Premier League Predictions > Jan 12th - 14th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Check out the odds and ratings for the midweek Premier League matches that are scheduled for the week after this weekend's FA Cup 3rd Round games. It'll be interesting to see how these teams line up with a full schedule of fixtures coming up the following weekend. Let us know your predictions below! 

[StefanBB]

Burnley vs Manchester United

Burnley currently sits in 16^th spot as they collected the same number of points. They are five points clear from the relegation zone, and a decent form in the past five rounds helped them keep their heads above the water. Sean Dyche’s side celebrated three times during that period and suffered just one defeat. However, the home side’s pain point is its efficiency. Burnley scored only nine goals, and only Sheffield United has a worse record. On the other hand, James Tarkowski and the lads are doing very well in the back. Interestingly, they conceded fewer times than Liverpool or their upcoming rivals. In the last four games at Turf Moor, Burnley booked three vital victories and earned a draw against Everton. However, a very tough challenge is ahead of them, and the hosts need to put another disciplined performance.

It sounded like a fairytale at the beginning of the season, but Manchester United has the chance to take over the top spot. They are leveled up with Liverpool but have one game in hand. The Red Devils enjoy a ten-game unbeatable streak, during which they missed the chance to win only twice. In addition to some hiccups of the major rivals, their excellent run saw them advancing quickly on the table. Although they lost to Manchester City in EFL Cup, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side made it through the next round in FA Cup thanks to a narrow 1:0 win over Watford. Marcus Rashford and the lads are the best visiting team in the league – in seven outings, they celebrated six times and snatched a draw. If they just remain undefeated in this one, the visitors will climb to the top, and we can expect a thrilling title race until the end of the season.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

Despite Burnley’s recent good form, we don’t think Man Utd will miss the opportunity to take the lead on the standings. Therefore, we expect to see the visitors picking another three points on the run.

Goals Market Prediction

Interestingly, we haven’t seen a home win in head-to-head clashes of these to teams since 2015. During that period, only two games went over a 2.5 margin. We don’t think this will be a very efficient game, and we shouldn’t see more than two goals in total.

Manchester United to win @ 1.45

Under 2.5 FT @ 2.10

Correct score 0:2 @ 8.00

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

Manchester City

Although they do not play well in the beginning of this season, they are getting well as time goes by. Now they have been unbeaten for thirteen matches, sitting in the fifth place in the table of the League with 29 points even they play less two games than others.

 

Brighton Hove Albion

They are long for a victory because they have been winless for nine matches. In last game of England FA Cup, they win over Newport County in a shoot-out. It is hard to say whether they have such a bit of luck in the upcoming game.

 

Verdict:

Manchester City have never been defeated by Brighton Hove Albion in the past. The Asian handicap first odd is Manchester City -2, which shows support to them. It is predicted that Blue Moon will get three points in the upcoming game.

 

Manchester City VS Brighton Hove Albion

Pick: Manchester City -2

[StevieDay1983]

Sheffield United vs Newcastle

OK, this might not be the most exciting fixture in the Premier League this week but I'm determined to dig out the first Sheffield United win of the season and I feel this home game against Newcastle in a 6pm GMT kick-off at Bramall Lane on Tuesday night could deliver it. The away side aren't in the best of form and could be there for the taking for the home team.

Sheffield United continue to toil at the foot of the table in the English top flight with just 2 points from their 17 league games so far and they're now 12 points adrift of safety. Chris Wilder has been at the centre of a number of rumours circulating suggesting he tendered his resignation last weekend but it was rejected. The Blades have broken a lot of unwanted records this season. It's a club record of 20 league matches without tasting victory. Losing 15 of their first 17 league games is the joint worst record in the top four divisions of English football. If they lose here it will be a club record of six straight home league defeats in a row. Anybody that knows Sheffield United as a club or that area of Sheffield as a place will know how much they pride their home form. Worryingly, the team is still yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Was the 3-2 win away to Bristol Rovers in the FA Cup 3rd Round the win they needed to kickstart their season?

Newcastle will see this game as a huge opportunity to end this poor run of six matches without a win in all competitions. It's clear the covid-19 outbreak has hit the club hard but the issues were there for all to see even before that problem. Steve Bruce is struggling to get the best out of his players. The team have dropped to 15th in the table and they could find themselves sucked into the relegation dog fight if they don't pick up a win soon. The Magpies put in a valiant display against Arsenal in the FA Cup 3rd Round only losing after extra-time but the winless run goes on. Bruce himself does have a decent record against his former employers Sheffield United winning 7 of his 10 encounters with them.

The head-to-head statistics kind of debunk how I'm feeling about this game with Newcastle winning each of the last five meetings with Sheffield United. Newcastle won both league games by a 5-0 aggregate score-line last season. So why on earth would I feel it's worth backing a shock Sheffield United win? Basically, I'm a football romantic and sometimes you get these games where you feel the gamble is worth the risk. Come on the Blades! This is the one! 

Sheffield United to Win @ 2.58 with SBK

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.60 with RedZone

[thfc]

Spurs against Fulham is now being played Wednesday after some Covid related fixture alterations.  Fulham only got 2 days notice of the game being played, as did spurs, but the difference was spurs were expecting to play midweek (vs Villa) whereas Fulham thought they had the week off so have probably been resting rather than training too extensively.

I'd fancy spurs anyway, but given these circumstances, I am putting a strong bet on spurs half time/full time which you can get for 2.1 with bet365.  Aside from the late notice of the fixture being played, spurs tend to get off to a fast start in fixtures, and then look to hold on to what they have.  Fulham have picked up of late, but needed extra time to get past QPR in the FA cup, and will hardly have prepared for this game, and aren't exactly a prolific goalscoring team.  I think they still have a couple of players out with Covid.  For these reasons, I'm also going to have a bit on spurs to win to nil at 2.45 with BetVictor. 

Kane and Son have both had a rest, as they didn't play in the FA cup, so should be fresh for this one.  I'm sure @harry_rag will find a nice bet on a Kane assist somewhere so will look out for that, as I'm sure he will have plenty of opportunities to score/assist in this one. 

[harry_rag]

57 minutes ago, thfc said:

Kane and Son have both had a rest, as they didn't play in the FA cup, so should be fresh for this one.  I'm sure @harry_rag will find a nice bet on a Kane assist somewhere so will look out for that, as I'm sure he will have plenty of opportunities to score/assist in this one. 

In which case I'll have to credit you with an assist! 

[StevieDay1983]

Manchester City vs Brighton

I think Punters Lounge's very own Harry Kane and Heung-min Son in the form of @harry_rag and @thfc have got the Tottenham versus Fulham game locked down so I'm going to write a quick preview for the Manchester City versus Brighton match that's taking place a little bit earlier on Wednesday night at 6pm GMT from the Etihad Stadium. How many are the hosts going to score is essentially the only question we need to ask, right? 

Manchester City endured a troublesome start to their Premier League campaign with just 3 wins from their opening 8 league matches but it's all coming together for Pep Guardiola's side now. The Citizens are up to 6th and just 7 points behind league leaders and local rivals Manchester United with 2 games in hand. It's 7 league games undefeated for the team and it's been 5 clean sheets during that period. The form of Portuguese starlet Ruben Dias has been a key factor in that defensive solidity. A few players are unavailable for Pep with Sergio Aguero self-isolating after a covid-19 issue and both Aymeric Laporte and Nathan Ake remain sidelined through injury. Scoring goals remains a problem for City with only four teams scoring fewer goals than them this season. However, City to tend to score early in games with 18 of their 24 goals scored this season coming in the first half.

Brighton still just can't find that much-needed league win. Graham Potter will be disappointed his team couldn't even finish off League Two side Newport County in the FA Cup 3rd Round over the weekend over 90 minutes and needed penalties to get the job done. It's now 8 league games without a win for the Seagulls and they have dropped to 17th place and just 3 points outside the relegation zone. The worrying fact is that 18th placed Fulham also have 2 games in hand on them. January is historically not a great month for Brighton in the top flight either. They have failed to win any of their 13 Premier League games played in this month. To make the statistics worse, Brighton are also without a win in all 9 of their Premier League games played on a Wednesday. This could be a struggle!

We don't need to scan through the stats too hard to work out this could be a difficult night for Brighton. Manchester City are just about kicking into gear now. Some people are even now saying they're favourites to win the league. I think they're one clinical striker away from being a really devastating side once again. The defence is helping out with things right now but one goal or less scored in 3 of their last 5 league games shows that if the defence has an off day then they could be there for the taking. I think they should get through this one with relative ease though.

Manchester City to Win to Nil @ 1.83 with SpreadEx

Total Goals Scored Under 3.5 @ 1.71 with Novibet

[harry_rag]

Just a reminder of how my recent descent down the rabbit hole of player stats bets began. Fair to say I went a bit too far down the said orifice and am being a lot more selective now. Put simply, assists, shots on target, headed goals and goals from outside the box bets are generally rank bad value and to be avoided but, having said that, there will occasionally be value to be had. That 8/1 for Kane against City was clearly a great bet win or lose and some of the 3/1 or more for Kane and Son since then have also been solid bets. In most games though, there is unlikely to be any bet worth taking in any of those markets (unless it involves being the bookie and laying or selling).

Let's deal with Kane first; 11 assists in 8 of his 16 league games this season mean he has been hugely profitable to follow this season. Last season though, he only registered 2 assists in 29 games and it was 5 in 27 the season before that. So let's not place too much reliance on his freakish stats for this season. SPIN quote his assist minutes at 20-23 but SX are only going 16-19. That implies that they see him as around a 2/1 shot to assist a goal tonight, maybe slightly more in SX's case. The best price I have seen is 21/10. For me that's no bet. Value if you look just at this season's stats but poor if you consider the bigger picture, and if you take into account the prices we've been seeing lately.

Son, on the other hand, is much more consistent in terms of assists. 5 in 5 of his 16 games this season, 10 in 28 and 6 in 23 if you go back a couple more years. SPIN go 18-21 and SX go 15-18. Let's equate that to around 12/5 for an assist. When I first started looking at prices he was 14/5 with Ladbrokes which definitely caught my eye but was cut to 13/5 by the time I'd done the rounds. Still, for me, a price worth taking, especially with a daily boost applied.

Spurs v Fulham: 25 points on Son to assist a goal at 11/4 with Lads (5/2 or more acceptable).

Just checked before submitting this and he's down to 5/2 now, so best be quick if you are inclined to follow.

[harry_rag]

Man City v Brighton: 10 points on De Bruyne to score from outside the area (or "a screamer" as I'm now referring to these bets for brevity) at 19/2 with Lads

Factoring in all the cautionary notes in the previous post, this is clear and genuine value in my opinion. Next best I've seen is 9/2 and I'd say that's edging towards at least a fair price. I make it that 35% of his career goals are "screamers" (catchy isn't it) and if you apply that to his goal minutes price on the spreads then they make him around a 5/1 shot.

Him assisting a goal can be backed at evens for yes and evens for no and, short as that is, I'd say it looks about right for a home game against Brighton. Before PP trimmed 6/5 "yes" into evens I was considering taking that.

 

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Him assisting a goal can be backed at evens for yes and evens for no and, short as that is, I'd say it looks about right for a home game against Brighton. Before PP trimmed 6/5 "yes" into evens I was considering taking that.

 1-0 at the break and guess who got the assist! Almost any other player would be a good bet at evens not to get an assist; at least I wasn't tempted to bet "no".

[StevieDay1983]

Arsenal vs Crystal Palace

The midweek Premier League action comes to a conclusion tonight when an improving Arsenal look to move on up the table as they take on a faltering Crystal Palace in an 8pm GMT kick-off at the Emirates Stadium. Neither team will be currently satisfied with their league position and failure to win here could lead to further disappointment as the pressure hangs over both managers.

Arsenal had looked in complete turmoil just a matter of weeks ago but it's now 4 wins in a row across all competitions including 3 straight league wins taking the club up to 11th in the table. The Gunners are still 9 points adrift of the European qualification spots but there have been clear marked improvements in the performances of MIkel Arteta's side. Whether it's by chance or method, the problems that dogged the side earlier in the campaign appear to have been addressed. Arteta will welcome the news that duo Thomas Partey and Gabriel could be available to return to first team action. The improved form of striker Alexandre Lacazette has been a highlight with the French striker scoring in 3 consecutive league games. If you're looking for an anytime scorer bet then not only is Lacazette an option but Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored 3 goals in his last 4 appearances against Palace.

Crystal Palace started this season so well but the mood has dramatically changed around the club. The Eagles are down in 13th place after earning just 1 win from their last 7 games in all competitions. It doesn't help that the solitary victory came against bottom-placed Sheffield United and it was far from convincing. Roy Hodgson's side have dire defensive having conceded 14 goals in their last 7 competitive matches. It's now just 3 clean sheets in their last 26 league games since football resumed after the break last summer for covid-19. Talking of anytime scorers in this fixture, midfielder Luka Milivojevic has scored 5 goals in his 6 encounters against Arsenal. Unfortunately, Hodgson has only managed to get 3 of his 18 clashes with Arsenal in the top flight of English football.

It's funny how football can change so quickly. Not long ago I'd have been backing anyone against Arsenal but now I'm on the verge of being willing to back Arsenal against anyone. It helps when they're playing a Crystal Palace side that aren't exactly in a rich vein of form but they have now gone undefeated in their last two league games. They are also unbeaten against Arsenal in their last 4 league meetings. I just feel this is Arsenal's game to lose and Palace will do well to take anything from this game against a team that are coming out of the other side of a poor spell.

Arsenal -1 @ 2.75 with SpreadEx

Anytime Scorer: Alexandre Lacazette @ 2.44 with SBK