harry_rag

WEEK #1
Written Wednesday September 4th, 2019 at 2 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs (rated 3 stars)
Lots of people are in the Chiefs bandwagon. If you look at their roster, they are indeed very good. Patrick Mahomes is super exciting to watch. And so are their speedy receivers, namely Tyreek Hill. I’m also looking forward to seeing their new toy, rookie Mecole Hardman. I’ve heard good reports from camp about him.
Nobody is underestimating Kansas City. Everybody expects them to be great. But I believe many people are underestimating Jacksonville. The general public remembers their dreadful 2018 season where they finished 5-11. But don’t forget they went 10-6 the year before, thanks to a suffocating defense. They still have many players from that edition in their roster.
The QB situation has obviously improved with the arrival of Nick Foles, a very smart guy. Running back Leonard Fournette is also back after missing half the season, and battling through injuries when he was on the field. He says he is “100 percent better.”
Jacksonville will also be looking to avenge a 30-14 loss in Kansas City last season.
I subscribed to the weekly newsletter sent by the Sports Interaction sportsbook. In this week’s letter that I just received, they mention getting 90% of the action on the Chiefs versus just 10% on the Jags. As a contrarian, I love it!
LEAN: Detroit Lions -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals
The Kyler Murray era is about to begin in Arizona! The fans should be excited, but there might be some growing pains, especially early in the season. Give him some time to adjust to the NFL speed. On the other side, you’ve got an experience signal caller with Matthew Stafford, who is entering his 11th season in the league.
The betting public tends to focus too much on each team’s offensive weapons; they don’t take the defense and the offensive line into account enough, in my humble opinion. That being said, footballguys.com is a great website that has a lot of valuable information on the NFL. I trust them a lot, as I have used them many times when doing fantasy football. They are ranking Arizona’s defense 26th in the league, while their offensive line gets the 30th rank. Ouch.
Not only do the Cards have a new QB, but they also have a rookie head coach, Kliff Kingsbury. He will also need time to feel more comfortable with his new duties.
Finally, based on odds for the number of regular season wins, the Lions are expected to get about 6.5 victories this year compared to 5.0 for the Cards. And that’s despite Detroit playing in a tougher division.
Best of luck with your plays, fellows!
Professor MJ

Osasuna win the corner count 3-2 so back in the black.
4 winners from 5 bets, 2.8 points up with an ROI of 56% to advised and level stakes.

as i said you havent understand it fully
but thank for the reply

one time maybe yes maybe no. long term no, if you haven't looked at much more data and games.. don't know where to start explaining. maybe try to read more about odds and what probabilities they imply and how you get a higher hit rate than that probability implied...

does not make ANY sense, please read more about martingale and how it will bust you in a foreseeable future. just friendly advice - do this and you will go bust soon. 

What could possibly go wrong! 
I'd say you'd do better just staking 5 units on every bet (45 divided by 9). There can be reasons to stake 9 times as much on one bet as you would on another but where they randomly fall in a sequence is not one of them.

we pick 2 strong winning teams and we bet both of them to win and conced a goal
we look for odds 3,1+ in each team and we bet 1 unit and we expect to win 10 units back
if we lose we bet 2 units and we expect 20 back
etc
we keep this up until 9 units,when the total bet would be 45 units and if the 9 units bet win will get 90 units back minus the 45 we hae spent
45 units profit
 
 
never tried this before but i think i ll give it a try soon

Oldham win the game but lose the corner count 7-2 so our first loss of the season.
3 winners from 4 bets, 1.8 points up with an ROI of 45% to advised and level stakes.

For this week we have Oldham +2 Asian handicap corners v Cambridge, 1pt at 1.825 with 365.

1-0 for the bookies on that one! 

See the opening post; "No need to register for the competition, your first selection will count as your entry." so just enter before the deadline.

Another winner this week (5-4 on corners according to the BBC match report).
3 winners from 3 bets, 2.8 points up with an ROI of 93.33% to advised and level stakes.

For this week, Peterborough +1 Asian handicap corners v Ipswich, 1pt at 1.85 with 365.

Reminds me of a competition with SPIN several years ago for the World Cup (2002 to be precise). You had to pick 6 or 8 teams and scored points based on how they did, goals, cards, progress etc. The winner's prize was linked to so many units of the World Cup winner's currency. I was in contention for much of the competition and ultimately finished 3rd out of thousands of entrants.
My prize was essentially the £ equivalent of 1,000 Turkish Lira! 
Cue an apologetic call from SPIN and the offer of a goody bag of branded merch as some reward for my efforts.

Cheers, I do currently try & keep the balances at a sensible level. I also record all my bets in a spreadsheet & the month end balances for each firm I use. All in all, it should be easy enough for the executors to trace, come the time. Assuming that I haven’t had an epiphany by then & kicked this gambling lark in the head!

Cheers, I do currently try & keep the balances at a sensible level. I also record all my bets in a spreadsheet & the month end balances for each firm I use. All in all, it should be easy enough for the executors to trace, come the time. Assuming that I haven’t had an epiphany by then & kicked this gambling lark in the head!

you could start withdrawing all your funds after each win and keep an up to date spreadsheet of all bets which your executors would need to be aware of @harry_rag
 

Nice and simple then! 
I'd stick to what I said then, either make your initial stake 1% of bank or, if you want to wait till you feel confident, take the 1% of (Bank - 100) once you've doubled your bank.
Good luck, whatever you choose to do.

Crawley win the game 2-0 and, more importantly for us, the corner count by a whopping 10-3.
(I won't often be updating this promptly but I was keeping an eye on the bet via 365's live stats.)
0 from 2 and +1.95 points to level and advised stakes. ROI (for what it's worth at this stage) 97.5%.

There's no single right answer to this and it's even harder to give appropriate advice with so little detail. Even if we knew average odds, how long you've been doing it for, how many bets, strike rate and what the bank stands at now it would give us a bit more to go on.
You could just bet 1% of bank for every bet rather than a flat 1 point. You could, as suggested, increase to 2 points when the bank doubles or a more cautious 1.5 points if you prefer. It's a bit like investing where one is warned against trying to time the market. You could have a fantastic run right up to the point where you double your bank but only have been betting the original 1 point stake and then increase your stake just in time for a bad run of results.
For that reason I'd suggest just going with 1% of bank as the stake. If you're doing several bets a day you could reset the stake at the end of each day, i.e. all bets on any one day will be to the same stake. If you don't want to increase stakes right away you could stick with 1 point until the bank hits, say, 200 points then go with 1% of (Bank -100) as your stake (so 1.5% when bank is 250 points etc.)
A bit waffly but hopefully makes sense!

This week we have Crawley +0 Asian handicap corners v Salford, 1pt at 2.05 with 365.

Might as well collate my antepost "portfolio" into a single post so I can look for congratulations or commiserations come the end of the season! I don't usually have this many bets but seem to have had a bit more time to have a look round this season.
10 points Jota (Wolves) >14 Premier League goals at 8/1 with Hills 
1.5 points Kane (Spurs) to score a goal from the halfway line or further in any EPL game at 80/1 with Skybet
10.5 points Milivojevic (Palace) to score 10+ Premier League goals at 7/2 with PP/Skybet
1 point Milivojevic to score 15+ Premier League goals at 100/1 with Skybet
Buy McBurnie (Sheffield U) Premier League goals for 15 points at 6 with SX
Sell total Premier League season penalties awarded for 5 points at 132 with SX

I have had a couple of goes at forecasting the top 4 in exact order.
Man city to beat liverpool is the first part of the bet - i don't think liverpool will be as close this year but they should be better than the rest.
When it comes to 3rd and 4th i have discounted man utd and chelsea as both have rookie managers and also chelsea have lost their best player and are stymied in their recruitment. I am not convinced by solskjaer and feel this will be a transitional year again.
Arsenal have recruited well with pepe, tierney and luiz. There are still question marks in central defence though. 
bets: man city, liverpool, tottenham, arsenal 18/1 skybet 3 points
         man city, liverpool, arsenal, tottenham 25/1 skybet 2 points

See the opening post; "No need to register for the competition, your first selection will count as your entry." so just enter before the deadline.

Off to a winning start so 1 from 1 and +0.9 points so far.
5-3 or 6-3 depending on which site you believe but either will do!