Torque

It's definitely worth backing Sherrock to win one of these. If anyone thought the World's was a flash in the pan, she's proved since then that it definitely wasn't - although she didn't manage to get her tour card which was a bit surprising.
Despite that setback, she's beaten some of the best players in the world and very nearly beat Phil Taylor last night when she had the darts to do so. She scores well, she doubles well and she has a handy knack of taking out big checkouts which ramps up the pressure on all her opponents - it even seemed to get to Taylor last night when he lost a leg he was something like 200 ahead in.
The improvement in her game in the last few years has been unbelievable. I can remember watching her in the Women's World's a few years ago, even before her health problems, and she wasn't even the best player in that. She deserves a lot of credit for getting to the level she's now at.

Well, I can't force anyone into anything obviously, but all thoughts are generally welcome and the more, the better!

I see what you mean now. Ironically I had planned on trying to be more active on the thread this season! In the past I haven't always had the time to write up properly my thoughts about matches and also what bets I might be taking.
As I think I've mentioned before, I've always been conscious that people might follow what I tip and if that is the case then I'm only going to be happy with that if I'm completely happy that I've given each selection enough time and attention. That's probably the reason why in recent seasons I've posted less in the way of tips and more in the way of general thoughts about players, matches and tournaments - but then of course this is a tipping thread so I've tried not to clog up the threads with too many posts that don't include tips.

34 result: BATE won 2-0. Won £250
Profit to date £2211.66
BATE came good at last. 

Must come good sometime Torque. They are usually the class team in Belarus and hopefully will come good today.

Yeah, whole new list of players for next week. Only Nijman remains of the bunch, I believe. I'll update the Modus thread with the new lineup etc

I had 8/1 on Nijman winning all 5 yesterday and he won 4/5 which is annoying. I think it's more likely better to win from in the early days of the group. On the whole I don't think there is alot of value in it. Especially not from a match perspective. Much more value is the PDC At Home where everybody is priced up like they would be if they were in a full studio. We've seen already it's not all the same when they're at home.

Wish I'd tailed you the other night though when you got a full house across both events you've been covering. Nearly a 1000 to 1 winner if you'd rolled them all up!

Wahey! glad to hear it. 

Tailed you on the Aspinall bet. Cheers 

Tonight shows that some people are either not prepared for this event or they are just not practising. Joyce was poor tonight, but Stevenson was just awful. The only good side to it was thanks to those awful performances, that's a 25/1 hit on Aspinall 
PDC Darts at home tips +37.5pts

Corona Tennis - sounds like a new tournament on the schedule, a bit like powerhorse tennis from a few years back

We got that, Roger ?.

Didn't notice that one but yeah another example of price moves that you just wouldn't normally see.

I'm not surprised. Some of the price movements before the games started were very interesting. Chinandega steamed all the way to odds-on but still lost, and in-play Diriangen were 5 to 1 on when 1-0 down and came back to win.

Agree about U2.5. If Managua couldn't score against Real (who have a similar profile to Las Sabanas) in their last away fixture then a repeat here must be a possibility. Again 0-0 looks tempting. I might try a 0-0 double.

Can definitely see a draw here. 2 out of the last 5 corresponding fixtures between these two has ended 0-0 and another 0-0 wouldn't be a surprise. I can't overstate just how bad Jalapa's pitch is - I've seen sunday league pitches that are better and I think that's the reason they haven't had a single home match go over 3.5 goals in 16 matches. Of those 16 matches only 3 cleared the 2.5 line so this looks very much like a game to take the unders in. I don't fancy BTTS at all. BTTS No would be my choice.

TBF that's the only game I've watched. Long-term stats are a better guide of what might happen in any match, but as I said Jalapa were so poor. It's not as though they were up against an Esteli for example either - Chinandega aren't a good side. Plus they were at home as well, so as bad as the pitch was they should have been able to put up a better performance than they did.

On the back of what I watched the other night I couldn't be backing Jalapa to beat anyone. They created nothing worth talking about against Chinandega. I'd much prefer to back the draw in this one plus a 0-0 correct score punt. Maybe BTTS No as well. BOL though 

I would say, based on my own experience that is extremely complicated to calculate statistically  how will be affected a team if one/two players are missing
What I tried a few years ago it was to record all minutes played by each player, the results...etc. Then to compare what happened when the player was on the field with the games they were not.
Soon, I realised this is not enough anyway. I find out that if a player is missing, there is extremely important (again) to see combinations of players. I found out that some players play much better and the team had better results if other 2-3 players were present together...etc. Finally, I gave up because there would have been too many combinations and the results not sure.
 
On the other hand, what I would try is to back the team where very important players are missing at the right time.
Why? You talked about value. Let-s think that at one moment the odds are stable. What happens right after the information that 2 important players will not play? For sure many many will try to back the opponent team as soon as possible and they move the odds far more then really is needed. Is like an overreaction given by the first impulse.
Of course, in a short time, the odds will be stabilized again but we need to catch the better odds to back the team with the missing players.  In my opinion, there are greater chances to be value.
It is a very common situation when after a team remains without 1 key player (red card during the game or before the game..etc ) , the manager tells to remaining players that need to give more on the field to compensate the missing player.  Almost every time, especially top teams,  play better than before.   This is like a joke but I think is not far from reality

I'm not sure what the explanation was, but having watched the game I can only imagine anyone betting on Jalapa to win wasn't watching it. They had no chances to score that I saw and so an equaliser was unlikely, much less a winner. For some reason though, all the money was coming in for them. It was like a run on a bank but instead of people rushing to withdraw money people or bots were rushing to back the home side. It's not as though lack of liquidity would explain such a change in price - with no other football going on there was hundreds of thousands in the market which should have protected against manipulation. I've seen extreme price moves before an event starts, but I've never seen anything like that during a match especially as there was no reason to back them to win - they were behind, they weren't playing well and the opposition hadn't been reduced in numbers.

I'd give you a thumbs up if I could 

I'd give you a thumbs up if I could 

Thumbs up maybe @Sir Puntalot

Here are the fixtures for this weekend's matches in the Liga Primera de Nicaragua. Let's hear what thoughts you guys have got for these latest games scheduled. Managua, Real Esteli, and Diriangen have now sealed their places in the play-off quarter-finals at least. It's also confirmed that both Deportivo Las Sabanas and Deportivo Ocotal are now unable to qualify for the play-off semi-finals. Something to consider when taking into account the mentality of the teams heading into these games.