Racing Chat - Thursday July 23rd

[BillyHills]

5 meetings

Richest handicap is the 250 at Pontefract

 

1pt  Watchable 17/2 betvictor
1pt  Cobra Eye 17/2 Hills

F/C Combo 1,4,6,7 (12 bets)

 

 

 

[Darran]

We were a bit unlucky with Dutch Canyon who just happened to bump into a horse who clearly enjoyed the step up in trip having spent most of his career running over 2m. He beat the others easily enough as well and you would like to think we will get a chance to get our money back.

 

Onto Uttoxeter and I am really looking forward to seeing Monsieur Gibraltar back in action and going into handicap company at 3.10. He has been dominant in points and hunter chases since going to Rose Loxton and has put in some really impressive performances. A glance at his odds would suggest that he should be winning those races easily, but the way he has thrashed his rivals is really something. Also there are a couple of performances we can look at which suggests he can win a race off 138 especially at this time of year. At Kempton last year he ended up being sent off at 1/16 and beat Witness In Court by 16L, but was value for way more. Witness In Court won a hunter chase next time out and then won a handicap off 112 two start after that. That would strictly speaking put Monsieur Gibraltar at 128, but he was value for at least 10L more than that winning margin. The biggest pointer though was when he beat Risk A Fine at Wincanton. Just to remind you I was a huge fan of Risk A Fine last season and he was one of the horses of the last hunter chase season in my opinion. For Monsieur Gibraltar to brush him aside with ease was really impressive. Risk A Fine ended off his season by winning the handicap hunter chase at Stratford off 137 by 17L and is now rated 146. Granted that Stratford race was pretty weak, but it was a dominant performance as were his other two wins after the Wincanton 2nd. He had 1 start this year when bolting up in a point at 1/5 and then strangely had a wind op a few days later. He always wears a tongue-tie, but you would hardly say he ran like he needed a wind op. He was entered in the big race at Market Rasen a couple of weeks ago and I think he would have had a real chance in that so dropping to this sort of level he looks to have an excellent chance.

The favourite Mercian Prince has been out of form over fences, but did win a novice hurdle at Bangor 11 days ago. The main advantage he has is that he has had a run otherwise I think Monsieur Gibraltar has the beating of him. If there is a danger then it could be Lovato who won over course and distance last September. He beat Asockastar that day who you may remember won us plenty of money last year. As much as he is a very likeable horse, he was running off 137 that day and if he was only getting a pound from Monsieur Gibraltar I wouldn't have him getting anywhere near him. 

For some reason Maxwell isn't riding tomorrow even though he was jocked up at the 6 day stage so Harry Cobden takes the ride and as much as I am no Maxwell basher that is clearly a massive plus especially as Maxwell won't have ridden since March.

The other pick runs an hour later and although it is impossible to be anywhere near as confident as I am about Monsieur Gibraltar, I have to have a bit on Cinevator at 33/1. Now he has got more P's in his recent form than numbers and that explains the price. Look he could easily have another P in his form after this race, but on his best pointing form he is thrown in off a mark of 73. He had two wins in 2018 and then last April he was only beaten a head in a reasonable enough Ladies Open. Granted he then pulled up on his next start, but if he puts in an effort like any of the 3 runs I have mentioned then he is no 33/1 shot. He clearly isn't one to go mad about and like I say he could pull up, but I am willing to throw a few quid in his direction at the odds.

Monsieur Gibraltar @ 4/1 with Bet365

Cinevator e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365

Just came to mind that I think amateur jockey's still aren't allowed to ride which would obviously rule Maxwell out.

[black rabbit]

Epic Endeavour  1 pt win  @ 10.75 betfair 

 

 

P/L Account  + 117.25 pts

[Trotter]

I've been looking at a few of today's races and a common dilemma has cropped up whereby you've eliminated most of the horses but you're left with two and can't really separate them. You look at the form, todays' race conditions, all the usual factors and when it comes down to it the only thing differentiating them is the price ....... one will be a shorter price than the other and there doesn't seem to be any real reason as to which one it is

So on that basis pick the biggest price of the two

So today's selections ... 

2.10 Uttox - Young Wolf 9/4
3.20 Ponty - Wadisafa 11/4
7.00 Sand - Arthurian Fable 7/2

prices bet365

The 'other' horses in each race are the 3 favourites - Dark Vision, Minella Warrior and Indigo Lake

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today.  Had loads to go through.  Avoided the really short priced favourites but still no Jackpot if my selections win

12.35 Uttx Hunting Percival 15/8 (£2 win at 2/1)
2.40 Uttx Get Back Get Back 11/5
3.10 Uttx Mercian Prince 11/4
One £1 win Trixie = Poss Return of £66.48

Singles bets:

5.00 Ponte Highway Grey £1 win at 5/1

50p Bets

3.10 Uttx Scoop The Pot 50p ew 25/1
2.40 Uttx Dream Machine 50p ew at 16/1
3.40 Uttx Mystic court 50p Win at 14/1
3.40 Uttx Yes No Maybe So 50p win at 14/1
1.10 Uttx Lamh At Lamh 50p ew at 12/1
1.50 Pont Hoof's Happy Now 50p ew at 12/1
2.20 Pont Sheepscar Lad 50p ew at 12/1
5.00 Pont Salsada 50p ew at 12/1
5.35 Pont Aiya 50p ew at 33/1

Multiples = £4

Singles = £11

Total stakes £15

What a pity that Mercian Prince got beat; I would have received £85.  Intsead I had to settle for a double of £14.  This meant a profit on multiples today of £10.00

My multiples balance C/Fwd is now £645.83 (Bank £800)

Three singles win bets and one placed bet. The returns were £21.10 hence a profit of £10.10 on the day.

My Singles balance C/Fwd is £358.79 (Bank £400)

The 50p bets amounted to a return of £7.10 from £8.00 stakes which was a loss of £0.90p.  The balance C/fwd is a staggering 35p profit

Looks to be about 11 races tomorrow class 4 to class 2, most quality in the evening.  We shall see.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update