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Player Assist Minutes - Sell Experiment


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Bit of a "scrap pad" thread to test a theory.

I think we all know what a goal is (!?!) and I'll take it as read we're familiar with the concept of an assist. Not every goal has an assist credited to it (own goals, penalties, rebounds etc.).

A simple and not wholly unreasonable premise is that betting on players to get an assist is a mug's game. This will be largely true as a lot of the punters will be ill informed and the odds will be rank bad value for the majority of bets. There may be exceptions where some consistent and prolific players (Son, De Bruyne) are on offer at value prices.

The flip side of that assumption is that betting on players NOT to get an assist could be a profitable endeavour. Few, if any, fixed odds firms offer the option but we can sell a player's assist minutes on the spreads. As per goal minutes, if you sold a player's assist minutes at 20 and he didn't register an assist you'd win 20 x your stake. If he assisted a goal after 50 minutes you'd lose 30 x stake and if he added a second in the last minute you'd lose 120 x stake.

I'm going to track how you'd do selling a sample of 100 players at prices >10. My estimate is that this will show a profit. I'll guess at a 400 point return to 1 point stakes. I'll track when time allows till I get to 100. First selections to follow shortly.

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Over the weekend there were 16 winners from 19 bets for a profit of 159 points. There was 1 other player who made up at higher than zero but still showed a 1 point profit. I noticed a Spanish and a Da

7 winners from 10 bets yesterday (only 3 of the listed Italian players started) for a profit of 76 points. Overall that makes it 275 winners from 340 bets (80.88%) for a return of +1541 points. R

Phase two, will carry on to at least 400 but with the minimum price set at 15. If nothing else, it should thin the numbers out enough to make this endeavour a little less time consuming!  Croatia

Opening batch of sells, early prices but void if not starting.

Rodriguez (Everton) at 18

Ziyech (Chelsea) at 12

Sanchez (Inter) at 23

Eriksen (Inter) at 18

Hakimi (Inter) at 15

Barella (Inter) at 14

Young (Inter) at 13

Brozovic (Inter) at 13

Vidal (Inter) at 11

Perisic (Inter) at 11

Ozil (Fenerbahce) at 17

A bit of a freakish haul from the Inter game, guessing they won't all start.

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25 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I'm going to track how you'd do selling a sample of 100 players at prices >10. My estimate is that this will show a profit. I'll guess at a 400 point return to 1 point stakes. I'll track when time allows till I get to 100. First selections to follow shortly.

Better revise that downwards, I'll estimate a return of +250 points. Minimum price is much lower than anything I currently sell with real money.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/4/2021 at 3:43 PM, harry_rag said:

Opening batch of sells, early prices but void if not starting.

Rodriguez (Everton) at 18

Digne (Everton) at 13 :ok 0

Ziyech (Chelsea) at 12 :ok 0

Sanchez (Inter) at 23 :ok 0

Eriksen (Inter) at 18 :ok 0

Hakimi (Inter) at 15 :ok 0

Barella (Inter) at 14 :ok 0

Young (Inter) at 13 

Brozovic (Inter) at 13 :ok 0

Vidal (Inter) at 11

Perisic (Inter) at 11 :ok 0

Ozil (Fenerbahce) at 17 :ok 0

A bit of a freakish haul from the Inter game, guessing they won't all start.

9 winners from 9 bets for a return of +136 points. Revised estimated return after 100 bets = +338 points.

Beginners luck perhaps not to have hit a loser out of 9 bets. Still paper trades only.

Edited by harry_rag
9 winners not 0!
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Probably the final tranche (if that's a word)!

Ghezzal (Besiktas) at 23

Llajic (Besiktas) at 19

Aboubakar (Besiktas) at 13

Rosier (Besiktas) at 11

Muller (B Munich) at 14

Sane (B Munich) at 12

Kimmich (B Munich) at 11

De Paul (Udinese) at 15

Chiesa (Juventus) at 16

Morata (Juventus) at 15

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Probably the final tranche (if that's a word)!

Prices up now for a couple of French cup games!

Slimani (Lyon) at 17

Di Maria (PSG) at 25

Mbappe (PSG) at 23

Neymar (PSG) at 20

Sarabia (PSG) at 18

Icardia (PSG) at 15

Draxler (PSG) at 15

Paredes (PSG) at 15

Rafinha (PSG) at 11

I'm guessing not all of the PSG players will start!

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Posted (edited)

34 players posted yesterday, there were 8 non-runners (void bets), 8 players who got at least one assist (one of which was still a winning bet due to the time of the assist) and 18 players who didn't get one so made up at zero.

The loss on the players who got assists was 279 points (408 - 129) and the profit from those who didn't was 247 points so a net loss of 32 points from 26 bets.

Overall that makes it 28 winners from 35 bets for a return of +104 points. Revised estimated return after 100 bets = +246 points. ROI = 20.31% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 512.)

Messi was the main negative, making up at 113 and De Paul made up at 90. 57 was the next highest total.

Edited by harry_rag
35 bets, not 43
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In my haste last night I posted the following in the wrong thread. Update to follow shortly.

Kane (Spurs) at 15

Son (Spurs) at 14

All for Napoli.

Mertens at 18

Insigne at 15

Politano at 12

Zielinski at 11

Ruiz at 11

 

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Posted (edited)

6 out of 20 players registered assists yesterday but one was still a winning bet. Kane, Son and Zielinski got 5 assists between them and made up at an aggregate of 223.

Total sell price was 286 and total make ups were 309 so a net loss of 23 points from 20 bets.

Overall that makes it 43 winners from 55 bets for a return of +81 points. Revised estimated return after 100 bets = +173 points. ROI = 10.15% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 798.)

Edited by harry_rag
55 bets, not 63
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Early prices from 5 games today.

Chelsea v Everton: Ziyech at 18 and Havertz at 11

West Ham v Leeds: Benrahma at 11 and Raphina at 14

Konyaspor v Fenerbahce: Kadioglu at 11 and Sosa at 11

Inter v Atalanta: Sanchez at 13, Barella at 12, Brozovic at 12 and Eriksen at 11

Nice v Monaco: Ben Yedder at 14, Volland at 12 and Golovin at 12

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Posted (edited)
On 3/8/2021 at 1:27 PM, harry_rag said:

Early prices from 5 games today.

Chelsea v Everton: Ziyech at 18 and Havertz at 11 :ok 0

West Ham v Leeds: Benrahma at 11 and Raphina at 14 :ok:ok 0 and 0

Konyaspor v Fenerbahce: Kadioglu at 11 and Sosa at 11 :ok 0

Inter v Atalanta: Sanchez at 13, Barella at 12, Brozovic at 12 and Eriksen at 11 :ok:ok 0 and 0

Nice v Monaco: Ben Yedder at 14, Volland at 12 and Golovin at 12 :ok 0

A clean sweep from the 7 bets that were "runners" for a profit of 83 points.

Overall that makes it 50 winners from 62 bets for a return of +164 points. Revised estimated return after 100 bets = +239 points. ROI = 18.62% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 881.)

Edited by harry_rag
62 bets, not 70. ROI corrected
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Posted (edited)
On 3/9/2021 at 3:52 PM, harry_rag said:

Juventus v Porto: Morata at 18, Chiesa at 18, Cuadrado at 14 and Ronaldo at 11 :ok:ok:eyes:eyes 0, 0, 63 and 49

 

On 3/9/2021 at 7:00 PM, harry_rag said:

Reus at 11 :eyes 35

2 winners from the 5 bets last night for a 75 point loss.

Overall that makes it 52 winners from 67 bets for a return of +89 points. Revised estimated return after 100 bets = +151 points. ROI = 9.34% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 953.)

Edited by harry_rag
67 bets, not 75
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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Man City v Southampton:

De Bruyne at 26 :ok 0

Foden at 15 :eyes 114

Silva at 15 :ok 0

Sterling at 14

PSG v Barca:

Di Maria at 15

Mbappe at 13 :ok 0

Messi at 19 :ok 0

Griezmann at 11 :ok 0

5 from 6 for a 15 point loss.

Overall that makes it 57 winners from 73 bets for a return of +74 points. Revised estimated return after 100 bets = +121 points. ROI = 7.03% (Profit as a % of total sell price of 1052.)

Edited by harry_rag
73 bets, not 81
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