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FA Cup Predictions > Jan 8th - 11th


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Chorley v Derby

Chorley have had some FA Cup journey so far given they got a bye into the 1st Round and then went and beat League 1 sides Wigan and Peterborough. Obviously they did me a huge turn against Peterborough when I put them up at 18/1 and they were superb that night. They have been strong in the league as well since until AFC Fylde beat them on Saturday 4-0. I suspect they may have already had one eye on this huge game so I will let them off that effort. Derby are 22nd in the Championship under Rooney although results wise it hasn't been that bad of late losing just 3 of their last 10. Now this game could be off due to Covid, but if they are forced to play the match we know several first team players and staff have it. They could have to put out a reserve side and to be honest it wouldn't have been a surprise if Rooney rested players anyway given staying up will be more important than an FA Cup run. If they are made to play the game Chorley will not start 12/1 and I am going to get in early.

Chorley 1pt @ 12/1 with Betfair (10/1 with Bet365 if taken advantage of the 2 goals up offer)

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Certainly couldn’t stop anyone laying off their stake for a free bet, but you won’t get a better value bet all year. I’m wishing I’d gone heavier and taken some handicaps but there we go. The problem with covid is you can never be certain what is going to happen which made it tricky at that stage to go in massively.

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Certainly is value Darran but always liable to become restricted when you get one as big as this over the bookmakers. Happend with two accounts of mine last year when Macclesfield in the cup had to play a load of young lads after the players went on strike and their opponents if I remember were 7/2 and went off something like 4/6. Now restricted to no bonuses and no BOG and stakes limited to £3.37 and £2.18

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9 hours ago, Ratty said:

Certainly is value Darran but always liable to become restricted when you get one as big as this over the bookmakers. Happend with two accounts of mine last year when Macclesfield in the cup had to play a load of young lads after the players went on strike and their opponents if I remember were 7/2 and went off something like 4/6. Now restricted to no bonuses and no BOG and stakes limited to £3.37 and £2.18

I was also on Kingstonian and didn’t suffer any limit restrictions 

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Aston Villa vs Liverpool

There has been 6 FA CUP meetings between the two with Villa(2Wins),Liverpool(6Wins), and the last time Liverpool won 0-2 at villa park was 31 Jan 1988.

Aston Villa have won the FA CUP 7 times and last reaching the final in 1957 when they beat ManU. However,Smith has not won an FA CUP with villa since taking over. All that said, the host have played a series of FA matches and  last winning 2-0 at Villa park  in 19TH Jan 2016 against Wycombe wanderers.

Liverpool have won the FA CUP 7 times and the last time reaching the final was 2006 when they won against West Ham United. However, Klopp has played 14 FA CUP matches since taking over with 5wins,4Draws and 5 losses. All that said, the visitors have played a series of FA CUP matches and last winning 0-1 away in 18 Jan 2017.

Despite a humiliating defeat at Villa park 7-2 earlier in 2020/21 season, Liverpool are coming to this game psychologically prepared with an objective to rectify their slow start as visitors and also proove their superiority as EPL champions.Additionally,  Klopp has never lifted an FA CUP trophy and will be keen to avoid early exit from the tournament.

Liverpool to win 0-2FT

2 FT(1.75) BTTS NO(2.34) Under 2.5(2.56) Betway

Edited by Gedkip
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Wolverhampton vs Crystal palace

There has been 6 FA CUP meetings between the two teams with Wol(2wins),Draws(2) and CRY(2wins). However, Palace last won 1-4 at Molinouex stadium in 22 March 1995.

Nuno Espirito 15 FA CUP encounters has seen him win 6, 4 draws and 5 Losses. However, the last time wolves won at Molinouex stadium was 7th Jan 2019 when they beat Liverpool 2-1.

Roy Hodgson in charge of Palace has faced 6 FA CUP matches winning 3 and loosing 3. However, the last away victory for Palace came in 19th Jan 2019 when they beat Doncaster 0-2.

Wolves are 4 times FA CUP champions and last won FA CUP in 1960 when they beat Blackburn rovers in the finals while Palace's poor FA CUP record has seen them not win a single trophy in their history.

Wolves to win 2-1 FT

1FT(2.05) BTTS Yes(2.01) Over 2.5(2.25) Betway

 

Edited by Gedkip
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Arsenal vs Newcastle united

There has been 8 FA CUP meetings between the two teams with ARS(4wins),Draws(1) and NEW(3wins). However, magdpies last won 0-2 as visitors in 25 Jan 1902

Mikel Arteta since taking charge of the gunners as encountered  6 FA CUP matches and winning all the six games. However, Arsenal are the defending FA CUP champions, have won it 13 times and will be hoping to kick start the tournament on a high note.

Steve Bruce in charge of magpies has faced 6 FA CUP matches winning 3 , drawing 2 and loosing 1. However, Newcastle scored in all away FA CUP matches although they faced teams in league 1&2.

Arsenal to win 2-0 FT

1FT(1.44) Betway

 

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On 1/7/2021 at 1:11 AM, Darran said:

Good news is that Derby are set to play a team with u18s and those u23s not part of the 1st team squad. We have one hell of a bet now.

It's certainly great odds though bear in mind that Derby do have one of the best youth set ups in the country and therefore, one of the best U18 and U23 sides.

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35 minutes ago, mcsilks said:

It's certainly great odds though bear in mind that Derby do have one of the best youth set ups in the country and therefore, one of the best U18 and U23 sides.

If it’s mainly u18s they’ve got no chance.  The more u23s they have the better the chance but then the best of them are on the 1st team bubble. I’m obviously not counting my chickens and Chorley don’t owe me anything after the last round, but it is a great chance for them.

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18 hours ago, Gedkip said:

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

There has been 6 FA CUP meetings between the two with Villa(2Wins),Liverpool(6Wins), and the last time Liverpool won 0-2 at villa park was 31 Jan 1988.

Aston Villa have won the FA CUP 7 times and last reaching the final in 1957 when they beat ManU. However,Smith has not won an FA CUP with villa since taking over. All that said, the host have played a series of FA matches and  last winning 2-0 at Villa park  in 19TH Jan 2016 against Wycombe wanderers.

Liverpool have won the FA CUP 7 times and the last time reaching the final was 2006 when they won against West Ham United. However, Klopp has played 14 FA CUP matches since taking over with 5wins,4Draws and 5 losses. All that said, the visitors have played a series of FA CUP matches and last winning 0-1 away in 18 Jan 2017.

Despite a humiliating defeat at Villa park 7-2 earlier in 2020/21 season, Liverpool are coming to this game psychologically prepared with an objective to rectify their slow start as visitors and also proove their superiority as EPL champions.Additionally,  Klopp has never lifted an FA CUP trophy and will be keen to avoid early exit from the tournament.

Liverpool to win 0-2FT

2 FT(1.75) BTTS NO(2.34) Under 2.5(2.56) Betway

The news reports are suggesting that a covid-19 outbreak within the Aston Villa squad means they'll play a mainly youthful side. I can imagine Liverpool will do the same but we can all appreciate that Liverpool's youngsters are more capable than Villa's. No disrespect to Villa, of course! I still think your 2-0 tip is a decent shout with Liverpool to win to nil and BTTS no being valid bets. If you're feeling extra risky then backing 2-0 or 3-0 as a correct score has a decent return as well.

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Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff

The FA Cup has always been a favourite competition of mine. After seeing Cardiff involved in so many giant-killings down the years and to personally experience us playing in an FA Cup Final was incredible. Unfortunately, we play fellow Championship side Nottingham Forest in a 12pm GMT kick-off at the City Ground on Saturday afternoon and I'm fairly sure we're going out in the 3rd Round.

Nottingham Forest are starting to show signs of improvement under Chris Hughton. The Tricky Trees are now unbeaten in their last 5 league games and have kept three clean sheets during those matches. It's a run that has moved the club up to 19th in the table and outside the relegation places by 3 points. Jack Colback and Luke Freeman will remain sidelined for this game with Anthony Knockaert also unavailable having returned to parent club Fulham. Centre back Scott McKenna could be in line for a return though. The history books show some bad reading for Forest fans with the club having lost 7 of their last 9 FA Cup matches.

Cardiff are quite simply screwed. Neil Harris has been hit by a mixture of injuries, covid-19 issues, and loan recalls. Captain Sean Morrison remains out injured. He is joined in the physio room by back-up centre backs Sol Bamba and Aden Flint. Jordan Osei-Tutu is self-isolating as per covid-19 regulations. Filip Benkovic has returned to Leicester after his loan deal came to an unceremonious end. What a farce that deal was. So we basically have left back Joe Bennett, centre back Curtis Nelson, and Leandro Bacuna at right back (and he's not even a natural full back!) available. There are suggestions Greg Cunningham might fill in but he's also been heavily linked with a move away so who knows if that'll be completed before kick-off or not. It's a sorry state of affairs with the club down in 15th place in the Championship and with just 1 win from their last 5 league games.

There is good news for Cardiff fans though. Their recent record away to Nottingham Forest is very decent having won their last 6 away games at the City Ground. Harris has also navigated his way past 4 of his last 5 FA Cup 3rd Round matches as a manager. Sadly, I think our miserable season will continue here with a threadbare Cardiff side getting handed a bit of a lesson by an improving Forest side.

Nottingham Forest to Win @ 2.66 with SBK

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.48 with Unibet

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3 hours ago, Darran said:

If it’s mainly u18s they’ve got no chance.  The more u23s they have the better the chance but then the best of them are on the 1st team bubble. I’m obviously not counting my chickens and Chorley don’t owe me anything after the last round, but it is a great chance for them.

What are your thoughts on the Boreham Wood versus Millwall game, @Darran? Millwall haven't quite pushed on under Gary Rowett this season as I thought they might so feel they are potentially vulnerable with a relegation battle over their shoulder in the league. Are Boreham Wood capable of an upset?

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11 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:

The news reports are suggesting that a covid-19 outbreak within the Aston Villa squad means they'll play a mainly youthful side. I can imagine Liverpool will do the same but we can all appreciate that Liverpool's youngsters are more capable than Villa's. No disrespect to Villa, of course! I still think your 2-0 tip is a decent shout with Liverpool to win to nil and BTTS no being valid bets. If you're feeling extra risky then backing 2-0 or 3-0 as a correct score has a decent return as well.

 

Liverpool haven't another game for 9 days, I believe, so Klopp could field a reasonable side that should have far too much for Villa's youngsters. Might be worth a play on the spreads in case things get really scary for the home side. You can buy Liverpool goals at 3.6 or buy their goal rush at 47.

I have read that some of Derby's U23's have trained with the 1st team squad so are also unable to play. If Derby's side are mainly U18's then Chorley should be far too strong for them. Again it may be worth playing the spreads with a buy of Chorley goals at 1.9.

[Prices mentioned are with Spreadex].

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2 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff

The FA Cup has always been a favourite competition of mine. After seeing Cardiff involved in so many giant-killings down the years and to personally experience us playing in an FA Cup Final was incredible. Unfortunately, we play fellow Championship side Nottingham Forest in a 12pm GMT kick-off at the City Ground on Saturday afternoon and I'm fairly sure we're going out in the 3rd Round.

Nottingham Forest are starting to show signs of improvement under Chris Hughton. The Tricky Trees are now unbeaten in their last 5 league games and have kept three clean sheets during those matches. It's a run that has moved the club up to 19th in the table and outside the relegation places by 3 points. Jack Colback and Luke Freeman will remain sidelined for this game with Anthony Knockaert also unavailable having returned to parent club Fulham. Centre back Scott McKenna could be in line for a return though. The history books show some bad reading for Forest fans with the club having lost 7 of their last 9 FA Cup matches.

Cardiff are quite simply screwed. Neil Harris has been hit by a mixture of injuries, covid-19 issues, and loan recalls. Captain Sean Morrison remains out injured. He is joined in the physio room by back-up centre backs Sol Bamba and Aden Flint. Jordan Osei-Tutu is self-isolating as per covid-19 regulations. Filip Benkovic has returned to Leicester after his loan deal came to an unceremonious end. What a farce that deal was. So we basically have left back Joe Bennett, centre back Curtis Nelson, and Leandro Bacuna at right back (and he's not even a natural full back!) available. There are suggestions Greg Cunningham might fill in but he's also been heavily linked with a move away so who knows if that'll be completed before kick-off or not. It's a sorry state of affairs with the club down in 15th place in the Championship and with just 1 win from their last 5 league games.

There is good news for Cardiff fans though. Their recent record away to Nottingham Forest is very decent having won their last 6 away games at the City Ground. Harris has also navigated his way past 4 of his last 5 FA Cup 3rd Round matches as a manager. Sadly, I think our miserable season will continue here with a threadbare Cardiff side getting handed a bit of a lesson by an improving Forest side.

Nottingham Forest to Win @ 2.66 with SBK

Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 2.48 with unibet

Forest win is fine,  BTTS Yes and 3+ goals. Furthermore,Forest last FA cup win as host was against Arsenal when they won 4-2😎

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4 hours ago, Labrador said:

 

Liverpool haven't another game for 9 days, I believe, so Klopp could field a reasonable side that should have far too much for Villa's youngsters. Might be worth a play on the spreads in case things get really scary for the home side. You can buy Liverpool goals at 3.6 or buy their goal rush at 47.

.......................................

[Prices mentioned are with Spreadex].

 

Mane and Salah both starting plus the likes of Henderson and Fabinho have shifted the odds even further. The buy price for Liverpool goals has risen to 5.2 and their goal rush to 70😎

I had backed Shaquiri to score at 2/1 with Sporting Index then found he was only on the bench. Decided to cash out and had nearly 30% profit! 

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Wolverhampton Wanderers V Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace +0.25 AH @ 2.41 Betvictor

Big drift on the Palace price since it was announced that Zaha will be on the bench for the Eagles here. For me this opens the door for a value bet on the away side. Palace still have plenty of players starting that can threaten their opponents while Zaha can potentially join the proceedings later in the game when Wolves will be tired and leggy.

Wolves themselves are not in good form, they have bought well for the future with plenty of good young players but right now they lack a cutting edge in the final third after the sale of Jota and injury to Jimenez.

With the recent price drift, Palace is the value play in my view.

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37 minutes ago, Labrador said:

 

Mane and Salah both starting plus the likes of Henderson and Fabinho have shifted the odds even further. The buy price for Liverpool goals has risen to 5.2 and their goal rush to 70😎

I had backed Shaquiri to score at 2/1 with Sporting Index then found he was only on the bench. Decided to cash out and had nearly 30% profit! 

At one point you could back Villa to score at 9/2 and not to at 1/2. :eek

Personally I think the market has swung a little too far and have had a 1 point buy of Villa goal mins at 12 and a 1 point sell of the time of their first goal at 82.5.

Appreciate the game has started but markets are trade in running and prices will be the same or better now.

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37 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

............................................................

Personally I think the market has swung a little too far and have had a 1 point buy of Villa goal mins at 12 and a 1 point sell of the time of their first goal at 82.5.

............................

 

40th minute equaliser👍 .

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7 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

What are your thoughts on the Boreham Wood versus Millwall game, @Darran? Millwall haven't quite pushed on under Gary Rowett this season as I thought they might so feel they are potentially vulnerable with a relegation battle over their shoulder in the league. Are Boreham Wood capable of an upset?

Yes and I might tip them up. Do want to know what sort of team millwall are likely to play though 

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Even as a Derby fan, I followed Darran's early Chorley tip, so I've got mixed feelings.

The general consensus amongst Derby fans is that it'll be a mainly U18's team. A lot of the U23's are already heavily involved in the first team squad, so will have been affected by the Covid situation. We're certainly not expecting a win, though we do have an excellent youth squad, regularly beating Premiership teams of the same age group.

I see Chorley are odds on now in many places.

Personally I'd call it as a 11/8 (home) - 15/8(away) call. The draw is a very real possibility.

It's certainly not a shoe-in for Chorley. I'm not cashing out though.

I'd offer up Bobby Duncan (Derby) as an 'anytime goal scorer' at 9/4 (Bet365) - remember to tick 'void if doesn't start'

Edited by Shep65
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I have seen it mentioned that it will be 5 U23's and the rest U18's. The more U18's the better for the bet obviously. It was interesting that Villa got to half time level tonight against a strong Liverpool team, but I wonder if Liverpool weren't trying that hard. Chorley are certainly going to be up for it and hopefully they can win although as I said earlier in the thread they owe me nothing after the Peterborough win. Obviously the option to cash out or lay off your stake to have a free bet is there. I have personally just laid off my stake at 2.02 on Betfair. To me it seems the sensible thing in the circumstances as it means I will get paid out at 11/1 not 12/1 which is still massive value.

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