Racing Chat - Saturday April 18th

[BillyHills]

Early post as there is some top class action in Australia early doors.

Will look at US Racing tonight.

Group 1 racing at Randwick plus others;

 

Tips up for Randwick, Ascot and Caulfield
https://www.punterslounge.com/tips/free-horse-racing-tips

 

Best bets

425 Cf: Pippie
445 Rn: Quick Thinker
500 Cf Mr Quickie
920 As: Watch Me Dance

EW bet
520 Rn: Untamed 9/1

 

 

[LeMale]

0255 Randwick - Luff @18-1 ew william hill - p4

[Darran]

A cracking morning last Saturday getting 4 winners out of the 8 races 
I tipped in. Tomorrow's meeting at Randwick is the last day of the Sydney Autumn Carnival and there are a couple of G1 races on the card. I have selections in 6 of the races up in Sydney, a couple of selections at Caulfield in Melbourne and also 1 at Morphettville in Adelaide.

A quick note first and something I probably should have highlighted before now, but with Bet365 if you want to back something with them you have to back it to win and place as that is how the markets work in Australia and the 365 market is an Australian market. Sometimes they will be top price on something I have put up e/w but for ease here I have just used bookies that offer normal e/w terms.

Also Randwick will be on Sky Sports Racing, but they don't have the rights for Caulfield or Morphettville, but that is available to view at Racing.com which is I highly recommend signing up to.

Randwick R3 (4.10am) and Caulfield R3 (4.25am)

I am starting with two odds on shots who I am putting in a double and it just so happens they run within 15 minutes of each other. I put up Rubisaki a couple of weeks ago when she took out the last race on the card and she was very impressive. That G3 win meant she has now won 7 of her 9 starts. She steps back up to 1400m here, but she won a G2 at Flemington over that trip on her penultimate start and she is 3/3 over this trip. The quicker ground shouldn't be an issue either as she won on a Good 3 in November. If she carries on with the form she has shown so far she will be hard to beat.

At Caulfield in their 3rd race it is pretty hard to see Pippie getting beaten. She is a G1 winner two starts back over 1100m here and then finished a good 4th in the William Reid at Moonee Valley last month. Due to the conditions of the race she is very well weighted here compared to her rivals who on the whole can't get anywhere near the form she is capable. At recent Caulfield meetings it has paid to be prominent and although she will have to get across from stall 11 she is likely to make the running. If she runs up to the G1 form she has shown in her last two starts then she will be very hard to beat.

Rubisaki and Pippie double @ 9/4 with Betfred & William Hill

Randwick R4 (4.45am)

Not surprisingly the ATC Derby winner from 2 weeks ago Quick Thinker is the favourite for this G3 contest. I'd imagine in normal circumstances he wouldn't be running in this because going from a G1 over 2400m to a G3 to 2000m wold be a strange one, but he's from New Zealand and with no racing there at the moment they may as well try and win some more prize money. That was a tough race though in testing ground and coming back in trip on quicker ground has to be a concern so I think he is worth taking on.

Pancho is the first one that appeals. He made a a good return in a G2 at Rosehill in February when 4th over 1400m. He then only beat one home in the Randwick Guineas and was 6th in the Rosehill Guineas last time. He was forced very wide on the home turn that day though and I don't think it was that bad an effort. Better ground should help and on previous form he has looked capable of being good enough to win this.

This will be the quickest ground that Entente will have run on, but he has looked progressive and if handling it could go close. Kinane could be anything having looked good in a maiden at Wyong last time. They both have claims, but I am going to also back Chuck A Luck. He has good form in New Zealand and won at Mornington two starts back on his 2nd start in Australia. He was 2nd in a handicap at Caulfield 2 weeks but finished his race off really to finish 2nd where he had the best last 400m and 200m of the day. That suggests he wants stepping up in trip and this is his first try over 2000m. Those two look a bit of e/w value against a favourite who looks a bit vulnerable. 

Pancho e/w @ 11/1 with everyone

Chuck A Luck e/w @ 15/2 with William Hill, Betfred & BetVictor

Randwick R5 (5.20am)

I am going to take the favourite on in this race as well which is the first G1 of the day. King's Legacy certainly looked good a couple of weeks ago when winning the Sires and he was strong to the line there so the extra 200m shouldn't be an issue. That was on a Heavy 8 although he has won on a Good 3 so the ground shouldn't be an issue. He is the right favourite, but I am going to try and take him on.

Ole Kirk was 4th behind King's Legacy last time on just his 3rd start. I think he was a bit unlucky as he didn't get the clearest of runs when trying to make his effort. He did hang in a little which is a slight concern, but I do think he was on the worst ground which wouldn't have helped. It was a Good 4 when he won on his debut at Flemington in February and a return to a quicker surface could well help reverse the from.

Untamed was a big drifter last week when I tipped him up, but got up in the nick of time to win. That run suggests he needs further than 1600m in a better race so I am going to pass him over. Instead I will also back the horse that beat him two starts back Holyfield. That was a G3 at Rosehill 3 weeks ago over 1400m. Tom Marquand was on top that day as he is here and I think he can improve again for the step up in trip.

Ole Kirk @ 3/1 with everyone

Holyfield @ 13/2 with everyone

Randwick R6 (6.00m)

I put up Shared Ambition for the Doncaster a couple of weeks ago as I thought he might get away with the 1600m trip even though he looks a possible Melbourne Cup contender. I was a bit disappointed with his performance though as he came home in 14th. Yes he did it the rail about 600m out, but even so I expected better. Yes he is down in grade and up in trip, but I thought he looked short enough in the betting despite the fact I am a big fan of the horse.

I am taking two against him. First of all I like Oceanex who could give Tom Marquand another winner before he returns home to the UK. She looks like she has been working up to this race having had a couple of starts over 1500m this prep. I thought she ran a nice race last time at Rosehill in a G2 and she landed a G2 at the Melbourne Cup Carnival back in November over 2000m. The ground that day should be the same as she will get on Saturday and I think she has a good chance of placing at least.

I put Danceteria up last time, but he got a bizarre ride in the Tancred as his jockey decided to make a huge move at the 1200m marker. Not surprisingly he ran out of steam and only beat one home. Ridden more sensibly he could be a player. I am though going to add another ex European trained runner in the shape of Norway. He won a G3 at Leopardstown on his last start for Aidan O'Brien and was 3rd in the Irish Derby last year. He only ran over 1m4f or further last season, but I don't think this trip is an issue. He made his Aussie debut in the Ranvet (won by Addeybb) at Rosehill and came last, but that was a very tough race to return in. Down in grade and into a handicap he looks well weighted on the pick of his form for O'Brien. He might need another run, but he's a big price and is worth taking a chance on.

Oceanex @ 7/1 e/w with Betfred (4 places)

Norway @ 20/1 e/w with Betfred (4 places)

Randwick R7 (6.40am)

The other G1 race on the card is the All Aged Stakes over 1400m and I think last year's winner Pierata can follow up this year on what is to be his last start before retirement. He has run two very good races in The Galaxy and the T J Smith. He had to come wide in the latter which didn't help as he was probably on the worst ground. He has a good record over this trip and he will be ready to peak here.

Santa Ana Lane was 2nd in the T J Smith and has won a G1 at this trip so has to be considered as well. He came from quite far back that day as well, but I do think he is better over 1200m. Dreamforce could be a big danger if he gets an easy lead out in front as he did in the George Ryder last time. Tom Marquand's mount Firece Impact wouldn't be out of this and Bivouac missed the kick in the T J Smith before finishing well so has to be considered as well. 

They are the dangers, but I am going to add Tofane as a bet along with Pierata. She is another one to come from the T J Smith and she finished 5th. She had the fastest last 200m in that race and it suggests she wants 1400m now, a trip she is trying for the first time. Prior to that she was 3rd in The Galaxy and she looks in peak form right now. The quicker ground won't be an issue either.

Pierata @ 7/2 with William Hill

Tofane e/w @ 9/1 with Betfred and Betway (4 places with both)

Randwick R8 (7.20am)

Godolphin have got a really strong hand in this G3 and I am going to take two of their's against the field. Trekking is the one who just misses out, but his 7th first up in the T J Smith was a cracking effort. I put up Kementari at Rosehill last time and he ran well on his first run for just over a year after he turned out to be a flop at stud. He is clearly going to improve for that run and his old form makes him a huge player here especially on better ground. Deprive has to be backed as well as he has an incredible strike-rate at Randwick. He is 6/7 here and 3/3 over course and distance. He has hit the line well over 1000m and 1100 in G2 and G1 company on his 2 starts this prep and he is surely going to go close up to 1200m. The one loss he had here was on his 1st start this prep when 5th to Nature Strip.

Kementari @ 100/30 with William Hill and Betfred

Deprive @ 3/1 with William Hill and Betfred

Caulfield R2 (3.50am)

I put Twitchy Frank up last time as pretty much an e/w bet to nothing as she rarely runs a bad race and she duly finished 3rd at Bendigo. It was another top effort and she won this particular race last year. This race has the same conditions as the Pippie race and Twitchy Frank has even more in hand on ratings than Pippie does. She is rated 94 with the next highest in the race the main danger Clarice Cliffs rated 81. Clarice Cliffs was 2nd in that Bendigo race but she was getting 3kg that day and only gets 2kg in this contest so Twitchy Frank should reverse the form. She is likely to either make the running or be handy which is ideal given how the track has been riding of late and I think she can get a deserved victory here after some cracking efforts in defeat.

Twitchy Frank @ 17/10 with Bet365

Morphettville R8 (7.51am)

A G3 contest with a big field that looks pretty competitive. Not one to go mad on, but I do want to play Selica. She ran well at Moonee Valley last month in a G3 when finishing 4th and a couple of weeks later she ran over course and distance in the Adelaide Guineas. I have watched the video and she was never able to get a run until the race was basically over and not surprisingly her jockey wasn't hard on her when she did finally get some clear air.So the whole home straight she was hard on the bridle. It is hard to say where she would have finished, but she would have gone close in my view. Back against her own sex and we know she has some talent based on her previous form I am happy to play. Let's just hope she gets a clear run this time.

 Selica e/w @ 9/1 with Betfred (4 places)

[Nigwilliam]

Rem.

00.00.    Ragin.   4/1

00.54.    One Famous Grip.   10/1

01.48.    A Galaxy Guardian.    7/2

02.15.     Focus on me 123.     9/4

 

[roger2256]

Randwick 

04.10 Rubisaki  

Dont usually touch anything the bookies boost but surely sky have made an error boosting the price on this  to 8/11 has to be the nap of the day .

04.45 Kinane 11/2

06.40 Santa Ana Lane  4/1 

Edited April 17, 2020 by roger2256
Text

[Nigwilliam]

Tampa

7.28.    Ty Ran a Homer.     7/1.       Pl.

GP

9.21.     Harryhee.      20/1.     Unpl.

10.57.   Charmaines Mia.    14/1.         NR.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Nigwilliam
Result

[Swaning]

Gulfstream
9   TINY TURBO  
1   IMPRESSION GIVEN 
6   PALACE TWO STEP 
2   KRACHENWAGEN 
5   GRAY'S FABLE 
3   POPPY'S DESTINY 
1   FREEDOM'S FLIGHT 
1   BRASS COMPASS  
1   HIGH ROAD 
1   LIKE YOU 
2   MISS AURAMET 
7   ARCHING 
======================================
Tampa Bay Downs
5   MY BOY LENNY 
4   WHEELBARRELBROTHRS 
3   HEY JABBER JAW 
3   BURKEY'S BABE 
4   MY COWBOY 
8   MISS MARGARET ANN  
4   MAROON MANIAC 
1   UNCOMMON FACTOR 
4   CLASSY OF COURSE  

[calva decoy]

Tampa Bay

528- Diamond Dust ( 8/1 ) bet 365 ( 2 places )

558- Swift Kid ( 9/1 ) Betfair ( 3 places )

628- Perfetto ( 25/1 ) Betfair ( 4 places )  3rd 12/1

Gulfstream

645- Stated ( 10/1 ) sky ( 3 places )

715- Mr Chaplin ( 16/1 ) coral ( 2 places )

746- Palace Kitten ( 11/1 ) coral ( 4 places )

 

All each way singles .

Edited April 18, 2020 by calva decoy
Results update

[BillyHills]

Gulfstream/Tampa

658 TB: U Know I B Lion
715 GP: Krachenwagen
828 TB: Economic Policy
921 GP: Front Loaded

EW
953 GP: Dark Artist

 

[justanotherpunter]

Tampa Bay    5.58    Trap                              12/1ew
Tampa Bay    5.28    Diamond Dust               15/2ew
Tampa Bay    5.58    Wheelbarrelbrothrs       10/1ew
Tampa Bay    6.28    Northern                          7/2
Tampa Bay    6.58    U Know I B Lion              7/4
Tampa Bay    7.28    Fox Rox                          6/1ew
Tampa Bay    7.58    Premier Justice               9/2ew
Tampa Bay    8.28    Safe And Sound            13/2ew
Tampa Bay    9.00    Dreaming Diamonds        6/4
Tampa Bay    9.32    Classy Lynn                     9/4

Win and ew singles on above

[justanotherpunter]

Tampa Bay    6.58    U Know I B Lion              7/4
Tampa Bay    9.00    Dreaming Diamonds       6/4
Tampa Bay    9.32    Classy Lynn                    9/4

Win Trixie above 3 selections

Tampa Bay    7.28    Fox Rox                         6/1ew
Tampa Bay    7.58    Premier Justice              9/2ew
Tampa Bay    8.28    Safe And Sound           13/2ew

ew trixie above 3 selections

[justanotherpunter]

Not much doing there then -

Tampa Bay    5.58    Trap                            12/1ew-------lost
Tampa Bay    5.28    Diamond Dust            15/2ew-------lost
Tampa Bay    5.58    Wheelbarrelbrothrs    10/1ew-------3rd 8/1
Tampa Bay    6.28    Northern                         7/2---------1st 9/2
Tampa Bay    6.58    U Know I B Lion             7/4---------lost
Tampa Bay    7.28    Fox Rox                         6/1ew-------lost
Tampa Bay    7.58    Premier Justice              9/2ew-------lost
Tampa Bay    8.28    Safe And Sound            13/2ew-------lost
Tampa Bay    9.00    Dreaming Diamonds         6/4---------lost
Tampa Bay    9.32    Classy Lynn                      9/4---------lost

Win and ew singles on above

Tampa Bay    6.58    U Know I B Lion                7/4---------lost
Tampa Bay    9.00    Dreaming Diamonds         6/4---------lost
Tampa Bay    9.32    Classy Lynn                      9/4---------lost

Win Trixie above 3 selections

Tampa Bay    7.28    Fox Rox                            6/1ew-------lost
Tampa Bay    7.58    Premier Justice                 9/2ew-------lost
Tampa Bay    8.28    Safe And Sound              13/2ew-------lost

ew trixie above 3 selections