Paddy Power Gold Cup

[richard-westwood]

Just looking forward to the big race this weekend....I narrowed the race to 5 horses .based on age...and having good form at chelt that left...

Al dancer   355  

Mister Fisher  353 

Spiritofgames  350 

Slate house  350 

Simply the bets 348 

As youd expect a very competitive 17 runner  race .....but I like the top2 here for big trainers ntdavies who does really well in this race and Henderson......any one of these 5  could win ....but top 2 are priced 6 and 9 currently so ew they look value bets but I'll back friday to avoid non runners 

Any thoughts 

[Villa Chris]

Was impressed with Al Dancers last run. He just seems a better horse this year and can handle Cheltenham. I went through the card last night and Simply The Bets was the stand out horse in terms of how I pick my selections. 

[Punterbro]

How did you narrow them based on age Richard? If it's you limited to the oldest-youngest horses who won this race previously?

[Valiant Thor]

Dont think I'll be  playing in this race , there's only about 5 horses from the 16 that shouldn't win it whatever happens,( but its racing so you never know )
 

[richard-westwood]

8 hours ago, Punterbro said:

How did you narrow them based on age Richard? If it's you limited to the oldest-youngest horses who won this race previously?

Yes ....this race is completely biased to the 5 to 9 age group and even more to the 6 to 8 group so I bear that in mind when I'm making my final selections too ......in some races it might just knock out 1 or 2 horses ....but in others 6 or  7  .....I dont always use that ...sometimes its weight ......sometimes its having a win over say 3m2f plus if it's the grand national etc .....a lot is just common sense and chopping the race down .......a horse with form 5 pu 8 and 33/1 today idnt going to win unless there are extenuating circumstances ....so you chop the race and rate what's left ....I'd say on average in a 20 runner race ...8 are absolutely no hopes before the race even starts .....so I'd rather rate a,12 runner than a 20 .....then the ratings can reduce 12 to say 5 and suddenly your chances have drastically improved ...you can argue that its speculation yes ....but you have to improve the odds in your favour to ultimately find the value bets .....you can use any method you like I just find that using trends helps me .....but not always....sometimes I just rate the whole race anyway then just scrub poor ratings and poor form ....wrong conditions etc and just look at what's left 

I rated the whole race but 18 of the last winners were in the first 8 of the betting .....that's about 90 % so in effect it's pointless looking outside that band .....I did rate all the runners just in case but could chop half the field in this case give or take the odd maybe horse .....simply the bets has gone up in weight and is top weight so that's a double negative reflected in his rating .....etc etc 

Well ....aso was 10 so out lol....simply has an 8lb rise and big weight to lump so is downgraded slightly .....not impossible to win but value is downgraded....that's the name of the game 

Edited November 11, 2020 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

Then you narrow it down to a few horses and have to make a choice ......I kind of like slate house he won a grd1 and grade 1 horses do really well in this but his grade 1 win was over black ops .....mister fishers was a 4th behind samcro and faugheen (less than 4 lengths behind the 2 and that to me looks a rock solid piece of form ....plus I have a sneaky suspicion slate house needs the full 3 mile because hes not that speedy.....so mr Fisher goes up ...slate house down .....certainly not impossible for slate house to win but your building a value picture of each horse )

Likewise al dancer .....looks the type that usually does well in this ....has strong form ....still well weighted and ntdavies has sent I think 25 runners and 3 have won with 6 placed ....that's 9 from 25 with a healthy level stakes profit so he generally gets one ready for a crack at this and this year that's al dancer .... ew looks a cracking bet 

[Villa Chris]

Siruh Du Lac is my ew bet for this race. Simply The Betts is the class act but could get pegged back carrying top weight. 

[Valiant Thor]

7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Simply The Betts is the class act but could get pegged back carrying top weight. 

@ 9/2 I wouldn't touch it with stolen money

[MCLARKE]

Interesting stats in this race for the last 7 years includes :-

There have been 60 runners that have carried more than 11 stone and only 1 has won. This reduces the field from 17 to 8.

There have been 48 runners whose last run was over 35 days ago and only 2 won. This reduces the field to 5.

There have been 75 runners that have not won over the course or distance before and only 3 have won. 

This leaves just the 1 horse, COOLE CODY, currently available at 20/1.

[Villa Chris]

8 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

@ 9/2 I wouldn't touch it with stolen money

It’s about getting on early I suppose. 

Edited November 13, 2020 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Interesting stats in this race for the last 7 years includes :-

There have been 60 runners that have carried more than 11 stone and only 1 has won. This reduces the field from 17 to 8.

There have been 48 runners whose last run was over 35 days ago and only 2 won. This reduces the field to 5.

There have been 75 runners that have not won over the course or distance before and only 3 have won. 

This leaves just the 1 horse, COOLE CODY, currently available at 20/1.

By far his highest hurdle RPR was at Cheltenham. Also recorded joint highest RPR over fences at Cheltenham last month. Bit inexperienced over fences, mind. 

[Valiant Thor]

9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Interesting stats in this race for the last 7 years includes :-

There have been 60 runners that have carried more than 11 stone and only 1 has won. This reduces the field from 17 to 8.

There have been 48 runners whose last run was over 35 days ago and only 2 won. This reduces the field to 5.

There have been 75 runners that have not won over the course or distance before and only 3 have won. 

This leaves just the 1 horse, COOLE CODY, currently available at 20/1.

I came to a similar conclusion but using paired comparisons linear algebra (remember simultaneous equations at school) rather than collinearity from 7 races which I'm not a lover of to say the least.
If you can find it out there in the ether somewhere, read the 37 Circles of Hell this will change your mind about the way you look at trend analysis.

[richard-westwood]

On 11/10/2020 at 2:29 PM, richard-westwood said:

Just looking forward to the big race this weekend....I narrowed the race to 5 horses .based on age...and having good form at chelt that left...

Al dancer   355  

Mister Fisher  353 

Spiritofgames  350 

Slate house  350 

Simply the bets 348 

As youd expect a very competitive 17 runner  race .....but I like the top2 here for big trainers ntdavies who does really well in this race and Henderson......any one of these 5  could win ....but top 2 are priced 6 and 9 currently so ew they look value bets but I'll back friday to avoid non runners 

Any thoughts 

Still sticking with mister fisher and al dancer 5pts ew at 5/1 and 9/1 respectively 

[MCLARKE]

9 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

I came to a similar conclusion but using paired comparisons linear algebra (remember simultaneous equations at school) rather than collinearity from 7 races which I'm not a lover of to say the least.
If you can find it out there in the ether somewhere, read the 37 Circles of Hell this will change your mind about the way you look at trend analysis.

Thanks. I must admit I don't normally look at trends like these with such little data but I thought I'd give it a bash. Normally I like to have several hundred winners in my selection criteria before using it live.

[beaker1]

The first ‘big handicap’ of the season and one with a few very strong trends associated with it, starting with a nod to experience. All of the last 12 winners of this race have had at least two runs at this venue and all but one of those have had at least five chase runs. That’s a massive black mark in the column of ante-post favourite, Saint Sonnet, who would not only become the first five-year-old to win the race since Caid Du Berlais in 2014, but has only had three runs over fences in his life so far. Combine that with the abysmal record of favourites over the past decade (0/10) and this well-fancied, unexposed sort comes out as one of the worst value horses you could think of in terms of ticking the trends boxes.

His yard, however, is without doubt the best source of winners and placed horses in the past decade. Nicholls has not only saddled two of the last eight winners, but he’s also trained a placed horse in four of the last six years that he hasn’t won the race. Saint Sonnet still has to be respected as a result, as does the stable’s other runner, Brelan D’As, who was an agonisingly close second in the race last year. Two other yards have tasted success more than once in recent history, they are Jonjo O’Neill (2013 & 2016) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008, 2010 & 2017). The first named saddles Sky Pirate and the latter has Al Dancer representing his local yard this year.

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last 12 renewals. No runner aged older than nine has won this since 1975, so the ten-year-old Aso is well up against it on the trends, while the record of five-year-olds is poor, with only one winner since the turn of the millennium. Six-year-olds have won the race four times since 2000, but recently, it’s seven, eight or nine-year-olds who have dominated – 15 of the 20 winners have come from that age band.

The next trend is related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 139 and 148. This accounts for nine of the last twelve winners, with only Al Ferof, Taquin Du Seuil and Splash Of Ginge having defied this stat, the first two higher and the last named lower. In terms of this year’s field it’s a negative for the top seven horses in racecard order and the bottom three – interestingly, only seven horses fall into this bracket this year: Spiritofthegames, Saint Sonnet, Domaine De L’Isle, Brelan D’As, Kauto Riko, Fidux and Pinson Du Rheu.

Even though the weights can depend on the quality of those entered, it can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this. Since 2000 only Our Vic, Al Ferof and Taquin Du Seuil have carried more than 11st 3lb to victory, so combined with the likely soft ground, this suggests that all the horses above Spiritofthegames could have that count against them. 

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and even though favourites aren’t the ones to be with historically, this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a really big price. In fact, eight of the last ten winners were sent off at an SP of 14/1 or less with Splash Of Ginge (25/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. The likes of Simply the Betts, Mister Fisher, Siruh Du Lac, Al Dancer, Slate House and Spiritofthegames are currently available at odds between five and ten to one.

Shortlist:

BRELAN D’AS – 8/8

Sky Pirate – 7/8

Al Dancer – 6/8

Conclusion

Taking all things into account, only one of the contenders match all eight of the key trends and it’s no surprise that he’s trained by Paul Nicholls, who has a sensational record in this. However, what is the surprise is that it’s not his 4/1 favourite, Saint Sonnet, but his 14/1 chance, BRELAN D’AS. He was an agonisingly close second in the race last year from a 5lb lower mark but even though he’s a bit higher in the weights this year, he’ll actually carry 1lb less in physical weight. This 2m4f trip and the likely soft ground combine to form his ideal conditions and his best efforts have come at this track in big handicaps previously, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t put in another big run here. He was still going well off this mark in the Caspian Caviar when a bad error three out ended his challenge, so given some solid jumping and the brilliant form of his stable, he could go close.

Sky Pirate misses out on the full house of trends by just one, spookily reminiscent of his racing career, where second place, more often than not, is the order of the day. He often travels sweetly into his races, looking all over the winner, only to find absolutely nothing when push comes to shove – again the case on his latest outing when second at Wetherby behind the well-handicapped Cool Mix – so don’t be surprised to see his jockey motionless turning for home, before getting very animated for a short time with little response from the horse. However, even though we can bash the horse, he’s usually a good jumper, is very consistent and with just 10st 2lb on his back, could certainly place.

With six contenders level on six out of eight trends boxes ticked, we have to make a choice on who is the best of those to complete our shortlist and it’s a close race between Spiritofthegames, who is one of the most consistent handicappers at this level that you will ever see, and Al Dancer, who spent most of his novice season over fences running crackers at Graded level and embarks on his second season chasing with a first run in a handicap over the larger obstacles. While Spiritofthegames is a proven commodity in races like this and often goes well fresh, he was pulled up in this last year, so I’ll go with the potential of Al Dancer, who beat a good horse in Master Tommytucker at newton Abbot over 2m5f, while giving 6lb to that rival, who won in serious style at Huntingdon on Tuesday. On that evidence, a mark of 154 given to Al Dancer could well be lenient and if Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge can avoid jumping errors, his class should take him a long way with race fitness assured.

[Valiant Thor]

On 11/10/2020 at 4:53 PM, Valiant Thor said:

Dont think I'll be  playing in this race , there's only about 5 horses from the 16 that shouldn't win it whatever happens,( but its racing so you never know )
 

Never in doubt

[richard-westwood]

20 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Still sticking with mister fisher and al dancer 5pts ew at 5/1 and 9/1 respectively 

Al dancer 3rd......well done the coole cody backers....great trends horse

[Valiant Thor]

36 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

.great trends horse

I dont do trends road to the poor house,

Trends
OR 139>148............... Coole Cody 137
Age 7yo .......................Coole Cody 9
Or do these not count because they dont fit
Ill say it a million times trends are for fools as you are focusing on a very small group with little or no statistical significance.

Edited November 14, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[Trotter]

I'm sure I saw the eventual winner make a big blunder at one of the early fences when out in front ....... he jumped the fence and sprawled on landing

the commentator didn't mention it (Bartlett on RTV) ..... instead he was talking about a horse at the back of the field making a blunder so maybe he wasn't looking at the front of the race !

[Valiant Thor]

3 hours ago, Trotter said:

I'm sure I saw the eventual winner make a big blunder at one of the early fences when out in front ....... he jumped the fence and sprawled on landing

the commentator didn't mention it (Bartlett on RTV) ..... instead he was talking about a horse at the back of the field making a blunder so maybe he wasn't looking at the front of the race !

yep , slipped and pecked @ first fence in home straight , good sit by jock and good recovery by Coole Cody, personally thought that was game over but obviously not

[MCLARKE]

6 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

Ill say it a million times trends are for fools as you are focusing on a very small group with little or no statistical significance.

A bit harsh Valiant !

I do agree though that it is better to have a lot more data to draw meaningful conclusions. The trick is to have enough data whilst keeping the parameters of the races fairly narrow. 

For instance should we expand the data to include races during November or other months, other distances, other classes etc.

Currently my most profitable system is based on an analysis of all NH handicap races. This seems far too wide a parameter but it seems to work.

It might be interesting to look at the top race each Saturday and see how successful the trends horses are compared to those selected by more traditional form study. 

[Valiant Thor]

44 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

A bit harsh Valiant !

I do agree though that it is better to have a lot more data to draw meaningful conclusions. The trick is to have enough data whilst keeping the parameters of the races fairly narrow. 

For instance should we expand the data to include races during November or other months, other distances, other classes etc.

Currently my most profitable system is based on an analysis of all NH handicap races. This seems far too wide a parameter but it seems to work.

It might be interesting to look at the top race each Saturday and see how successful the trends horses are compared to those selected by more traditional form study. 

I dont think its harsh,
The average horserace has around 9 runners (11%)
A:4 wins from 10 runs = 40%
B:72 wins from 400 runs = 18%
A is trend data , B is race data from 400 similar 9 runner races ....which is a more accurate representation of a similar type race A or B?
B is 10 times LESS likely to occur at RANDOM than A.
Therefore is a more accurate representation of a likely outcome.
Punters can do what they want as far as Im concerned its not my money, but if punters want to improve do your homework and dont fall for the crap .
If they want trends just listen to the Blonde bimbo and her sidekick Jamie on ATR , Blah Blah Blah has a 33% sr at this track , you look they've had 3 races and won 1 whoopie f'kin doo lets pile on after all its a trend.
If you want to check the trends go ahead , infact I think theres trend thread on here somewhere,but it stopped when they realised it was a pile of crap.
Only trend Im interested in is how each horse could/should perform against each other in that particular race , Dobbins performance from 7 years ago has no influence whatsoever unless he/she is running in it.
I bet the trend followers buy lotto systems as well

ATB
VT

Edited November 14, 2020 by Valiant Thor
spelling

[MCLARKE]

You could well be right, I don't normally look at trends for individual races, perhaps I was just lucky on this occasion.

How do you define a similar race, is it class, going, distance, field size etc? What would you use that gives an adequate data size and would cover the Paddy Power ?

[richard-westwood]

The paddy power has always been a strong trends race .....

My trends ...

19/20   aged 6 to 9      coole passed 

18/20   won at chelt previously   coole won over hurdles 

Pref below 11st 2lb     coole was 10st 2lb 

Only reason I didn't back was I just didn't think he was good enough based on recent form ..he had to improve  ....obviously the 10st 2lb helped him a lot on the ground receiving so much weight from the others....it happens....but he was definately on the shortlist after the trends chaff cutting ......I was gonna back him purely because he had passed trends and was top of time form ratings but was going to never did ......still I was happy with 3rd in such a hard race ?

Oh ....I think he passed another trend   16/20 .....a previous winner at over 2m4f plus .....albeit hurdles (2m5f) so he was very much a trend horse ....like I said he had got to improve a lot .....but he did ....that's just life 

Edited November 15, 2020 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

He was well backed in the end. After one or two on here mentioned him I looked at him and there were definitely some positives to take, but for me he was too inexperienced over fences and I just didn’t think he’d be good enough to win. Obviously liked it at Cheltenham because his highest RPR over hurdles was at Cheltenham and he also recorded its highest RPR over fences the other week at the course. The horse improved again to win this. Weight obviously helped and front running tactics, too. With Siruh Du Lac unseating rider at first he had no challengers for the lead . Nice win for anyone that was on him. It is a strong trends race, apparently one of the strongest trend races going. I didn’t base any of my picks on trends, mind. 

[Valiant Thor]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

The paddy power has always been a strong trends race .....

My trends ...

19/20   aged 6 to 9      coole passed 

8/20   won at chelt previously   coole won over hurdles 

Pref below 11st 2lb     coole was 10st 2lb 

Only reason I didn't back was I just didn't think he was good enough based on recent form ..he had to improve  ....obviously the 10st 2lb helped him a lot on the ground receiving so much weight from the others....it happens....but he was definately on the shortlist after the trends chaff cutting ......I was gonna back him purely because he had passed trends and was top of time form ratings but was going to never did ......still I was happy with 3rd in such a hard race ?

Oh ....I think he passed another trend   16/20 .....a previous winner at over 2m4f plus .....albeit hurdles (2m5f) so he was very much a trend horse ....like I said he had got to improve a lot .....but he did ....that's just life 

19/20   aged 6 to 9 ..............80% of the field fell into that category so a blind man in a dark room could have seen that
Pref below 11st 2lb...............So were 50% of the field
16/20 .....a previous winner at over 2m4f plus.......As It was a valuable 2m5f race , I would at the very least expect the horse to be competitive at that distance or why else would they be entered , for the fun of it ?
8/20   won at chelt previously......from 1079 pre race CD winners in the last 12 month 1743 won (13%) so sort of blows the 8/20 (40%) out of the water , when taking large data into the equation, Chelt or not.
You forgot to mention only 2 greys have won it in the last 10yr , so disregard them and Coole Cody falls into that trend as well.

See where Im coming from its a kind of horse-race pareidolia ( seeing patterns that aren't really there when you look at a bigger picture)
 

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

You could well be right, I don't normally look at trends for individual races, perhaps I was just lucky on this occasion.

How do you define a similar race, is it class, going, distance, field size etc? What would you use that gives an adequate data size and would cover the Paddy Power ?

1) I dont agree with luck good or bad..... Its a binomial event , one man's bad luck is another man's good luck so the result is always balanced, good/bad = 1 and vica versa.Its more of an excuse used by a loser rather than an admittance of a wrong decision.
ie ...Boo Hoo Im having bad luck my 1/5 shot just got beat on the line (1/5 shots lose 17% of the time get over it and stop whining)
2) As for data size , as much as I have of what you have stated ,plus Jock ,trainer,horse etc etc.
You cant base a decision on 10 or 20 events as its just statistical noise, jock A might only have had 10 races at that distance, but all the jocks racing might have had over 1000 runs between them from which you can then make a more accurate average performance required put that up to the jocks riding in said race and it shows who is above or below the average required (just an example but get my drift).
3) Mine is not a static database (just the results) its dynamic, meaning the result of one race effects the other races using weighted averages ( a sort of Butterfly effect in reverse, time series exponential smoothing to be precise ). these weighted averages are then pitched against each other ie jock A v jock B etc etc same with trainers , class , field size etc etc the product of which are then used for the final horse ratings.
This creates a standard or normal distribution (Bell curve) from which z scores can be obtained and there in a reasonably accurate tissue can be made according to the final ratings value (IMO more accurate than the rating being divided by the sum of the ratings or guessing, hence the exp odds by my ratings are more important than the rating itself) The 100 for top rated is just an arbitrary number as I like all my top rated to be the same (its an OCD thing)
Sounds a ball ache to do but once automated takes about 1 min per race so by the time Ive set it going and made a brew its done for the days racing
ATB
VT

Edited November 15, 2020 by Valiant Thor

[MCLARKE]

You are correct with small data producing random results. If a coin is tossed 5 times and it comes down heads 5 times then the trends would say you need to call heads, this obviously would be nonsense, just like saying it has been heads 5 times in a row therefore it is more likely to be tails next time.

It certainly helps having a good knowledge of statistics in this game.

There was a study where people were giving a bag containing 30 red balls and 20 yellow balls and asked to predict the colour of the 1st 5 balls they picked from the bag. The majority went for 3 red and 2 yellow !