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Fader

The Players Championship 2019

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Hopefully more quality here than the Indian Open. Starts tomorrow evening, so I will have some time tomorrow to look properly at this. Draw is below : 

M.Allen Vs S.Maguire
D.Gilbert Vs S.Bingham
R.O'Sullivan Vs B.Hawkins
M.Selby Vs J.Higgins
N.Robertson Vs J.Perry
M.Williams Vs A.Carter
K.Wilson Vs J.Lisowski
J.Trump Vs J.Robertson

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Outright Preview :

We're in Preston for the second time in this tournaments history. For the last couple of years it's been in Wales but Ronnie will look to retain the title alittle closer to home. Looking through this field, only Allen, Trump & Hawkins have won this title previously so it could well be a new name on the trophy.

This looks very much like a Ronnie Vs Trump final based on form and history but no value in that whatsoever. A few of these players are quite low on morale, confidence and form. Also, some have been played alot of snooker whilst others are rested.

In the top half I'm going to give Bingham another go. he is hitting the ball really well and I think he will be well up for this event. I'm not too sure how much he was motivated in the Indian Open but nevertheless he still didn't play badly. He faces Gilbert in the 1st round who he has a good record against and then a potentially out-of-form Mark Allen in the next. Obviously, he would have to beat the likes of Ronnie and Judd etc still but he is a good price to do so. I'm also taking a small punt on Maguire. He got unlucky facing Judd last year and pushed him 6-4. The worry is the h2h with Allen (has the beating of him) but if he gets past that, who knows. The price is too big.

In the bottom half, Neil Robertson looks the form horse to go up against Trump, however 8/1 seems abit skinny for a player who would have to beat Trump and Ronnie. I will instead plump for 2 big priced outsiders. Firstly, Kyren Wilson, who is quite overprived for his level. He would face Lisowski and then Trump but has a good record against Trump in fairness. Second, Ali Carter had a bit of good form recently getting to the final of the Grand Prix and at 40s he is worth a little nibble each-way.

2pts K.Wilson to win the Players 16/1 boylesports
2pts S.Bingham to win the Players 20/1 betfred
1pt E/W A.Carter to win the Players 40/1 Coral
1pt S.Maguire to win the Players 50/1 betfred

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Day 1 Preview :

R.O'Sullivan Vs B.Hawkins
M.Allen Vs S.Maguire

Difficult matches to call really, on Day 1. Ofcourse if Ronnie is up for it he wins. Barry has every chance if not though, but at 5/2, I'm not sure that's worth it. Ronnie has been basically moaning he has to get ranking points and you rarely see him lose a first round match, too.

I will have a bet on Maguire to beat Allen though. Maguire doesn't have the best record against Mark, however I just have a feeling Maguire will be up for this one and Allen's recent form has been somewhat average.

4pts S.Maguire to beat M.Allen 13/8 bet365
 

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Well, Maguire didn't turn up atall until the last couple of frames. On to today. We have 4 matches today. 2 at 1pm and 2 at 7pm. In the afternoon we have Neil Robertson against Joe Perry and Mark Williams Vs Ali Carter and then this evening, Trump Vs Jimmy Robertson and Kyren Wilson Vs Jack Lisowski.

Neil Robertson is back to form right now and I can't see anything but a win for him against Joe Perry. The value isn't there but Robbo with a 1.5 handicap is around about evens and I will take that. I like Ali Carter to beat Williams today but odds wise it just doesn't interest me enough so I'm going to just go with Williams to be the highest break scorer. He has been in good form at the practise table apparenty (tweeted a 146 x 3 in a day) and Ali isn't a prolific scorer as Williams really.

I see no value in the Trump match atall where I would be looking at a handicap as Jimmy is bang out of form. I will also sit out the final match and hope on Kyren getting through. One other little interest is a sky bet boost bet which is centuries for all the favourite which i will throw a point at.

4pts N.Robertson (-1.5 frames) to beat J.Perry 3/4 coral
3pts M.Williams (Highest break) Vs A.Carter 4/6 bet365
1pt Trump/Robertson/Wilson/Williams all to score a century 11/2 skybet

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Both winners there and every chance of the 4 centuries coming in too. All depends on Kyrens form as would imagine Judd would get a century. One more for tonight

Lisowski has a good record against Kyren Wilson. He has won 3 of the last 4 between them both. The last 3 matches between these two have also gone to a deciding frame, so I will betting on the frame total on this one. I do fancy Wilson here, but Kyren hasn't had too great of form in the last couple of tournaments and Lisowski on his day can score heavy. 

2.5pts Over 8.5 frames (K.Wilson Vs J.Lisowski) 23/20 coral

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Well the outrights are not really performing but atleast the match markets are coming in.

We finish Round 1 this afternoon with Bingham facing David Gilbert and Higgins against Selby and then tonight we start the Quartrer-Finals with Judd Trump taking on Lisowski.

Stuart Bingham has an incredible head-2-head against Gilbert. 10 matches they have played and 10 wins for Gilbert. Last time they played was in the UK last year and Bingham won 6-2. That match was 3 months ago and if anything, Gilbert was playing better then. he seems to have let his form slip alittle in recent weeks. I'm going to take Bingham on a 1.5 handicap. That would have been covered in every match minus two between these two and that was a "first to 4/5"

Mark Selby takes on John Higgins also in the afternoon session and I fancy Selby to come through, however my bet will be for Selby to take the biggest break. Higgins still doesn't look to be hitting the balls like before. He has hit 7 centuries in his 17 matches this year and that was against mostly vastly inferiour players. Selby has played 13 (excluding champions league) and has hit 15 centuries.

I will take a look at tonight's match this afternoon.

5pts S.Bingham (-1.5 frames) to beat D.Gilbert 4/5 coral
5.5pts M.Selby (Highest break) Vs J.Higgins 8/11 paddypower

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Nice, I thought Bingham was going to throw it away. One ball away from 4-1 and next time I look it's 4-3 to Gilbert, but both winners. Bingham through 6-4 to face Mark Allen tomorrow. Higgins still looks dodgy but nevertheless beats Selby. As expected though, Selby was the biggest break man. 5 in a row on the tips.

Tonight I'm really not sure what to expect from Judd. I would take Trump on handicap, but it bothers me the close friendship. Makes me think the "ruthlessness" will not be there for Trump. If I was pushed, I would take Trump on a handicap, but I'm sitting out tonight's match and will be back for tomorrows other 3 Quarter-final ties.

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Agreed on Robertson. 6 of the last 7 won including a 6-3 win at the Masters a couple of months ago. I do think Williams will put up more of a fight today though. He is scoring much better now and by his own admission hasn't been practising much prior to this month. He is going to be looking at Sheffield prep here (like the rest) and I think it has the potential to be a close match. With that in mind, I am going to take the centuries bet. Williams got 2 in the last round when beating Carter and Robertson also got 2 against Perry. Robertson also got 2 in his prior match, at the China Open quallies so I would be suprise to see less than 2 overall centuries.

In the other match, this also looks like it has the potential to be close. Allen won the last tie last year 6-5 but that was when Allen was playing alot better. He just doesn't look like he can be bothered to me and his natural talent is still going to win him matches against players who bomb like Maguire but Bingham should have enough about him to win here and is the value call.

5.5pts Over 1.5 Centuries (N.Robertson Vs M.Williams) 8/11 bet365
5pts S.Bingham to beat M.Allen 6/5 bet365

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Neil can score with confidence nowadays. He's not looking like the guy who played to mutch video games anymore. He's got a decent chance to win the tournament and Judd is an opponent he is very familiar with so he wont take anything for granted here. Judd beat Neil in this tournament last year 6-1 but now I think it could be the thunder from down under who scores the big win because the aussie has found a new gear this season. Judd may have beaten Neil last two times but this looks like a time for revenge for Neil so I think it could be worth being on the upset. 

4.5pts N.Robertson to beat J.Trump 2.35 Unibet

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Ah Bingham come on mate. 3-1 up and you lose 6-4.

Last of the Quarter-finals today/tonight. First we have Ronnie againt Higgins. Normally I would be looking at Ronnie on a handicap here, but I think Higgins may actually be some value today. He actually has quite a good recent h2h against Ronnie winning 2 of the last 3 including a 5-0 whitewash. Ronnie in my opinion just wants a couple of centuries in this tournament so that he can hit the big milestone later down the line in Sheffield.

In the second match, I agree with four-leaf that Robertson looks abit of value. He beat Williams easier than 6-4 really. Williams hit a big fluke otherwise that match was 6-3. Trump looked awesome against Jimmy Robertson but Jimmy has probably some of the worst form on tour right now. Lisowski handed the win to Trump. So he hasn't been properly tested. He will get that here. The first couple of frames are key.

4pts J.Higgins to beat R.O'Sullivan 9/4 paddypower
4pts N.Robertson to beat J.Trump 11/8 bet365

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7 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

The thunder from down under :drums

He's looking rather good isn't he. This tournament is perfect for him to test his form Pre-Sheffield. Even if he loses to Ronnie in the final, it will be good to see his current form against Ronnie. Already coming in to 11s and 12s the Worlds. If he wins this event, I imagine it will be down to 8 to 10s max.

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3 minutes ago, Fader said:

He's looking rather good isn't he. This tournament is perfect for him to test his form Pre-Sheffield. Even if he loses to Ronnie in the final, it will be good to see his current form against Ronnie. Already coming in to 11s and 12s the Worlds. If he wins this event, I imagine it will be down to 8 to 10s max.

I can imagine Ronnie will be up for a world of hurt against Neil in this final.

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He is on 997 centuries now. There is no way he will do the 1,000 in Preston. It will be an interesting final because he will get 1 or 2 against Allen you would imagine.

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Neither of these two are playing particularly well in my opinion. Allen has been helped by Maguire not performing atall and Bingham capitulating once he went 3-0 up. Ronnie should really have been beat by Higgins. The 1st frame was ridiculous where Higgins potted the final red loosely and potted the pink too, which handed Ronnie the frame. So really Higgins should have been 2-0 up and even the frame at 5-4 was shocking where Higgins lost his mind and just put the ball over the pocket.

all in all, i think it's worth going for Allen as the "highest break" market. I honesltly believe that Ronnie would want to not get his 1000 centuries in Preston. I also think his long game is pretty poor at the moment, so unless Allen really hands it on a plate then I think the price is too big both on Allen and Allen the highest break

4pts M.Allen to have the highest break 6/4 betfred

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1 hour ago, notanotherdonkey said:

Well done Ronnie on the tournament win and 1,000 centuries,was unplayable in the final and throughout the tournament.On his day there is not a better player.

no doubt about that. Let's just hope his day isn't as frequent from a betting perspective for Sheffield :) 

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • 2:50 Curragh Hathiq 7/4 Skybet
    • Fontwell 17.25   HARBOUR FORCE   11/2 Coral
    • 4.25 Curragh - Foxtrot Liv @ 40/1   ew   WillHill
    • 4.50 Fontwell BUSTER EDWARDS - 9/4 Sky
    • 4.25 Curragh: Fairyland 0.5pts e/w @ 12.00 with bet365. Thank you. 
    • Monaco GP So Hamilton pulls a rabbit out of the hat and grabs pole for yet another Mercedes front row lockout. Lewis is an unbackable 1/3 shot to lead all of the way and this 78 lap traffic jam. I feel for Bottas as he was going quickest for most of the session and now finds himself stuck behind the best driver at Monaco in the race. He's a 4/1 shot to get past Hamilton so basically your betting 4/1 for Hamilton to retire?? Max Verstappen is now a 6/1 shot but is as short as 4/11 to finish on the podium so maybe the value has swung towards Vettel in this market who is a tempting 6/5 shot. H surely cant have another bad day like today, can he?? I'm struggling to see how Pierre Gasly is 4/7 to finish in the top 6 when Riccardo is 11/8, Gasly has a 3 place grid penalty to starts 8th while the Aussie starts 6th?? Leclerc who starts 16th is 13/8, that will be worth seeing if he finishes 6th!!! Lance Stroll struggles here and his car is pretty slow so backing him at 2/1 not to finish is worth a small bet to keep me interested in what could be a dull race. Bets Verstappen 7/2 Under 15.5 5/6 Vettel Top 3 6/5 Ricciardo Top 6 11/8 Stroll DNF 2/1  
    • Well done Steve, your first win in the Cup since May 2017 Unlucky Ken mate.      
    • Albert Ramos to beat Laslo Djere at 2.15 with betsson It's all about probability in this one and I rate the probability of this happening higher than the current odds of 2.15. Albert has been in the quarterfinal of Roland Garros before and knows how to play in grand slam events while Laslo is 1-6 in GS maindraw matches. I expect Laslo to run into some major difficulties against Albert. They met once before and Albert won 2-1 back in 2017 in Marrakech. Peter Gojowczyk to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 4.50 with Unibet Peter has beaten J-W before and most importantly on indoor hard and even in a 5 set Davis cup thriller by 8-6 in the decider. I think Peter could have enough to win this again even though his form isn't the best but neither is J-Ws form and I think clay suits Peter a little bit better and he's got the matchup advantage and knows how to find break opportunities in the J-W serve. Better chances of an upset than the odds suggest at least. Sveta Kuznetsova to beat (-1.5 sets) Kristina Kucova at 2.04 with Unibet Sveta could not have asked for a more favorable first round opponent. Kristina hates clay and she's never won a set in Roland Garros maindraw and her last two visits have been first round straight sets losses to Shuai Zhang 6-0 7-5 and Sam Stosur 7-5 6-0. She's done well to reach the maindraw from qualification but her opponents weren't really hard at all but she still had problems in last match against Katie Swan but won in a decider. Sveta should have many opportunities to break and could win in straight sets. Kateryna Kozlova to beat Bernarda Pera at 2.35 with Unibet Kateryna most famously knocked out reigning champion Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets last season in Roland Garros first round and later lost in second round. Bernarda Pera also won her first round match in Roland Garros last season and she beat Elena Vesnina but I don't rate that performance at all and she later also lost in second round. Anyway I don't see what makes Kateryna the underdog in this one. Kateryna has a higher ranking now (66), close to her career high 62 and I rate beating Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets higher than Bernarda beating a Elena Vesnina with retirement in her sights. Should be more  even odds here I think.  Roger Federer to beat (-6.5) Lorenzo Sonego at 1.97 with betsson I think I have to rate Rogers chances pretty high here. I don't think Lorenzo will get many looks into Rogers serve but Roger should find ways to find breakpoint opportunities on the Lorenzo serve. It might take some time but once Roger gets a break it could be a rout. This could even be covered in 4 sets.
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