Darran

It won't be long before we get the first Group 1 action of the spring in Australia and the horses looking to aim themselves at the big prizes are starting to return to action on Saturday. This weekend we are at Caulfield and Randwick.
Caulfield R1 (3.10am)
A small field in the opener in Melbourne and I think it can go to the favourite Sovereign Award. Damian Oliver has a strong book of rides and I expect him to make all on this horse who is on a hat-trick after wins at Sale and Moonee Valley. This race doesn't look any harder than last time and she should be able to dictate matters at the head of the pack. He goes up another 100m in trip, but 3rd up that should be ideal and she looks a progressive horse.
Sovereign Award  @ 21/20 with Bet365
Caulfield R4 (5am)
Going with another Oliver ridden favourite here in Plein Ciel. He loves it here at Caulfield having won 4 times in 6 starts and 2 of those have come in 3 starts over this trip. He was 4th in the Winter Championship last time and it was a solid enough run in a competitive race. He runs well with his races spread out and he looks to have a solid chance. Exasperate could be the main danger as he is 3/4 at Caulfield with all the wins coming over this trip. The concern for him though is he has never won 1st up in 5 attempts.
Plein Ciel @ 5/4 with everyone
Caulfield R7 (7am)
A Listed sprint here and I think Viridine can add to his Bletchingly Stakes win last time out. He's got a nice draw in 2 and I imagine he will sit just off the pace before pouncing in the straight. A few of the dangers are 1st up here as well as ones who are going to need further the further they go into their prep so he has the fitness edge.
Viridine @ 7/4 with Betfred
Caulfield R8 (7.35am)
A good race for this G2 contest and I am going to split my stakes and back the mares Mystic Journey and Arcadia Queen. The former won this contest last season and then had a bit of a frustrating prep after that although she still ran with great credit having been 5th in the Cox Plate. She was only able to have one start in the Autumn when she was 5th in the William Reid which was a cracking run over too short a trip. I think she has a great chance. I also like Arcadia Queen who is 2/2 1st up and has won 6 of her 9 stars. 2 of those defeats came in the Everest and the Golden Eagle. She is coming back from injury which is a slight query, but she is a class horse horse. Kings Will Dream has a solid place chance and Regal Power and Streets Of Avalon also can go well.
Mystic Journey @ 100/30 with Betfair and William Hill
Arcadia Queen @ 4/1 with everyone
Caulfield R9 (8.10am)
The West Australian Showmanship is the warm favourite here and he could be too good for these, but he has been going off Winx odds of late and so he hasn't been beating much although he has been doing it very easily. I'm happy to let him win at the odds and instead will have a little e/w on O'Tauto at a double figure price. His 1st p form is very impressive as he has won once and then finished 2nd to two good horses the other two times. Maybe he will have to settle for 2nd again behind a good one, but he gets in off bottom weight and Oliver is on top so he has a few things in his favour.
O'Tauto @ 10/1 e/w with Betfred and William Hill
Randwick R1 (2.55am)
All Saints' Eve could be hard to beat, but I am going to take her on with Vitesse. All Saints' Eve is resuming and has never run on heavy ground in a race although she is bred to handle it, but Vitesse has been in good form this prep and maps to get an easy lead which is crucial for me in the conditions. She didn't quite have the speed down in trip last time and she has only ever won over 1400m so going back to that trip is ideal for her.
Vitesse @ 4/1 with Betfred
Randwick R7 (6.40am)
North Pacific made his debut in the G2 Silver Slipper and ran well to finish 3rd. He then had a break and returned a month ago and boy was he impressive when bolting up at Rosehill. He looks a really promising horse and the clock backed the visuals up as he clocked up the fastest last 200m of the whole meeting. The main danger will be Smart Image who was the horse Hugh Bowman caused the huge interference on when he won last time.
North Pacific @ 5/4 with Bet365
Randwick R8 (7.20am)
A fascinating race this with a few returning like Shared Ambition who will have bigger targets over further later on in the prep against horses who are fit from racing during the winter. Man Of Peace has won his last twice by making all and has done it very easily both times, but this is a much bigger field and he might mot be able to dictate in quite the same way. Instead I am going to take a chance e/w on Aliferous at a double figure price. She hasn't won for a while, but she is hugely consistent and has been placed in 11 of her 16 runs. She was very good 1st up last time and having trialled well in blinkers she also has them on in this. She is likely to have too much speed for a lot of these returning stayers and it could be a case of if she can run down Man Of Peace.
Aliferous e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred

Jumps racing in Australia for the first 4 races of this month as we build up towards to the grand final of the season at Ballarat. This Sunday we go back to Casterton where hopefully I can match the 4/4 I was at the track when they last had jumps racing. 
Race 1 (3.55am)
A maiden hurdle which for a change hasn't divided. No doubt about the best flat horse in the race which is Saunter Boy and he's been well backed to land this. He's had 1 start for his current trainers since moving after his run at the Gold Coast in May and that came at Flemington when he was 4th in a good race. The winner was Exemplar and he went in again this morning at Flemington. His jumping has been OK in his trials, but the horses who have already run over hurdles don't set that tough a standard to pass and if he brings his flat form to this contest he should win this. I thought the pick of those who have run over hurdles was Beau Balmain who was 2nd to the very good Wolfe Tone at Pakenham, granted he was 12L behind him, but for a first hurdles start it was a solid one. Some of the others bring placed hurdle form to the table, but it doesn't look overly strong to me. I am going to have a small e/w bet on another hurdling newcomer Catalanic. Her recent flat form is nothing special, but I think she could improve for going over hurdles and she has looked quite good in a couple of trial wins so at double figures I will have her on side.
Saunter Boy @ 6/4 with Betfred
Catalanic e/w 11/1 with Betfred
Race 2 (4.35am)
Just the 6 runners now for the Casterton Hurdle and the ex British trained The Statesman is the current favourite. He was making his 2nd hurdle start at Sandown last week after winning a maiden hurdle at Ludlow back in 2017. He was well beaten by Wolfe Tone in 3rd, but you would imagine there would be a bit more to come and there is no Wolfe Tone here. He's a danger, but there are a couple more I like at the prices. So Belafonte has won two of his last 3 hurdles and he looks progressive over them. He won a maiden at the Bool in May and then last time had Slowpoke Rodriguez back in 3rd at Ballarat and given what he's done since that is good form. The 4th at Sandown in between was a good effort as well behind a couple of good horses. He will be bidding to make all and could easily do so. The other one I like is Jamieson. He's 2/2 over hurdles at Casterton and I thought he was running well over fences last time when falling whilst still in 2nd place. Back here he looks over priced at 15/2. Britannicus was impressive in a maiden hurdle here in June although he was last on the flat last time, but he is the other one in with a chance.
So Belafonte @ 5/2 with William Hill and Betfred
Jamieson @ 15/2 with William Hill and Betfred
Race 3 (5.15am)
The Casterton Steeplechase rounds of the jumps racing and it's well worth watching this as the fences are all bushes! I think there are 3 possible winners. The current favourite is Speedy Jax who has been 3rd the last twice including here in June. He's a solid horse and he's won a couple of races here, but I think this contest is stronger than those two and as much as he could win I do think he's a favourite worth taking on. Elvison was just behind him here in June when 4th, but I felt he did really well to finish as close as he did as he was so keen during the race. For me you can upgrade that performance and I think he can reverse form with Speedy Jax. I really fancied Mapping when he won on that Casterton card and he bolted up in a winner of 1. He then went to Pakenham and was given way too much to do when finishing 4th in a good race. Back up in trip is going to suit and for me he is the best value in the race so he is the main bet over Elvison.
Mapping @ 9/2 with everyone
Elvison @ 11/5 with Bet365

Dee Star ran well yesterday but the winner finally managed to win a race. I'm sure he will be back at Cartmel later in the month. Not a bad morning on the Aussie front with 3 winners including New King. There are 3 Aussie jumps races in the morning so I will preview them later today.
You may remember that I put Jack Snipe up last month at Stratford and he was 3rd over hurdles. He made the running that day, but just got a bit tired on his first start back. He's back over fences tonight, in the 7.00, which he is better over and he is well handicapped on his pointing form. He looks set to get an easy lead again and although the short price favourite has an obvious chance the race is pretty poor. With 6/1 freely available I think he looks a really solid e/w bet as at the very least he should hit the frame.
Jack Snipe e/w @ 6/1 with William Hill, Betfred and Betfair

Jumps racing in Australia for the first 4 races of this month as we build up towards to the grand final of the season at Ballarat. This Sunday we go back to Casterton where hopefully I can match the 4/4 I was at the track when they last had jumps racing. 
Race 1 (3.55am)
A maiden hurdle which for a change hasn't divided. No doubt about the best flat horse in the race which is Saunter Boy and he's been well backed to land this. He's had 1 start for his current trainers since moving after his run at the Gold Coast in May and that came at Flemington when he was 4th in a good race. The winner was Exemplar and he went in again this morning at Flemington. His jumping has been OK in his trials, but the horses who have already run over hurdles don't set that tough a standard to pass and if he brings his flat form to this contest he should win this. I thought the pick of those who have run over hurdles was Beau Balmain who was 2nd to the very good Wolfe Tone at Pakenham, granted he was 12L behind him, but for a first hurdles start it was a solid one. Some of the others bring placed hurdle form to the table, but it doesn't look overly strong to me. I am going to have a small e/w bet on another hurdling newcomer Catalanic. Her recent flat form is nothing special, but I think she could improve for going over hurdles and she has looked quite good in a couple of trial wins so at double figures I will have her on side.
Saunter Boy @ 6/4 with Betfred
Catalanic e/w 11/1 with Betfred
Race 2 (4.35am)
Just the 6 runners now for the Casterton Hurdle and the ex British trained The Statesman is the current favourite. He was making his 2nd hurdle start at Sandown last week after winning a maiden hurdle at Ludlow back in 2017. He was well beaten by Wolfe Tone in 3rd, but you would imagine there would be a bit more to come and there is no Wolfe Tone here. He's a danger, but there are a couple more I like at the prices. So Belafonte has won two of his last 3 hurdles and he looks progressive over them. He won a maiden at the Bool in May and then last time had Slowpoke Rodriguez back in 3rd at Ballarat and given what he's done since that is good form. The 4th at Sandown in between was a good effort as well behind a couple of good horses. He will be bidding to make all and could easily do so. The other one I like is Jamieson. He's 2/2 over hurdles at Casterton and I thought he was running well over fences last time when falling whilst still in 2nd place. Back here he looks over priced at 15/2. Britannicus was impressive in a maiden hurdle here in June although he was last on the flat last time, but he is the other one in with a chance.
So Belafonte @ 5/2 with William Hill and Betfred
Jamieson @ 15/2 with William Hill and Betfred
Race 3 (5.15am)
The Casterton Steeplechase rounds of the jumps racing and it's well worth watching this as the fences are all bushes! I think there are 3 possible winners. The current favourite is Speedy Jax who has been 3rd the last twice including here in June. He's a solid horse and he's won a couple of races here, but I think this contest is stronger than those two and as much as he could win I do think he's a favourite worth taking on. Elvison was just behind him here in June when 4th, but I felt he did really well to finish as close as he did as he was so keen during the race. For me you can upgrade that performance and I think he can reverse form with Speedy Jax. I really fancied Mapping when he won on that Casterton card and he bolted up in a winner of 1. He then went to Pakenham and was given way too much to do when finishing 4th in a good race. Back up in trip is going to suit and for me he is the best value in the race so he is the main bet over Elvison.
Mapping @ 9/2 with everyone
Elvison @ 11/5 with Bet365

Dee Star ran well yesterday but the winner finally managed to win a race. I'm sure he will be back at Cartmel later in the month. Not a bad morning on the Aussie front with 3 winners including New King. There are 3 Aussie jumps races in the morning so I will preview them later today.
You may remember that I put Jack Snipe up last month at Stratford and he was 3rd over hurdles. He made the running that day, but just got a bit tired on his first start back. He's back over fences tonight, in the 7.00, which he is better over and he is well handicapped on his pointing form. He looks set to get an easy lead again and although the short price favourite has an obvious chance the race is pretty poor. With 6/1 freely available I think he looks a really solid e/w bet as at the very least he should hit the frame.
Jack Snipe e/w @ 6/1 with William Hill, Betfred and Betfair

The new season in Australia steps up a gear with the first Group 2 of the new campaign. This week we are at Flemington in Melbourne and Rosehill in Sydney and there are a few ex UK horses that I like.
Flemington R1 (3.05am)
I put South Pacific up last time and although he didn't win there was clear progression from his first start in Oz to that 2nd one for the Royal Ascot winner. 3rd up I think he can win and he is weighted to beat Exemplar who landed that contest last time.
South Pacific @ 6/5 with everyone
Flemington R5 (5.35am)
Rivet Delight was a Racing Post Trophy winner when trained over here and he ended up in Hong Kong, but failed to win over there. I did like his debut run in Australia though when he stayed on nicely to finish 4th. That was also his first run for a year and there should be more to come from him. 
Rivet Delight @ 5/1 with Betfair
Flemington R6 (6.15am)
A Group 3 down the straight here and I like the claims of Great Again. He has a great record over this trip having won half of his 10 starts over 1200m and he has finished 1st and 2nd in his two starts over course and distance. Crucially he loves soft ground which he is certainly going to get here. Even if it goes into the Heavy range he is 1/1 on a heavy track which was his course and distance victory. He was a good 3rd behind Viridine a couple of weeks ago and it's hard to see him not being in the frame at the very least.
Great Again @ 3/1 with everyone
Flemington R7 (6.55am)
Two ex UK horses here and they are both worth backing. Skyman caused a bit of a shock on his Australian debut, but he ran out an impressive winner over 1600m at Caufield. He now steps up in trip top 2000m and that should suit him even better and he won over that far at Sandown a year ago. He looks progressive. Martin Meade used to train Cadre Du Noir and his only win to date came at Newmarket last June. Although not winning again in 3 starts after that he should decent form and he was really good on his Australian debut. Heavy ground was a concern that day as former connections thought he needed better ground, but he was only just beaten at Moonee Valley on a Heavy 9. He steps up to 2000m from 1600m and he should improve for it as well. 
Skyman @ 15/8 with William Hill and Betfred
Cadre Du Noir @ 6/1 with William Hill
Rosehill R2 (3.25am)
Royal Banquet has won his last 4 starts and is clearly progressive, but this is his first start at a Saturday metro meeting and I prefer the chances of New King who used to be trained by John Gosden. His last start in the UK was when he bolted up at Sandown last June and he looked a promising horse that day. He has ended up in Australia though and made his first start since here 2 weeks ago. That came over 1300m which wasn't anywhere near far enough for him and his jockey wasn't hard on him at all. His 2 wins in the UK were over 1800m so even 1500m might be on the short side, but with the ground likely to make it a test I am hopeful this son of Frankel can still go close. 
New King e/w @ 17/2 with Betfred
Rosehill R6 (5.55am)
I was really impressed with Anders when he won over course and distance back in May and I think he can take this Listed contest. I think he beat a good horse in 2nd that day and they gapped the rest. He won a recent trial as well so he comes into this 1st run of the prep in good shape.
Anders @ 9/4 with everyone
Rosehill R7 (6.35am)
The Group 2 Missile Stakes is over 1200m and four of the last six runnings have been won by mares and I think it can be won by a mare again in the shape of Flit. Her record over 1200m is superb having never been out of the 1st 2 over that trip. She won a G2 over 1200m at Randwick in February and was 2nd over the same course and distance in another Group 2 in April on her last start. That first win was first up as well and we know she will handle soft or heavy ground. She has trialled well and looks to have a good chance.
Flit @ 9/2 with William Hill
Rosehill R9 (7.35am)
Another ex UK horse is one I like in this contest in the shape of Cristal Breeze. He won over 1200 at Canterbury 1st up in Oz and then ran in a good BM78 when finishing 2nd to Handspun. I like that form and he has had a trial since that run a month ago to keep him ticking over. He looks like he can continue to progress. I am also going to back Partners who comes here in really food form having won twice and then finishing 2nd last time. He's a duel course and distance winner and is 2/2 on a Heavy track should it get into that range. The winner last time had also been in good form so the form of that contest stacks up. 
Cristal Breeze N/R
Partners @ 5/1 with Bet365

The new season in Australia steps up a gear with the first Group 2 of the new campaign. This week we are at Flemington in Melbourne and Rosehill in Sydney and there are a few ex UK horses that I like.
Flemington R1 (3.05am)
I put South Pacific up last time and although he didn't win there was clear progression from his first start in Oz to that 2nd one for the Royal Ascot winner. 3rd up I think he can win and he is weighted to beat Exemplar who landed that contest last time.
South Pacific @ 6/5 with everyone
Flemington R5 (5.35am)
Rivet Delight was a Racing Post Trophy winner when trained over here and he ended up in Hong Kong, but failed to win over there. I did like his debut run in Australia though when he stayed on nicely to finish 4th. That was also his first run for a year and there should be more to come from him. 
Rivet Delight @ 5/1 with Betfair
Flemington R6 (6.15am)
A Group 3 down the straight here and I like the claims of Great Again. He has a great record over this trip having won half of his 10 starts over 1200m and he has finished 1st and 2nd in his two starts over course and distance. Crucially he loves soft ground which he is certainly going to get here. Even if it goes into the Heavy range he is 1/1 on a heavy track which was his course and distance victory. He was a good 3rd behind Viridine a couple of weeks ago and it's hard to see him not being in the frame at the very least.
Great Again @ 3/1 with everyone
Flemington R7 (6.55am)
Two ex UK horses here and they are both worth backing. Skyman caused a bit of a shock on his Australian debut, but he ran out an impressive winner over 1600m at Caufield. He now steps up in trip top 2000m and that should suit him even better and he won over that far at Sandown a year ago. He looks progressive. Martin Meade used to train Cadre Du Noir and his only win to date came at Newmarket last June. Although not winning again in 3 starts after that he should decent form and he was really good on his Australian debut. Heavy ground was a concern that day as former connections thought he needed better ground, but he was only just beaten at Moonee Valley on a Heavy 9. He steps up to 2000m from 1600m and he should improve for it as well. 
Skyman @ 15/8 with William Hill and Betfred
Cadre Du Noir @ 6/1 with William Hill
Rosehill R2 (3.25am)
Royal Banquet has won his last 4 starts and is clearly progressive, but this is his first start at a Saturday metro meeting and I prefer the chances of New King who used to be trained by John Gosden. His last start in the UK was when he bolted up at Sandown last June and he looked a promising horse that day. He has ended up in Australia though and made his first start since here 2 weeks ago. That came over 1300m which wasn't anywhere near far enough for him and his jockey wasn't hard on him at all. His 2 wins in the UK were over 1800m so even 1500m might be on the short side, but with the ground likely to make it a test I am hopeful this son of Frankel can still go close. 
New King e/w @ 17/2 with Betfred
Rosehill R6 (5.55am)
I was really impressed with Anders when he won over course and distance back in May and I think he can take this Listed contest. I think he beat a good horse in 2nd that day and they gapped the rest. He won a recent trial as well so he comes into this 1st run of the prep in good shape.
Anders @ 9/4 with everyone
Rosehill R7 (6.35am)
The Group 2 Missile Stakes is over 1200m and four of the last six runnings have been won by mares and I think it can be won by a mare again in the shape of Flit. Her record over 1200m is superb having never been out of the 1st 2 over that trip. She won a G2 over 1200m at Randwick in February and was 2nd over the same course and distance in another Group 2 in April on her last start. That first win was first up as well and we know she will handle soft or heavy ground. She has trialled well and looks to have a good chance.
Flit @ 9/2 with William Hill
Rosehill R9 (7.35am)
Another ex UK horse is one I like in this contest in the shape of Cristal Breeze. He won over 1200 at Canterbury 1st up in Oz and then ran in a good BM78 when finishing 2nd to Handspun. I like that form and he has had a trial since that run a month ago to keep him ticking over. He looks like he can continue to progress. I am also going to back Partners who comes here in really food form having won twice and then finishing 2nd last time. He's a duel course and distance winner and is 2/2 on a Heavy track should it get into that range. The winner last time had also been in good form so the form of that contest stacks up. 
Cristal Breeze N/R
Partners @ 5/1 with Bet365

Captain Bucks might well be capable of winning again, but the price seems tight enough and it looks a stronger heat than the one he won at Stratford so will leave him alone today. Instead I like the chances of Dee Star in the 3.10. He won a maiden hunter chase here last year and although its always a fairly weak race, he bolted up. I then fancied him in a handicap over today's course and distance, but it was a rare poor ride from Gina and she made her move way too late. That was in a much bigger field than today so hopefully he will be able to sit closer to the pace. He is up in grade from that contest, but I thought it looked a pretty weak race and that would give him a good chance to win again. He pulled up last time in March, but the ground was too heavy that day and today's should be fine given it was good to soft when he won the hunter chase. The favourite is the obvious danger and he will probably pop up one day, but he's still a maiden so I am happy to take him on. Dee Star has been nibbled in the betting already, but 4/1 is still big enough for me.
Dee Star @ 4/1 with everyone

Captain Bucks might well be capable of winning again, but the price seems tight enough and it looks a stronger heat than the one he won at Stratford so will leave him alone today. Instead I like the chances of Dee Star in the 3.10. He won a maiden hunter chase here last year and although its always a fairly weak race, he bolted up. I then fancied him in a handicap over today's course and distance, but it was a rare poor ride from Gina and she made her move way too late. That was in a much bigger field than today so hopefully he will be able to sit closer to the pace. He is up in grade from that contest, but I thought it looked a pretty weak race and that would give him a good chance to win again. He pulled up last time in March, but the ground was too heavy that day and today's should be fine given it was good to soft when he won the hunter chase. The favourite is the obvious danger and he will probably pop up one day, but he's still a maiden so I am happy to take him on. Dee Star has been nibbled in the betting already, but 4/1 is still big enough for me.
Dee Star @ 4/1 with everyone

Captain Bucks might well be capable of winning again, but the price seems tight enough and it looks a stronger heat than the one he won at Stratford so will leave him alone today. Instead I like the chances of Dee Star in the 3.10. He won a maiden hunter chase here last year and although its always a fairly weak race, he bolted up. I then fancied him in a handicap over today's course and distance, but it was a rare poor ride from Gina and she made her move way too late. That was in a much bigger field than today so hopefully he will be able to sit closer to the pace. He is up in grade from that contest, but I thought it looked a pretty weak race and that would give him a good chance to win again. He pulled up last time in March, but the ground was too heavy that day and today's should be fine given it was good to soft when he won the hunter chase. The favourite is the obvious danger and he will probably pop up one day, but he's still a maiden so I am happy to take him on. Dee Star has been nibbled in the betting already, but 4/1 is still big enough for me.
Dee Star @ 4/1 with everyone

Some top quality jumping action at Sandown in the early hours of the morning with the Grand National Hurdle and the Crips Steeplechase. Here are my thoughts on the 3 jumps races.
Race 1 (2.55am)
A cracking BM120 hurdle here which looks competitive.
Northern Voyage - On last seasons 3 hurdles runs he would have a great chance here and it was as solid 2nd on his first run this year in March, but he clearly wasn't right on his next start at Pakenham in April as he wasn't seen until two trials last month. He has the form to win, but he looks really short in the betting so happy to take him on.
Riding High - 2/2 over hurdles and one a good one of these at the Bool in May. Not seen over hurdles since and his two recent flat runs weren't great. Has a chance if able to show the form he did earlier in the season.
San Remo - Has looked good in both hurdle starts winning a strong maiden hurdle in June and then last month just being beaten by Bee Tee Junior which is also strong form. Was back on the flat at Flemington last time and ran as well as could be expected in a good race. Both hurdle wins were on Heavy 10's, but the quicker ground shouldn't be a worry for him as he's won on good on the flat. Big player for me.
The Statesman - Feels odd to write about a maiden hurdle at Ludlow, but that is The Statesman only run over hurdles and he bolted up. He used to be trained by Ian Williams before coming to Australia and that win probably would give him a chance in a race like this, but his flat form has tailed off a bit and his hurdle trials haven't told us much. That hurdle win was on good to firm though and I just wonder if he really wants a bit of cut in the ground. Adds intrigue to the race for sure.
Wolfe Tone - Was really impressive at Pakenham on his hurdles debut and he had the right 2 in 2nd and 3rd that day. Based on that he has to have a chance in this if progressing again.
Animator - Another slight unknown as his two hurdles runs were in New Zealand. Impressively won the first of them before failing to finish a year ago. Flat form is OK, but will be a good effort to win this on his first hurdles start in a year.
Instigator - Should really have won last time, but 1 win in 28 starts tells a story. He clearly has a good bit of ability, but getting him to finish in 1st is tough and he's up in grade here as well. Seems short in the betting.
Summary - Those above look the possible winners in my view. San Remo looks a massive price to me at 9/1. I just don't understand how he is so big given his form looks really strong and he comes here in good form. Most of the others have question marks about them as much as they have the form capable of landing this, but I do think his form is as good as those shorter in the market anyway and in some cases he betters them. I will also have a saver on Wolfe Tone because I was really taken with him at Pakenham.
San Remo e/w @ 9/1 with Betfred
Wolfe Tone @ 16/5 with Betfair
Race 2 (3.35am)
The Grand National Hurdle might have 8 runners, but only 4 will count and apparently we might see one of these running at Aintree next year!
Tallyho Twinkletoe - Won this last year and is 9/10 over hurdles and fences in New Zealand and Australia. Only just beat Bee Tee Junior last time and had to survive a protest, but I think he will come on for that run especially as his previous run in New Zealand had only been 9 days previously in a race that was only run over 2400m. Last time it was 3500m and that will have got him match fit going back up to 4200m. Bee Tee Junior is better off at the weights here and he does have to give 4kgs to Ablaze, but he is the one they have to beat.
Gobstopper - Had been winning all the feature hurdles this season until he was only 3rd behind Tallyho last time. If he won it wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world, but clearly he needs to step up on that Pakenham effort.
Ablaze - 2/2 over hurdles and 2/2 over fences. He was superb in winning the Grand Annual in May and apparently he is being aimed at the Grand National at Aintree next year. He was poor on the flat at Rosehill last time, but that race turned into a sprint and it just didn't suit him. He does get 4kgs from the top one, but I just wonder if the lack of a recent run over hurdles and the fact he's had a month off the track might just tip the balance in Tallyho's favour.
Bee Tee Junior - So close to beating the top one last time and as I mention above is better off at the weights here, but I do think Tallyho has more to come. The distance is an unknown, but he looks like he will stay and he isn't out of this.
Summary - A cracking race and I am really looking forward to it. Bee Tee Junior is progressive and could upset the top 2 in the betting, but to me the winner is likely to be Ablaze or Tallyho Twinkletoe. It is the New Zealand horse I am going with though as he should improve for the Pakenham run and he was so good last year.
Tallyho Twinkletoe @ 6/5 with Betfred
Race 3 (4.15am)
Speaking of the Grand National this is named after the great Crisp. Shamal has been really disappointing in two starts since his win and I have to leave him alone here on the back of those efforts. The Dominator lived up to his name at Pakenham when putting in a superb front running performance to beat a useful field in a BM120. He steps up in trip by 1000m and the furthest he's won over is 3600m. This is a stiff course as well and nothing like the flat Pakenham so I find it hard to see him being able to do the same as he did last time here. I put up Felix Bay last time at Pakenham when he was 3rd to Slowpoke Rodriguez. He was left with too much to do although he does have to be ridden quietly, but the tactics were overdone. The step up in trip is going to suit and he will probably come on for that run as well. He also meets him 4kgs better than at Pakenham for a 2L defeat. Anything other than those 4 would be a surprise and it is Felix Bay for me.
Felix Bay @ 2/1 with everyone

August 1st means that not only do all the horses in Australia have their birthday's, but it is also the start of the new season and in turn means we are getting closer to the big spring races. In Melbourne we are back at Moonee Valley and in Sydney we are at Randwick and I have bets in 7 races.
Moonee Valley R4 (5.30am)
No doubt that Brooklyn Hustle is the best horse in this BM78 and it's surprising she even is able to run in this grade. Her only start here she beat Everest winner Yes Yes Yes in a superb victory from last to first. Her last start saw her finish 5th in the G1 Cooolmore Stud during the Melbourne Cup carnival and in the context of this contest that is strong form. She hasn't run since, but she has been good fresh in the past and she should be capable of winning this on the way to loftier targets.
Brooklyn Hustle @ 17/10 with Bet365
Moonee Valley R7 (7.25am)
Decent race this and the main one I like is Mirimar whose last two runs were very good. He finished 2nd in the Warrnambool Cup and then he won at Caulfield in a good race. He's perfectly drawn in 5 and should be able to sit just behind the speed. He has an obvious chance. The other one worth backing at monster odds is Lord Durante. Granted he is 12 now, but he's been running well the last twice and he was only just beaten by Bedford at Caulfield last month. That one is much shorter in the market and at 40/1 he is worth covering each-way.
Mirimar @ 11/2 with William Hill and Betfred
Lord Durante @ 40/1 with everyone
Randwick R3 (3.55am)
Kordia makes plenty of appeal having won impressively first up after a long lay off at Rosehill and then finishing 4th last time when it was hard to make up ground. That was behind Inanup and I think that form is strong. Man Of Peace might not get such an easy lead as he did last time and there was a strong on pace bias that day.
Kordia @ 10/11 with Bet365
Randwick R5 (5.10am)
Zourhea looks worth backing here as she was the one horse who was able to come from the back to win on the Kensington track here a couple of weeks ago. She was 8th of 9 passing the 400m marker so it was some effort. If she backs that up here I think she can go in again.
Zourhea @ 3/1 with Bet365
Randwick R7 (6.30am)
I mentioned Inanup above and I think he can go in again. He's run well on both starts back now and he seems to be a horse who has improved with age. I don't think dropping back 100m in trip will bother him. Black Magnum will be popular as he looked really unlucky 1st up a couple of weeks ago and as much as he's a danger I think Inanup can go in again.
Inanup @ 100/30 with everyone
Randwick R8 (7.10am)
Another horse to run well on the Kensington track a couple of weeks ago against the bias was Montefilia who finished a good 3rd having been last passing the 400m marker. That was only her 3rd start and her 1st of the prep so there should be more to come. She didn't get a run during the race either and she clicked the 2nd fastest last 200m of the day. This looks a good chance for her.
Montefilia @ 5/1 with everyone
Randwick R9 (7.50am)
Charretera has been 3rd on all 3 starts this prep so has been racing really consistently. He has been staying on well each time so the step up to 1400m should be ideal for him to finally get that breakthrough win this prep. I also want to cover Miss Redoble. She finished last a month ago here, but was found to have a cardiac arrhythmia so I am going to give her another chance as prior to that she had been looking like she was ready to win.
Charretera @ 16/5 with Bet365
Miss Redoble e/w @ 11/1 with William Hill

August 1st means that not only do all the horses in Australia have their birthday's, but it is also the start of the new season and in turn means we are getting closer to the big spring races. In Melbourne we are back at Moonee Valley and in Sydney we are at Randwick and I have bets in 7 races.
Moonee Valley R4 (5.30am)
No doubt that Brooklyn Hustle is the best horse in this BM78 and it's surprising she even is able to run in this grade. Her only start here she beat Everest winner Yes Yes Yes in a superb victory from last to first. Her last start saw her finish 5th in the G1 Cooolmore Stud during the Melbourne Cup carnival and in the context of this contest that is strong form. She hasn't run since, but she has been good fresh in the past and she should be capable of winning this on the way to loftier targets.
Brooklyn Hustle @ 17/10 with Bet365
Moonee Valley R7 (7.25am)
Decent race this and the main one I like is Mirimar whose last two runs were very good. He finished 2nd in the Warrnambool Cup and then he won at Caulfield in a good race. He's perfectly drawn in 5 and should be able to sit just behind the speed. He has an obvious chance. The other one worth backing at monster odds is Lord Durante. Granted he is 12 now, but he's been running well the last twice and he was only just beaten by Bedford at Caulfield last month. That one is much shorter in the market and at 40/1 he is worth covering each-way.
Mirimar @ 11/2 with William Hill and Betfred
Lord Durante @ 40/1 with everyone
Randwick R3 (3.55am)
Kordia makes plenty of appeal having won impressively first up after a long lay off at Rosehill and then finishing 4th last time when it was hard to make up ground. That was behind Inanup and I think that form is strong. Man Of Peace might not get such an easy lead as he did last time and there was a strong on pace bias that day.
Kordia @ 10/11 with Bet365
Randwick R5 (5.10am)
Zourhea looks worth backing here as she was the one horse who was able to come from the back to win on the Kensington track here a couple of weeks ago. She was 8th of 9 passing the 400m marker so it was some effort. If she backs that up here I think she can go in again.
Zourhea @ 3/1 with Bet365
Randwick R7 (6.30am)
I mentioned Inanup above and I think he can go in again. He's run well on both starts back now and he seems to be a horse who has improved with age. I don't think dropping back 100m in trip will bother him. Black Magnum will be popular as he looked really unlucky 1st up a couple of weeks ago and as much as he's a danger I think Inanup can go in again.
Inanup @ 100/30 with everyone
Randwick R8 (7.10am)
Another horse to run well on the Kensington track a couple of weeks ago against the bias was Montefilia who finished a good 3rd having been last passing the 400m marker. That was only her 3rd start and her 1st of the prep so there should be more to come. She didn't get a run during the race either and she clicked the 2nd fastest last 200m of the day. This looks a good chance for her.
Montefilia @ 5/1 with everyone
Randwick R9 (7.50am)
Charretera has been 3rd on all 3 starts this prep so has been racing really consistently. He has been staying on well each time so the step up to 1400m should be ideal for him to finally get that breakthrough win this prep. I also want to cover Miss Redoble. She finished last a month ago here, but was found to have a cardiac arrhythmia so I am going to give her another chance as prior to that she had been looking like she was ready to win.
Charretera @ 16/5 with Bet365
Miss Redoble e/w @ 11/1 with William Hill

Meldrum Lad goes in the 3.00 at Southwell and you might remember him from last year when he won on Stratford hunter chase night which was a very strong piece of form. After that he ran in a handicap at the same venue and he finished 3rd. The ride wasn't the best and they were called into the stewards although jockey and trainer said the slow pace was against him. The slight concern here is there doesn't look to be a great deal of pace on again, but hopefully there will be and that was a stronger race than this. After that he pulled up at Cheltenham in October over hurdles, but he never got involved and I think the ground was against him as he seems at his best on quick ground. The brush hurdles should suit him well given his pointing exploits and his trainer can certainly get one fit first time. Having said that I do wonder if this could be a pipe opener before they go back over fences with him, but at the price he is I think he is worth a small e/w investment.
Meldrum Lad e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 (16s with Betfair and 14s with Betfred with 4 places)

I love Australian racing and think in many ways it is better than the racing over here, however the one thing that is annoying about racing Down Under is track biases. I know they happen over here as well, but never as bad as in Australia and the Kensington track at Randwick was a disgrace last week. It even led one journalist on a Aussie website to say he was stopping betting before a meeting started because it was that bad. Basically if you were not up front you had no chance and that hampered the bets I put up last week. Hopefully we can get back to a profit on tomorrow's action which comes from Caulfield and Rosehill.
Caulfield R1 (3.00am)
No Say In It has had some terrible luck with the draws of late and added to that last time he had no luck at all in the home straight. He is drawn in 3 tomorrow which should allow him to settle closer to the pace and mean he wont have to go wide. He certainly has the form to land this.
No Say In It @ 9/2 with Bet365
Caulfield R4 (4.45am)
Persan is flying at the moment having won his last 3 and won 4 of his last 5 finishing 2nd on the other run. He looks really progressive and I think he can carry on winning. Right You Are who I put up last Saturday franked the form of his win two starts ago and stepping up to 2000m+ has seen him to great effect.
Persan @ 2/1 with Bet365
Caulfield R7 (6.45am)
I was kicking myself for not putting up Jungle Edge to win a couple of weeks ago when he beat Viridine because the ground went in Jungle Edge's favour. I argued that Viridine handles heavy ground as well which he does, but Jungle Edge is a miles better horse on it than he is on a sounder surface. Tomorrow looks like being a Soft5 and on that Viridine can reverse the form in my opinion especially over 1200m compared to 1100m.
Viridine @ 11/5 with Bet365
Rosehill R4 (4.30am)
I like the last 6 races on the Rosehill card betting wise. Roheryn looked really good when winning 1st up a month ago and he's been kept fresh for this contest. He was still in last place passing the 400m marker but he showed an electric turn of foot late on to score going away in the end. His last 400m was 0.63s quicker than anything else in the race.
Roheryn 8/5 with Bet365
Rosehill R5 (5.05am)
The ex UK horse Korcho won at a massive price for us a couple of weeks ago and I think he can win again on his 4th start in Australia. I thought he looked good in drawing clear from a solid yardstick in New Arrangement. He steps up in trip to 2400m for the first time and he didn't even go that far over here, but given how he won last time it looks like it won't be an issue at all, indeed he looks ready for it. There certainly looks like there will be more to come.
Korcho @ 19/5 with Bet365
Rosehill R6 (5.45am)
Travest was way too far back from a wide draw last time and was still in last past the 400m market. His last 200m though was the 4th fastest of the whole meeting and the form looks strong given the winner won again next time out. He is drawn in 2 tomorrow and that should see him being able to settle a lot closer.
Travest @ 13/5 with Bet365
Rosehill R7 (6.25am)
Good race this. Mugatoo had a great 1st prep in Australia and was 2nd to Young Rascal two starts back before being outclassed the G1 Tancred. 1500m 1st up though looks a bit short for him though so am leaving him alone tomorrow. I am going to take a couple against the field here. Order Again was 3rd behind Noble Boy and Taikomochi, but I think he can reverse the form. He clocked the 2nd quickest last 200m of the meeting in that contest having been held up to pretty much 100m out so he was flying at the death. That race was over 1400m so the extra 100m isn't going to do any harm either. The same can be said for the 4th home that day Dealmaker. I put him up when he won a couple of weeks and he will be better suited to this trip. He's running really consistently this prep and is capable of going close again.
Order Again @ 4/1 with Bet365
Dealmaker @ 7/1 with Bet365
Rosehill R8 (7.05am)
Prime Candidate maps to get an easy lead here and that could be crucial. Last time here over 1200m he was drawn wide in 10 and had a slowish start so had to do a bit of work to be near the lead. The other front runners dropped out of it, but he was able to stay there to only just be denied by Inanup. That followed a solid 1st up run when 4th behind Roheryn who hopefully will frank the form earlier on the card. He could be hard to catch.
Prime Candidate @ 11/4 with Bet365
Rosehill R9 (7.45am)
Prairie Fire looks worth an e/w bet here. He backs up after running a blinder of race on that dodgy Kensington track last week. He was one horse which did manage to run on from the back and passing 400m he only had 1 behind him and yet was beaten just a short head in the end. If he can repeat that effort a week late he surely has to go close.
Praire Fire @ 9/1 e/w with William Hill

I love Australian racing and think in many ways it is better than the racing over here, however the one thing that is annoying about racing Down Under is track biases. I know they happen over here as well, but never as bad as in Australia and the Kensington track at Randwick was a disgrace last week. It even led one journalist on a Aussie website to say he was stopping betting before a meeting started because it was that bad. Basically if you were not up front you had no chance and that hampered the bets I put up last week. Hopefully we can get back to a profit on tomorrow's action which comes from Caulfield and Rosehill.
Caulfield R1 (3.00am)
No Say In It has had some terrible luck with the draws of late and added to that last time he had no luck at all in the home straight. He is drawn in 3 tomorrow which should allow him to settle closer to the pace and mean he wont have to go wide. He certainly has the form to land this.
No Say In It @ 9/2 with Bet365
Caulfield R4 (4.45am)
Persan is flying at the moment having won his last 3 and won 4 of his last 5 finishing 2nd on the other run. He looks really progressive and I think he can carry on winning. Right You Are who I put up last Saturday franked the form of his win two starts ago and stepping up to 2000m+ has seen him to great effect.
Persan @ 2/1 with Bet365
Caulfield R7 (6.45am)
I was kicking myself for not putting up Jungle Edge to win a couple of weeks ago when he beat Viridine because the ground went in Jungle Edge's favour. I argued that Viridine handles heavy ground as well which he does, but Jungle Edge is a miles better horse on it than he is on a sounder surface. Tomorrow looks like being a Soft5 and on that Viridine can reverse the form in my opinion especially over 1200m compared to 1100m.
Viridine @ 11/5 with Bet365
Rosehill R4 (4.30am)
I like the last 6 races on the Rosehill card betting wise. Roheryn looked really good when winning 1st up a month ago and he's been kept fresh for this contest. He was still in last place passing the 400m marker but he showed an electric turn of foot late on to score going away in the end. His last 400m was 0.63s quicker than anything else in the race.
Roheryn 8/5 with Bet365
Rosehill R5 (5.05am)
The ex UK horse Korcho won at a massive price for us a couple of weeks ago and I think he can win again on his 4th start in Australia. I thought he looked good in drawing clear from a solid yardstick in New Arrangement. He steps up in trip to 2400m for the first time and he didn't even go that far over here, but given how he won last time it looks like it won't be an issue at all, indeed he looks ready for it. There certainly looks like there will be more to come.
Korcho @ 19/5 with Bet365
Rosehill R6 (5.45am)
Travest was way too far back from a wide draw last time and was still in last past the 400m market. His last 200m though was the 4th fastest of the whole meeting and the form looks strong given the winner won again next time out. He is drawn in 2 tomorrow and that should see him being able to settle a lot closer.
Travest @ 13/5 with Bet365
Rosehill R7 (6.25am)
Good race this. Mugatoo had a great 1st prep in Australia and was 2nd to Young Rascal two starts back before being outclassed the G1 Tancred. 1500m 1st up though looks a bit short for him though so am leaving him alone tomorrow. I am going to take a couple against the field here. Order Again was 3rd behind Noble Boy and Taikomochi, but I think he can reverse the form. He clocked the 2nd quickest last 200m of the meeting in that contest having been held up to pretty much 100m out so he was flying at the death. That race was over 1400m so the extra 100m isn't going to do any harm either. The same can be said for the 4th home that day Dealmaker. I put him up when he won a couple of weeks and he will be better suited to this trip. He's running really consistently this prep and is capable of going close again.
Order Again @ 4/1 with Bet365
Dealmaker @ 7/1 with Bet365
Rosehill R8 (7.05am)
Prime Candidate maps to get an easy lead here and that could be crucial. Last time here over 1200m he was drawn wide in 10 and had a slowish start so had to do a bit of work to be near the lead. The other front runners dropped out of it, but he was able to stay there to only just be denied by Inanup. That followed a solid 1st up run when 4th behind Roheryn who hopefully will frank the form earlier on the card. He could be hard to catch.
Prime Candidate @ 11/4 with Bet365
Rosehill R9 (7.45am)
Prairie Fire looks worth an e/w bet here. He backs up after running a blinder of race on that dodgy Kensington track last week. He was one horse which did manage to run on from the back and passing 400m he only had 1 behind him and yet was beaten just a short head in the end. If he can repeat that effort a week late he surely has to go close.
Praire Fire @ 9/1 e/w with William Hill

The 8.05 at Newton Abbot has 3 horses from points/hunter chases and annoyingly I think all are capable of winning off their current marks, still at least the prices allow them all to be covered. The best handicapped horse in the race is Ballyknock Cloud and I will be surprised if he doesn't land a race off this mark. I put him up last summer ran he ran in two races over course and distance and he had no luck the first time as he was badly hampered at a crucial stage of the race, but managed to stay on into 4th. A month later he was disappointing, but I reckon there was something wrong as he jumped to his right pretty badly and was well beaten. Given he wasn't seen again it would also suggest there was an issue. It did mean though that he was dropped 4lbs which means he can go into a class 5 here. Fitness is an unknown obviously, but he was due to run in the race a few of these ran in a couple of weeks ago so he was obviously ready to run then. I think he looks a good e/w bet.
Bubble O'Clock was one I put up in that race a couple of weeks back and he ran well to finish 3rd. He loomed large leaving the back, but his run petered out suggesting he would come on for the effort. He still finished 3rd though and I think he can reverse form with Gold Mountain especially as he was dropped 2lbs in the handicap. I want him onside again.
Dido is the other one and he is worth a small e/w bet at double figures. The concern is his rules form hasn't matched his pointing form and he could just be one of those horses that can't transfer his form between the flags to the larger fences. However he did run well at Cheltenham a couple of years ago behind Monsieur Gibraltar in a race which worked out pretty well so there is something to cling onto. 94 is a fair enough mark for him in what is a pretty weak race.
Ballyknock Cloud e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365
Bubble O'Clock @ 5/1 with Bet365
Dido e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365

We were a bit unlucky with Dutch Canyon who just happened to bump into a horse who clearly enjoyed the step up in trip having spent most of his career running over 2m. He beat the others easily enough as well and you would like to think we will get a chance to get our money back.
 
Onto Uttoxeter and I am really looking forward to seeing Monsieur Gibraltar back in action and going into handicap company at 3.10. He has been dominant in points and hunter chases since going to Rose Loxton and has put in some really impressive performances. A glance at his odds would suggest that he should be winning those races easily, but the way he has thrashed his rivals is really something. Also there are a couple of performances we can look at which suggests he can win a race off 138 especially at this time of year. At Kempton last year he ended up being sent off at 1/16 and beat Witness In Court by 16L, but was value for way more. Witness In Court won a hunter chase next time out and then won a handicap off 112 two start after that. That would strictly speaking put Monsieur Gibraltar at 128, but he was value for at least 10L more than that winning margin. The biggest pointer though was when he beat Risk A Fine at Wincanton. Just to remind you I was a huge fan of Risk A Fine last season and he was one of the horses of the last hunter chase season in my opinion. For Monsieur Gibraltar to brush him aside with ease was really impressive. Risk A Fine ended off his season by winning the handicap hunter chase at Stratford off 137 by 17L and is now rated 146. Granted that Stratford race was pretty weak, but it was a dominant performance as were his other two wins after the Wincanton 2nd. He had 1 start this year when bolting up in a point at 1/5 and then strangely had a wind op a few days later. He always wears a tongue-tie, but you would hardly say he ran like he needed a wind op. He was entered in the big race at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago and I think he would have had a real chance in that so dropping to this sort of level he looks to have an excellent chance.
The favourite Mercian Prince has been out of form over fences, but did win a novice hurdle at Bangor 11 days ago. The main advantage he has is that he has had a run otherwise I think Monsieur Gibraltar has the beating of him. If there is a danger then it could be Lovato who won over course and distance last September. He beat Asockastar that day who you may remember won us plenty of money last year. As much as he is a very likeable horse, he was running off 137 that day and if he was only getting a pound from Monsieur Gibraltar I wouldn't have him getting anywhere near him. 
For some reason Maxwell isn't riding tomorrow even though he was jocked up at the 6 day stage so Harry Cobden takes the ride and as much as I am no Maxwell basher that is clearly a massive plus especially as Maxwell won't have ridden since March.
The other pick runs an hour later and although it is impossible to be anywhere near as confident as I am about Monsieur Gibraltar, I have to have a bit on Cinevator at 33/1. Now he has got more P's in his recent form than numbers and that explains the price. Look he could easily have another P in his form after this race, but on his best pointing form he is thrown in off a mark of 73. He had two wins in 2018 and then last April he was only beaten a head in a reasonable enough Ladies Open. Granted he then pulled up on his next start, but if he puts in an effort like any of the 3 runs I have mentioned then he is no 33/1 shot. He clearly isn't one to go mad about and like I say he could pull up, but I am willing to throw a few quid in his direction at the odds.
Monsieur Gibraltar @ 4/1 with Bet365
Cinevator e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365
Just came to mind that I think amateur jockey's still aren't allowed to ride which would obviously rule Maxwell out.

We were a bit unlucky with Dutch Canyon who just happened to bump into a horse who clearly enjoyed the step up in trip having spent most of his career running over 2m. He beat the others easily enough as well and you would like to think we will get a chance to get our money back.
 
Onto Uttoxeter and I am really looking forward to seeing Monsieur Gibraltar back in action and going into handicap company at 3.10. He has been dominant in points and hunter chases since going to Rose Loxton and has put in some really impressive performances. A glance at his odds would suggest that he should be winning those races easily, but the way he has thrashed his rivals is really something. Also there are a couple of performances we can look at which suggests he can win a race off 138 especially at this time of year. At Kempton last year he ended up being sent off at 1/16 and beat Witness In Court by 16L, but was value for way more. Witness In Court won a hunter chase next time out and then won a handicap off 112 two start after that. That would strictly speaking put Monsieur Gibraltar at 128, but he was value for at least 10L more than that winning margin. The biggest pointer though was when he beat Risk A Fine at Wincanton. Just to remind you I was a huge fan of Risk A Fine last season and he was one of the horses of the last hunter chase season in my opinion. For Monsieur Gibraltar to brush him aside with ease was really impressive. Risk A Fine ended off his season by winning the handicap hunter chase at Stratford off 137 by 17L and is now rated 146. Granted that Stratford race was pretty weak, but it was a dominant performance as were his other two wins after the Wincanton 2nd. He had 1 start this year when bolting up in a point at 1/5 and then strangely had a wind op a few days later. He always wears a tongue-tie, but you would hardly say he ran like he needed a wind op. He was entered in the big race at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago and I think he would have had a real chance in that so dropping to this sort of level he looks to have an excellent chance.
The favourite Mercian Prince has been out of form over fences, but did win a novice hurdle at Bangor 11 days ago. The main advantage he has is that he has had a run otherwise I think Monsieur Gibraltar has the beating of him. If there is a danger then it could be Lovato who won over course and distance last September. He beat Asockastar that day who you may remember won us plenty of money last year. As much as he is a very likeable horse, he was running off 137 that day and if he was only getting a pound from Monsieur Gibraltar I wouldn't have him getting anywhere near him. 
For some reason Maxwell isn't riding tomorrow even though he was jocked up at the 6 day stage so Harry Cobden takes the ride and as much as I am no Maxwell basher that is clearly a massive plus especially as Maxwell won't have ridden since March.
The other pick runs an hour later and although it is impossible to be anywhere near as confident as I am about Monsieur Gibraltar, I have to have a bit on Cinevator at 33/1. Now he has got more P's in his recent form than numbers and that explains the price. Look he could easily have another P in his form after this race, but on his best pointing form he is thrown in off a mark of 73. He had two wins in 2018 and then last April he was only beaten a head in a reasonable enough Ladies Open. Granted he then pulled up on his next start, but if he puts in an effort like any of the 3 runs I have mentioned then he is no 33/1 shot. He clearly isn't one to go mad about and like I say he could pull up, but I am willing to throw a few quid in his direction at the odds.
Monsieur Gibraltar @ 4/1 with Bet365
Cinevator e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365
Just came to mind that I think amateur jockey's still aren't allowed to ride which would obviously rule Maxwell out.

We were a bit unlucky with Dutch Canyon who just happened to bump into a horse who clearly enjoyed the step up in trip having spent most of his career running over 2m. He beat the others easily enough as well and you would like to think we will get a chance to get our money back.
 
Onto Uttoxeter and I am really looking forward to seeing Monsieur Gibraltar back in action and going into handicap company at 3.10. He has been dominant in points and hunter chases since going to Rose Loxton and has put in some really impressive performances. A glance at his odds would suggest that he should be winning those races easily, but the way he has thrashed his rivals is really something. Also there are a couple of performances we can look at which suggests he can win a race off 138 especially at this time of year. At Kempton last year he ended up being sent off at 1/16 and beat Witness In Court by 16L, but was value for way more. Witness In Court won a hunter chase next time out and then won a handicap off 112 two start after that. That would strictly speaking put Monsieur Gibraltar at 128, but he was value for at least 10L more than that winning margin. The biggest pointer though was when he beat Risk A Fine at Wincanton. Just to remind you I was a huge fan of Risk A Fine last season and he was one of the horses of the last hunter chase season in my opinion. For Monsieur Gibraltar to brush him aside with ease was really impressive. Risk A Fine ended off his season by winning the handicap hunter chase at Stratford off 137 by 17L and is now rated 146. Granted that Stratford race was pretty weak, but it was a dominant performance as were his other two wins after the Wincanton 2nd. He had 1 start this year when bolting up in a point at 1/5 and then strangely had a wind op a few days later. He always wears a tongue-tie, but you would hardly say he ran like he needed a wind op. He was entered in the big race at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago and I think he would have had a real chance in that so dropping to this sort of level he looks to have an excellent chance.
The favourite Mercian Prince has been out of form over fences, but did win a novice hurdle at Bangor 11 days ago. The main advantage he has is that he has had a run otherwise I think Monsieur Gibraltar has the beating of him. If there is a danger then it could be Lovato who won over course and distance last September. He beat Asockastar that day who you may remember won us plenty of money last year. As much as he is a very likeable horse, he was running off 137 that day and if he was only getting a pound from Monsieur Gibraltar I wouldn't have him getting anywhere near him. 
For some reason Maxwell isn't riding tomorrow even though he was jocked up at the 6 day stage so Harry Cobden takes the ride and as much as I am no Maxwell basher that is clearly a massive plus especially as Maxwell won't have ridden since March.
The other pick runs an hour later and although it is impossible to be anywhere near as confident as I am about Monsieur Gibraltar, I have to have a bit on Cinevator at 33/1. Now he has got more P's in his recent form than numbers and that explains the price. Look he could easily have another P in his form after this race, but on his best pointing form he is thrown in off a mark of 73. He had two wins in 2018 and then last April he was only beaten a head in a reasonable enough Ladies Open. Granted he then pulled up on his next start, but if he puts in an effort like any of the 3 runs I have mentioned then he is no 33/1 shot. He clearly isn't one to go mad about and like I say he could pull up, but I am willing to throw a few quid in his direction at the odds.
Monsieur Gibraltar @ 4/1 with Bet365
Cinevator e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365
Just came to mind that I think amateur jockey's still aren't allowed to ride which would obviously rule Maxwell out.

Can’t believe he bumped into one who had spent most of his career running over 2m. Not much you can do about that given how easy he won. I’d imagine a trip to cartmel might well be on the cards for the 2nd

Can’t believe he bumped into one who had spent most of his career running over 2m. Not much you can do about that given how easy he won. I’d imagine a trip to cartmel might well be on the cards for the 2nd

The 7.30 at Perth is a really weak affair and as long as Dutch Canyon is fit and can dominate I think he can win. Obviously the first question I can't answer with any certainty, but he did win a maiden point first time out last season so we know he can win first up. After that he won a handicap off 75 at Hexham beating Prince Dundee who runs again here. He followed up at Cartmel when just holding on. His next start he was very disappointing, but he wasn't able to dominate and he then just sulked. That obviously brings me to the 2nd point and I do think he can dominate this race despite the big field. There doesn't appear to be a lot of other possible front runners so hopefully he does get an easy lead. He ran on the final weekend of pointing which was his only start this year and he was 2nd in soft ground which wouldn't have been ideal and it was certainly a performance which suggested that a mark of 83 was one he could win off. I think the 4/1-9/2 on offer is a fair price and hopefully he can make all.
Dutch Canyon @ 9/2 with Betfair or take the 4/1 BOG with Bet365 especially as it's one of their 4/1 free bet races.

The 7.30 at Perth is a really weak affair and as long as Dutch Canyon is fit and can dominate I think he can win. Obviously the first question I can't answer with any certainty, but he did win a maiden point first time out last season so we know he can win first up. After that he won a handicap off 75 at Hexham beating Prince Dundee who runs again here. He followed up at Cartmel when just holding on. His next start he was very disappointing, but he wasn't able to dominate and he then just sulked. That obviously brings me to the 2nd point and I do think he can dominate this race despite the big field. There doesn't appear to be a lot of other possible front runners so hopefully he does get an easy lead. He ran on the final weekend of pointing which was his only start this year and he was 2nd in soft ground which wouldn't have been ideal and it was certainly a performance which suggested that a mark of 83 was one he could win off. I think the 4/1-9/2 on offer is a fair price and hopefully he can make all.
Dutch Canyon @ 9/2 with Betfair or take the 4/1 BOG with Bet365 especially as it's one of their 4/1 free bet races.

Just the 2 winners on the flat on Saturday and although I got one on the Kensington track at Randwick there was a massive bias towards front runners so the ones I put up who were not on the speed had no chance. Onto the jumps action at Pakenham on Sunday morning and the are 6 races after the maiden hurdle divided 3 times! More proof that Australian jumps racing is in decent health at the moment. The going at the moment is a Soft 7 although there is rain expected so it might go into the Heavy range.
Race 1 (2.05am)
Here we have a few interesting hurdling newcomers with some who have shown good enough form to land a maiden hurdle. Beau Balmain is the favourite based on his flat form which is decent enough. He's trialled no more than OK though and I am happy enough to take him on as the favourite. Buffalo Bill has been solid enough in BM58's on the level and beat Beau Balmain in a slowly run trial. Peace Brother won a BM58 a couple of starts back so comes here in decent enough form. I am though going to favour those who have already been running over hurdles. I don't think Eyes Are Blue or Ross's Point are complete no hopers at their odds given they have shown fair form so far. The two though I am going to put up are First Crush and He's All White. First Crush was poor on his first hurdles run, but he was much improved last time when he went into BM120 company when 2nd to Woodsman. Granted he was beaten 7L, but it was a good effort no he goes back into maiden company. He's All White was a really good 2nd on his hurdles debut 2 weeks ago when beaten by a horse who deserved to lose his maiden tag. That form could well be good enough to land this. I will be splitting stakes on the pair.
He's All White @ 5/1 with Betfair
First Crush @ 15/2 with William Hill and Betfair
Race 2 (2.45am)
This is a pretty poor maiden hurdle and it is easy to see why Instigator is the slight odds on favourite on his hurdles debut. He has only won once in 21 starts on the level, but he's capable of decent form and he was 3rd in a Sandown BM78 beaten less than a length 11 days ago. He's trialled well and he has a great chance of making it a winning hurdling debut. I'm surprised Holburt is shorter in the market than Tony Two Chips given he was 2 places and a couple of lengths behind him last time. That was Holburt's 2nd hurdles start and Tony Two Chips' 1st so there is scope for there being more to come. The bets for me are a forecast play with Instigator to beat Tony Two Chips and a small saver on Tony Two Chips to win.
Instigator to beat Tony Two Chips
Tony Two Chips @ 5/1 with Bet365
Race 3 (3.25am)
We have another favourite who is making their hurdling debut here and Eckhart was 4th in a BM70 at Geelong in his last race last month. He's had a few trials over hurdles, but he's never been put under that much pressure so a race scenario will be very different and again I am happy to take on the market leader. Little Phoenix is certainly a player on his Casterton 2nd to Stanley where Tony Two Chips was 3rd. That was on a Soft 7 and chances are he hated the Heavy 10 at the Bool a couple of weeks ago as he was stuffed back in 3rd. It shouldn't be anywhere near that bad and that will help his chances. I have left him out though and am going to take two against the field. I liked Pachino Boy's hurdling debut at Casterton where he was 2nd to Britannicus and Tiger Tim was back in 3rd and he was the horse who won the race at the Bool that Little Phoenix was well beaten in. That form is certainly good enough to land this. I thought Infinite Reign was over priced. He may have only been 5th on his hurdles debut at Ballarat a month ago but he was only 5L behind Ventura Storm and that was a good race. You would expect improvement from that and a quicker surface will help as well.
Pachino Boy @ 14/5 with Bet365
Infinite Reign @ 13/2 with Bet365
Race 4 (4.05am)
The set weights in the feature hurdle on the card mean it favours those at the top of the weights as if it was a handicap they would have to be giving much more weight away to the likes of Bee Tee Junior who had a good win last time and looks a promising horse. Given that I do think it looks a match between the top two. We have Gobstopper who has had an incredible season winning every big hurdle race so far this term. He had to work very hard to beat Woodsman a couple of weeks ago, but he still pulled the win out of the fire. The top weight is New Zealand star Tallyho Twinkletoe. He has only been beaten once in 7 starts over hurdles and won the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown and the Grand National Chase at Ballarat last year. Those two races are the targets again this time around and he has prepped for this by a flat run and an easy hurdles win in his native country. That win came last Friday. This is clearly a tougher test and he will have to be at the top of his game to beat a hard fit Gobstopper, but he was so impressive last season that I think he can beat Gobstopper here.
Tallyho Twinkletoe @ 19/20 with Bet365
Race 5 (4.45am)
The Mosstrooper is the big race over fences and I must admit I thought it was between the Amy McDonald pair Shamal and Felix Bay. Getting Leggie should improve for the run last time where he was well beaten a couple of weeks ago. He won the Brierly at the May Carinval prior to that, but the form of the race hasn't really worked out. Slowpoke Rodriguez looks a bit of a dodge pot to me and he usually flatters to deceive and Killarney Kid is making his chase debut having been well beaten over hurdles a couple of weeks ago. He jump well in a trial in the week though. Shamal doesn't have a jockey as I type and I was a bit disappointed with his finishing effort a couple of weeks ago. He made a fast move down the back straight to bring himself into contention and he looked like he was going to play a big part in the finish, but he stopped pretty quickly and was only 5th. Maybe his win the week before had left a mark, but it was a bit disappointing nonetheless. The stable jockey has chosen Felix Bay and I was going to have a really decent bet on him when he was declared to run over fences last month only for him to be a non-runner. I was really impressed with his course and distance win in April when he beat Getting Leggie by 7L. He has had 2 starts on the level recently where he was 2nd at Casterton and 3rd at the Bool a week later. Those efforts clearly suggest he's in good heart and he just had a warm up in the same trial as Killarney Kid as he was always way behind the other runners.
Felix Bay @5/2 with William Hill
Race 6 (5.25am)
This BM120 Chase looks a match between Flying Agent and Michelin who have already raced against each other twice this season for a score of 1-1. Flying Agent's win came over hurdles at Sandown whereas Michelin won the maiden steeplechase at Ballarat last month. I thought Flying Agent got a bad ride that day as he was dropped out at the back and Michelin was further forward and in the bad ground Flying Agent couldn't quite get there. Hopefully he will be close to the speed and he made the running a couple of weeks ago at the Bool when coming home a 17L winner. I think Flying Agent can make it 2-1.
Flying Agent @ 6/4 with Bet365