thfc
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Posts posted by thfc
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Early doors I like the look of this set of fixtures.
I would say Southampton should not be favourites away at any PL team. Odds may have changed now Ranieri has been made Fulham manager.
I was also thinking this could be a good opportunity to lay Man City after the international break when lots of their players will have played here there and everywhere. West Ham away won't be the easiest game in the world, so perhaps the home team on the handicap might be a way to play this one. I know City have a great record at west ham, but its more the circumstances of the game being right after the international break that make me think they may have lost some of their momentum and could be worth opposing.
Watford at home to Liverpool could also be a bit of an upset. Watford playing well, Liverpool having a bit of a dip and with a big CL game away to PSG to follow. Again, Watford on the handicap holds plenty of appeal for me.
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On 09/11/2018 at 2:08 PM, thfc said:
I'd therefore strongly recommend under 2.5 goals at around 2.1, and maybe just for fun 1-0 spurs at around 9.0 to continue the trend.
Happy with that!
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4 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:
Backed you guys on -0 AH line @ 1.76 at Wolves last week. You are nowhere near that price versus Palace even though opposition is the same level. A tired Tottenham with high turnover of games would have to drift a lot more for me to consider backing them at Palace.
Just strikes me as an obvious no bet scenario at current prices.
I'm not sure I would agree Wolves are on the same level as Palace right now. Wolves generally on the up, although I have maintained all season that Wolves are being overestimated by the bookies. Palace seem to be stagnating or possibly declining, so I can certainly understand why spurs are much shorter in the outrights this week.
All that being said, I think we agree it's a no bet on the outrights.
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1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:
This is a good spot, I actually think Palace V Spurs is a very difficult game to predict this weekend, mainly because I have no idea what sort of team Spurs will put out. If Wanyama and Dier return it will surely be a boost for the unders + Pochettino says he is considering resting Eriksen and Alli due to a rapid turnover of games.
I will follow you on Under 2.5 @ 2.18 Matchbook
I think you're right, price is just too generous.
People should probably avoid 1X2 and AH markets for this game, it's very dicey in my view.
I saw that article but I'd be very surprised if Poch didn't play anyone who is fit, with the international break coming up. Alli in particular presumably won't be involved for the England/USA game, so only one game over the next two weeks means he can play here if fit. Wanyama hasn't played for a while and seems to be out of favour so won't be a miss.
I would guess the midfield will be Winks, Sissoko/Dier, Lamela, Eriksen/Alli. I think the midfield will play quite narrow to stifle Palace and Zaha in particular, and allow Trippier and Davies to go forward to assist the forward players.
Spurs are top of the 'away form table' while Palace are bottom of the 'home form table', so you could argue the Tottenham price is fair as it is. I'm actually quite confident about the spurs win, just think the price should be a touch bigger, and prefer the price of under 2.5.
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I'm surprised under 2.5 goals is the outsider of the under/over market in the Palace Spurs match. Matches between these two over the past couple of years have been tight, in fact it has been a 1-0 to spurs scoreline in each of the last four league games. Palace also won 1-0 in an FA cup game so the 1-0 streak in all competitions is currently at 5.
I see no reason not to think this will be another tight and low goal encounter. Palace don't score many- I think its only 2 home goals all season, both penalties in the last match. Spurs aren't as free scoring as they have been in recent seasons.
The outright price on Tottenham does not appeal, though if it drifts to evens i'd be happy to take that price. This will be spurs 8th away PL game already this season, and they've won 6 and only lost 1, so going to Selhurst Park shouldn't faze them.
I'd therefore strongly recommend under 2.5 goals at around 2.1, and maybe just for fun 1-0 spurs at around 9.0 to continue the trend.
- Mindfulness and slipkid
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Not convinced Spurs are going to win as easily as the odds imply. Lloris is suspended which after his CL performances could be seen as a good thing, though he is still a class above Vorm or Gazzaniga. I hope Gazzaniga starts as he has been fairly impressive in his starts in the PL and cup competitions. Dembele, Dier and Wanyama all injured for this so problems in midfield, though Alli coming back for this one will help.
I don't know what state the pitch will be in, but I assume the playing surface will be ok now. Either way, the Wembley atmosphere is not great due to the new stadium issues, and I think the club are a bit fed up with playing at home/Wembley at the moment which is affecting the mood of the fans, and maybe the players at home games.
PSV are doing very well in their league, and spurs are not winning games by a clear margin at the moment. Spurs clearly the better team, but not backable at 1.40 in my opinion.
Therefore, i'd recommend Tottenham to win by a 1 goal margin at 4.0 (skybet) for a better value bet. PSV on the handicap might also be a way to play.
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I'm feeling quietly confident about Spurs going to Wolves and winning, and think odds around 2.25 are fair. Wolves have hit a bit of a wobble and in my opinion have been overrated by the bookies all season. They don't score many, so one goal could well be enough to get the win. Alli and Eriksen getting back to full fitness means spurs will be close to full strength for perhaps the first time this season.
Incidentally, this will be spurs 7th PL away game of the season. They've won 5 and lost 1 (Watford). They are playing better away than at home at the moment and after the cup win against west ham, I think they will be full of confidence going into this one.
Without being too morbid, could this be a good time for Cardiff to be playing Leicester? Some of the Leicester players must have struggled with training this week with all the distractions, plus there is supposedly some discontent with Vardy. Cardiff have started scoring recently so it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they managed to win this one.
- StevieDay1983 and Zacharael
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I actually fancy under 2.5 goals in the PSV spurs match. Spurs not scoring heavily but defending quite well at the moment. Yes PSV score plenty in their domestic league, but from what I know of dutch football, it is not the best quality outside of Ajax and PSV. Hopefully spurs defence can handle what PSV will throw at them.
It took Inter Milan 85 minutes to break spurs down in the last CL away game and that was something of a wonder goal so I think spurs have every chance of keeping PSV out. But I don't see them being prolific at the other end so wouldn't rule out a low scoring draw.
Therefore under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes for me
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Just to add to StevieDays preview, Spurs have won every single home game against a newly promoted club for something like the last 8 or 9 seasons, so a spurs win should be banker material. Moura and Lamela have been lively (and scored a few) all season, so put either to score in a spurs win to boost the price from the outrights would be my advice.
- StevieDay1983 and sjuesju
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Liverpool are marginal favourites to win at Chelsea? That instinctively seems wrong to me- it's not like Chelsea have done much wrong so far this season, and may have a psychological edge (hazard in particular) after the cup game.
Odds of 40/1 (Ladbrokes) on Brighton to win at Man City seems a bit disrespectful! I know Brighton are poor away from home, but Man City have a big CL game in midweek which may be a distraction. City will still win but I see this being a competitive game that is closer than these odds suggest. Maybe Brighton +2 or +3 could be a way to play?
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Goes without saying Tottenham should win at Huddersfield. Rather than take the outright win, I will suggest Tottenham to win and both teams to score has a pretty good chance of landing. OK, Huddersfield don't score many but Tottenham's defence is poor at the moment, especially from headed goals and set pieces. Other than away at Man U (who should have scored) all spurs opponents have scored at least once so why not Huddersfield?
23/10 (Boylesports) for spurs and both teams to score gets some of my money this weekend.
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Spurs at odds on away to Brighton makes no appeal whatsoever! Even if spurs were in good form its a tough place to go. Lloris still out is a big loss for spurs.
I watched Brighton against saints and they weren't good- particularly first half. Their tactics were hoof the ball long and see what happens. It got them back in the game so you can't knock it but it wasn't easy on the eye.
Spurs have been poor from set pieces all season so far, which may play to Brighton's strengths. Given spurs lack of form I think both teams would be happy with a draw out of this one. I'm going to go for 1-1, which was the result last season.
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18 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:
I have Spurs +0.25 shortlisted for this week but just heard Alli and Lloris are out + Kane maybe tired (although you know how the media bandwagon gets going)
In normal circumstances I don't think Liverpool should be clear favourites, prices should be level. However, issues are starting to mount up for Spurs, am I reading too much into said issues? Be interested to get your view
Yeah just seen this myself. Lloris was missing for the Watford game and while Vorm wasn't at fault for the goals, my impression was the defence was unsettled throughout the match, some of which i'm attributing to Vorm being in goal. On paper Vorm is a pretty good backup keeper, but I would definitely be more wary of backing Spurs with him in goal.
Alli in his current form I don't think is such a big miss. Spurs are strong with creative midfielders to feed Kane or score themselves (Moura/Eriksen/Son etc). Son would be the natural replacement for Alli but I don't know how fit he is having been in Asia on international duty for the past month.
I was just reading how a lot of Liverpool's players have travelled a long way over the internationals (twice as far as spurs players have) so there has to be some fatigue there which may help counteract spurs injury problems.
I still think spurs are capable of at least a draw. However, I think this is a match where any result wouldn't surprise me so it's not a confident shout. If I was going to put up anything for this game, it would be under 2.5 goals as I see this being quite a dull, cagey game despite Kane, Salah etc being on the pitch.
- Sir Puntalot and Mindfulness
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Think this is a tough set of fixtures and i'm struggling to find any value in the outrights. I was considering Burnley +1 at around 6/5 as I think Wolves are a team who are being overrated by the bookies because they've spent a few ££. Yes its only Burnley but I think they might sort themselves out now they aren't playing in Europe and at least be hard to beat as they were last season so could get at least a draw out of this match.
I don't think Liverpool should be favourites away vs my team, spurs. Liverpool haven't beaten Spurs at WHL/Wembley since Klopp came in, getting beat 4-1 last year with draws the two years before. If pushed I would say a low scoring draw as they are two fairly equal teams, who both have lots of players coming back from the international break. Kane in particular looks to be struggling, and the likes of Mane and Firmino for Liverpool have travelled a long way over the last couple of weeks so there is going to be fatigue in both squads.
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Not sure Crystal Palace should be that big at home to Liverpool. They are well organised and tough to beat and I don't see Liverpool winning as easily as the odds suggest. Palace +1 is on my shortlist.
Also like the look of Everton (Southampton always seem overrated by the bookies to me), Leicester (not convinced Wolves are all that good) and maybe Brighton +1 given they should play better at home and United are hard to support at short odds given the supposed discontent with the manager etc.
- Tiffy and StevieDay1983
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Re: Europa League > Thu 11th April ^^ Actually Tottenham's game against Chelsea that was supposed to be played on Sunday has been postponed because Chelsea are playing Man City in the FA Cup semi final on Sunday. I'm sure AVB will field the strongest possible team to try and get through the tie especially as they aren't playing at the weekend, but they will be without Bale and Lennon who are key misses. Basel don't need to win, a 0-0 or 1-1 will do them fine, but I would still agree the odds on Basel are quite generous.
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Re: Tottenham Hotspur v Everton > Sun 7th April ^^All the talk is about Bale, but don't forget Everton are also missing two of their key players in Fellaini and Pienaar. I would suggest this ought to be a low scoring game as spurs struggle to score many at home, and everton aren't very prolific either, and having fellaini and pienaar out isn't going to help them. Both sides strikers are also out of form. I don't bet on my own team, but under 1.5 goals at 3.5 (betvictor) could be a good shout, as I can see this being a scrappy 1-0 either way, or a 0-0 draw.
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Re: Reading v Southampton > Sat 6th April ^^Don't forget that this is Nigel Adkins first game at home with Reading. He was only sacked from Southampton back in January and is still trying to sort out compensation for his sacking. No doubt there are some raw feelings there and he will have extra motivation to win this one, plus he will know all the saints players very well, (probably even better than his new Reading players!), so should be able to set up a side to exploit their weaknesses. Personally I think the draw is the way to go on this one. Reading can't win at the moment, but i'm wary of the new manager's influence, especially with the added motivation of beating his recent employers. Saints all of a sudden are looking fairly comfortable in the table up in 12th, though only 4 points off the relegation zone, so a draw wouldn't do them any harm at all. They are not the best away from home and rely mainly on their home form for their wins.
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Re: Capital One Cup > October 30/31 Leeds could be a good bet here, and I would have them as favourites. Southampton are playing at 3pm on Sunday against spurs and you would imagine they are going to send a weakened team up to Leeds with hardly any regular first team players to concentrate on the league. Leeds put in a good shift to beat Everton in the last round so seem to be taking the competition seriously, whereas Southampton put out a weakened team against Stevenage, and while they won easily enough, away to Leeds will be much tougher. Southampton did win at Elland Road in the championship last season, but Leeds should have at least got a draw out of the game and probably won it, but the keeper had one of those days where he saved everything. Leeds are currently 2.7 with Bet Victor which is good enough for me, as I would have put them somewhere around 2.4-2.5. Swindon could also be tempting against out of form Villa as they have a recent history of beating higher division teams and you know Di Canio will have the team and supporters right up for the game. Will wait and see how Villa fair in a 'must win' game against Norwich at the weekend before making a decision on this game though.
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Re: Weekend > Championship > 13-14 April West Ham are currently 1.74 to win on Betfair, and i'll happily lay that price all day long with their current home form. Brighton have been impressive in the championship this year and were perhaps a bit unlucky to lose to Reading yesterday. West Ham haven't won at home in their last 7 matches I think it is and in that time they have played some average to poor sides such as Doncaster, Watford, Crystal Palace etc Both sides still have everything to play for, and I think the prices are just because of West Ham's name and the perception they should be beating every team in the championship at home. The reality is their home form is very poor for a team looking to go up automatically, so i'll be laying west ham with medium stakes.
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Re: Sunderland v Tottenham > 7 April Got to say I think Spurs are good value at 2.3. The main reason being that Aaron Lennon should be back fit for this one, and he will make a real difference to spurs attack. Spurs have won the last couple of games playing well, the attack minded players are in form (Van Der Vaart and Adebayor especially), and in the games before that when results weren't going their way, it was only really the Arsenal game that they deserved to lose, so the performances of late have been pretty good even when results weren't so good. Sunderland are a bit hit and miss. Nearly win at Man City last week, but lose in the biggest game of their season in the FA Cup quarter final to Everton. Obviously their is nothing left for them to play for this season, but of course they are at home so are going to give it a real go against Spurs. I would have spurs a bit closer to evens than they are. Spurs have a massive incentive to win this one and go above arsenal into 3rd before Arsenal play Man City and maybe drop some points. Spurs have won 6 times on the road this season which is a reasonable record, and if they are going to finish 3rd in the table, they really have to go and win this one. It's a bit risky as Sunderland aren't bad at home but Spurs have the better players and should be really motivated to get the win. 2/10 Spurs to win @ 2.3 (widespread)
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Re: Chelsea v Tottenham > 24 March
If Chelsea win they will actually be 2 points behind. Not necessarily disagreeing with your bet but don't forget Chelsea are away at Benfica on Tuesday in what is another huge game. Everyone (including Di Matteo) knows that Abromovich really wants the Champions League so that game will be massive for them. Not that i'd expect Chelsea to rest any key players or anything but they will surely have half an eye on that fixture. Spurs never win at the bridge but despite the slump in results, spurs performances haven't been too bad over the last few games, and they really should have picked up at least a point against Everton and maybe Man Utd, and probably should have beaten Stoke. I don't think Adebayor is too big a loss, as Saha has done quite well since joining, and Defoe is always lively. Personally I fancy a draw in this fixture as I think both sides are fairly equally matched at the moment. The slight upturn in Chelsea's form since Di Matteo took charge doesn't hide the fact that for much of the season they have been fairly poor both home and away, hence why they are 5 points behind the Champions League spots. 2/10 Draw 3.6 (skybet)Chelsea vs Tottenham This is definately a key match to decide who will give themselves the best chance to get the last Champions league spot. Ealier this season when Spurs were fighting for the Premier League title, it seemed very likely that it will be Chelsea and Arsenal who will be fighting out for the 4th spot. However, performances under Redknapp has greatly dropped after all the England manager fiasco, and a win here for Chelsea will take them just 1 point behind Spurs, probably ending as favourites to get the last spot the way that Tottenham have been playing recently -
Re: Swansea v Everton > 24 March Totally agree that Swansea are a fantastic bet this weekend. Although Swansea arguably have nothing to play for in terms of being safe in mid table, that didn't stop them battering Fulham 3-0 away last time out, which is somewhere that even the top PL teams struggle to win at. Everton are going to have a major eye on the cup replay and won't be that motivated to win this one and may rest a couple of players as they did in the Merseyside derby the game before the first cup game with Sunderland. Even without the cup distraction, I think Swansea with their home record (already beaten Man City and Arsenal at home) should not be as big as 2.25 to beat Everton. 10/10 Swansea 2.25 (Paddy Power) I'm also tempted by Swansea to keep a clean sheet which is currently 3.25 with William Hill. I'm not sure of the exact stats but I know Swansea have kept a number of clean sheets this season and with Everton not being prolific in front of goal, i'll have a little bet on this as well. This bet also covers the 0-0 result as a bit of insurance as if Swansea aren't able to win the match, 0-0 sounds like quite a likely scoreline to me. 2/10 Swansea to keep a clean sheet 3.25 (William Hill)
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Re: England > Boxing Day > Barclays Premier League > 26-27 December As a spurs fan I hate to say that I like the price on Norwich. Norwich have had 2 extra days to prepare for this match and Spurs have just come off the back of a tough game against Chelsea. Spurs will be missing Van Der Vaart and Lennon for sure which means Modric might end up playing on the right side of midfield again which means we lose his effectiveness in the middle of the pitch. Norwich have been fairly impressive this season and seem likely to avoid relegation. They score plenty but also concede quite a few as well. They don't have any star names but seem to be a well organised outfit who have given a tough game to the other top PL teams both home and away so far this season. I'm not completely confident that Norwich can win this, but 4/1 to win is bigger than I thought the price would be, so I definitely think there is some value in their price. Norwich or the draw at 2.05 (william hill) is also a bet that I think has some value. I'm not taking them myself as i'm not going to back against my team but just thought i'd highlight the prices for other punters to take advantage of.
Premier League Predictions > Nov 24th - 26th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Chelsea are as big as 2.7 with Marathon. Spurs a similar price so the bookies don't really know what to expect from this one.
I agree with the bookies this is a difficult game to call and even as a spurs fan I can't really form an opinion on this one. Spurs have lost at home to Man City and Liverpool, and on that basis I don't think I agree with you that we have showed up against the big teams, as spurs were well beaten in both games even if the score line didn't reflect that.
Gun to head, I would say a draw as I think both teams are fairly evenly matched. There's only 1 point between them after 12 games which backs the theory the teams are fairly equal in ability. Spurs are 'due a draw', being the only PL team not to draw yet this season.
Dele Alli has a great scoring record against Chelsea. He should be back and fit after hardly featuring during the international matches, so maybe for fun Alli anytime scorer could be worth a go at around 4.8 with William Hill.