harry_rag

Italy Women v China Women:
6 points on Giacinti to score at 10/1
2 points on her to score 1st at 28/1 and 1 on her to score 2 or more at 75/1 (All with Fred)
Relating this back to the above waffle, comes on to my radar at anything over 4/1 so I think she's slipped under Fred's at those prices.

11.7% return is impressive over 100 bets but what is not clear to me, not read all the posts so apologies if you have already explained, is which factors do you use to decide odds are good value?

I spent half the tournament thinking this was a proper mugs bet until I realised he was shown a "Gulbadin" on the scorecards when I was looking for Naib! 
It's actually in reasonable shape after 7 innings as he's on 9 with the others on 7, 6, 5 and 4. Fingers crossed he can stay in front over the remaining couple of games.

I spent half the tournament thinking this was a proper mugs bet until I realised he was shown a "Gulbadin" on the scorecards when I was looking for Naib! 
It's actually in reasonable shape after 7 innings as he's on 9 with the others on 7, 6, 5 and 4. Fingers crossed he can stay in front over the remaining couple of games.

Just spent a spare few minutes browsing this forum topic and I find a number of Newbie posts who were full of optimism at the beginning with tales of profits over the years and then after a few losses they just disappear. I do not intend to join this group as losses are simply a spur to improve.
In anycase with a tweak of a few different variables you should be able to turn a past loss into a past profit and once again hope is eternal and off you can go again believing these new variables will create a profit in the future rather than in the past.
Just to bore the world here are a few more variables that can be adjusted on the spreadsheet to make everyone's predictions their very own take on the future. It really is worth a look and maybe take a peek at the few predictions I am posting for the China Super League on that Topic.
Risk Percentage represents the level of difference between the predicted odds and the bookmakers odds before a result is eligible for prediction. The higher this factor the fewer but more likely predictions are made.
Start is the number of rounds that must be played in a season before predictions are made. This allows time for the predictions to adjust for changes in teams strength from one season to the next.
End is the number of rounds at the end of the season where predictions are not made. This disallows those games which may be affected by end of season anomalies.
Ex From and Ex To allows an exclusion period for a holiday period such as Christmas and New Year.
Longshot Home is the lowest forecast likelihood of a home win before excluding a prediction as a longshot.
Enter 0% to allow all predictions.
Longshot Away is the lowest forecast likelihood of an away win before excluding a prediction as a longshot.
Enter 0% to allow all predictions.
Introduced in season 2017-18 is a graphic display of OddsPredictor's performance compared to a target.
This Target can be set on the Chart tab.
 

I wouldn't wait a fortnight for Jessica Alba never mind a new bookmaker.  

Well done. Keeping an eye on things and tracking my antepost bets but not been betting on the individual games.

Woo going well!!

yep looks bad for me. what ive learned is dont bet on any market you dont know anything about.
Thanks for the help.

Couldn't agree with you more! Being told to wait to spend money with any company is completely irritating. Whether that makes us both Victor Meldrew types I don't know! 
I'm not sure if it will become my goto betting app yet. But give it a try. They have a nice price comparison so I can toggle between Bet365 and them for the best price. I doubt that's their intention!
I waited to go through the queue which took a few weeks. But my mate found a post on facebook about the skip the queue email and got in within a day. It is the same email address as on the bottom of their customer emails so it is a legitimate address. Be interested to know how you get on? 
Best of luck!

Got through the queue. Quite like the interface and is a bit different to SKYBET, Bet365 etc.. Although it's still in beta and they seem to be making changes and adding features. Only made a few small bets so no other feedback to report.
But I did find out that after you join the queue if you just email: [email protected] with SKIP THE QUEUE in the subject line that you can avoid the whole waiting to get access thing. Hopefully someone might find that useful!

Just a Tyrer try from yesterday's 4 bets so an 18 point loss.
12 winners from 32 bets (37.5%)
544 points staked, 666.9 points returned
+122.9 points
ROI 22.59%

That's how the season finished. Overall record now looks like this (going back to the 2013/14 season)
213 bets showing a level stakes profit of 52.21 points with an ROI of 24.51%. This is only the third season I've recorded to advised stakes, which show 104 bets, 27.17 points profit and ROI of 29.85%.
The level stakes ROI has been (earliest to latest) 27.03%, 25.91%, 13.04%, 21.84%, 41.06% and 19.75%.
See you in May, all being well!

That's how the season finished. Overall record now looks like this (going back to the 2013/14 season)
213 bets showing a level stakes profit of 52.21 points with an ROI of 24.51%. This is only the third season I've recorded to advised stakes, which show 104 bets, 27.17 points profit and ROI of 29.85%.
The level stakes ROI has been (earliest to latest) 27.03%, 25.91%, 13.04%, 21.84%, 41.06% and 19.75%.
See you in May, all being well!

Just musings on the Champions League final this week, no selection, so Kev has eased his way into a deserved summer holiday!
Will wrap this thread up soon with an update of the long-term figures. No doubt be back again next season.

Nearly landed both of those with just 2 matches played but at least the saver part is already in. On reflection, 2/1 was clearly a great price while it lasted given that the <120 line ended up being offered at between 8/11 and 6/5 by 4 different firms.

Kelly obliges.
7 winners from 18 bets (38.89%)
293 points staked, 402.4 points returned
+109.4 points
ROI 37.34%

Be gentle with me but here's a few more specials I've backed! 
You might think I've gone a bit OTT here but I've been through hundreds of these bets and rejected most as rank bad value. Where relevant, I've compared the spread expectations to the line/price I've taken and had a look at the player stats. I've ranked the bets as A, B or C bets based on my assessment of the value to "muggyness" ratio having looked at them again after a night's sleep.
A Bets (confident the price is value)
Maxwell and Finch to hit 30+ sixes (combined total) at 7/2 with Lads - stats say this may be a stretch but the spreads have them in for 30 so, at such a big price to hit that line, it seems a solid enough bet.
Woakes and Archer to take 30+ wickets (combined total) at 9/4 with Lads - spreads similar here, 30 being pretty much their expected haul but stats seem more encouraging so happy that this is a similarly strong bet despite the shorter price.
B Bets (reasonably happy with these but not quite as confident)
Root to score 500+ runs at 5/4 with Lads - Spreads pitch him at around 525 while elsewhere he's 10/11 to go either under or over 500.5 (down from a higher line previously). Stats suggest none of these prices or lines are way off but I think I'm getting odds against about a coin toss at worst. Just realised I've already posted this bet but might as well leave it here having typed that rationale out!
De Kock to take 10+ catches at 6/4 with Lads - No spreads as such for this but seems to be the minimum they have him in for when you look at SA wicket keeper performance being pitched around the 600 mark (1 point per run, 10 per catch and 25 per stumping). Again, much closer to a coin toss for me.
Starc and Cummins to take 30+ wickets (combined total) at 6/5 with Lads - Spreads have them in for 35 so I think the price should be shorter or the line should be higher. Not a mouthwatering price for a tournament long bet but it was good enough to tempt me in.
Buttler and Stokes to hit 30+ sixes (combined total) at 3/1 with Lads - Spreads put them in for around 25 so this bet is more likely to lose than win but the price still seems a bit generous.
C Bet (mug/fun punt)
Gayle to hit a 6 in every group game at 20/1 with PP - small stakes, one of those bets that caught my eye and I'd rather be on it and lose than risk the regret of noticing it but choosing not to back it!
Feel free to let me know if any of those strike you as diamonds or dogs!
 

Added these, will do for my extra interest and all at prices which look decent to me.
Kolasinac assist at 6/1 with 888
>5.5 cards at 7/4 with 888
>5 AH cards at 1.95 with 365
Hazard to score in both halves at 35/1 with 888

Welcome to the forum, not sure I'll be taking staking advice from you any time soon though! 
Whimsy aside, I'm inclined to agree that the prices flatter Chelsea and under rate Arsenal. Arsenal out as far as 13/5 now. I've backed them with Hills whose "Golden Goal" offer applies. You will be paid as a winner (£50 max) if they score first but don't go on to win.
Also followed the RP tip on Maitland-Niles to be shown a card. Advised at 5/1 but now 9/2 best with 365/Hills/VC/Betway. I also bought his card minutes at 11 with SPIN (but up to 13 now).
Going to have a look if anything else appeals now.

Have to agree with everyone, Arsenal have to backed at the odds available. Not full bank though, that's crazy talk, 1 unit will do  Also had a wee punt on Azpilicueta to be carded at 4.50. 

Welcome to the forum, not sure I'll be taking staking advice from you any time soon though! 
Whimsy aside, I'm inclined to agree that the prices flatter Chelsea and under rate Arsenal. Arsenal out as far as 13/5 now. I've backed them with Hills whose "Golden Goal" offer applies. You will be paid as a winner (£50 max) if they score first but don't go on to win.
Also followed the RP tip on Maitland-Niles to be shown a card. Advised at 5/1 but now 9/2 best with 365/Hills/VC/Betway. I also bought his card minutes at 11 with SPIN (but up to 13 now).
Going to have a look if anything else appeals now.

3.35 on Arsenal is surely a gift from the gods.  Incredible price - almost full-bank territory.
Excellent forum, by the way.

As you subsequently said; in the paper tomorrow but it's available to read on the website now.

Be gentle with me but here's a few more specials I've backed! 
You might think I've gone a bit OTT here but I've been through hundreds of these bets and rejected most as rank bad value. Where relevant, I've compared the spread expectations to the line/price I've taken and had a look at the player stats. I've ranked the bets as A, B or C bets based on my assessment of the value to "muggyness" ratio having looked at them again after a night's sleep.
A Bets (confident the price is value)
Maxwell and Finch to hit 30+ sixes (combined total) at 7/2 with Lads - stats say this may be a stretch but the spreads have them in for 30 so, at such a big price to hit that line, it seems a solid enough bet.
Woakes and Archer to take 30+ wickets (combined total) at 9/4 with Lads - spreads similar here, 30 being pretty much their expected haul but stats seem more encouraging so happy that this is a similarly strong bet despite the shorter price.
B Bets (reasonably happy with these but not quite as confident)
Root to score 500+ runs at 5/4 with Lads - Spreads pitch him at around 525 while elsewhere he's 10/11 to go either under or over 500.5 (down from a higher line previously). Stats suggest none of these prices or lines are way off but I think I'm getting odds against about a coin toss at worst. Just realised I've already posted this bet but might as well leave it here having typed that rationale out!
De Kock to take 10+ catches at 6/4 with Lads - No spreads as such for this but seems to be the minimum they have him in for when you look at SA wicket keeper performance being pitched around the 600 mark (1 point per run, 10 per catch and 25 per stumping). Again, much closer to a coin toss for me.
Starc and Cummins to take 30+ wickets (combined total) at 6/5 with Lads - Spreads have them in for 35 so I think the price should be shorter or the line should be higher. Not a mouthwatering price for a tournament long bet but it was good enough to tempt me in.
Buttler and Stokes to hit 30+ sixes (combined total) at 3/1 with Lads - Spreads put them in for around 25 so this bet is more likely to lose than win but the price still seems a bit generous.
C Bet (mug/fun punt)
Gayle to hit a 6 in every group game at 20/1 with PP - small stakes, one of those bets that caught my eye and I'd rather be on it and lose than risk the regret of noticing it but choosing not to back it!
Feel free to let me know if any of those strike you as diamonds or dogs!