SPL Predictions > Aug 8th - 12th

[StevieDay1983]

The Scottish Premiership continues for another but this week there are no fixtures for Aberdeen after two of their players tested positive for covid-19 after breaking lockdown guidelines to go on the piss with some team mates in the city centre. Good old lack of self discipline! Anyway, here are the odds for these matches. ELO ratings will follow as soon as they are updated to include the fixture list without Aberdeen's matches taken into consideration. 

[StevieDay1983]

Hamilton vs Ross County

The Scottish Premiership action begins its second week of action on Saturday. There is no 12:30pm BST kick-off with Aberdeen versus St Johnstone being postponed so we have to wait until 3pm BST for the first matches of the weekend with Hamilton taking on Ross County at New Douglas Park. These two sides experienced contrasting fortunes on the opening weekend of league matches so will be looking for a win for different reasons here.

Hamilton suffered a disappointing, yet unsurprising, 5-1 dismantling at the hands of reigning champions Celtic at Celtic Park. Brian Rice will try not to dwell too much on the result. It's not those games that will decide the fate of his team this season. It's this one coming up here. The good news is that Accies come into this game knowing that their home ground is a bit of a decent hunting ground for them in recent times having won 3 of their last 5 home matches.

Ross County enjoyed a positive start to their campaign last weekend with a shock 1-0 win at home to Motherwell. The conveniently named Ross Stewart (there's got to be some Ross-related in-joke going on at that club with five squad players sharing the name of the team) scored the only goal from the penalty spot in the 24th minute to deliver the 3 points. However, winning at home is completely different to getting results on the road. County have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in the league and won just 2 of their 16 away league matches that were played before the season cancellation last year.

I have to back the home win in this one. Hamilton shouldn't be judged by their result against Celtic. The Hoops will tear into a lot of teams like that this season so Academicals won't be the only victims of such a score-line at Celtic Park. Ross County were impressive against Motherwell but that was at home. Their away form is dreadful and I feel this will be a much tougher challenge.

Hamilton Draw No Bet @ 1.97 with VBet

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.80 with Bet365

[StevieDay1983]

Livingston vs Hibernian

The second kick-off at 3pm BST on Saturday afternoon in the Scottish Premiership is between Livingston and Hibernian at the Tony Macaroni Arena. Every time I cover a Livingston home game I always ask myself two questions. Firstly, how odd the name of the stadium sounds. Secondly, how on earth does a professional team in the Scottish league system get away with playing on an artificial surface when it clearly gives them such an advantage?

Livingston will have surprised very few punters last weekend by losing their opening league game of the season away to last season's strugglers St Mirren by a 1-0 score. It's basically what they do now. They get most of their points at home and then fail to get results on the road. The Lions had the third best home record in the top flight of Scottish football last season. During the process they picked up 71% of all their points earned over the entire season on home turf. To add to that, their defensive record was incredible with only 8 goals conceded at home last season. Only Celtic and Rangers conceded less at home with 7 goals. Gary Holt will fancy his sides chances here.

Hibernian were tipped by us (myself and resident Hibernian fan @allyhibs) to do the business last weekend. The Cabbage did not let us down! Jack Ross saw his team beat Kilmarnock 2-1 with a satisfactory display. There is still room for improvement but it was a very positive start to the campaign. This will be a tough test. Hibs failed to beat Livingston in any of their three encounters last season including losing the away game. The team also lost 8 of their 15 away league games last season.

Have Hibernian evolved enough to make me feel they can get something here? It certainly feels like they've taken a step in the right direction but this is Livingston playing at home. It's a very hard match to approach. I can see Hibs maybe scraping a point but if I was pushed I'd have to say that Livingston are hard to bet against on their own patch. I think I might go for a Livingston draw no bet because they remain so dangerous at home with the artificial pitch.

Livingston Draw No Bet @ 1.90 with Unibet

BTTS @ 1.83 with Boylesports

[StevieDay1983]

Motherwell vs Dundee United

The final preview of the 3pm BST kick-offs on Saturday afternoon in the Scottish Premiership is between Motherwell and Dundee United at Fir Park. Both of these teams failed to pick up wins in their opening matches of the league campaign so the pressure will be on to grab their first 3 points of the season here. Failure to do so could see the cogs of pressure starting to turn.

Motherwell suffered a disappointing 1-0 loss away to Ross County last weekend. It was not the result that Stephen Robinson was expecting and he'll now be keen to see his side bounce back on home turf. It's not been a great 2020 for the Well so far with just 2 victories coming from 10 matches in this calendar year. The added fact that the club won less than half of their home games last season shows they're not using their home ground as a fortress either. Maybe that will change here with the pressure of a present home crowd not there.

Dundee United saw their first game back in the top flight of Scottish football end in a 1-1 draw with St Johnstone. Manager Micky Mellon will be gutted that his team couldn't hold onto their early lead to secure all 3 points at home last weekend but he'll be relieved that they are at least off the mark with 1 point. The Terrors got into the habit of winning last season and lost just 2 of their last 20 league matches. However, that does include a run of drawing 4 of their last 6 league games.

This is a fascinating clash this weekend. If this match was one of the openers last week then I'd be heavily backing Motherwell to win it but last posed a lot of new questions. Motherwell didn't quite look right and Dundee United showed they can adapt to this level effectively. I'm not completely sure United will win but I think they're good value for the draw in this one.

Draw @ 3.40 with William Hill

BTTS @ 1.95 with Bet365

[allyhibs]

Livingston v Hibernian.

As @StevieDay1983 points out, the artificial pitch gives Livingston a bit of an advantage at home (Tony Macaroni is a chain of Italian restaurants up here, the stadium's been nicknamed The Spaghettihad by fans). They have, however lost a couple of key men from last season and were very poor away to St Mirren last week, looking lethargic and not looking up to match speed yet.

Hibs have clearly got the better squad and started the season with a good win over Kilmarnock, going 2 nil up after 30 minutes in a decent first half display, I think they tired a little bit in the second half and sat in and defended their lead quite comfortably, the Hibs goalie not really having a save to make.

Hibs will play with a different formation than last week, Christian Doidge coming back in to be the central focus up front with Boyle back on the right wing. The frankly disgraceful pitch means you have to alter your style of play and Hibs have the players to do that when required, going long for Doidge to hold up or for Boyle to run onto could unlock the Livi back 4 and I've got a feeling the game could go the same way as last week with Hibs racing into an early lead. I think the bookies have overpriced the away win here, I'd have Hibs as favourites.

Hibs @ 3.00 - 2pts.

Hibs Half Time @ 3.60 - 1pt.

Martin Boyle Anytime Scorer @ 3.25 - 0.5pt.

 

Edited August 8, 2020 by allyhibs

[bookiebasher]

On 8/8/2020 at 11:20 AM, allyhibs said:

Livingston v Hibernian.

As @StevieDay1983 points out, the artificial pitch gives Livingston a bit of an advantage at home (Tony Macaroni is a chain of Italian restaurants up here, the stadium's been nicknamed The Spaghettihad by fans). They have, however lost a couple of key men from last season and were very poor away to St Mirren last week, looking lethargic and not looking up to match speed yet.

Hibs have clearly got the better squad and started the season with a good win over Kilmarnock, going 2 nil up after 30 minutes in a decent first half display, I think they tired a little bit in the second half and sat in and defended their lead quite comfortably, the Hibs goalie not really having a save to make.

Hibs will play with a different formation than last week, Christian Doidge coming back in to be the central focus up front with Boyle back on the right wing. The frankly disgraceful pitch means you have to alter your style of play and Hibs have the players to do that when required, going long for Doidge to hold up or for Boyle to run onto could unlock the Livi back 4 and I've got a feeling the game could go the same way as last week with Hibs racing into an early lead. I think the bookies have overpriced the away win here, I'd have Hibs as favourites.

Hibs @ 3.00 - 2pts.

Hibs Half Time @ 3.60 - 1pt.

Martin Boyle Anytime Scorer @ 3.25 - 0.5pt.

 

Good job man good job.

[StevieDay1983]

@allyhibs, what are you thinking for these midweek games? Potentially tricky game for you boys away at Dundee United tonight. Reckon you can get all 3 points? It's all been very positive so far.

[Magic0024]

Football Facts and Streaks regarding Premiership

St. Johnstone are undefeated in their last 8 matches in Premiership.
Motherwell are undefeated in their last 9 home matches against Livingston in all competitions.
Livingston have lost their last 3 matches in Premiership.
Celtic are undefeated in their last 15 matches against St. Mirren in all competitions.
St. Mirren are undefeated in their last 6 home matches in Premiership.

You can find interesting 39 Football Betting Facts and Streaks for 12.08.2020 on this link ... https://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-and-streaks-12-08-2020-20274

[allyhibs]

Dundee Utd v Hibernian.

I'm liking the look of this Hibs team a lot, scoring 6 times in the first 2 games and still not conceding from open play (direct free kick v Killie, penalty v Livi). The exact same team as Saturday has been announced and a similar performance should see it 3 wins from 3.

Utd got a decent result at Motherwell at the weekend in a disciplined, functional performance but I thought Motherwell were poor for the second game in a row. I don't think Utd look great at the back and that could spell disaster against the Hibs attack. 

Just like the Hibs team tonight, why change a winning formula, same bets as the weekend for me, with a change to the goalscorer bet.

Hibs @ 2.30 - 2pts.

Hibs Halftime @ 3.00 - 1pt.

Kevin Nisbet First Goalscorer @ 5.50 - 0.5pt.

 

[allyhibs]

That was poor stuff, especially the first half, a bit better in the second half, I expected Utd to play more open Good to see we can grind out a result in these kind of games. Still not conceded a goal from open play.

Christian Doidge for Wales? @StevieDay1983, he's a real handful up front, hard working, must be a nightmare to play against and most importantly, scores goals.

 

.

[StevieDay1983]

22 hours ago, allyhibs said:

That was poor stuff, especially the first half, a bit better in the second half, I expected Utd to play more open Good to see we can grind out a result in these kind of games. Still not conceded a goal from open play.

Christian Doidge for Wales? @StevieDay1983, he's a real handful up front, hard working, must be a nightmare to play against and most importantly, scores goals.

Yeah, there have been a few fans suggesting him but it's been greeted with the (outrageously and ill-formed) snobbery of other fans claiming "anyone can score goals in the Scottish Premiership!". I'm all for giving him a go. I felt we should have given others more of a chance in the past rather than persist with the likes of Simon Church and Tyler Roberts. Kieffer Moore has the number 9 role sewn up but we need more options up front. Usually, Wales are never short of attacking front-line talent and it's often our defence that is weak but we really could do with a natural goalscorer. He'd get so much supply from the likes of Gareth Bale, Harry Wilson, Aaron Ramsey, Tom Lawrence, and Daniel James.

[harry_rag]

Motherwell v Livingston: Dyke at 7/2 anytime with PP. SX make him the most likely scorer in the game and I just don't think he should be that big a price. Has 10 in 27 SPL games.

[allyhibs]

Ross County v Kilmarnock.

I've been thinking about this all day and finally decided to pull the trigger. 

I was impressed with Killie at Easter Road 10 days ago and they followed that up with a good display in a draw with Celtic, I think tonight they can get their first win of the season that their play deserves.

Ross Co have started well with narrow wins over Motherwell and Hamilton but I'm not sure that's all that impressive, there seems to be something wrong at Motherwell just now, possibly manager problems, and Hamilton are awful. Killie edge it here for me.

Kilmarnock @ 2.40 - 1pt.

[allyhibs]

1 hour ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Yeah, there have been a few fans suggesting him but it's been greeted with the (outrageously and ill-formed) snobbery of other fans claiming "anyone can score goals in the Scottish Premiership!". I'm all for giving him a go. I felt we should have given others more of a chance in the past rather than persist with the likes of Simon Church and Tyler Roberts. Kieffer Moore has the number 9 role sewn up but we need more options up front. Usually, Wales are never short of attacking front-line talent and it's often our defence that is weak but we really could do with a natural goalscorer. He'd get so much supply from the likes of Gareth Bale, Harry Wilson, Aaron Ramsey, Tom Lawrence, and Daniel James.

If he keeps scoring goals at this rate, Giggs can't ignore him. He's one of those players that only seems to score scruffy goals, in and around the 6 yard box, has a knack of being in the right place at the right time, he's good in the air also. With the likes of Bale and Ramsey supplying, he'd score a few. He's decent, doesn't matter what league he plays in.

[harry_rag]

52 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Motherwell v Livingston: Dyke at 7/2 anytime with PP. SX make him the most likely scorer in the game and I just don't think he should be that big a price. Has 10 in 27 SPL games.

Glad to say he's taking pens this season! 

[allyhibs]

5 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Glad to say he's taking pens this season! 

Well in mate

He scored a penalty against Hibs on Saturday, other than that, I thought he was hopeless.

[harry_rag]

Cheers, yeah I noticed both goals this season were pens but none last season.

I just thought that 7/2 looked big compared to his goal minutes on the spreads and his stats supported the idea that it might be a reasonable punt.