Darran

It is day 1 of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington and there are 4 G1's on the card as well as the Hotham which will see the winner get a place in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Meanwhile at Rosehill it is the Golden Eagle where the winner gets £2.7m! I have bets in 7 races on the two cards.
Flemington R1 (12.40am)
With the clocks changing it means the 1st race is at a watchable time here in the UK and I like the look of the favourite Aysar. He was 2nd in the Caulfield Guineas last time which for me is easily the best form in the contest especially as the 1st two pulled clear of the rest. If he repeats that then he should be winning this.
Aysar 11/10 with William Hill
Flemington R3 (2am)
I thought Banquo looked the value here. He ran well over course and distance last month when finishing 2nd and then up to G1 company over 1400m he ran a good enough 7th behind Behemoth. He was also 5th in the G1 Newmarket over course and distance in March so is well suited by the straight 1200m and he has the form to win this.
Banquo @ 5/1 with Betfair
Flemington R4 (2.40am)
The final chance for a horse to get into the Melbourne Cup and I think Future Score can be the one to get that spot. He did us a good turn at 20/1 when winning the Cranbourne Cup last time and he was impressive in victory. Up to 2500m will suit and 3rd up he should come on again. He looks progressive still based on the Cranbourne win and he holds decent claims for me.
Future Score @ 6/1 with Bet365
Flemington R6 (4am)
I like two in the G1 Cooolmore Stud Stakes. September Run has been flying this prep and has looked really good winning over 1100m here the last twice. She won her maiden over this trip so that shouldn't be a concern and although she is up in class from Listed company to a G1 I think she is up to it.
Anders is the other one I like as he looked to be a possible superstar up in Sydney back in August. Things didn't go to plan at Caulfield, but it was in a 3 runner race so that was easily forgivable. If he bounces back to the form he showed in Sydney he is a massive player.
September Run 3/1 with Bet365
Anders @ 9/1 with Betfair
Rosehill R6 (4.25am)
It looks set to be testing ground in Sydney as it has been very wet up there this week. That means Wu Gok is a player in the Rosehill Gold Cup. He grows a leg on heavy ground as he showed last prep. He has been running OK in races above his class so far this prep and this looks much more suitable. The Candy Man is 4/4 in heavy ground and he suffered a messy race last time.so we can forgive him that. Some of the leading fancies are unproven on a heavy track so I am happy to take those two against the field.
Wu Gok @ 9/2 with William Hill
The Candy Man @ 7/1 with Bet365
Rosehill R7 (5.10am)
This race is named after last year's Everest winner and Gytrash is a warm order having finished a good 3rd in that contest this year. The problem is he hasn't been over 1300m before and in testing ground I wonder if it might just be too far for him. I thought Haut Brion Her ran really well at a big price in the Everest and she has won a G2 over 1400m so the trip is fine. She is unraced on heavy ground, but is 2/2 on soft ground. She is trained by Chris Waller who trained Yes Yes Yes and he also runs Star Of The Seas who looks over priced to me. He didn't look to stay 2000m last time and although he is coming back to 1300m he actually has really good stats having not finished out of the frame in 5 starts over the trip. He is 4/6 at the track and is 3/4 on heavy ground, finishing 2nd on the other starts. I reckon he has solid place claims at the very least and looks a big price.
Haut Brion Her @ 9/2 with Bet365
Star Of The Seas e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill
Rosehill R9 (6.25am)
A competitive race to close the card, but I am going to have a big e/w on Greek Hero. He went into my notebook last time when he finished 4th at Randwick in June. He race on the worst part of the track that day as he stayed on the inside rail whereas the place to be was on the stand side rail that day. The former UK horse won on his first start here and although he has never won over a trip this short I think he could especially on a heavy track.
Greek Hero e/w @ 8/1 with William Hill
 

4.10 Taunton I am really pleased to see they are going handicapping with Earth Leader because I really do think he is very well handicapped off a mark of 117. I don't know if this was always the plan or if things changed after the sad death of his former trainer, but he is now with Harry Fry. To be fair he can still go hunter chasing and I would have given him a big chance at Aintree in April if Covid hadn't stopped racing. I'd ignore his last run as to me he didn't stay as well as the winner in the heavy ground and he travelled just as well as Virak up until his stamina gave weigh. I'd probably have liked to have seen him over 2m6f, but just under 3m should be fine. The weather is a bigger concern as rain is forecast, but the ground is good to firm, good in places so it would need a lot to make it totally bottomless and I suspect they would pull him out if it did get too testing. The bookies haven't missed him sadly, but if I am right about him being as good as I think he is then he ought to win this if he is ready 1st up.    I am also going to cover Dido e/w. I put him up a couple of times over the summer and he landed the e/w money both times. They dropped him down in trip to 2m last time and he didn't have the pace at the end of the race. Despite him winning over 3m in points I always thought he needed shorter, but the way he is running suggests he needs this sort of trip to be seen at his best. Chances are he is bumping into one here, but if Earth Leader needs the run then Dido is well enough handicapped to win. He also wouldn't want a lot of rain.   Earth Leader @ 11/4 with Bet365 Dido e/w @ 10/1 with BetVictor

4.10 Taunton I am really pleased to see they are going handicapping with Earth Leader because I really do think he is very well handicapped off a mark of 117. I don't know if this was always the plan or if things changed after the sad death of his former trainer, but he is now with Harry Fry. To be fair he can still go hunter chasing and I would have given him a big chance at Aintree in April if Covid hadn't stopped racing. I'd ignore his last run as to me he didn't stay as well as the winner in the heavy ground and he travelled just as well as Virak up until his stamina gave weigh. I'd probably have liked to have seen him over 2m6f, but just under 3m should be fine. The weather is a bigger concern as rain is forecast, but the ground is good to firm, good in places so it would need a lot to make it totally bottomless and I suspect they would pull him out if it did get too testing. The bookies haven't missed him sadly, but if I am right about him being as good as I think he is then he ought to win this if he is ready 1st up.    I am also going to cover Dido e/w. I put him up a couple of times over the summer and he landed the e/w money both times. They dropped him down in trip to 2m last time and he didn't have the pace at the end of the race. Despite him winning over 3m in points I always thought he needed shorter, but the way he is running suggests he needs this sort of trip to be seen at his best. Chances are he is bumping into one here, but if Earth Leader needs the run then Dido is well enough handicapped to win. He also wouldn't want a lot of rain.   Earth Leader @ 11/4 with Bet365 Dido e/w @ 10/1 with BetVictor

4.10 Taunton I am really pleased to see they are going handicapping with Earth Leader because I really do think he is very well handicapped off a mark of 117. I don't know if this was always the plan or if things changed after the sad death of his former trainer, but he is now with Harry Fry. To be fair he can still go hunter chasing and I would have given him a big chance at Aintree in April if Covid hadn't stopped racing. I'd ignore his last run as to me he didn't stay as well as the winner in the heavy ground and he travelled just as well as Virak up until his stamina gave weigh. I'd probably have liked to have seen him over 2m6f, but just under 3m should be fine. The weather is a bigger concern as rain is forecast, but the ground is good to firm, good in places so it would need a lot to make it totally bottomless and I suspect they would pull him out if it did get too testing. The bookies haven't missed him sadly, but if I am right about him being as good as I think he is then he ought to win this if he is ready 1st up.    I am also going to cover Dido e/w. I put him up a couple of times over the summer and he landed the e/w money both times. They dropped him down in trip to 2m last time and he didn't have the pace at the end of the race. Despite him winning over 3m in points I always thought he needed shorter, but the way he is running suggests he needs this sort of trip to be seen at his best. Chances are he is bumping into one here, but if Earth Leader needs the run then Dido is well enough handicapped to win. He also wouldn't want a lot of rain.   Earth Leader @ 11/4 with Bet365 Dido e/w @ 10/1 with BetVictor

Saturday morning sees the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. It looks a fascinating renewal and one I think will go to the home team. Other bets for Saturday will be posted later today.   Kodling - Had lost his way, but has been back in form this prep having won the G1 George Main and the G2 Hill Stakes the last twice.  He proved he stays 2000m last time and he was 2L in front of Avilius who ran well in the Caulfield Cup last week. Has a chance and wont mind if the rain hits and we get into the Soft range.   Humidor - The horse who pushed Winx very close in 2017 and was then 3rd the following year. He looked like he had lost his way, but Chris Waller has completely turned his form around. Was a shock winner here over 1600m on his 1st runthis prep and then split Russian Camelot and Arcadia Queen in the Underwood at Caulfield. Was behind those 2 when 3rd last time in the Caulfield Stakes, but I suspect the race wasn't run to suit. His jockey Craig Williams was very bullish about him when he worked at the track earlier in the week and he clearly loves The Valley. If he hadn't been drawn in 14 I would have put him up as an e/w chance, but I reckon he outruns his odds.   Fierce Impact - A very consistent horse who beat Russian Camelot over 1600m at Flemington in the Makybe Diva Stakes. He was then 3rd to Kolding in the Hill Stakes. He handles a wet track, but his form over 2000m isn't as strong as others which is enough to put me off.   Master Of Wine - Just 10th in the Caulfield Cup last week and it is hard to see him playing a part here.   Mugatoo - Has shown massive progression since coming over from the UK and was very good this prep winning 3 on the bounce and then finished 2nd in The Met at Randwick last time. I'm surprised they didn't go to the Caulfield Cup with him as he looked a big player to me in that, but he was well behind Verry Elleegant in his only WFA G1 in the Tancred Stakes and that suggests he has a bit too find here.   Aspetar - Is a hold up horse so his draw of 3 doesn't actually do him too many favours. He seems an odd choice for this race to me given his hold up style and he is going to a need a fair bit of luck in running from the inside. Most of his form is over 2400m, but did win the York Stakes last time. He won easily although it wasn't a strong race. It is a shame he had to miss the Juddmonte International as it would have given us a better idea of how good he is, but since December he's only had two runs both coming in July and that concerns me as well.   Sir Dragonet - Has finished 2nd on all 4 starts this season although his 2nd to Magical last time obviously reads well enough. Hasn't won since his Chester Vase win when he made it 2/2 although he did go on to go off 11/4f for the Derby when he was 5th. It will be interesting if new connections ride him differently as surely his hold up style isn't going to be a plus here. Cut in the ground does suit though.   Magic Wand - Scratched   Arcadia Queen - Went off favourite for the Everest last year, but out to this trip last time beat Russian Camelot in the Caulfield Stakes. That was a really good performance, but it was a bit of a sit and sprint contest and this won't be. There is a doubt about her on soft ground as well if the rain hits. I just think if this race is run at a true tempo she might struggle to see it out as well as others especially if we see a Soft 6.   Nettoyer - Loves eating pizza and got stuck into one after winning the G1 Doncaster at huge odds in the Autumn. Was 2nd in a G3 last time and her form isn't good enough for this.    Russian Camelot - Looked superb when winning the South Australian Derby in May and returned this prep with a very good 2nd over 1600m to Fierce Impact at Flemington in September. I loved the way he hit the line that day and he duly won the Underwood in good style at Caulfield on his next start. Was beaten at 2/5 in the Caulfield Stakes by Arcadia Queen, but the way that race was run would not have suited and this race will surely be run at a stronger tempo. The draw looks horrific on paper, but I just wonder if sitting on the outside of runners rather than trapped on the inside might help him and he should get a clearer run than some of his rivals. Rain will be an added plus as well.   Armory - Looks the pick of the UK & Irish runners having won a G3 over this trip at the Curragh and then finishing a 2L 3rd to Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes. He had been 4th in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the start of the season as well. If he can back up the run at Leopardstown or even improve on it then he is a big danger to the locals.   Probabeel - She was going to be my pick for the Epsom last time until she got a shocking draw and it put me off. McEvoy gave her a peach of a ride though and she was an impressive winner. She has finished in the top 2 in 14 of her 18 starts and McEovy has a great record on her. She has only run over this distance once when finishing 2nd in a G1 back in March, but she is drawn in 2 and I think she will be able to sit handy behind the speed and could well get first run on those needing to come from behind. She has form on a wet track so that should hold no fears and she has a big chance.   Grandslam - God knows what he is even doing in the race given 2 starts back he was beaten in a BM64 at Flemington. He was 3rd at a massive price in the Caulfield Guineas last time and he will likely set the pace, but he is a doubtful stayer and shouldn't be good enough.   Buckhurst - Surprising he didn't get a place in the race to start with, but gets in with Magic Wand coming out. Didn't run too badly in the Caulfield Cup last week and I reckon this trip suits him better. Not sure he's good enough to win, but he should run well enough.   Verdict - I am going to go with Russian Camelot here. I think he is better than he was able to show behind Arcadia Queen last time and he should get a stronger gallop here which is what he needs over this trip. I am also going to cover Probabeel who is so consistent and looks to be drawn to get the perfect run. Armory can be best of the UK & Irish runners and Humidor is can out run his odds at his favourite venue.   Russian Camelot @ 4/1 with William Hill Probabeel @ 17/2 with Betfair

Moonee Valley R6 (4.15am)
Young Werther looks a decent bet here. He has to reverse form with Khoekhoe from Flemington last time, but I think he will as he was unlucky not to win that day. He wasn't able to get going until 150m out and e flew home to clock the fastest last 200m in the race. His debut win at Geelong was good and with a good draw in 4 he looks the one to beat.
Young Werther @ 5/4 with William Hill
Moonee Valley R7 (4.50am)
Ex French horse Olmedo looks worth going with here. He had good form in France including finishing 2nd to The Revenant in a G2 at Longchamp on Arc weekend last year. He has only been seen once since and that was in a G2 at Rosehill in March where he faded out of it late in testing ground. He's better than that and if able to show his best 1st up I think he can land this for Chris Waller.
Olmedo @ 5/1 with Bet365
Moonee Valley R8 (5.30am)
Selino is interesting on his first start since finishing 2nd in the Doncaster Cup last month, but I just wonder if he will find this too sharp a test. Instead I will give his stablemate, Shared Ambition, one more chance. I thought he ran well enough last time when I put him up to go with him again over a trip he wants. A bit of cut in the ground would suit as well. I am also going with Gallic Chieftain who just missed landing the place money when 4th in the Herbert Power last time. Chapada won that contest and he ran well enough in the Caulfield Cup last week to give the form a boost. He is a course and distance winner and also doesn't mind if we see plenty of rain.
Shared Ambition @ 11/4 with William Hill
Gallic Chieftain @ 14/1 with William Hill
Randwick R3 (4am)
Just the one bet for me up in Sydney and that is Godolphin's Destination. He was 2nd in a Listed Race over 1100m at Rosehill last month and that form looks strong given the winner has won since. He ran the best last 600m, 400m and 200m of the day as well and he looks like he needs 1200m now.
Destination @ 9/4 with William Hill

Saturday morning sees the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. It looks a fascinating renewal and one I think will go to the home team. Other bets for Saturday will be posted later today.   Kodling - Had lost his way, but has been back in form this prep having won the G1 George Main and the G2 Hill Stakes the last twice.  He proved he stays 2000m last time and he was 2L in front of Avilius who ran well in the Caulfield Cup last week. Has a chance and wont mind if the rain hits and we get into the Soft range.   Humidor - The horse who pushed Winx very close in 2017 and was then 3rd the following year. He looked like he had lost his way, but Chris Waller has completely turned his form around. Was a shock winner here over 1600m on his 1st runthis prep and then split Russian Camelot and Arcadia Queen in the Underwood at Caulfield. Was behind those 2 when 3rd last time in the Caulfield Stakes, but I suspect the race wasn't run to suit. His jockey Craig Williams was very bullish about him when he worked at the track earlier in the week and he clearly loves The Valley. If he hadn't been drawn in 14 I would have put him up as an e/w chance, but I reckon he outruns his odds.   Fierce Impact - A very consistent horse who beat Russian Camelot over 1600m at Flemington in the Makybe Diva Stakes. He was then 3rd to Kolding in the Hill Stakes. He handles a wet track, but his form over 2000m isn't as strong as others which is enough to put me off.   Master Of Wine - Just 10th in the Caulfield Cup last week and it is hard to see him playing a part here.   Mugatoo - Has shown massive progression since coming over from the UK and was very good this prep winning 3 on the bounce and then finished 2nd in The Met at Randwick last time. I'm surprised they didn't go to the Caulfield Cup with him as he looked a big player to me in that, but he was well behind Verry Elleegant in his only WFA G1 in the Tancred Stakes and that suggests he has a bit too find here.   Aspetar - Is a hold up horse so his draw of 3 doesn't actually do him too many favours. He seems an odd choice for this race to me given his hold up style and he is going to a need a fair bit of luck in running from the inside. Most of his form is over 2400m, but did win the York Stakes last time. He won easily although it wasn't a strong race. It is a shame he had to miss the Juddmonte International as it would have given us a better idea of how good he is, but since December he's only had two runs both coming in July and that concerns me as well.   Sir Dragonet - Has finished 2nd on all 4 starts this season although his 2nd to Magical last time obviously reads well enough. Hasn't won since his Chester Vase win when he made it 2/2 although he did go on to go off 11/4f for the Derby when he was 5th. It will be interesting if new connections ride him differently as surely his hold up style isn't going to be a plus here. Cut in the ground does suit though.   Magic Wand - Scratched   Arcadia Queen - Went off favourite for the Everest last year, but out to this trip last time beat Russian Camelot in the Caulfield Stakes. That was a really good performance, but it was a bit of a sit and sprint contest and this won't be. There is a doubt about her on soft ground as well if the rain hits. I just think if this race is run at a true tempo she might struggle to see it out as well as others especially if we see a Soft 6.   Nettoyer - Loves eating pizza and got stuck into one after winning the G1 Doncaster at huge odds in the Autumn. Was 2nd in a G3 last time and her form isn't good enough for this.    Russian Camelot - Looked superb when winning the South Australian Derby in May and returned this prep with a very good 2nd over 1600m to Fierce Impact at Flemington in September. I loved the way he hit the line that day and he duly won the Underwood in good style at Caulfield on his next start. Was beaten at 2/5 in the Caulfield Stakes by Arcadia Queen, but the way that race was run would not have suited and this race will surely be run at a stronger tempo. The draw looks horrific on paper, but I just wonder if sitting on the outside of runners rather than trapped on the inside might help him and he should get a clearer run than some of his rivals. Rain will be an added plus as well.   Armory - Looks the pick of the UK & Irish runners having won a G3 over this trip at the Curragh and then finishing a 2L 3rd to Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes. He had been 4th in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the start of the season as well. If he can back up the run at Leopardstown or even improve on it then he is a big danger to the locals.   Probabeel - She was going to be my pick for the Epsom last time until she got a shocking draw and it put me off. McEvoy gave her a peach of a ride though and she was an impressive winner. She has finished in the top 2 in 14 of her 18 starts and McEovy has a great record on her. She has only run over this distance once when finishing 2nd in a G1 back in March, but she is drawn in 2 and I think she will be able to sit handy behind the speed and could well get first run on those needing to come from behind. She has form on a wet track so that should hold no fears and she has a big chance.   Grandslam - God knows what he is even doing in the race given 2 starts back he was beaten in a BM64 at Flemington. He was 3rd at a massive price in the Caulfield Guineas last time and he will likely set the pace, but he is a doubtful stayer and shouldn't be good enough.   Buckhurst - Surprising he didn't get a place in the race to start with, but gets in with Magic Wand coming out. Didn't run too badly in the Caulfield Cup last week and I reckon this trip suits him better. Not sure he's good enough to win, but he should run well enough.   Verdict - I am going to go with Russian Camelot here. I think he is better than he was able to show behind Arcadia Queen last time and he should get a stronger gallop here which is what he needs over this trip. I am also going to cover Probabeel who is so consistent and looks to be drawn to get the perfect run. Armory can be best of the UK & Irish runners and Humidor is can out run his odds at his favourite venue.   Russian Camelot @ 4/1 with William Hill Probabeel @ 17/2 with Betfair

It was an interesting angle sticking Frankel, Secretariat and Deep Impact in the race, but given the first two named finished first and second it has back fired a little. It would be a bit like sticking Denman in a virtual Grand National. I was surprised Winx was favourite over Frankel, but in my adult lifetime I believe they are the best two horses I have seen on the flat especially over 1m/1m2f. I think if they had been around at the same time as each other you would have seen the two of them race. I think Winx might have beaten him in a Cox Plate, but Frankel would have had the edge over here. It would have been a hell of a race though.
As for why they never actually sent her over here I think it was a few things. No horse has won 4 Cox Plates and I think the chance to create history in Australia's biggest WFA race was a very big factor. The year they were thinking about sending her over the Queen Anne was won by Accidental Agent which tells you all you need to now about how poor the race was. She would have wiped the for with him and to travel half way around the world to beat some poor horses for less prize money wasn't really worth it. As I mention above if it had been Frankel I think they would have sent her. The other thing which I think would have been in the back of their minds was what happened to Black Caviar. She didn't have a great trip and got injured before she ran which is why she only just won. It took her a while to get over that and with such a precious horse they just didn't want to risk it. As her trainer Chris Waller always said they could have sent any horse to face her in Australia. She was a truly special horse though to win G1's over 7f up to 1m2f as well as the unbeaten record and the fact she raced for so long at the top level. She could do freakish things and there was occasions where she ought to have been beaten, but every time she found a way to win. Watch this race she wins at Flemington and you will see what I mean. 
 

Moonee Valley R6 (4.15am)
Young Werther looks a decent bet here. He has to reverse form with Khoekhoe from Flemington last time, but I think he will as he was unlucky not to win that day. He wasn't able to get going until 150m out and e flew home to clock the fastest last 200m in the race. His debut win at Geelong was good and with a good draw in 4 he looks the one to beat.
Young Werther @ 5/4 with William Hill
Moonee Valley R7 (4.50am)
Ex French horse Olmedo looks worth going with here. He had good form in France including finishing 2nd to The Revenant in a G2 at Longchamp on Arc weekend last year. He has only been seen once since and that was in a G2 at Rosehill in March where he faded out of it late in testing ground. He's better than that and if able to show his best 1st up I think he can land this for Chris Waller.
Olmedo @ 5/1 with Bet365
Moonee Valley R8 (5.30am)
Selino is interesting on his first start since finishing 2nd in the Doncaster Cup last month, but I just wonder if he will find this too sharp a test. Instead I will give his stablemate, Shared Ambition, one more chance. I thought he ran well enough last time when I put him up to go with him again over a trip he wants. A bit of cut in the ground would suit as well. I am also going with Gallic Chieftain who just missed landing the place money when 4th in the Herbert Power last time. Chapada won that contest and he ran well enough in the Caulfield Cup last week to give the form a boost. He is a course and distance winner and also doesn't mind if we see plenty of rain.
Shared Ambition @ 11/4 with William Hill
Gallic Chieftain @ 14/1 with William Hill
Randwick R3 (4am)
Just the one bet for me up in Sydney and that is Godolphin's Destination. He was 2nd in a Listed Race over 1100m at Rosehill last month and that form looks strong given the winner has won since. He ran the best last 600m, 400m and 200m of the day as well and he looks like he needs 1200m now.
Destination @ 9/4 with William Hill

A good card to look forward to in the morning at Moonee Valley headed by the G1 Manikato Stakes at 10.45am. Trekking has to be the main pick as he will be hard to beat if he backs up his run in the Everest 6 days ago. Ran well in the Moir when 3rd over 1000m here the time before Going to cover Brooklyn Hustle e/w as well. She was 4th in the Moir having been last early on and flew home. Stepping up to the 1200m will be ideal for her. Elsewhere on the card I will be backing R2 (7.45am) Affair To Remember, R4 (8.45am) Iconocalsm & R5 (9.15am) Human Nature.   Trekking @ 14/5 with Bet365 Brooklyn Hustle e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill Affair To Remember @ 3/1 with Betfair Iconoclasm @ 15/8 with William Hill Human Nature @ 2/1 with Bet365  

Someone worked it out! 

Someone worked it out! 

I have 4 more bets across the cards at Caulfield and Randwick
Caulfield R7 (5.45am)
Hard not to be impressed with Alfa Oro of late and his record is now 6/8. I put him up last time despite the fact he was dropping down to 955m at The Valley last time and he bolted up in a BM84. He steps up into G2 company for the first time, but he looks more than up to it based on times and the visual performances. He is the improver against a more exposed field and is drawn in 2 so should be able to get a handy position.
Alfa Oro @ 11/10 with William Hill
Caulfield R10 (7.45am)
Pretty Brazen for me in this G2 that ends the card. She has been running well so fair this prep. She won a G2 at Flemington last month beating Arcadia Queen and then finished 3rd in a G1 over course and distance a week later with the winner being Behemoth. So the form of both races is strong. She got no luck at all last time at Flemington and she would have finished close with a clear run. She will need luck in running again, but it is a small field so it should be easier for her jockey here.
Pretty Brazen @ 18/5 with Bet365
Randwick R5 (4.50am)
The Koscuiszko is a great idea that I think would work well over here and I am going with the favourite It's Me who has looked a superstar in waiting. She has a blistering turn of foot and although she has never been 1200m in her 3 starts to date it doesn't look like it will be an issue for her. It isn't hard to think that further down the line she could be an Everest horse.
It's Me @ 5/4 with Bet365
Randwick R6 (5.25am)
This is basically the race for horses that didn't get a run in The Everest and Deprive looks the best of them. He landed this race last year and his return in the G2 Premiere when 3rd to Libertini is obviously a strong piece of form and it should put him spot on to land this prize for the 2nd year running.
Deprive @ 15/8 with Betfair

I'm not sure there a key stat at various race distances. Obviously the draw can play a part at certain tracks over certain distances.

I wrote the below about Brave Jaq when he was meant to run at Ludlow recently but was a non-runner
I think Brave Jaq is well handicapped in this competitive looking race. He hasn't been seen since finishing a well beaten 2nd to Risk A Fine in a hunter chase last March, but that horse is now rated in the 140's after a superb hunter chase season. Lockdown probably stopped us seeing both horses so far this year, but he has a mark of 100 here going back over hurdles. He did show a bit of ability to start with in hurdles for Paul Nicholls so that gives me confidence he can handle them and I think he is a better horse now he has learnt to settle better. When he first went hunter chasing he was a bit of a tearaway and almost uncontrollable, but last year he was able to finally win a hunter chase and showed over good form. My main concern is he will need this as he hasn't always been in peak shape 1st up and obviously he has had a long break, so I can't be as confident as I would like to be.
He is set to run at Stratford this afternoon in the 1.43 and I actually like him a bit more than I did at Ludlow. He looks set to be the only front runner in the race and with Stratford a front runners track that is going to be a big advantage. Obviously the concern remains about how he will go 1st up, but it doesn't look as strong a race as the Ludlow one and at 20/1 I am more than happy to play.
Brave Jaq @ 20/1 with Bet365

Saturday could well be the best ever day's racing in Australia given we have The Everest at Randwick and the Caulfield Cup, which features plenty of European interest. I have done a runner-by-runner guide for both races. 
Nature Strip - The world's best sprinter has been disappointing in both starts so far this prep, but there have been excuses. He has a shocking record 1st up so it wasn't a huge surprise that he was beaten by Gytrash. 2nd up he went back to his very keen ways which he looked to be over and it wasn't a big shock he faded badly. That was explained though by the fact he was found to have mucus on his lings after the race. His trainer his happy with him and if he is at his best last year's 4th is the one they all have to beat.   Trekking - Beat Gytrash in the Goodwood in May and was a good 2nd 1st up in the Moir at Moonee Valley over 1000m last month. Was a really good 3rd in this last year and he certainly seems in decent form given the merit of the run last time.   Classique Legend - Was 6th in this last year when not getting a great deal of luck and has come back looking an improved horse. He landed a Listed race in June here in really good fashion before returning last month to win the G2 Shorts. Again he looked good that day, but he was then beaten by Libertini in the Premiere over course and distance a couple of weeks ago. He didn't get much cover that day though and I do think he can reverse that form now he has a better draw which should allow him to get some cover. He has a leading chance.   Santa Ana Lane - Has been a superb sprinter and was 2nd in this last year, but he just doesn't seem to be as good as he used to be and would be a surprise winner for me.   Behemoth - What a story this horse is given he only cost $6000 and is part of a syndicate whose members must be pretty excited. He was 4th behind Trekking in The Goodwood at Morphettville in May, but he was too far back in a big field that day and always had too much to do. This prep he is 3/3 including winning 2 G1's over 1400m at Caulfield. He will be charging late back down in trip and he could easily fill the frame given the form he's in, but I'm just not sure he will be quick enough to get there before they hit the post.   Bivouac - Won the G1 Newmarket at Flemington back in March, but that is a handicap and he has often finished behind most of these in WFA races including being 3rd in The Shorts to Classique Legend.   Gytrash - Is very consistent and landed the G1 Lightning at Flemington back in February. Was just denied by Trekking in The Goodwood and was locked into this race after that. That means that his prep could be built around this contest and he didn't have to try and run his way into a slot. Looked good in beating Nature Strip in the Concorde, but 1st up could have been the right time to catch him. Having said that he nearly always goes close and he is a player.   Eduardo - Is certainly progressing and showed some good form when winning twice at Rosehill including a G2. That came on a Heavy 9 track though and I just wonder if he needs it wet to be seen at his best. Was 2nd behind Classique Legend in The Shorts.   Dollar For Dollar - Looks outclassed in this field.   Tofane - A G1 winner over 1400m back in the autumn and I thought he was a bit unlucky at Flemington last time when he was only 5th as he didn't get much luck in running. I think over this level he would want a wet track.   Libertini - Has won half of her 10 career starts, but disappointed in the Autumn in 2 starts, but did finish lame in the Newmarket. Returned with a superb effort to win the Premiere beating Classique Legend by 2L as well as having Nature Strip in behind. If she backs that up is has a massive chance, but she has drawn badly in 12 and she is going to need luck from there.   Haut Brion Her - Has won 6 of her 10 starts and finished 2nd in 3 more. She is clearly good, but she hasn't been anywhere near this level yet and doubtful she can win this.   Verdict - I have to stick with Nature Strip. For me he is the best horse in the race and given his dire 1st up record and the fact he had mucus in his lungs last time means I can forgive him his two runs this prep. Classique Legend had a tough run last time and is drawn well here so should be able to get a kinder run. He looks the main danger. Gytrash never knows how to run a bad race and it is hard to see him not finish in the frame. Behemoth will be flying late and if the front runners are stopping he might well pick them up.   Nature Strip @ 4/1 with Bet365   Caulfield Cup Anthony Van Dyck - Was slightly surprised to see last year's Derby winner on the plane to Australia, but it seems like Aidan is keen again to win the big Australian races. He has the best form in the race although was beating Stradivarius last time in a crawl really a top class effort? I'm not so sure. He has a terrible draw in 21 so Hugh is going to have to decide if he is going to go forward or take a pull and drop him out. I suspect he will do the former as there doesn't look a great deal of pace in the race. It would be no surprise if he won, but I want to take him on.   Avilius - The Avilius from last Autumn would have a huge chance, but he has been below that in his last 2 preps and his Melbourne form has always been poor so not for me.   Vow And Declare - A superb 2nd in this last year, before winning the big one at Flemington, but has not shown great form since and I can't have him matching last year's effort let alone go one place better.   Buckhurst - Never won over this far and did seem to be given a bit of a quiet run behind Tiger Moth last time so I wouldn't completely rule him out as I suspect the way a 2400m race is usually run in Australia is going to suit him.   Mirage Dancer - Loved his run in this last year when he was 3rd, but he was a bit keen in the Melbourne Cup and was only 14th although not beaten far. I don't think he really stays that far either. Had run some solid races in Australia after that, but topped the lot when beating Mugatoo in the Met at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I like that form as Mugatoo has been flying this prep and he's not out of this.   Mustajeer - Has got the odd bit of form since moving out here which would give him some sort of chance, but he was only 9th behind Mirage Dancer last time.   Verry Elleegant - A genuine G1 horse who was the one who chased Addeybb home in the Queen Elizabeth in April. Returned to land the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August which was some effort. She disappointed on her next start, but then bounced straight back when landing the G1 Turnbull last time on a quicker track than she usually favours. With rain around there should be some cut which is perfect for her and I think she has a big chance.   Dashing Willoughby - Did win a Listed Race over this trip at Newmarket in June, but not hard to think this is being used as a prep for the Melbourne Cup.   Finche - Ran well in this last year when finishing 5th after finishing 2nd in the Turnbull which he was 3rd in this year. Was favourite in last year's Melbourne Cup as well when finishing 7th although only beaten just over a length. 3rd up he should be ready to peak and is one for the shortlist.   Prince Of Arran - Thrives so much in Australia I am surprised they don't keep him there. Sure to run well although he will be using this as a run to get him ready for the main one next month.    Master Of Wine - Wasn't far behind Verry Elleegant last time and is weighted to beat her here. Is 1/1 over this trip and he has been getting better with every start this prep. Another one in with a chance.   The Chosen One - Well beaten by Chapada last week and hard to see him featuring.   Warning - Won the Victoria Derby last year over 2500m and caught the eye last time in the Turnbull when finishing 6th. He clocked the fastest final 600m/400m and 200m splits in the race and is clearly crying out for this trip or further. The concern for me is the wide draw as he is surely going to have to settle nearer last than first and he is going to need plenty of luck in running if he is going to win. That is enough to put me off, but I think he is good enough to win.   Dalasan - Was 2nd to Russian Camelot and in front of Warning in the South Australian Derby in May. Has since run well over shorter trips and then finished a neck behind Verry Elleegant by a neck in the Turnbull. Is weighted to overturn that form and can see him running well again. His jockey William Pike is flying at the moment as well.   True Self - Don't think a great deal of her form in Ireland and the Ebor this season, but did finish 2nd in the Geelong Cup and won the Queen Elizabeth at Flemington after that. Does have a good draw, but has work to do for me.   Toffee Tongue - Was 2nd in the Turnbull and again another who at these weights could beat the winner. Has only actually won once in 12 starts although that was the G1 Australasian Oaks back in May. That is over 200m although she had run well over this trip before. If she repeats the last time run she isn't out of this.   Chapada - Did me a good turn last week when winning the Herbert Power, but this looks harder and even though he has a low weight and is in great form, I am not sure he is up to winning this.   Raheen House - Gets in as first emergency, but not really in good enough form to win this.   Verdict - I know those in behind Verry Elleegant last time are weighted to reverse the form, but I don't think they well and with the likelihood of a wet track that only enhances her chances.  As much as Anthony Van Dyck could win this if at his best I am happy to leave him out of the equation so my main dangers are Mirage Dancer, who looks overpriced, Finche is so consistent and gives Chris Waller a strong 2nd contender and Dalasan with William Pike looks to be building up to this. Master Of Wine, Warning (if overcoming the draw), Buckhurst and Toffee Tongue are just behind them as well.   Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Betfair   Mirage Dancer e/w @ 25/1 with Betfair (William Hill 16/1 for 5 places)   Dalasan e/w @ 18/1 with Betfair (William Hill 12/1 for 5 places)   Finche e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 (William Hill 9/1 for 5 places)

I wrote the below about Brave Jaq when he was meant to run at Ludlow recently but was a non-runner
I think Brave Jaq is well handicapped in this competitive looking race. He hasn't been seen since finishing a well beaten 2nd to Risk A Fine in a hunter chase last March, but that horse is now rated in the 140's after a superb hunter chase season. Lockdown probably stopped us seeing both horses so far this year, but he has a mark of 100 here going back over hurdles. He did show a bit of ability to start with in hurdles for Paul Nicholls so that gives me confidence he can handle them and I think he is a better horse now he has learnt to settle better. When he first went hunter chasing he was a bit of a tearaway and almost uncontrollable, but last year he was able to finally win a hunter chase and showed over good form. My main concern is he will need this as he hasn't always been in peak shape 1st up and obviously he has had a long break, so I can't be as confident as I would like to be.
He is set to run at Stratford this afternoon in the 1.43 and I actually like him a bit more than I did at Ludlow. He looks set to be the only front runner in the race and with Stratford a front runners track that is going to be a big advantage. Obviously the concern remains about how he will go 1st up, but it doesn't look as strong a race as the Ludlow one and at 20/1 I am more than happy to play.
Brave Jaq @ 20/1 with Bet365

I have 4 more bets across the cards at Caulfield and Randwick
Caulfield R7 (5.45am)
Hard not to be impressed with Alfa Oro of late and his record is now 6/8. I put him up last time despite the fact he was dropping down to 955m at The Valley last time and he bolted up in a BM84. He steps up into G2 company for the first time, but he looks more than up to it based on times and the visual performances. He is the improver against a more exposed field and is drawn in 2 so should be able to get a handy position.
Alfa Oro @ 11/10 with William Hill
Caulfield R10 (7.45am)
Pretty Brazen for me in this G2 that ends the card. She has been running well so fair this prep. She won a G2 at Flemington last month beating Arcadia Queen and then finished 3rd in a G1 over course and distance a week later with the winner being Behemoth. So the form of both races is strong. She got no luck at all last time at Flemington and she would have finished close with a clear run. She will need luck in running again, but it is a small field so it should be easier for her jockey here.
Pretty Brazen @ 18/5 with Bet365
Randwick R5 (4.50am)
The Koscuiszko is a great idea that I think would work well over here and I am going with the favourite It's Me who has looked a superstar in waiting. She has a blistering turn of foot and although she has never been 1200m in her 3 starts to date it doesn't look like it will be an issue for her. It isn't hard to think that further down the line she could be an Everest horse.
It's Me @ 5/4 with Bet365
Randwick R6 (5.25am)
This is basically the race for horses that didn't get a run in The Everest and Deprive looks the best of them. He landed this race last year and his return in the G2 Premiere when 3rd to Libertini is obviously a strong piece of form and it should put him spot on to land this prize for the 2nd year running.
Deprive @ 15/8 with Betfair

Saturday could well be the best ever day's racing in Australia given we have The Everest at Randwick and the Caulfield Cup, which features plenty of European interest. I have done a runner-by-runner guide for both races. 
Nature Strip - The world's best sprinter has been disappointing in both starts so far this prep, but there have been excuses. He has a shocking record 1st up so it wasn't a huge surprise that he was beaten by Gytrash. 2nd up he went back to his very keen ways which he looked to be over and it wasn't a big shock he faded badly. That was explained though by the fact he was found to have mucus on his lings after the race. His trainer his happy with him and if he is at his best last year's 4th is the one they all have to beat.   Trekking - Beat Gytrash in the Goodwood in May and was a good 2nd 1st up in the Moir at Moonee Valley over 1000m last month. Was a really good 3rd in this last year and he certainly seems in decent form given the merit of the run last time.   Classique Legend - Was 6th in this last year when not getting a great deal of luck and has come back looking an improved horse. He landed a Listed race in June here in really good fashion before returning last month to win the G2 Shorts. Again he looked good that day, but he was then beaten by Libertini in the Premiere over course and distance a couple of weeks ago. He didn't get much cover that day though and I do think he can reverse that form now he has a better draw which should allow him to get some cover. He has a leading chance.   Santa Ana Lane - Has been a superb sprinter and was 2nd in this last year, but he just doesn't seem to be as good as he used to be and would be a surprise winner for me.   Behemoth - What a story this horse is given he only cost $6000 and is part of a syndicate whose members must be pretty excited. He was 4th behind Trekking in The Goodwood at Morphettville in May, but he was too far back in a big field that day and always had too much to do. This prep he is 3/3 including winning 2 G1's over 1400m at Caulfield. He will be charging late back down in trip and he could easily fill the frame given the form he's in, but I'm just not sure he will be quick enough to get there before they hit the post.   Bivouac - Won the G1 Newmarket at Flemington back in March, but that is a handicap and he has often finished behind most of these in WFA races including being 3rd in The Shorts to Classique Legend.   Gytrash - Is very consistent and landed the G1 Lightning at Flemington back in February. Was just denied by Trekking in The Goodwood and was locked into this race after that. That means that his prep could be built around this contest and he didn't have to try and run his way into a slot. Looked good in beating Nature Strip in the Concorde, but 1st up could have been the right time to catch him. Having said that he nearly always goes close and he is a player.   Eduardo - Is certainly progressing and showed some good form when winning twice at Rosehill including a G2. That came on a Heavy 9 track though and I just wonder if he needs it wet to be seen at his best. Was 2nd behind Classique Legend in The Shorts.   Dollar For Dollar - Looks outclassed in this field.   Tofane - A G1 winner over 1400m back in the autumn and I thought he was a bit unlucky at Flemington last time when he was only 5th as he didn't get much luck in running. I think over this level he would want a wet track.   Libertini - Has won half of her 10 career starts, but disappointed in the Autumn in 2 starts, but did finish lame in the Newmarket. Returned with a superb effort to win the Premiere beating Classique Legend by 2L as well as having Nature Strip in behind. If she backs that up is has a massive chance, but she has drawn badly in 12 and she is going to need luck from there.   Haut Brion Her - Has won 6 of her 10 starts and finished 2nd in 3 more. She is clearly good, but she hasn't been anywhere near this level yet and doubtful she can win this.   Verdict - I have to stick with Nature Strip. For me he is the best horse in the race and given his dire 1st up record and the fact he had mucus in his lungs last time means I can forgive him his two runs this prep. Classique Legend had a tough run last time and is drawn well here so should be able to get a kinder run. He looks the main danger. Gytrash never knows how to run a bad race and it is hard to see him not finish in the frame. Behemoth will be flying late and if the front runners are stopping he might well pick them up.   Nature Strip @ 4/1 with Bet365   Caulfield Cup Anthony Van Dyck - Was slightly surprised to see last year's Derby winner on the plane to Australia, but it seems like Aidan is keen again to win the big Australian races. He has the best form in the race although was beating Stradivarius last time in a crawl really a top class effort? I'm not so sure. He has a terrible draw in 21 so Hugh is going to have to decide if he is going to go forward or take a pull and drop him out. I suspect he will do the former as there doesn't look a great deal of pace in the race. It would be no surprise if he won, but I want to take him on.   Avilius - The Avilius from last Autumn would have a huge chance, but he has been below that in his last 2 preps and his Melbourne form has always been poor so not for me.   Vow And Declare - A superb 2nd in this last year, before winning the big one at Flemington, but has not shown great form since and I can't have him matching last year's effort let alone go one place better.   Buckhurst - Never won over this far and did seem to be given a bit of a quiet run behind Tiger Moth last time so I wouldn't completely rule him out as I suspect the way a 2400m race is usually run in Australia is going to suit him.   Mirage Dancer - Loved his run in this last year when he was 3rd, but he was a bit keen in the Melbourne Cup and was only 14th although not beaten far. I don't think he really stays that far either. Had run some solid races in Australia after that, but topped the lot when beating Mugatoo in the Met at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I like that form as Mugatoo has been flying this prep and he's not out of this.   Mustajeer - Has got the odd bit of form since moving out here which would give him some sort of chance, but he was only 9th behind Mirage Dancer last time.   Verry Elleegant - A genuine G1 horse who was the one who chased Addeybb home in the Queen Elizabeth in April. Returned to land the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August which was some effort. She disappointed on her next start, but then bounced straight back when landing the G1 Turnbull last time on a quicker track than she usually favours. With rain around there should be some cut which is perfect for her and I think she has a big chance.   Dashing Willoughby - Did win a Listed Race over this trip at Newmarket in June, but not hard to think this is being used as a prep for the Melbourne Cup.   Finche - Ran well in this last year when finishing 5th after finishing 2nd in the Turnbull which he was 3rd in this year. Was favourite in last year's Melbourne Cup as well when finishing 7th although only beaten just over a length. 3rd up he should be ready to peak and is one for the shortlist.   Prince Of Arran - Thrives so much in Australia I am surprised they don't keep him there. Sure to run well although he will be using this as a run to get him ready for the main one next month.    Master Of Wine - Wasn't far behind Verry Elleegant last time and is weighted to beat her here. Is 1/1 over this trip and he has been getting better with every start this prep. Another one in with a chance.   The Chosen One - Well beaten by Chapada last week and hard to see him featuring.   Warning - Won the Victoria Derby last year over 2500m and caught the eye last time in the Turnbull when finishing 6th. He clocked the fastest final 600m/400m and 200m splits in the race and is clearly crying out for this trip or further. The concern for me is the wide draw as he is surely going to have to settle nearer last than first and he is going to need plenty of luck in running if he is going to win. That is enough to put me off, but I think he is good enough to win.   Dalasan - Was 2nd to Russian Camelot and in front of Warning in the South Australian Derby in May. Has since run well over shorter trips and then finished a neck behind Verry Elleegant by a neck in the Turnbull. Is weighted to overturn that form and can see him running well again. His jockey William Pike is flying at the moment as well.   True Self - Don't think a great deal of her form in Ireland and the Ebor this season, but did finish 2nd in the Geelong Cup and won the Queen Elizabeth at Flemington after that. Does have a good draw, but has work to do for me.   Toffee Tongue - Was 2nd in the Turnbull and again another who at these weights could beat the winner. Has only actually won once in 12 starts although that was the G1 Australasian Oaks back in May. That is over 200m although she had run well over this trip before. If she repeats the last time run she isn't out of this.   Chapada - Did me a good turn last week when winning the Herbert Power, but this looks harder and even though he has a low weight and is in great form, I am not sure he is up to winning this.   Raheen House - Gets in as first emergency, but not really in good enough form to win this.   Verdict - I know those in behind Verry Elleegant last time are weighted to reverse the form, but I don't think they well and with the likelihood of a wet track that only enhances her chances.  As much as Anthony Van Dyck could win this if at his best I am happy to leave him out of the equation so my main dangers are Mirage Dancer, who looks overpriced, Finche is so consistent and gives Chris Waller a strong 2nd contender and Dalasan with William Pike looks to be building up to this. Master Of Wine, Warning (if overcoming the draw), Buckhurst and Toffee Tongue are just behind them as well.   Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Betfair   Mirage Dancer e/w @ 25/1 with Betfair (William Hill 16/1 for 5 places)   Dalasan e/w @ 18/1 with Betfair (William Hill 12/1 for 5 places)   Finche e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 (William Hill 9/1 for 5 places)

Saturday could well be the best ever day's racing in Australia given we have The Everest at Randwick and the Caulfield Cup, which features plenty of European interest. I have done a runner-by-runner guide for both races. 
Nature Strip - The world's best sprinter has been disappointing in both starts so far this prep, but there have been excuses. He has a shocking record 1st up so it wasn't a huge surprise that he was beaten by Gytrash. 2nd up he went back to his very keen ways which he looked to be over and it wasn't a big shock he faded badly. That was explained though by the fact he was found to have mucus on his lings after the race. His trainer his happy with him and if he is at his best last year's 4th is the one they all have to beat.   Trekking - Beat Gytrash in the Goodwood in May and was a good 2nd 1st up in the Moir at Moonee Valley over 1000m last month. Was a really good 3rd in this last year and he certainly seems in decent form given the merit of the run last time.   Classique Legend - Was 6th in this last year when not getting a great deal of luck and has come back looking an improved horse. He landed a Listed race in June here in really good fashion before returning last month to win the G2 Shorts. Again he looked good that day, but he was then beaten by Libertini in the Premiere over course and distance a couple of weeks ago. He didn't get much cover that day though and I do think he can reverse that form now he has a better draw which should allow him to get some cover. He has a leading chance.   Santa Ana Lane - Has been a superb sprinter and was 2nd in this last year, but he just doesn't seem to be as good as he used to be and would be a surprise winner for me.   Behemoth - What a story this horse is given he only cost $6000 and is part of a syndicate whose members must be pretty excited. He was 4th behind Trekking in The Goodwood at Morphettville in May, but he was too far back in a big field that day and always had too much to do. This prep he is 3/3 including winning 2 G1's over 1400m at Caulfield. He will be charging late back down in trip and he could easily fill the frame given the form he's in, but I'm just not sure he will be quick enough to get there before they hit the post.   Bivouac - Won the G1 Newmarket at Flemington back in March, but that is a handicap and he has often finished behind most of these in WFA races including being 3rd in The Shorts to Classique Legend.   Gytrash - Is very consistent and landed the G1 Lightning at Flemington back in February. Was just denied by Trekking in The Goodwood and was locked into this race after that. That means that his prep could be built around this contest and he didn't have to try and run his way into a slot. Looked good in beating Nature Strip in the Concorde, but 1st up could have been the right time to catch him. Having said that he nearly always goes close and he is a player.   Eduardo - Is certainly progressing and showed some good form when winning twice at Rosehill including a G2. That came on a Heavy 9 track though and I just wonder if he needs it wet to be seen at his best. Was 2nd behind Classique Legend in The Shorts.   Dollar For Dollar - Looks outclassed in this field.   Tofane - A G1 winner over 1400m back in the autumn and I thought he was a bit unlucky at Flemington last time when he was only 5th as he didn't get much luck in running. I think over this level he would want a wet track.   Libertini - Has won half of her 10 career starts, but disappointed in the Autumn in 2 starts, but did finish lame in the Newmarket. Returned with a superb effort to win the Premiere beating Classique Legend by 2L as well as having Nature Strip in behind. If she backs that up is has a massive chance, but she has drawn badly in 12 and she is going to need luck from there.   Haut Brion Her - Has won 6 of her 10 starts and finished 2nd in 3 more. She is clearly good, but she hasn't been anywhere near this level yet and doubtful she can win this.   Verdict - I have to stick with Nature Strip. For me he is the best horse in the race and given his dire 1st up record and the fact he had mucus in his lungs last time means I can forgive him his two runs this prep. Classique Legend had a tough run last time and is drawn well here so should be able to get a kinder run. He looks the main danger. Gytrash never knows how to run a bad race and it is hard to see him not finish in the frame. Behemoth will be flying late and if the front runners are stopping he might well pick them up.   Nature Strip @ 4/1 with Bet365   Caulfield Cup Anthony Van Dyck - Was slightly surprised to see last year's Derby winner on the plane to Australia, but it seems like Aidan is keen again to win the big Australian races. He has the best form in the race although was beating Stradivarius last time in a crawl really a top class effort? I'm not so sure. He has a terrible draw in 21 so Hugh is going to have to decide if he is going to go forward or take a pull and drop him out. I suspect he will do the former as there doesn't look a great deal of pace in the race. It would be no surprise if he won, but I want to take him on.   Avilius - The Avilius from last Autumn would have a huge chance, but he has been below that in his last 2 preps and his Melbourne form has always been poor so not for me.   Vow And Declare - A superb 2nd in this last year, before winning the big one at Flemington, but has not shown great form since and I can't have him matching last year's effort let alone go one place better.   Buckhurst - Never won over this far and did seem to be given a bit of a quiet run behind Tiger Moth last time so I wouldn't completely rule him out as I suspect the way a 2400m race is usually run in Australia is going to suit him.   Mirage Dancer - Loved his run in this last year when he was 3rd, but he was a bit keen in the Melbourne Cup and was only 14th although not beaten far. I don't think he really stays that far either. Had run some solid races in Australia after that, but topped the lot when beating Mugatoo in the Met at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I like that form as Mugatoo has been flying this prep and he's not out of this.   Mustajeer - Has got the odd bit of form since moving out here which would give him some sort of chance, but he was only 9th behind Mirage Dancer last time.   Verry Elleegant - A genuine G1 horse who was the one who chased Addeybb home in the Queen Elizabeth in April. Returned to land the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August which was some effort. She disappointed on her next start, but then bounced straight back when landing the G1 Turnbull last time on a quicker track than she usually favours. With rain around there should be some cut which is perfect for her and I think she has a big chance.   Dashing Willoughby - Did win a Listed Race over this trip at Newmarket in June, but not hard to think this is being used as a prep for the Melbourne Cup.   Finche - Ran well in this last year when finishing 5th after finishing 2nd in the Turnbull which he was 3rd in this year. Was favourite in last year's Melbourne Cup as well when finishing 7th although only beaten just over a length. 3rd up he should be ready to peak and is one for the shortlist.   Prince Of Arran - Thrives so much in Australia I am surprised they don't keep him there. Sure to run well although he will be using this as a run to get him ready for the main one next month.    Master Of Wine - Wasn't far behind Verry Elleegant last time and is weighted to beat her here. Is 1/1 over this trip and he has been getting better with every start this prep. Another one in with a chance.   The Chosen One - Well beaten by Chapada last week and hard to see him featuring.   Warning - Won the Victoria Derby last year over 2500m and caught the eye last time in the Turnbull when finishing 6th. He clocked the fastest final 600m/400m and 200m splits in the race and is clearly crying out for this trip or further. The concern for me is the wide draw as he is surely going to have to settle nearer last than first and he is going to need plenty of luck in running if he is going to win. That is enough to put me off, but I think he is good enough to win.   Dalasan - Was 2nd to Russian Camelot and in front of Warning in the South Australian Derby in May. Has since run well over shorter trips and then finished a neck behind Verry Elleegant by a neck in the Turnbull. Is weighted to overturn that form and can see him running well again. His jockey William Pike is flying at the moment as well.   True Self - Don't think a great deal of her form in Ireland and the Ebor this season, but did finish 2nd in the Geelong Cup and won the Queen Elizabeth at Flemington after that. Does have a good draw, but has work to do for me.   Toffee Tongue - Was 2nd in the Turnbull and again another who at these weights could beat the winner. Has only actually won once in 12 starts although that was the G1 Australasian Oaks back in May. That is over 200m although she had run well over this trip before. If she repeats the last time run she isn't out of this.   Chapada - Did me a good turn last week when winning the Herbert Power, but this looks harder and even though he has a low weight and is in great form, I am not sure he is up to winning this.   Raheen House - Gets in as first emergency, but not really in good enough form to win this.   Verdict - I know those in behind Verry Elleegant last time are weighted to reverse the form, but I don't think they well and with the likelihood of a wet track that only enhances her chances.  As much as Anthony Van Dyck could win this if at his best I am happy to leave him out of the equation so my main dangers are Mirage Dancer, who looks overpriced, Finche is so consistent and gives Chris Waller a strong 2nd contender and Dalasan with William Pike looks to be building up to this. Master Of Wine, Warning (if overcoming the draw), Buckhurst and Toffee Tongue are just behind them as well.   Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Betfair   Mirage Dancer e/w @ 25/1 with Betfair (William Hill 16/1 for 5 places)   Dalasan e/w @ 18/1 with Betfair (William Hill 12/1 for 5 places)   Finche e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 (William Hill 9/1 for 5 places)

I have 4 more bets across the cards at Caulfield and Randwick
Caulfield R7 (5.45am)
Hard not to be impressed with Alfa Oro of late and his record is now 6/8. I put him up last time despite the fact he was dropping down to 955m at The Valley last time and he bolted up in a BM84. He steps up into G2 company for the first time, but he looks more than up to it based on times and the visual performances. He is the improver against a more exposed field and is drawn in 2 so should be able to get a handy position.
Alfa Oro @ 11/10 with William Hill
Caulfield R10 (7.45am)
Pretty Brazen for me in this G2 that ends the card. She has been running well so fair this prep. She won a G2 at Flemington last month beating Arcadia Queen and then finished 3rd in a G1 over course and distance a week later with the winner being Behemoth. So the form of both races is strong. She got no luck at all last time at Flemington and she would have finished close with a clear run. She will need luck in running again, but it is a small field so it should be easier for her jockey here.
Pretty Brazen @ 18/5 with Bet365
Randwick R5 (4.50am)
The Koscuiszko is a great idea that I think would work well over here and I am going with the favourite It's Me who has looked a superstar in waiting. She has a blistering turn of foot and although she has never been 1200m in her 3 starts to date it doesn't look like it will be an issue for her. It isn't hard to think that further down the line she could be an Everest horse.
It's Me @ 5/4 with Bet365
Randwick R6 (5.25am)
This is basically the race for horses that didn't get a run in The Everest and Deprive looks the best of them. He landed this race last year and his return in the G2 Premiere when 3rd to Libertini is obviously a strong piece of form and it should put him spot on to land this prize for the 2nd year running.
Deprive @ 15/8 with Betfair

Saturday could well be the best ever day's racing in Australia given we have The Everest at Randwick and the Caulfield Cup, which features plenty of European interest. I have done a runner-by-runner guide for both races. 
Nature Strip - The world's best sprinter has been disappointing in both starts so far this prep, but there have been excuses. He has a shocking record 1st up so it wasn't a huge surprise that he was beaten by Gytrash. 2nd up he went back to his very keen ways which he looked to be over and it wasn't a big shock he faded badly. That was explained though by the fact he was found to have mucus on his lings after the race. His trainer his happy with him and if he is at his best last year's 4th is the one they all have to beat.   Trekking - Beat Gytrash in the Goodwood in May and was a good 2nd 1st up in the Moir at Moonee Valley over 1000m last month. Was a really good 3rd in this last year and he certainly seems in decent form given the merit of the run last time.   Classique Legend - Was 6th in this last year when not getting a great deal of luck and has come back looking an improved horse. He landed a Listed race in June here in really good fashion before returning last month to win the G2 Shorts. Again he looked good that day, but he was then beaten by Libertini in the Premiere over course and distance a couple of weeks ago. He didn't get much cover that day though and I do think he can reverse that form now he has a better draw which should allow him to get some cover. He has a leading chance.   Santa Ana Lane - Has been a superb sprinter and was 2nd in this last year, but he just doesn't seem to be as good as he used to be and would be a surprise winner for me.   Behemoth - What a story this horse is given he only cost $6000 and is part of a syndicate whose members must be pretty excited. He was 4th behind Trekking in The Goodwood at Morphettville in May, but he was too far back in a big field that day and always had too much to do. This prep he is 3/3 including winning 2 G1's over 1400m at Caulfield. He will be charging late back down in trip and he could easily fill the frame given the form he's in, but I'm just not sure he will be quick enough to get there before they hit the post.   Bivouac - Won the G1 Newmarket at Flemington back in March, but that is a handicap and he has often finished behind most of these in WFA races including being 3rd in The Shorts to Classique Legend.   Gytrash - Is very consistent and landed the G1 Lightning at Flemington back in February. Was just denied by Trekking in The Goodwood and was locked into this race after that. That means that his prep could be built around this contest and he didn't have to try and run his way into a slot. Looked good in beating Nature Strip in the Concorde, but 1st up could have been the right time to catch him. Having said that he nearly always goes close and he is a player.   Eduardo - Is certainly progressing and showed some good form when winning twice at Rosehill including a G2. That came on a Heavy 9 track though and I just wonder if he needs it wet to be seen at his best. Was 2nd behind Classique Legend in The Shorts.   Dollar For Dollar - Looks outclassed in this field.   Tofane - A G1 winner over 1400m back in the autumn and I thought he was a bit unlucky at Flemington last time when he was only 5th as he didn't get much luck in running. I think over this level he would want a wet track.   Libertini - Has won half of her 10 career starts, but disappointed in the Autumn in 2 starts, but did finish lame in the Newmarket. Returned with a superb effort to win the Premiere beating Classique Legend by 2L as well as having Nature Strip in behind. If she backs that up is has a massive chance, but she has drawn badly in 12 and she is going to need luck from there.   Haut Brion Her - Has won 6 of her 10 starts and finished 2nd in 3 more. She is clearly good, but she hasn't been anywhere near this level yet and doubtful she can win this.   Verdict - I have to stick with Nature Strip. For me he is the best horse in the race and given his dire 1st up record and the fact he had mucus in his lungs last time means I can forgive him his two runs this prep. Classique Legend had a tough run last time and is drawn well here so should be able to get a kinder run. He looks the main danger. Gytrash never knows how to run a bad race and it is hard to see him not finish in the frame. Behemoth will be flying late and if the front runners are stopping he might well pick them up.   Nature Strip @ 4/1 with Bet365   Caulfield Cup Anthony Van Dyck - Was slightly surprised to see last year's Derby winner on the plane to Australia, but it seems like Aidan is keen again to win the big Australian races. He has the best form in the race although was beating Stradivarius last time in a crawl really a top class effort? I'm not so sure. He has a terrible draw in 21 so Hugh is going to have to decide if he is going to go forward or take a pull and drop him out. I suspect he will do the former as there doesn't look a great deal of pace in the race. It would be no surprise if he won, but I want to take him on.   Avilius - The Avilius from last Autumn would have a huge chance, but he has been below that in his last 2 preps and his Melbourne form has always been poor so not for me.   Vow And Declare - A superb 2nd in this last year, before winning the big one at Flemington, but has not shown great form since and I can't have him matching last year's effort let alone go one place better.   Buckhurst - Never won over this far and did seem to be given a bit of a quiet run behind Tiger Moth last time so I wouldn't completely rule him out as I suspect the way a 2400m race is usually run in Australia is going to suit him.   Mirage Dancer - Loved his run in this last year when he was 3rd, but he was a bit keen in the Melbourne Cup and was only 14th although not beaten far. I don't think he really stays that far either. Had run some solid races in Australia after that, but topped the lot when beating Mugatoo in the Met at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I like that form as Mugatoo has been flying this prep and he's not out of this.   Mustajeer - Has got the odd bit of form since moving out here which would give him some sort of chance, but he was only 9th behind Mirage Dancer last time.   Verry Elleegant - A genuine G1 horse who was the one who chased Addeybb home in the Queen Elizabeth in April. Returned to land the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August which was some effort. She disappointed on her next start, but then bounced straight back when landing the G1 Turnbull last time on a quicker track than she usually favours. With rain around there should be some cut which is perfect for her and I think she has a big chance.   Dashing Willoughby - Did win a Listed Race over this trip at Newmarket in June, but not hard to think this is being used as a prep for the Melbourne Cup.   Finche - Ran well in this last year when finishing 5th after finishing 2nd in the Turnbull which he was 3rd in this year. Was favourite in last year's Melbourne Cup as well when finishing 7th although only beaten just over a length. 3rd up he should be ready to peak and is one for the shortlist.   Prince Of Arran - Thrives so much in Australia I am surprised they don't keep him there. Sure to run well although he will be using this as a run to get him ready for the main one next month.    Master Of Wine - Wasn't far behind Verry Elleegant last time and is weighted to beat her here. Is 1/1 over this trip and he has been getting better with every start this prep. Another one in with a chance.   The Chosen One - Well beaten by Chapada last week and hard to see him featuring.   Warning - Won the Victoria Derby last year over 2500m and caught the eye last time in the Turnbull when finishing 6th. He clocked the fastest final 600m/400m and 200m splits in the race and is clearly crying out for this trip or further. The concern for me is the wide draw as he is surely going to have to settle nearer last than first and he is going to need plenty of luck in running if he is going to win. That is enough to put me off, but I think he is good enough to win.   Dalasan - Was 2nd to Russian Camelot and in front of Warning in the South Australian Derby in May. Has since run well over shorter trips and then finished a neck behind Verry Elleegant by a neck in the Turnbull. Is weighted to overturn that form and can see him running well again. His jockey William Pike is flying at the moment as well.   True Self - Don't think a great deal of her form in Ireland and the Ebor this season, but did finish 2nd in the Geelong Cup and won the Queen Elizabeth at Flemington after that. Does have a good draw, but has work to do for me.   Toffee Tongue - Was 2nd in the Turnbull and again another who at these weights could beat the winner. Has only actually won once in 12 starts although that was the G1 Australasian Oaks back in May. That is over 200m although she had run well over this trip before. If she repeats the last time run she isn't out of this.   Chapada - Did me a good turn last week when winning the Herbert Power, but this looks harder and even though he has a low weight and is in great form, I am not sure he is up to winning this.   Raheen House - Gets in as first emergency, but not really in good enough form to win this.   Verdict - I know those in behind Verry Elleegant last time are weighted to reverse the form, but I don't think they well and with the likelihood of a wet track that only enhances her chances.  As much as Anthony Van Dyck could win this if at his best I am happy to leave him out of the equation so my main dangers are Mirage Dancer, who looks overpriced, Finche is so consistent and gives Chris Waller a strong 2nd contender and Dalasan with William Pike looks to be building up to this. Master Of Wine, Warning (if overcoming the draw), Buckhurst and Toffee Tongue are just behind them as well.   Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Betfair   Mirage Dancer e/w @ 25/1 with Betfair (William Hill 16/1 for 5 places)   Dalasan e/w @ 18/1 with Betfair (William Hill 12/1 for 5 places)   Finche e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 (William Hill 9/1 for 5 places)

Saturday could well be the best ever day's racing in Australia given we have The Everest at Randwick and the Caulfield Cup, which features plenty of European interest. I have done a runner-by-runner guide for both races. 
Nature Strip - The world's best sprinter has been disappointing in both starts so far this prep, but there have been excuses. He has a shocking record 1st up so it wasn't a huge surprise that he was beaten by Gytrash. 2nd up he went back to his very keen ways which he looked to be over and it wasn't a big shock he faded badly. That was explained though by the fact he was found to have mucus on his lings after the race. His trainer his happy with him and if he is at his best last year's 4th is the one they all have to beat.   Trekking - Beat Gytrash in the Goodwood in May and was a good 2nd 1st up in the Moir at Moonee Valley over 1000m last month. Was a really good 3rd in this last year and he certainly seems in decent form given the merit of the run last time.   Classique Legend - Was 6th in this last year when not getting a great deal of luck and has come back looking an improved horse. He landed a Listed race in June here in really good fashion before returning last month to win the G2 Shorts. Again he looked good that day, but he was then beaten by Libertini in the Premiere over course and distance a couple of weeks ago. He didn't get much cover that day though and I do think he can reverse that form now he has a better draw which should allow him to get some cover. He has a leading chance.   Santa Ana Lane - Has been a superb sprinter and was 2nd in this last year, but he just doesn't seem to be as good as he used to be and would be a surprise winner for me.   Behemoth - What a story this horse is given he only cost $6000 and is part of a syndicate whose members must be pretty excited. He was 4th behind Trekking in The Goodwood at Morphettville in May, but he was too far back in a big field that day and always had too much to do. This prep he is 3/3 including winning 2 G1's over 1400m at Caulfield. He will be charging late back down in trip and he could easily fill the frame given the form he's in, but I'm just not sure he will be quick enough to get there before they hit the post.   Bivouac - Won the G1 Newmarket at Flemington back in March, but that is a handicap and he has often finished behind most of these in WFA races including being 3rd in The Shorts to Classique Legend.   Gytrash - Is very consistent and landed the G1 Lightning at Flemington back in February. Was just denied by Trekking in The Goodwood and was locked into this race after that. That means that his prep could be built around this contest and he didn't have to try and run his way into a slot. Looked good in beating Nature Strip in the Concorde, but 1st up could have been the right time to catch him. Having said that he nearly always goes close and he is a player.   Eduardo - Is certainly progressing and showed some good form when winning twice at Rosehill including a G2. That came on a Heavy 9 track though and I just wonder if he needs it wet to be seen at his best. Was 2nd behind Classique Legend in The Shorts.   Dollar For Dollar - Looks outclassed in this field.   Tofane - A G1 winner over 1400m back in the autumn and I thought he was a bit unlucky at Flemington last time when he was only 5th as he didn't get much luck in running. I think over this level he would want a wet track.   Libertini - Has won half of her 10 career starts, but disappointed in the Autumn in 2 starts, but did finish lame in the Newmarket. Returned with a superb effort to win the Premiere beating Classique Legend by 2L as well as having Nature Strip in behind. If she backs that up is has a massive chance, but she has drawn badly in 12 and she is going to need luck from there.   Haut Brion Her - Has won 6 of her 10 starts and finished 2nd in 3 more. She is clearly good, but she hasn't been anywhere near this level yet and doubtful she can win this.   Verdict - I have to stick with Nature Strip. For me he is the best horse in the race and given his dire 1st up record and the fact he had mucus in his lungs last time means I can forgive him his two runs this prep. Classique Legend had a tough run last time and is drawn well here so should be able to get a kinder run. He looks the main danger. Gytrash never knows how to run a bad race and it is hard to see him not finish in the frame. Behemoth will be flying late and if the front runners are stopping he might well pick them up.   Nature Strip @ 4/1 with Bet365   Caulfield Cup Anthony Van Dyck - Was slightly surprised to see last year's Derby winner on the plane to Australia, but it seems like Aidan is keen again to win the big Australian races. He has the best form in the race although was beating Stradivarius last time in a crawl really a top class effort? I'm not so sure. He has a terrible draw in 21 so Hugh is going to have to decide if he is going to go forward or take a pull and drop him out. I suspect he will do the former as there doesn't look a great deal of pace in the race. It would be no surprise if he won, but I want to take him on.   Avilius - The Avilius from last Autumn would have a huge chance, but he has been below that in his last 2 preps and his Melbourne form has always been poor so not for me.   Vow And Declare - A superb 2nd in this last year, before winning the big one at Flemington, but has not shown great form since and I can't have him matching last year's effort let alone go one place better.   Buckhurst - Never won over this far and did seem to be given a bit of a quiet run behind Tiger Moth last time so I wouldn't completely rule him out as I suspect the way a 2400m race is usually run in Australia is going to suit him.   Mirage Dancer - Loved his run in this last year when he was 3rd, but he was a bit keen in the Melbourne Cup and was only 14th although not beaten far. I don't think he really stays that far either. Had run some solid races in Australia after that, but topped the lot when beating Mugatoo in the Met at Randwick a couple of weeks ago. I like that form as Mugatoo has been flying this prep and he's not out of this.   Mustajeer - Has got the odd bit of form since moving out here which would give him some sort of chance, but he was only 9th behind Mirage Dancer last time.   Verry Elleegant - A genuine G1 horse who was the one who chased Addeybb home in the Queen Elizabeth in April. Returned to land the Winx Stakes over 1400m in August which was some effort. She disappointed on her next start, but then bounced straight back when landing the G1 Turnbull last time on a quicker track than she usually favours. With rain around there should be some cut which is perfect for her and I think she has a big chance.   Dashing Willoughby - Did win a Listed Race over this trip at Newmarket in June, but not hard to think this is being used as a prep for the Melbourne Cup.   Finche - Ran well in this last year when finishing 5th after finishing 2nd in the Turnbull which he was 3rd in this year. Was favourite in last year's Melbourne Cup as well when finishing 7th although only beaten just over a length. 3rd up he should be ready to peak and is one for the shortlist.   Prince Of Arran - Thrives so much in Australia I am surprised they don't keep him there. Sure to run well although he will be using this as a run to get him ready for the main one next month.    Master Of Wine - Wasn't far behind Verry Elleegant last time and is weighted to beat her here. Is 1/1 over this trip and he has been getting better with every start this prep. Another one in with a chance.   The Chosen One - Well beaten by Chapada last week and hard to see him featuring.   Warning - Won the Victoria Derby last year over 2500m and caught the eye last time in the Turnbull when finishing 6th. He clocked the fastest final 600m/400m and 200m splits in the race and is clearly crying out for this trip or further. The concern for me is the wide draw as he is surely going to have to settle nearer last than first and he is going to need plenty of luck in running if he is going to win. That is enough to put me off, but I think he is good enough to win.   Dalasan - Was 2nd to Russian Camelot and in front of Warning in the South Australian Derby in May. Has since run well over shorter trips and then finished a neck behind Verry Elleegant by a neck in the Turnbull. Is weighted to overturn that form and can see him running well again. His jockey William Pike is flying at the moment as well.   True Self - Don't think a great deal of her form in Ireland and the Ebor this season, but did finish 2nd in the Geelong Cup and won the Queen Elizabeth at Flemington after that. Does have a good draw, but has work to do for me.   Toffee Tongue - Was 2nd in the Turnbull and again another who at these weights could beat the winner. Has only actually won once in 12 starts although that was the G1 Australasian Oaks back in May. That is over 200m although she had run well over this trip before. If she repeats the last time run she isn't out of this.   Chapada - Did me a good turn last week when winning the Herbert Power, but this looks harder and even though he has a low weight and is in great form, I am not sure he is up to winning this.   Raheen House - Gets in as first emergency, but not really in good enough form to win this.   Verdict - I know those in behind Verry Elleegant last time are weighted to reverse the form, but I don't think they well and with the likelihood of a wet track that only enhances her chances.  As much as Anthony Van Dyck could win this if at his best I am happy to leave him out of the equation so my main dangers are Mirage Dancer, who looks overpriced, Finche is so consistent and gives Chris Waller a strong 2nd contender and Dalasan with William Pike looks to be building up to this. Master Of Wine, Warning (if overcoming the draw), Buckhurst and Toffee Tongue are just behind them as well.   Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Betfair   Mirage Dancer e/w @ 25/1 with Betfair (William Hill 16/1 for 5 places)   Dalasan e/w @ 18/1 with Betfair (William Hill 12/1 for 5 places)   Finche e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 (William Hill 9/1 for 5 places)

Plenty of Group race action on Wednesday at Caulfield and 2 races make betting appeal.
R2 (4am)
The Coongy Cup is the last chance for a horse to get themselves a place in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday. Al Galayel and Django Freeman are the 2 horses still entered on Saturday and I like the former. He has won 3 on the bounce now and was especially impressive when winning the JRA Cup by just over 2L at Moonee Valley last month. He beat a good field over course and distance the time before and if he carries that form on then I think he wins this again.
Al Galayel @ 8/5 with Bet365
R5 (5.45am)
Saracen Knight is an ex-Irish horse who didn't see a racecourse for 2 years when going to Australia and he ran a solid race 1st up over 1600m at Moonee Valley. He then went up to 2000m and finished his race off well to win here at the end of last month. He goes up to 2400m here and given his form in Ireland that should suit him so there is every chance there is more to come 3rd up and up in trip.
I do want Masaff onside as well. His last run in Victoria he was 2nd to Chapada at Flemington over 2500m in June which is clearly good form. After that he went back to Sydney and has run 3 times since August 22nd all over shorter trips. I think all 3 runs had credit and clearly going up to this sort of trip is going to suit and he looks over priced to me here.
Saracen Knight @ 9/5 with Bet365
Masaff @ 15/2 with William Hill

Plenty of Group race action on Wednesday at Caulfield and 2 races make betting appeal.
R2 (4am)
The Coongy Cup is the last chance for a horse to get themselves a place in the Caulfield Cup on Saturday. Al Galayel and Django Freeman are the 2 horses still entered on Saturday and I like the former. He has won 3 on the bounce now and was especially impressive when winning the JRA Cup by just over 2L at Moonee Valley last month. He beat a good field over course and distance the time before and if he carries that form on then I think he wins this again.
Al Galayel @ 8/5 with Bet365
R5 (5.45am)
Saracen Knight is an ex-Irish horse who didn't see a racecourse for 2 years when going to Australia and he ran a solid race 1st up over 1600m at Moonee Valley. He then went up to 2000m and finished his race off well to win here at the end of last month. He goes up to 2400m here and given his form in Ireland that should suit him so there is every chance there is more to come 3rd up and up in trip.
I do want Masaff onside as well. His last run in Victoria he was 2nd to Chapada at Flemington over 2500m in June which is clearly good form. After that he went back to Sydney and has run 3 times since August 22nd all over shorter trips. I think all 3 runs had credit and clearly going up to this sort of trip is going to suit and he looks over priced to me here.
Saracen Knight @ 9/5 with Bet365
Masaff @ 15/2 with William Hill