Racing Chat - Saturday April 11th

[BillyHills]

Group 1 action in Australia on Saturday

UK horses Addeybb (6.55) and Young Rascal (6.15) going again for William Haggas

Randwick 2.35 am - 8.10 am

Nap: 735 Funstar

Nb: 530 Probabeel

 

Ascot and Caulfield also race

850 AS: Tuscan Queen

825 CF:  Fidelia 

EW 715 CF: Hellova Street

 

US Racing at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay to follow

 

 

[BillyHills]

Tom Marquand popular down under

Quote

Punters certainly haven't missed Tom Marquand's first ride on Day 2 of The Championships, backing Azaly from $8.50 into $4.60.

The Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig-trained colt finished third in a Kilmore maiden on debut before crossing the line with the promising Ole Kirk in a 1050m trial at Randwick on March 27.

The son of Dundeel steps up sharply to the mile, taking on last-start winner Postcode and the G3-placed Untamed. 

 

Marquand - a favourite with Australian punters - will pilot another well-backed runner in race two, with Indy Car supported from $13 into $7.

Indy Car was a brilliant winner over 1100m on resumption, motoring home from last at the 300m to prevail in a blanket finish. 

 

Tips from local experts?

[Darran]

Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick on Saturday morning sees more top class action and the two William Haggas trained runners are back in action as well. Tom Marquand rides both of them and he has a pretty good book of rides throughout the card as well.

Race 1 (2.35am)

A Listed 2yo race to open the card and the one I like is Untamed. He won on his debut in January and then a couple of weeks ago at Rosehill he finished 2nd in a G3 when backed at big odds. The front 2 pulled over 3L clear of the rest there so it was a good performance. He goes up in trip another 200m which looks like it will suit and there should be plenty more to come. Postcode is a bit more exposed having 5 starts and the 3 of the first 4 starts came in Group races where he ran well. He didn't run in a maiden until last week where he finally broke his maiden tag at Hawksbury. He looks the main danger along with Tom Marquand's mount Azaly. He has just had the 1 start in Victoria at Kilmore where he was 3rd over 1100m. He looked like he needed further and he clocked the 4th fastest last 200m of the day. He has since finished 2nd in a trail and he should run well.

Untamed @ 6/4 with everyone bar Bet365

Race 2 (3.10am)

Granted Indy Car's win last time was only in a BM70 and he is into Listed company here, but it was an impressive performance. He didn't get a good break from the stalls that day and got crowded as well. He was about 15L behind the leader as they turned for home and then he flew home in the last 250m to just get up in time. You don't win like that unless you have a fair bit of class and it certainly looked like a performance that merited going back up in class. Tom Marquand rides and he looks to have a solid e/w chance back up in trip. Yao Dash is likely to be better than he showed last time when he came back with a couple of cuts. Hilo made a winning return when winning here last month in a BM70 before finishing 3rd at Rosehill in a Listed Race. That was over 1200m and he looks like he needs the extra 200m here. Spend is another one to consider who ran a really good race in the Bendigo Guineas a couple of weeks ago when 4th.

Indy Car @ 6/1 e/w with Betfred and William Hill

Race 3 (3.45am)

This race is the Provincial Championships Final which gives those running and trained outside of Sydney a chance of a big pot on a big day. There are two I like here. First is another Tom Marquand ridden horse in the shape of Animate. He has won 4 of his 6 starts including his last 3 as he has gone up through the grades. The last of those wins came in a qualifier for this at Newcastle and it was a really impressive performance as he sprinted away late on to beat Oxford Tycoon who re-opposes. 

The other one I like is Asharani who also won at Newcastle last time. He came from a long way back and then battled late on to win. That was over 1200m and he looks like the step up to 1400m will be ideal and he has already won over course and distance in December. He broke the track record at Newcastle and is sure to be flying home late.

They are the two bets, but Electric Girl is another with calimes have won 4 of her 7 starts including her last 3. she won a qulaifier at Kembla Grange where she broke the 24 year old track record.

Animate @ 9/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Asharani @ 4/1 with William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power

Race 4 (4.20am)

A Group 2 for 2yo fillies and although we have some promising once race types who could be anything I am going to stick with the proven Group 1 form of Away Game. She was 2nd in the Golden Slipper 3 weeks ago which came on the back of finishing 4th in the Blue Diamond at Caulfield. 4 starts back she won the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast and for me she has the best form in the race. The slight concern is if she runs flat after a long prep, but if she runs up to form then she wins this.

Away Game @ 9/4 with William Hill and BetVictor

Race 5 (4.55am)

I saw an interview with James McDonald earlier in the week and he was very bullish about the chances of Cosmic Force. You do have to forgive his run in The Galaxy last time as he only beat one home when a well backed favourite. He wasn't given the best of rides and he got hampered so his jockey wasn't hard on him after that. Glen Boss was on that day and McDonald returns here and he thinks Cosmic Force is a G1 horse. He was 2nd before that and recorded the fastest final 200m of the day on that occasion. I certainly think he is worth giving another chance to.

I am gong to back Dawn Passage e/w as well as he caught the eye at Rosehill in a Listed Race last month. That was his first run of the prep and he didn't get a great deal of luck in running in the home straight. He didn't get out until about 150m to go and then he finished strongly to go down by a Neck behind California Zimbol who re-opposes.I certainly think he can reverse that form and he can go close.

Cosmic Force @ 5/2 with BetVictor

Dawn Passage e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor

Race 6 (5.30am)

The Australian Oaks looks a 3 horse race between Probabeel, Shout The Bar and Colette who won last week. I don't have a strong view on which one will come out on top so will not be having a bet here.

Race 7 (6.15am)

This is the 155th running of the Sydney Cup and it was first won by a British trained winner in 2017 when Polarisation won for Charlie Appleby. This came after the first race had to be voided due to a stricken horse and jockey. Hopefully we can avoid such drama this year, but it could see another British trained with Young Rascal a hot favourite. There was plenty to like in his victory in the Manion Cup 3 weeks ago when he got the better of a battle with Mugatoo. You would imagine he would come on for that although he is going half a mile further than he has ever gone before which is a slight concern. He can win for sure, but I don't think there is much juice in his price.

I am instead going to back last year's Ebor winner Mustajeer instead. I put him up e/w in the Tancred Stakes a couple of weeks ago and he finished off the race well to just get up for 2nd behind Verry Elleegant. That was a really good Group 1 performance over a trip which is short of his best. I know that he disappointed in the Melbourne Cup, but clearly the Ebor win was tip class form and he ran with great promise in the Caulfield Cup when 6th. This prep he has been working his way up to running with this and he has been in superb form. I think he has a huge chance in this and for me there just shouldn't be such a big price difference between him and Young Rascal. I rarely do something like this, but William Hill are going the 1st 4 at 1/5 odds and I think at 4/1 he has to be backed e/w as I can't see him out of the 4. You can get 4/1 the 1st 3 at 1/4 odds as well if you want to play him that way.

Raheen House was sent off favourite for last year's Ebor and he was a good winner last week of the Chairman Stakes which makes him a player. I have to mention my old favourite Gallic Chieftain who was 4th in that contest. I though it was a good run from a log way back and he has a chance of the first 4 at a double figure price, but it is hard to see him being good enough to win this.

Mustajeer e/w @ 4/1 with William Hill (4 places)

Race 8 (6.55am)

The big race of the morning is the Queen Elizabeth which has been won by Winx for the last 3 years and was her final ever start last year. Obviously there is nothing of her class in it this year, but it is still a fascinating contest headed by the Japanese raider Danon Premium. Just over a year ago he beat Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux and it was clear from her and the Caulfield Cup winner that the Japanese horses are a strong bunch at the moment. He was last seen finishing 2nd over a mile in a G1 in November and he clearly has a top chance. The concern is the wet track and also the fact he is coming off a break although having said that he was coming off a break when beating Lys Gracieux.

I am going to favour the British trained Addeybb though. I put him up in the Renvet 3 weeks ago and he battled really well to see off Verry Elleegant who re-opposes here and franked the form the week after when winning the Tancred. Addeybb should come on for that run and that race turned into a sprint which wouldn't have been ideal. This should be run at a stronger gallop. His 2nd to Magical in the Champion Stakes is top class form and I think he can land a 2nd G1 here.

Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare goes here and made a really good return in the Australian Cup, but surely he isn't going to be sharp enough to win this over 2000m. Verry Elleegant herself is also better over further in my view. Master Of Wine is interesting as he has gone through the grades winning his last 4 starts. This is his first run at this level, but he could be up to it. Melody Belle ran well to finish 4th in the Doncaster Mile last week and was 2nd to Magic Wand in the Mackinnion in the Spring at Flemington. She wouldn't be without a chance either.

Addeybb @ 17/5 with Bet365

Race 9 (7.35am)

A couple of interesting stats for this race that I have found. The first is that no winner has come off a last-start finish worse then 4th since 2009. The 2nd is even more eye-catching as no horse over 5 has won the race in its 48-year history. That does bring the favourite Funstar into play and she didn't look like she saw out the 2000m trip a couple of weeks ago when 4th in the Vinery. She is a G1 winner at this trip and she could easily bounce back. I am going to take a couple e/w against her though.

Positive Peace comes into this in flying form having won her last five starts all this prep. She started off in a BM70 went through the handicap grades and ended up winning a G2 at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She clearly needs to step up again now into G1 company, but she could easily do that given what she has done so far this year.

3rd behind Positive Peace was Amangiri and she was making her first start of the prep that day. She is likely to try and make all and she battled on well last time. She should be stronger here and she is 3/4 over 1600m. She looks a big player to me.

Last week's Doncaster Mile Nettoyer goes again here after being fed pizza and drinking champagne after her win last week! She has a chance her again although on the stats she is too old.

Positive Peace e/w @ 8/1 with Betfred (4 places) 

Amangiri e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred (4 places)

[Swaning]

     Gulfstream
17:58 3   WITCH HUNTER
18:26 2   TAPI FROST 
20:52 5   TONS OF GOLD 
21:54 3   GOOD CREDENCE   
22:24 4   SUPREME AURA  
23:25 4   FLYOFF 

TAMPA
17:15 1   BELLA LINDA 
19:45 10  LAST PROMISE 
21:15 11  FELIX THE FOX 

[Darran]

Always nice to wake up to a profit. 4 out of 8 winners and a very impressive performance from addeybb 

[calva decoy]

645 Tampa- POZNAN 13/8

715 Tampa- DANCERONTHEBEACH 3/1 Won 2/1

954 Gulf- BOERNE 7/2 Won 2/1

1024 Gulf- BATTLE OF BLENHEIM 6/4    2nd 6/4

40p Win Lucky 15 , prices Sky Bet , not risking any more .

£6.00 staked

£10.60 returns

Am new to this site after hearing someone on tipster challenge mention it , is there normally more people frequenting the place when we aren't in lockdown ?

It seems awfully quiet ?

 

Edited April 12, 2020 by calva decoy
Results update

[Nigwilliam]

GP. 7.23.  Lashara.  6/1

        8.22.  Solar Warming.  14/1

        10.54. Pacific Gale.  2/1

Singles and a treble.

[Trotter]

Tampa Bay ...... a few favourites and market leaders and some short 'just about EW' shots .. 

5.15 - Bella Linda 3/1

5.45 - Maliced 11/8

6.15 - Sweetly Maid 13/2 EW

6.45 - Three Olivez 5/1 EW

7.15 - Danceronthebeach 3/1

7.45 - Malio's 13/2 EW

8.15 - On A Spreee 11/4

8.45 - Credit Cycle 4/1

9.15 - US Army Corps 11/4

7 x 2 point singles, 3 x 1 point EW singles. Prices Wm Hill.

I've also selected in the first 10 races at Gulfstream for the £20 thread as per follows ......

5.30 - Bolt 11/2

5.58 - I'm A Rockstar 7/1

6.26 - Light Fury 5/1

6.54 - Free Flayme 4/1

7.23 - Lashara 8/1

7.52 - My First Grammy 5/1

8.22 - Solar Warming 14/1

8.52 - Fugitive 8/1

9.23 - Young Raymond 7/2

9.54 - Good Credence 8/1

prices bet365

10 x £1 EW 

 

Nowt on telly tonight so I'l probably just stick SSR on for 4 or 5 hours and have a race every 15 minutes ... 

Hope I have a bit more success than I've had at Hong Kong when trying to pick in every race

 

[BillyHills]

Best bets at Gulfstream & Tampa tonight

558 GP: Witch Hunter
745 TB: Last Promise
915 TB: US Army Corps
EW
815 TB: Gamblers Fallacy

 

[Trotter]

4 Winners and two EW Placed at Tampa ...... finished up 14.85

1 winner, 1 place at Gulfstream ......... finished down by 5.80

At least two jockeys fell off during the races ....... in different races!

Also it's quite annoying how they don't keep to 'off' times ... they seem very lax about doddling down to the start and milling around. Quite often they can go off 20 minutes late for no apparent reason

 

 

[Nigwilliam]

Off times don't mean much with most US tracks. Might be to do with tote takings.  GP was rather annoying tonight. I had to wait longer than usual to lose my money.

[Darran]

Gulfstream always go off at least 5 minutes late for some reason. I’ve seen thousands of races from there and none have been run any less than that.