freddie01

Chesterfield v Gateshead Not ideal for Gateshead that their manager has departed for MK Dons given how well he has done for them and it isn't going to help their promotion cause this season. In the short term though I don't expect too much to change as it would be daft for the interim to change a successful formula. I do keep trying to take Chesterfield on and to be fair Bromley were awful against them the last time I did. I expect Gateshead to be different though and I think they will cause the home side problems. I'd make them closer to Chesterfield in the betting so will take a chance I can get them beat.   Rochdale v Oldham I took Oldham on last week and based on the match report (no stats go on Wyscout for that stage of the FA Cup) we were unlucky not to collect although Oldham. I am however going to back Oldham here as I am expecting a big upturn in performance now Micky Mellon has had a week to kick the team into shape. He looks a great choice of manager for them and for me they have the better squad than Rochdale so will take them to give Mellon his first win at the first time of asking.   Southend v Solihull Moors In hindsight I should have taken on Southend at Yeovil last weekend as they were down to the bare bones partly because some of their players were cup tied or in the case of the loanee from Charlton not allowed to play. Whilst clearly those things aren't an issue this weekend, it does seem they could be struggling for players again as there is illness going through the squad and they have also suffered more injuries. I do think Solihull have been over achieving, but it also seems that they are going to spend money again now they are in such a good position in the league and they signed a good player from Aveley yesterday. Obviously it is hard to know what team Southend are going to capable of putting out, but I do think Solihull are over priced anyway.   Prices from 12pm Friday   Gateshead 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365, William Hill, Skybet and Ladbrokes (Coral are 100/30 and take up to 5/2) Oldham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Solihull 1pt @ 14/5 with Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power and Bet365 (take up to 2/1)

Hartlepool v Eastleigh I got Eastleigh wrong on Tuesday night and in the end they ran out easy winners with Paul McCallum scoring a hattrick. That win means they have only lost twice in their last 10 games. They were the heavy defeat at Gateshead when things went badly wrong and a 1-0 loss to Bromley. They have crept into the top 7 as well and its fair to say that Hartlepool are going very much in the other direction. It is just 1 win in 7 and they lost again on Wednesday at Boreham Wood. They did play quite well in that game and were a bit unlucky to lose it, but they are struggling for goals at the moment with just 3 scored in their last 6 games. I certainly think Eastleigh have a good chance of picking up another win here.   Oldham v Dagenham & Redbridge Dagenham are on a poor run of form having only picked up 2 points in their last 7 games, but I don't think it is quite as bad as that. The two times I have put them up as a bet they have had a red card which I think has cost them the game and that includes last Saturday at Aldershot. They should have beaten York on Tuesday night as well but 2 late goals turned the game in York's favour. I am going to back them again here though because Oldham still haven't turned the corner for me. I know they won 3 on the bounce after sacking Unsworth, but I saw enough in the game against Kidderminster to know that the quality of performance still isn't there. They drew with Wealdstone on Saturday and again with Maidenhead on Tuesday where the fans were saying that the 2nd half performance was just like the Unsworth era. They are crying out for a manager, but for whatever reason they still haven't hired anyone full time. I am happy to take them on here with a Dagenham side who I think have been a bit unlucky not to have picked up more points.   Bishops Stortford v Southport I am really keen on Southport here and make them the best bet of the weekend. They only picked up 1 point in their first 6 games and then they had a change of manager and that has done the trick because they then won their next 3 games and drew with Tamworth last time which given how well they are doing was a good effort. They look a completely different side now and they have a great chance of keeping the unbeaten run going. Stortford have been struggling for goals having only scored 7 in the league and the fact they lost their captain this week to Billericay doesn't bode well. They tried hard to keep him, but Billericay clearly have more money than them. Southport look the better side to me and look a great bet.   Tonbridge Angels v Hemel Hempstead Tonbridge have only managed to beat Dover at home this season and they have only won 3 games overall. They aren't doing as well as they did last season whereas Hemel are the opposite. They have only lost twice so far having beaten both Yeovil and Torquay. They are the better side for me and whilst I don't think there is a huge amount in the price there is enough to get involved.   Welling v Farnborough For me Welling should be higher up the table and they are better than their position in the table suggests. I put them up a couple of weeks ago against Eastbourne when they drew 2-2 and they could easily have won that. They did play on Wednesday as they were taken to a replay by Gosport in the FA Cup, but they won that 4-2 and that was a good effort as Gosport are flying this season. I also opposed Farnborough a couple of weeks ago and they also drew 2-2 with Slough and again we could easily have had a winner in that match as well. Since then they have lost their star striker to Woking and they lost in the FA Cup last weekend to Weston. I'd have Welling as favs for this this and they look a fair bet.   Prices from Thursday morning   Eastleigh 1pt @ 12/5 with Coral and Bet365 (13/5 with Skybet and take up to 2/1) Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 5/2) Southport 3pts @ 2/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 11/8) Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 9/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (11/5 with Hills and take up to 13/8) Welling 1pt @ 9/5 with Skeybet, William Hill and Betfred (Betfair and Paddy Power are 11/5 and take up to 11/8)

Aldershot v Dagenham & Redbridge I was not impressed at all with Aldershot on Tuesday night and whilst they were a goal up and you hope any team you are on can hold on from there, it would have been harsh on Southend if they hadn't got something from the game. Granted Dagenham are struggling for wins and struggling for goals. They haven't scored in 4 games now, indeed they have featured in two 0-0s and two 1-0 defeats so there have been few goals full stop. Prior to those 4 games we were on them to beat Chesterfield and until they went a man down I thought they looked pretty comfortable at 1 up so they are more than capable of beating a side like Aldershot and they are a bit of value to do so.   Bromley v Gateshead Two of the form sides in the division as Bromley haven't lost since losing their first 2 games of the season and Gateshead are unbeaten in 7 having also just lost twice all season. They have looked very good putting 3 past Kidderminster and Maidenhead and on Tuesday 4 past Oxford City. The thing is though they are pretty much the 3 worst teams in the division and when they beat Eastleigh 6-0 recently, they were truly awful. That isn't to say that Gateshead aren't a good side because they are, but for me the kind fixture list has helped them and it has meant the are stupidly short to win this. Again that's not to say they can't win, but I just don't see how they can be odds on to beat a Bromley side who as highlighted have been impossible to beat since the opening two games of the season. If Gateshead were at home I could understand the odds on quote more, although even then I wouldn't have them that short. I think at home Bromley have to be favs and in some ways that should mean given the odds they are that we should be having a decent bet on them, but like I say this is a game between two in form sides and thus it is more a bet because of the odds rather than being really confident Bromley will win.   Hartlepool v Dorking In some ways I was surprised to see Dorking being backed and I did think I might be on my own in wanting to back them at 6/1, but that price has long gone although I still think they are a value bet. Only Rochdale have beaten them in their last 6 games and that was with 2 injury times as well. Hartlepool have gone off the boil in recent weeks having only beaten Wealdstone and Dagenham in their last 7 games. Again like above in some ways any of the 3 results wouldn't surprise, but I don't think Dorking should be as big as they are and I am happy to take a chance on them again on them to win for us for the 2nd consecutive game.   Maidenhead v Chesterfield Granted in previous seasons Maidenhead have perked up when playing the top sides and have caused all sorts of issues for them, but they are just woeful at the moment and as much as I think Chesterfield are still beatable in the title race, they should have way too much for the home side. The intensity that they started the game with at Rochdale on Tuesday was incredible and they fully deserved to be 1 up early doors. As much as Rochdale didn't cause them too many problems in the 2nd half, Chesterfield actually only managed 1 shot which is something for the other sides to cling on to. That shouldn't be an issue here though and they really should cover the -1 handicap.   Double Oldham actually got a higher xG than Kidderminster on Tuesday night, but make no bones about it Oldham were fortunate winners as Kidderminster once again played well at home but failed to win. That has been the story of their season and they just don't have the strike force to score goals. Barnet were very good at York on Tuesday and they do have the fire power to score goals. I do think though the price only has marginal value in it which is why I am sticking them in a double with Altrincham who feature in the live game against Oxford City. Oxford did have a very good spell which includes beating Hartlepool and Boreham Wood, but they were very lucky to get a point at Eastleigh and they were hopeless in their last two games against Oldham and Gateshead. Altrincham didn't create as much as I thought they would against Maidenhead on Tuesday and that is why like Barnet I think they are only marginal value, but I do think they will win.   Scunthorpe v Buxton Given what happened in the 1st game and what is happening off the field I do think Buxton are worth a bet here. If you aren't aware of what happened in the 1st game there was a torrential downpour in the 2nd half and the pitch became unplayable, but the ref only decided to call it off in injury whilst Buxton were 2-1 up. Buxton will be hoping to get the 3 points they deserve and who knows where the heads of the Scunthorpe players will be. Possibly they will want to give their fans a performance in what might be their last ever game at their home, but they might also be thinking they will be needing to look for a new club soon. At the prices again Buxton are worth a value play.   Prices from around 8.30pm on Thursday Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Skybet and Betfred (take up to 7/4) Bromley 1pt @ 13/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and William Hill (14/5 with Coral and 11/4 with Skybet take up to 6/4) Dorking 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 3/1) Chesterfield -1 1pt @ 8/5 with Skybet, Bet365 and Coral (take up to 5/4) Barnet/Altrincham 1pt double @ 3.4/1 with Bet365 and Coral (take up to 11/4) Buxton 1pt @ 7/2 with Skybet and Paddy Power (Betfair are 18/5 and take up to 5/2)

First thing is to Stop trying to win your money back, second thing is stop paying others for ideas, 3rd thing is drop your stakes right down, Like @LEE-GRAYS said read the whole of the lucky 15 thread take note of the ideas that suit you your monetary situation, with all due respect that is probably your level. 4th keep your betting separate from your social situation it will never solve it. Lastly stop gambling and start to have a bet well within your means you will find it far more enjoyable and occasionally profitable. Get rid of the " i'm a loser" attitude, expect to lose what money you bet then you can only ever be pleasantly surprised. Start afresh.

Trying to be careful regards Luton as it's very easy to assume they'll get beaten every week. Having said that I do like the look of West Ham to secure the points tonight. Seven points from a possible nine and scoring well in the process. 
Luton have conceded 7 in two games and although they're at home which they will consider their best chance of survival lies  I think the Hammers will be too strong for them tonight.

Peterborough to beat Northampton looks a decent bet. Peterborough flying high at the moment and the HTH looks great between the two.

I've had a little nibble on Huddersfield double chance v Middlesbrough. I thought they were very poor when they played us last week.

Thanks for the heads up regarding epic odds. Have to take that. GL all.

I'll do a quick tot up of how a "blindly back all the underdogs" strategy would've faired over the first 3 weeks! Seem to remember some unexpected results last year while things settled down. That said, I'll be taking the evens "Epic Odds" that Hills are offering about City.

Unbelievably it's the 4th time in our last 6 Championship games that we face Middlesbrough!  Good performance at Leicester at the weekend, our finishing cost us. I can't look past Leicester for promotion, very strong side with quite a few Premier League quality players in that squad. I definitely fancy them away at Huddersfield. Leeds looked very good going forward in the second half at home to Cardiff. It's a very strong Championship this season. I like the look of Southampton too with Russell Martin as manager, very possession based. I'd have them to win at home to Norwich. 
 

The vast majority of my betting is on the exchanges and I suspect that's the only way any successful punter will be able to bet in the future. That is fine by me, in effect the overround is 2% which is way better than the traditional bookmakers.

Man City v Tottenham over 1.5
Betfair 1.18

Well for some strange reason the Wolves v Liverpool bet didn't take on Betfair. I've never had it happen before. I actually saw it matched. I'll include it as a loss as I don't want to be accused of cheating.
 
Wolves v Liverpool 0-1
West Brom v Chesterfield 4-0

Man Utd v Man City 2-1
Brighton v Liverpool 3-0
 
Heracles v Zwolle over 1.5
Betfair 1.23

And relax....

EPIC Odds - A Goal To Be Scored
Man Utd v Man City 0.5
William Hill 2.00

I wish you the very best but I would be very surprised if you're comfy betting the very large stakes you'll need to to reach your target. But this is Glory Hunters and what punters attempt in here.
Wish you all the best and hope you do it.

I wish you the very best but I would be very surprised if you're comfy betting the very large stakes you'll need to to reach your target. But this is Glory Hunters and what punters attempt in here.
Wish you all the best and hope you do it.

Salernitana v AC Milan 1-2
Leeds v West Ham 2-2
Inter Milan v Napoli 1-0
Palace v Tottenham 0-4
 
Profit + 4.71
 
 

I've decided on a small stake on under 2.5. First game of the competition and can see a cagey start by both teams with neither wanting to lose. Ecuador have also kept 6 clean sheets in successive games so I'm reading.

Man City v Brentford 1-2
Stirling v Annan 0-2
Stranraer v Stenhousemuir 3-2
-------------
Fulham v Man Utd over 1.5
Bet 365 1.22

Thanks Aldric.
Stenhousemuir v East Fife 2-2
 
Lille v Rennes over 1.5
1.25 Will Hill

Good morning everyone.
I'll share here all my bets on Italian Football teams (serie A, serie B and serie C alongside European Cups) for the 2022/2023 season.
No friendlies, no Coppa Italia (or Supercoppa Italiana).
I'm expecting a little over 200 bets per season, all on asian handicap (side).
Majority of selections will be posted in the First parte of the morning (CET) of matchday, so no early betting with low limits. As advised odds I'll use the best available odds on asian markets (incl. Pinnacle) at the time of posting.
Odds average will be around 1.95.
Flat stake at 1u which equates to 1% of my bankroll, so the starting bank will be 100u.
My minimum goal is to reach 5% yield on the long run (1000+ bets) and to show that a metodic approach to betting can lead to very satisfying results.
Be aware that variance is always a factor in betting and should be taken in account. Please bet responsibly, do not overstake and don't chase your losses.
Enjoy your season!
#1 Spal - Reggina (serie B) REGGINA +0.5 @2.120 (Dafabet)

Empoli vs Roma
The final league game of the weekend in Serie A is the clash between Empoli and Roma in a 7:45pm BST kick-off on Monday evening from the Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli. The home team will be looking to pick up their first league win of the season here against a visiting side that had started the season well but have faltered slightly over the past week or so both domestically and in Europe.
Empoli will be keen to get that first victory on their record this season. Head coach Paolo Zanetti has seen his team only defeated once this season but 4 draws from their first 5 league games has seen the team down in 16th position and just 2 points above the relegation zone after 5 league games. The Blues have been in low-scoring affairs all season with 4 of their 5 league games so far producing less than 2.5 goals. A worrying stat is that the club have actually only won two matches since December last year in a dour spell of form that continues from last season. Zanetti has clearly stopped the rot by grinding out draws but the inability to kill teams off is holding them back. It's just 1 win from the last 13 home league games and until the team improves that home record then it will constantly be looking over its soldier at the relegation zone.
Roma became the latest team to benefit from the management of serial winner Jose Mourinho last season as they won the Europa Conference League by a 1-0 score against Feyenoord. The outspoken Portuguese manager is looking to push on in the league now with the team starting the season very well with 3 wins in their first 4 league games but a 4-0 loss away to Udinese in their last league outing was followed by a disappointing 2-1 loss away to Bulgarian side Ludogorets in their first Europa League group stage game. The Giallorossi have now failed to win any of their last 3 away games across all competitions and Mourinho will be keen to rectify that or risk seeing his team fall down the table further from their current 6th place in the table where a win would move them to within 1 point of the league leaders Napoli.
It was Roma who prevailed victorious in both encounters against Empoli last season with a 2-0 win in Rome before a 4-2 victory away in Empoli. I still feel there is a lot of work Zanetti needs to do with this Empoli team and he might have made them hard to beat against the run-of-the-mill teams in Serie A but Roma are an entirely different challenge. I think Roma should get back to winning ways here.
Roma to Win @ 1.79 with SBK
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.10 with Unibet

I swear to god, posting here is the kiss of death. Nice call, Stevie.