thfc
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Posts posted by thfc
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Spurs are out to 1.8 which is obviously down to the loss of Kane and to a lesser extent Son. If the price continues to drift a little closer to evens, i'll be on spurs to win this. Basic reasoning being, spurs are in great form away from home and don't need Kane and/or Son to be on the pitch to beat Fulham, who managed to lose last week despite Burnley having 0 shots on target!
@StevieDay1983, i'm surprised you are so down on Cardiff in this one. Newcastle not good at home, and taken to extra time in midweek so that might even out the tiredness factor a bit? I agree with @Mindfulness that Cardiff have a good chance of getting something out of this one and quite like the double chance price of 1.91.
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Tempted by Brighton +1.5 against Liverpool at 1.99 (BetVictor). Basically because Brighton are good at home and can at least be competitive against Liverpool. Liverpool should win, but hopefully not by a big margin, so hopefully Brighton can cover the handicap.
Burnley at 2.4 look a big price to me. Fulham can't be trusted away from home, and even lost at home to Oldham in the cup which must have been demoralising, even with a changed team. Burnley looking a bit more like the team of last year and given Fulham can't keep goals out I think Burnley are a great bet based on their recent upturn in form.
I also think Southampton are capable of getting something against Leicester, who are hit and miss. They remind me a bit of Wolves, i.e. turn up and play against the big teams, and lose at home to Cardiff (and Newport in the cup). Saints are slowly improving, holding Chelsea to a 0-0 draw in their last PL away game, and I think they can get a draw out of this one (3.5 Betfred).
I don't know what to think about the spurs man utd game. Spurs looked knackered in the second half against Chelsea while Utd were sunning themselves in Dubai, though maybe they won't be match sharp, at least initially? Spurs haven't lost at home to Utd in the league since 2012 so have a strong recent record against them, even before Poch came in. Gun to head, i'd say a score draw for this one, but I have more fancied bets in the other games so leaving my own team alone this week.
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@StevieDay1983 since your post spurs have been pushed out bigtime to around 2.5 now. Has anyone seen anything team news wise to justify Spurs price moving out this far?
I have no idea why the price has moved so much as I haven't seen any negative team news from the club. I'd expect a strong side from both teams as i'm sure Sarri would love to win a trophy in his first season. I think i'm right in saying he has never won a trophy before, same as Poch so he must be motivated to go for it having got this far.
I thought spurs were a good bet at 2.10, but at 2.55 (bet365) i'm definitely backing them strongly. Chelsea were well beaten by spurs as recently as November, the 3-1 score flattered Chelsea. I think spurs will go all out to try and build up a decent lead in the home tie before the return fixture in a few weeks. Other than Hazard, most of Chelsea's attacking players are not in great form, and obviously spurs are scoring goals for fun at the moment, albeit against lesser opposition than Chelsea.
Son to score at 3.3 anytime (unibet) also looks good. He scored a wonder goal against Chelsea in November, and has been scoring goals almost every game since. He has this game and then Man Utd at the weekend before he is off to the Asian games so i'm sure he will play in both games, and hopefully keep up his good scoring run after a slow start to the season.
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And I also fancy Wolves to beat Liverpool on Monday. Wolves up their game against the bigger clubs, and are well placed in the league to have a real go at the FA cup. Liverpool are sure to rotate their squad, and this is clearly their lowest priority of the three competitions they are still in. I don't expect the recent 2-0 Liverpool win against wolves to have a bearing on this match, as I imagine at least 6-7 of Liverpool's first team players that played in that game will be rested.
Liverpool have a recent history of struggling in the FA Cup, including a loss to Wolves at home in the 2016/17 season. They also were held to draws by Exeter and Plymouth away from home in recent years, and last year managed to lose at home to West Brom.
Klopp doesn't appear to take the cup seriously, so I think Wolves are worth a go at 4.5 (Bet365).
- StevieDay1983 and Tiffy
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Following @Tiffys post on possible cupsets, what about Forest away at Chelsea? Chelsea have some injury problems at the moment and have the league cup semi-final against Spurs on Tuesday to consider. They weren't able to break down a poor Southampton team the other day. I'm sure Hazard will be rested and they will probably play their Europa league team with Giroud, Loftus Cheek etc. Still a decent team of course.
Forest beat Arsenal last year in the cup (albeit at home) and I fancy them to make a game of it against Chelsea. Forest are inconsistent but did beat top of the table Leeds in their last game and are going along nicely in the championship. At odds of 17, I think they are a bit overpriced given Chelsea's injuries etc. Forest +1 may also be a play. I just hope Forest don't weaken down themselves and have a go.
- Tiffy, StevieDay1983 and waynecoyne
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If anyone is looking to back spurs tonight, my advice would be to be wary. Spurs will rotate probably at least 8 first team players, with the Chelsea semi-final coming up on Tuesday.
Clearly the players coming into the team will be better quality than Tranmere's players, but last season, spurs heavily rotated their FA cup teams when playing away to Newport and Rochdale and drew both games (the Newport game with a late spurs equaliser). Tranmere are on a similar level to those teams and this is their cup final so they will be going all out to perform well.
I still think Spurs will win, but not as convincingly as the outright odds suggest. I don't expect Kane, Alli or Eriksen to be playing tonight, and I assume Llorente will come in as the main goal threat. However, he is hardly match sharp so I wouldn't be relying on him to score. I think Lucas Moura is also likely to start this one, and he would be my shout for a spurs goal (anytime at 2.25 with Bet365) as a better bet than spurs on the outrights.
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@StevieDay1983 as a spurs fan, i'm wary of the Cardiff game given your reasonable home form and good recent results. That said, spurs have been excellent away from home, and we do tend to pick up a result after a loss. However, I can't tip spurs on the outrights at the current prices. Spurs also have a tight turnaround with an FA cup game on Friday, although I can't imagine many first 11 players will play in that one, especially as the league cup semi vs Chelsea follows on the Tuesday.
I haven't found anything I fancy on this game, but i'll be interested in your take on the game and whether you fancy Cardiff to get something out of the game.
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I have to say Watford look a good price at 5.25 (Bet 365). Watford +1 is 2.15 and looks a great bet if you want some draw cover. After being unbeaten for a while at the beginning of the season, Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 6 PL games and should not be odds on to Watford, who are in good form.
Maybe Brighton as well against Arsenal? Similar prices to the Watford game, and while I fancy Watford to get a result more than Brighton, Arsenal having a bit of a dip in form, and they also have a tough game at Liverpool to follow.
I'd be very surprised if both Chelsea and Arsenal won these fixtures, so both Brighton & Watford +1 is worth a go in my view (both 2.15).
@StevieDay1983- any value in the Cardiff price, maybe again on the handicap? I was actually looking at this game to back Palace, but was thinking they should be much closer to evens and not such long odds on, which is perhaps an overreaction to their win at Man City. That result aside, Palace aren't doing much better than Cardiff this season although their form has picked up recently. Not sure i'm brave enough to back Cardiff away from home, but at 6.00 they are a bigger price than I thought they should be.
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Going to have to go against @Mindfulness this week and back spurs to beat Everton.
Earlier this week, spurs were just over evens, now they are out to 2.3 (William Hill). What has happened this week to justify the odds drifting to this extent? Perhaps the bookies think the team will be unsettled with all the Poch to utd talk?
I've taken a look at Everton's home form and for the teams they have faced at home, it is distinctively average. An early season loss to West Ham (when they were bottom of the table), and draws with Huddersfield and Newcastle are not the best results for a team of Everton's stature. They also only scraped a draw with Watford recently thanks to the last kick of the game.
Everton have yet to face a top 6 team at home this season, and haven't managed to get anything out of away games at Arsenal, Man City (fair enough), or even Man Utd. They did get a good draw at Chelsea and should have had a draw with Liverpool.
At 2.3, I think there is value in Spurs price and they should be around the evens mark as they were earlier in the week. Spurs are top of the 'away table' having won 8 out of 10 away PL games, including at teams of a similar calibre to Everton such as Wolves, Leicester and even Man Utd at the moment. Spurs also have a good record against Everton in recent times, and Poch has only lost once against them in 11 meetings since coming to England.
I think the team will be buoyed by the win in the league cup, and I don't think there is any excuse for tiredness as Poch has done a good job rotating the team recently. Kane only played 30 minutes on Wednesday so will be relatively fresh. He has also scored 2 goals in each of the last 3 meetings with Everton. Son is also scoring, and there is so much pace and creativity in the team that it's hard not to see them scoring at least once against a so-so defence in Everton. Everton aren't the most clinical team, so 1-2 goals may well be enough to win this one.
Spurs to win at 2.3 is my main pick (William Hill). I wouldn't put anyone off backing Kane to score anytime in a spurs win at 3.25 (also William Hill)
- Tiffy, allyhibs and StevieDay1983
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I'm also tempted by Wolves +1 at around 2.5. They tend to play better against the bigger teams (only losing to Spurs so far this season, drawn against both Manchester clubs and Arsenal, and beaten Chelsea). They have also won the last 3.
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I'm going to go with Burnley +2 (2.15 Coral). I'm not just saying this because i'm a spurs fan!
Burnley seem to have tightened up defensively of late. I expect them to play much the same as they did against spurs last weekend, I.e. no ambition at all, 10 men behind the ball etc. The tactic nearly paid off and this bet would have landed in last weeks game.
Arsenal have defensive problems, so its not inconceivable Burnley don't score. Burnley have also had the week off, while Arsenal put out a strong team in the league cup on Wednesday and this is quite a quick turnaround, being the Saturday lunchtime game.
I can see Burnley making life tough for them here, and while Arsenal can be good going forward, I don't see them winning by a massive margin. Arsenal struggled to beat Huddersfield at home recently, only getting a 1-0 win thanks to a late goal, and this seems a similar sort of fixture, where maybe the Arsenal players aren't fully up for playing a team like Burnley.
Therefore happy to take Burnley at these odds to get something from the game, or at least to only lose by a single goal.
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41 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:
If you mean like a law of averages type play then no not really, I have no info to indicate that Tottenham's drawn column is gonna start filling up anytime soon or that there will be an imminent reversion to the mean.
Yeah I wondered if you went for a draw in this one partly on a law of averages type play, i.e. a team hasn't drawn for a while so must be due a draw. You might well be right in some extra value in the draw price because the bookies are wary of spurs lack of drawing.
I like Everton but they remind me a bit of Wolves- good to watch but a bit toothless up front, they really need a decent striker to compliment their creative players. I'd certainly be disappointed if spurs lost the match- we have a good record up at Goodison, only losing I think 3 or 4 times since the start of the PL, although a lot of draws in past results too.
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10 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:
Everton V Tottenham Hotspur
X @ 3.50 Betvictor
Again, very little between the two in terms of ELO performance and key goal metrics. Tottenham are the more ruthless upfront but we've seen Everton run Chelsea and Liverpool close this season and I feel the toffeemen are slowly making progress under manager Marco Silva.
We must bear in mind that Tottenham have the added obstacle of a midweek league cup game to negotiate and that may just hamper their preparations for Everton slightly.
I feel X is the value play here when you consider the circumstances and inflated price.
FWIW I don't disagree with the pick, though Everton's home form this season is not so good- only drawing with Huddersfield, Newcastle etc and also just scraping a draw with Watford. They haven't played one of the bigger teams at home yet (Chelsea and Liverpool games were away from home) so it will be a tough test for them.
Just out of curiousity, do you put any weight on spurs not drawing any of their PL matches this season (I think it is 20 in a row without a draw including last season now)? I guess you could argue they are due a draw, equally you could say the trends are they either win or lose.
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A couple of points to bare in mind for the Arsenal Spurs game. Arsenal have a fairly quick turnaround with a lunchtime game on Saturday (home to Burnley), while Spurs don't play until the Sunday so have more time to recover. Arsenal also played last Sunday whereas spurs played on the Saturday so again have had more time to recover from the last game's efforts.
I watched the Southampton Arsenal game at the weekend, and Arsenal's makeshift defence was terrible. Bellerin is confirmed out of this one, and they have a lot of injuries to defenders. Not that their first choice pairing is all that good, but the point is that they don't keep many clean sheets whoever is playing for them. Team news will be important, but I strongly fancy spurs to score in this game.
Both teams to score seems pretty likely but is massive odds on. Over 3.5 goals as suggested above seems a good shout, although I wouldn't expect Kane to start, and maybe not Aubameyang either.
Based on my confidence in spurs being able to target the Arsenal defenders, I'm going to go with spurs to score over 1.5 goals in the game at 2.15 with Coral for this one.
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As long as it's not Poch then I don't care who gets it. As Tiffy says, spurs are at the present time a bigger club so I can't see him moving now.
Presumably the club have been talking to someone behind the scenes before sacking him. Blanc is now the favourite although I don't see him changing their fortunes anytime soon. Not that I have any problem with that
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As for my spurs team, I can't find anything I really want to back in that game. I have a nagging feeling we are due a draw (19 PL games and counting without a draw) against a team like Burnley sooner or later. This fixture ended in a draw last season. That said, spurs are looking good at the moment now that key injuries to Eriksen and Alli are clearing up so they should win, but i'm not touching them at 1.2. You could argue Burnley at 20/1 (BetVictor) offer a bit of value as you don't get outright prices like that in the league very often.
For a bit of interest I will put up Son Heung Min to score anytime at around evens, as he is back in scoring form against a Burnley defence that has been uncharacteristically poor this season.
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Looks a tough coupon to me. I think Brighton could be worth backing at home to Chelsea, probably with some draw cover for insurance. Chelsea at 1.5 is way too short against a good home side. I think the bookies are overreacting to their win against Man City last week. If they had drawn/lost that game, I think they would be 1.7-1.8 to win this one.
Brighton +1 at around 2.1 would be my pick in this game.
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20 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Screw it, I'm backing Tottenham Draw No Bet! Let's do this Tottenham!!!
Love the optimism for Spurs StevieDay1983!
As a fan, I can't see us doing it. Yes Barcelona will have a weaker squad but they are at home and have a formidable record in the CL. I haven't checked but they must have had dead games at home in the CL in the past, and haven't got beat in those games.
Spurs are way too short. Barcelona at over evens at home doesn't happen very often, so the value is with them in the outrights in my opinion. Whoever comes in must be one of the 25 CL registered players, so they can't go and put out a youth team or something. I'm not betting against my own team but 2.1 for Barcelona would be my pick.
I do think PSV have the quality to get something at Inter, although how motivated they are I don't know. Inter, from what I understand are a bit like an Italian version of Spurs in that they have a relationship for messing things up, so i'm hoping for a PSV favour tonight!
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West Ham at home with odds of 2.3 to beat Palace seems a bit too big to me. If we ignore the Man City game, West Ham are in decent enough form, and have beaten Cardiff and Burnley at home recently, who are probably a similar level to Palace. I'd have them closer to evens for this so think there is a bit of value in their price.
As for Spurs this week, I couldn't recommend backing them at evens. Leicester away is a tough game, and with Barcelona on Tuesday in a must win match, I think there will be one or two changes for this game. Over 2.5 goals at around 1.85 would be my pick in this game.
- StevieDay1983 and Tiffy
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2 hours ago, Mindfulness said:
I think the latest reports said February but I would take any opening date with a pinch of salt.
@thfc may know more.
The stadium needs to have two test events before it can be used for PL games. Last I knew neither of these have been arranged yet. February may be optimistic to be open, but nobody really knows and the club are being very quiet about it. Further news is supposed to come out of the club at some point in December. It wouldn't surprise me if we carried on at Wembley all season as there doesn't seem much point rushing to get it open with half a season gone.
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Looking at the north London derby, I think the outright odds are about right. If you're pro Arsenal, spurs have only won once at Arsenal in the last 25 years and Arsenal are unbeaten in all comps for about 18 games I think (although a lot of draws). If you are pro spurs, they have only lost 1 of the last 8 against Arsenal (last year at the emirates 2-0), Harry Kane loves a goal against Arsenal, and spurs have won 7 of 8 away this PL season. This will be the toughest away fixture to date though.
This game has a reputation for lots of goals which used to be the case. However, the last 5 meetings between the two at the emirates have been under 2.5, and 3 of the last five at WHL/Wembley have also been under 2.5. Under 2.5 goals is as big as 2.5. I think that price is too big based on recent history between the two so is worth a go.
The draw looks the most likely result to me and there have been a lot of draws in this fixture in recent times, in fact 3 of the last 4 at Arsenal have finished 1-1. I can see that result happening again.
Therefore under 2.5 goals is my main play in this game, and a small side bet of 1-1 correct score.
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I agree with Cardiff being the value bet in this one. Wolves are always overrated by the bookies. They seem to raise their game against the bigger teams, taking points off both Manchester clubs, Arsenal away and nearly getting a draw against spurs recently. However, when they play the lesser clubs, they don't seem up for it. I watched some of the their game against Huddersfield last weekend and they were poor. If you can lose at home to Huddersfield, you can lose to anyone!
Neither team has much of a goal threat which dampens my enthusiasm for Cardiff outright. But happy to back Cardiff or the draw at 1.7 with William Hill as I don't see Wolves winning.
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On 22/11/2018 at 2:50 PM, thfc said:
Watford +1 at 2.7 and West Ham +2 at 2.2 (both betfair) are my bets. Also very small stakes on the double at 5.94
I think I need to stick to bets in spurs games! At least my Alli to score tip came in
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I'm going to take a major punt this weekend and say that Liverpool and Man City are worth taking on. Main reasoning as in my post above (and @Mindfulness post on Watford) and that basically this is as good a time as any (after the international break) to take on Man City. West Ham can blow hot and cold, but have the players to make the game competitive, while Watford have been playing well all season, and Liverpool have been stuttering a bit and have a big CL game on Wednesday to think about.
Watford +1 at 2.7 and West Ham +2 at 2.2 (both betfair) are my bets. Also very small stakes on the double at 5.94
Premier League Predictions > Jan 19th & 20th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Crystal Palace as big as 18 to win at Liverpool. They beat Man City not so long ago away from home at similar odds...
Palace have been a bit of a bogey side for Liverpool, with the infamous 3-3 draw a few years ago, and Palace have actually won at Anfield 3 out of the last 5 PL fixtures. I doubt there is another PL team with that good a recent record in going to Liverpool and getting a result.
Saying that, I don't expect Palace to win, but I think the price is too big. For perspective, Brighton (similar ability to Palace IMO) are only 13s to win at Man Utd with their well known terrible away form. I don't think i'm brave enough to take a punt on Palace outright, but maybe on a +2 handicap, as I can seem them keeping it competitive.