The Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tips (1:30pm)

[StevieDay1983]

The 2023 Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser kicks off with the Cheltenham roar which is the first of 28 quality races spread over four days. The race is run over 2m 87 yards of the old course and some interesting stats about the race include that nine of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse who won their previous race whilst also nine of the last ten winners have run within the last 59 days. The leading trainer in the race is Willie Mullins who’s looking for his eighth victory in the race. Some of the big names that have plundered the prize over the years include Vatour, Douvan, Altior, Shishkin and last year a sensational performance by Constitution Hill who came home a staggering 22L to the good from stable companion Jonbon.

This year’s renewal looks open enough at present with the ante-post favourite Facile Vega blotting his copybook at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown when losing his unbeaten run in finishing a well beaten 5th of 6. It has since transpired that the horse had an issue that day but it appears his trainer Willie Mullins is happy enough with him now. He’s smart and should go well but has a question mark hanging over him now. Mullins, as you would expect, has many others he could send here including Il Etait Temps who won the race that Facile Vega bombed out in at Leopardstown quite comfortably turning the form around with his stable mate who beat him an easy 4L previously over Christmas. Gaelic Warrior is another possible but he’s not a retain runner with a Ballymore entry also. Maybe the most interesting of the Mullins runners is Impaire Et Passe who’s unbeaten in three starts looking good when landing the odds in a grade 2 at Punchestown in mid January. Owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede in the double green silks he could be anything.

Irish trainer Barry Connell has stated in the past that his Marine Nationale is the best horse he’s ever had any dealings with and that is a statement that stands up well with the trainer having ridden some good ones over the years. He is unbeaten in four starts, two bumpers and two novice hurdles. He hasn’t run since early December which is maybe a problem with the majority of the winners of this race all having come into the race having run within the last 59 days. Connell stated after his latest win that he was going straight to Cheltenham so it’s not as if he’s been injured or anything. He’ll be fresh and I can see him going well. Joseph O’Brien has his former smart flat performer High Definition entered. He was last seen unseating at the 4th in the race win by Il Etait Temps at Leopardstown but will need to brush up his jumping to trouble the judge.

The best of the home challenge appears to lie with Paul Nicholls’ Tahmuras owned by the Noel Fehily Racing Club last seen winning the Tolworth Hurdle and Olly Murphy’s Chasing Fire who’s looked good in his three starts and remains unbeaten. Nicky Henderson, who has taken this contest three times in the last seven years, has his smart unbeaten mate Luccia entered. She looked very good when winning at Exeter recently but surely she’ll head for the mares novices’ hurdle for which she will be at short odds.

Facile Vega can be given another chance but this is hardly the ideal preparation for him so it may be worth playing the unbeaten Marine Nationale who has been laid out for this.

Punters Lounge Tip: Marine National @ 7/2 NR NB at >Betfred - Click Here To Bet

by The Brigadier

[richard-westwood]

My top 2 rated for supreme 

Il etait temps   9.0  7.8 

Marine national   8.7  4/1 

It's early but odds will plummet the closer we get ....my idea of winner is il etait temps if he runs and I can't see why not  ....the way he won last time suggests more to come and Marine has a 100 day layoff to overcome which is a big negative  but I'll try 10 pt wins both ? 

[The Brigadier]

21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

My top 2 rated for supreme 

Il etait temps   9.0  7.8 

Marine national   8.7  4/1 

It's early but odds will plummet the closer we get ....my idea of winner is il etait temps if he runs and I can't see why not  ....the way he won last time suggests more to come and Marine has a 100 day layoff to overcome which is a big negative  but I'll try 10 pt wins both ? 

You'll enjoy this then Richard !

 

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

You'll enjoy this then Richard !

Well given the Irish record ...and mullins I think thr other one is the horse to beat ....I don't like the fact he's been off 100 days marine national....ordi arily I'd put a line through it but you can't deny he's a supreme type .....in my eyes it's one or other I can't see who else is good enough unless there's a huge improver hiding 

 

[Zilzalian]

Connell says Marine Nationale has "incredible speed" i can't find any evidence to back that up. I don't like the faux hype at the fav end of the betting this may well go to mullins or connell but when you look at what the size of this field will be do you really want to bet good money on any of those? I say this because they all look very similar to these eyes and to be honest i just don't get it so i am going to put 2 selections up.

Good or decent horses from the flat if they take to jumping is my play in this race. The ground at Cheltenham drains incredibly quickly due to its amazing drainage systems so i am guessing on good or good to soft ground.

The first horse is High Definition at 12/1 ew, never really been a fan of this horse but one look at its form from the flat tells you anything you need to know, as for jumping it managed to win first time up beating 26 rivals second time it didn't jump too well pecked and unseated Slevin. You can be sure they have had plenty of time to get his jumping up to scratch this team are no fools.

My main choice is Amir Kabir at 100/1 ew , why? you may ask, well Unlike Connell telling you his horse has "incredible speed" this one has proved it by running 8 seconds faster than standard over hurdles, a reasonable performer for the Charltons on the flat, Gordon Elliot has snapped this one up and it duly beat 14 rivals comfortably, it then got beat giving 4 Lbs to Flaming moon over 2m 1/2 furlong back over 2m (its 3rd start) it comfortably. beat the same opponent on level weights and then was presumably put away for this.

 

Amir Kabir is a no show was NRNB so no losses there.

Edited March 11 by Zilzalian
update

[StevieDay1983]

18 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Good or decent horses from the flat if they take to jumping is my play in this race. The ground at Cheltenham drains incredibly quickly due to its amazing drainage systems so i am guessing on good or good to soft ground.

On this note of the Cheltenham ground draining quickly, is that likely to be different if there's the forecast snow that hits later this week? Could we see the drainage suffer from that?

[Zilzalian]

31 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

On this note of the Cheltenham ground draining quickly, is that likely to be different if there's the forecast snow that hits later this week? Could we see the drainage suffer from that?

Well past experiences say it is quite possible but i once watched a video on the drainage system at Cheltenham and have been to the festival on many occasions and seen the drain off through many ditches, culverts and streams and the amount of water running away was quite impressive even when the weather was dry. One year it hammered it down all week but by the Tuesday the ground had changed from soft to heavy on the Thursday to good by Tuesday. If the snow hasn't melted so can't drain away you might assume that racing would be abandoned anyway so i might suggest Heavy would be very unusual and soft more likely due to the current weather forecast. One further consideration is that it has been a very dry winter and the water tables are very low so have plenty of capacity to soak up the water even without taking the drainage systems into account. Personally i am going to assume soft at worst when considering form and selections up until Sunday or Monday where we will have a more definitive forecast. Finally, A bigger problem for punters is that if it rains on the day/s the ground cutting up will maybe have a significant influence but at least with that scenario we can adjust our thinking day by day.

[beaker1]

my opinion on the race, I’d happily oppose Marine Nationale. While Barry Connell has been bullish to say the least, he’s not been seen for a long time which would be a big negative and I don’t think that was a vintage Royal Bond. Facile Vega ran an awful race at the DRF and while he more than likely rates the best of these, you’d still be taking a serious gamble backing him. Il Etait Temps surely represents some value and could even drift on the day, he beat Facile Vega all ends up and would be the one I’d side with at the front of the market. Dark Raven would prefer some cut in the ground, and should the rain come he may fill the places at a double figure price if they opt to come here. The English challenge is headed by Tahmuras, while Olly Murphy seemed quite sweet on Chasing Fire.  

[MCLARKE]

Facile Vega is the likely favourite. He was a well beaten favourite last time.

Mullins record with beaten favourites at the festival is 2 wins from 62 runs.

[The Brigadier]

On 3/2/2023 at 2:06 PM, StevieDay1983 said:

The 2023 Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser kicks off with the Cheltenham roar which is the first of 28 quality races spread over four days. The race is run over 2m 87 yards of the old course and some interesting stats about the race include that nine of the last ten runnings have been won by a horse who won their previous race whilst also nine of the last ten winners have run within the last 59 days. The leading trainer in the race is Willie Mullins who’s looking for his eighth victory in the race. Some of the big names that have plundered the prize over the years include Vatour, Douvan, Altior, Shishkin and last year a sensational performance by Constitution Hill who came home a staggering 22L to the good from stable companion Jonbon.

This year’s renewal looks open enough at present with the ante-post favourite Facile Vega blotting his copybook at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown when losing his unbeaten run in finishing a well beaten 5th of 6. It has since transpired that the horse had an issue that day but it appears his trainer Willie Mullins is happy enough with him now. He’s smart and should go well but has a question mark hanging over him now. Mullins, as you would expect, has many others he could send here including Il Etait Temps who won the race that Facile Vega bombed out in at Leopardstown quite comfortably turning the form around with his stable mate who beat him an easy 4L previously over Christmas. Gaelic Warrior is another possible but he’s not a retain runner with a Ballymore entry also. Maybe the most interesting of the Mullins runners is Impaire Et Passe who’s unbeaten in three starts looking good when landing the odds in a grade 2 at Punchestown in mid January. Owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede in the double green silks he could be anything.

Irish trainer Barry Connell has stated in the past that his Marine Nationale is the best horse he’s ever had any dealings with and that is a statement that stands up well with the trainer having ridden some good ones over the years. He is unbeaten in four starts, two bumpers and two novice hurdles. He hasn’t run since early December which is maybe a problem with the majority of the winners of this race all having come into the race having run within the last 59 days. Connell stated after his latest win that he was going straight to Cheltenham so it’s not as if he’s been injured or anything. He’ll be fresh and I can see him going well. Joseph O’Brien has his former smart flat performer High Definition entered. He was last seen unseating at the 4th in the race win by Il Etait Temps at Leopardstown but will need to brush up his jumping to trouble the judge.

The best of the home challenge appears to lie with Paul Nicholls’ Tahmuras owned by the Noel Fehily Racing Club last seen winning the Tolworth Hurdle and Olly Murphy’s Chasing Fire who’s looked good in his three starts and remains unbeaten. Nicky Henderson, who has taken this contest three times in the last seven years, has his smart unbeaten mate Luccia entered. She looked very good when winning at Exeter recently but surely she’ll head for the mares novices’ hurdle for which she will be at short odds.

Facile Vega can be given another chance but this is hardly the ideal preparation for him so it may be worth playing the unbeaten Marine Nationale who has been laid out for this.

Punters Lounge Tip: Marine National @ 7/2 NR NB at >Betfred - Click Here To Bet

by The Brigadier

 

[Tumbleweed King]

The Skybet Supreme Novices Hurdle (Grade 1) – 1:30PM

The opening two-mile contest is often run at a furious gallop, and it has often paid to sit in behind any frontrunner in recent years. Constitution Hill, Appreciate It, Shishkin, and Klassical Dream have all come from off the pace to win in the past three renewals. Leading trainer, Willie Mullins has a fantastic record in the race and has taken the coveted prize back across the Irish Sea on no fewer than seven occasions. Statistics show that horses need to have run at least twice so far this season and no winner in the last twenty renewals has won with any headgear (cheekpieces, visor or tongue-tie).

 

Year Horse Age Trainer Jockey 2022 Constitution Hill 5 Nicky Henderson N De Boinville 2021 Appreciate It 7 Willie Mullins P Townend 2020 Shishkin 6 Nicky Henderson N De Boinville 2019 Klassical Dream 5 Willie Mullins R Walsh 2018 Summerville Boy 6 Tom George N Fehily 2017 Labaik 6 Gordon Elliott J Kennedy 2016 Altior 6 Nicky Henderson N De Boinville 2015 Douvan 5 Willie Mullins R Walsh 2014 Vautour 5 Willie Mullins R Walsh 2013 Champagne Fever 6 Willie Mullins R Walsh 2012 Cinders & Ashes 5 Donald McCain J Maguire

FACILE VEGA (155)– WILLIE MULLINS & PAUL TOWNEND

Was far too keen for his own good when last seen in the Tattersalls Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown. Uncharacteristically he made a few errors and folded tamely two from home. The jockey came in for criticism and justifiably so. Willie Mullins is a master at bringing the good ones back and being a son of Quevega, this boy is all talent. He is a previous winner here as he took the champion bumper last season. Stats are against him but he will take some beating if back on song.

MARINE NATIONALE (150)– BARRY CONNELL & MICHAEL O’SULLIVAN

Hasn’t been seen since winning the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse back in December where he beat Irish Point by a head. That form on its own is not spectacular and the runner up has been readily brushed aside on a couple of occasions since. The stable think the world of him though and he comes here unbeaten. This looks to be the toughest field he has ever faced and a lack of experience at Cheltenham may count against him too.

IL ETAIT TEMPS (155) – WILLIE MULLINS & DANNY MULLINS

Caused at massive shock at the Dublin Racing Festival by finishing some twenty lengths ahead of his much preferred stablemate Facile Vega. He travelled supremely well from off a strong pace and gathered up his rivals some way from home. He ran on to record a near ten length victory over Inthepocket. He is certainly improving at a rate of knots and a fast run race could well set this up for him yet again. Four previous winners of the Tattersalls Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown have followed up here at Cheltenham within the last decade including Champagne Fever, Vautour, Klassical Dream and Appreciate It. If he has strengthened up again, he will prove a force to be reckoned with.

TAHMURAS (142) – PAUL NICHOLLS & HARRY COBDEN

Tahmuras is a proven Grade One winner and looks to be riding on the crest of a wave for Paul Nicholls. Unbeaten in three starts since going hurdling, the six-year-old looks to be the Ditcheat handlers best chance of winning this race since Al Ferof back in 2011. The form of that most recent race has been franked by Nemean Lion who won a Grade 2 Novices’ Hurdle just the other day and he certainly has strong each way claims.

HIGH DEFINITION (UNRATED) – JOSEPH O’BRIEN & JJ SLEVIN

He won on his debut for Joseph O’Brien in a pleasing fashion and got the better of Jetara. He was upped in grade but made costly errors and unseated his rider in no uncertain terms in the Tattersalls Novices’ Hurdle. He would really need to brush up his jumping and he departed too early to determine how much of a say he would have had in the finish. This course takes no prisoners and any flaws in his ability will be found out. This looks too big an ask at this stage.

CHASING FIRE (136) – OLLY MURPHY & AIDAN COLEMAN

Has been an impressive winner of all three starts so far this season. His wins have all been at a much lower level than any of his rivals and the form has been badly let down by the runner up subsequently. He is still open to any amount of improvement though and if he was trained by Henderson or Mullins he would be a much shorter price. Whatever he does here he will learn from and he can go onto bigger and brighter things next year.

RARE EDITION (138) – CHARLIE LONGSDON & SAM TWISTON-DAVIES

He had looked progressive earlier in the year but his tendency to jump right got him turned over at Huntingdon last time. If he does that here he will be in big trouble early on. Having been beaten in listed company last time he really does look up against it here. Charlie Longsdon has only ever trained six winners at this course since 2011 and all have been at a much lower level. Rare Edition may be one of the best he has ever trained but that still doesn’t look good enough,

DIVERGE (UNRATED) – WILLIE MULLINS & PADDY MULLINS

Was a wide margin winner at Punchestown when last seen out at the end of January. Despite beating the likes of Mon Couer and Slanagaibhgoleir, nothing from the race has come out to frank the form which is very disappointing. This looks a lot more difficult than the opposition he faced last time and both Danny Mullins and Paul Townend prefer their chances over him. That has to say a lot and he is readily passed over.

INTHEPOCKET (145) – HENRY DE BROMHEAD & RACHAEL BLACKMORE

Was no match for Il Etait Temps in the Tattersalls Novices’ Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. The yard has been struggling for form all year so it was a positive performance. Connections left it to the very last minute to declare him for this but he should be able to make the frame if further improvement comes. He relishes testing ground so if the rain continues to come it will bring him into the picture further.

DOCTOR BRAVO (140) – GORDON ELLIOTT & DAVY RUSSELL

Has yet to finish outside the first three places in any start and lost his maiden status over hurdles at Down Royal back in January. He was then upped in class into Grade 3 company and he ran well finishing third to stablemate Fil D’Or. He would take to take another massive leap forward to think that he could be in with troubling the best of these. Likely to run well for a while before fading in the closing stages.

DARK RAVEN (145) – WILLIE MULLINS & DARYL JACOB

Was perhaps given a little too much to do last time when beaten by both Il Etait Temps and Inthepocket at the Dublin Racing Festival. He looked like taking the runner-up spot but fluffed his chance at the second last flight of hurdles. A stronger gallop is likely to be on the agenda here and that may well suit him better. Not out of this by any means and could well be the proverbial dark horse in the line-up.

STRONG LEADER (133) – OLLY MURPHY & SEAN BOWEN

Was runner-up to Encanto Bruno in a bumper around here back in October. Since then he has gone on a three race unbeaten run winning a further two bumpers at Uttoxeter and Aintree. He also made a winning debut over hurdles at Southwell but this will take a massive leap forward. The yard are in fantastic form though and no surprise if he defies his likely long odds to pass a few of these when they have cried enough.

FENNOR CROSS (134) – JOHN MCCONNELL & SIMON TORRENS

Is a smart dual purpose performer and has already scored twice over this course and distance including in Grade 2 company. He has not been seen in action since mid-November, but he has won after similar breaks in the past so is unlikely to be found wanting for fitness. If the major players fail to run their race he could well take full advantage. He is interesting all the same and he will likely have better days ahead of him.

PALACE BOY (125) – FERGAL O’BRIEN & PADDY BRENNAN

Was firmly put in his place by Luccia in a Novices’ Hurdle last month. That is a level below what is required here and he looks completely out of his depth. Will be truly found out in this company.

Ante-post Prices

7/4 Facile Vega , 7/2 Marine Nationale , 5/1 Il Etait Temps , 8/1 Tahmuras , 12/1 High Definition , 16/1 Diverge , 20/1 Dark Raven , 20/1 Chasing Fire , 20/1 Inthepocket , 20/1 Doctor Bravo , 25/1 Rare Edition, 33/1 Strong Leader , 50/1 Fennor Cross , 150/1 Palace Boy

Key Trends

9 of the past 10 winners won last time out.

6 of the past 8 winners were rated 153+

8 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson.

SUMMARY

IL ETAIT TEMPS could well be the answer to this tricky puzzle. There was no fluke about the manner of his last won in top class company during the Dublin Racing Festival. With Facile Vega now with a cloud hanging over him following his blow-out in the same race he will have competition for the lead here and that could put him in an uncomfortable position. The winner of the Tattersalls Novices’ Hurdle has won this four times in the last decade and all were trained by Willie Mullins. Paul Nicholls can take comfort in the fact that he has a Grade One winner in the shape of Tahmuras. His recent win was given a significant boost at Kelso quite recently and he may outrun his double priced odds.

Selection: IL ETAIT TEMPS

Edited 1 minute ago by Tumbleweed King (see edit history)

[StevieDay1983]

Class preview there, @Tumbleweed King. Backing your pick for the tipster competition so fingers crossed! Very tough one to call though with some of those odds flying around.