Racing Chat - Sunday Aug 2nd

[BillyHills]

Richest race is at Galway

420 Galway

 

1pt EW Laughifuwant 14/1 PP (First 5)
1pt win Nord 7/2 betfair

2,5,6 Comb F/C

Others
1200 San: King Robert 5/1 Hills
225 New: Danzeno 9/2 bet365
325 New: Whats The Story EW 10/1 bet365
355 San: Thai Power 11/4 bet365

 

 

[Darran]

Some top quality jumping action at Sandown in the early hours of the morning with the Grand National Hurdle and the Crips Steeplechase. Here are my thoughts on the 3 jumps races.

Race 1 (2.55am)

A cracking BM120 hurdle here which looks competitive.

Northern Voyage - On last seasons 3 hurdles runs he would have a great chance here and it was as solid 2nd on his first run this year in March, but he clearly wasn't right on his next start at Pakenham in April as he wasn't seen until two trials last month. He has the form to win, but he looks really short in the betting so happy to take him on.

Riding High - 2/2 over hurdles and one a good one of these at the Bool in May. Not seen over hurdles since and his two recent flat runs weren't great. Has a chance if able to show the form he did earlier in the season.

San Remo - Has looked good in both hurdle starts winning a strong maiden hurdle in June and then last month just being beaten by Bee Tee Junior which is also strong form. Was back on the flat at Flemington last time and ran as well as could be expected in a good race. Both hurdle wins were on Heavy 10's, but the quicker ground shouldn't be a worry for him as he's won on good on the flat. Big player for me.

The Statesman - Feels odd to write about a maiden hurdle at Ludlow, but that is The Statesman only run over hurdles and he bolted up. He used to be trained by Ian Williams before coming to Australia and that win probably would give him a chance in a race like this, but his flat form has tailed off a bit and his hurdle trials haven't told us much. That hurdle win was on good to firm though and I just wonder if he really wants a bit of cut in the ground. Adds intrigue to the race for sure.

Wolfe Tone - Was really impressive at Pakenham on his hurdles debut and he had the right 2 in 2nd and 3rd that day. Based on that he has to have a chance in this if progressing again.

Animator - Another slight unknown as his two hurdles runs were in New Zealand. Impressively won the first of them before failing to finish a year ago. Flat form is OK, but will be a good effort to win this on his first hurdles start in a year.

Instigator - Should really have won last time, but 1 win in 28 starts tells a story. He clearly has a good bit of ability, but getting him to finish in 1st is tough and he's up in grade here as well. Seems short in the betting.

Summary - Those above look the possible winners in my view. San Remo looks a massive price to me at 9/1. I just don't understand how he is so big given his form looks really strong and he comes here in good form. Most of the others have question marks about them as much as they have the form capable of landing this, but I do think his form is as good as those shorter in the market anyway and in some cases he betters them. I will also have a saver on Wolfe Tone because I was really taken with him at Pakenham.

San Remo e/w @ 9/1 with Betfred

Wolfe Tone @ 16/5 with Betfair

Race 2 (3.35am)

The Grand National Hurdle might have 8 runners, but only 4 will count and apparently we might see one of these running at Aintree next year!

Tallyho Twinkletoe - Won this last year and is 9/10 over hurdles and fences in New Zealand and Australia. Only just beat Bee Tee Junior last time and had to survive a protest, but I think he will come on for that run especially as his previous run in New Zealand had only been 9 days previously in a race that was only run over 2400m. Last time it was 3500m and that will have got him match fit going back up to 4200m. Bee Tee Junior is better off at the weights here and he does have to give 4kgs to Ablaze, but he is the one they have to beat.

Gobstopper - Had been winning all the feature hurdles this season until he was only 3rd behind Tallyho last time. If he won it wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world, but clearly he needs to step up on that Pakenham effort.

Ablaze - 2/2 over hurdles and 2/2 over fences. He was superb in winning the Grand Annual in May and apparently he is being aimed at the Grand National at Aintree next year. He was poor on the flat at Rosehill last time, but that race turned into a sprint and it just didn't suit him. He does get 4kgs from the top one, but I just wonder if the lack of a recent run over hurdles and the fact he's had a month off the track might just tip the balance in Tallyho's favour.

Bee Tee Junior - So close to beating the top one last time and as I mention above is better off at the weights here, but I do think Tallyho has more to come. The distance is an unknown, but he looks like he will stay and he isn't out of this.

Summary - A cracking race and I am really looking forward to it. Bee Tee Junior is progressive and could upset the top 2 in the betting, but to me the winner is likely to be Ablaze or Tallyho Twinkletoe. It is the New Zealand horse I am going with though as he should improve for the Pakenham run and he was so good last year.

Tallyho Twinkletoe @ 6/5 with Betfred

Race 3 (4.15am)

Speaking of the Grand National this is named after the great Crisp. Shamal has been really disappointing in two starts since his win and I have to leave him alone here on the back of those efforts. The Dominator lived up to his name at Pakenham when putting in a superb front running performance to beat a useful field in a BM120. He steps up in trip by 1000m and the furthest he's won over is 3600m. This is a stiff course as well and nothing like the flat Pakenham so I find it hard to see him being able to do the same as he did last time here. I put up Felix Bay last time at Pakenham when he was 3rd to Slowpoke Rodriguez. He was left with too much to do although he does have to be ridden quietly, but the tactics were overdone. The step up in trip is going to suit and he will probably come on for that run as well. He also meets him 4kgs better than at Pakenham for a 2L defeat. Anything other than those 4 would be a surprise and it is Felix Bay for me.

Felix Bay @ 2/1 with everyone

[calva decoy]

I always like the look of trainers who over a 5 year period are trading at + £100 LSP step forward Ben Haslam who at Newcastle has a 13.65% win strike rate over last 5 years but a + LSP of £109.46 he runs one here today

3.25 SANDRET 12/1 bet365 have done each way , should benefit from drop back from 12f to today's 10f , is a course winner & has won at the distance.

[LEE-GRAYS]

going to give uk and irish racing a miss most of this month was doing well when we only had french and usa racing will do 1 french meeting a day and 1 usa meeting which is already on usa racing racing forum 

there is some irish and uk intrest in france today i had to do j murtagh horse

Deaville

1.00 kennella 8/1 lost

1.35 prince lancelot 11/2 lost

2.15 amirvann 16/1 lost

2.50 know it all 11/2 lost

3.25 well of wisdom 4/1  won

4.00 iamarock 15/2 won

4.35 chasing gold 14/1 lost

5.10 midgrey 18/1 lost

5.45 nathaniella 16/1

all bets 25p e/w for now see how we go bet365

Edited August 3, 2020 by LEE-GRAYS

[black rabbit]

Formality  2 2o san   1pt  win @  9.85  @ betfair 

 

 

P/L Account =  + 98.75  pts

[The Equaliser]

I'm using a claimed £5 Accumulator bonus on Sportsbook for my 6 Double and 4 trebles today so a £6 bet is costing me £1

2.25 Nc Glen Shield 2/1 (£2 win at 3.3 = £4.37)
2.55 Nc Galatia 4/9
3.40 Leic Purdys Gift 7/4 (£2 win at 7/4)
4.10 Leic Musicality 6/5
6 doubles at 80p = £4.80 = poss return £14.50
4 trebles at 30p = £1.20 = poss return of £25.91

A Trixie for £1 = £4 poss return £157.00
3.25 Nc Derk Jedi £1 win at 6/1
3.10 Leic Anjah 15/4 (£2 win at 5.2 = £7.98)
3.40 Leic Purdy's Gift (£2 win at 7/4 = £3.50)

Other win bets

2.25 Nc Volatile Ananlyst 50p ew at 22/1
3.25 Nc Cockalorium £1 win at 9/1
3.10 Leic Phucket Power 50p win at 14/1
3.40 Leic The Dancing Poet £2 win at 10/3 = £6.66

Multiple bets = £10 (using SB £5 bonus)

Singles = £13.50

= Total stake today £23.50

I haven't been able to research Lay bet yet and this will have to wait until later after lunch and liquid refreshment

Funny thing about using bet credits when one doesn't get the stake money back.  If you back something each way you need a 10/1 winner to get your money back instead of a 5/1 winner!!!!!

Not a great day.  Musicality came 2nd so I only got back £4.28 for my multiple bet (lucky I used the £5 bonus on sportsbook).  The Trixie completely bombed.  Hence a loss on multiples of £5.72.  The balance C/fwd is £623.84 (£800 Bank).

The singles took a hit too.  £13.50 laid out and only £4.37 return (BOG would have been better).  Hence a loss on the day of £9.13.  The balance C/Fwd is £327.49 (Bank £400)

There is a class 2 race at Haydock tomorrow and a couple of class 3's at Windsor tomorrow night.  Other than that I will have to make the numbers up with a few class 4 evnts

 

 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[The Equaliser]

Does anyone know if I can do multiple bets with Bet365; cant seem to see the option?

 

[The Equaliser]

Just one lay bet today.

3.55 San Thai Power £2.11 @ 2.10 = £2.32 liability

This horse finished 2nd by an uncomfortable 3/4 length.  Anyway I did collect £2

The balance c/fwd is now +£0.96

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by The Equaliser
Result Update

[The Equaliser]

ROBBED on a stewards enquiry in the 3.20 at Sandown

I had a win bet on Andaleep that won the race by a nose.  The result has been changed by the stewards

I don't care if it bumped the second horse.  The fact is that it won and I should have got paid out.

By all means penalise the jockey and/or take the prize money away from the owners BUT don't penalise us punters when we have a winner

DISGUSTING

I have just been told by way of a double result notification from Bet365 that they have paid me out.  At least there is some justice in the world.  Don't know who pays "First Past The Post"?

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by The Equaliser
I have been paid out

[yossa6133]

Unlucky The Equaliser, but not sure they could do that as they would have to pay out of the winner as well.

[Darran]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

ROBBED on a stewards enquiry in the 3.20 at Sandown

I had a win bet on Andaleep that won the race by a nose.  The result has been changed by the stewards

I don't care if it bumped the second horse.  The fact is that it won and I should have got paid out.

By all means penalise the jockey and/or take the prize money away from the owners BUT don't penalise us punters when we have a winner

DISGUSTING

I have just been told by way of a double result notification from Bet365 that they have paid me out.  At least there is some justice in the world.  Don't know who pays "First Past The Post"?

 

Most bookies pay out on the double result in these circumstances, but that is a concession that they don't have to do. The stewards deemed that your horse wouldn't have won if it hadn't bumped the 2nd and that's why they changed the places. Those are the rules and whilst it is frustrating that is racing at the end of the day.

[The Equaliser]

51 minutes ago, Darran said:

Most bookies pay out on the double result in these circumstances, but that is a concession that they don't have to do. The stewards deemed that your horse wouldn't have won if it hadn't bumped the 2nd and that's why they changed the places. Those are the rules and whilst it is frustrating that is racing at the end of the day.

I appreciate that this is the rules, however, I can't see why we can't have an option on the betting sites to settle for first past the post if we want to.  As you say my stars must have come into focus for the Bet365 offer.  And, as you have hinted they could change policy any time that they want to 

[BillyHills]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Does anyone know if I can do multiple bets with Bet365; cant seem to see the option?

 

Is this a serious question?? Does a bookie do multiple bets??

How do you think they make money from Mug Punters

If it is serious then its at the bottom of your bet slip 

eg:bet

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

Is this a serious question?? Does a bookie do multiple bets??

How do you think they make money from Mug Punters

If it is serious then its at the bottom of your bet slip 

eg:bet

Haha, I'm new to the site and couldn't see it.  So I just have to keep adding selections to the bet slip and then get the doubles and trebles options.  It is just that I will need this when I desert Sportsbook and hopefully can still get BOG on Bet365 multiples as I won't be able to do so on Sportsbook as I am opting for 2% commission with my bets on Betfair Exchange.

I knew it was a stupid question but, as you can see, I needed an answer.

Very many thanks from one who is not so technically minded ?

 

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by The Equaliser
Clarification

[Darran]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I appreciate that this is the rules, however, I can't see why we can't have an option on the betting sites to settle for first past the post if we want to.  As you say my stars must have come into focus for the Bet365 offer.  And, as you have hinted they could change policy any time that they want to 

That will never happen and the first pass the post only settles if there is interference. If a horse take the wrong course or weighs in light then you won't get paid out unless your very lucky. At the end of the day your horse didn't win the race because he won by cheating. You mention you want 2% commission on Betfair and you certainly wont get first pass the post on there. 

[The Equaliser]

36 minutes ago, Darran said:

That will never happen and the first pass the post only settles if there is interference. If a horse take the wrong course or weighs in light then you won't get paid out unless your very lucky. At the end of the day your horse didn't win the race because he won by cheating. You mention you want 2% commission on Betfair and you certainly wont get first pass the post on there. 

All I meant was that if the bookies can set up instant bonuses etc for individuals why can't they set up an option for customers to accept either "first past the post" or "final result if amended" In that way punters like me will be happy to forgo a payout on an amended result in my favour if I can get paid out if the horse passes the post first (because of some kind of interference).  In the event of a horse taking the wrong course or weighing in at the wrong weight it just gets disqualified so I wouldn't expect to be paid.

I don't just want 2% commission on my Betfair Exchange transactions I will get it.  I know that Betfair just follows the rules of racing and that they will never pay me out first past the post.  I will be using Betfair mainly for my "Lay" bets.  Sometimes I use them for win bets when the odds are much better than the largest odds on offer from the bookies.

Hope this explains things a bit better.

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

23 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

going to give uk and irish racing a miss most of this month was doing well when we only had french and usa racing will do 1 french meeting a day and 1 usa meeting which is already on usa racing racing forum 

there is some irish and uk intrest in france today i had to do j murtagh horse

Deaville

1.00 kennella 8/1 lost

1.35 prince lancelot 11/2 lost

2.15 amirvann 16/1 lost

2.50 know it all 11/2 lost

3.25 well of wisdom 4/1  won

4.00 iamarock 15/2 won

4.35 chasing gold 14/1 lost

5.10 midgrey 18/1 lost

5.45 nathaniella 16/1

all bets 25p e/w for now see how we go bet365

 2 winners so evens for day 

out £4.50

in £4.50

overall +£0.00 after 9 races 

[Darran]

13 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

All I meant was that if the bookies can set up instant bonuses etc for individuals why can't they set up an option for customers to accept either "first past the post" or "final result if amended" In that way punters like me will be happy to forgo a payout on an amended result in my favour if I can get paid out if the horse passes the post first (because of some kind of interference).  In the event of a horse taking the wrong course or weighing in at the wrong weight it just gets disqualified so I wouldn't expect to be paid.

I don't just want 2% commission on my Betfair Exchange transactions I will get it.  I know that Betfair just follows the rules of racing and that they will never pay me out first past the post.  I will be using Betfair mainly for my "Lay" bets.  Sometimes I use them for win bets when the odds are much better than the largest odds on offer from the bookies.

Hope this explains things a bit better.

 

But your horse was disqualified yesterday no different from it taking the wrong course or weighing in light. I’m really struggling to understand why you can’t grasp that. Without the interference your horse wouldn’t have won the race so he was disqualified.

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, Darran said:

But your horse was disqualified yesterday no different from it taking the wrong course or weighing in light. I’m really struggling to understand why you can’t grasp that. Without the interference your horse wouldn’t have won the race so he was disqualified.

Well sir, If you like watching football how many times does a missed goal turn on something that may or may not have been supposedly right to happen.  As I have said before, penalise the jockey, penalise the owners and take away their prize money but DON'T change the result from a punters perspective.  It won the race and I should be paid out. Simple as that.  A horse taking a wrong course or a jockey not carrying the right weight is totally different in my eyes.  Also, as I said, it should not make a hoot of difference if I was able to opt in to "first the post" and forgo a return on an amended result  One man's meat and all that.  I am glad that you are happy to accept all this; I never will. In any case how do you know for certain that the promoted horse would have won had it not been bumped.  Nobody knows.

Edited August 3, 2020 by The Equaliser
update

[Darran]

19 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Well sir, If you like watching football how many times does a missed goal turn on something that may or may not have been supposedly right to happen.  As I have said before, penalise the jockey, penalise the owners and take away their prize money but DON'T change the result from a punters perspective.  It won the race and I should be paid out. Simple as that.  A horse taking a wrong course or a jockey not carrying the right weight is totally different in my eyes.  Also, as I said, it should not make a hoot of difference if I was able to opt in to "first the post" and forgo a return on an amended result  One man's meat and all that.  I am glad that you are happy to accept all this; I never will. In any case how do you know for certain that the promoted horse would have won had it not been bumped.  Nobody knows.

That’s what the rules are. If the stewards believe the 2nd horse would have won they change the result. Racing’s been like that for years and you are the first person I have ever seen complain about it which is just bizarre.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Darran said:

That’s what the rules are. If the stewards believe the 2nd horse would have won they change the result. Racing’s been like that for years and you are the first person I have ever seen complain about it which is just bizarre.

I like to be a gamechanger.  You cannot know that my horse would not have won? That's point

 

 

[MCLARKE]

It happens every now and again. The fact that some bookmakers pay out on the winner and the disqualified horse means that punters overall benefit from this.