thfc
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Posts posted by thfc
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My main bet this weekend is Norwich +1 vs Chelsea at evens. Chelsea at odds on in their current state instinctively feels wrong to me and I think they are being priced up on reputation rather than the ability of their team.
Norwich look like they will score goals this season, although Pukki's form will drop off at some point. I like the fact Norwich are giving a chance to most of the team from last season. Team spirit must be good, and they will be confident after the Newcastle win.
Chelsea to me look short of a top striker. Giroud has never been prolific, Abraham is unproven at this level and Batshuayi blows hot or cold (mostly cold). I watched the game vs Leicester last week and they gave up so many good chances to Leicester they were lucky to draw in the end.
Norwich can score at least once against them, and given I don't think Chelsea are likely to score more than 1 themselves, that makes Norwich capable of getting at least a draw in my book.
- i1_principe, StevieDay1983 and Ameer
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I'm leaving the spurs game alone this time around though I expect City to win by a couple of goal margin. The rest of the Saturday games don't hold much appeal either.
I'm taking Wolves to beat Utd on Monday. Wolves were excellent last season against the top 6, and are already match sharp with all their Europa league matches. They also were perhaps unlucky not to win away at Leicester last weekend, and have kept most of their squad from last season, so look to be at least as good a team as the one from last season.
Utd had their 4-0 win last weekend, but the general view is the scoreline massively flattered them. I'm not convinced they are going to do any better in the league than last season. Either way, this is a tough game, and one they lost twice last year (in the league and FA cup), and I don't think Utd should be so far ahead in the betting. Wolves at 3.25 (BetVictor) for me has some value, as I think Utd have been priced up on their name and an overreaction to their first game.
- Ameer and StevieDay1983
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Way too early to be looking at these fixtures but i'm away when the PL starts back up so what the heck?.
First thoughts are to do lay both Liverpool and Man City. Liverpool's pre-season has not been the best to date, and their best attacking players have been busy with international commitments. I still expect Liverpool to win, but Norwich will have a fairly settled team unless they go on a crazy spending spree in the next couple of weeks, and will be more refreshed so aren't without a chance of getting a result. It's as good a time as any for Norwich to go to Anfield and be able to get a result.
Similar reasoning for city, but coupled with a tough away fixture to start the season I think they could be worth a lay. West Ham are capable of a top 10 finish and on their day are able to compete with the top teams. I think there is a fair chance at least one of Liverpool or City will drop points which would guarantee a profit.
I expect spurs to comfortably beat Aston Villa. Villa concern me with the number of signings they have made- looks like they don't trust the team that got them promoted bar a couple of players like Grealish. They could be 'doing a Fulham' and signing quantity and not quality IMO. Either way, spurs will be too strong for a Villa team with a lot of players being bought in who have no experience of the PL.
I can see quite a few draws in this round. Burnley-Saints, Palace-Everton, Leicester-Wolves and Utd-Chelsea all look like good candidates for draws as I think the teams are similarly matched.
- StevieDay1983, Ameer and sajtion
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Newcastle have accepted a bid from Leicester for Perez. No big deal I originally thought but apparently he's been the team's top scorer the past two seasons so clearly will be a big loss. Just makes the Newcastle to be relegated bet look even better.
Taking the 4.5 on offer now as the price can only shorten from here, especially if some of the teams expected to be near the bottom make some astute signings.
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10 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:
Yes, surely Palace relegation odds will shorten if Zaha leaves but frankly I don't think Arsenal will put up the money for him. They are just trying to unsettle the player at the moment with derisory bids.
I think Palace are holding out for Arsenal's inevitable £40,000,001 bid!
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1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:
I think Tottenham is probably fair. The only spanner in the works would be if Mauricio Pochettino leaves but I think they'll do all they can to keep him. I think only the Real Madrid job would tempt him away. Would he go to Barcelona after spending time at Espanyol? Only other job that would tempt him might be Bayern Munich. Can you honestly see Chelsea or Arsenal finishing above them? I don't think Eriksen or Alderweireld will go. Signing Ndombele will be a masterstroke too. He's exactly the sort of player they need.
Pochettino won't leave this season especially as spurs appear to be spending some money at last. I've not seen Ndombele play so can't really comment on his ability but at £65m he'd better be good!
I fancy spurs for the top 4, but they will be at least as far away from the title as last season, and on that basis I think their odds are too short. But the title race is tough to bet on, as it's highly likely to be between city and Liverpool.
Arguably Liverpool could be a touch of value given they only lost by a point and in any other season their points tally would have been more than enough to take the title. However, I can't help but feel they will slip back a bit this year, especially with Salah and Mane currently playing in the AFCON. They will be most likely jaded for the start of the season and may take some time to get going.
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Surprised to see spurs as third favourites in the PL title race, albeit a long way off the top two. No chance of us challenging for the title as I think we will have a weaker team than last year if Eriksen and maybe Alderweireld go.
At the bottom, I like the look of Newcastle and like @Mindfulnesssays, they should be shorter than that. No money, no manager and the club in turmoil suggests a very tough season for the toon.
Could Palace be worth a shout at 6.5 if Zaha goes? I think they've probably got enough about them if he does go, especially with Hodgson in charge, but the price would probably shorten if he did leave.
My main ante-post bet is to back Everton to finish in the top 4 at 21s. Main reasoning being they finished last season strongly and have a good team already. If they can strengthen with one or two more (particularly a decent striker), I think they've got enough about them to give the top 6 a good run for their money, especially as Chelsea are going to be weaker (no Hazard is massive), Arsenal are not improving and don't have much to spend to sort out their problems, and spurs may also be weaker. And who knows with Man U who always seem to be in some sort of transition?!
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Surely Chris Hughton wouldn't be tempted back there after his previous experience? Mourinho also no chance.
Of the names on that list, I wonder whether Dyche might be worth a punt? Probably done all he can at Burnley and Newcastle would be a bit of a step up.
That said Ashley will probably appoint someone who is unemployed so he doesn't have to pay to release the manager from his club. Whoever they get, it's hard not to think they will be able to do better than Benitez so they will do very well to avoid being involved in the relegation scrap.
So basically, I haven't got a clue!
- vicsuna, MABS and StevieDay1983
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As a spurs fan I'm just hoping we sign someone!
- StevieDay1983, waynecoyne and vicsuna
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OK so the big game is nearly here. As a spurs fan i'm very nervous- this is the biggest game in the clubs recent history and certainly in my 30 years of supporting them. It will probably be another 30+ years before they are back in the CL final so it really feels like now or never!
I don't see this being a game like the Europa league final where one team is going to win by a couple of goals or more. Both teams will be fully committed and I think the outright odds for the match are about right, although spurs are perhaps a touch bigger than I would have them.
I think this game will be quite tight. Both teams know each other well, and Liverpool are rightful favourites having done so well this season, but I don't think you can write off spurs at all just because they finished 20+ points behind Liverpool in the league. Both premier league games were tight, with Liverpool only winning the most recent encounter 2-1 because of a massive Lloris blunder.
Having come through against the odds against City and Ajax I don't think spurs will fear Liverpool. Equally Liverpool will feel confident of their chance having come through so well against Barcelona. In other words, both teams will feel they have a great chance to win the trophy.
Its tough for me to have a bet in this as i'm naturally biased so will be looking out for some more neutral views! However, I'm going to go with spurs +1 @ 1.95 (Ladbrokes). This gives me spurs or the draw on my side for around evens which seems fair enough if this does end up being a tight game as I expect.
- StevieDay1983 and vicsuna
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Potter confirmed as the new manager. Looks a good appointment to me, though it will be interesting to see how much investment is made into the team. Despite @Tiffy's post, I still can't see them spending big to get the players that are going to push them much further up the table.
- StevieDay1983 and Tiffy
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Wolves were good for me. Always performed well against the bigger sides, and always struggled against the lesser sides so managed to bet either with or against them at a decent price.
Think I called spurs fairly well this season. Overall a 6/10 for me.
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Sadly No! Great call though- will look out for your tips in the championship next season.
I got 5 of 8 on my BTTS and 5 of 8 on over 3.5 goals for a small profit on the final day. Just a shame its now 3 months of next to no football.
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I don't know who else they can get who will do a better job with their resources. I would argue he overachieved getting Brighton up to the PL in the first place. Next season will be tougher at the bottom as the teams coming up are going to be stronger than those going down this season. I can see Norwich surviving, and if Leeds or Villa come up I think they would be ok too. So agree with @ndanmak that Brighton look a good tip for relegation next season.
- yossa6133 and StevieDay1983
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Last fixtures of the season always tend to throw up 1 or 2 crazy scorelines. Spurs won 5-4 vs Leicester last season, and I seem to remember a Stoke 6-1 Liverpool score a couple of years back and also a West Brom Man U 5-5 draw not so long ago.
As there are a lot of teams with not much to play for, it's very tough to know who is 'on the beach' and which teams are more up for the fight. Most teams will be in relaxed mood, and while I know most clubs can go up and down a place or 2 in the table, I doubt the players are overly motivated by this. I think its quite likely we are going to get a few high scoring games with both teams scoring.
As its the last round of fixtures, for me its tough to have a serious bet, so i'm going to try BTTS in all 8 of the fixtures with not so much to play for (not the games affecting the title). And also smaller stakes on over 3.5 goals across the 8 fixtures as well just to keep me interested in all the matches and not just the title deciding games.
- ivailobg, yossa6133 and StevieDay1983
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I think Fulham might be worth a go on the +1 at 2.6 (bet365). Wolves all season raise their game for the big teams and struggle against the smaller teams. It's tough to know the mentality of either team as neither have much to play for but Fulham seem to be playing with some confidence at the moment, and I don't think Wolves should be as short as 1.55 to win this.
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Tottenham are the outsiders in the 'to qualify' market at 2.1 with skybet. Ajax have done very well to get where they are and are obviously a very good team but they are around 1.7 to qualify from this tie which seems too short to me and very much an overreaction to the two high profile previous wins vs (out of sorts) Real Madrid and Juventus. I think people are forgetting spurs were in a touch CL group, and then also had to beat two very tough teams in Dortmund and Man City to get this far.
Ajax beat both Real Madrid and Juventus in the last two knockout rounds, but importantly for me, they had the home leg first and knew what they had to do in the return leg away from home. This time, spurs are at home first, with the return leg in Amsterdam next week. This puts a different perspective on this tie, as Ajax won't necessarily go for it in the away leg as they don't need to. I see a similar pattern to the spurs Man City tie, with a tight first home leg, and then more of an open game in the return, when away goals might be crucial to determining who gets through.
I'm confident spurs will score in the away game as both Real Madrid and Juventus did in the previous ties and from looking back at the group games. If spurs can knockout Man City and Dortmund over two legs (scoring in both away games), then they are more than capable of beating Ajax over two legs.
I know Son is not available and Kane and a few others are injured for the first leg. But I still think spurs are as good as, if not better than this Ajax team (who I admittedly haven't watched much of). The odds for the to qualify market should be more or less even at around 1.9 each team, so for me there is some value in spurs to qualify at 2.1.
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Also, Arsenal should not be favourites to win at Leicester. They have a big game against Valencia coming up after this game, but even without that, based on their past two performances, they are clearly struggling, as they have done all season away from home. Aubameyang is likely out of this one so their goal threat is reduced.
Leicester's form has tailed off a bit in the past couple of games, but I think they will be up for this one at home. Vardy loves a game against a big 6 team and Arsenal's defence is not exactly performing well at the moment! 2.8 on the Leicester win is just about worth taking IMO.
- Ameer, MaliMisko12 and StevieDay1983
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Going to take Southampton to beat Bournemouth and confirm their safety. Saints in generally good form apart from the Newcastle game last week in which they were poor, but at the same time Bournemouth were losing at home to Fulham which takes some doing! Bournemouth's players are clearly playing as though they are done for the season and are just going through the motions.
People say this is a derby due to the close proximity of the teams but Southampton don't see it that way and I don't think Bournemouth do either so don't expect this to be any sort of factor in the match. At 1.95 with skybet, there's just about enough there to tempt me to back Southampton.
- StevieDay1983 and Ameer
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5 hours ago, Rimmed said:
Take the 46's by all means.. Enjoy
When I looked at the match before looking at the odds I was thinking Liverpool -2 as hoped that might be close to evens, but it's only 1.6 because they are so short in the outrights. Not going to get involved in this match although there is arguably some value on Huddersfield on the handicaps as @StevieDay1983 says.
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Liverpool as short as 1.05 and Huddersfield at 46s? Has there ever been such a massive disparity between two teams in a PL match? That's the kind of price I expect when England play a crappy international team, not two teams in the same league!
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Any obvious reason why Leicester are big favourites to win at West Ham? On paper, West Ham's form is poor, with 4 losses in 5, although 3 of those were away. I watched their game against Man U last weekend and they didn't deserve to lose the game and really should have won. Leicester also coming off a loss in their last game at home to Newcastle which halted their good form of late.
I really don't see why Leicester are such big favourites to win this one, and other than trying to finish 7th which might get you in Europe, there is nothing much to play for for either team. For me both teams are on a similar level of ability and no result would surprise me. West Ham have home advantage, and as they are nearly a point bigger than the Leicester price, I think they are definitely worth a punt at 3.4 (betfair).
Good luck @StevieDay1983 if you try and preview the Man City Spurs game. After the emotion of last night I have absolutely no idea what the mindset of either team will be!
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9 hours ago, thfc said:
Good call on the Barca bet! Never in doubt after 20 minutes.
Anyone with any thoughts on City Spurs tonight? I'd be interested in any less biased views on this match!
I'm backing spurs to qualify 2.37 (betfair). I picked spurs to win last week on the basis I just don't think City play the same in the CL as we see in the PL. I know the owners and Guardiola are desperate for success in the CL, but the rest of the club/fans just don't seem as bothered about the CL as teams like Liverpool, Man U, Barca etc. Their fans boo the anthem which can't set a good tone for the players.
I don't see spurs winning, but a draw is achievable. Not conceding an away goal is a huge advantage for spurs IMO, and city haven't been playing with the same swagger and confidence for quite a few games now, so if city do go on to win, I don't see them winning by a large margin- maybe a 2-1
Never in doubt!!
What a game. Fair play to Man City. I said they weren't up for the CL but that was way off the mark.
Premier League Predictions > Aug 23rd - 25th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Also tempted by Burnley +1 vs Wolves at around evens. This is the kind of game Wolves didn't do so well in last season, and coming off a EL game vs Torino on Thursday and the Man Utd game on Monday there will be one or two tired legs.
Burnley played quite well in defeat vs Arsenal, and they do have some capable players (Barnes/Wood etc). I think they will score at least once, and if they can do that, it might well be enough to get at least a draw as Wolves aren't often that prolific in front of goal.