Torque

6-4 *3-0 and Kvitova still lost apparently, even though she then even had a break lead in the decider. How can you not love tennis? It really has been a nightmare ride for me since the Australian Open, I'll be only in a cosmetic profit for the year in posted picks if Nadal doesn't cover today. That said, the recent days were great for my pre-season picks, so there's that small plus at the very least. Great job to everyone who's making a sense out of this Indian Wells though!

Is it just me or are there certain players that make tennis look painful. Players that never seem to win easily no matter who they play against - every point is a war of attrition. Players who turn what looks like the most routine win into the most drawn-out saga. Exhibit number one for me has to be Gilles Simon, closely followed by Feliciano. They seldom win easy, they're seldom priced as massive favourites.

It's a good point and I'll expand on it, in a general way.

Let's say Nadal is 1.01 to beat a player ranked 20 in the world - would you back him? Probably not, because it's 1.01 right? What about 1.20? 1.30? 1.50? There comes a time when every bet is backable because the odds are in your opinion, larger than they should be. The real skill in betting is bank management and discipline.  

Same applies to backing underdogs. Of course you have to think they will win, but again, would you back the player ranked 20 at 5000/1? There is always a line and it's actually the odds that dictate whether you should bet or not.

Ah Bingham come on mate. 3-1 up and you lose 6-4.
Last of the Quarter-finals today/tonight. First we have Ronnie againt Higgins. Normally I would be looking at Ronnie on a handicap here, but I think Higgins may actually be some value today. He actually has quite a good recent h2h against Ronnie winning 2 of the last 3 including a 5-0 whitewash. Ronnie in my opinion just wants a couple of centuries in this tournament so that he can hit the big milestone later down the line in Sheffield.
In the second match, I agree with four-leaf that Robertson looks abit of value. He beat Williams easier than 6-4 really. Williams hit a big fluke otherwise that match was 6-3. Trump looked awesome against Jimmy Robertson but Jimmy has probably some of the worst form on tour right now. Lisowski handed the win to Trump. So he hasn't been properly tested. He will get that here. The first couple of frames are key.
4pts J.Higgins to beat R.O'Sullivan 9/4 paddypower
4pts N.Robertson to beat J.Trump 11/8 bet365

If you are not sure for some match, just skip it. This is the best way to deal with those. Search for matches that you are very confident with.

Borna Coric to beat Roger Federer @ 3.50 Boylesports
Coric should have a chance in this one and having got the better of Federer twice already in his fledgling career, if he does get one he can take it - unlike Fucsovics who let Federer off the hook when blowing two set points that would have seen him take the first set against the Swiss and lay the foundation for a big win. You could argue that neither player has looked in the best of form at this tournament, but like so many things it depends on perspective.
For me, the struggles that Coric has successfully come through to reach this round could be a good thing. As a younger player it's good to know that you can fight and scrap and win ugly, whereas for Federer I'd argue that he doesn't need or want to be pushed to the limit as often as he has in his previous matches here and there's not the same upside to winning tight matches for him as there is for Coric. I'm sure Federer realises that he hasn't played all that well so far which is probably his main focus, whilst Coric should take heart from finding a way to get across the line in his matches. I think the young Croat's perspective will be a lot more positive than Federer's will be, and that he can do what none of Kohlschreiber, Verdasco or Fucsovics managed and prevail against a Federer who has looked vulnerable all week.

Borna Coric to beat Roger Federer @ 3.50 Boylesports
Coric should have a chance in this one and having got the better of Federer twice already in his fledgling career, if he does get one he can take it - unlike Fucsovics who let Federer off the hook when blowing two set points that would have seen him take the first set against the Swiss and lay the foundation for a big win. You could argue that neither player has looked in the best of form at this tournament, but like so many things it depends on perspective.
For me, the struggles that Coric has successfully come through to reach this round could be a good thing. As a younger player it's good to know that you can fight and scrap and win ugly, whereas for Federer I'd argue that he doesn't need or want to be pushed to the limit as often as he has in his previous matches here and there's not the same upside to winning tight matches for him as there is for Coric. I'm sure Federer realises that he hasn't played all that well so far which is probably his main focus, whilst Coric should take heart from finding a way to get across the line in his matches. I think the young Croat's perspective will be a lot more positive than Federer's will be, and that he can do what none of Kohlschreiber, Verdasco or Fucsovics managed and prevail against a Federer who has looked vulnerable all week.

Borna Coric to beat Roger Federer @ 3.50 Boylesports
Coric should have a chance in this one and having got the better of Federer twice already in his fledgling career, if he does get one he can take it - unlike Fucsovics who let Federer off the hook when blowing two set points that would have seen him take the first set against the Swiss and lay the foundation for a big win. You could argue that neither player has looked in the best of form at this tournament, but like so many things it depends on perspective.
For me, the struggles that Coric has successfully come through to reach this round could be a good thing. As a younger player it's good to know that you can fight and scrap and win ugly, whereas for Federer I'd argue that he doesn't need or want to be pushed to the limit as often as he has in his previous matches here and there's not the same upside to winning tight matches for him as there is for Coric. I'm sure Federer realises that he hasn't played all that well so far which is probably his main focus, whilst Coric should take heart from finding a way to get across the line in his matches. I think the young Croat's perspective will be a lot more positive than Federer's will be, and that he can do what none of Kohlschreiber, Verdasco or Fucsovics managed and prevail against a Federer who has looked vulnerable all week.

Borna Coric to beat Roger Federer @ 3.50 Boylesports
Coric should have a chance in this one and having got the better of Federer twice already in his fledgling career, if he does get one he can take it - unlike Fucsovics who let Federer off the hook when blowing two set points that would have seen him take the first set against the Swiss and lay the foundation for a big win. You could argue that neither player has looked in the best of form at this tournament, but like so many things it depends on perspective.
For me, the struggles that Coric has successfully come through to reach this round could be a good thing. As a younger player it's good to know that you can fight and scrap and win ugly, whereas for Federer I'd argue that he doesn't need or want to be pushed to the limit as often as he has in his previous matches here and there's not the same upside to winning tight matches for him as there is for Coric. I'm sure Federer realises that he hasn't played all that well so far which is probably his main focus, whilst Coric should take heart from finding a way to get across the line in his matches. I think the young Croat's perspective will be a lot more positive than Federer's will be, and that he can do what none of Kohlschreiber, Verdasco or Fucsovics managed and prevail against a Federer who has looked vulnerable all week.

Borna Coric to beat Roger Federer @ 3.50 Boylesports
Coric should have a chance in this one and having got the better of Federer twice already in his fledgling career, if he does get one he can take it - unlike Fucsovics who let Federer off the hook when blowing two set points that would have seen him take the first set against the Swiss and lay the foundation for a big win. You could argue that neither player has looked in the best of form at this tournament, but like so many things it depends on perspective.
For me, the struggles that Coric has successfully come through to reach this round could be a good thing. As a younger player it's good to know that you can fight and scrap and win ugly, whereas for Federer I'd argue that he doesn't need or want to be pushed to the limit as often as he has in his previous matches here and there's not the same upside to winning tight matches for him as there is for Coric. I'm sure Federer realises that he hasn't played all that well so far which is probably his main focus, whilst Coric should take heart from finding a way to get across the line in his matches. I think the young Croat's perspective will be a lot more positive than Federer's will be, and that he can do what none of Kohlschreiber, Verdasco or Fucsovics managed and prevail against a Federer who has looked vulnerable all week.

Today I went relatively big on Fucsovics to cover the game handicap, and tomorrow will more than probably do the same on Coric. He will be a much difficult opponent for Roger than Basilashvili would have been mainly because of his style of play. I would like to see the game handicap lines first, but the set handicap is also a very good option. I admit that Coric is not playing his very best tennis at the moment, and dropped a set during all his matches so far in Dubai, but I barely expect signs of fatigue on him (at least much less than on Roger). I don't really like how the GOAT moves around the court this week, and I agree with all of you who lay him during these days. They played three times last year, Coric won twice and lost one in the decisive set.

I'm not saying I think Fucsovics will win just that as much of a paradox as it might seem, the lesser player compared to Kohlschreiber and Verdasco in Fucsovics has a better chance of causing an upset win IMHO. Now I've said that Federer will probably click into gear and beat Fucsovics easily. That's betting for you 
Oh and Fucsovics needn't be spectacular to beat Federer - Just ask Millman. Nobody will ever convince me that Millman beat Federer. Federer beat Federer. What Millman did, and for which he deserves enormous credit, is hung in there. If Fucsovics can hang tough in the same way it's possible Federer could do the rest for him.

They certainly are. They're also more accomplished than the likes of Millman, Donskoy, Stakhovsky, Kokkinakis and any of the numerous other rank outsiders over the years to beat the Swiss. Being more accomplished doesn't count for much IMO when you've never beaten the player across the net from you in a dozen tries or more.

Never mind all that... Go Mackie Go!!! 

Gael Monfils to win ATP Dubai @ 6.00 Betfair Exchange
Borna Coric to win ATP Dubai @ 10.00 Betfred
I'm going to stick my neck on the block and oppose Federer to take the title in Dubai by backing Monfils from the top half of the draw and Coric from the bottom half. I'm backing Monfils as he's in great form and really should make the last four at least as Berankis is beatable, and I'm backing Coric because he's beaten Federer before and so should be able to perform if he meets him in the last four.

Gael Monfils to win ATP Dubai @ 6.00 Betfair Exchange
Borna Coric to win ATP Dubai @ 10.00 Betfred
I'm going to stick my neck on the block and oppose Federer to take the title in Dubai by backing Monfils from the top half of the draw and Coric from the bottom half. I'm backing Monfils as he's in great form and really should make the last four at least as Berankis is beatable, and I'm backing Coric because he's beaten Federer before and so should be able to perform if he meets him in the last four.

Never mind all that... Go Mackie Go!!! 

I'm not saying I think Fucsovics will win just that as much of a paradox as it might seem, the lesser player compared to Kohlschreiber and Verdasco in Fucsovics has a better chance of causing an upset win IMHO. Now I've said that Federer will probably click into gear and beat Fucsovics easily. That's betting for you 
Oh and Fucsovics needn't be spectacular to beat Federer - Just ask Millman. Nobody will ever convince me that Millman beat Federer. Federer beat Federer. What Millman did, and for which he deserves enormous credit, is hung in there. If Fucsovics can hang tough in the same way it's possible Federer could do the rest for him.

Never mind all that... Go Mackie Go!!! 

My two cents on Federer v Fucsovics is that Fucsovics will never have a better chance to score a big win. Even if he goes a set down, he'll know he's still in it as Federer isn't closing out matches in straight sets with any kind of regularity at all. On top of that, Fucsovics took a set against Djokovic earlier in the season so a set against Federer must be a possibility and if it does go to three sets then who knows who takes the W. Kohli and Verdasco might have both fallen away but much of that probably has to do with all the losses they've suffered against Federer down the years. Fucsovics doesn't carry those kind of scars which could make him dangerous if he is able to be competitive in the same way Kohli and Verdasco were.

My two cents on Federer v Fucsovics is that Fucsovics will never have a better chance to score a big win. Even if he goes a set down, he'll know he's still in it as Federer isn't closing out matches in straight sets with any kind of regularity at all. On top of that, Fucsovics took a set against Djokovic earlier in the season so a set against Federer must be a possibility and if it does go to three sets then who knows who takes the W. Kohli and Verdasco might have both fallen away but much of that probably has to do with all the losses they've suffered against Federer down the years. Fucsovics doesn't carry those kind of scars which could make him dangerous if he is able to be competitive in the same way Kohli and Verdasco were.

Unlucky with this. Federer looked very shaky in the second set before the status quo was restored in the decider. I'd be very wary of backing Federer this season, despite the promising results at the Hopman Cup and to a lesser degree the Australian Open. I don't have any numbers to back it up so this is purely anecdotal, but as his level has dropped over the last year or so it seems to me that he's dropping the second set of matches on an increasingly regular basis and also not winning in straight sets as often as he used to. If I'm right about that then the chances are it's symptomatic of the drop in level that I mentioned and also his age - physically things are typically very different in your late 30's compared to your late 20's and also mentally concentration and focus can become more difficult. Because of who he is though and his name he'll probably continue to be priced very short against most players but I think most players would think they have a chance against him now - the aura is not the same anymore. It wouldn't surprise me if betting against him for the remainder of the season yielded a profit.

Unlucky with this. Federer looked very shaky in the second set before the status quo was restored in the decider. I'd be very wary of backing Federer this season, despite the promising results at the Hopman Cup and to a lesser degree the Australian Open. I don't have any numbers to back it up so this is purely anecdotal, but as his level has dropped over the last year or so it seems to me that he's dropping the second set of matches on an increasingly regular basis and also not winning in straight sets as often as he used to. If I'm right about that then the chances are it's symptomatic of the drop in level that I mentioned and also his age - physically things are typically very different in your late 30's compared to your late 20's and also mentally concentration and focus can become more difficult. Because of who he is though and his name he'll probably continue to be priced very short against most players but I think most players would think they have a chance against him now - the aura is not the same anymore. It wouldn't surprise me if betting against him for the remainder of the season yielded a profit.

Unlucky with this. Federer looked very shaky in the second set before the status quo was restored in the decider. I'd be very wary of backing Federer this season, despite the promising results at the Hopman Cup and to a lesser degree the Australian Open. I don't have any numbers to back it up so this is purely anecdotal, but as his level has dropped over the last year or so it seems to me that he's dropping the second set of matches on an increasingly regular basis and also not winning in straight sets as often as he used to. If I'm right about that then the chances are it's symptomatic of the drop in level that I mentioned and also his age - physically things are typically very different in your late 30's compared to your late 20's and also mentally concentration and focus can become more difficult. Because of who he is though and his name he'll probably continue to be priced very short against most players but I think most players would think they have a chance against him now - the aura is not the same anymore. It wouldn't surprise me if betting against him for the remainder of the season yielded a profit.

Unlucky with this. Federer looked very shaky in the second set before the status quo was restored in the decider. I'd be very wary of backing Federer this season, despite the promising results at the Hopman Cup and to a lesser degree the Australian Open. I don't have any numbers to back it up so this is purely anecdotal, but as his level has dropped over the last year or so it seems to me that he's dropping the second set of matches on an increasingly regular basis and also not winning in straight sets as often as he used to. If I'm right about that then the chances are it's symptomatic of the drop in level that I mentioned and also his age - physically things are typically very different in your late 30's compared to your late 20's and also mentally concentration and focus can become more difficult. Because of who he is though and his name he'll probably continue to be priced very short against most players but I think most players would think they have a chance against him now - the aura is not the same anymore. It wouldn't surprise me if betting against him for the remainder of the season yielded a profit.