harry_rag

How about San Marino bookings? Their last 8 competitive games have seen them collect 35, 50, 50, 20, 40, 30, 20 and 20 bookings points. Today's referee is Russian Kirill Levnikov. Frequently referees differ between their domestic and international duties (e.g. card-happy Spanish refs seem to ease up considerably on the international stage). However,  Comrade Levnikov has dished out 30 yellows and 6 reds in his last 4 international games - admittedly 2 and U19 level and 1 at U21 level.
My perception is that San Marino can be almost as agricultural as Andorra - especially late in games when they are tired and frustrated. If they pick up their minimum 2 yellows, then a buy of San Marino bookings at 21 with Sporting Index is virtually covered. However, there is good potential for more. On the fixed odds market there could be value in skybet's 9/4 about over 29 San Marino bookings points.

Sorry for spamming, didnt read the rules good enough
Here is a sheet with the profit, staking and winnings from the different staking plans. Starting with 1 unit.

Profit courtesy of the Vlahovic goal but I wish I’d backed Griezmann and De Bruyne to score rather than assist.

Bet you're glad you didn't have a night off! 

I usually end up repeating the mantra "should've had a night off" when Internationals come round but these have drawn me in,
France v Ukraine: 10 points on a Griezmann assist at 10/3 PP
Belgium v Wales: 15 points on a De Bruyne assist at 11/5 Lads and 5 points on Lukaku to score and 2+ cards each team at 18/1 WH
Serbia v Ireland: 15 points on Vlahovic to score at 11/4 with 365

I didn't change the automatic bet on my betfair API, so when I clicked it bet £30.
It's a mistake this time.
But the question arises, as I have been betting badly for the last few days 

No thanks. You should post the selections on here (like the rest of us do) or it just looks like you’re using the site for spamming purposes rather than having a desire to contribute,
Out of interest, what would the profit have been to level stakes, i.e. if you divided the total amount you staked equally across all the selections. I’m suspicious of the staking approach and interested to know if it added any value.

From his stats, 45 won, 83 lost, average odds 3.00, it is around 7 units profit at 1 unit stakes, ROI 5.5%. It is not bad result, but sample is way toooooo small to say if he really cracked something or it's just beginner's luck. Another 9 matches losing streak would have wiped that entire profit.

Sort of, but with it being International week there's been nothing yesterday or today so I've done some number crunching now. First thing to point out is that the experiment has thrown up 254 bets in 18 days which gives an average of around 14 bets per day. I'd consider that too many selections in the context of how many bets I'm placing already. Obviously weekends are the busier time but I've averaged 3.7 sells per day so far this year and my busiest quarter of last year only saw an average of 6.9. An extra 14 bets per day isn't really viable so I'd have to decide on a higher minimum price if I was going to go live with these bets. That's no great hardship as I wouldn't sell in any other market at a price anywhere near as low as 11. The old mantra is buy low and sell high and that makes a lot of sense. It takes a lot of sells at 11 to recover a triple digit loss!
The following table shows how many bets there were at each price from 11 up to 20+, the total return and the average return. It also shows the equivalent figures for each price if it became the minimum, e.g. there would only have been 187 bets (73.62%) if the minimum was just raised to 12 and the number of bets would more than half if the minimum was raised to 14.
To tie the first phase off neatly, I'll carry on with the current basis until exactly 300 bets (which gives the opportunity to see how Internationals perform in terms of selections and results). At that point I'll decide what to do in terms of continued posting and staking with real money.
Price Bets P/L Ave P/L Bets Min P/L Min % Min Ave P/L Min 11 67 20 0.30         12 48 277 5.77 187 996 73.62% 5.33 13 28 364 13.00 139 719 54.72% 5.17 14 23 105 4.57 111 355 43.70% 3.20 15 21 -116 -5.52 88 250 34.65% 2.84 16 14 24 1.71 67 366 26.38% 5.46 17 11 124 11.27 53 342 20.87% 6.45 18 13 76 5.85 42 218 16.54% 5.19 19 8 54 6.75 29 142 11.42% 4.90 20 6 12 2.00 21 88 8.27% 4.19 >20 15 76 5.07 15 76 5.91% 5.07 Total 254 1016 4.00        

 

No thanks. You should post the selections on here (like the rest of us do) or it just looks like you’re using the site for spamming purposes rather than having a desire to contribute,
Out of interest, what would the profit have been to level stakes, i.e. if you divided the total amount you staked equally across all the selections. I’m suspicious of the staking approach and interested to know if it added any value.

No thanks. You should post the selections on here (like the rest of us do) or it just looks like you’re using the site for spamming purposes rather than having a desire to contribute,
Out of interest, what would the profit have been to level stakes, i.e. if you divided the total amount you staked equally across all the selections. I’m suspicious of the staking approach and interested to know if it added any value.

No thanks. You should post the selections on here (like the rest of us do) or it just looks like you’re using the site for spamming purposes rather than having a desire to contribute,
Out of interest, what would the profit have been to level stakes, i.e. if you divided the total amount you staked equally across all the selections. I’m suspicious of the staking approach and interested to know if it added any value.

No thanks. You should post the selections on here (like the rest of us do) or it just looks like you’re using the site for spamming purposes rather than having a desire to contribute,
Out of interest, what would the profit have been to level stakes, i.e. if you divided the total amount you staked equally across all the selections. I’m suspicious of the staking approach and interested to know if it added any value.

The true test of a system is whether it makes a profit at level stakes. A staking plan will not make an unprofitable system profitable.

Yesterday there were 23 winners from 28 bets for a profit of 129 points.
Overall that makes it 207 winners from 254 bets (81.5%) for a return of +1016 points. ROI = 28.26% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 3595.)
I started this on the 4th of March so if I carry on till Wednesday there will be 3 weeks' worth of data. My immediate thought is that there would be too many bets to place in reality (e.g. around 90 per week) so I'll be looking at number of bets and returns if the minimum was increased from 11. Overall though, it's exceeded my expectations even though I thought it would be profitable.

I'll update in two stages, firstly, how things stood after Saturday's bets.
There were 20 winners from 30 bets for a loss of 103 points.
Overall that makes it 184 winners from 226 bets (81.42%) for a return of +887 points. ROI = 27.82% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 3188.)
The first 200 bets returned a profit of 1041 points which considerably exceeds my estimate of 382 points made after 108 bets! Bearing in mind that the profit from the first 100 bets was only 160 points, that gives you an idea of how volatile these bets are, and how small a sample size this is. That said, I think it's more a question of not knowing how profitable it will be in the long terms rather than not knowing whether or not it will be profitable!
I'll now update yesterday's selections.

This week’s selection is Morecambe +1.5 Asian handicap corners v Harrogate, 1pt at 2.0 with 365. Already into 1.85.

A losing bet this week.
15 wins and 1 push from 23 bets. +6.975 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 31%, +6.475 points to level stakes with  an ROI of 28.15%

A 12 point profit if my grade C O-Level maths is up to scratch, and the right choice of market as multis would've shown a loss. I was on the wrong end of Johnston's try minutes in that game.

Terrible weather forecast for Sydney on Saturday where 2 games are set to take place. First is Bulldogs v Panthers at Bankwest Stadium (3pm kick off - Aussie time), and the second is Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs at Lottoland (5.30 pm kick off).
Based on the reports of performances so far and previews from Down Under I prefer to bet on the 2nd game which should witness a heavy pitch and heavy rain throughout the entire game. Sea Eagles were very poor last week, and Rabbitohs are widely tipped. However, both tams made a losing start but Rabbitohs improved markedly in the second half after an opening period of much dropped ball and knock-ons.
The Aussie pundits expect a low-scoring affair but with some prospect that Rabbitohs could cut loose despite the weather. I could sell multi points at 344, but I'm going with the slightly less potentially profitable option with a sell of cross points.
Manly Sea Eagles v South Sydney Rabbitohs: SELL match cross-points at 324 (SX)
 

This week’s selection is Morecambe +1.5 Asian handicap corners v Harrogate, 1pt at 2.0 with 365. Already into 1.85.

14 winners from 15 bets yesterday, Tadic (20) being the only loser. A profit of 190 points.
Overall that makes it 156 winners from 187 bets (83.42%) for a return of +906 points. ROI = 33.89% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 2673.)
Estimated return after 200 bets: +933 points.

Manchester City vs Borussia Monchengladbach
The penultimate night of action in the Champions League last 16 second leg phase gives us a double header of matches with Manchester City taking on Borussia Monchengladbach and Real Madrid versus Atalanta. Both games kick-off at 8pm GMT but I'm going to focus my attention on the game taking place at the Puskas Arena between the Premier League leaders and the Bundesliga underdogs.
Manchester City are one of the in-form sides in European football right now. Pep Guardiola's men have only lost 1 of their last 31 matches across all competitions. The Citizens have also won 10 of their last 11 fixtures in this competition as the home team. The fact they have scored an average of 3.5 goals per game during that run shows how lethal a side they have become on home territory in Europe. This may not be at the Etihad Stadium but we can expect a similar level of attacking intent from City. The team hold a 2-0 aggregate lead from the first leg and given that they have won 4 and drawn 1 of their 5 meetings with Borussia Monchengladbach then you can understand why they might feel confident heading into this game.
Borussia Monchengladbach face an uphill battle to come back from this 2-0 first leg deficit. Marco Rose has come out and said that his team need something that is "more than extraordinary" to save this tie. Die Fohlen are in 10th place in the Bundesliga and qualification for European competition next season is looking in doubt. Questions have to be asked over how Rose's future appointment as Borussia Dortmund head coach must be affecting the team psychologically. It's not an ideal situation. The club have lost their last 4 league games and have also lost their previous 3 matches in Europe. It's awful form and suggests that not all is well within the camp. The German side have never defeated an English side as the away team in this competition.
You have to say that things are looking pretty grim for Borussia Monchengladbach heading into this game. They stand on the brink of elimination from this competition, they have exited the DfB Pokal, and their league form has gone down the toilet. How can we expect anything other than another solid Manchester City win? It's just a case of determining how many City are going to win by and if they'll keep a clean sheet or not.
Manchester City -1 @ 1.70 with Sporting Index
Manchester City HT/FT @ 1.80 with SBK

6 winners from 8 bets yesterday, Messi (53) and Pedri (35) being the losers. A profit of 49 points.
Overall that makes it 134 winners from 163 bets (82.21%) for a return of +625 points. ROI = 26.84% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 2329.)
Estimated return after 200 bets: +703 points.