Keep losing big money on low odds

[recklessrookie]

Hi there

 

Need some help with my strategy as I keep losing big money. I am constantly drawn to the low odds and my favourite to back is the unders markets in football. The psychology of why i like the unders markets is that your bet starts off in a winning position, I can't stand backing overs and sitting there frustrated as goals don't go in.

But i keep losing big, I dont have a staking plan I tend to bet my entire bank roll on low odds around 1.10-1.30. The amount of games I bet on teams I haven't even heard of is unreal, Whats most frustrating is the very few times I back the overs market they don't seem to come in arghhhh!

For exapmple this morning i lost a bet backing a game in Japanese J league 2 , backing under 5.5 in a game that was 2-2 with about 20 minutes left at rubbish odds of about 1.20. Sooooo frustrating. Yet at the same time I backed over 3.5 goals in another J league 2 game where the heavy favourites were losing 2-0 at half time so backing over 3.5 at odds of evens seemed  a cert but did it come in ? of course it didn't!

Is there any way that backing low odds can be profitable in the long run? I guess its obvious that if i keep betting with all, or nearly all of my bankroll its going to end up crashing. The amount of times ive taken say £50 up to £1000 plus only to blow the lot and feel absolutely awful. Even when I don't bet with my whole bankroll when I lose i end up getting frustrated and chasing the money, I don't seem to be able to stop this psychology.

Maybe I should quit.

[harry_rag]

Where to start! Maybe you should quit. If you can't find a type of betting that you enjoy without ending up constantly feeling "absolutely awful" maybe it's not the hobby for you.

I have the opposite psychology to you in that I don't like betting at short odds (I have to think twice about anything under 2/1 and rarely go odds on) and prefer going over to under as I prefer it that when something happens it's positive for my bet rather than negative. I recognise, though, that I miss out on some decent bets because of my reluctance to bet under or at short odds generally. My current "hotshots" thread in systems and strategy is an attempt to educate myself as to whether I'd be better off selling in markets I tend to be a buyer in.

The obvious counters to some of your comments... get a staking plan and don't risk your entire bank on any one bet. Spread the risk, the only justification for betting a much bigger stake on one bet compared to another at similar odds is having the perception that the price offers much better value. Which brings me onto... don't bet on teams you've never heard off in leagues you know nothing about! Specialise to the extent that you can have a go at framing your own prices. There's no such thing as a dead cert in the context of the scenarios you're betting in. You should only bet where you think the price offers some value. That gives you a better chance of winning, or at least losing less and enjoying your betting more!

Try and introduce a bit more discipline and restraint into your betting or jack it in. The alternative appears to be repeating the same old cycle which seems to be making you dissatisfied.

[Mattmid]

As Harry says use a staking plan and keep a note of your bets on a spreadsheet. If you are betting on low odds unders, write alongside the bet why you are betting it, why you think it will win, write the current score and minutes gone too then you can look back on winning/losing bets and maybe see where you are going wrong.   For instance that heavy favourite 2-0 down at half time. There is no way over 3.5 is a 'cert' at that point.  Does the favourite regularly score a lot of goals, does the other team concede a lot?  Maybe the fave is one of those teams who win 1-0, 2-1, maybe the opponents don't concede many, etc?  Plus I've got to say Japan League 2 is anything but predictable for me, I've lost count of the times the results don't go anywhere near what you'd expect in that league. 

Also look at it as a percentage, what were the odds at half time.  Assuming it was odds on, was it a cert that if they played that half time 10 times, more than 5 times they would score another two goals? That's a lot of times to get two goals for the one thing you can never guarantee in football, a goal. 

Also maybe look at something else if you want to bet odds on. I find unders and over extremely difficult to profit on.  There's plenty of odds on bets to choose from. 

 

 

[MPLouis]

On 7/24/2016, 12:24:07, recklessrookie said:

Need some help with my strategy as I keep losing big money ... The amount of times ive taken say £50 up to £1000 plus only to blow the lot and feel absolutely awful. Even when I don't bet with my whole bankroll when I lose i end up getting frustrated and chasing the money, I don't seem to be able to stop this psychology.

Maybe I should quit.

I would try:

1. Set your bank (say £100)

2. Set a percentage stake for each bet - say 5% = £5 per bet

3. If you feel you are losing and things are getting out of control, REDUCE your stakes. Say from 5% to 3%.

4. Keep reducing your % stake until you feel you are in control.

5. Then you can gradually increase the stakes if you want.

6. In general, the lower the stakes, the less the excitement, but the easier it should be to feel in control.

[Dylan Lynch]

Guys agree with u, nice advice, howether with regret a lot us cannot control in front of betting activity and this should be taken n=by a specials. 
As a joke, for those who a loosing a lot, please do not take it personal: "If you cannot bet go fishing, maybe there you will have  more success"