harry_rag

I'm swayed by the arguments that Atalanta are underrated tonight and have split my stake across the following bets:
Atalanta to qualify at 2.68 on BF
Atalanta to score >1.5 goals at 6/4 with 888 (and widely available)
Buy Atalanta goal rush at 15 with SPIN (0 for no goals, 10 for one then 20, 33, 50, 70 and 100 up to 6+ goals)
I also think (as per post in systems and strategy) that this is a game where 4-6 cards shown is more likely than not so have backed that at 21/20 with Hills.

I hadn't thought about it previously but decided to have a go at pricing it up for myself (very rough and ready). Inter and Man U are shorter than I'd make them and Sevilla and Shakhtar a bit longer. I've got Sevilla v Man U as a coin toss so, at the prices on offer, Sevilla to win or qualify seems like a reasonable call.
I had Shakhtar at around 7/1 outright and they're on offer at a couple of points more than that though I can't say I fancy them. They can score but also concede a fair few and Inter seem to have improved defensively. I can see Inter progressing 3-1 in that tie, e.g. win and btts. I'd see the other game as an unders/btts "no" type game. All very top of the head though.

Well in mate
He scored a penalty against Hibs on Saturday, other than that, I thought he was hopeless.

Do you have an opinion on the winner of the tournament @harry_rag ?
I think that both inter and man utd are being priced up on reputation and that sevilla will beat man utd on sunday.

2 winners enough for a modest profit despite the maximum loss on the spread bet.

Wolves v Sevilla.
Bought cross corners at 22 with SX (Wolves corners x Sevilla corners). A bit of a gut feel bet but can see Sevilla gaining a decent number and, depending on how the game pans out, a good chance the total can cross that line.
Ocampos anytime 3/1 and 2 or more 24/1 with 888. Standout prices for Sevilla's main goal getter. Yet to manage a brace so far this season but worth a punt at double the next best price on offer.
Reguilon anytime 18/1 with the same firm. Young attacking fullback linked with Chelsea. Has three goals post-lockdown, 2 in the league and one against Roma. Goal mins maybe cheap at 3 with SPIN but think I'll stick to anytime.
Shakhtar v Basel.
4-6 cards shown at 21/20 with Hills (as posted in systems and strategy). A value bet for me in simple "odds against about an odds on shot" sense.

Not something I'd ever do. I'd suggest you're betting too much on your selections if you end up "running out" of money by the end of the week. So if you hit the stop loss on Friday (let's assume a Monday to Sunday week) then you can't bet over the weekend even if a couple of excellent opportunities present themselves. Then when Monday rolls around you start betting again if even the selections are more marginal.
Better to have an overall bank and approach to staking that means you can bet whenever a good opportunity presents itself.
Personally I've never really bothered with an overall betting bank, I just track how I'm doing and if I'm losing more than I'm happy with I look to where the losses are occurring and try to eliminate the losing bet types. I can see the merit if you're betting close to what you can afford but I'd still try and do it in such a way that I could bet 7 days a week rather than have days where I'm not "allowed" to bet on strong selections.
Obviously you should only bet money you can afford to lose. Personally the amount I'm actually willing to lose is less than I could afford to lose and the amount the bookies are willing to allow me to stake tends to be somewhere in between!

87 penalties in total so far (67 scored and 20 missed). I've taken the opportunity to close out penalties scored at 68.75 as there's so little downside to doing so. Profit on that element of the bet 33.25 times stake. No option to close out the missed penalties element so I've had small doubles on penalty missed across all 10 games! 
Happy enough to have called it right, and to avoid the potential mild discomfort of a penalty glut on the last day of the season!

Hills the only bookie I'm aware of that offer it (making it a less than ideal medium for a thread like this, long term at least)! 

You're too kind, literally! 
One does ones best though! Will see if any selections for today.

>6 cards in both games so 15 points lost whether staked as a double or 2 singles. First losing day (in 6) had you backed every selection in as a single.

what a gold mine thead!!!!
 
cant believe i never back it
 
congratulations Harry
you re great player

i've been a bit disappointed @harry_rag, i thought he'd score more. I also bought mcginn at 3.5 and he scored 3 early on then got injured. Greenwood was one i was looking at also, with hindsight that would have been profitable. I think he was about 6 to buy.

The overall sample of 183 games I looked at showed 93 games with 4-6 cards (average odds 1.98), 85 with 40-60 bookings points (2.15) and 69 with 45-65 points (2.65).
40-60 might be an interesting band if the prices are much above the 2.15 mark. I may take a closer look when time allows.

That's a very good question. The trouble with the specific 4-6 cards market is that only one firm I'm aware of offers it whereas plenty might offer a mid band like 45-65. That might be value in some or all of these cases as well but I'm not sure. I will have a quick look over my stats to see if any easy conclusions can be drawn.
2 red cards and a yellow = 60 points but is only 3 cards; 1 red with 4 or 5 yellows is >60 points but only 5 or 6 cards, so they're different bets.

Just the 2 qualifying selections today (1 each in Italy and Portugal) so you know what to do (back them as singles)! 
15 point double on 4-6 cards in the games at Inter (11/10) and Setubal (23/20).
 

Update to overall record after this week's bets.
27 winners from 83 bets (32.53%). 1363.5 points returns 1482.58 for a profit of 119.08 points with an ROI of 8.73%.
Overall total for the thread now looks like this.
106 winners from 383 bets (27.68%). 5569 points returns 5507.83 for a loss of -61.17 points with an ROI of -1.1%.

Cheers. It's an interesting angle to explore but still early days. Could just be luck that it's done well so far and I'm still down across the bigger sample of "value" bets.

You are Good mate!?? keep it up!!

6 winners from 10 selections for 2 winning doubles. Could've been better with 3 doubles or worse with just one so reasonable luck.
75 points returns 135.53 points for a profit of 60.53 points. If staked as 7.5 point singles the return would have been 94.88 points so doubles trumps singles again (has done so every day there's been more than 2 selections).
Across the 5 days of betting there have been 19 winning selections from 30 giving 5 winning doubles from 15. 225 points return 330.95 for a profit of 105.95 points. Singles would have returned 298.51 points so doubles doing better so far.

Let's put it to the vote. I say we call him T-Bone! 
(Sorry, obscure Seinfeld reference but I couldn't resist it.)

Tnk uh for the clarification

4 winning selections from 6 yesterday. Landed the minimum one winning double rather than the maximum two.
45 points returns 69.34 for a profit of 24.34 points. If staked as 6 singles at 7.5 points each instead the return would have been 63.75 points so, once again, doubles beat singles despite not hitting the maximum number of doubles.
Unlucky in Portugal as the bet was sunk by a 7th yellow card deep into stoppage time.

The bet won because both games had between 4-6 cards shown; 4 at Torino and 6 at Roma. The odds for those games were 21/20 not 21/10 as stated. Settlement reflects the actual odds (all selections being a bit better than evens).

7 winners from 10 selections. Unfortunately, the 3 losers all landed in different doubles so it's just the 2 winning doubles rather than the potential maximum of 3.
75 points returns 126.08 for a profit of 51.08 points. If staked as 10 singles at 7.5 points each instead the return would have been 108.75 points so doubles beat singles despite the sub-optimum distribution of the losing bets.