harry_rag

Just a reminder of how my recent descent down the rabbit hole of player stats bets began. Fair to say I went a bit too far down the said orifice and am being a lot more selective now. Put simply, assists, shots on target, headed goals and goals from outside the box bets are generally rank bad value and to be avoided but, having said that, there will occasionally be value to be had. That 8/1 for Kane against City was clearly a great bet win or lose and some of the 3/1 or more for Kane and Son since then have also been solid bets. In most games though, there is unlikely to be any bet worth taking in any of those markets (unless it involves being the bookie and laying or selling).
Let's deal with Kane first; 11 assists in 8 of his 16 league games this season mean he has been hugely profitable to follow this season. Last season though, he only registered 2 assists in 29 games and it was 5 in 27 the season before that. So let's not place too much reliance on his freakish stats for this season. SPIN quote his assist minutes at 20-23 but SX are only going 16-19. That implies that they see him as around a 2/1 shot to assist a goal tonight, maybe slightly more in SX's case. The best price I have seen is 21/10. For me that's no bet. Value if you look just at this season's stats but poor if you consider the bigger picture, and if you take into account the prices we've been seeing lately.
Son, on the other hand, is much more consistent in terms of assists. 5 in 5 of his 16 games this season, 10 in 28 and 6 in 23 if you go back a couple more years. SPIN go 18-21 and SX go 15-18. Let's equate that to around 12/5 for an assist. When I first started looking at prices he was 14/5 with Ladbrokes which definitely caught my eye but was cut to 13/5 by the time I'd done the rounds. Still, for me, a price worth taking, especially with a daily boost applied.
Spurs v Fulham: 25 points on Son to assist a goal at 11/4 with Lads (5/2 or more acceptable).
Just checked before submitting this and he's down to 5/2 now, so best be quick if you are inclined to follow.

Manchester City vs Brighton
I think Punters Lounge's very own Harry Kane and Heung-min Son in the form of @harry_rag and @thfc have got the Tottenham versus Fulham game locked down so I'm going to write a quick preview for the Manchester City versus Brighton match that's taking place a little bit earlier on Wednesday night at 6pm GMT from the Etihad Stadium. How many are the hosts going to score is essentially the only question we need to ask, right? 
Manchester City endured a troublesome start to their Premier League campaign with just 3 wins from their opening 8 league matches but it's all coming together for Pep Guardiola's side now. The Citizens are up to 6th and just 7 points behind league leaders and local rivals Manchester United with 2 games in hand. It's 7 league games undefeated for the team and it's been 5 clean sheets during that period. The form of Portuguese starlet Ruben Dias has been a key factor in that defensive solidity. A few players are unavailable for Pep with Sergio Aguero self-isolating after a covid-19 issue and both Aymeric Laporte and Nathan Ake remain sidelined through injury. Scoring goals remains a problem for City with only four teams scoring fewer goals than them this season. However, City to tend to score early in games with 18 of their 24 goals scored this season coming in the first half.
Brighton still just can't find that much-needed league win. Graham Potter will be disappointed his team couldn't even finish off League Two side Newport County in the FA Cup 3rd Round over the weekend over 90 minutes and needed penalties to get the job done. It's now 8 league games without a win for the Seagulls and they have dropped to 17th place and just 3 points outside the relegation zone. The worrying fact is that 18th placed Fulham also have 2 games in hand on them. January is historically not a great month for Brighton in the top flight either. They have failed to win any of their 13 Premier League games played in this month. To make the statistics worse, Brighton are also without a win in all 9 of their Premier League games played on a Wednesday. This could be a struggle!
We don't need to scan through the stats too hard to work out this could be a difficult night for Brighton. Manchester City are just about kicking into gear now. Some people are even now saying they're favourites to win the league. I think they're one clinical striker away from being a really devastating side once again. The defence is helping out with things right now but one goal or less scored in 3 of their last 5 league games shows that if the defence has an off day then they could be there for the taking. I think they should get through this one with relative ease though.
Manchester City to Win to Nil @ 1.83 with SpreadEx
Total Goals Scored Under 3.5 @ 1.71 with Novibet

In which case I'll have to credit you with an assist! 

Spurs against Fulham is now being played Wednesday after some Covid related fixture alterations.  Fulham only got 2 days notice of the game being played, as did spurs, but the difference was spurs were expecting to play midweek (vs Villa) whereas Fulham thought they had the week off so have probably been resting rather than training too extensively.
I'd fancy spurs anyway, but given these circumstances, I am putting a strong bet on spurs half time/full time which you can get for 2.1 with bet365.  Aside from the late notice of the fixture being played, spurs tend to get off to a fast start in fixtures, and then look to hold on to what they have.  Fulham have picked up of late, but needed extra time to get past QPR in the FA cup, and will hardly have prepared for this game, and aren't exactly a prolific goalscoring team.  I think they still have a couple of players out with Covid.  For these reasons, I'm also going to have a bit on spurs to win to nil at 2.45 with BetVictor. 
Kane and Son have both had a rest, as they didn't play in the FA cup, so should be fresh for this one.  I'm sure @harry_rag will find a nice bet on a Kane assist somewhere so will look out for that, as I'm sure he will have plenty of opportunities to score/assist in this one. 

Busy day yesterday!
4 out of 4 on the RU sells, only Castres hotshots didn't make up at zero but still a 6 point profit despite 2 tries. 149 points profit.
2 of the 5 goalscorers obliged (Hall for Chorley and Terrode for Hamburg) for 2 winning bets from 8. 104 points returned 144 for a 40 point profit.
No joy with the buy of Leverkusen headed goal minutes so a loss of 35 points.
Neither of the TD scorers obliged so a loss of 46 points.
108 point profit on the day and 179.5 points up overall.

No joy yesterday but today is another day ?

This is the best week of the NFL, these games matter.                          In the wildcard stages in the last 3 years the stats are:                   Teams     win by 11+ 2             win by 8-10 1             win by 5-7 5             win by 1-4 4                 12                               Having a good defence is crucial at this stage when margins are so close.         The best defence LA Rams +3.5 @ 20/23           With Covid affecting the Browns, I will side with the Steelers -6 @10/11     Bears will lose but by 10? Bears +10 @ 20/23           Bills are excellent Bills -6.5 @ 20/23             The Ravens defence will find a way to slow Henry Ravens -3 @ 4/5
          Whilst I think the Buccs will beat Washington, I am going to give this game a miss.                     Usual bet 1 point Canadian 4 point accumulator 30 points staked all odds and spreads Bet365
Season record
W34 L28 D 4 season profit ats 266 points.

Chorley v Derby: 24 points on Connor Hall to score at 9/4 with PP.
Kicks off in 5 mins, flagged by someone in a text and I agree it's a decent price with them odds on for the win.

Unlucky mate. It was a weird game. The sending off just completely killed it with Peterborough just going for the draw and Lincoln not quite managing to breach their back-line.

Brilliant stuff @Darran well done mate!!! Chorley surely have their names on the cup now!!!

Nice selections on this thread in general, well done @Labrador and @harry_rag also.
Keep up the good work lads!!!

2 winning bets yesterday on Villa goal times +70.5 points, 1 from 3 Rugby sells +7 points for a total profit on the day of 77.5 points.
71.5 points up overall.

Scores after 10 mins?? .

Mainz v Frankfurt  14:30
Both teams over 1.5 cards @ 2.05 b365
The referee  B. Dankert  has averaged 5.17 cards  in 2020/21, the 3rd highest in the division

Decent that matey

This week’s pick is Osasuna 0 Asian handicap cards v Real Madrid, 1pt at 1.6 with 365.
Either this is possibly the best value bet of all time or there’s a typo in Kev’s explanation of how it works: “Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Osasuna’s total is higher than Real’s the bet will win, if it is the same stakes will be refunded and if it is lower the bet will win.” 

Villa to score went out to 5/1 once the strong Liverpool line up was announced. I was similarly inclined and luckily waited till I pulled the trigger. Earlier on Villa goal minutes were 31 to buy (would’ve yielded a 10 point profit for their 41st minute goal) but plummeted to 12 for a 29 point gain.

40th minute equaliser? .

Cashed out spread bets as soon as Mane scored. Closed at 5.8 and 79 respectively.
Probably regret it but suspicion that 2nd half will be like a training session with 5 subs allowed for each side. A healthy profit not to be sneezed at.

No hotshots or sub tries so +88 points from those 2 bets.

Thanks Helen. I was just thinking in terms of a bit of chat about strategy (fairly low level to accommodate my skill level!) e.g. preferred openings etc. or which apps people favour for playing online. I'd be up for a game if anyone fancied one.
I currently use an app called ChessByPost and have played a lot of games during the pandemic against someone I know from another forum (>200). I've just made my first foray into playing ranked games against randomly allocated opponents.
I'm not short of "action" as it were but was just intrigued to see if there was any interest in the game on the forum.

We have a newly set up 'Off Topic Chat' Forum which you might not have seen at the bottom of the forum menu. 
Fledgeling threads in there currently about Bitcoin, Stocks & Shares and Chess. We thought there may be some crossover particularly with chess and poker if anyone in here is interested to join in the discussion.
 

1776 result: Garcia 67, Gay 70. Won £80
Profit to date £1034.88

Have updated the final 2020 figures; last 5 years totals net of a full 5% commission and using Betfair SP

Year Win Backs 2016 127.26 2017 157.97 2018 -50.89 2019 128.36 2020 142.33 Total 505.03  

Hi All,

A very Happy New Year to you all and best wishes for 2021.

We're back live from today and looking to replicate last years and the previous years great returns.

Just to recap, we looking to back for the Win only once the Betfair SP price is 5.0 or above. Any horse below this is being ignored. You can use the "set SP limit" at 5.0 on Betfair to ensure this is completed automatically for you.


12:40 LINGFIELD (A.W) Baba Reza 13:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Ornate 13:40 LINGFIELD (A.W) Anisoptera 14:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Too Friendly 14:25 FAKENHAM Perfect Moment 15:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Cafe Sydney 15:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Kyllukey 16:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Inevitable Outcome 17:20 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) My Girl Maggie 17:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Athmad 18:20 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Odyssey Girl 19:20 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Inaam 19:50 WOLVERHAMPTON (A.W) Revolutionary Man


 
                                                             

Football won but horse lost , so small profit today ?