harry_rag Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 A simple premise, as of 1st Jan I'll start posting an indicative stake for all the selections I post on here (whether in a personal quest or the thread for a specific sport) and I'll track the performance in here so I know whether or not they've been profitable. I've been posting a few more footy bets lately and, after a bit of a barren spell, have found a few decent winners. Rather than having a general sense of my posted bets doing well or badly I thought I'd track them so I know for sure. I'd expect them to be profitable over the course of a year (ever the optimist) but will expose the performance for all to see either way. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 3, 2021 Author Share Posted January 3, 2021 Quick update, bets posted in the Rugby Union and Premier League footy threads thus far. 4 from 7 profitable RU spread sells yielded a return of +75 points 3 from 10 fixed odds footy bets saw 87 points return 222 for +135 points Total after 2 days = +210 points. January starts with good fortune, contrasting with results in December. Obviously it's long term results that count and we're neither as good as our best days or as bad as our worst ones. alancraik, vikki37, Torque and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just the one losing sell yesterday, Lewandowski goal minutes costing 87 points putting the sells into the red at -12 points. 2 from 5 NFL bets saw 93 points return 129 for a 36 point profit. Total after 3 days = +159 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 88 points lost on the Southampton v Liverpool game last night, 86 on fixed odds and 2 on a spread buy. Profit down to +71 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 0 from 7 on the Spurs v Brentford game last night for a 100 point loss. I'll be cutting back on the assist/header etc. bets for a while whilst I have a bit of a stock take. -29 points for all posted bets this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 50 minutes ago, harry_rag said: I'll be cutting back on the assist/header etc. bets for a while whilst I have a bit of a stock take. Assist betting looks like a layer's paradise, not that we get the chance to lay in that market. Maybe one firm offers to assist and not assist prices though I suspect the margin is huge. Also there is the opportunity to lay assist minutes on the spreads which may be worth a closer look. Pre-November last year I went 0-9 for a 136 point loss on backing players to assist a goal. I'm happy to largely discount those as random bets that caught my eye or were tipped by someone else and I followed. November onwards (call these "properly" researched bets) I had 2 winners from 13, both Kane, for a 20 point loss. This year I've had 3 winners from 9 bets (Kane, Son and Vardy) for a 78 point profit. So a loss overall but a modest profit since I started looking at the market in more detail but a heavy reliance on a few players. I wouldn't write the market off but the approach needs to be very selective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Bets on all things header related don't look too bad so worth persisting with given that it's an area that doesn't throw up that many potential bets. At an aggregate level (header scored in the match/by a team, including spreads) I had 2 winners from 8 bets for a 72 point profit. Both bets came in the same game, a buy of Leverkusen headed goal minutes and backing 2 or more headers in the game. That was when someone of this parish alerted me to Leverkusen's tendency for headed goals. At a player level 2 winners from 17 bets has also yielded a 72 point profit. Last year I was on Lewandowski to score a header at 9/2 and this year I landed Saiss for Wolves at 25/1. As I'm not over-betting this and it's showing a positive return I might as well carry on looking at the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Goals from outside the box looks a bit less auspicious though a big priced winner would make a huge difference to the figures. 26 bets yet to yield a winner and a loss of 130 points. Bets on shots on target from outside the box has shown a profit though; 3 winners from 9 for a 43 point profit. The winners were Mount, Rodriguez and De Bruyne and at least 2 of them were boosted, standout prices. All in all, I think it's not worth going too far down this rabbit hole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Federererer said: Do you really think that there’s profit to be made on these kind of markets - shots on target, assists, headers, goals from outside the box, etc? Absolutely 100%, for the bookies. The vast majority of these bets will be struck by casual punters doing minimal research and not necessarily shopping around for the best price. Whether I can make a profit out of them is the reason for the taking stock of how the bets have gone. My gut feel is I've been influenced by some good recent wins and have started to spend more time looking at these markets than they merit. Most of the prices offered are rubbish, occasionally there is value to be had (as with most markets). Whether I can find the value often enough to show a profit and whether it is worth the time and effort trying is what I'm considering. To be honest, I could say that about fixed odds backing full stop. If I really wanted to maximise returns (at the expense of occasionally enjoying a challenge) I'd focus on spread betting and trying my hand at laying. 20 minutes ago, Federererer said: I heard people start to talk about these markets more and more during the 2018 World Cup, and I remember thinking at the time that these sound like markets for mug punters, that the bookies will clean up on. People thought they had a great price because they had 16/1 on so-and-so to score from outside the box, but I can’t see that these would be markets that the bookies would get wrong. I agree. Usually 16/1 will be a poor price for that eventuality. Sometimes it won't be (think Messi against worse than average opponents). Sometimes that player will be 33/1 elsewhere which may be a value bet. The bookies can be fairly lazy about how they price these markets in the knowledge that most punters will take poor prices and they'll make a decent profit. Occasionally there will be genuine value to be had. My inclination is to rein back my recent increase in studying and betting on these markets but not to abandon them altogether. Certainly to be more selective. We'll see how that pans out and, if it still doesn't look worth it I'll bin them off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Final category, straightforward shots on target related betting (which I don't look at that much). 6 winners from 17 bets for a profit of 133.5 points. That doesn't fool me into thinking I should start looking at that market more but it certainly doesn't put me off having one or two bets a month on it! I'm happy to conclude, overall, that I've started placing too many of these bets (e.g. 7 or 8 on one game) and should go back to being far more selective. Equally happy that there's no need to eliminate them altogether. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 (edited) 0 from 4 fixed odds footy bets for a loss of 65 points, 2 out of 2 from rugby sells for a profit of 88 points, +23 points up on the day and 6 points down overall. Edited January 7, 2021 by harry_rag Missed one bet off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 9, 2021 Author Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 winning bets yesterday on Villa goal times +70.5 points, 1 from 3 Rugby sells +7 points for a total profit on the day of 77.5 points. 71.5 points up overall. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 Busy day yesterday! 4 out of 4 on the RU sells, only Castres hotshots didn't make up at zero but still a 6 point profit despite 2 tries. 149 points profit. 2 of the 5 goalscorers obliged (Hall for Chorley and Terrode for Hamburg) for 2 winning bets from 8. 104 points returned 144 for a 40 point profit. No joy with the buy of Leverkusen headed goal minutes so a loss of 35 points. Neither of the TD scorers obliged so a loss of 46 points. 108 point profit on the day and 179.5 points up overall. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 0 from 2 anytime scorers for a 33 point loss. 3 out of 4 on the rugby sells for a 72 point profit. 1 out of 2 on the NFL sells for a 14 point profit. 1 out of 2 on the NFL TD scorers, 44 points returns 76.8 for a 32.8 point profit. 85.8 point profit on the day and 265.3 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just the 2 bets in my "value bets" thread yesterday, both on 4-6 cards in Spanish games. The first one won, 1 from 2 and 43 points returns 50.6 for a 7.6 point gain. 272.9 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 13, 2021 Author Share Posted January 13, 2021 22 hours ago, harry_rag said: Just the 2 bets in my "value bets" thread yesterday, both on 4-6 cards in Spanish games. The first one won, 1 from 2 and 43 points returns 50.6 for a 7.6 point gain. 272.9 points up overall. All a bit Groundhog day yesterday, except that it was 47 points returning 51.6 for a 4.6 point profit. 277.5 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 0 from 3 fixed odds footy bets yesterday for a 55 point loss. 222.5 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 16, 2021 Author Share Posted January 16, 2021 0 from 2 cards bets yesterday for a 44 point loss, 11 point profit from the RU sell. 189.5 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 0 from 3 NFL bets yesterday for a 60 point loss, one from 2 on the footy (Son assist) for a 24.4 point profit. +4 point adjustment from the correction mentioned in the Rugby Union thread (noticed I'd missed a bet). 111.9 points up overall. Spreads are +366.5 points, fixed odds -254.6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 from 5 footy bets since the last update (Smith-Rowe assist) for a small gain, 67 points returning 78 for an 11 point profit. 122.9 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just the 30 point loss on the De Bruyne assist bet yesterday. 92.9 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 winning and 3 losing sells on the Rugby for a 29 point loss, a loss of 23 points on the 4-6 cards bet so a total loss on the day of 52 points. 40.9 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 out of 2 on the TD scorers last night, 40 points returns 105 for a 65 point profit. 105.9 points up overall. vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 0 from 4 footy bets last night for a 47 point loss. 58.9 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Since the last update there have been: 4 winning rugby sells for an 18 point profit 2 losing footy bets for a 30 point loss A winning spread bet on the golf for a 27 point profit and 3 losing fixed odds bets for a 12.5 point loss An overall profit of 2.5 points so I finish the month 61.4 points up. 322 points profit from 39 sell bets 60.5 points profit from 5 other spread bets 321.1 points loss from 82 fixed odds bets (ROI -26.14%) Fair to say I could do better with regards to the fixed odds bets. Will see how that compares to my recent betting history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 45 minutes ago, harry_rag said: I finish the month 61.4 points up. 322 points profit from 39 sell bets 60.5 points profit from 5 other spread bets 321.1 points loss from 82 fixed odds bets (ROI -26.14%) Fair to say I could do better with regards to the fixed odds bets. Will see how that compares to my recent betting history. A poor month for fixed odds bets. Last year fixed odds backing was the only losing area for me but I've lost more on it this month than I did in the whole of last year! My total profit from the bets posted on here this month would have been 6 times more if I hadn't had any fixed odds bets. In terms of all betting this month (including those not posted on here) it would still have been 3 times as much. Last year, although fixed odds betting was still loss making, it only reduced overall profits by 6%. Conclusion; a very bad month for fixed odds bets and I should be much more selective with that type of betting as I evidently struggle to make it pay. That said, looking at the longer time frame, no need to panic just yet. I don't mind small losses from fixed odds in the context of overall profit because they include "fun" or "interest" bets but I wouldn't want too many months like this one! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 (edited) (Posted in wrong thread!) Edited February 1, 2021 by harry_rag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 yellows in the Portuguese game yesterday so -11 on the spread bet and -22 on the fixed odds bet. 28.4 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Quick update, back into the red after 2 losing footy bets on Wednesday and 2 losing golf bets yesterday, -30 points on the former and -8.8 on the latter. 10.4 points down overall. 2 golf bets still running and a Touchdown scorer bet posted on the Superbowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 out of 3 and +89 points from yesterday's Rugby sells less the 66 point loss on the two golfers' finishing position as both missed the cut. 12.6 points up overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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