Racing Chat - Sunday Mar 22nd

[BillyHills]

Greyville, Sha Tin and Downpatrick

310 DP: Ulster National

 

1pt EW Cheb De Kerviniou 6/1 betvic

 

Best Bet at Greyville

11.55 Al Time High 6/5 betfred
 

835 Sha Tin: HONG KONG DERBY
1. Golden Sixty 
2. Champions Way
1pt R/V Forecast

 

 

[richard-westwood]

Ulster national 

Cheb de kerinov  228

General principle 227

These 2 are a little clear of next horse so I'll play ew

Cheb ...10pts ew 11/2 bet365

General   10pts ew 12/1 willh

[Darran]

Regular readers of my previews will know that I don't tip in Irish hunter chases that often. The main reason for that is the fact I don't usually have the time to add Irish hunter chases to my usual workload of Non-League Football and UK hunter chases. With both those two out of action at the moment it means I can actually spend a bit of time on the Irish scene and they have a hunter chase at Downpatrick on Sunday.

We have two horses at the top of the market Complete Sizing and On The Sod. I know the former has Jamie Codd on, but I don't really fancy him. It wasn't a strong open that he was 2nd in last time and the time before he fell in a hunter chase at Clonmel. That was in January and it was his first run since last May when he went off 8/13, but didn't seem to handle the good ground when he was well beaten by Rewritetherules. He also finished lame that day and his history shows that he clearly has had his issues over the years. He could come on for the run last time, but I think he needs to.

On The Sod is 3/3 and has Rob James on top who will be on top of the world after winning at Cheltenham last week. Had one run last season and then returned to beat Samurai Cracker by a short head in November. That is strong form as he has won a hunter chase since and run well in some good races including when falling at the last in the Naas race Billaway won in January. Last month he was an easy winner and he clocked a decent time. The odd comment after the race from his trainer suggested that he would only go for a hunter chase if it was at a left-handed venue. I find it odd because it was a right-handed track last time so I don't see it being an issue and he looks a very promising horse.

Heydour was rated 123 over Rules when trained in the UK and was 2nd a couple of times at Ludlow and Huntingdon. He won a maiden point last month, but that form wouldn't be good enough to win this. That was on heavy though and his good form in the UK was on decent ground. The trainer is using the horse to help give his 18yo son experience and he now can only run in hunter chases. On his UK form he'd have a chance, but that would suggest he wants good ground and that he got away with heavy ground last time as it was a much lower class.

Handy Headon has been supported and I can understand why. He was impressive when winning his maiden in January where his trainer said the next target was he hunt race at Punchestown point to point which he pushed Rewritetherules close in. Now Rewritetherules apparently wasn't at his best that day and he wasn't great at Cheltenham last week, but I still think it was a good run from Handy Headon. If Punchestown does happen then he will be aimed at the Bishopscourt Cup a race he fell in last year.

Holycross Lito showed some good form in points in 2017 winning 4 times. She then went under Rules but it never really worked out for her so she went back pointing and produced a superb performance to beat top pointer Longhouse Music (who also runs here) in October. She was disappointing on his next start which was in a Clonmel hunter chase in January, but given she has been off since my guess is she had an issue that day. She has to have a good chance if at her best.

Next in the betting is Longhouse Music and she has won 20 times in 36 starts in points. After the defeat to Holycross Lito she won a couple of weeks later, before being well beaten by Mighty Stowaway when only 4th. She had a break after that and returned a couple of weeks ago when winning easily at 1/2 although the horse just in front did fall at the last. The problem is her Rules form is pretty poor including in a couple of hunter chases in 2017 and 2018. With pointing being closed in Ireland she has been forced to run in a hunter chase and on her Rules form I have to rule her out.

Well Bill was a winner a couple of weeks ago where he reversed form with Like A Demon who had beaten him the time before. This race was named as his next race after that win, but he has hardly been a prolific winner in points and needs to find something for me.

The other one worth mentioning is Getzie who has more letters than numbers in his form, but he is clearly coming into form. 2 starts back he was very unlucky to slip on landing at 2 out and he had to be pulled up. He then duly bolted up by 12L to lose his maiden tag at the beginning of the month. Interestingly a hunter chase was mentioned as a possible aim after that win so connections clearly think he is up to running well. If he can continue on the progression then he can outrun his massive odds.

On The Sod has to be the main bet for me. He looks a like he could be pretty could and he might well turn out to be hard to beat. I'm not sure about Complete Sizing and Heydour probably wants better ground. Handy Headon has been backed and can't be ruled out although Punchestown (if it is on) is clearly the main aim. Longhouse Music's rules form puts me off, but Holycross Lito who has beaten her twice anyway looks a good e/w bet at the prices as she is better than she showed last time and it could be worth forgiving her that effort. Finally I am having a small e/w bet at Getzie at 66/1 as he is clearly coming to himself and looks over priced at huge odds.

On The Sod 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365

Holycross Lito 0.75pts e/w @ 9/1 with everyone

Getzie 0.25pts e/w @ 66/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred

[Ryanpete]

Downpatrick

1 Vinnie Is busy 9/4

2 Wajaaha 11/4

3 Silk Worm 10/1

4 Cheb De Kerviniou 11/2

5 The Trigger 10/1

6 On The Sod 2/1

7 Ballyadam 1/3

365

Good luck guys 

[Tedthewolf]

Its is my countries National  today & i think i have 2 cracking e/w bets in the race and with skybet paying 5 places  these two deffo worth a look. This is  a very competitive & open looking race. We have a lot of the usual suspects in this race  one's that run in  the nationals in the different counties in Ireland. The fav does not fit that bill,  Ifyouatchmenow  from the powerful Willie Mullins yard looks a fine chaser in the making impressive winner lto   but up 8lbs and a price of around 4/1 is not for me today. General Principle does fit bill is a regular in these and usually runs well and is a former Irish national winner  on a fair mark and has a claimer on top is in decent form  but i just can't get excited about the 12/1 on  offer  from bookies so not for me but  would be no surprise to see a big run from this horse today. The strong Elliott yard are strongly represented with 6 runners  a couple of them more  fancied than the one i have backed OUT SAM 12/1 has  Jamie Codd on top who is a damn fine Jockey  this horse won the Cork national  back end of 2018 back down to a very good mark can pick up another one of these races up shortly off this  very attractive mark  ran a cracker in the cross country at Cheltenham although i would have liked 16/1 or more i will settle for 14 big chance today imho as has my second selection  im very sweet on SPACE CADET 28/1 (40's in places but not paying 5 places) running a big race today, that's too big a price in my book. Record of 1/18 run does not look great or anything to be excited about but has run some really decent races in decent company on a good looking mark has a 7lb claimer on top this formerly trained Elliott runner should go well today. One other worth a mention  Ah Littleluck is a res but at 40/1 would be a small e/w  play if getting into the race.

Best of luck all.

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Tedthewolf
wrong price

[Striker]

Good luck all

3.40-The Trigger

Each Way @ 15-2 [4 places]  William Hill

Old boy should run well if repeating the last run

[richard-westwood]

240 down

Severus Alexander 223

Silk worm  221 

These 2 are a little clear in very tricky race but I'll play 

Severus 10pts ew 5/1 willh

Silk 10pts ew 11/1 willh

[richard-westwood]

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

240 down

Severus Alexander 223

Silk worm  221 

These 2 are a little clear in very tricky race but I'll play 

Severus 10pts ew 5/1 willh

Silk 10pts ew 11/1 willh

Silk worm drifted to 16/1 ...3rd 

[Villa Chris]

6 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Its is my countries National  today & i think i have 2 cracking e/w bets in the race and with skybet paying 5 places  these two deffo worth a look. This is  a very competitive & open looking race. We have a lot of the usual suspects in this race  one's that run in  the nationals in the different counties in Ireland. The fav does not fit that bill,  Ifyouatchmenow  from the powerful Willie Mullins yard looks a fine chaser in the making impressive winner lto   but up 8lbs and a price of around 4/1 is not for me today. General Principle does fit bill is a regular in these and usually runs well and is a former Irish national winner  on a fair mark and has a claimer on top is in decent form  but i just can't get excited about the 12/1 on  offer  from bookies so not for me but  would be no surprise to see a big run from this horse today. The strong Elliott yard are strongly represented with 6 runners  a couple of them more  fancied than the one i have backed OUT SAM 12/1 has  Jamie Codd on top who is a damn fine Jockey  this horse won the Cork national  back end of 2018 back down to a very good mark can pick up another one of these races up shortly off this  very attractive mark  ran a cracker in the cross country at Cheltenham although i would have liked 16/1 or more i will settle for 14 big chance today imho as has my second selection  im very sweet on SPACE CADET 28/1 (40's in places but not paying 5 places) running a big race today, that's too big a price in my book. Record of 1/18 run does not look great or anything to be excited about but has run some really decent races in decent company on a good looking mark has a 7lb claimer on top this formerly trained Elliott runner should go well today. One other worth a mention  Ah Littleluck is a res but at 40/1 would be a small e/w  play if getting into the race.

Best of luck all.

 

Nice pick 

[Trotter]

6 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

I im very sweet on SPACE CADET 28/1 (40's in places but not paying 5 places) running a big race today, that's too big a price in my book. 

 

Great stuff Ted ! ............ ?

[Tedthewolf]

Cheers was due a big one! ?

[Ryanpete]

8 hours ago, Ryanpete said:

Downpatrick

1 Vinnie Is busy 9/4

2 Wajaaha 11/4

3 Silk Worm 10/1

4 Cheb De Kerviniou 11/2

5 The Trigger 10/1

6 On The Sod 2/1

7 Ballyadam 1/3

365

Good luck guys 

Not the best, bit unlucky with one missing a placee for £300 return off 2.50 ew. (Assuming ballyadam places)  And nice pick Ted 

[Striker]

5 hours ago, Striker said:

Good luck all

3.40-The Trigger

Each Way @ 15-2 [4 places]  William Hill

Old boy should run well if repeating the last run

2nd

[LeMale]

1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

Cheers was due a big one! ?

I just love a longshot and Space Cadet @ 33-1 was a beauty...Thanks Ted!!

[Darran]

On The Sod looks a very promising horse based on that performance. Will be interesting where he goes next although the situation we are currently in will have a big say I would imagine. Looks a possible John Corbet cup winner though. Getzie ran a big race and looked like he would hit the frame at one stage. The other selection was a bit disappointing. Profit though which is the key. I think I’m right in saying the next hunter chase is the one at Fairyhouse over Easter should Ireland get that far and the meeting takes place.

[BillyHills]

Nice one Ted