Handicap Races - What Is The Most Important Stat To Consider In Horse Selection

[Dukelord]

Can someone please advise? I am fairly new to horse racing and I am trying to come up with a reliable system. What is the key stat to consider when selecting for various race lengths - 5f, 6f, 7f, 1m, 1m2f, 1m4f, 1m6f and 2m.

Thanks in advance.

[Darran]

I'm not sure there a key stat at various race distances. Obviously the draw can play a part at certain tracks over certain distances.

[richard-westwood]

I dont think you can pick out one key stat in horse racing especially at different distances .....if someone tied me down and said pick one or die ..lol...I'd probably say a recent run (within 30 days on flat) (42 on jumps ) .....I've found this to be a huge factor consistently over the years 

[John W]

I agree with a recent run. There's not really one piece of information to give you an edge because each horse is different. One horses temprement might make up 70% of its chance where as another might be easy going and give it's running cpnsistantly. Fitness is the only thing I can think is vital really. But on the other side of the argument some horses don't perform well when turned out quickly for a second run in say a week or five days

[Trotter]

On 10/14/2020 at 4:25 PM, Dukelord said:

Can someone please advise? I am fairly new to horse racing and I am trying to come up with a reliable system. What is the key stat to consider when selecting for various race lengths - 5f, 6f, 7f, 1m, 1m2f, 1m4f, 1m6f and 2m.

Thanks in advance.

I think for any race distance the two key things to base your selection on are Class and Conditions

Pick horses that have already proven they can win this class of race or are lightly raced improving types still climbing the ladder and not yet reached their peak which promise to take this class of race in their stride

Pick horses that have run well at today's trip, on today's going and on today's track or similar tracks ....... this does tend to mean looking at races for older horses who have a chunk of back form to look at

If you're new to the sport I think it's more difficult looking at 2 year old races or 3 year old maidens where the horses haven't run much if at all and there's no form to go on ......... in those races you're looking at breeding, trainer's methods of preparing horses, type of horse owned by different connections and trainers ...... this depends on building up knowledge over time and experience

Easier to look at races where the horses have plenty of form to look at ....... so this will mainly be handicaps and conditions races for older horses

By the way ...... there is no such thing as a reliable system* ..... you have to assess each horse's merits and chance and take it from there !

* in my opinion ....... 

[Dukelord]

Thanks a lot. Still coming to terms with some of the terminology but can you please clarify what you mean by "Class". Thank you.

[Trotter]

35 minutes ago, Dukelord said:

Thanks a lot. Still coming to terms with some of the terminology but can you please clarify what you mean by "Class". Thank you.

No problem

Assuming you're looking at UK racing there is a class structure of races

The top level of racing is 'Pattern' or Group Races (grade Races over Jumps). There races are divided into Group 1, Group 2, Group 3 and Listed in descending order. The Group 1 races are the top races that you will have heard of -  The Derby, Oaks, Giuineas etc. These tend to be competed for by the best horses in Europe or indeed the World. The Group 2,3 and Listed races are usually competed by horses within each country

Below these Pattern races the UK has a system of Classes .......... Class 2, 3, 4, 5,. 6,and 7

As you go down the classes the prize money gets less and the races are competed for by lower grade horses

To put it simply if you are looking at a Class 3 race and are tempted by a horse at 10/1 have a look what classes of race it's won or competed in. If it's only gone well in class 5 and 6 races you would want to be backing it in a class 3 because the horses it's running against today will be much better than the ones in the races it's won

In handicaps as horses win races their handicap mark goes up which forces them into the next higher grade of race ........

In non-handicaps there is a system of added weight for running in the same grade that you've won in which also has the purpose of forcing horses up in grade as they win

The over-riding aim is to provide competitive races full of horses of around the same ability level

 

[Dukelord]

This is the best explanation I've come across online. Thank you so much. Could you please elaborate on the "Type" terminology? For instance, "Hc" vs "HcF". Thanks.

[alexcaruso808]

I have found it beneficial to look at what other people tip and then look at the race card and try to work out why they have tipped that horse.  Look at that specific horse's previous runs, previous handicaps (if applicable) and compare to the handicap they are running under on the given day.  Look at the age compared to other horses, the jockey, the trainer.   There is a lot to take into consideration.

[Trotter]

2 hours ago, Trotter said:

To put it simply if you are looking at a Class 3 race and are tempted by a horse at 10/1 have a look what classes of race it's won or competed in. If it's only gone well in class 5 and 6 races you would want to be backing it in a class 3 because the horses it's running against today will be much better than the ones in the races it's won

 

just realised i made a typo there ...... you wouldn't want to be backing it in a class 3 

[Trotter]

2 hours ago, Dukelord said:

This is the best explanation I've come across online. Thank you so much. Could you please elaborate on the "Type" terminology? For instance, "Hc" vs "HcF". Thanks.

I'm guessing you're taking these from the abbreviated race descriptions in a horse's previous form

Hc is usually short for 'Handicap' signifying that it was a handicap race

HcF is usually short for Handicap Fillies signifying that it was a handicap race limited to female horses

you might see a number referring to the age of horse that can run in the race

eg 3yHc which would denote a handicap limited to 3 year old horses

If you're looking at the Racing Post they normally put the race Class first so you might see C33yHc ...... which would be a Class 3 Handicap race restricted to 3 year old horses

Have a look at the previous form for Rayong, running today at Catterick

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/2455901/rayong/form

it's last two runs at Ayr and Chester were  C2Hc so these were class 2 handicaps. No age shown so they were open to horses of all ages 3 year old plus (two year old have their own races restricted to themselves)

The previous run at Pontefract was a C33yHc ....... so that a class 3 handicap limited to 3 year old horses

At Ascot - a class 2 handicap for 3 year olds

Notice that it won in class 3 but was well beaten in the three class 2 races

[Dukelord]

This is splendid. I now have new information on what to look for. Do you by chance have a tipping page/telegram/twitter? Thanks.

[Trotter]

No, afraid not ...... but have a look around the forum 

there are plenty of tips .............. on the daily threads starting 'Racing Chat'

on the thread '£20 A Day'

but in the long term you want to making your own selections ......... that's what the fun is.

Studying the form, assessing the horses, making a choice and hopefully being proved right and picking up a winning bet

 

 

[Dukelord]

15 minutes ago, Trotter said:

No, afraid not ...... but have a look around the forum 

there are plenty of tips .............. on the daily threads starting 'Racing Chat'

on the thread '£20 A Day'

but in the long term you want to making your own selections ......... that's what the fun is.

Studying the form, assessing the horses, making a choice and hopefully being proved right and picking up a winning bet

 

 

Thanks a lot. Really learnt a lot today with the Classes info. Let's hope I can improve. Cheers mate.

[alexcaruso808]

1 hour ago, Dukelord said:

This is splendid. I now have new information on what to look for. Do you by chance have a tipping page/telegram/twitter? Thanks.

IMO I would advise against paying for tips on the likes of Telegram or Facebook Messenger.  Majority of them are scammers who manipulate their profit and loss figures.  Loads of brilliant free tips on here from a lot of very knowledgable people.  

[Dukelord]

3 hours ago, Trotter said:

No, afraid not ...... but have a look around the forum 

there are plenty of tips .............. on the daily threads starting 'Racing Chat'

on the thread '£20 A Day'

but in the long term you want to making your own selections ......... that's what the fun is.

Studying the form, assessing the horses, making a choice and hopefully being proved right and picking up a winning bet

 

 

I bet only on handicap races. However, what sort of handicap races do you recommend I avoid?

[Trotter]

26 minutes ago, Dukelord said:

I bet only on handicap races. However, what sort of handicap races do you recommend I avoid?

Well it's a matter of choice

Some people get a lot of pleasure from picking the winner of a very competitive 20 runner handicap with lots of improving horses running for big money ........ eg, the big handicap race on Saturday afternoon on TV or the handicaps at the big Festivals

I tend to avoid those races because I like to spend a lot of time looking at each runner and that would take me all day to assess one of those races. 

So I prefer to look at races with single figure number of  runners where I can narrow it down pretty quickly to two or three who might have a chance and take it from there

You find out what your preferences are and stick to it !

 

[Dukelord]

Thanks for the feedback