Torque

Andy Murray (-5.5 games) to beat Gilles Simon @ 2.11 Marathonbet
Murray should win this with room to spare, but rather than take the unders on the total games line I'm playing this instead. Even though the price is higher, I actually prefer it because Murray could cover this line even if he has a lapse like the one he had against Klizan. If Klizan can take a set against Murray then there's no reason Simon can't, but I don't hold out much hope that the Frenchman can do much more than that. He's poor on serve, Murray is great on return and on top of that motivated to take this title and move closer to the top of the rankings.

Andy Murray (-5.5 games) to beat Gilles Simon @ 2.11 Marathonbet
Murray should win this with room to spare, but rather than take the unders on the total games line I'm playing this instead. Even though the price is higher, I actually prefer it because Murray could cover this line even if he has a lapse like the one he had against Klizan. If Klizan can take a set against Murray then there's no reason Simon can't, but I don't hold out much hope that the Frenchman can do much more than that. He's poor on serve, Murray is great on return and on top of that motivated to take this title and move closer to the top of the rankings.

By doing a lot of research. It's actually not that difficult to find out a lot of information online.  

I wouldn't be certain about Simon. His serve has always been fragile. I've always thought he drops it far too often for a top player. That said, he should be beating the likes of Lorenzi on a hard court given that Lorenzi spends most of his time on clay at Challenger level. Good luck with your bets. I've enjoyed reading your thoughts about different matches and players. Nice to get a fresh voice in this forum.

A couple of match bets for tomorrow.
Marcos Baghdatis to beat Ryan Harrison @ 1.80 1xBet
Harrison got arguably the win of his career against Raonic in the last round and backing it up is often a tough proposition so I'll go against the American in this one. Baghdatis has plenty of experience and looks in good touch just now, only losing in recent times when losing was expected. The win against Paire was a good one considering the talent the Frenchman has, and Baghdatis will need to play well again to get the better of Harrison whose form during this hard court swing has been formidable. The Cypriot often raises his game for the big tournaments though and I think he'll have enough to edge this.
Anastasija Sevastova to beat Kateryna Bondarenko @ 2.18 5Dimes
I'd imagine this has been priced up on the basis of the previous meeting between these two at the start of the year, but personally I would have Sevastova as the favourite here. Her win against Muguruza was impressive, although it has to be said that the Spaniard seems to still be in the midst of a French Open hangover, whilst Bondarenko laboured against Zheng. Both players have spent time away from Tennis and the fact that they both chose to come back shows their desire, but right now I think Sevastova is the more talented player and so I'm happy to back her at odds against.
 

A couple of match bets for tomorrow.
Marcos Baghdatis to beat Ryan Harrison @ 1.80 1xBet
Harrison got arguably the win of his career against Raonic in the last round and backing it up is often a tough proposition so I'll go against the American in this one. Baghdatis has plenty of experience and looks in good touch just now, only losing in recent times when losing was expected. The win against Paire was a good one considering the talent the Frenchman has, and Baghdatis will need to play well again to get the better of Harrison whose form during this hard court swing has been formidable. The Cypriot often raises his game for the big tournaments though and I think he'll have enough to edge this.
Anastasija Sevastova to beat Kateryna Bondarenko @ 2.18 5Dimes
I'd imagine this has been priced up on the basis of the previous meeting between these two at the start of the year, but personally I would have Sevastova as the favourite here. Her win against Muguruza was impressive, although it has to be said that the Spaniard seems to still be in the midst of a French Open hangover, whilst Bondarenko laboured against Zheng. Both players have spent time away from Tennis and the fact that they both chose to come back shows their desire, but right now I think Sevastova is the more talented player and so I'm happy to back her at odds against.
 

Small stake on an outright as well.
Simona Halep to win US Open @ 12.00 Coral
One player who could be coming into this tournament slightly under the radar is Halep. Whilst the focus is on Williams and to a lesser extent Kerber, the Romanian has hardly been mentioned despite having won two tournaments since Wimbledon as well as making the last four in Cincinatti a couple of weeks ago. She's got to get past Williams in her quarter which would be a tough ask based on previous meetings between the two, but we saw last year with Vinci that it is possible to beat Williams even if you haven't got a great record against her.

Just a quarter bet for me so far.
Juan Martin Del Potro to win US Open Quarter 3 @ 4.50 Betfair Sportsbook
I liked what I saw of Del Potro at the Olympics, where he beat Djokovic and Nadal on his way to the final. His forehand looked absolutely massive to me, which is a really important shot for the Argentine now given that his backhand is weaker than it used to be. If he can deploy it as effectively as he did in Rio then he should be able to finish points more quickly and lessen the chances for his opponents to attack his backhand side. The main opposition in this quarter comes from Wawrinka, Kyrgios and Thiem but right now I favour Del Potro over all three. Wawrinka didn't look great in his loss last time out against Dimitrov, Kyrgios remains somewhat enigmatic in my book and Thiem has hardly had any matches on hard recently. Not only that, but another facet of Del Potro's game that looked in good shape at the Olympics and that could help him here was his fighting spirit. He won a number of close sets and matches and pushed Murray all the way in pursuit of the Gold Medal, and I think that bodes well heading into this tournament which also holds special memories for him.

A lot of effort has gone into this, well done and gratz on the profit 

Good pick Fader. It's always nice when a match pans out exactly the way you thought it would.

Good pick Fader. It's always nice when a match pans out exactly the way you thought it would.

Good pick Fader. It's always nice when a match pans out exactly the way you thought it would.

Where to start! Maybe you should quit. If you can't find a type of betting that you enjoy without ending up constantly feeling "absolutely awful" maybe it's not the hobby for you.
I have the opposite psychology to you in that I don't like betting at short odds (I have to think twice about anything under 2/1 and rarely go odds on) and prefer going over to under as I prefer it that when something happens it's positive for my bet rather than negative. I recognise, though, that I miss out on some decent bets because of my reluctance to bet under or at short odds generally. My current "hotshots" thread in systems and strategy is an attempt to educate myself as to whether I'd be better off selling in markets I tend to be a buyer in.
The obvious counters to some of your comments... get a staking plan and don't risk your entire bank on any one bet. Spread the risk, the only justification for betting a much bigger stake on one bet compared to another at similar odds is having the perception that the price offers much better value. Which brings me onto... don't bet on teams you've never heard off in leagues you know nothing about! Specialise to the extent that you can have a go at framing your own prices. There's no such thing as a dead cert in the context of the scenarios you're betting in. You should only bet where you think the price offers some value. That gives you a better chance of winning, or at least losing less and enjoying your betting more!
Try and introduce a bit more discipline and restraint into your betting or jack it in. The alternative appears to be repeating the same old cycle which seems to be making you dissatisfied.

Personally, Id swerve. I looked at this too, but Paire isn't a good gauge to how well Step is playing. Prior to that he could only beat 152nd ranked Myneni in three sets and he's up against a player who has won 17 of his last 19. yes, they were challengers but the confidence it brings for me will mean he could possibly get a set.

Andy Murray to win Wimbledon @ 2.00 Unibet (1 pt)
Having been happy to back Djokovic at odds-on before a ball had even been hit, I'm more than happy to back Murray at even money now we're down to the last 16 and the defending champion has exited the tournament. Murray next plays Kyrgios and I don't think the Australian is ready to beat him at a tournament like this yet, and after that he will play either Gasquet or Tsonga in the last 8 and he has a good record against both. He could face Berdych in the last four and possibly Federer in the final, but I would favour him against Berdych on a fast surface and given the injury problems that Federer has had this year it's hard to see the Swiss beating Murray across five sets.

Andy Murray to win Wimbledon @ 2.00 Unibet (1 pt)
Having been happy to back Djokovic at odds-on before a ball had even been hit, I'm more than happy to back Murray at even money now we're down to the last 16 and the defending champion has exited the tournament. Murray next plays Kyrgios and I don't think the Australian is ready to beat him at a tournament like this yet, and after that he will play either Gasquet or Tsonga in the last 8 and he has a good record against both. He could face Berdych in the last four and possibly Federer in the final, but I would favour him against Berdych on a fast surface and given the injury problems that Federer has had this year it's hard to see the Swiss beating Murray across five sets.

Andy Murray to win Wimbledon @ 2.00 Unibet (1 pt)
Having been happy to back Djokovic at odds-on before a ball had even been hit, I'm more than happy to back Murray at even money now we're down to the last 16 and the defending champion has exited the tournament. Murray next plays Kyrgios and I don't think the Australian is ready to beat him at a tournament like this yet, and after that he will play either Gasquet or Tsonga in the last 8 and he has a good record against both. He could face Berdych in the last four and possibly Federer in the final, but I would favour him against Berdych on a fast surface and given the injury problems that Federer has had this year it's hard to see the Swiss beating Murray across five sets.

I thought very much about this match on Saturday. Odds were 2.3 for Krunic. I made 2.5 for Krunič as good odd. But it was dropped to 1.85. For me there is no value but I admit I don't know how Monica plays on returns even I like her tennis. For example Safarova was the example of return where was reasonable to bet against her with very good odds.
But I like your bet especially on Bondarenko. Even Coco is black horse of Wimbledon. I think she feels that and it could be mentally hard match for her.

Katerina Bondarenko to beat Coco Vandeweghe @ 3.58 Marathonbet (1 pt)
I don't think Bondarenko should be such a high price here, as the Ukrainian is in some good form. She won a few matches in Eastbourne last week, losing to Cibulkova who went on to win the tournament. Vandeweghe is also playing well and won a tournament on grass in Hertogenbosch recently, so for me this is a contest between two players who should be feeling good right now and so I'll side with the underdog as this could be closer than expected.
Mandy Minella to beat Anna Tatishvili @ 2.20 Marathonbet (1 pt)
I'd have Minella as the slight favourite in this one, as she's won plenty of matches recently and has momentum on her side having come through the qualifying rounds. Her record against Tatishvili isn't very good and maybe that's the reason for the prices, but they've never met on grass before. I think this could go either way and as Tatishvili isn't exactly in great form I like the price on Minella.
Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Belinda Bencic @ 2.00 OtoBet (1 pt)
Pironkova loves the grass, is playing well and has a great record at this tournament and she faces an opponent who has lost her last three matches. Bencic must be short on confidence right now, and although she beat Pironkova here last year she was in a much better place then. At even money, I think Pironkova is a great bet and under the circumstances I would have her shorter.
Aleksandra Krunic to beat Monica Niculescu @ 1.85 OtoBet (1 pt)
I think this is a generous price considering that Niculescu hasn't played since the French Open and has lost four matches on the trot. The Romanian can play on grass and her style is capable of unsettling almost any player, but such is the standard of elite level tennis that it's difficult to be away from the tour for any length of time and come back and start winning straight away. Krunic is another player who has come through qualifying and she can get another win here if Niculescu is rusty.

Katerina Bondarenko to beat Coco Vandeweghe @ 3.58 Marathonbet (1 pt)
I don't think Bondarenko should be such a high price here, as the Ukrainian is in some good form. She won a few matches in Eastbourne last week, losing to Cibulkova who went on to win the tournament. Vandeweghe is also playing well and won a tournament on grass in Hertogenbosch recently, so for me this is a contest between two players who should be feeling good right now and so I'll side with the underdog as this could be closer than expected.
Mandy Minella to beat Anna Tatishvili @ 2.20 Marathonbet (1 pt)
I'd have Minella as the slight favourite in this one, as she's won plenty of matches recently and has momentum on her side having come through the qualifying rounds. Her record against Tatishvili isn't very good and maybe that's the reason for the prices, but they've never met on grass before. I think this could go either way and as Tatishvili isn't exactly in great form I like the price on Minella.
Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Belinda Bencic @ 2.00 OtoBet (1 pt)
Pironkova loves the grass, is playing well and has a great record at this tournament and she faces an opponent who has lost her last three matches. Bencic must be short on confidence right now, and although she beat Pironkova here last year she was in a much better place then. At even money, I think Pironkova is a great bet and under the circumstances I would have her shorter.
Aleksandra Krunic to beat Monica Niculescu @ 1.85 OtoBet (1 pt)
I think this is a generous price considering that Niculescu hasn't played since the French Open and has lost four matches on the trot. The Romanian can play on grass and her style is capable of unsettling almost any player, but such is the standard of elite level tennis that it's difficult to be away from the tour for any length of time and come back and start winning straight away. Krunic is another player who has come through qualifying and she can get another win here if Niculescu is rusty.

Novak Djokovic to win Wimbledon @ 1.86 Betfair (1 pt)
The clamour to back Murray is understandable as his form is good and he has Lendl back in his corner, but if Djokovic plays his best then I'd say he's a class above everyone else and should win this. I can't see how he won't at least make the final and if he does his price to win should be lower than this no matter who he plays, so whilst it isn't a very original play I can see some value in the price.
Serena Williams to win Wimbledon @ 2.63 Skybet (1 pt)
Some might say that this price is too short given the emergence of Muguruza and the fact that Williams lost in the final of the Australian Open and the French Open, but I still think she is a worthy favourite here and would be shorter if it weren't for her loss to Muguruza at Roland Garros. It's worth noting though that clay has never been her favourite surface, and also that her record in this tournament is a lot stronger. She's still the one to beat in my opinion and as such I'm happy to back her to finally catch Graf on 22 Slams.

Ruben Bemelmans to beat Thomaz Bellucci @ 2.02 Marathonbet (1 pt)
I think Bemelmans should be the favourite rather than a very slight underdog, as Bellucci has only played once since the French Open which was a loss to Johnson on grass in Nottingham. Bemelmans is no world-beater as his ranking shows, but he's come through qualifying and has a run of wins behind him and as Bellucci prefers clay this is a good chance for the Belgian to get a win over a higher ranked player.
Jeremy Chardy to beat Gael Monfils @ 2.46 Marathonbet (1 pt)
Monfils hasn't played since May and his record at this tournament is poor for a player of his standard, and so it could be worth backing Chardy to cause an upset in this battle of the Frenchmen. Chardy warmed up for this tournament at the Boodles exhibition and so he's had some matches on grass, and even though I'm sure Monfils has been practising on the surface there's just no way to know where his game is at right now.

Back Karolina Pliskova to win the 3rd quarter for a 4/10 stake at 8.00 with Paddy Power
Back Dominika Cibulkova to win the 2nd quarter for a 4/10 stake at 17.00 with Paddy Power
Back Sorana Cirstea (+1.5 sets) to beat Petra Kvitova for a 7/10 stake at 2.20 with Paddy Power
Back Anna-Lena Friedsam to beat Zarina Diyas for a 7/10 stake at 1.61 with Paddy Power
Back Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Belinda Bencic for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with BetVictor
Pliskova and Cibulkova should be fairly self-explanatory, they've got both the quality and form to win their quarters. Cirstea could do well against Kvitova in the first round, Friedsam should get the job done against Diyas (who hasn't played since the French Open), and I'd also have Pironkova as a fairly decent favourite against Bencic (who's yet to bounce back from the injury break).
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Ratings for the US Open:
US Open Oakmont Country Club,Pennsylvania     Par 70 7,219 yards               Code  Player  FORM US OPEN SKILLS TOTAL             1 Matt Kuchar 64 66 19 82.67 2 Charl Schwartzel 31 61 26 65.78 3 Dustin Johnson 59 51 8 65.33 4 Jason Dufner 43 54 16 63.00 5 Phil Mickelson 50 46 16 62.22 6 Jason Day 34 61 16 61.89 7 Rory McIlroy 48 47 13 60.11 8 Justin Rose 30 52 22 57.78 9 Sergio Garcia 23 52 21 53.22 10 Rickie Fowler 18 36 39 51.78 11 Adam Scott 26 48 18 51.33 12 Jordan Spieth 43 41 8 50.89 13 Brandt Snedeker 8 58 14 44.67 14 Hideki Matsuyama 29 29 22 44.44 15 Kevin Chappell 35 41 0 42.44 16 Webb Simpson 32 42 0 41.11 17 Brooks Koepka 44 22 6 40.00 18 Patrick Reed 37 16 19 39.89 19 Martin Kaymer 15 53 0 37.78 20 Daniel Berger 50 4 10 35.33 21 Greame McDowell 13 49 0 34.44 22 Jim Furyk 16 46 0 34.44 23 Russell Knox 16 6 38 33.56 24 Tony Finau 47 13 0 33.33 25 Henrik Stenson 0 39 18 31.44 26 Lee Westwood 0 56 0 31.11 27 Danny Lee 54 0 0 30.00 28 Louis Oosthuizen 8 29 11 26.56 29 Paul Casey 18 16 12 25.33 30 Marc Leishman 27 0 18 25.22 31 Billy Horschel 8 32 0 22.22 32 Harrris English 39 0 0 21.67 33 Branden Grace 2 18 16 20.22 34 Bubba Watson 10 8 18 20.00 35 JB Holmes 26 10 0 20.00 36 Kevin Na 3 27 6 19.78 37 Zach Johnson 20 14 0 18.89 38 Emiliano Grillo 24 0 10 18.67 39 Bill Haas 7 6 20 18.11 40 Jimmy Walker 19 12 0 17.22 41 Shane Lowry 11 15 0 14.44 42 Charley Hoffman 19 6 0 13.89 43 Kevin Kisner 11 14 0 13.89 45 Chris Kirk 9 4 10 12.78 45 Ryan Moore 10 8 0 10.00 46 Byeong-Hun An 16 0 0 8.89 47 Justin Thomas 15 0 0 8.33 48 Danny Willett 0 1 0 0.56 49 Chris Wood 0 0 0 0.00 50 Matthew Fitzpatrick 0 0 0 0.00

Back Marcos Baghdatis to beat Dustin Brown for a 7/10 stake at 1.60 with BetVictor
Fancy Baghdatis at this price, the only bet that I like from tomorrow's schedule in all fairness. If he plays like he did against Berdych today, he should be able to beat Brown with something to spare.
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