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Xtc12

When should I increase my stake.

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Hi guys came across a thread in Glory Hunters and came up with my own idea to try something similar with the horses. It has turned out ok and the profit is improving all the time.

Just wondering .. say my bank was originally  £100.

I bet level stakes (say £1) and my profit is rising nicely. When should I increase my stake to £2.

THOUGHTS PLEASE.

Will trial this for another couple of months before posting. 

 

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I think it is a very important topic.

Until one of the experienced guys will help us with the answer I will say my opinion.

 

I think that one of the mistake the player does is to increase the stake too early.  We have to understand that betting is a game of probabilities and the probability to lose all bets for the rest of our life is not 0. It is extremely small but is not 0. Of course this is an extreme example..

The most logical answer is to increase to 2 units when your bank is 200, in order to keep 1% from bank. Probably this would say most of the players.

The second logical answer would be to never increase the stake,  and to save every 100 you get. Probably this would say just a few. :)

 

I prefer a combination: I would keep the stake 1 until I have 300, then save 100 and increase the stake to 2. 

Now I have 200 and stake 2, still 1% but have 100 saved (my real pofit). A few comments here: Another mistake can be done is to think that the balance you see on your bookie, under your account are yours. No, the money are yours only when save them to your bank account.

 

Will keep it until I have 400, then save 100 and increase to 3...

And so on  

 

As I said, this is what I think in this Monday early morning, the worst hours for my brain in the entire week

Edited by giraldi

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There's no single right answer to this and it's even harder to give appropriate advice with so little detail. Even if we knew average odds, how long you've been doing it for, how many bets, strike rate and what the bank stands at now it would give us a bit more to go on.

You could just bet 1% of bank for every bet rather than a flat 1 point. You could, as suggested, increase to 2 points when the bank doubles or a more cautious 1.5 points if you prefer. It's a bit like investing where one is warned against trying to time the market. You could have a fantastic run right up to the point where you double your bank but only have been betting the original 1 point stake and then increase your stake just in time for a bad run of results.

For that reason I'd suggest just going with 1% of bank as the stake. If you're doing several bets a day you could reset the stake at the end of each day, i.e. all bets on any one day will be to the same stake. If you don't want to increase stakes right away you could stick with 1 point until the bank hits, say, 200 points then go with 1% of (Bank -100) as your stake (so 1.5% when bank is 250 points etc.)

A bit waffly but hopefully makes sense!

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Thanks for the replies. Just to give you an idea what I am doing. I had seen one of the threads where you turn 10 to 1000 in 10 bets or so.

I was watching the racing one day and a thought came to my mind. Turn 1 to 24. So my plan goes like this : when I go through the racing every night and pick my fancied horses ( not a selection in every race) I look at the early prices. For today I had 9 fancies. These 9 horses had to meet a certain criteria or else they are neglected which left me with 5 horses. I now get rid of any of the 5 which are odds on. I was left with 3. 

Now from these 3 I pick the horse which is closest to 3/1 (cannot be higher). I put 1 unit on this horse, where I can get (bog). If it loses I do the same tomorrow. If it wins I put the winnings on my fancy tomorrow (the horse will meet the above criteria) but the odds will be 2/1 or closest to it, but not above it, again (bog). 

If the 2nd horse loses I start again if it wins the winnings go on the final leg of the treble where the odds will be Evens. 

I get guaranteed best odds on all legs of my treble. Seems to be doing well at the moment but cannot give you any stats at the moment as my computer is very sick and is at the doctors. 

Today's selection which is the 2nd leg ( Grandfather Tom yesterday ) is B Fifty two @ 6/4. 

The last leg may have to be odds on as it cannot be above evens.

Edited by Xtc12
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1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

Thanks for the replies. Just to give you an idea what I am doing. I had seen one of the threads where you turn 10 to 1000 in 10 bets or so.

I was watching the racing one day and a thought came to my mind. Turn 1 to 24. So my plan goes like this : when I go through the racing every night and pick my fancied horses ( not a selection in every race) I look at the early prices. For today I had 9 fancies. These 9 horses had to meet a certain criteria or else they are neglected which left me with 5 horses. I now get rid of any of the 5 which are odds on. I was left with 3. 

Now from these 3 I pick the horse which is closest to 3/1 (cannot be higher). I put 1 unit on this horse, where I can get (bog). If it loses I do the same tomorrow. If it wins I put the winnings on my fancy tomorrow (the horse will meet the above criteria) but the odds will be 2/1 or closest to it, but not above it, again (bog). 

If the 2nd horse loses I start again if it wins the winnings go on the final leg of the treble where the odds will be Evens. 

I get guaranteed best odds on all legs of my treble. Seems to be doing well at the moment but cannot give you any stats at the moment as my computer is very sick and is at the doctors. 

Today's selection which is the 2nd leg ( Grandfather Tom yesterday ) is B Fifty two @ 6/4. 

The last leg may have to be odds on as it cannot be above evens.

The criteria please? "

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Nice and simple then! ;)

I'd stick to what I said then, either make your initial stake 1% of bank or, if you want to wait till you feel confident, take the 1% of (Bank - 100) once you've doubled your bank.

Good luck, whatever you choose to do.

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Wow!  what a question and probably the most relevant one around for people who bet real money (e.g. me).

WARNING!   A lot of words.  Read slowly, stop, think of comments, save the comments, read on.  Critique the post in here so that I have a chance to to take my time digesting the comments and then confirm my agreement to the comments.  😁  Also to allow other PL members to see the input.

History first:  I have had at least one betting account since 2001.  My accounts (plural now), IN TOTAL, are up.  One is significantly up, 1 is up, 2 are down.  By the end of this week I will have "only" 3 accounts, cashing out 100% on the 1 is up account because I am not happy with them.  Important to reflect that the significantly up account gives out rewards for certain amount of money placed regularly and that has contributed to my profit as well as contributed to losses as I try to make the money deadline and place at times frivilous bets.  My profits (and losses) are not not solely from horse racing.  I will guess at 98%+ from horse racing.  But have gained money with one-offs in other sports.

Admin: I am stating this now.  For me, it is as important as doing the research for betting and determining what stake plan.  I will not remember correctly what my betting habits are if I do not record it.  The record proves the facts; the accounts go up and they go down, there is no straight line graph, there will peaks and troughs, some troughs are dangerously low. I have to remember what money I placed on the accounts and when and what money I withdrew.  The mind, my mind, will play tricks and I will remember the good times only when I am having a good day, and the bad times only on the reverse.

Phew!  At last staking plan.  My first premise was what can I afford to spend so that I am having at least some fun, intensity, nervousness, excitement ("FINE") AND accept I might lose it all.  My staking plan includes time off.  What?!  I will not bet if there is nothing "worthwhile" to bet on, or I am feeling distant about the outcome, or I am feeling euphoric or if I am not feeling good about myself (provided that I am comfortable about reaching the one account money bet target).  My records indicate where I have had success and surprising failures.

Second, I read dozens of articles on how much to bet.  There are so many theories but the one that keeps striking me is to bet only what I can afford AND I will would not throw a tantrum (or become criminal) if I did.  Bet only enough such that I can derive some of that "FINE"energy whatever the outcome.  Sure I can get moments of frustration when "my" horse comes in second or whatever. C'est la vie!  The stake.  For me it was 1% to 2%, PER BET, depending on my confidence levels of at least some return. e.g. I might more if I did not foresee more than a couple of dangers in the race AND the odds were high AND I was given scope to net a nice return even if the horse placed if`I went EW.  That was it and subject to one other criteria that is it.  The other criteria is the number of bets I am doing in a day.  The percentage bet, PER BET, will decrease if I have a lot of bets to place in a short period. You? - I can only suggest.  Me? I revise the WHAT on which I base my percentage, up or down, as I go through levels.  So as a beginner I bet 1% of my first deposit.  Got successful, account went to depost plus 25%.  That deposit plus 25% became the amount on which I based my 1%.

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Only my opinion but I think a lot of people lose long term because they stake too much of their bank all the time. This is assuming that they're keeping records of course. A £100.00 start bank and betting £10 is a big hit to take if it loses. Obviously a £1 bet that loses wont hurt as much. Bet what you're happy to lose. I think most of it is mind games and about keeping a relaxed state of mind.

Hope that makes sense. Good luck.

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On 8/18/2019 at 7:57 PM, freddie01 said:

Only my opinion but I think a lot of people lose long term because they stake too much of their bank all the time. This is assuming that they're keeping records of course. A £100.00 start bank and betting £10 is a big hit to take if it loses. Obviously a £1 bet that loses wont hurt as much. Bet what you're happy to lose. I think most of it is mind games and about keeping a relaxed state of mind.

Hope that makes sense. Good luck.

I would second that but with a twist - staking makes people to bust quickly whereas with a sensible staking plan (%!!) that would have taken much longer 🤭👍

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I've been away from here for quite a while since stopping working on the rdata site but I've still been following a few things.  I have a system that has, so far, produced 264 selections (horse racing).  It has a strike rate of just under 46% with an average win SP of 1.77 (1.89 on Betfair).  Longest losing run is 9 and the longest winning run is 6.  Calculated potential longest losing run is 13 per 1000 bets based on the strike rate.  I've played with many staking plans and, as I know the system makes good profit to level stakes, I'd like to know which plan would work best in this situation in the long run.

I have the following (all from a starting bank of £1000):

Level stakes (£10)
26.84% ROI - Current Profit £708 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £2640
32.23% ROI - Current Profit £850 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £2640

Multiplier on loss (x1.2 previous stake)
25.21% ROI - Current Profit £858 - Total Staked £3405

Percentage bank (1% of bank always)
25.79% ROI - Current Profit £969 - Total Staked £3758

Square root (base stake of £10 plus the square root of the current bank minus start bank)
23.79% ROI - Current Profit £3052 - Total Staked £12831

1-3-2-6 Staking (based on a 1% stake)
27.36% ROI - Current Profit £2803 - Total Staked £10246

Ratchet (1% of current bank increasing over time but never reducing)
26.02% ROI - Current Profit £1017 - Total Staked £3909

Ratchet square root (combination of two above methods)
24.88% ROI - Current Profit £4028 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £16193
27.39% ROI - Current Profit £4873 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £17794

The plans that end up the highest obviously have more risk as some stakes reached £200+, especially in the 1-3-2-6 plan.  On the Ratchet Square Root plans the current stakes are £115 and £130 for Normal SP and Betfair SP respectively.  Betfair figures stated above include a 5% commission deduction.

I haven't put any real money on this yet, I've just been following it closely.  The last 2.5 months have been good producing ROIs in excess of 50% for level stakes and a couple of others plans.

Hopefully OP can take something from this but I'd be interested in reading others' comments too.  Cheers.

Edited by keef75
Last ROI was incorrect

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1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

@keef75 how did you calculate this please.

There are a few websites you can get this from, if you search for 'losing run based on strike rate'.

These are the figures I have:

Strike Rate Max Losing Run per 1000 bets
5 135
10 66
15 43
20 31
25 24
30 19
35 16
40 14
45 12
50 10
55 9
60 8
65 7
70 6
75 5
80 4
85 4
90 3
95 2

 

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On 9/6/2019 at 4:12 PM, keef75 said:

I've been away from here for quite a while since stopping working on the rdata site but I've still been following a few things.  I have a system that has, so far, produced 264 selections (horse racing).  It has a strike rate of just under 46% with an average win SP of 1.77 (1.89 on Betfair).  Longest losing run is 9 and the longest winning run is 6.  Calculated potential longest losing run is 13 per 1000 bets based on the strike rate.  I've played with many staking plans and, as I know the system makes good profit to level stakes, I'd like to know which plan would work best in this situation in the long run.

I have the following (all from a starting bank of £1000):

Level stakes (£10)
26.84% ROI - Current Profit £708 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £2640
32.23% ROI - Current Profit £850 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £2640

Multiplier on loss (x1.2 previous stake)
25.21% ROI - Current Profit £858 - Total Staked £3405

Percentage bank (1% of bank always)
25.79% ROI - Current Profit £969 - Total Staked £3758

Square root (base stake of £10 plus the square root of the current bank minus start bank)
23.79% ROI - Current Profit £3052 - Total Staked £12831

1-3-2-6 Staking (based on a 1% stake)
27.36% ROI - Current Profit £2803 - Total Staked £10246

Ratchet (1% of current bank increasing over time but never reducing)
26.02% ROI - Current Profit £1017 - Total Staked £3909

Ratchet square root (combination of two above methods)
24.88% ROI - Current Profit £4028 (Normal SP) - Total Staked £16193
27.39% ROI - Current Profit £4873 (Betfair SP) - Total Staked £17794

The plans that end up the highest obviously have more risk as some stakes reached £200+, especially in the 1-3-2-6 plan.  On the Ratchet Square Root plans the current stakes are £115 and £130 for Normal SP and Betfair SP respectively.  Betfair figures stated above include a 5% commission deduction.

I haven't put any real money on this yet, I've just been following it closely.  The last 2.5 months have been good producing ROIs in excess of 50% for level stakes and a couple of others plans.

Hopefully OP can take something from this but I'd be interested in reading others' comments too.  Cheers.

wow very nice, exact criteria please, thanks :))

On the serious note - well, the thing with staking plans is this (many just don't get this) - IF you have a profitable system, the more aggressive  your staking is, the higher the profit Doh! . So, the question  should not just be whats the highest profit, but what is the draw down I will experience with each staking system, what's the risk strategy behind it. You can't assume the profit will always be green, so what's the red month look like with each staking..

 

 

 

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Here's a chart showing 6 of the 9 plans, top to bottom:

Ratchet Square Root using Betfair SP
Ratchet Square Root using Standard SP
Square Root
1-3-2-6
Ratchet
Level Stakes

It's clear that the bigger the risks the bigger the rises and falls.  This is the bit I'm most uncertain of - which one to use when I start putting money on?

KAMG1.jpg

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On 9/6/2019 at 4:12 PM, keef75 said:

I've been away from here for quite a while since stopping working on the rdata site but I've still been following a few things.  I have a system that has, so far, produced 264 selections (horse racing).  It has a strike rate of just under 46% with an average win SP of 1.77 (1.89 on Betfair).

To clarify (because I still mess up with decimal prices!) the average SP of the winning bets are 2.77 (roughly 11/4  7/4 as pointed out by my fellow punter below!!!) and 2.89, I'd already removed the 1 for the stake in my calculations which is why I foolishly quoted them in my original post.  I wanted to clarify because there's no way a 46% SR at 1.77 is going to produce a profit to level stakes! 🤪

Edited by keef75
Edited because I'm a numpty who can't work with decimals!!

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22 hours ago, Xtc12 said:

@keef75 how did you calculate this please.

there is an easy way for anyone to calculate this -

 

(1/P)^N

P is your losing % (e.g. if you have odds of 2.0 its 0.5) and N is the number of consecutive losses you want to look at, let's say 4.

So it would take STATISTICALLY (1/0.5)^4 = 16 bets to come across a 4-loss streak..

 

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"I've been away from here for quite a while since stopping working on the rdata site but I've still been following a few things.  I have a system that has, so far, produced 264 selections (horse racing).  It has a strike rate of just under 46% with an average win SP of 1.77 (1.89 on Betfair).  Longest losing run is 9 and the longest winning run is 6.  Calculated potential longest losing run is 13 per 1000 bets based on the strike rate.  I've played with many staking plans and, "

46% Wow......at those odds 11/4.....suppose time will tell on the long run.With those aggressive betting plans it always helps to kick off with wins.You know the secret is always to play with their money.Any chance of sharing this system with us mere mortals in the future?

 

 

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5 hours ago, Zemside said:

Any chance of sharing this system with us mere mortals in the future?

Possibly... Whenever I go public with these things they always take a sharp turn for the worse for some reason!  This one is closer to the holy grail than I've ever been before.  I know hindsight is a brilliant thing but I wish I'd started with real money in June like I had intended.  I'd be over £350 up now from the starting bank of £1000 with only £40 risked before going into profit.

Working out the selections is easy, it takes just a couple of minutes a few times a week, but there's one criterion that needs you to be watching just before the off so I have to make a note of them and then ensure I'm able to check live.  Maybe I'll start a new thread and post the selections sometime in the future.

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On 9/8/2019 at 5:36 PM, keef75 said:

To clarify (because I still mess up with decimal prices!) the average SP of the winning bets are 2.77 (roughly 11/4) and 2.89, I'd already removed the 1 for the stake in my calculations which is why I foolishly quoted them in my original post.  I wanted to clarify because there's no way a 46% SR at 1.77 is going to produce a profit to level stakes! 🤪

Would you care to try and clarify one more time as 2.77 is roughly 7/4! ;) 11/4 is 3.75.

I'm assuming you do mean 2.77 and 7/4 as a 46% strike rate is very good at those odds and would beggar belief at 11/4!

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Yes, like I said, this whole decimal thing really messes with my head!  I believe it's 7/4 (2.77).  I couldn't believe it myself when I put 11/4 as I thought that seemed way too high!

Thanks for helping me out with that!!!

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Seems fine as long as it's your intention to show the decimal odds in that way for calculation purposes. In the same way that 5/1 is 6 when expressed as decimal odds (it pays 5 times stake as profit but returns 6 times your stake altogether) 7/4 is 1.75/1 or 2.75 and 5/2 is 2.5/1 or 3.5.

You are showing the decimal for just the profit rather than profit plus return. If it was me I'd probably show the correct decimal odds and subtract the stake in the formula but it doesn't really matter.

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