harry_rag

thanks for the reply i just read a bit more and google to see if i could find the person who
tried this but no luck guess the forum on the website is not there anymore

Always worth a look at the Racing Post as they do previews from a betting perspective, Sporting Life maybe.
Sometimes I google the match I’m interested in with “preview” added and look at the results. Might be worth you doing that and seeing if you can find a site or two that does previews in a style that suits you.

Good luck with the bets mate but, if this is a glory hunt, just put all the selections in a single thread and update the performance as you go. There’s no need, and it’s not the appropriate use of this section, to post a new thread every day. (And it’s not Tuesday today either!) 

Leeds vs Crystal Palace
The Monday night football game in the Premier League this week is an 8pm GMT kick-off between Leeds and Crystal Palace at Elland Road. This is a game the home side will feel they need to win if they want to consolidate their mid-table league position against a travelling team that come into this match having won back-to-back games against fellow mid-table rivals.
Leeds remain the great entertainers this season but as wonderful as it is to watch from a neutral perspective it's becoming frustrating for the Whites fans to see their team endure such inconsistent results. Marcelo Bielsa's side are in 11th place with 9 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses this season. It's impossible to tell which Leeds will turn up. Will it be the Leeds that beat West Brom 5-0 away or will it be the Leeds that lost 4-1 at home to Leicester? Speaking of 4-1, that's the score-line that Crystal Palace beat Leeds by in their meeting at Selhurst Park earlier this season. Recent form isn't very good with Leeds losing 4 of their last 6 matches. The team has also failed to earn a clean sheet in this calendar year so far. Interestingly, Leeds games have averaged 3.52 goals per game in the league.
Crystal Palace will understandably feel like this is a game they can win after their convincing victory over Leeds in their last league encounter. Roy Hodgson's teams have won their last 2 league games and currently sit in 13th place. The team will have to handle this game without leading man Wilfried Zaha but the form of Eberechi Eze in recent games should give them hope. The absence of Zaha will be a concern though given the fact they have lost 16 of the last 18 games he's not played in. The Eagles are without a win in their last 8 league games played on a Monday night. They have also lost on each of their last 5 visits to Elland Road across all competitions.
I think if Zaha was playing in this game then I'd have a confidence in Crystal Palace to get the job done. Unfortunately, he's missing after picking up that hamstring injury against Newcastle and I think this could cause problems. Leeds are a relentless force and with the home side winning 8 of the last 10 meetings in this fixture it feels like Leeds are due some revenge.
Leeds to Win @ 1.94 with Novibet
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.73 with SBK

i like Whoscored 

3 corners each so a winning bet with either line.
12 wins and 1 push from 18 bets. +6.225 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 35.57%, +5.725 points to level stakes with an ROI of 31.81%.

Just to add a bit of fun! Odds are PP (Saturday).
Over 2.5 Passers @ 13/8
Opening KO  NOT a touchback @ 11/5
Fumble in first half @ 11/10; Fumble in second half @ 5/4
Both teams get a 33+ yd FG @ 5/6
Still no score at 6.00 minutes @ Evens
 

This week’s selection (for what it’s worth) is Kilmarnock +2 Asian handicap corners v St Mirren, 1pt at 9-10 with 365.
As the offer is now +1.5 corners at 1.8 I’m keeping the £2.49 or so I’m usually allowed in my pocket. 

Jon Rahm  13/2  8 places Hills - Scoring average here is 68.25, played here 5 times worse place was T16 
Sungjae Im 33/1  8 places Hills - Been playing well this season, played here twice with two top 15 finishes 
Daniel Berger 20/1   8 places Hills - Was 9th here last year, has had 4 top 25 from 6 starts this season 

Thanks, yes I will post the current corner count so far going forward. I tried too many bets in a short space so thanks for the advice

I disagree with that comment, nothing more complicated or random about betting corners than goals in my opinion. Either you've got an edge versus the odds or you haven't but, if anything, I'd say there's more chance of finding value in the more peripheral corners market than one like goals which is saturated.
@BettingNoob21 I'd say don't forget the initial "no rush, patience is key comment" as the volume of bets contradicts that to an extent, for me at least. With the corners bets, any chance you could post the number so far (or are you exclusively betting on there being one more corner in the game)?
Anyway, good luck with the next attempt.

If you make an error when posting your bet could you please correct it with another post below, then it doesn't look 'iffy'.
 
 

Wolves v Arsenal: 15 points each on Saka and Smith-Rowe to assist a goal at 23/5 with Uni
2 players who are on my "whitelist" for this market, both of whom I've won on.

I disagree with that comment, nothing more complicated or random about betting corners than goals in my opinion. Either you've got an edge versus the odds or you haven't but, if anything, I'd say there's more chance of finding value in the more peripheral corners market than one like goals which is saturated.
@BettingNoob21 I'd say don't forget the initial "no rush, patience is key comment" as the volume of bets contradicts that to an extent, for me at least. With the corners bets, any chance you could post the number so far (or are you exclusively betting on there being one more corner in the game)?
Anyway, good luck with the next attempt.

I disagree with that comment, nothing more complicated or random about betting corners than goals in my opinion. Either you've got an edge versus the odds or you haven't but, if anything, I'd say there's more chance of finding value in the more peripheral corners market than one like goals which is saturated.
@BettingNoob21 I'd say don't forget the initial "no rush, patience is key comment" as the volume of bets contradicts that to an extent, for me at least. With the corners bets, any chance you could post the number so far (or are you exclusively betting on there being one more corner in the game)?
Anyway, good luck with the next attempt.

Sporting vs Benfica
Sporting is waiting for almost two decades to lift the title, and it seems they have never been closer. They won the Primeira Liga last time back in 2002, and during that period, Benfica and Porto were much more successful. However, the Lions are enjoying an excellent campaign in the domestic championship. They are the only undefeated team in the competition, and Sporting missed the chance to win only three times. Ruben Amorim’s side is four points ahead of Porto and six clear from their upcoming rivals. Sebastian Coates and the lads are excellent in the back. Their rock-solid defense conceded only nine goals so far. On the other hand, Pedro Goncalves is clinical in front of the oppositions’ net with 12 goals scored in 13 appearances. Sporting allowed only two points to their visitors this season, making them one of the league’s best hosts. Three points from this match would increase their chances of winning the title, although we are halfway through the season.
Benfica sits in 3rd spot, being six points behind Sporting. The Eagles spilled too many points in draws lately. The visitors booked three draws in the last four rounds, which saw them declining on the table. Haris Seferovic and the lads are doing very well in the final third, while Benfica could have been tighter in the back. Jorge Jesus’s side conceded 15 times, which is unusual for the team of that quality. Benfica managed to snatch a point in Porto two rounds ago but didn’t capitalize that against Nacional at home. Their away performances haven’t been too confident as the visitors celebrated only twice in the last five outings. Jorge Jesus faces severe selection issues since some players have been tested positive for Covid-19. First-choice goalkeeper Odisseas Vlachodimos, defenders Nicolas Otamendi and Nuno Tavares, and striker Everton will be sidelined for this clash.
Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction
These derbies are always hard to predict, and anything can happen in this one as well. Sporting is full of confidence, while Benfica has had a few hiccups lately. The visitors cannot count on some vital players, and the home side can take advantage of that to win the clash.
Goals Market Prediction
Their matches at Estadio Jose Alvalade have been pretty tight lately. Since Sporting is very hard to crack in the back, this game might stay under a 2.5 margin.
Sporting to win @ 2.60
Under 2.5 FT @ 1.80
Correct score 1:0 @ 8.50

No joy last night. Spurs v Liverpool tonight and there's one bet that won't come as much of a surprise to anyone who notices my incoherent ramblings on here!
20 points on Son to assist a goal at 9/2 with Lads (boosted from 17/4)
As I've observed before, Kane may be flattered by his assist stats this season but Son is a consistent provider and if I could only follow one player in this market (subject to price holding up) it would be him.

No joy last night. Spurs v Liverpool tonight and there's one bet that won't come as much of a surprise to anyone who notices my incoherent ramblings on here!
20 points on Son to assist a goal at 9/2 with Lads (boosted from 17/4)
As I've observed before, Kane may be flattered by his assist stats this season but Son is a consistent provider and if I could only follow one player in this market (subject to price holding up) it would be him.

Tottenham vs Liverpool
The big game in the Premier League for these midweek fixtures is the clash on Thursday night between Tottenham and Liverpool in an 8pm GMT kick-off at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Both of these teams were looking like solid title contenders earlier in the season but different dips in form have seen them drop off the pace as their rivals have taken full advantage. Will either side prevail victorious here or will they cancel each other out?
Tottenham come into this game in 6th place but only 2 points outside the Champions League qualification spaces. It's been a turbulent festive and new year period for Jose Mourinho's men but they appear to be steadying the ship slightly. It's now 8 matches without defeat across all competitions as the team seems to be re-discovering some early season form. This game poses a defensive problem that Mourinho must solve with both Ben Davies and Sergio Reguilon ruled out through injury. Matt Doherty is also a doubt. One statistic that is an impressive one for Mourinho is that he's unbeaten in 6 home Premier League games against the reigning champions. However, his record against Jurgen Klopp isn't quite as positive having only won 2 of his 12 encounters with the German.
Liverpool are in danger of letting this season get away from them. Klopp has started to appear to lose his cool on more than a couple of occasions and that's very unlike the composed Reds manager. The team is down to 5th in the table having failed to win any of their last 5 league matches. A combination of injuries and players hitting a bad run of form has hit the side all at once. An example of that is Mohamed Salah who has scored 13 league goals this season but hasn't hit the back of the net during 2021 in the league. The club's premature exit from the FA Cup in the 4th Round this past weekend to rivals Manchester United has also added further pressure to the club's campaign. Away form remains a big concern for Liverpool with the team having only won 1 of their last 8 away league matches. On a more optimistic note, if you're looking for an anytime scorer bet then Roberto Firmino has scored in 4 of his last 5 appearances against Tottenham.
This is a big match for both of these sides. A victory could propel them right back into the title hunt. I mean, personally, I think it's slowly turning out to be Manchester City's to lose but who knows. If you're still in the fight come "twitchy bum time", as Sir Alex Ferguson used to call the Easter period, then you stand every chance. I'm just not sure either team has a) the capabilities to go on and win this game or b) have the desire to risk losing in order to get the win. A draw will suit both teams and I think that's the most likely outcome.
Draw @ 3.90 with Novibet
BTTS @ 1.64 with SBK

Burnley v Aston Villa:
12 points on McGinn to get an assist at 13/2 with Lads (also 6/1 Uni)
8 points on Watkins to score a header at 10/1 PP or Hills
12 points on Watkins to have a header on target at 9/2 Sky Bet (also 4/1 with PP)
I think I'm succeeding in my attempt to be more selective with these bets, looking at less games and in more depth, and setting my own idea of a minimum price before I go "shopping".
I'd put Grealish and McGinn roughly on a par for assists despite the former having twice as many (8) as McGinn this season. I'd have wanted at least 4s for either of them but, unsurprisingly, could get nowhere near that for star man Grealish. McGinn worth a punt at 6/1 or more for me.
I had 8/1 as roughly fair for a Watkins header so 10/1 seems reasonable enough. If you're willing to accept that the 10/1 for a headed goal is ok then 9/2 for an attempt being on target seems even better. He's had 17 headed shots this season in as many League games, 3 resulting in goals. presumably some of the remaining 14 were on target!

No joy last night. Spurs v Liverpool tonight and there's one bet that won't come as much of a surprise to anyone who notices my incoherent ramblings on here!
20 points on Son to assist a goal at 9/2 with Lads (boosted from 17/4)
As I've observed before, Kane may be flattered by his assist stats this season but Son is a consistent provider and if I could only follow one player in this market (subject to price holding up) it would be him.

Brighton vs Fulham
It's great to see everyone contributing and covering so many different games from these midweek fixtures. Some great tips being posted so far so let's hope the results fall in our favour tonight as the second of three nights of top flight action take place. I'm going to cover the relegation battle between Brighton and Fulham that's set to kick-off at 7:30pm GMT on Wednesday night from the Amex Stadium.
Brighton will come into this game boosted by a huge 1-0 win away to an erratic Leeds in their last league game. Graham Potter's side picked up their first league win after a winless run of 9 matches. The 3 points picked up in that victory has moved the club 5 points clear of the relegation zone and that gap will be extended with a win here against 18th placed Fulham. The Seagulls are still yet to win a league game at home this season though with it now being 13 league matches at home since they last tasted victory. A win here would only be the second time under Potter's management that Brighton will have won back-to-back league games. To add to the pessimism, Brighton have never won a Premier League game on a Wednesday having drawn 5 and lost 5.
Fulham had looked to be turning a corner as they ground out draws against superior opposition but Scott Parker's side failed to pick up a win in any of those matches. The Cottagers are down in 18th place still and 5 points adrift of safety. It's also now 8 league games without a win and the 3-0 loss at home to Burnley in the FA Cup 4th Round has seen more defeat thrown at them. That has extended their losing run in all competitions to three matches. Defence remains a problem for Parker with only West Brom and Sheffield United keeping fewer clean sheets than the London club this season.
Is this the game where experience at this level really tells? This is a huge match for both of these teams. We could either see Brighton pull away from the relegation zone and inflict a psychological blow to their opponents or we could see Fulham claw their way back out of trouble. Or the teams could nullify each other in a totally uninspiring affair. I've praised Brighton a lot this season and feel a good run of results is always just around the corner. I know a lot of pundits and tipsters are torn between the home win and draw. I think Brighton's home form is the sticking point for me so I'm going to go for a draw.
Draw @ 3.50 with RedZone
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.74 with SBK

Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool
Tottenham has been in fine form lately, as they haven’t lost eight times in a row. During that unbeatable run, they missed the chance to win only twice. After failing to a 2:0 defeat against Leicester City, the Spurs tied four matches without losing in Premier League. Jose Mourinho’s side sits in 6th place, but they are only two points behind West Ham and have two games in hand. Harry Kane and the lads have been pretty productive lately, and they improved their attacking work.On the other hand, Tottenham failed to keep its net intact three times in a row, and they need to tighten up the defense a bit. The home side had some troubles when playing at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as they booked only four victories on nine occasions. If they want to keep challenging one of the Champions League spots, the hosts need to stop spilling points at their ground.
Liverpool is on a very bad run lately, as they celebrated just one win in the last seven matches in all competitions. That victory came against the youthful Aston Villa in the FA Cup, who had selection troubles due to a Covid-19 pandemic. The latest kick in the teeth came against Manchester United. The Red Devils booked a 3:2 win and eliminated Liverpool from the world’s oldest football competition. Mo Salah and the lads slipped to the 5th position, and they are only one point ahead of their upcoming rivals. The Reds have been facing issues in converting their chances into goals. Liverpool failed to score in the previous four Premier League fixtures. They are currently seven points behind Manchester City, and if they don’t get back on the winning track urgently, Liverpool will lose the chance of defending the title.
Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction
Tottenham enjoys a much better form compared to its rivals. They will also search for revenge after losing at Anfield in the stoppage time in December. Therefore, we believe the home side will get at least a point from this clash.
Goals Market Prediction
Jose Mourinho will definitely try to exploit Liverpool’s lack of efficiency and provide them some extra trouble. That’s being said, we expect to see a very tight clash that won’t go over a 2.5 margin.
Tottenham Hotspur AH +0 @ 2.50
Under 2.5 FT @ 2.10
Correct score 1:0 @ 13.00

Burnley v Aston Villa:
Although I'd prefer a more card-happy referee than Paul Tierney I think he may be drawn to a couple of Villa old boys who did not really get a decent crack of the whip at Villa Park and may still have an extra bit of desire against the club that did not require their services.
Burnley right-back Matthew Lowton has only received 2 yellows this season but at times he will be against the very mobile Ollie Watkins not to mention Jack Grealish playing wide left for parts of the game.
In midfield Ashley Westwood has received 5 yellows this season. He is fairly combative and will have to get to grips with the likes of McGinn, Luiz and Grealish so it could get pretty tasty.
Matthew Lowton to be carded 4/1 (Bet 365)
Ashley Westwood to be carded 100/30 (skybet)

I love this