mark of 137. That Newbury win has been franked by not only the runner up, Sully D’Oc AA, who was a good winner of an Ascot handicap chase two weeks ago from a mark of 125, but also by the third, Southfield Stone, who is now rated 146 over fences and won a novice chase over two and a half miles here at Cheltenham at the end of October. Fanion D’Estruval’s next start wasn’t so impressive, though, as he finished fifth in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase, but the sharper track may have contributed to that as he stayed all the way to the line and just found a few too speedy for him. This track should suit him, as will any rain that falls, so the only question is whether this mark of 150 is harsh or not. Given his proximity to the likes of Al Dancer (154), Grand Sancy (149) and Rouge Vif (bolted up from 156 in the aforementioned Cheltenham handicap and now rated 164), you’d be minded to think that it’s fair and may even be workable. He does have to prove his race fitness here though while conceding plenty of weight, so those factors could be enough to swing the scales in ON THE SLOPES’ favour, even if I fully expect Fanion D’Estruval to run well here.
 

ON THE SLOPES 1pt E/W @ 4/1 (888Sport)

3.00 Gowran Park – Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase – Thursday 25th January  
This valuable handicap chase has been won in recent years by the likes of Djakadam, On His Own and Champagne West.   The strongest trend concerns a horse’s official handicap rating and the ceiling appears to be set at 145, with only one winner in the last ten years having won off a higher mark. The horse in question was the most recent winner Champagne West, who won off 154 twelve months ago, but even so, it seems best to focus on those below this mark. A cause for concern for supporters of Champagne West, A Genie In Abottle, Ucello Conti and Pleasant Company.   Another strong trend is that all but two of the last ten winners were aged between eight and ten. In fact, there have only been six winners from outside this bracket since 1988, which doesn’t bode well for the quartet of seven-year-olds (A Genie In Abottle, Monbeg Notorious, Call The Taxie and Woods Well) as well as the eleven-year-old Isleofhopendreams.   As well as experience, in such a big field, it is important that a horse’s jumping is up to scratch and this is backed up by the fact that all of the last ten winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their chasing careers. The only member of the field with question marks over their jumping this time around is Thunder And Roses.   Stamina is also an important factor to take into account when searching for the winner of this particular race. Seven of the last ten winners had winning form over 3m or further and with the ground likely to be heavy on Thursday, I wouldn’t want to be taking any chances on a horse’s stamina. There are seven horses without proven form over 3m, namely Ucello Conti, Flaxen Flare, Isleofhopendreams, Call The Taxie, Woods Well, Fine Theatre and Space Cadet.   In terms of form, normally in these big handicaps, it pays to side with horses arriving on the back of a victory or placed effort but the evidence here suggests we should be thinking outside the box. Seven of the last ten winners had finished outside of the first three on their most recent outing, five of which had failed to complete.   Weight can also be an important consideration in these competitive handicaps and the trends suggest that 11st is the ceiling, as only four of the last ten winners had won carrying a bigger burden. It is worth bearing in mind that three of those four exceptions came in the last four years so perhaps the pattern is shifting but on the whole, I would prefer to focus on those with a lower weight.   The final factor to consider is the betting and it is fair to say that favourites have had a pretty torrid time in recent years. We have to go back to 2006 to find the last winning favourite and in that time we have had winners priced at 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1 so we shouldn’t be afraid to take a chance on one at a big price.   Shortlist
WOUNDED WARRIOR – 7/7
Out Sam – 6/7
Pleasant Company – 6/7   Conclusion   Taking everything into account, we have just one horse who matches all seven of our trends and that is WOUNDED WARRIOR. Noel Meade’s nine-year-old has been struggling for form of late but he was sixth in this race twelve months ago off a 14lb higher mark. He travelled well for a long way on that occasion before his big weight (11st 5lb) took its toll in the closing stages. He needs to improve on what he has shown recently but he is likely to appreciate the refitting of cheekpieces which he wore last year and I think he can run better than his sizeable odds suggest.   Just missing out on the top spot is Out Sam, who is one of six runners in the race for Gordon Elliott. The nine-year-old was previously trained in Britain by Warren Greatrex and Nicky Henderson but seemed to lose his way and needs a change of scenery to reignite his enthusiasm for the game. He is entitled to come on for his first outing for his new yard over Christmas and with crack 3lb conditional James Bowen coming over to take the ride, he looks to have plenty going in his favour.
The shortlist is completed by Pleasant Company who was fourth in the race twelve months ago. That was the ten-year-old’s first start for nearly a year and having won a Grade 3 chase next time, it is hard to argue that he didn’t improve for his first run of the season. He races here off a mark of 146 which is just above the 145 ceiling but he has a run under his belt this time around and it would be no surprise to see him go close once again this year.

MY Ante post Diary Part 2  
Champion Hurdle   Following Faugheen’s successful return to action a couple of weeks ago, all eyes were on Buveur D’Air at Newcastle on Saturday and Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old didn’t disappoint as he ran out a ready winner of the Fighting Fifth. In truth, it wasn’t a vintage renewal of the race but he travelled smoothly throughout under Barry Geraghty before stretching clear of his rivals in the closing stages. For all that the opposition may not have been up to much, you have to be impressed with the performance of the winner, particularly how quick and nimble he is over his hurdles. Barry Geraghty said on Sunday that he felt Buveur D’Air had filled into himself over the summer and he could potentially be a better horse this term.
Ultimately, only time will tell whether he can get beat Faugheen but that clash could come sooner than we thought, with the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day likely to be Buveur D’Air’s next port of call. The race was won in 2014 and 2015 by Faugheen and although plans are yet to be confirmed for Willie Mullins’ nine-year-old there would have to be a strong chance that the pair could clash at Christmas.
Over in Ireland, Apple’s Jade put up what was arguably a career-best performance to win the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle on Sunday. Gordon Elliott’s mare was brilliant in beating off Nichols Canyon by nine lengths and although the Mares’ Hurdle remains her number one target at the Festival according to her owner, the temptation to run her in the Champion or the Stayers’ Hurdle is likely to increase as the season goes on.
 
Champion Chase   Not much to report on in this division this week but both Douvan and Un De Sceaux remain on course to make their seasonal reappearances this weekend according to Willie Mullins. The former is set to tackle the Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday, with the latter waiting until the following day to run in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork.
In terms of Saturday’s race, there were 11 entries confirmed when the Tingle Creek closed on Monday. Ar Mad, Fox Norton, Politologue and Special Tiara look the most likely dangers to Willie Mullins’ runner, who also left in Un De Sceaux at the five-day stage.
Willie Mullins also spoke of Min on Sunday who he was reluctant to commit to either a 2m or 2m4f campaign this term. It is still the early part of the season so there is no need to make a firm decision at this stage but he did suggest that himself and Douvan will be kept apart where possible. That raises the possibility of one stepping up in trip come March but as I suggested last week, I would suggest that Min is more likely to run in the Ryanair than his older stablemate.
 
Stayers’ Hurdle
Beer Goggles put himself forward as a possible Stayers’ Hurdle contender with a game victory in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury on Friday. Richard Woollacott’s six-year-old has improved no end since joining the yard last December and having started on a mark of 115, he now finds himself rated upwards of 150. It has to be said that I thought he got the run of the race out in front but there was no doubting his attitude in the closing stages as he saw off the challenge of race-fit rival in Unowhatimeanharry before drawing clear on the run to the line. He is clearly improving all the time but I would imagine his next intended target, the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January is likely to tell us more about his chances at The Festival.
I briefly mentioned Unowhatimeanharry who ran a fine race despite being beaten on the day. It is worth remembering that he was conceding 6lb to most of the field here and although you would have fancied him to pick up the winner in the closing stages, he probably gave him too much rope. He remains a top-class staying hurdler and I would imagine we will see him next in the Long Walk at Ascot.
Over in Ireland on Sunday, last year’s Stayers Hurdle winner Nichols Canyon lost little in defeat behind Apple’s Jade at Fairyhouse. Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old does have a good record fresh but I think he just found a race-fit Apple’s Jade too hot to handle on the day. He still looked to be in with a chance on the run to the second last but having pecked on landing, his chances of victory were ended. He ran on again after the last but he should benefit physically from this run and although he has plenty of form on soft ground, I think over these longer trips, he is better on a sounder surface.
 
Gold Cup
Having been pretty positive in last week’s post about the prospect of Thistlecrack returning, I have to admit I was pretty disappointed by his display at Newbury on Friday. I think that was largely down to the fact that the comments coming from the stable beforehand indicated he was spot on in terms of fitness for his return to action. His trainer has since admitted that they talked him up too much and having watched the race a few times, I am happy to agree with the assessment that he travelled well into the race but just got tired in the closing stages of the race. Clearly you would have preferred him to finish ahead of the likes of Taquin Du Seuil but Tom Scudamore was kind on the horse once he realised his chance was gone. The bookmakers reacted to his defeat by pushing him out to as big as 12/1 which was fair enough considering the display and you have to admit that he now goes to the King George with plenty to prove. That run should have done him good in terms of fitness but the Tizzard team now have three weeks to get him right for what looks likely to be a vintage renewal of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. In terms of the Gold Cup, it all depends how he comes he fares in the King George but I certainly wouldn’t be tearing up our betting slip just yet.   The below-par return to action of Thistlecrack has also forced Colin Tizzard into a rethink of plans for last year’s Gold Cup third Native River. The plan had been to give him one run before the Gold Cup but now connections are thinking two runs would probably be better for him. He is likely to start in the New Year and having started last season over hurdles, it would be no surprise to see him have a spin over the smaller obstacles on his first run back.
The big winner in the Gold Cup market this weekend was Might Bite whose form got a significant boost with stablemate Whisper finishing an agonising second in the Ladbrokes Trophy. I would be the first to admit that before Saturday, I thought Whisper had it all to do off a big weight but he looks to have really improved this term, getting the better of Clan Des Obeaux at Kempton prior to his brave effort at the weekend. Having said that, I think he would need to step up again to play a significant role in the Gold Cup come March, so I think he is short enough at around the 12/1 or 14/1 quoted by most firms.
We may get a better idea of the Irish Gold Cup contenders at the weekend with Sizing John and Djakadam both possible runners in Sunday’s John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown. The latter has won the last two renewals of the race but should Jessica Harrington’s Gold Cup winner turn up, it will be a better field than he has faced in each of the last two years.
 
Novice Chasers
JLT   Death Duty moved to the top of several lists for the JLT following an authoritative victory in the Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday. Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old jumped well out in front under Davy Russell and although most of his rivals were still in touch turning for home, he quickened up well between the final two fences and stayed on well to the line to win by three and a quarter lengths. As a novice hurdler he was very exciting at this time of year before disappointing at Cheltenham in the Spring and I was interested to hear his trainer discuss that on Sunday. He mentioned that the horse didn’t travel very well from Ireland to England and he was a bit light on condition on the day of the race, confessing that if he had his time again he wouldn’t have run the horse. He also mentioned that although he believed the horse did stay 3m, he felt that the horse had plenty of speed and therefore the JLT might be the more likely option come the Spring rather than the RSA. Wherever he turns up, he is likely to be well-fancied and although I think the excuses for last season are genuine, I still think he needs to prove himself on a sounder surface as most of his best form has come on soft or heavy ground.
Should he line-up in the JLT, he could face Willoughby Court who made it two from two over fences at Newbury on Friday. Ben Pauling’s six-year-old was not entirely convincing on his chasing debut at Huntingdon in November but this was much more like it as he jumped well out in front. He got a little low at one or two of the fences but other than that it was a fine round of jumping and he stayed on strongly to win the Grade 2 prize by three lengths. He won the novice hurdle equivalent, the Neptune (now Ballymore), at last season’s Festival and all roads appear to lead there again following this fine performance.   RSA   In behind Willoughby Court on Friday was Yanworth who I have to be honest, never really looked comfortable throughout the contest. He jumped a little slow and big early on and looked to be struggling to keep up with the leaders when making a mistake at the fourth last. To his credit, he kept going and got within three lengths of the winner at the line. My initial impression was that he might be more comfortable over 3m where they might go half a stride slower and therefore he might have more time to measure his jumps. He hasn’t looked the most natural of jumpers so far but he wasn’t beaten far at the line on Friday and if he can sharpen up his jumping, he could win a nice prize before the season is over.
The mover in the RSA market over the weekend was Presenting Percy who may have been beaten at Punchestown a couple of weeks ago, but bounced back to form with victory on Sunday at Fairyhouse. Patrick Kelly’s six-year-old was dropping back into handicap company but was conceding plenty of weight to more experienced rivals and ran out a ready winner. He was given a confident ride by Davy Russell and having cruised into the lead at the second last, he came nicely clear in the closing stages to win by eleven lengths. The heavy ground was cited as the reason for his moderate display in the Grade 2 last time and assuming the ground is close to good come the Spring, he looks likely to take a leading role in the RSA.
 
Novice Hurdlers   Supreme   Gordon Elliott’s Mengli Khan is now as short as 5/1 for the Supreme following his victory in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. The four-year-old only had two starts over hurdles last term but has won his last three starts since returning to action in September. He seems to be settling better in his races and for such a big horse, he is very nimble over his obstacles. It is also worth remembering that although he has been winning on soft ground, he won on the all-weather at Kempton last year so a return to a sounder surface is unlikely to inconvenience him. My gut feeling is that other contenders for the race will emerge as the season goes on and whilst he is clearly a smart novice, I wouldn’t be racing to take 5/1 just yet.
It is quite possible that these contenders will emerge in the coming weeks and it is also worth remembering that the loss of last season’s Champion Bumper winner Fayonagh and the injury to previous ante-post favourite Annamix may have left a hole in the division. However, I am sure the likes of Henderson, Nicholls and Mullins all have horses they are hoping will develop into Supreme contenders so it might just be a case of keeping our eyes open in the coming weeks.   Whilst I’m not sure he will make up into a Supreme horse, Amy Murphy’s Kalashnikov looks one to keep on side, having extended his unbeaten record to three at Doncaster on Saturday. He pulled well clear of the rest before putting a previous winner to the sword by ten lengths and he looks ready for a step up in grade next time. His trainer has indicated he could well do just that come January, with Cheltenham’s Trials Day meeting likely to be on his agenda. He could well step up in trip there and it is hard to put a limit on his prospects given the manner in which he has performed in his career to date.
Ballymore   I also wanted to briefly mention Samcro in this week’s update following his owner’s comments that the horse still had plenty to prove in his eyes. He was right to point out that Death Duty won the same Graded race in similar style last term before disappointing in the Spring and that he would wait for his five-year-old to prove his worth on the track before talking him up. It is not surprising to hear the Ryanair boss talking his horse down and even the most ardent of Samcro supporters would have to admit that 2/1 for the Ballymore is pretty short considering what he has done so far.
 
Bets
I have no bets to advise this week.
 
Ante-Post Diary:
DOUVAN (Queen Mother Champion Chase) – 2pts win @ 3/1 (SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral)
THISTLECRACK (Gold Cup) – 2pts win @ 6/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
DEFI DU SEUIL (Champion Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

MY Ante post Diary Part 2  
Champion Hurdle   Following Faugheen’s successful return to action a couple of weeks ago, all eyes were on Buveur D’Air at Newcastle on Saturday and Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old didn’t disappoint as he ran out a ready winner of the Fighting Fifth. In truth, it wasn’t a vintage renewal of the race but he travelled smoothly throughout under Barry Geraghty before stretching clear of his rivals in the closing stages. For all that the opposition may not have been up to much, you have to be impressed with the performance of the winner, particularly how quick and nimble he is over his hurdles. Barry Geraghty said on Sunday that he felt Buveur D’Air had filled into himself over the summer and he could potentially be a better horse this term.
Ultimately, only time will tell whether he can get beat Faugheen but that clash could come sooner than we thought, with the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day likely to be Buveur D’Air’s next port of call. The race was won in 2014 and 2015 by Faugheen and although plans are yet to be confirmed for Willie Mullins’ nine-year-old there would have to be a strong chance that the pair could clash at Christmas.
Over in Ireland, Apple’s Jade put up what was arguably a career-best performance to win the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle on Sunday. Gordon Elliott’s mare was brilliant in beating off Nichols Canyon by nine lengths and although the Mares’ Hurdle remains her number one target at the Festival according to her owner, the temptation to run her in the Champion or the Stayers’ Hurdle is likely to increase as the season goes on.
 
Champion Chase   Not much to report on in this division this week but both Douvan and Un De Sceaux remain on course to make their seasonal reappearances this weekend according to Willie Mullins. The former is set to tackle the Tingle Creek at Sandown on Saturday, with the latter waiting until the following day to run in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork.
In terms of Saturday’s race, there were 11 entries confirmed when the Tingle Creek closed on Monday. Ar Mad, Fox Norton, Politologue and Special Tiara look the most likely dangers to Willie Mullins’ runner, who also left in Un De Sceaux at the five-day stage.
Willie Mullins also spoke of Min on Sunday who he was reluctant to commit to either a 2m or 2m4f campaign this term. It is still the early part of the season so there is no need to make a firm decision at this stage but he did suggest that himself and Douvan will be kept apart where possible. That raises the possibility of one stepping up in trip come March but as I suggested last week, I would suggest that Min is more likely to run in the Ryanair than his older stablemate.
 
Stayers’ Hurdle
Beer Goggles put himself forward as a possible Stayers’ Hurdle contender with a game victory in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury on Friday. Richard Woollacott’s six-year-old has improved no end since joining the yard last December and having started on a mark of 115, he now finds himself rated upwards of 150. It has to be said that I thought he got the run of the race out in front but there was no doubting his attitude in the closing stages as he saw off the challenge of race-fit rival in Unowhatimeanharry before drawing clear on the run to the line. He is clearly improving all the time but I would imagine his next intended target, the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January is likely to tell us more about his chances at The Festival.
I briefly mentioned Unowhatimeanharry who ran a fine race despite being beaten on the day. It is worth remembering that he was conceding 6lb to most of the field here and although you would have fancied him to pick up the winner in the closing stages, he probably gave him too much rope. He remains a top-class staying hurdler and I would imagine we will see him next in the Long Walk at Ascot.
Over in Ireland on Sunday, last year’s Stayers Hurdle winner Nichols Canyon lost little in defeat behind Apple’s Jade at Fairyhouse. Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old does have a good record fresh but I think he just found a race-fit Apple’s Jade too hot to handle on the day. He still looked to be in with a chance on the run to the second last but having pecked on landing, his chances of victory were ended. He ran on again after the last but he should benefit physically from this run and although he has plenty of form on soft ground, I think over these longer trips, he is better on a sounder surface.
 
Gold Cup
Having been pretty positive in last week’s post about the prospect of Thistlecrack returning, I have to admit I was pretty disappointed by his display at Newbury on Friday. I think that was largely down to the fact that the comments coming from the stable beforehand indicated he was spot on in terms of fitness for his return to action. His trainer has since admitted that they talked him up too much and having watched the race a few times, I am happy to agree with the assessment that he travelled well into the race but just got tired in the closing stages of the race. Clearly you would have preferred him to finish ahead of the likes of Taquin Du Seuil but Tom Scudamore was kind on the horse once he realised his chance was gone. The bookmakers reacted to his defeat by pushing him out to as big as 12/1 which was fair enough considering the display and you have to admit that he now goes to the King George with plenty to prove. That run should have done him good in terms of fitness but the Tizzard team now have three weeks to get him right for what looks likely to be a vintage renewal of the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. In terms of the Gold Cup, it all depends how he comes he fares in the King George but I certainly wouldn’t be tearing up our betting slip just yet.   The below-par return to action of Thistlecrack has also forced Colin Tizzard into a rethink of plans for last year’s Gold Cup third Native River. The plan had been to give him one run before the Gold Cup but now connections are thinking two runs would probably be better for him. He is likely to start in the New Year and having started last season over hurdles, it would be no surprise to see him have a spin over the smaller obstacles on his first run back.
The big winner in the Gold Cup market this weekend was Might Bite whose form got a significant boost with stablemate Whisper finishing an agonising second in the Ladbrokes Trophy. I would be the first to admit that before Saturday, I thought Whisper had it all to do off a big weight but he looks to have really improved this term, getting the better of Clan Des Obeaux at Kempton prior to his brave effort at the weekend. Having said that, I think he would need to step up again to play a significant role in the Gold Cup come March, so I think he is short enough at around the 12/1 or 14/1 quoted by most firms.
We may get a better idea of the Irish Gold Cup contenders at the weekend with Sizing John and Djakadam both possible runners in Sunday’s John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown. The latter has won the last two renewals of the race but should Jessica Harrington’s Gold Cup winner turn up, it will be a better field than he has faced in each of the last two years.
 
Novice Chasers
JLT   Death Duty moved to the top of several lists for the JLT following an authoritative victory in the Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday. Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old jumped well out in front under Davy Russell and although most of his rivals were still in touch turning for home, he quickened up well between the final two fences and stayed on well to the line to win by three and a quarter lengths. As a novice hurdler he was very exciting at this time of year before disappointing at Cheltenham in the Spring and I was interested to hear his trainer discuss that on Sunday. He mentioned that the horse didn’t travel very well from Ireland to England and he was a bit light on condition on the day of the race, confessing that if he had his time again he wouldn’t have run the horse. He also mentioned that although he believed the horse did stay 3m, he felt that the horse had plenty of speed and therefore the JLT might be the more likely option come the Spring rather than the RSA. Wherever he turns up, he is likely to be well-fancied and although I think the excuses for last season are genuine, I still think he needs to prove himself on a sounder surface as most of his best form has come on soft or heavy ground.
Should he line-up in the JLT, he could face Willoughby Court who made it two from two over fences at Newbury on Friday. Ben Pauling’s six-year-old was not entirely convincing on his chasing debut at Huntingdon in November but this was much more like it as he jumped well out in front. He got a little low at one or two of the fences but other than that it was a fine round of jumping and he stayed on strongly to win the Grade 2 prize by three lengths. He won the novice hurdle equivalent, the Neptune (now Ballymore), at last season’s Festival and all roads appear to lead there again following this fine performance.   RSA   In behind Willoughby Court on Friday was Yanworth who I have to be honest, never really looked comfortable throughout the contest. He jumped a little slow and big early on and looked to be struggling to keep up with the leaders when making a mistake at the fourth last. To his credit, he kept going and got within three lengths of the winner at the line. My initial impression was that he might be more comfortable over 3m where they might go half a stride slower and therefore he might have more time to measure his jumps. He hasn’t looked the most natural of jumpers so far but he wasn’t beaten far at the line on Friday and if he can sharpen up his jumping, he could win a nice prize before the season is over.
The mover in the RSA market over the weekend was Presenting Percy who may have been beaten at Punchestown a couple of weeks ago, but bounced back to form with victory on Sunday at Fairyhouse. Patrick Kelly’s six-year-old was dropping back into handicap company but was conceding plenty of weight to more experienced rivals and ran out a ready winner. He was given a confident ride by Davy Russell and having cruised into the lead at the second last, he came nicely clear in the closing stages to win by eleven lengths. The heavy ground was cited as the reason for his moderate display in the Grade 2 last time and assuming the ground is close to good come the Spring, he looks likely to take a leading role in the RSA.
 
Novice Hurdlers   Supreme   Gordon Elliott’s Mengli Khan is now as short as 5/1 for the Supreme following his victory in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. The four-year-old only had two starts over hurdles last term but has won his last three starts since returning to action in September. He seems to be settling better in his races and for such a big horse, he is very nimble over his obstacles. It is also worth remembering that although he has been winning on soft ground, he won on the all-weather at Kempton last year so a return to a sounder surface is unlikely to inconvenience him. My gut feeling is that other contenders for the race will emerge as the season goes on and whilst he is clearly a smart novice, I wouldn’t be racing to take 5/1 just yet.
It is quite possible that these contenders will emerge in the coming weeks and it is also worth remembering that the loss of last season’s Champion Bumper winner Fayonagh and the injury to previous ante-post favourite Annamix may have left a hole in the division. However, I am sure the likes of Henderson, Nicholls and Mullins all have horses they are hoping will develop into Supreme contenders so it might just be a case of keeping our eyes open in the coming weeks.   Whilst I’m not sure he will make up into a Supreme horse, Amy Murphy’s Kalashnikov looks one to keep on side, having extended his unbeaten record to three at Doncaster on Saturday. He pulled well clear of the rest before putting a previous winner to the sword by ten lengths and he looks ready for a step up in grade next time. His trainer has indicated he could well do just that come January, with Cheltenham’s Trials Day meeting likely to be on his agenda. He could well step up in trip there and it is hard to put a limit on his prospects given the manner in which he has performed in his career to date.
Ballymore   I also wanted to briefly mention Samcro in this week’s update following his owner’s comments that the horse still had plenty to prove in his eyes. He was right to point out that Death Duty won the same Graded race in similar style last term before disappointing in the Spring and that he would wait for his five-year-old to prove his worth on the track before talking him up. It is not surprising to hear the Ryanair boss talking his horse down and even the most ardent of Samcro supporters would have to admit that 2/1 for the Ballymore is pretty short considering what he has done so far.
 
Bets
I have no bets to advise this week.
 
Ante-Post Diary:
DOUVAN (Queen Mother Champion Chase) – 2pts win @ 3/1 (SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Coral)
THISTLECRACK (Gold Cup) – 2pts win @ 6/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
DEFI DU SEUIL (Champion Hurdle) – 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)