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black_baar

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  1. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Dec 13th - 16th   
    Due to increasing workload on me, I am not able to follow Turkish Lig matches closely these days. No doubt, Basaksehir is clear favorites, but Aykut Kocaman's Konyaspor is always capable of making things ugly with 10 men defensive approach. To be honest, Basaksehir to win to nil is better choise than HT/FT.
    Meanwhile, I think Trabzonspor will win against Denizlispor fairly easily as well. Over goals options are also on the cards. Good luck!
  2. Like
    black_baar reacted to StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Dec 13th - 16th   
    Istanbul Basaksehir vs Konyaspor
    The weekly Turkish Super Lig preview for the Monday game is Istanbul Basaksehir vs Konyaspor which kicks off at 5pm GMT today at the Fatih Terim Stadium. Apologies for this going out later than usual. My internet has been an absolute... well, I don't need to use blasphemous language on here but we've all been there. Anyway, let's crack on with the analysis.
    Istanbul Basaksehir are slightly behind the pace of surprise league leaders Sivasspor in the table with 26 points from their 14 games played. This has left Okan Buruk's men in 4th place and 7 points off the title pace. They come into this game knowing they have strong results behind them at home with just 1 loss on home turf in the league this season. That single home loss was also one of two defeats that they started the season with. Since that second game, it's been an undefeated run of 12 league games. A spell of form that's included four clean sheets.
    Konyaspor are not doing quite as well this season. Manager Aykut Kocaman has seen his team fall to 14th in the table and lie just 2 points above the relegation zone. Results have been atrocious lately for the struggling side. It's now 8 matches in all competitions without a win. Granted, there's been some tricky games in that run but the Turkish Cup 4th Round defeat to Eyupsor was an example of how their campaign is going.
    In my mind, there is no doubt that Istanbul Basaksehir should win this game. I'm going to put some faith in their defence to keep a clean sheet and I think their improvement in home results recently based on the ELO ratings suggests that they're beginning to build momentum? Is this the continuing phase of an Istanbul Basaksehir title push? They've got a long way to go but they're a team certainly worth backing here!
    Istanbul Basaksehir to Win to Nil @ 2.40 with BetVictor
    Istanbul Basaksehir HT/FT @ 2.45 with Coral
    @black_baar, what do you think mate?
  3. Like
    black_baar reacted to StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Nov 29th - Dec 2nd   
    Besiktas vs Kayserispor
    The weekly Turkish Super Lig preview is back and after last week's spot on call we're looking to continue that run of accurate predictions here. This round I'm looking to cover the one-sided match-up between title contenders Besiktas and lowly-placed Kayserispor when they meet in a 5pm GMT kick-off at the Vodafone Park on Monday afternoon. Good old modern football stadium names!
    Besiktas endured a slow start to their league campaign with just 1 win in their first 6 league games. Manager Abdullah Avci has managed to turn things around and it's now a run of 6 league games without defeat including four straight wins in a row. The club is now up to 5th in the table and just 3 points off the pace of league leaders Sivasspor. An unbeaten record at home will also give them huge confidence coming into this game.
    Things are not quite so positive for Kayserispor. Manager Bulent Uygun has been unable to rectify the poor start his team had to the season that saw them fall way below the standards set last season by dropping to the foot of the table. It's now just 7 points from their 12 games this campaign and the club is now 5 points adrift of safety. Brief hope with back-to-back wins has been extinguished over the past couple of games with defeats to Genclerbirligi and Sivasspor.
    It's just 2 points picked up on the road for Kayserispor and with 15 goals conceded during those 6 matches, this could be painful for the away side. Besiktas are a team building momentum and they are particularly lethal at home. It's no surprise the bookies are backing the home team but I think Besiktas are not only likely to win this game but they could cause a rout here.
    Besiktas -1 @ 1.80 with Bet365
    Besiktas HT/FT @ 1.87 with Coral
    @black_baar and @vratislav, what do you guys think for this game?
  4. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Nov 8th - 10th   
    Fenerbahce important missings : Emre Belozoglu, Max Kruse
    Kasimpasaspor important missings: David Pavelka, Mame Thiam, Ricardo Quaresma, Veysel Sarı, Ramazan Kose
    Last week, Fenerbahce lost to Kayserispor 1-0 on road. However, Fenerbahce totally dominated, 23 goal attempts with 11 shoots on target and two posts. I would surely have advised to bet on Fenerbahce last week since I thought that kind of domination before the match and lost
    Emre Belozoglu is a key player. Max Kruse is very important as well for creativity and assists. Keeping these factors in mind, I still think that Fenerbahce will bounce and get a clear victory in their home stadium. Fenerbahce handicap -1 is my bet today.
    Please dont get me mad if Fenerbahce loses again like last week
  5. Thanks
    black_baar got a reaction from laprikon in Europa League Predictions > Nov 6th & 7th   
    Sorry, I saw it too late. Apart from the long time injuries like Abdulkadir Omur and Caleb Ekuan, Sturridge, Mikel, Sosa are added to injury list. Also regular starters like Sorloth, Nwakame, Novak and even goalkeeper Ugurcan are benched for this match. All mentioned bets are fine. Unlike Galatasaray yesterday, Trabzonspor players would have some fighting spirit at least on the pitch. 
  6. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Europa League Predictions > Nov 6th & 7th   
    Sorry, I saw it too late. Apart from the long time injuries like Abdulkadir Omur and Caleb Ekuan, Sturridge, Mikel, Sosa are added to injury list. Also regular starters like Sorloth, Nwakame, Novak and even goalkeeper Ugurcan are benched for this match. All mentioned bets are fine. Unlike Galatasaray yesterday, Trabzonspor players would have some fighting spirit at least on the pitch. 
  7. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Oct 25th - 28th   
    Agreed with your selection Stevie!
    I am also tempted to play on Gençlerbirliği. By The couple of weeks Gençlerbirliği team improved. Denizlispor started The season with a spectacular win against Galatasaray. But, by then  they keep decreasing their form.
  8. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Oct 25th - 28th   
    I like the odds for overs in gaziantep alanya match, two offensive minded teams.
    konyaspor is a tough nut to crack, team can defense very well, but The goalkeeper made a silly mistake last weekend and cannot play against Fenerbahçe (red card). Kruse is injured and missing. Anyways, I like to play for Fenerbahçe winning in front of their fans.
     
  9. Thanks
    black_baar reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 22nd   
    A small profit on Saturday thanks to Dulwich, Harrogate and Hartlepool. Was nearly so much better with 3 of the other bets drawing but certainly happy to keep things ticking over. Onto tonight and I have 4 bets.
    Kidderminster v Farsley Celtic
    The home side usually get backed from the Asian punters and this has happened yet again with this match tonight. Earlier this morning Farsley themselves had been backed into 6/5 and then the market has made a massive shift towards Kiddie and they are as short as evens now. The reason the Asian market punters love Kiddie is I think because they always seem to produce good stats on the shots both for and against side of things. This of course though doesn't actually mean a great deal in my view when it comes to results on the pitch especially at this level. They have only managed 4 wins in the league this season and have been dumped out of the FA Cup by lower league opposition. I watch a lot of Step 2 football in the flesh and I can be pretty certain that the stats that are produced actually have little baring on what the quality of the shots during the game actually are. Kiddie fans have said how poor they have been and their league position certainly backs that up. The other key thing for me here is the fact they haven't played a game of football since September 28th. As Stafford knocked them out of the FA Cup they didn't have a game for 2 of those Saturday's and then they missed the other because of international call-ups. I used to think that time off like that was helpful at this stage of the season, but actually I am not sure it is anymore. The bets I have had on the back of these sort of breaks have usually lost because in actual fact the team are ring rusty having not kicked a ball in anger for so long. They did beat Altrincham in their last home league game on September 14th, but then Altrincham are yet to win away from home this season and are below Kiddie in the table. They have finally been taken over so there should be more positivity around the club and they have made one new signing so far. I suspect more will follow, but it will take time to overhaul a disappointing squad. Celtic have done superbly well so far after gaining promotion last season and have won 5 games on the bounce. Now I do have to add here that they have had a pretty kind fixture list. They have beaten Bradford Park Avenue, Kettering, Leamington, Curzon and then on Saturday Alfreton. That isn't a great bunch apart from Alfreton, but even they aren't in the best of form right now. However it does show they are scoring goals for fun as they have scored 15 goals in that time and they have scored in their last 9 league games. Obviously they won't be as fresh as the home side as they played on Saturday, but they will be match fit which could be the bigger factor. At 23/10 Celtic have to be the play as yet again Kiddie are way too short in the betting.
    AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Banbury
    The home side cost us on Saturday, but I am going to oppose them again here. Banbury have had a superb season so far and have only lost 1 of their last 9 games. They were involved in a thriller on Saturday against Biggleswade which they won 3-2 in injury time and I think they can back that up with a win here.
    St Ives Town v Royston Town
    I am a bit concerned about how the away side will react to blowing a good chance of getting to the First Round of the FA Cup on Saturday, but this does look a good game for them to try and bounce back in and they look way over priced. St Ives have got a lot of injured players and it looks doubtful about them getting any back for tonight. Last Tuesday they drew 4-4 with bottom side Leiston in a game described as one neither team deserved to win. They then lost 1-0 to an Alvechurch side who hadn't won a league game since August and they performed poorly again. Granted Royston haven't won in 4 league games but the two defeats were against Tamworth and Hednesford so they weren't expected to win either of them. I just can't have them as 3/1 shots to win this at all and that is a huge price.
    Stratford Town v Tamworth
    The home side look in a right mess at the moment and they have already used over 30 players this season. They sacked their manager a couple of weeks ago and they were forced to cut the budget as well as another 8 players left the team. It has been 10 days since they played a competitive game which they lost 3-0 Lowestoft which is their only win in 7 games and they have lost the other 6. Tamworth were my main bets for the title and they are nicely placed in 3rd after 11 games. They did lose to Darlington in the FA Cup at the weekend, but that was obviously much tougher than this and they will be hoping to get back to winning ways tonight. I think they ought to be odds on to win this so Betway's 7/5 looks too big.
    Farsely Celtic 2pts @ 23/10 with Bet365
    Banbury 1pt @ 44/25 with Marathon
    Royston 2pts @ 3/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway
    Tamworth 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Betway
  10. Like
    black_baar reacted to Horseoats in Non-League Predictions > October 7th-9th   
    Haters guna hate Darran, I’m glad you’ve ignored him. been following your posts for years and use a lot of what you put up to track and use further down the line, football and horses. Your non league knowledge is excellent and I’ve got a great couple of antepost bets running thanks to your info and input ? keep up the good work and please ignore the haters 
  11. Like
    black_baar reacted to Shep65 in Non-League Predictions > October 7th-9th   
    Clearly someone has just wandered in, seen a few bad results, probably has a poor money management approach to betting and has sulked. Darran has had some spectacular results consistently and if you're sensible enough to bank those and continue following at modest stakes you, like me, are already massively in profit and see the bigger picture.
    I know Darran backs his own tips as much as posting, so it's a joint venture. He doesn't really follow the classic "justification" way of Profit/loss that many paid for tipsters do.
    He just "does" and succeeds.

    Thanks Darran.
     
  12. Like
    black_baar reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 7th-9th   
    Must admit I have never really understood his posts so have just ignored him. I've had bad spells, but this past week has been one of the toughest I have had. Tonight Hartlepool defended terribly for the two goals and despite having lots of possession didn't do enough with it in the final 3rd. If people want to stop following that's up to them, but prior to Saturday I had a great couple of sessions with 4 late goals making a huge difference to things. I've been posting on here for nearly 10 years now and only a couple of times have I struggled on match betting so it is proven that I will nearly always make a profit over a season. Obviously I can never guarantee that as it is gambling at the end of the day, but hopefully come the end of April we will all be a few quid up. 
  13. Like
    black_baar reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - October 7 - October 13   
    Cameron Norrie to beat Gilles Simon at 1.95 with William Hill
    To me, this is priced on name. Sure, Simon is a big time player and by far the more accomplished guy of the two, but he's been sliding down over the last year or so and he usually struggles against players that are in some sort of a form and that can hit decently big. Norrie fits into both of those categories and the fact that he's played two qualifying matches here already can't hurt him either, so I'd have him as the favorite and not the Frenchman.
  14. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Oct 4th - 6th   
    Yeah, some interestin results in the Turkish Super Lig yet again proving it is one of the most difficult leagues to bet on.
    Antalyaspor's win in Istanbul was a total surprise for me like Goztepe's 4-0 score over Kayserispor. I was expecting Malatyaspor and Konyaspor getting results, but not that convincingly.
    For todays games, Sivasspor will probably win but the odds are not worth to bet, like Dever Orgill can cause upset to home team. Possible lineups :Sivasspor: Samassa, Goiano, Appindangoye, Caner Osmanpaşa, Uğur Çiftçi, Traore, Hakan Arslan, Mert Hakan Yandaş, Erdoğan Yeşilyurt, Fernando, Yatabare. Ankaragücü: Korcan, Kitsiou, Kulusic, Pazdan, Tiago Pinto, Moke, Faty, Hasan Kaya, Sedat Ağçay, İlhan Parlak, Dever Orgill. 
     
    Besiktas is having hard times in Super Lig this season and welcoming leader Alanyaspor today. I feel another upset for Besiktas today. Papiss Cisse is on fire for visitors. Possible lineups: BEŞİKTAŞ: Karius, Douglas, Vida, Ruiz, Caner, Atiba, Dorukhan, Ljajic, Diaby, N'Koudou, Burak Yılmaz. ALANYASPOR: Marafona, Baiano, Welinton, Caulker, N'Sakala, Siopis, Ceyhun, Efecan, Bakesetas, Fernandes, Cisse.
    I have nothing to add for Rizespor-Trabzonspor Match, Stevie's choices are reasonable.
    I am dissappointed by the Gazişehir last week against Goztepe.  With the increasing form of Basaksehir, I like to try Basaksehir win around 2.35 odds.
  15. Like
    black_baar reacted to StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Oct 4th - 6th   
    Caykur Rizespor vs Trabzonspor
    The Turkish Super Lig has already thrown up some interesting results this weekend with Konyaspor storming up to 2nd in the league with a 4-1 demolition of Kasimpasa today. Our preview focuses on the clash between Caykur Rizespor and Trabzonspor that is set to kick-off tomorrow afternoon at 5pm BST from the Yeni Rize Sehir Stadium. A win is key for both of these sides if they want to avoid dropping off the pace of their rivals.
    Caykur Rizespor are sitting in 13th in the table after 6 league games with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats. Ismail Kartal has seen his team struggle at home with the club only managing to 1 win from their first 3 home matches. It's now 4 matches without a win and with the team just 3 points above the relegation zone it is becoming important that they get back on the winning trail sooner rather than later. An average of 0.5 goals scored per game over their last 4 matches hasn't helped so scoring more goals will be a key target.
    Trabzonspor have had a slightly better start to their season with the club currently positioned in 6th place on 9 points and just 2 points off the European qualification spots. It's only 1 defeat in the league so far this season for Unal Karaman's side. The club's involvement in the Europa League has caused some concern over their form but it's now back-to-back games unbeaten so have they turned a corner having gone the previous 5 games without a win.
    The ELO ratings are slightly favouring an away win here. My gut instinct is pushing me to go for the draw because it's quite close to call but I fear for Caykur Rizespor this season. Their current form simply isn't good enough and Trabzonspor appear to be gaining a bit of momentum now. The draw at home to Basel in midweek was disappointing so they'll need to bounce back but at the price available I think the away side are worth backing.
    Trabzonspor to Win @ 2.62 with Bet365
    Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.68 with Marathonbet
    @black_baar and @vratislav, what bets are you guys looking at for Sunday's games?
  16. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Sep 27th - 30th   
    Galatasaray - Fenerbahce match will be a very tough and tense match. Red card is probable. Isla will be back and probably play. However, Left back and centre back will be still problematic for Fenerbahce. Rodrigues wont play. Tolga Cigerci(central midfielder) may play as a left winger instead. May be Victor Moses who is newly recovered from injury. 
    Younes Belhanda is injured for Galatsaray, but he may play with a special mask. 
    With home side advantage and missings for Fenerbahce, Galatasaray's chance of winning is more probable. However, it is big derby and anything can happen.
  17. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Sep 27th - 30th   
    I think Alanyaspor will win today against Sivasspor. Sivasspor won 2-1 against Trabzonspor last week, but I think that is not because of Sivasspor was good. Tranbzonspor is playing very bad after a very good start of th season. Emre Kilinc and Sergiy Rybalka wont play today.
  18. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Sep 27th - 30th   
    It was so clear that Basaksehir improved very much last two weeks. There were signs against Besiktas last week. Besiktas hardly got draw in their home stadium. Although Rizespor got 8 points, they are not more than mediocre. How could I miss and forgat writing here yesterday? Damn it!  
  19. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Sep 20th - 23rd   
    Good job!
  20. Like
    black_baar reacted to vratislav in Super Lig Predictions > Sep 20th - 23rd   
    Sivasspor - Trabzonspor
    This week we have good matches, one of them is between Sivasspor and Trabzonspor at Sivas. Both teams have bad team defence. Trabzonspor have conceded at least one goal in every matches, they have talented attacking footballers as Nwakaeme, Sturridge and may be Sörloth. Ekuban and Ömür are injured. On the other hand Sivasspor gain a draw last week against Başakşehir. Yatabare in a good form and want to score against his ancient club. Emre Kılınç, Yatabare, Fernando, Kone and Traore are attacking players for Sivasspor. Both team targetting three points in this match. In my opinion both teams to score here from 1,50.
     
    Edit : Sturridge not added to match squad because of injury.
     
    Both Teams To Score
  21. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Sep 20th - 23rd   
    Goztepe is the only team that has never score a single goal in the first 4 weeks. To strengthen their forward line, they transfered Mossoro and Napoleoni from Basaksehir just before the transfer season ends. 
    I hate the way Konyaspor plays. They play very defensively. However, they get results and 6 points. Their results up to now:
    Konyaspor 0-0 Ankaragucu
    Galatasaray 1-1 Konyaspor
    Konyaspor 2-2 Antalyaspor ( I recommended under 2.5 goals in that match? lol )
    Denizlispor 0-1 Konyaspor
    Possible lineups
    Göztepe: Beto, Gassama, Alpaslan, Titi, Berkan, Poko, Soner, Halil, Mossoro, Serdar, Napoleoni
    Konyaspor: Serkan, Skubic, Anicic, Ali, Alper, Jevtovic, Jonsson, Ömer Ali, Milosevic, Miya, Bajic
    Although there is a possibility that nonscoring team Goztepe may risk a lot in this match, under 2.5 goals is again quite reasonable. I also think that it is too early for Mossoro and Napoleoni to improve the team. Konyaspor X2 double chance is playable as well.
  22. Like
    black_baar reacted to branskie in Super Lig Predictions > Sep 13th - 16th   
    I see how you're saying Alanya faced some weaker clubs so far and that's the reason for theirs 1st place, but they do really play nice football, making lot of scoring chances... Even though Fenerbahce is bigger club and mayble slightly favorite I couldn't go against Alanya right now. I'm  not saying Fenerbahce won't win but over 3,5 & over 4,5 seems much safer option. Over 2,5 banker ...
  23. Like
    black_baar reacted to StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Sep 13th - 16th   
    Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahce
    The Turkish Super Lig has an intriguing game for its Monday Night Football when the top two teams in the league meet. It's league leaders Alanyaspor versus second placed Fenerbahce in a 6pm BST kick-off at the Bahcesehir Okullari Stadium in Alanya. The winning side will be sending a huge statement to the rest of the league with victory here in a game where both sides have everything to gain.
    Alanyaspor are the surprise pace setters in the Super Lig this season. Manager Erol Bulut has seen his team win all three of their league games so far against Kasimpasa, Kayserispor, and Yeni Malatyaspor. The results have been far from convincing and the opposition hasn't exactly been the big guns of the league but a 100% record after three matches isn't a run of form to be sniffed at. Fans of European football will recognise the names of Steven Caulker, Juanfran, and Papiss Cisse in the Alanyaspor ranks so they're a side that has the talent in the squad.
    Fenerbahce have bounced back after last season's atrocious effort. Ersun Yanal fixed the awful work put in place by Phillip Cocu and Erwin Koeman last season. He's continued his positive work here beginning the season with 2 wins and 1 draw. Goals are coming from all areas of the pitch so far and the signs are very positive. Fenerbahce have won their last three league games away from home on the bounce so they have every right to feel confident coming into this match.
    I don't mean to play down Alanyaspor's achievements so far but I'm not expecting them to remain in the title hunt this season. They've had favourable fixtures and despite deservedly winning all three games this is their first real test. They are up against a Fenerbahce side that do look like the potential real deal and I think a solid away win is the bet to follow here.
    Fenerbahce to Win @ 2.65 with Bet365
    BTTS @ 1.62 with William Hill
    @black_baar, what do you think for this game?
  24. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Sep 13th - 16th   
    I expect a easy match for Galatasaray today. Late transfers Lemina and Falcao will play in the starting eleven. Babel is on fire. Kasimpasa has a soft defensive line. To increase the odds, Galatasaray team over 2.5 goals can be tried.
  25. Like
    black_baar got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in Super Lig Predictions > Aug 30th - Sep 1st   
    Nice preview Stevie. Odds are not the best, however I would reccommend overs and both to score in this match. Matches in Fenerbahce stadium will be very entertaining this year I guess.
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