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Darran
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Darran got a reaction from vikki37 in Racing Chat - Tuesday 5th May
An all jumps card in Australia is very rare, indeed it didn't happen for the first time until a couple of years ago. Jumps racing only happens in South Australia and Victoria so the industry is pretty small, but it does seem to be thriving again. Warranmbool's May Carnival is usually held over 3 days and all 3 are mixed, however with all racing behind closed doors it was decided to just do 2 days and have a jumps day and a flat day. Originally there was meant to be a 6 race card, but the maiden hurdle which opens the card has been divided 3 times to make an 8 race card. Also usually horses run in the Brierly on the Tuesday over 3450m and the Grand Annual on the Thursday over 5500m, but this year horses have had to pick one or the other. The meeting is certainly one for the bucket list as it looks a hell of an experience although like I say there will be no crowd there this year. Hopefully I can point you in the way of a few winners on the card.
Race 1 (2.45am)
The two at the front of the market ran at Pakenham last month and despite So Belaftone finishing 4th and My King's Counsel 5th it is the latter that is just shading it at the top of the market at the time of writing. I'd say that is probably down to the fact that My King's Counsel was making his hurdling debut whereas So Belafonte was having his 3rd start. I thought his was the better run though and he is going to be the pick. He ran well over course and distance in March finishing 3rd to Diamond Star Halo, but then a week later he was a big disappointment at Terang. The Pakenham run was his best yet for me as I think it was a strong race and I think he can finish in front of My King's Counsel again.
We have two hurdling debutants at the front end of the market as well and they both ran in trial here last week. Casa Larada finished in front of Arkamun and I thought he looked the more impressive of the two as well Casa Larada is the more likely winner of those two for me.
So Belaftone @ 5/2 with everyone bar Betfair
Race 2 (3.25am)
An interesting race this as the two at the front of the market Scholarly and Exemplar are the two best flat horses in the race, but both disappointed on their hurdling debut. The former made mistakes late on and finished 7th of 8 and the latter made a bad mistake at the 2nd at Pakenham last month and was pulled up. His jockey really likes him and he could be capable of better here.
I think it is worth taking them on though with a couple. Cheners looks a fair e/w price to me. Yes he is more exposed than the others here having had 8 hurdle starts, but it was his best run last time at Pakenham when he was 2nd in the the same race So Belaftone was 4th in. He looked the winner until Riding High flew home to grab him just before the line. That was on the back of a fair run over course and distance so he could be improving despite having the most experience.
Bakery Hill is the other one I like as he looks just the type who can do well over hurdles. Anthony Freedman doesn't train many jumpers so it is interesting he is sending jumping and he won a BM58 over 2600m on his last start. He hasn't exactly been asked much in his hurdle trials so you can't take too much from them, but he has jumped well.
Longclaw is also making his jumping debut and could be up to this, but he his jumping hasn't been great in his 5 trials although he hasn't been asked for much so it could be he jumps better at racing speed.
Cheners e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred
Bakery Hill @ 19/5 with Bet365
Race 3 (4.05am)
This looks a 2 horse race with Sir Isaac Newton having his 2nd start over hurdles after his 3rd at Pakenham. At the top of the straight he looked like he was going to be the winner as he was cruising, but he didn't find a great deal when asked for an effort. Now it could be because he hadn't run in a race since 2018, but he didn't always find much for pressure on the flat and the fact he did the same at Pakenham does concern me.
He clearly could win this, but I am going to oppose him with Inayforhay. He is making his hurdling debut, but was really impressive in a trial here last week when I was especially taken with his jumping. He's had a couple of runs on the flat this prep as well to help with fitness and I take him to beat Sir Isaac Newton.
Inayforhay @ 11/5 with Betfred
Race 4 (4.45am)
With the non-runners Diamond Star Halo looks like he is going to go off odds on in the Champion Novice Hurdle, but he looks capable of justifying the short price. He was a 15L 2nd to Ablaze on his hurdle debut in August and is 2/2 this prep with the form looking strong. He won by 7L last time and with he looks likely to get an easy lead with no other pace in the race. If there is little speed then that wont help Riding High who as mentioned above flew home at Pakenham. If the ground had been heavy then Flying Agent would have been the value as he was very impressive at Ballarat in August. That was on a Heavy 10 and I think he would have needed that sort of ground to be capable of beating the favourite.
Diamond Star Halo at Evs with Betfred
Race 5 (5.25am)
Georgethefifth is an ex New Zealand horse who has good form, but he does find it hard to actually get his head in front and for that reason I am going to try and take the favourite on. I will add though that he is locally trained and there is every chance this has been the target for him so it will be a surprise if he isn't thereabouts. Speedy Jax is very consistent and has won 4 jumps races, which is more than any other horse in the race. Tremec ran well last time at a big price and if he did happen to run to that form again then he would be a big player, but that was way above his over jumps form so that can't be a given.
It is annoying that we are down to 7 runners as I was going to back a couple e/w, but instead will have a couple of small win bets. Ours is a horse I have followed since he impressed when winning at Hamilton last April. Like the favourite he also used to be trained in New Zealand when he was a good horse. After that Hamilton win he went to Oakbank twice where he was poor in the Von Doussa and then 2 out. He's had a few trials this year as well as 3 flat starts to get him ready for this. It could be this is a stepping stone for something else, but if he is ready he should be much shorter in the betting.
Newbury is the other horse worth a pop at a big price. He has had 2 poor runs over fences this year, but he trialled well here last week beating Markwood. He was just beaten by Ours at Hamilton last April and then was a solid 4th in the Brierly over course and distance a year ago. If he brings that form to this contest he is a big player for me.
Ours @ 9/1 with Betfred
Newbury @ 10/1 with Betfred
Race 6 (6.05am)
The Brierly looks an open race and looked one of the more trickier races on the card. Slowpoke Rodriguez is taking his chance in this instead of the Grand Annual a race he ran in in 2017 and 2019. In 2017 he looked set to win until falling at the last and then last year he was 4th. His flat form leading into this has been good and he should go well, but I just wonder if he might want further.
I put up The Dominator at Pakenham last tine, but he was just beaten by Euroman who benefitted from a good ride from Steve Pateman as his reign broke after the last. I do think The Dominator could reverse form though as that was his first chase run in nearly 2 years so he should come on for it, he is better of at the weights and he likes at here which is a different test to Pakenham. Pateman was offered the ride on The Dominator, but he does stick with Euroman. He might have got it wrong though.
I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Getting Leggie at a double figure price. He is improving on every chase start and was a good 2nd at Pakenham last time behind a good horse. He trialled well last week when finishing alongside Gold Medals and Zed Em. At a big price he is worth taking a chance on.
The Dominator @ 18/5 with Bet365
Getting Leggie e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred
Race 7 (6.45am)
The feature race on the card is the Grand Annual over 5500m and it is set to be a cracker. Ablaze is the odds on favourite for this and he does look a very good horse, being a decent flat horse as well as being 3 from 3 over jumps. He's never been this far over jumps, but won the Jericho Cup over 4600m on the level so it shouldn't be a concern. He can clearly win this, but he seems short enough for me. He was a late non-runner at Pakenham when due to race in the same contest as Zed Em and the fact he wasn't great in a trial here last week does make you wonder if he is going to have enough in his legs for this test. To be fair his jockey Irishman Shane Jackson wasn't concerned about his trial, is expecting a lot better here and can't understand why people are having a pop. The thing is though on the back of it you just can't back him at such short odds in my view.
Zed Em was 2nd in this to Gold Medals two years ago and then the placings were reversed last year. Gold Medals came into this on the back of finishing 2nd in the Brierly last year something he obviously isn't able to do this time around. He hasn't run over fences since finishing 2nd in the Australian Chase last May at Sandown, but he won the trail last week in front of Zed Em and Ablaze and I thought he looked really good. Zed Em was really poor at Pakenham where his trainer thought he got bored because of the long space between fences there. He was better in the trial, but I still find it hard to back him after that Pakenham run. To me Gold Medals is the value here.
Gold Medals @ 100/30 with Betfred
Race 8 (7.30am)
The Galleywood is the big hurdle race on the card and we have the 3rd odds on favourite of the meeting in the shape of Runaway. He was a classy horse on the flat, but had lost his way and hurdling has seen him find his form again and he has been impressive on both starts to date including at Pakenham last time. His winning times haven't been that quick though and there could be some value in taking him on. Ancient King looks a solid e/w bet to me. I thought he was impressive at Pakenham in what was his first jumps start for 2 years. He should improve again for that and he won in a quicker time than Runaway as well. Does have to give him 5kgs here though which is a lot, but he looks good e/w value.
Robbie's Star wouldn't be out of this despite finishing 2nd to Ancient King last time, but he likes it heavy and it might not be testing enough for him to reverse that form.
I am going to back Woodsman as well, who was also quicker than Runaway when they both won here in March. That was his first run in Australia for the New Zealand trained runner and he had Euroman back in 3rd. He has since run in the Ternag Cup on the level and was a good 5th given it was a run that was just going to keep him ticking over for this. I will take him and Ancient King against the favourite.
Ancient King e/w @ 7/1 with Betfred
Woodsman @ 100/30 with Betfred
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Darran got a reaction from kroni in Racing Chat - Tuesday 5th May
An all jumps card in Australia is very rare, indeed it didn't happen for the first time until a couple of years ago. Jumps racing only happens in South Australia and Victoria so the industry is pretty small, but it does seem to be thriving again. Warranmbool's May Carnival is usually held over 3 days and all 3 are mixed, however with all racing behind closed doors it was decided to just do 2 days and have a jumps day and a flat day. Originally there was meant to be a 6 race card, but the maiden hurdle which opens the card has been divided 3 times to make an 8 race card. Also usually horses run in the Brierly on the Tuesday over 3450m and the Grand Annual on the Thursday over 5500m, but this year horses have had to pick one or the other. The meeting is certainly one for the bucket list as it looks a hell of an experience although like I say there will be no crowd there this year. Hopefully I can point you in the way of a few winners on the card.
Race 1 (2.45am)
The two at the front of the market ran at Pakenham last month and despite So Belaftone finishing 4th and My King's Counsel 5th it is the latter that is just shading it at the top of the market at the time of writing. I'd say that is probably down to the fact that My King's Counsel was making his hurdling debut whereas So Belafonte was having his 3rd start. I thought his was the better run though and he is going to be the pick. He ran well over course and distance in March finishing 3rd to Diamond Star Halo, but then a week later he was a big disappointment at Terang. The Pakenham run was his best yet for me as I think it was a strong race and I think he can finish in front of My King's Counsel again.
We have two hurdling debutants at the front end of the market as well and they both ran in trial here last week. Casa Larada finished in front of Arkamun and I thought he looked the more impressive of the two as well Casa Larada is the more likely winner of those two for me.
So Belaftone @ 5/2 with everyone bar Betfair
Race 2 (3.25am)
An interesting race this as the two at the front of the market Scholarly and Exemplar are the two best flat horses in the race, but both disappointed on their hurdling debut. The former made mistakes late on and finished 7th of 8 and the latter made a bad mistake at the 2nd at Pakenham last month and was pulled up. His jockey really likes him and he could be capable of better here.
I think it is worth taking them on though with a couple. Cheners looks a fair e/w price to me. Yes he is more exposed than the others here having had 8 hurdle starts, but it was his best run last time at Pakenham when he was 2nd in the the same race So Belaftone was 4th in. He looked the winner until Riding High flew home to grab him just before the line. That was on the back of a fair run over course and distance so he could be improving despite having the most experience.
Bakery Hill is the other one I like as he looks just the type who can do well over hurdles. Anthony Freedman doesn't train many jumpers so it is interesting he is sending jumping and he won a BM58 over 2600m on his last start. He hasn't exactly been asked much in his hurdle trials so you can't take too much from them, but he has jumped well.
Longclaw is also making his jumping debut and could be up to this, but he his jumping hasn't been great in his 5 trials although he hasn't been asked for much so it could be he jumps better at racing speed.
Cheners e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred
Bakery Hill @ 19/5 with Bet365
Race 3 (4.05am)
This looks a 2 horse race with Sir Isaac Newton having his 2nd start over hurdles after his 3rd at Pakenham. At the top of the straight he looked like he was going to be the winner as he was cruising, but he didn't find a great deal when asked for an effort. Now it could be because he hadn't run in a race since 2018, but he didn't always find much for pressure on the flat and the fact he did the same at Pakenham does concern me.
He clearly could win this, but I am going to oppose him with Inayforhay. He is making his hurdling debut, but was really impressive in a trial here last week when I was especially taken with his jumping. He's had a couple of runs on the flat this prep as well to help with fitness and I take him to beat Sir Isaac Newton.
Inayforhay @ 11/5 with Betfred
Race 4 (4.45am)
With the non-runners Diamond Star Halo looks like he is going to go off odds on in the Champion Novice Hurdle, but he looks capable of justifying the short price. He was a 15L 2nd to Ablaze on his hurdle debut in August and is 2/2 this prep with the form looking strong. He won by 7L last time and with he looks likely to get an easy lead with no other pace in the race. If there is little speed then that wont help Riding High who as mentioned above flew home at Pakenham. If the ground had been heavy then Flying Agent would have been the value as he was very impressive at Ballarat in August. That was on a Heavy 10 and I think he would have needed that sort of ground to be capable of beating the favourite.
Diamond Star Halo at Evs with Betfred
Race 5 (5.25am)
Georgethefifth is an ex New Zealand horse who has good form, but he does find it hard to actually get his head in front and for that reason I am going to try and take the favourite on. I will add though that he is locally trained and there is every chance this has been the target for him so it will be a surprise if he isn't thereabouts. Speedy Jax is very consistent and has won 4 jumps races, which is more than any other horse in the race. Tremec ran well last time at a big price and if he did happen to run to that form again then he would be a big player, but that was way above his over jumps form so that can't be a given.
It is annoying that we are down to 7 runners as I was going to back a couple e/w, but instead will have a couple of small win bets. Ours is a horse I have followed since he impressed when winning at Hamilton last April. Like the favourite he also used to be trained in New Zealand when he was a good horse. After that Hamilton win he went to Oakbank twice where he was poor in the Von Doussa and then 2 out. He's had a few trials this year as well as 3 flat starts to get him ready for this. It could be this is a stepping stone for something else, but if he is ready he should be much shorter in the betting.
Newbury is the other horse worth a pop at a big price. He has had 2 poor runs over fences this year, but he trialled well here last week beating Markwood. He was just beaten by Ours at Hamilton last April and then was a solid 4th in the Brierly over course and distance a year ago. If he brings that form to this contest he is a big player for me.
Ours @ 9/1 with Betfred
Newbury @ 10/1 with Betfred
Race 6 (6.05am)
The Brierly looks an open race and looked one of the more trickier races on the card. Slowpoke Rodriguez is taking his chance in this instead of the Grand Annual a race he ran in in 2017 and 2019. In 2017 he looked set to win until falling at the last and then last year he was 4th. His flat form leading into this has been good and he should go well, but I just wonder if he might want further.
I put up The Dominator at Pakenham last tine, but he was just beaten by Euroman who benefitted from a good ride from Steve Pateman as his reign broke after the last. I do think The Dominator could reverse form though as that was his first chase run in nearly 2 years so he should come on for it, he is better of at the weights and he likes at here which is a different test to Pakenham. Pateman was offered the ride on The Dominator, but he does stick with Euroman. He might have got it wrong though.
I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Getting Leggie at a double figure price. He is improving on every chase start and was a good 2nd at Pakenham last time behind a good horse. He trialled well last week when finishing alongside Gold Medals and Zed Em. At a big price he is worth taking a chance on.
The Dominator @ 18/5 with Bet365
Getting Leggie e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred
Race 7 (6.45am)
The feature race on the card is the Grand Annual over 5500m and it is set to be a cracker. Ablaze is the odds on favourite for this and he does look a very good horse, being a decent flat horse as well as being 3 from 3 over jumps. He's never been this far over jumps, but won the Jericho Cup over 4600m on the level so it shouldn't be a concern. He can clearly win this, but he seems short enough for me. He was a late non-runner at Pakenham when due to race in the same contest as Zed Em and the fact he wasn't great in a trial here last week does make you wonder if he is going to have enough in his legs for this test. To be fair his jockey Irishman Shane Jackson wasn't concerned about his trial, is expecting a lot better here and can't understand why people are having a pop. The thing is though on the back of it you just can't back him at such short odds in my view.
Zed Em was 2nd in this to Gold Medals two years ago and then the placings were reversed last year. Gold Medals came into this on the back of finishing 2nd in the Brierly last year something he obviously isn't able to do this time around. He hasn't run over fences since finishing 2nd in the Australian Chase last May at Sandown, but he won the trail last week in front of Zed Em and Ablaze and I thought he looked really good. Zed Em was really poor at Pakenham where his trainer thought he got bored because of the long space between fences there. He was better in the trial, but I still find it hard to back him after that Pakenham run. To me Gold Medals is the value here.
Gold Medals @ 100/30 with Betfred
Race 8 (7.30am)
The Galleywood is the big hurdle race on the card and we have the 3rd odds on favourite of the meeting in the shape of Runaway. He was a classy horse on the flat, but had lost his way and hurdling has seen him find his form again and he has been impressive on both starts to date including at Pakenham last time. His winning times haven't been that quick though and there could be some value in taking him on. Ancient King looks a solid e/w bet to me. I thought he was impressive at Pakenham in what was his first jumps start for 2 years. He should improve again for that and he won in a quicker time than Runaway as well. Does have to give him 5kgs here though which is a lot, but he looks good e/w value.
Robbie's Star wouldn't be out of this despite finishing 2nd to Ancient King last time, but he likes it heavy and it might not be testing enough for him to reverse that form.
I am going to back Woodsman as well, who was also quicker than Runaway when they both won here in March. That was his first run in Australia for the New Zealand trained runner and he had Euroman back in 3rd. He has since run in the Ternag Cup on the level and was a good 5th given it was a run that was just going to keep him ticking over for this. I will take him and Ancient King against the favourite.
Ancient King e/w @ 7/1 with Betfred
Woodsman @ 100/30 with Betfred
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Darran got a reaction from notanotherdonkey in Racing Chat - Sunday May 3rd
I always watch it as live in the morning either via Sky or Racing.com for the meetings they don't show. You just have to cover the result on your phone/laptop and press the replay button. Don't use the Racing Post for Australian form as it is incomplete and they only put the bigger races up anyway. If it is Victoria or South Australian you want then Racing.com is the best place to go. It is totally free to sign up for an account and the coverage is superb. Punters.com.au covers them all and is another site I use. When I am in Australia I always buy a paper called The Winning Post which comes out on a Friday over there. One advantage with all this is that it is now available online and is ready to purchase on a Thursday morning UK time. It is just over £2.50 and the fact I have been able to get hold of a copy has been a massive help with doing my previews. They cover Friday - Monday meetings so plenty to go to war with should you wish.
Just going to add the official Racing Australia website which is racingaustralia.horse
Seen that you want something you can see all the past form of a horse and this site allows you to do that very easily. This is the link for the Warrnambool card to Tuesday as an example
https://www.racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/AllForm.aspx?Key=2020May05%2CVIC%2CWarrnambool&recentForm=N
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Darran got a reaction from Trotter in Racing Chat - Sunday May 3rd
I always watch it as live in the morning either via Sky or Racing.com for the meetings they don't show. You just have to cover the result on your phone/laptop and press the replay button. Don't use the Racing Post for Australian form as it is incomplete and they only put the bigger races up anyway. If it is Victoria or South Australian you want then Racing.com is the best place to go. It is totally free to sign up for an account and the coverage is superb. Punters.com.au covers them all and is another site I use. When I am in Australia I always buy a paper called The Winning Post which comes out on a Friday over there. One advantage with all this is that it is now available online and is ready to purchase on a Thursday morning UK time. It is just over £2.50 and the fact I have been able to get hold of a copy has been a massive help with doing my previews. They cover Friday - Monday meetings so plenty to go to war with should you wish.
Just going to add the official Racing Australia website which is racingaustralia.horse
Seen that you want something you can see all the past form of a horse and this site allows you to do that very easily. This is the link for the Warrnambool card to Tuesday as an example
https://www.racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/AllForm.aspx?Key=2020May05%2CVIC%2CWarrnambool&recentForm=N
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Darran got a reaction from kroni in Racing Chat - Saturday 2nd May
Thursday should have been all about studying the form and writing the preview for Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night, one of my favourite days of the year. Instead I spent it looking at Morphettville, Sandown and Randwick! Hopefully that work can still be profitable and it is certainly jump racing weather in Australia at the moment and we are looking at heavy ground at Morphettville and Sandown. It has been a bit better in Syndey though and I reckon by race time it will be either a Soft 5 or Good 4 at Randwick. I will start in Adelaide where the Autumn Carnival there steps up another notch with two G1 races on the card. I have 3 bets at Morphettville, 4 bets at Sandown and 4 bets at Randwick (they are racing on the Kensington track and Bet365 have it as Kensington).
Morphettville R6 (6.16am)
Garner is the main pick in the G2 Euclase Stakes. He was really impressive when taking a Listed Race here a couple of weeks ago over 1100m. He was ridden off the speed that day and finished with great effect. The time before when 2nd at the start of April he had to make an early move and he was caught late on. He handles a soft track well so hopefully he will handle a heavy track which is an unknown. He had Xilong back in 4th that day and although it was her 1st run in 7 weeks it is hard to see her reversing form. She did beat him by 5L over course and distance 2nd up last prep, but at these weights I think Garner can make the score 2-1 here.
I will be having a small e/w saver on Broadwayandfourth who runs here in a G2 instead of going to Sandown for a handicap. She didn't run too badly the G1 Coolmore at the Melbourne Cup Carnival in November and has run well in both starts this prep, the first of which came on heavy ground. Last time she came home in the 2nd fastest last 200m of the day at Caulfield and this step up to 1200m is ideal. She looks over priced at double figures.
Garner @ 15/8 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway
Broadwayandfourth e/w @ 11/1 with BetVictor
Morphettville R7 (6.56am)
The 1st of the G1 is the Schweppes Oaks and I think Chris Waller holds in the key here. I put up Betcha Flying last week when she won at Flemington and I was tempted again, but I am going to back the other two Waller trained runners in Toffee Tongue and Nudge. Toffee Tongue has finished 2nd on her last 4 starts now and is actually still a maiden, but it is clear she is a very good horse. She has bumped into Colette the last twice, first of all in a G3 over 2000m at Randwick and then the week after in the ATC Oaks over 2400m. Both were on heavy ground so that isn't a concern and I am not worried about her dropping back to 2000m either. For me that is the best form in the race and the fact we know she handles testing ground is crucial.
Nudge also ran in the ATC Oaks last time and finished 4th. She was 3rd in the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill over this trip the time before and that was a very good effort. The drop down to this trip will suit and she looks in very good form at the moment.
Affair To Remember is the favourite at the moment and she is looking fairly progressive. She won a BM64 at Sandown a month ago over 1600m and then was an unlucky 3rd at Caulfield last time over the same trip. It looks like she will handle the step up to 2000m, but she doesn't have the G1 form the two picks have so I am happy to take the Waller pair.
Toffee Tongue @ 11/2 with Betfair
Nudge e/w 15/2 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway (all 4 places)
Morphettville R9 (8.15am)
R8 is the feature race on the card and I was tempted by Sunlight as I think she is the best horse in the race. She doesn't have a great draw though and the heavy ground is an unknown so at the prices I will leave her. The 2yo Away Game who I put up the other week when she won only has to carry 47kg, but 2yo don't have a great record in G1 weight for age races in Australia and she has been on the go for a while now.
I do have a bet in the last race though. Jungle Edge is 9 and is having his 79th start, but I like his chances here. He has never won on a good track all 17 wins have been on soft or heavy ground. He will love ground conditions here and he was in good form in Sydney prior to coming last in the G1 Galaxy last time in March. He has very rarely missed the frame on a heavy track so he should go close here.
Jungle Edge @ 7/2 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway
Sandown R2 (3.30am)
This looks a 2 horse race between Duke Of Plumpton and Shot Of Irish and I am with the former. The heavy ground won't be an issue as he won on it in New Zealand back in October and he made a winning start to his Australian career a month ago when winning at Echucha. That was only a BM70 at a country track so he steps up into a stronger race here, but he looked really good when winning that day and there should be more to come. Shot Of Irish is very consistent and has won 6 of his 20 starts. He ran well enough last time at Caulfield which was his first run in just under 2 months. He has won 3 times in heavy ground so that won't be an issue, but for me Duke Of Plumpton looks a horse who could go continue to go through the grades.
Duke Of Plumpton @ 21/20 with Bet365
Sandown R6 (6.05am)
An interesting race this featuring horses who started their lives in the UK and it is two of them I am putting up. Starcaster looks likely to go off favourite and he was trained for a couple of seasons by Hughie Morrison before going to Jedd O'Keefe for a couple of starts a year ago. He won on his final start for him at York's Dante meeting when an impressive winner off 82. Reading O'Keefe's quotes after the race he suggests that there is every chance he will improve with age and gelding him seemed to have improved him as well. That race was on good to firm ground though and although he did win on good to soft it was only a 4 runner race at Chepstow. He has had 3 starts in Australia two last year when running well enough at Caulfield and Flemington and then this prep he was a winner at Geelong in a BM84 last month. That was over 1700m and going up to 2100m should suit, but I there has to be a question mark about a heavy track for him so I am going to pass him over.
Surrey Thunder gets to carry the same weight as Starcaster in this, but if it was run in this country the ex Joseph Tuite runner would have to give him 12lbs. As his rating of 104 would suggest Surrey Thunder was running in good races and he was 5th in the German Derby last year. He also ran pretty well against Addeybb in the Rose Of Lancaster last year. After that he won a Listed Race at Clairefontaine. He has gone to Chris Waller's yard and has run well enough over trips short of his best in his first two starts up in Sydney this prep. He also had excuses as he didn't get a clear run 1st up and 2nd up he finished lame. Testing ground isn't an issue and up to 2100m I think he has a good chance.
I mentioned Midterm last week as a horse who could have run well in Vow And Declares race, but he came out of that. He isn't a prolific winner, but he ran really well to come 2nd in the Easter Cup at Caulfield last time and he handles testing ground. He's never one to go over board on and he was a 100/1 shot last time, but I am happy to take a small e/w chance on him in this.
Surrey Thunder @ 7/1 with Betfair
Midterm e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill and BetVictor
Sandown R8 (7.25am)
Mystery Love should be the one to go off favourite and she has won 4/6 and bolted up at Caulfield 1st up. The concern for me though is testing ground so I am going to take a couple against her. Barthelona looks set to peak after two good runs so far this prep. 1st up he was beaten a short head at Bendigo, before flying home at Caulfield last month where his final 200m was the 2nd fastest of the day. He disappointed last prep, but those two runs this prep suggest he is back to his best. He will have no worries about the track.
Anjana is the other one I like. She has been highly tried at times and two of her last 5 runs have been in G1 company. Her last run was decent especially given she was found to have an issue after the race at Caulfield. I think she is a good horse and she won her only start on heavy. With blinkers going on for the first time I am hopeful she can put in a big performance.
Barthelona e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred (William Hill are 7/1 with 4 places)
Anjana e/w @ 9/1 with William Hill 4 places
Sandown R9 (7.55)
Annother ex UK horse lines up here in the shape of Buffalo River. He had 4 starts for John Gosden in 2018 winning the last of them. He looked a promising horse at the time and he has built on that promise in Australia. He has won 4 of his 5 starts all on soft or heavy ground as it was last time at Caulfield. The only tie he didn't win was in the Silver Eagle at Randwick in October and given that was his only run of that prep I am guessing all wasn't right that day. He won over course and distance in June and he is likely to try and make all the running. He looks a good horse and is more than capable of winning again
Buffalo River @ 11/10 with everyone
Randwick R2 (3.15am)
Yonkers and Amitto are the two I like here. Yonkers backs up having finished a length 3rd to Welsh Legend who re-opposes here. I think he can reverse the form at these revised weights. That was his first run for six weeks and he had to work hard early on so the fact he was able to stay on gamely for 3rd was pleasing to see. They pulled clear of the rest and with that run under his belt he is capable of going two places better.
Amitto looks an improving horse and only once has she finished out of the 1st 2 on 8 starts. She has won her last 2 starts and the Warwick Farm performance last time was a good one given she had to come from last to first and was still only 6th 400m from home. She was comfortable at the line and she looks up to winning a race like this.
Yonkers @ 15/4 with Betfair
Amitto @ 11/4 with William Hill
Randwick R3 (3.50am)
Jailbreak is the one I like in this race. Toro Toro did finish 2 places in from over 1200m here last month, but I think Jailbreak can reverse the form. He ran the join fastest last 200m of the day in that contest and that suggests that stepping up to 1400m will be ideal for him. Toro Toro had been prominent the whole way and Jailbreak would have beaten him had the race been over this trip. Jailbreak also has a better draw than he had on that occasion.
Jailbreak @ 3/1 with Bet365
Randwick R6 (5.45am)
Rocha Clock and So Taken are my two against the field in the this BM78. Rocha Clock made her first start in a G3 here over 1400m last month and she didn't really give herself much of a chance as she was keen out in front. That combined with a lack of a recent run meant she had nothing left in the home straight and she only beat a couple home. Her trainer stated after that race that she would be ridden quieter this time around which should mean a much better performance back in a handicap.
So Taken also drops in class having been in a BM88 last time. She will be held up and will be looking to finish fast. She didn't get a run at all in that race a couple of weeks ago. Indeed she didn't get a clear run until 120m so had no real chance of winning the race. Up in trip to 1300m, which she is 2/2 over, will be ideal and if she gets the breaks she will go close.
Rocha Clock @ 9/4 with Betfair & BetVictor
So Taken @ 9/2 with everyone
Randwick R7 (6.25am)
Godolphin's Hilo is the horse I like in this contest. He is a 3yo going back into all aged handicap company, but I really liked his two runs in 3yo Listed Race's the last twice. I thought he did enough early to make the running last time and the form of that race is strong with Indy Car winning and Icebath finishing 2nd. He won over course and distance 3 starts back in a BM70 and that was a good effort. This is a BM88 but he is clearly a progressive 3yo.
Hilo @ 23/10 with Bet365
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Darran got a reaction from blueboy199 in Racing Chat - Saturday 25th April
Can see him finishing 4th now! Some bookies might still offer a 4th place as a bonus.
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Darran got a reaction from blueboy199 in Racing Chat - Saturday 25th April
Flemington and Rosehill are the two main meetings in Australia on Saturday. First of all the Rosehill meeting should have been at Hawkesbury, but has been moved because of the virus. Secondly it is Anzac Day which is a huge deal in Australia. I have bets in 4 races at both venues.
Flemington R2 (4.40am)
Lamu is a French import who ran an eye-catching race on her Australian debut at Sandown. She finished 4th over 1300m, but she flew home to be only beaten a length. At the 400m marker she had just one horse behind her and not surprisingly she ended up having the fastest last 200m in the race. Based on that and her French form he step up in trip to 1600m should be ideal for her. She was well backed at Sandown as well so someone was clearly expecting a big run. She has a good chance here.
The other bet in the race is Cryptic Jewel. She finished last in a G3 at Rosehill a month ago, but she had no cover and had to travel wide the whole way so I think it is safe to ignore that run. Prior to that she had run well in a G3 over course and distance when finishing 5th. Back into a handicap I think she is capable of showing better.
Lamu @ 16/5 with Betfair
Cryptic Jewel @ 13/2 with everyone
Flemington R4 (5.50am)
He might have top weight, but given he is a Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare clearly deserves it. I find it really hard to see him getting beat here. He has had two starts in G1 company this prep both over 2000m. First up he was a really good 3rd in the Australian Cup here and then 9th in the Queen Elizabeth a couple of weeks ago, but I would ignore that run as he had to do plenty of work early and it was his first run on heavy ground. Back up to a staying trip in a lesser grade on better ground is ideal for him. One thing they never really talk about in Australia is horses running from out of the handicap. Over here we would be all over the fact on two other horses are in the handicap proper, but they focus more on the weight they carry rather than what they should have carried. Both the next two in the betting Mirimar and Jack Regan should be carrying less weight in a true handicap and it is another reason why I am so keen on the top weight.
Midterm wasn't a prolific winner when trained in the UK and that has carried on Down Under, but he did run well last time and he might be capable of running better than his price.
Vow And Declare @ Evs with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred
Flemington R5 (6.25am)
There was going to be an odds on favourite for this and I was keen to take Russian Camelot on at the price, but he has been taken out. That does mean we have reduced odds, but there are 2 I like against the field. Betcha Flying was wide the whole way at Randwick in a G3 last time and was widest of all when they turned into the home straight. She stayed on nicely to finish 4th and although she is down in trip she had run well over 1600m in G3 company on her previous start at Moonee Valley. Back into handicap company here she looks to have a good chance.
Highland Jakk is the other one I like. He had finished 0.4L behind Russian Camelot at the Spring Carnival here in November when 3rd in Listed contest. Given the price difference there was between the two of them before Russian Camelot came out it was clear to me Highland Jakk looked value. He returned at Caulfield a couple of weeks ago when finishing a solid 5th. He should be fitter for that effort and there is a chance the soft ground was against him as well. He should be capable of better now especially up in trip.
Betcha Flying @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair and Betfred
Highland Jakk e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill and Betfred
Flemington R6 (7am)
The VRC St Leger is one of the few St Leger's in the world which is still only run for 3yo and this race is older than the Melbourne Cup. In recent years the winner hasn't gone on to do a great deal though so I wouldn't be expecting the winner to go on to great things.
The one I like the most is Scaramento who for me has the best form in the race having finished 5th in the ATC Derby at Randwick at the start of the month. He had to be niggled to make the running that day and had to work hard enough to get to the front so it wasn't a surprise he was over taken in the last 300m. Not only does he have the best form he looks set to get a very easy lead here and that could be crucial. This is a much easier race and he looks to have a top chance. His trainers have won this race the last two years and Gai Waterhouse also won it in 2013 and 2014.
There are a few here that are coming off the back of runs in handicaps or even maidens so there is a bit of unknown about how they will get on at this level, but the one I like most from those is Lindelani and she looks a bit of value at a big price. She looks every bit a stayer based on her runs so far. She finished really strongly at Sandown on Easter Monday and this trip looks sure to suit so happy to take a chance at a big price e/w.
Sacramento @ 5/1 with Betfair
Lindelani e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred (4 places)
Flemington R8 (8.10am)
Not having a bet in this race, but I am really interested to see how the ex Noel Meade trained Dadoozdart gets on. He looked really progressive last year in Ireland winning 3 on the bounce including the Ulster Derby in June. He seems to be well fancied in the market for this, but the quotes from connections after his wins in Ireland suggest a longer trip and soft ground would be much more suitable. I'm not saying he can't win, but I will be watching with the future in mind, because a longer trip and a bit of cut would be ideal for him. He has had 3 jump outs and has looked promising in all 3. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if they thought he might turn into a Melbourne Cup horse.
Rosehill R3 (5am)
Was going to put 2 up here, but McCormack is a non-runner so just going to stick with Oxford Tycoon. Grand Piano is going to be favourite and does have a very good chance after a good run in a G3 last time after a win the time before, but I think Oxford Tycoon is over the odds at a double figure price. He was 3rd in the Provincial Championship Final at Randwick a couple of weeks ago where he didn't get the clearest of runs until around the 350m mark where he stayed on well widest of all. He was backed that day as well so a big run was expected. He has only won over 1100m, but the the run over 1400m suggests he shouldn't have any issues about 1500m here especially on better ground.
Oxford Tycoon e/w @ 10/1 with everyone (all 4 places as well standard e/w terms in Oz are 3 regardless of 16 or more runners)
Rosehill R4 (5.35am)
In Her Time has had a fantastic career winning 9 of her 30 starts and I think she can end her racing life with a win in the G3 Hawkesbury Crown. At her best she was a G1 horse and ran a good 3rd to Nature Strip at Flemington in November. This prep she ran OK in a couple of G1 contests and then was 5th in a G3 last week when getting very little luck in running. It was very hard to come from the back at Randwick last week as well which is what she tried to do. She flew home though and her last 600m was the 3rd fastest all day. That suggests to me she is still capable of winning a race like this.
I am going to have a saver on Bangkok who is in flying form at the moment having finished 3rd the last twice in a G3 here and then a G2 at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. They were both over 1200m and she had the 2nd fastest last 200m of the day here and then the fastest last 200m of the day last time. Up to 1300m looks ideal and she has a great record over this trip. I doubt she will be far away.
In Her Time @ 5/2 with everyone
Bangkok @ 9/2 with Betfair
Rosehill R6 (6.45am)
Indy Car would have been one of the selections for this given his two impressive wins the last twice, but he has been sold to race in Hong Kong so he has come out of the Hawkesbury Guineas. So instead I will just go with the one and that horse finished 2nd to Indy Car last time. I'm not saying Icebath would have beaten Indy Car, but she didn't get any luck in running at all. She got blocked at a couple of crucial stages and didn't get a clear run until 200m out and then she few home. She was never going to reach the winner as she had too much ground to make up, but she would have made it interesting with a clear run. She might well have been capable of reversing form and she should go close. Dawn Passage looks the biggest danger as he hasn't had a great deal of luck either in both starts this prep, but it is Icebath for me.
Icebath @ 9/2 with Betfair
Rosehill R7 (7.20am)
The Hawkesbury Gold Cup looks competitive, but I think Amangiri can bounce back after a disappointing run last time. I didn't think she got the best of rides last time as she had to work hard to get to the lead and in G1 company on testing ground that was always likely to mean she had nothing left in the closing stages. She was a good 3rd 1st up in a G2 over course and distance a month ago and now she is in G3 company I think she will be able to run a big race. Crucially for me she has a great draw in 4 and she looks like she will get an easy time of things out in front when plenty of these need to be held up. Hopefully she can make all.
Amangiri @ 4/1 with Bet365
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Darran got a reaction from roger2256 in Racing Chat - Thursday Apr 23rd
Bet365 do on Aussie racing although it always says its not open to UK punters, but I have always had it with them.
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Darran got a reaction from EviL ZippY in Racing Chat - Thursday Apr 23rd
Back at Pakenham (Racing.com Park) tomorrow morning and I will be backing Mrs O'Malley in Race 6 at 10.30. She hasn't had a clear run of things this year as she has had a slightly unusual 1 run in January, 1 run in February and 1 earlier this month. The 2nd here over 1200m first up was a very good effort and then she was average over the same course and distance. That could be why she was off for 7 weeks and she returned in a BM64 at Echuca where she was 2nd, but the race wasn't run to suit as there was no pace in it and up to 1400m in a race that should have much more pace in it. She had good form last prep incuding finishing 2nd at Flemington over this trip in a BM84. There are a few dangers and ex Irish horse Fly For Yulong would be one of them, but at 7/2 with most bookies she is worth a bet.
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Darran got a reaction from blueboy199 in Racing Chat - Sunday Apr 19th
It was good to get the 1-2 in the All Aged Stakes earlier today with Tofone just getting the better of Pierata at a decent price and Selica got caught late on to deny us at Morphettville. Apart from that we didn't have too much go our way especially with the two Caulfield picks running way below par. Anyway we move on to Pakenham (also known as Racing.com Park) on Sunday and there are 5 jumps races on the card for those of you who are missing some jumping action.
Race 1 (2.30am)
The opener is a maiden hurdle and it sees Sir Isaac Newton make his hurdling debut. I am sure he needs no introduction having been trained by Aiden O'Brian in Ireland before going to Australia. On flat form he is by far the best horse in the race even though he probably wasn't quite as good as he was in Ireland. He hasn't run since November 2018 in a race, but one of the great things about Australian racing is they have public trials and he has had two last month. It also means we have seen him jump hurdles already. In the first he was quite novicey to start with, but got better as the trial went on. Jumping was better last time, but the concern was the fact he came last. Now his jockey made no real effort to go with the others, but it was still a bit concerning. The first trial though did prove the engine was still there.
The only other horse I think can win the race is Anaheim who on flat form is the 2nd best horse in the race. He's being running well on the flat this prep and he was lame after his start when he did disappoint. He has also had two trials over hurdles winning both, one in February and then at the beginning of this month. I was impressed with his jumping technique and we know he is fit ahead of his hurdles debut.
The others look a moderate bunch. Granted just because they have mainly been running in BM58 races on the flat doesn't mean they won't do something over hurdles, but those who have run over hurdles look pretty ordinary and we have two potentially good recruits here.
I am going to favour Anaheim here as he has fitness on his side and overall I was happier with his jumping in the trials. I think it is sensible to have some sort of cover bet on Sir Isaac Newton as well though given his class and the fact I don't fancy anything else in the race.
Anaheim @ 6/4 with Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfair
Sir Isaac Newton @ 23/10 with Bet365
Race 2 (3.10am)
3 in here with a chance for me Andrea Mantegna , Runaway and Exemplar. Andrea Mantegna has the most hurdling experience of the 3 having run 6 times for 1 win, 2 2nds and 2 3rds. He was 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle at Morphettville last June which was a good effort and he won a hurdle trial last time. He's been running OK in 3 flat runs this prep although he has to give weight away to the other 2 and that might tell.
Exemplar is making is hurdling debut and is having his 1st race since finishing last to Shared Ambition on Melbourne Cup day. He is a decent horse on the level though and has had a couple of hurdle trials including last time when he was in one with Runaway. He was 17L behind Runaway there although his jockey didn't make any real effort to win it. Speaking of Runaway he hasn't been showing a great deal on the flat of late, but is clearly enjoying going over hurdles and he bolted up by 12L on his hurdling debut last month. With that experience behind him I think he is the one to beat and we know he is fit. As an aside Runaway is a rig which you don't see very often.
Runaway @ 7/5 with Bet365
Race 3 (3.50am)
The big hurdle race on the card is the MJ Bourke Hurdle and I have this between Bit Of A Lad, Gobstopper, Mr One eleven and Northern Voyage.
Bit Of a lad was 2nd to Ablaze in a chase last time and that looks good form given how good Ablaze looks. He won the Brierly Chase last year which is a big race at the Warrnambool Carnival in April and May. It has been a while since he last ran over hurdles, but if he can show his chase form he should run well.
Gobstopper has won 3 of his 5 races over hurdles including a easy success last month. He didn't show much on the flat the next time and he was behind Mr One Eleven on the flat in February.
Mr One Eleven won this race last year which was the middle of a hat-trick. He then finished 2nd to Big Blue (the horse who has been running over here in the last few months) in the Galleywood at the Warrnambool. He lost his form after that, but his flat form has looked decent in races he has mainly been a big price in.
Northern Voyage won a couple of hurdles last August and then was 2nd to Ablaze. He won a couple of trials including beating Woodsman on his return, but in his first race Woodsman beat him at Warrnambool last month. He was really well backed on that occasion and you would imagine he should improve for it.
I am going to side with last year's winner Mr One Eleven who has been in good form on the level and his best hurdling form was at this time of year last time around.
Mr One Eleven 4/1 with Betfred
Race 4 (4.30am)
The betting has this as a two horse race between The Dominator and Euroman. The Dominator hasn't been seen over fences since 2018 when he won on his chase debut before falling when in front at 2 out in the Australian Steeplechase. Hard to know where he would have finished, but he would have gone close as he was still going well at the time. He finished in front of Ablaze in a trial at the beginning of last month and has run OK in a couple of flat races since.
Euroman has yet to run over fences but was a fair enough 3rd over hurdles in the Woodsman and Northern Voyage race last time. He's a fair enough hurdler, but for me he will have to show a bit more to beat The Dominator and I make that one the main bet.
I am also going to have a small bet e/w on Bold Bandit who started life finishing 2nd in an Irish point at Dromahane. He was sold to Australia after that and won a flat race on his first start. He has yet to win over fences or hurdles, but he ran well enough last month over fences on his first start since September 2018. He should improve on the back of that and could easily play a part in this.
The Dominator @ 6/4 with Betfred
Bold Bandit @ 9/1 with Betfred
Race 5 (5.10am)
The big race on the card should go to either Zed Em or Ablaze. Zed Em has won 13 times over jumps including plenty of the big Australian jump races. He even managed to win a flat race earlier this month. That was a BM58 though and Ablaze has won a BM84 at Moonee Valley in February which landed a hat-trick on the level for him. He was an impressive winner of the JJ Hurdle in August and bolted up on his chase debut last month. Zed Em has been there and got the t-shirt whereas Ablaze is the progressive horse over fences. Ablaze is the most likely winner for me although he is long odds on so it is a race to watch and not bet in for me.
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Darran got a reaction from blueboy199 in Racing Chat - Saturday April 18th
A cracking morning last Saturday getting 4 winners out of the 8 races
I tipped in. Tomorrow's meeting at Randwick is the last day of the Sydney Autumn Carnival and there are a couple of G1 races on the card. I have selections in 6 of the races up in Sydney, a couple of selections at Caulfield in Melbourne and also 1 at Morphettville in Adelaide.
A quick note first and something I probably should have highlighted before now, but with Bet365 if you want to back something with them you have to back it to win and place as that is how the markets work in Australia and the 365 market is an Australian market. Sometimes they will be top price on something I have put up e/w but for ease here I have just used bookies that offer normal e/w terms.
Also Randwick will be on Sky Sports Racing, but they don't have the rights for Caulfield or Morphettville, but that is available to view at Racing.com which is I highly recommend signing up to.
Randwick R3 (4.10am) and Caulfield R3 (4.25am)
I am starting with two odds on shots who I am putting in a double and it just so happens they run within 15 minutes of each other. I put up Rubisaki a couple of weeks ago when she took out the last race on the card and she was very impressive. That G3 win meant she has now won 7 of her 9 starts. She steps back up to 1400m here, but she won a G2 at Flemington over that trip on her penultimate start and she is 3/3 over this trip. The quicker ground shouldn't be an issue either as she won on a Good 3 in November. If she carries on with the form she has shown so far she will be hard to beat.
At Caulfield in their 3rd race it is pretty hard to see Pippie getting beaten. She is a G1 winner two starts back over 1100m here and then finished a good 4th in the William Reid at Moonee Valley last month. Due to the conditions of the race she is very well weighted here compared to her rivals who on the whole can't get anywhere near the form she is capable. At recent Caulfield meetings it has paid to be prominent and although she will have to get across from stall 11 she is likely to make the running. If she runs up to the G1 form she has shown in her last two starts then she will be very hard to beat.
Rubisaki and Pippie double @ 9/4 with Betfred & William Hill
Randwick R4 (4.45am)
Not surprisingly the ATC Derby winner from 2 weeks ago Quick Thinker is the favourite for this G3 contest. I'd imagine in normal circumstances he wouldn't be running in this because going from a G1 over 2400m to a G3 to 2000m wold be a strange one, but he's from New Zealand and with no racing there at the moment they may as well try and win some more prize money. That was a tough race though in testing ground and coming back in trip on quicker ground has to be a concern so I think he is worth taking on.
Pancho is the first one that appeals. He made a a good return in a G2 at Rosehill in February when 4th over 1400m. He then only beat one home in the Randwick Guineas and was 6th in the Rosehill Guineas last time. He was forced very wide on the home turn that day though and I don't think it was that bad an effort. Better ground should help and on previous form he has looked capable of being good enough to win this.
This will be the quickest ground that Entente will have run on, but he has looked progressive and if handling it could go close. Kinane could be anything having looked good in a maiden at Wyong last time. They both have claims, but I am going to also back Chuck A Luck. He has good form in New Zealand and won at Mornington two starts back on his 2nd start in Australia. He was 2nd in a handicap at Caulfield 2 weeks but finished his race off really to finish 2nd where he had the best last 400m and 200m of the day. That suggests he wants stepping up in trip and this is his first try over 2000m. Those two look a bit of e/w value against a favourite who looks a bit vulnerable.
Pancho e/w @ 11/1 with everyone
Chuck A Luck e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill, Betfred & BetVictor
Randwick R5 (5.20am)
I am going to take the favourite on in this race as well which is the first G1 of the day. King's Legacy certainly looked good a couple of weeks ago when winning the Sires and he was strong to the line there so the extra 200m shouldn't be an issue. That was on a Heavy 8 although he has won on a Good 3 so the ground shouldn't be an issue. He is the right favourite, but I am going to try and take him on.
Ole Kirk was 4th behind King's Legacy last time on just his 3rd start. I think he was a bit unlucky as he didn't get the clearest of runs when trying to make his effort. He did hang in a little which is a slight concern, but I do think he was on the worst ground which wouldn't have helped. It was a Good 4 when he won on his debut at Flemington in February and a return to a quicker surface could well help reverse the from.
Untamed was a big drifter last week when I tipped him up, but got up in the nick of time to win. That run suggests he needs further than 1600m in a better race so I am going to pass him over. Instead I will also back the horse that beat him two starts back Holyfield. That was a G3 at Rosehill 3 weeks ago over 1400m. Tom Marquand was on top that day as he is here and I think he can improve again for the step up in trip.
Ole Kirk @ 3/1 with everyone
Holyfield @ 13/2 with everyone
Randwick R6 (6.00m)
I put up Shared Ambition for the Doncaster a couple of weeks ago as I thought he might get away with the 1600m trip even though he looks a possible Melbourne Cup contender. I was a bit disappointed with his performance though as he came home in 14th. Yes he did it the rail about 600m out, but even so I expected better. Yes he is down in grade and up in trip, but I thought he looked short enough in the betting despite the fact I am a big fan of the horse.
I am taking two against him. First of all I like Oceanex who could give Tom Marquand another winner before he returns home to the UK. She looks like she has been working up to this race having had a couple of starts over 1500m this prep. I thought she ran a nice race last time at Rosehill in a G2 and she landed a G2 at the Melbourne Cup Carnival back in November over 2000m. The ground that day should be the same as she will get on Saturday and I think she has a good chance of placing at least.
I put Danceteria up last time, but he got a bizarre ride in the Tancred as his jockey decided to make a huge move at the 1200m marker. Not surprisingly he ran out of steam and only beat one home. Ridden more sensibly he could be a player. I am though going to add another ex European trained runner in the shape of Norway. He won a G3 at Leopardstown on his last start for Aidan O'Brien and was 3rd in the Irish Derby last year. He only ran over 1m4f or further last season, but I don't think this trip is an issue. He made his Aussie debut in the Ranvet (won by Addeybb) at Rosehill and came last, but that was a very tough race to return in. Down in grade and into a handicap he looks well weighted on the pick of his form for O'Brien. He might need another run, but he's a big price and is worth taking a chance on.
Oceanex @ 7/1 e/w with Betfred (4 places)
Norway @ 20/1 e/w with Betfred (4 places)
Randwick R7 (6.40am)
The other G1 race on the card is the All Aged Stakes over 1400m and I think last year's winner Pierata can follow up this year on what is to be his last start before retirement. He has run two very good races in The Galaxy and the T J Smith. He had to come wide in the latter which didn't help as he was probably on the worst ground. He has a good record over this trip and he will be ready to peak here.
Santa Ana Lane was 2nd in the T J Smith and has won a G1 at this trip so has to be considered as well. He came from quite far back that day as well, but I do think he is better over 1200m. Dreamforce could be a big danger if he gets an easy lead out in front as he did in the George Ryder last time. Tom Marquand's mount Firece Impact wouldn't be out of this and Bivouac missed the kick in the T J Smith before finishing well so has to be considered as well.
They are the dangers, but I am going to add Tofane as a bet along with Pierata. She is another one to come from the T J Smith and she finished 5th. She had the fastest last 200m in that race and it suggests she wants 1400m now, a trip she is trying for the first time. Prior to that she was 3rd in The Galaxy and she looks in peak form right now. The quicker ground won't be an issue either.
Pierata @ 7/2 with William Hill
Tofane e/w @ 9/1 with Betfred and Betway (4 places with both)
Randwick R8 (7.20am)
Godolphin have got a really strong hand in this G3 and I am going to take two of their's against the field. Trekking is the one who just misses out, but his 7th first up in the T J Smith was a cracking effort. I put up Kementari at Rosehill last time and he ran well on his first run for just over a year after he turned out to be a flop at stud. He is clearly going to improve for that run and his old form makes him a huge player here especially on better ground. Deprive has to be backed as well as he has an incredible strike-rate at Randwick. He is 6/7 here and 3/3 over course and distance. He has hit the line well over 1000m and 1100 in G2 and G1 company on his 2 starts this prep and he is surely going to go close up to 1200m. The one loss he had here was on his 1st start this prep when 5th to Nature Strip.
Kementari @ 100/30 with William Hill and Betfred
Deprive @ 3/1 with William Hill and Betfred
Caulfield R2 (3.50am)
I put Twitchy Frank up last time as pretty much an e/w bet to nothing as she rarely runs a bad race and she duly finished 3rd at Bendigo. It was another top effort and she won this particular race last year. This race has the same conditions as the Pippie race and Twitchy Frank has even more in hand on ratings than Pippie does. She is rated 94 with the next highest in the race the main danger Clarice Cliffs rated 81. Clarice Cliffs was 2nd in that Bendigo race but she was getting 3kg that day and only gets 2kg in this contest so Twitchy Frank should reverse the form. She is likely to either make the running or be handy which is ideal given how the track has been riding of late and I think she can get a deserved victory here after some cracking efforts in defeat.
Twitchy Frank @ 17/10 with Bet365
Morphettville R8 (7.51am)
A G3 contest with a big field that looks pretty competitive. Not one to go mad on, but I do want to play Selica. She ran well at Moonee Valley last month in a G3 when finishing 4th and a couple of weeks later she ran over course and distance in the Adelaide Guineas. I have watched the video and she was never able to get a run until the race was basically over and not surprisingly her jockey wasn't hard on her when she did finally get some clear air.So the whole home straight she was hard on the bridle. It is hard to say where she would have finished, but she would have gone close in my view. Back against her own sex and we know she has some talent based on her previous form I am happy to play. Let's just hope she gets a clear run this time.
Selica e/w @ 9/1 with Betfred (4 places)
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Darran got a reaction from vikki37 in Racing Chat - Saturday April 11th
Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick on Saturday morning sees more top class action and the two William Haggas trained runners are back in action as well. Tom Marquand rides both of them and he has a pretty good book of rides throughout the card as well.
Race 1 (2.35am)
A Listed 2yo race to open the card and the one I like is Untamed. He won on his debut in January and then a couple of weeks ago at Rosehill he finished 2nd in a G3 when backed at big odds. The front 2 pulled over 3L clear of the rest there so it was a good performance. He goes up in trip another 200m which looks like it will suit and there should be plenty more to come. Postcode is a bit more exposed having 5 starts and the 3 of the first 4 starts came in Group races where he ran well. He didn't run in a maiden until last week where he finally broke his maiden tag at Hawksbury. He looks the main danger along with Tom Marquand's mount Azaly. He has just had the 1 start in Victoria at Kilmore where he was 3rd over 1100m. He looked like he needed further and he clocked the 4th fastest last 200m of the day. He has since finished 2nd in a trail and he should run well.
Untamed @ 6/4 with everyone bar Bet365
Race 2 (3.10am)
Granted Indy Car's win last time was only in a BM70 and he is into Listed company here, but it was an impressive performance. He didn't get a good break from the stalls that day and got crowded as well. He was about 15L behind the leader as they turned for home and then he flew home in the last 250m to just get up in time. You don't win like that unless you have a fair bit of class and it certainly looked like a performance that merited going back up in class. Tom Marquand rides and he looks to have a solid e/w chance back up in trip. Yao Dash is likely to be better than he showed last time when he came back with a couple of cuts. Hilo made a winning return when winning here last month in a BM70 before finishing 3rd at Rosehill in a Listed Race. That was over 1200m and he looks like he needs the extra 200m here. Spend is another one to consider who ran a really good race in the Bendigo Guineas a couple of weeks ago when 4th.
Indy Car @ 6/1 e/w with Betfred and William Hill
Race 3 (3.45am)
This race is the Provincial Championships Final which gives those running and trained outside of Sydney a chance of a big pot on a big day. There are two I like here. First is another Tom Marquand ridden horse in the shape of Animate. He has won 4 of his 6 starts including his last 3 as he has gone up through the grades. The last of those wins came in a qualifier for this at Newcastle and it was a really impressive performance as he sprinted away late on to beat Oxford Tycoon who re-opposes.
The other one I like is Asharani who also won at Newcastle last time. He came from a long way back and then battled late on to win. That was over 1200m and he looks like the step up to 1400m will be ideal and he has already won over course and distance in December. He broke the track record at Newcastle and is sure to be flying home late.
They are the two bets, but Electric Girl is another with calimes have won 4 of her 7 starts including her last 3. she won a qulaifier at Kembla Grange where she broke the 24 year old track record.
Animate @ 9/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power
Asharani @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power
Race 4 (4.20am)
A Group 2 for 2yo fillies and although we have some promising once race types who could be anything I am going to stick with the proven Group 1 form of Away Game. She was 2nd in the Golden Slipper 3 weeks ago which came on the back of finishing 4th in the Blue Diamond at Caulfield. 4 starts back she won the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast and for me she has the best form in the race. The slight concern is if she runs flat after a long prep, but if she runs up to form then she wins this.
Away Game @ 9/4 with William Hill and BetVictor
Race 5 (4.55am)
I saw an interview with James McDonald earlier in the week and he was very bullish about the chances of Cosmic Force. You do have to forgive his run in The Galaxy last time as he only beat one home when a well backed favourite. He wasn't given the best of rides and he got hampered so his jockey wasn't hard on him after that. Glen Boss was on that day and McDonald returns here and he thinks Cosmic Force is a G1 horse. He was 2nd before that and recorded the fastest final 200m of the day on that occasion. I certainly think he is worth giving another chance to.
I am gong to back Dawn Passage e/w as well as he caught the eye at Rosehill in a Listed Race last month. That was his first run of the prep and he didn't get a great deal of luck in running in the home straight. He didn't get out until about 150m to go and then he finished strongly to go down by a Neck behind California Zimbol who re-opposes.I certainly think he can reverse that form and he can go close.
Cosmic Force @ 5/2 with BetVictor
Dawn Passage e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor
Race 6 (5.30am)
The Australian Oaks looks a 3 horse race between Probabeel, Shout The Bar and Colette who won last week. I don't have a strong view on which one will come out on top so will not be having a bet here.
Race 7 (6.15am)
This is the 155th running of the Sydney Cup and it was first won by a British trained winner in 2017 when Polarisation won for Charlie Appleby. This came after the first race had to be voided due to a stricken horse and jockey. Hopefully we can avoid such drama this year, but it could see another British trained with Young Rascal a hot favourite. There was plenty to like in his victory in the Manion Cup 3 weeks ago when he got the better of a battle with Mugatoo. You would imagine he would come on for that although he is going half a mile further than he has ever gone before which is a slight concern. He can win for sure, but I don't think there is much juice in his price.
I am instead going to back last year's Ebor winner Mustajeer instead. I put him up e/w in the Tancred Stakes a couple of weeks ago and he finished off the race well to just get up for 2nd behind Verry Elleegant. That was a really good Group 1 performance over a trip which is short of his best. I know that he disappointed in the Melbourne Cup, but clearly the Ebor win was tip class form and he ran with great promise in the Caulfield Cup when 6th. This prep he has been working his way up to running with this and he has been in superb form. I think he has a huge chance in this and for me there just shouldn't be such a big price difference between him and Young Rascal. I rarely do something like this, but William Hill are going the 1st 4 at 1/5 odds and I think at 4/1 he has to be backed e/w as I can't see him out of the 4. You can get 4/1 the 1st 3 at 1/4 odds as well if you want to play him that way.
Raheen House was sent off favourite for last year's Ebor and he was a good winner last week of the Chairman Stakes which makes him a player. I have to mention my old favourite Gallic Chieftain who was 4th in that contest. I though it was a good run from a log way back and he has a chance of the first 4 at a double figure price, but it is hard to see him being good enough to win this.
Mustajeer e/w @ 4/1 with William Hill (4 places)
Race 8 (6.55am)
The big race of the morning is the Queen Elizabeth which has been won by Winx for the last 3 years and was her final ever start last year. Obviously there is nothing of her class in it this year, but it is still a fascinating contest headed by the Japanese raider Danon Premium. Just over a year ago he beat Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux and it was clear from her and the Caulfield Cup winner that the Japanese horses are a strong bunch at the moment. He was last seen finishing 2nd over a mile in a G1 in November and he clearly has a top chance. The concern is the wet track and also the fact he is coming off a break although having said that he was coming off a break when beating Lys Gracieux.
I am going to favour the British trained Addeybb though. I put him up in the Renvet 3 weeks ago and he battled really well to see off Verry Elleegant who re-opposes here and franked the form the week after when winning the Tancred. Addeybb should come on for that run and that race turned into a sprint which wouldn't have been ideal. This should be run at a stronger gallop. His 2nd to Magical in the Champion Stakes is top class form and I think he can land a 2nd G1 here.
Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare goes here and made a really good return in the Australian Cup, but surely he isn't going to be sharp enough to win this over 2000m. Verry Elleegant herself is also better over further in my view. Master Of Wine is interesting as he has gone through the grades winning his last 4 starts. This is his first run at this level, but he could be up to it. Melody Belle ran well to finish 4th in the Doncaster Mile last week and was 2nd to Magic Wand in the Mackinnion in the Spring at Flemington. She wouldn't be without a chance either.
Addeybb @ 17/5 with Bet365
Race 9 (7.35am)
A couple of interesting stats for this race that I have found. The first is that no winner has come off a last-start finish worse then 4th since 2009. The 2nd is even more eye-catching as no horse over 5 has won the race in its 48-year history. That does bring the favourite Funstar into play and she didn't look like she saw out the 2000m trip a couple of weeks ago when 4th in the Vinery. She is a G1 winner at this trip and she could easily bounce back. I am going to take a couple e/w against her though.
Positive Peace comes into this in flying form having won her last five starts all this prep. She started off in a BM70 went through the handicap grades and ended up winning a G2 at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She clearly needs to step up again now into G1 company, but she could easily do that given what she has done so far this year.
3rd behind Positive Peace was Amangiri and she was making her first start of the prep that day. She is likely to try and make all and she battled on well last time. She should be stronger here and she is 3/4 over 1600m. She looks a big player to me.
Last week's Doncaster Mile Nettoyer goes again here after being fed pizza and drinking champagne after her win last week! She has a chance her again although on the stats she is too old.
Positive Peace e/w @ 8/1 with Betfred (4 places)
Amangiri e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred (4 places)
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Darran got a reaction from vikki37 in Racing Chat - Saturday April 11th
Always nice to wake up to a profit. 4 out of 8 winners and a very impressive performance from addeybb
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Darran got a reaction from BBBC in Racing Chat - Saturday April 11th
Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick on Saturday morning sees more top class action and the two William Haggas trained runners are back in action as well. Tom Marquand rides both of them and he has a pretty good book of rides throughout the card as well.
Race 1 (2.35am)
A Listed 2yo race to open the card and the one I like is Untamed. He won on his debut in January and then a couple of weeks ago at Rosehill he finished 2nd in a G3 when backed at big odds. The front 2 pulled over 3L clear of the rest there so it was a good performance. He goes up in trip another 200m which looks like it will suit and there should be plenty more to come. Postcode is a bit more exposed having 5 starts and the 3 of the first 4 starts came in Group races where he ran well. He didn't run in a maiden until last week where he finally broke his maiden tag at Hawksbury. He looks the main danger along with Tom Marquand's mount Azaly. He has just had the 1 start in Victoria at Kilmore where he was 3rd over 1100m. He looked like he needed further and he clocked the 4th fastest last 200m of the day. He has since finished 2nd in a trail and he should run well.
Untamed @ 6/4 with everyone bar Bet365
Race 2 (3.10am)
Granted Indy Car's win last time was only in a BM70 and he is into Listed company here, but it was an impressive performance. He didn't get a good break from the stalls that day and got crowded as well. He was about 15L behind the leader as they turned for home and then he flew home in the last 250m to just get up in time. You don't win like that unless you have a fair bit of class and it certainly looked like a performance that merited going back up in class. Tom Marquand rides and he looks to have a solid e/w chance back up in trip. Yao Dash is likely to be better than he showed last time when he came back with a couple of cuts. Hilo made a winning return when winning here last month in a BM70 before finishing 3rd at Rosehill in a Listed Race. That was over 1200m and he looks like he needs the extra 200m here. Spend is another one to consider who ran a really good race in the Bendigo Guineas a couple of weeks ago when 4th.
Indy Car @ 6/1 e/w with Betfred and William Hill
Race 3 (3.45am)
This race is the Provincial Championships Final which gives those running and trained outside of Sydney a chance of a big pot on a big day. There are two I like here. First is another Tom Marquand ridden horse in the shape of Animate. He has won 4 of his 6 starts including his last 3 as he has gone up through the grades. The last of those wins came in a qualifier for this at Newcastle and it was a really impressive performance as he sprinted away late on to beat Oxford Tycoon who re-opposes.
The other one I like is Asharani who also won at Newcastle last time. He came from a long way back and then battled late on to win. That was over 1200m and he looks like the step up to 1400m will be ideal and he has already won over course and distance in December. He broke the track record at Newcastle and is sure to be flying home late.
They are the two bets, but Electric Girl is another with calimes have won 4 of her 7 starts including her last 3. she won a qulaifier at Kembla Grange where she broke the 24 year old track record.
Animate @ 9/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power
Asharani @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power
Race 4 (4.20am)
A Group 2 for 2yo fillies and although we have some promising once race types who could be anything I am going to stick with the proven Group 1 form of Away Game. She was 2nd in the Golden Slipper 3 weeks ago which came on the back of finishing 4th in the Blue Diamond at Caulfield. 4 starts back she won the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast and for me she has the best form in the race. The slight concern is if she runs flat after a long prep, but if she runs up to form then she wins this.
Away Game @ 9/4 with William Hill and BetVictor
Race 5 (4.55am)
I saw an interview with James McDonald earlier in the week and he was very bullish about the chances of Cosmic Force. You do have to forgive his run in The Galaxy last time as he only beat one home when a well backed favourite. He wasn't given the best of rides and he got hampered so his jockey wasn't hard on him after that. Glen Boss was on that day and McDonald returns here and he thinks Cosmic Force is a G1 horse. He was 2nd before that and recorded the fastest final 200m of the day on that occasion. I certainly think he is worth giving another chance to.
I am gong to back Dawn Passage e/w as well as he caught the eye at Rosehill in a Listed Race last month. That was his first run of the prep and he didn't get a great deal of luck in running in the home straight. He didn't get out until about 150m to go and then he finished strongly to go down by a Neck behind California Zimbol who re-opposes.I certainly think he can reverse that form and he can go close.
Cosmic Force @ 5/2 with BetVictor
Dawn Passage e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor
Race 6 (5.30am)
The Australian Oaks looks a 3 horse race between Probabeel, Shout The Bar and Colette who won last week. I don't have a strong view on which one will come out on top so will not be having a bet here.
Race 7 (6.15am)
This is the 155th running of the Sydney Cup and it was first won by a British trained winner in 2017 when Polarisation won for Charlie Appleby. This came after the first race had to be voided due to a stricken horse and jockey. Hopefully we can avoid such drama this year, but it could see another British trained with Young Rascal a hot favourite. There was plenty to like in his victory in the Manion Cup 3 weeks ago when he got the better of a battle with Mugatoo. You would imagine he would come on for that although he is going half a mile further than he has ever gone before which is a slight concern. He can win for sure, but I don't think there is much juice in his price.
I am instead going to back last year's Ebor winner Mustajeer instead. I put him up e/w in the Tancred Stakes a couple of weeks ago and he finished off the race well to just get up for 2nd behind Verry Elleegant. That was a really good Group 1 performance over a trip which is short of his best. I know that he disappointed in the Melbourne Cup, but clearly the Ebor win was tip class form and he ran with great promise in the Caulfield Cup when 6th. This prep he has been working his way up to running with this and he has been in superb form. I think he has a huge chance in this and for me there just shouldn't be such a big price difference between him and Young Rascal. I rarely do something like this, but William Hill are going the 1st 4 at 1/5 odds and I think at 4/1 he has to be backed e/w as I can't see him out of the 4. You can get 4/1 the 1st 3 at 1/4 odds as well if you want to play him that way.
Raheen House was sent off favourite for last year's Ebor and he was a good winner last week of the Chairman Stakes which makes him a player. I have to mention my old favourite Gallic Chieftain who was 4th in that contest. I though it was a good run from a log way back and he has a chance of the first 4 at a double figure price, but it is hard to see him being good enough to win this.
Mustajeer e/w @ 4/1 with William Hill (4 places)
Race 8 (6.55am)
The big race of the morning is the Queen Elizabeth which has been won by Winx for the last 3 years and was her final ever start last year. Obviously there is nothing of her class in it this year, but it is still a fascinating contest headed by the Japanese raider Danon Premium. Just over a year ago he beat Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux and it was clear from her and the Caulfield Cup winner that the Japanese horses are a strong bunch at the moment. He was last seen finishing 2nd over a mile in a G1 in November and he clearly has a top chance. The concern is the wet track and also the fact he is coming off a break although having said that he was coming off a break when beating Lys Gracieux.
I am going to favour the British trained Addeybb though. I put him up in the Renvet 3 weeks ago and he battled really well to see off Verry Elleegant who re-opposes here and franked the form the week after when winning the Tancred. Addeybb should come on for that run and that race turned into a sprint which wouldn't have been ideal. This should be run at a stronger gallop. His 2nd to Magical in the Champion Stakes is top class form and I think he can land a 2nd G1 here.
Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare goes here and made a really good return in the Australian Cup, but surely he isn't going to be sharp enough to win this over 2000m. Verry Elleegant herself is also better over further in my view. Master Of Wine is interesting as he has gone through the grades winning his last 4 starts. This is his first run at this level, but he could be up to it. Melody Belle ran well to finish 4th in the Doncaster Mile last week and was 2nd to Magic Wand in the Mackinnion in the Spring at Flemington. She wouldn't be without a chance either.
Addeybb @ 17/5 with Bet365
Race 9 (7.35am)
A couple of interesting stats for this race that I have found. The first is that no winner has come off a last-start finish worse then 4th since 2009. The 2nd is even more eye-catching as no horse over 5 has won the race in its 48-year history. That does bring the favourite Funstar into play and she didn't look like she saw out the 2000m trip a couple of weeks ago when 4th in the Vinery. She is a G1 winner at this trip and she could easily bounce back. I am going to take a couple e/w against her though.
Positive Peace comes into this in flying form having won her last five starts all this prep. She started off in a BM70 went through the handicap grades and ended up winning a G2 at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She clearly needs to step up again now into G1 company, but she could easily do that given what she has done so far this year.
3rd behind Positive Peace was Amangiri and she was making her first start of the prep that day. She is likely to try and make all and she battled on well last time. She should be stronger here and she is 3/4 over 1600m. She looks a big player to me.
Last week's Doncaster Mile Nettoyer goes again here after being fed pizza and drinking champagne after her win last week! She has a chance her again although on the stats she is too old.
Positive Peace e/w @ 8/1 with Betfred (4 places)
Amangiri e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred (4 places)
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Darran got a reaction from blueboy199 in Racing Chat - Saturday April 11th
Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick on Saturday morning sees more top class action and the two William Haggas trained runners are back in action as well. Tom Marquand rides both of them and he has a pretty good book of rides throughout the card as well.
Race 1 (2.35am)
A Listed 2yo race to open the card and the one I like is Untamed. He won on his debut in January and then a couple of weeks ago at Rosehill he finished 2nd in a G3 when backed at big odds. The front 2 pulled over 3L clear of the rest there so it was a good performance. He goes up in trip another 200m which looks like it will suit and there should be plenty more to come. Postcode is a bit more exposed having 5 starts and the 3 of the first 4 starts came in Group races where he ran well. He didn't run in a maiden until last week where he finally broke his maiden tag at Hawksbury. He looks the main danger along with Tom Marquand's mount Azaly. He has just had the 1 start in Victoria at Kilmore where he was 3rd over 1100m. He looked like he needed further and he clocked the 4th fastest last 200m of the day. He has since finished 2nd in a trail and he should run well.
Untamed @ 6/4 with everyone bar Bet365
Race 2 (3.10am)
Granted Indy Car's win last time was only in a BM70 and he is into Listed company here, but it was an impressive performance. He didn't get a good break from the stalls that day and got crowded as well. He was about 15L behind the leader as they turned for home and then he flew home in the last 250m to just get up in time. You don't win like that unless you have a fair bit of class and it certainly looked like a performance that merited going back up in class. Tom Marquand rides and he looks to have a solid e/w chance back up in trip. Yao Dash is likely to be better than he showed last time when he came back with a couple of cuts. Hilo made a winning return when winning here last month in a BM70 before finishing 3rd at Rosehill in a Listed Race. That was over 1200m and he looks like he needs the extra 200m here. Spend is another one to consider who ran a really good race in the Bendigo Guineas a couple of weeks ago when 4th.
Indy Car @ 6/1 e/w with Betfred and William Hill
Race 3 (3.45am)
This race is the Provincial Championships Final which gives those running and trained outside of Sydney a chance of a big pot on a big day. There are two I like here. First is another Tom Marquand ridden horse in the shape of Animate. He has won 4 of his 6 starts including his last 3 as he has gone up through the grades. The last of those wins came in a qualifier for this at Newcastle and it was a really impressive performance as he sprinted away late on to beat Oxford Tycoon who re-opposes.
The other one I like is Asharani who also won at Newcastle last time. He came from a long way back and then battled late on to win. That was over 1200m and he looks like the step up to 1400m will be ideal and he has already won over course and distance in December. He broke the track record at Newcastle and is sure to be flying home late.
They are the two bets, but Electric Girl is another with calimes have won 4 of her 7 starts including her last 3. she won a qulaifier at Kembla Grange where she broke the 24 year old track record.
Animate @ 9/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power
Asharani @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power
Race 4 (4.20am)
A Group 2 for 2yo fillies and although we have some promising once race types who could be anything I am going to stick with the proven Group 1 form of Away Game. She was 2nd in the Golden Slipper 3 weeks ago which came on the back of finishing 4th in the Blue Diamond at Caulfield. 4 starts back she won the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast and for me she has the best form in the race. The slight concern is if she runs flat after a long prep, but if she runs up to form then she wins this.
Away Game @ 9/4 with William Hill and BetVictor
Race 5 (4.55am)
I saw an interview with James McDonald earlier in the week and he was very bullish about the chances of Cosmic Force. You do have to forgive his run in The Galaxy last time as he only beat one home when a well backed favourite. He wasn't given the best of rides and he got hampered so his jockey wasn't hard on him after that. Glen Boss was on that day and McDonald returns here and he thinks Cosmic Force is a G1 horse. He was 2nd before that and recorded the fastest final 200m of the day on that occasion. I certainly think he is worth giving another chance to.
I am gong to back Dawn Passage e/w as well as he caught the eye at Rosehill in a Listed Race last month. That was his first run of the prep and he didn't get a great deal of luck in running in the home straight. He didn't get out until about 150m to go and then he finished strongly to go down by a Neck behind California Zimbol who re-opposes.I certainly think he can reverse that form and he can go close.
Cosmic Force @ 5/2 with BetVictor
Dawn Passage e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor
Race 6 (5.30am)
The Australian Oaks looks a 3 horse race between Probabeel, Shout The Bar and Colette who won last week. I don't have a strong view on which one will come out on top so will not be having a bet here.
Race 7 (6.15am)
This is the 155th running of the Sydney Cup and it was first won by a British trained winner in 2017 when Polarisation won for Charlie Appleby. This came after the first race had to be voided due to a stricken horse and jockey. Hopefully we can avoid such drama this year, but it could see another British trained with Young Rascal a hot favourite. There was plenty to like in his victory in the Manion Cup 3 weeks ago when he got the better of a battle with Mugatoo. You would imagine he would come on for that although he is going half a mile further than he has ever gone before which is a slight concern. He can win for sure, but I don't think there is much juice in his price.
I am instead going to back last year's Ebor winner Mustajeer instead. I put him up e/w in the Tancred Stakes a couple of weeks ago and he finished off the race well to just get up for 2nd behind Verry Elleegant. That was a really good Group 1 performance over a trip which is short of his best. I know that he disappointed in the Melbourne Cup, but clearly the Ebor win was tip class form and he ran with great promise in the Caulfield Cup when 6th. This prep he has been working his way up to running with this and he has been in superb form. I think he has a huge chance in this and for me there just shouldn't be such a big price difference between him and Young Rascal. I rarely do something like this, but William Hill are going the 1st 4 at 1/5 odds and I think at 4/1 he has to be backed e/w as I can't see him out of the 4. You can get 4/1 the 1st 3 at 1/4 odds as well if you want to play him that way.
Raheen House was sent off favourite for last year's Ebor and he was a good winner last week of the Chairman Stakes which makes him a player. I have to mention my old favourite Gallic Chieftain who was 4th in that contest. I though it was a good run from a log way back and he has a chance of the first 4 at a double figure price, but it is hard to see him being good enough to win this.
Mustajeer e/w @ 4/1 with William Hill (4 places)
Race 8 (6.55am)
The big race of the morning is the Queen Elizabeth which has been won by Winx for the last 3 years and was her final ever start last year. Obviously there is nothing of her class in it this year, but it is still a fascinating contest headed by the Japanese raider Danon Premium. Just over a year ago he beat Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux and it was clear from her and the Caulfield Cup winner that the Japanese horses are a strong bunch at the moment. He was last seen finishing 2nd over a mile in a G1 in November and he clearly has a top chance. The concern is the wet track and also the fact he is coming off a break although having said that he was coming off a break when beating Lys Gracieux.
I am going to favour the British trained Addeybb though. I put him up in the Renvet 3 weeks ago and he battled really well to see off Verry Elleegant who re-opposes here and franked the form the week after when winning the Tancred. Addeybb should come on for that run and that race turned into a sprint which wouldn't have been ideal. This should be run at a stronger gallop. His 2nd to Magical in the Champion Stakes is top class form and I think he can land a 2nd G1 here.
Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare goes here and made a really good return in the Australian Cup, but surely he isn't going to be sharp enough to win this over 2000m. Verry Elleegant herself is also better over further in my view. Master Of Wine is interesting as he has gone through the grades winning his last 4 starts. This is his first run at this level, but he could be up to it. Melody Belle ran well to finish 4th in the Doncaster Mile last week and was 2nd to Magic Wand in the Mackinnion in the Spring at Flemington. She wouldn't be without a chance either.
Addeybb @ 17/5 with Bet365
Race 9 (7.35am)
A couple of interesting stats for this race that I have found. The first is that no winner has come off a last-start finish worse then 4th since 2009. The 2nd is even more eye-catching as no horse over 5 has won the race in its 48-year history. That does bring the favourite Funstar into play and she didn't look like she saw out the 2000m trip a couple of weeks ago when 4th in the Vinery. She is a G1 winner at this trip and she could easily bounce back. I am going to take a couple e/w against her though.
Positive Peace comes into this in flying form having won her last five starts all this prep. She started off in a BM70 went through the handicap grades and ended up winning a G2 at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She clearly needs to step up again now into G1 company, but she could easily do that given what she has done so far this year.
3rd behind Positive Peace was Amangiri and she was making her first start of the prep that day. She is likely to try and make all and she battled on well last time. She should be stronger here and she is 3/4 over 1600m. She looks a big player to me.
Last week's Doncaster Mile Nettoyer goes again here after being fed pizza and drinking champagne after her win last week! She has a chance her again although on the stats she is too old.
Positive Peace e/w @ 8/1 with Betfred (4 places)
Amangiri e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred (4 places)
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Darran got a reaction from blueboy199 in Racing Chat - Thursday April 9th
An ex UK horse interests me at Pakenham (also known as Racing.com Park) tomorrow morning. Race 7 is due off at 11.30 and Daughter In Law is set to make her 2nd start in Oz. Rather unusually she is a sprinter going Down Under rather than a middle distance type which we are used to. She was trained in Ireland before having a couple of starts for Roger Charlton. She only has a maiden win to her name and only beat 1 home in the Queen Mary, but she ran with credit at both Glorious Goodwood and The Ebor meeting. She was next seen last month when a massive drifter in the betting at Pakenham. She got herself back in the field having been drawn on the outside and didn't get the clearest of runs in the straight. She stayed on in eye-catching style though to finish 5 behind the re-opposing Zimowy. Given the drift connections must have thought she would come on for the run and if she does from a run that was full of promise then she must surely go close. She has a better draw here and stepping up to 1200m looks like it will suit as well. She had a rating of 87 over here and this is only a BM64 Handicap (that means horses that are rated 64 carry 60kg, but horses rated higher can run and the top weight is rated 71 in this contest for example) so you would like to think she can turn out to be better than this level.
The main danger is Rapidora who has been running in higher classes than this and ran a good race at this level last time at Bendigo back in February. That race hasn't worked out too badly either with the winner winning a Listed Race and the 3rd winning next time out. The problem with here though is she only has a maiden win to here name in 13 starts and has finished 2nd 5 times. She has the form good enough to win this, but I think Daughter In Law can build on that first Australian run and has more progression in her.
Daughter In Law @ 7/2 with Betfred
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Darran got a reaction from Ryanpete in Racing Chat - Saturday April 4th
Nature Strip was dominate yet again and in my view is the best sprinter in the world
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Darran got a reaction from Tedthewolf in Virtual Grand National - ITV Saturday 5pm
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2020/apr/04/talking-horses-millions-will-tune-in-for-itv-virtual-grand-national-horse-racing?CMP=share_btn_tw
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Darran got a reaction from kroni in Racing Chat - Saturday April 4th
We should have been looking forward to Grand National Day, but instead the best action in the world comes from Randwick where it is Day 1 of The Championships (Day 2 is next Saturday). There is some top quality action on the card and I have selections in 6 races.
Race 1 (2.10)
This looks a two horse race and I think we can take a chance on the 2nd favourite here Damaged. He was green on his debut on Boxing Day when 2nd, but 10 days ago he returned at Warwick Farm and looked a very good horse as he clocked a quick time. If he comes on for that again then he looks the value in the race compared to the favourite Rulership.
Damaged @ 27/10 with Bet365
Race 5 (4.35)
A really competitive race as the betting suggests and a couple in Raheen House and Mirage Dancer who British punters will recognise. I am not putting either of them up though and instead going with Gallic Chieftain and Youngstar. I have followed Gallic Chieftain since November 2016 where on the final day of my trip to Australia I was watching Racing.com whilst my wife packed. This former French horse was having his 2nd start in Australia and he was one of the biggest eye-catchers I have ever seen. He duly won 2 of his next 3 starts and should have won the other as well. I thought he might turn out to be a Melbourne Cup horse, but he has never managed to get into the race. He has done well enough though and managed to win this race last year in really good style. That was his last win, but he was a bit unlucky the week after in the Sydney Cup and last prep was 2nd in a Group 1 over 2400m. He clearly thrives here, loves a bit of dig in the ground and is capable of running a big race again.
Youngstar was a horse I really fancied for the Melbourne Cup in 2018 and she ran well enough to finish 6th. I thought she would progress from that, but she hasn't really although I do think there is a sign she is capable of running well here. She ran a cracking race to finish 2nd to Shared Ambition here a month ago and ran OK in the G1 Ranvet behind Addeybb. She handles a wet track and stepping up to this trip at this level should suit.
Gallic Chieftain e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill & Betfred
Youngstar e/w @ 13/2 with William Hill & Betfred
Race 7 (5.55)
This is the Australian Derby and I am keen on Castlevecchio here. He was really impressive a couple of weeks ago when landing the Rosehill Guineas and he looked as if he would improve again for the step-up to this trip. He showed his class when a really good 2nd in the Cox Plate last year. Warning was behind him there and I am not sure he is in the same form as he was when winning the VRC Derby in the spring. I think Castlevecchio can uphold the form.
Castlevecchio @ 2/1 with Bet365
Race 8 (6.35)
This is a top class renewal of the T J Smith. Santa Ana Lane won this last year although I am not sure he is in as good form this time around. I think Bivouac is better than he was able to show at Moonee Valley last time when Loving Gaby was a good winner. He could well reverse the form around here as Loving Gaby does seem to love the Valley.
I have a love hate relationship with Nature Strip. Whenever I back him he losses and whenever I take him on he seems to win. Hopefully I can get him right here as when he is at his best I think he is the best sprinter in the world. The win in the Darley Sprint Classic at Flemington in November was one of the best sprinting performances I have seen in the last few years. 1st up he was disappointing at Flemington in November, but he bounced straight back to win here over 1000m last month beating Redzel by 3L. He was set to come to Royal Ascot and it is a shame he is unlikely to get a chance to do that now, but hopefully he can show his sprinting dominance here.
I am going to back Pierata e/w as well. He was only just beaten by Nature Strip in the Galaxy last year and on that form he is over priced. He was only 5th in this after that but then won a G1 over 1400m here later in the month. I thought he ran a nice race 1st up in the Galaxy last month when a good 5th off top weight. No doubt he will improve for that and he looks a big player.
Nature Strip @ 13/5 with Bet365
Pierata e/w @ 6/1 with Betfred (4 places)
Race 9 (7.15)
The Doncaster Mile is the feature on the card and it is wide open. I am going to have a small play on ex Irish horse Shared Ambition. He is now trained by Chris Waller and he has looked really progressive. He was especially over 2800m on Melbourne Cup day. He was beaten 1st up over this trip at Warwick Farm, but then as I mention above he won at Randwick last month. Now the concern is the drop back to 1600m, but Waller knows what he is doing and he gets in here off a light weight. With William Hill, Betfred and Betway all going 5 places I think at the very least he can get in the 5 and we know he will be doing his best work late.
Shard Ambition @ 8/1 with William Hill
Race 10 (7.50)
She is short, but Rubisaki should win the last race on the card. She has won 6 of her 8 races and has been placed in the other 2. So far this prep she has won at Warwick Farm and then was very good when winning a G2 at Flemington last month. The slight concern is the draw, but granted luck in running she should be too good for these and she is proven on a wet track.
Rubisaki @ Evs with everyone
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Darran got a reaction from Trotter in Virtual Grand National - ITV Saturday 5pm
Seen it confirmed that bookies will bet on it with all profits going to nhs charities
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Darran got a reaction from BillyHills in Virtual Grand National - ITV Saturday 5pm
Seen it confirmed that bookies will bet on it with all profits going to nhs charities
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Darran got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat-Sat 28th March
Thankfully Australian racing was able to continue after a scare earlier in the week and their looks to be a few betting opportunties on the main card at Rosehill plus the metro card in Victoria which this week is at Bendigo another country track after it was at Mornington last week.
Rosehill race 5 4.10am
Going to take two against the field. Villami was really good 1st up in a Listed contest and if she can buiuld on that performance than she has to be bang there off a light weight. She has form with Loving Gaby in the spring which obviously stacks up well. I mentioned Kementari last week when he was set to appear in The Galaxy. They took him out and have decided to aim him at this G3 instead. Could be a good move if he is anywhere near the form he showed before he went to stud and as I mentioned last week he trialled very well earlier in the month.
Villami @ 3/1 with William Hill
Kementari @ 5/1 with Bet365
Rosehill race 6 4.50am
The G1 Tancred Stakes features plenty of familiar names to UK and Irish punters and also those who were watching Rosehill last week as the front 3 in the betting all ran last week. Verry Elleegant is not surprisingly the favourite after her great run when being beaten by Addeybb, with Avilius back in 3rd. They are up to 2400m here, but I can't see the form being reversed. Hugh Bowman said he was happy with how Avilius performed, but he looked ordinary to me and he just doesn't seem the same horse as last year. Verry Elleegant won the ATC Oaks over this trip so that isn't a concern and she can win, but I am going to chance a couple at bigger odds.
Mustajeer was last year's Ebor winner and he was pretty poor in the Melbourne Cup after that. He is now in Australia full time and his two runs back from a spell have been good efforts as he won 1st up over 1900m and then finished 2nd to a very progressive horse last time out. Up to 2400m will be more suitable and the Ebor was essentially a G1 handicap in all but name. I think he can run a good race here. In the same colours I also like Danceteria at a big price. He was trained by David Menuisier over here and ran a really good race when 4th behind Enable in the Eclipse. After that he won a G1 at Munich before a trip to the Cox Plate which didn't go well. That can be ignored though and I think he is slowly coming to hand this prep. He only beat one home 1st up, but last time he travelled well before fading in the straight in testing ground. It won't be as soft here and with blinkers on for the first time I can see him running well given his European form is very strong.
Mustajeer @ 8/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfred (e/w)
Danceteria @ 25/1 with BetVictor and Betfred (e/w)
Rosehill Race 9 6.50am
Star of the Stars won a G3 over 1100m 1st up and should enjoy the step up in trip. He has a superb record at Rosehill where he has won 4 of his 5 starts and looks set to travel just behind the speed from his draw in 8.
Star of the Seas @ 100/30 with William Hill
Bendigo Race 1 1.15am
The slight concern is that Grand Promenade is having his 7th start this prep and that is fairly unusual in Australia, but his win at Caulfield over this trip after being trapped 3 wide with no cover for most of the race was really good. This looks a good race for him.
Grand Promenade @ 7/5 with Paddy Power
Bendigo Race 6 4.30am
Going to have 2 bets against the field in this. Twitchy Frank has been so consistent since his last win just under a year ago at Caulfield. He has mainly run in his native Tasmania since and gone close in some decent races. He should go well again here. Mirette has a touch of class about her although she was very disappointing 1st up in the Echuca Cup. She has run well against Princess Jenni a couple of times last year and that is strong form. She has a good 2nd up record so hopefully she can improve here.
Twitchy Frank @ 6/1 with Betfred (e/w)
Mirette @ 12/1 with Betfred (e/w)
Bendigo Race 8 5.50am
The big race of the day and I have to be with Princess Jenni. I tipped her up at Moonee Valley last week and on the face of it she was a bit ordinary, but she was not suited by the way the race was run and nothing was really finishing from the back on the card. This hopefully should be run to suit and she has a really good chance for me. I am also going to cover Debt Agent who set some great finishing sectionals 1st up at Flemington earlier in the month. He was a good horse in Singapore prior to coming over here and he looks capable of running a good race in this.
Princess Jenni @ 100/30 with Betfred
Debt Agent @ 15/2 with Betfred (e/w 4 places)
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Darran got a reaction from blueboy199 in Racing Chat-Sat 28th March
Thankfully Australian racing was able to continue after a scare earlier in the week and their looks to be a few betting opportunties on the main card at Rosehill plus the metro card in Victoria which this week is at Bendigo another country track after it was at Mornington last week.
Rosehill race 5 4.10am
Going to take two against the field. Villami was really good 1st up in a Listed contest and if she can buiuld on that performance than she has to be bang there off a light weight. She has form with Loving Gaby in the spring which obviously stacks up well. I mentioned Kementari last week when he was set to appear in The Galaxy. They took him out and have decided to aim him at this G3 instead. Could be a good move if he is anywhere near the form he showed before he went to stud and as I mentioned last week he trialled very well earlier in the month.
Villami @ 3/1 with William Hill
Kementari @ 5/1 with Bet365
Rosehill race 6 4.50am
The G1 Tancred Stakes features plenty of familiar names to UK and Irish punters and also those who were watching Rosehill last week as the front 3 in the betting all ran last week. Verry Elleegant is not surprisingly the favourite after her great run when being beaten by Addeybb, with Avilius back in 3rd. They are up to 2400m here, but I can't see the form being reversed. Hugh Bowman said he was happy with how Avilius performed, but he looked ordinary to me and he just doesn't seem the same horse as last year. Verry Elleegant won the ATC Oaks over this trip so that isn't a concern and she can win, but I am going to chance a couple at bigger odds.
Mustajeer was last year's Ebor winner and he was pretty poor in the Melbourne Cup after that. He is now in Australia full time and his two runs back from a spell have been good efforts as he won 1st up over 1900m and then finished 2nd to a very progressive horse last time out. Up to 2400m will be more suitable and the Ebor was essentially a G1 handicap in all but name. I think he can run a good race here. In the same colours I also like Danceteria at a big price. He was trained by David Menuisier over here and ran a really good race when 4th behind Enable in the Eclipse. After that he won a G1 at Munich before a trip to the Cox Plate which didn't go well. That can be ignored though and I think he is slowly coming to hand this prep. He only beat one home 1st up, but last time he travelled well before fading in the straight in testing ground. It won't be as soft here and with blinkers on for the first time I can see him running well given his European form is very strong.
Mustajeer @ 8/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfred (e/w)
Danceteria @ 25/1 with BetVictor and Betfred (e/w)
Rosehill Race 9 6.50am
Star of the Stars won a G3 over 1100m 1st up and should enjoy the step up in trip. He has a superb record at Rosehill where he has won 4 of his 5 starts and looks set to travel just behind the speed from his draw in 8.
Star of the Seas @ 100/30 with William Hill
Bendigo Race 1 1.15am
The slight concern is that Grand Promenade is having his 7th start this prep and that is fairly unusual in Australia, but his win at Caulfield over this trip after being trapped 3 wide with no cover for most of the race was really good. This looks a good race for him.
Grand Promenade @ 7/5 with Paddy Power
Bendigo Race 6 4.30am
Going to have 2 bets against the field in this. Twitchy Frank has been so consistent since his last win just under a year ago at Caulfield. He has mainly run in his native Tasmania since and gone close in some decent races. He should go well again here. Mirette has a touch of class about her although she was very disappointing 1st up in the Echuca Cup. She has run well against Princess Jenni a couple of times last year and that is strong form. She has a good 2nd up record so hopefully she can improve here.
Twitchy Frank @ 6/1 with Betfred (e/w)
Mirette @ 12/1 with Betfred (e/w)
Bendigo Race 8 5.50am
The big race of the day and I have to be with Princess Jenni. I tipped her up at Moonee Valley last week and on the face of it she was a bit ordinary, but she was not suited by the way the race was run and nothing was really finishing from the back on the card. This hopefully should be run to suit and she has a really good chance for me. I am also going to cover Debt Agent who set some great finishing sectionals 1st up at Flemington earlier in the month. He was a good horse in Singapore prior to coming over here and he looks capable of running a good race in this.
Princess Jenni @ 100/30 with Betfred
Debt Agent @ 15/2 with Betfred (e/w 4 places)
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Darran got a reaction from rugbycoach2 in Racing Chat - Sunday Mar 22nd
On The Sod looks a very promising horse based on that performance. Will be interesting where he goes next although the situation we are currently in will have a big say I would imagine. Looks a possible John Corbet cup winner though. Getzie ran a big race and looked like he would hit the frame at one stage. The other selection was a bit disappointing. Profit though which is the key. I think I’m right in saying the next hunter chase is the one at Fairyhouse over Easter should Ireland get that far and the meeting takes place.
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Darran got a reaction from Ryanpete in Racing Chat - Sunday Mar 22nd
Regular readers of my previews will know that I don't tip in Irish hunter chases that often. The main reason for that is the fact I don't usually have the time to add Irish hunter chases to my usual workload of Non-League Football and UK hunter chases. With both those two out of action at the moment it means I can actually spend a bit of time on the Irish scene and they have a hunter chase at Downpatrick on Sunday.
We have two horses at the top of the market Complete Sizing and On The Sod. I know the former has Jamie Codd on, but I don't really fancy him. It wasn't a strong open that he was 2nd in last time and the time before he fell in a hunter chase at Clonmel. That was in January and it was his first run since last May when he went off 8/13, but didn't seem to handle the good ground when he was well beaten by Rewritetherules. He also finished lame that day and his history shows that he clearly has had his issues over the years. He could come on for the run last time, but I think he needs to.
On The Sod is 3/3 and has Rob James on top who will be on top of the world after winning at Cheltenham last week. Had one run last season and then returned to beat Samurai Cracker by a short head in November. That is strong form as he has won a hunter chase since and run well in some good races including when falling at the last in the Naas race Billaway won in January. Last month he was an easy winner and he clocked a decent time. The odd comment after the race from his trainer suggested that he would only go for a hunter chase if it was at a left-handed venue. I find it odd because it was a right-handed track last time so I don't see it being an issue and he looks a very promising horse.
Heydour was rated 123 over Rules when trained in the UK and was 2nd a couple of times at Ludlow and Huntingdon. He won a maiden point last month, but that form wouldn't be good enough to win this. That was on heavy though and his good form in the UK was on decent ground. The trainer is using the horse to help give his 18yo son experience and he now can only run in hunter chases. On his UK form he'd have a chance, but that would suggest he wants good ground and that he got away with heavy ground last time as it was a much lower class.
Handy Headon has been supported and I can understand why. He was impressive when winning his maiden in January where his trainer said the next target was he hunt race at Punchestown point to point which he pushed Rewritetherules close in. Now Rewritetherules apparently wasn't at his best that day and he wasn't great at Cheltenham last week, but I still think it was a good run from Handy Headon. If Punchestown does happen then he will be aimed at the Bishopscourt Cup a race he fell in last year.
Holycross Lito showed some good form in points in 2017 winning 4 times. She then went under Rules but it never really worked out for her so she went back pointing and produced a superb performance to beat top pointer Longhouse Music (who also runs here) in October. She was disappointing on his next start which was in a Clonmel hunter chase in January, but given she has been off since my guess is she had an issue that day. She has to have a good chance if at her best.
Next in the betting is Longhouse Music and she has won 20 times in 36 starts in points. After the defeat to Holycross Lito she won a couple of weeks later, before being well beaten by Mighty Stowaway when only 4th. She had a break after that and returned a couple of weeks ago when winning easily at 1/2 although the horse just in front did fall at the last. The problem is her Rules form is pretty poor including in a couple of hunter chases in 2017 and 2018. With pointing being closed in Ireland she has been forced to run in a hunter chase and on her Rules form I have to rule her out.
Well Bill was a winner a couple of weeks ago where he reversed form with Like A Demon who had beaten him the time before. This race was named as his next race after that win, but he has hardly been a prolific winner in points and needs to find something for me.
The other one worth mentioning is Getzie who has more letters than numbers in his form, but he is clearly coming into form. 2 starts back he was very unlucky to slip on landing at 2 out and he had to be pulled up. He then duly bolted up by 12L to lose his maiden tag at the beginning of the month. Interestingly a hunter chase was mentioned as a possible aim after that win so connections clearly think he is up to running well. If he can continue on the progression then he can outrun his massive odds.
On The Sod has to be the main bet for me. He looks a like he could be pretty could and he might well turn out to be hard to beat. I'm not sure about Complete Sizing and Heydour probably wants better ground. Handy Headon has been backed and can't be ruled out although Punchestown (if it is on) is clearly the main aim. Longhouse Music's rules form puts me off, but Holycross Lito who has beaten her twice anyway looks a good e/w bet at the prices as she is better than she showed last time and it could be worth forgiving her that effort. Finally I am having a small e/w bet at Getzie at 66/1 as he is clearly coming to himself and looks over priced at huge odds.
On The Sod 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
Holycross Lito 0.75pts e/w @ 9/1 with everyone
Getzie 0.25pts e/w @ 66/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred