thfc
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Posts posted by thfc
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Feels like a tough week to be confident on any outright selections.
I'm going to give Sheffield United and Bournemouth a go, both at +1 handicap. Sheffield Utd are 2.88 with skybet, Bournemouth are 3.2 with BetVictor.
Sheffield Utd have given both Spurs and Man City a tough game, and Newcastle are not exactly on good form at the moment, so I think Sheffield can get at least a draw at home, if not the win.
Bournemouth is a bit more speculative, but I think they are doing better than is being perceived. They've had a really tough fixture list to start the season, but picked up 3 draws against teams they lost to last year. And they probably should have beaten Brentford away. Brighton have played in Europe and were without Dunk, which seemed to make a big difference to their performance. They don't have the biggest squad and aren't used to playing in Europe so fatigue might be a bit of an issue for them. I believe Dunk (and Ferguson) are major doubts for Brighton, while Bournemouth should be fresh after not playing since last weekend. Brighton do throw in the odd really bad performance (i'm thinking back to the 5-1 home loss to Everton last season!), and I think Bournemouth are capable of going to Brighton and getting at least a draw.
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I like the look of Brentford +1 on the handicap as @Charon84 has put up.
I also like the look of Bournemouth +1 @2.1. Chelsea just can't be trusted at short odds at the moment- sure they beat Luton at home, but lost at home to Forest last time out (who I think i'm right in saying had the worst away record last season). Bournemouth were a bit unlucky not to win at Brentford last time out, and this could be a good time to play Chelsea right after the international break.
Until Luton can show they are capable of playing at this level, i'll be backing their opposition, especially when they are away from home. Fulham at around 1.67 feels fairly generous.
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Fair enough! I do feel Leeds are my main punt in being out of line with expectations, though some would say Palace and Everton should be higher. One thing is for sure, there is going to be at least 1 team who do much better/worse than the likes of SPIN's predictions.
I thought it would be a 5 minute job to to the 1-20 prediction, but actually found it really hard from 6-20 as realistically I think a lot of teams are on a similar level and could be argued to be better or worse than my own rankings.
All can change with the transfer window still having plenty of time. I'll be happy with 2 or 3 of these end up being right at the end of the season!
- StevieDay1983 and harry_rag
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Go on then, i've got some time so i'll have a go at the 1-20 prediction:
1. Man City- I think they win quite comfortably with Haaland making a great team even better.
2. Liverpool- Next best but I think they drop back a bit in terms of total points. Mane is a big loss and Nunez might need some time to hit the ground running.
3. Spurs- best of the rest. Very pleased with the signings made so far, and with a full season under Conte I will be hoping to push Liverpool close for second
4. Arsenal- I think they have recruited well so far and have a stronger squad than last year when they finished 5th, so up one to 4th for me
5. Chelsea- Not impressed with their business thus far. The loss of Rudiger in particular will be tough to replace, and I don't think Sterling coming in is going to be the answer to their striker problems. Maybe Chelsea's time towards the top end of the PL is coming to an end?
6. Newcastle- Still time to spend more money on improving the squad but you have to appreciate what Howe has done since he came in with the squad he already has. Pope is a solid addition and Botman is highly rated so I think they are going to be defensively solid, but a bit light up front as things stand
7. Man Utd- Still looks like a squad that is not entirely harmonious- Ronaldo wants out but will probably have to stay put, they haven't signed anyone of note yet, and it's tough to know if Ten Hag is all that good when anyone can win the league with Ajax! 7th feels a generous placing!
8. Leicester City- no business done as yet, but they always seem to invest wisely so I expect them to be a strong team once again, and their current team (assuming Vardy is fit and Tielemans stays) is strong
9. West Ham- I have no idea who their big signing (Aguerd) is, but Moyes is a shrewd manager so a top half finish looks likely for West Ham, but not challenging for Europe as they have been in recent years
10. Leeds- Going to take a punt and say Leeds are going to improve quite a bit on last season. They lost Phillips but he was injured most of last season anyway. They look like they have recruited quite well with a few RB Salzburg/Leipzig players and have a stronger squad than last season
11. Aston Villa- Don't see them improving too much on their position from last season. A good team but still a long way off the top 6.
12. Wolves- Another solid team but until they can start scoring some more goals, they won't get into the top half
13. Brighton- I don't know what to make of Brighton, other than they are surely a worse team for losing Bissouma. Another team that really need a good striker to push on.
14. Nottingham Forest- Forest look to have recruited really well. Henderson in goal is solid, we saw what a difference he made to Sheff Utd in their first season in the PL a few years ago. The nigerian guy from Berlin has a good goalscoring record in Germany so if he can hit the ground running in the PL, I think Forest will be this season's Brentford and stay up fairly comfortably
15. Southampton- tough to know what to make of their signings so far, they still need a decent striker to replace Ings in my opinion. But should have enough about them to finish clear of the relegation zone.
16. Brentford- Losing Eriksen will be a blow, but I like the signing of Hickey. I think they have enough about them (with Toney in particular) to stay up.
17. Crystal Palace- Assuming they don't get Gallagher back, i'm putting Palace as a team to slip backwards from their comfortable mid table finish last season, but just about stay up.
18. Everton- I don't rate Frank Lampard! Losing Richarlison weakens the team and I think they are struggling financially with the new stadium so probably don't have that much to invest in strengthening a squad that only just escaped last year. It wouldn't be a massive shock to see them go this time around.
19. Fulham- Classic yo-yo club. I admit I don't know much about their current team so i've put them here because of that more than anything else! Mitrovic will have to improve on his last PL efforts if they are to survive. I think they will be a bit like Norwich- far too naive defensively but capable of scoring a few and will entertain along the way.
20. Bournemouth- Again they don't look to have signed anyone of note as yet. Clearly a very good championship team, but players like Solanke have been in the PL before and failed to impress, so I can't see them doing anything other than being relegated.
After the top 5, I found this quite a tough exercise, so look forward to seeing a few other opinions on who finishes where.
- harry_rag and StevieDay1983
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5 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Tottenham somehow do a "Spursy" thing and lose to Norwich away
To be fair Arsenal have been bigger bottlers than we have this season!
But i'm not going to lie, I am a bit nervous! As a spurs fan of 30+ years we are good at this sort of thing! I've even heard rumours of food poisoning in the spurs camp, surely not another dodgy lasagne?
Personally, i'm not so sure that Arsenal will win. They needed to win on Monday but didn't play like it. The atmosphere might be either flat or hostile, and the players just don't seem up for it. Everton will be on a high after their comeback, and although it is a quick turnaround for them, I think they can get a draw here. Arsenal don't score many so a 0-0 or 1-1 seems more than achievable for Everton here, maybe even a win, especially if it is clear quite early on that spurs are not going to lose their game.
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Interesting to see Southampton are a whole point bigger vs Man Utd on Saturday than Brighton are against Man Utd on Tuesday. That instinctively feels wrong to me, as i'd say Brighton and Southampton are similar ability teams.
I can't see Man Utd winning both their upcoming home games, as they are just so inconsistent and not playing particularly well. I'd take a draw or win for both Saints and Brighton and expect at least one of those bets to come through.
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Packers -4 (10/11 with Hills) looks good to me. The Saints look likely to regress this season with Brees retiring, and this game is being played in Jacksonville (because of the hurricane). This is not a real Saints home game, and as they are normally one of the most intimidating home crowds is another positive in favour of the Packers.
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Surprised to see that Brighton are favourites at Southampton. Both teams are out of form, but Southampton can partly attribute this to all their injuries, whereas Brighton's problem is the same as ever- they don't take their chances and don't have a top quality striker. Brighton also have a poor record against Saints. I certainly don't see Southampton losing this one, so happy to back the home side at the prices, but with a little bit of cover on the draw as Brighton draw a lot of matches (level with Fulham for most in the PL).
Man U at nearly evens to beat West Ham is also tempting, especially as Lingard can't play for West Ham. However, they didn't play great against Milan, and will be tired from that, plus they have injury problems up front. All the same, the price feels a bit bigger than you'd expect against an ordinary team like West Ham who are admittedly overachieving this season.
As for the NLD, I think the prices are about right, and no result would really surprise me, but if Mourinho wants to endear himself to the spurs fans, he should be targeting the win in this match. The lack of any fan hostility makes this more or less like any other match so it will probably lack the usual passion which could play into spurs' hands. I'd expect there to be goals as both teams are good going forward and not so good defensively. Kane loves a goal against Arsenal and he's a big price to score anytime (2.5 skybet) so i'd take the result out of it and go with Kane to score anytime as my best bet in this match.
- MABS and StevieDay1983
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4 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Tottenham Draw No Bet @ 1.94 with SBK
You are braver than me! Spurs are in no real form at the moment, although did play well away in the Europa League on Thursday. West Ham are a really tough team to predict this year other than I think it's fair to say they are definitely overachieving, so are perhaps due a downturn in form sooner or later.
Another point to note is this is like West Ham's cup final because they hate spurs (we don't really care about them!). I know there is no crowd so perhaps not as relevant this year, but thought i'd mention it.
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Spurs against Fulham is now being played Wednesday after some Covid related fixture alterations. Fulham only got 2 days notice of the game being played, as did spurs, but the difference was spurs were expecting to play midweek (vs Villa) whereas Fulham thought they had the week off so have probably been resting rather than training too extensively.
I'd fancy spurs anyway, but given these circumstances, I am putting a strong bet on spurs half time/full time which you can get for 2.1 with bet365. Aside from the late notice of the fixture being played, spurs tend to get off to a fast start in fixtures, and then look to hold on to what they have. Fulham have picked up of late, but needed extra time to get past QPR in the FA cup, and will hardly have prepared for this game, and aren't exactly a prolific goalscoring team. I think they still have a couple of players out with Covid. For these reasons, I'm also going to have a bit on spurs to win to nil at 2.45 with BetVictor.
Kane and Son have both had a rest, as they didn't play in the FA cup, so should be fresh for this one. I'm sure @harry_rag will find a nice bet on a Kane assist somewhere so will look out for that, as I'm sure he will have plenty of opportunities to score/assist in this one.
- harry_rag and StevieDay1983
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2 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
How are you feeling about the loss to Liverpool in midweek mate? Reckon you boys will bounce back this week or could it rock you a little bit?
Spurs love conceding goals late on so it was no massive shock! I think that's 6 goals conceded in the last 5 minutes of games now.
I fancy spurs this weekend, largely because both teams play in a similar way relying on the counter attack, and I think spurs have the better personnel (Kane & Son) versus mostly Vardy for Leicester. Leicester are so inconsistent (more so at home admittedly) it's hard to know what team will turn up. They have won 5 out of 6 away though, which puts me off wanting to put spurs up as a bet on here.
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From a quick look, I like the price on a lot of the home teams this week.
Both Liverpool and Man City look underpriced to me based on the way this season is going. Liverpool don't win away at the moment, and Palace is a tough game to go to. A shame there is no crowd as that would have helped Palace out, but I still feel Palace are more than capable of getting at least a draw out of this one.
Saints at home to Man City is another high price on the home team. Man City generally aren't scoring enough goals this season, which gives Saints a much better chance in this match than the odds imply. Saints are generally playing well, and are generally good for scoring at least one goal per match. One might well be enough to at least draw this fixture. Saints will also have the backing of 2k fans.
I think at least one of Liverpool and Man City will drop points this weekend, so i'm taking the +1 handicap on both Palace and Saints. One home win or draw results in profit.
- StevieDay1983 and slick
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I can see why backing spurs in some form could be attractive, but Liverpool's home form over the last 3 years is insane. I think its 63 out of 64 wins with the other being a draw since they last lost. I know Liverpool have their injury problems, and they were lucky to get a draw at Fulham. Spurs played quite well against Palace, certainly creating more chances than they have in recent matches, and I think were unfairly criticised after the match for easing off a bit in the second half. Only 3 top saves from the keeper stopped spurs getting the win. A draw at Palace is not a bad result with their team this season, and it was certainly a better draw and performance than Liverpool managed against Fulham
If there is one manager you want in your dugout when you go to a top team looking to get a draw or better, it's got to be Mourinho. I think the prices on the game are about right but gun to head i'd back the draw as you have to respect Liverpool's home form. Spurs don't normally do well at Anfield and I think every spurs fan in the country would take a draw now!
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My main pick is Newcastle. Leeds seem to be everyone's second favourite team because of their style of play, but the fact is they are a lower mid table PL team, as are Newcastle. Leeds have lost 3 out of the last 5, and have only won one game at home all season (out of 6). Newcastle have only lost once away in the PL this season (out of 5) so know how to get points on the road. No way that Leeds should be odds on to win this one, so Newcastle or the draw at 2.1 (betfair) is my strongest pick out of all the games this midweek.
On current form, you have to think Saints are going to go to Arsenal and get a result. Xhaka and Bellerin are missing for Arsenal but that is probably a good thing as they have been two of their worst players this season. Arteta might throw a couple of the europa league kids in to replace those two and freshen things up. I think a draw as the biggest price of the three is what I would take in this game as you'd expect some sort of reaction from Arsenal to their recent form.
- newteech and StevieDay1983
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I also really like the price on Aston Villa. Win their game in hand and they are joint top of the league 8 games in. Brighton, for all the plaudits Graham Potter gets don't seem to have improved, and really lack a goalscorer. Bear in mind that Brighton have drawn at home against Burnley and West Brom recently, and you see the level they are at. Villa have lost their last two at home, but those were losses to good teams, and of course they have also had impressive wins against Liverpool, Leicester and Arsenal already.
All the evidence says Villa are a level above Brighton, and I'd have them much nearer to evens, so odds of 2.2 are worth taking for me.
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I don't get why Man City are odds on to win at spurs. Spurs have done well against city in recent meetings in both the PL and CL, and won this fixture 2-0 last season. City have fitness doubts over Aguero and possibly Sterling, and while you still have to respect them, they will certainly be weaker if one or both of them aren't able to play.
It's hard to know if players are fully fit after the international break, but as far as I know Spurs have no major injury problems, other than Doherty missing through COVID. That means Aurier starting which is a bit of a worry, especially if Sterling is playing, but even so, spurs at odds over 4 seems way too high. Of course i'm biased, but for betting I try and keep all that to one side. For me both teams should be much closer to each other in the betting, so spurs +1 is a pick i'm pretty confident in. I'll also have a small bit on spurs to win outright, as I really don't see why City are so heavily favoured.
- Torque and StevieDay1983
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I like Palace at home to Leeds. Both teams on level points, so not sure why Leeds are deemed favourites for this one. The table is now starting to settle down, and it looks like both teams are of similar ability level so there shouldn't be much in the odds between the teams. Leeds play with their gung-ho style which is easy on the eye, and might be the reason why they are seen as favourites, but I feel Palace are the perfect team to nullify that approach. For me the prices on Palace and Leeds should be swopped so happy to take Palace at home at 3s.
I'm also going to take Fulham +1 at just below evens. They have improved over the past 3 games, and should have more confidence after their first win. However, the main reason for liking Fulham is because of West Ham, who I believe are missing Antonio again, and whoever replaces him (Haller?) will not inspire confidence. I realise they have had some tough fixtures recently and done quite well overall, but West Ham love to throw in a bad result against the lesser teams, so I just feel that Fulham have a better chance of getting something than is being implied. I'm not confident enough to take them outright, but Fulham or the draw looks good to me.
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I think Southampton are worth a go this week. Everton are missing Richarlison through suspension, and I believe Ancelotti has also ruled out Rodriguez and Coleman, who would both be tough to replace (rodriquez especially). Saints are not normally good at home, but managed a 2-0 win over West Brom last home game, and with Everton's injury list, I think they should be slight favourites for this game, not slight underdogs. Saints are good going forward, and with Everton's attacking injuries, I'll take them to outscore Everton.
Man Utd and Chelsea screams draw to me. Both teams are good going forward, but poor at the back so probably not a 0-0! Chelsea have already had two 3-3 draws in this season, so perhaps a 2-2, 3-3 scoreline in this one is not out of the question.
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5 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Manchester City HT/FT @ 2.25 with SpreadEx
De Bruyne out, Aguero out, and Sterling is probably not fully fit after missing the England games.
I don't think Arsenal have any key fitness concerns. Arteta also knows City inside out having been with Guardiola before taking over at Arsenal. All things considered, I don't like the Man City price, so I'd have to go with the away side to get a result in this one.
Agree on BTTS though!
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Some cracking games on this round of fixtures. It's a shame they come right after the international break as that always leaves you less sure where teams are and what players are fit or not.
Man U are 1.7 to beat Newcastle away. You'd have to be crazy to want to take that price in my view! We don't really need to go into what's wrong with Man U, but the short version is they are being priced up on reputation rather than how good they actually are. Newcastle are no world beaters, but are a solid middle PL team, and should not be so big to win this one. Newcastle +1 for me is probably my favourite bet in the PL so far this season.
I also think Southampton have a chance at Chelsea. Chelsea throw in some real odd results, such as the 3-3 with west brom this season, and last season they lost at home to the likes of Bournemouth, West Ham, and Southampton themselves won this fixture last year (when they were still near the bottom of the league). Chelsea's new signings don't seem to have fully gelled yet, and with most of them away these past two weeks, they won't have had much opportunity to put that right. Saints have been strong away going back into last season, and can certainly go and give anyone a game. Much less confidence in this than the Newcastle price, but laying chelsea at 1/2 is my pick on this one.
Aston Villa at Leicester could also be worth a look. Villa have done nothing wrong in the league, while Leicester look like they will be inconsistent this year. How you can go from a 5-2 away win at City to then lose 3-0 at home to West Ham is beyond me. I certainly think Villa are a bit big at 4.2 so again Villa on a +1 is my thinking in this game.
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This looks a tough set of fixtures. Of the 18 matches played in the PL so far, there have only been 7 home wins, vs 11 away wins and not a single draw as yet. Perhaps we'll get a few draws this weekend with Palace-Everton, Sheffield-Leeds, and West Ham-Wolves for me looking good candidates on the basis I think the teams are quite evenly matched.
I quite like the look of Brighton +1 at around 2s, as I think as usual Man U are being priced up partly on name. But Man U will surely be better than the last game vs Palace. Both teams had good away wins in the league cup in midweek. It's not a fully confident shout but I think the price on Brighton is bigger than it should be, so taking them to win or draw seems the logical play.
I also thought about Burnley who are outsiders against Southampton. Saints have started the season poorly, whereas Burnley have only had the one league game, but won a couple of league cup games. However, I think Southampton will come good sooner or later, and they were excellent away from home last season, so I think i'll pass on this one.
Otherwise, nothing really stands out. Chelsea would be my most confident 'banker' of the short priced teams, and I wouldn't be touching spurs at odds around 1.5, although BTTS would be a good shout in this one.
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Just reviving this topic as sky sports have done some analysis suggesting home advantage has been wiped out
Will be interesting to see how bookies react if the current trend of away wins continues another couple of weeks.
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I'm going to go against most of you as I just don't fancy Leeds at those prices. Two newly promoted teams, and no real home advantage with the lack of fans. I wouldn't want to be on Leeds at 1.66 which seems to be the best price at the moment. They managed to lose in the cup to at home to Hull midweek, while Fulham managed a 1-0 win at Ipswich. I know Leeds probably didn't care about the cup, but even so, you'd expect them to beat a Hull team (who also probably didn't care) who have just been relegated to league 1. Fulham +1 at 2.38 with Betfair with a low stake is my bet on this game.
Agree with @neilovan about Palace being a banana skin match for Man U. Again i'm on the away side with a +1 handicap for this one at 3.5 with paddy power. Reasoning is this is Man Utd's first game since the europa league exit, whereas Palace have a game under their belts and I thought were impressive in their game against Southampton last week. Admittedly they managed to lose to Bournemouth on penalties in the week, but I assume weren't fussed about the game. Palace won this game last season, and have a habit of winning away at the bigger teams.
Finally, going with Newcastle again who did the business for me last week. The bookies have Newcastle as only slight favourites which seems wrong given Newcastle finished well above Brighton last season, and have strengthened the team well IMO for this season. Brighton still lack a proven goalscorer, and had to play on Thursday so two days less rest than Newcastle. Newcastle at 2.8 is a great price all things considered.
Premier League Predictions > October 7th & 8th
in Premier League Predictions
Posted
Don't like the prices on any of the teams playing on Saturday. I initially wanted to go with Bournemouth given Everton's woeful home form, but they are far shorter than I thought they would be, to the point I almost like the Everton price. Ultimately, you can't trust either team based on this seasons form so i'm staying away from the outright market.
Decided instead to go with under 2.5 goals on four matches on Saturday- Everton/Bournemouth, Burnley/Chelsea, Fulham/Sheff Utd and Palace/Forest. I just can't see many goals in these matches with teams being of a similar calibre in 3 of the 4 games, and Chelsea have gone under 2.5 goals in most of their games this season.
One bet I do like is spurs to win but both teams to score at 2.75. Luton have shown they can score at this level, and Spurs allow a high number of shots against so I see Luton getting a goal. But I fully expect Spurs to win this one, especially as Luton played in midweek and lost at home to Burnley which will have deflated them after their first win at the weekend.