harry_rag

if you go to a betting shop and friendly with staff ask them after the days racing and if no one took it already they might let you have it worth a try

Fantastic pick ? Easterby's  (all of them ) are deffo worth a watching  
Great that you picked a 40/1 winner  but here on PL we have a  bit of tradition with  big priced winners  over the years and  they still come   thick and fast. Been some great tippers of the  years past and present. At  one  stage  i ran a thread  highlighting  25/1 plus winners there was loads  that where posted on the daily threads  and  a few of us ended up tipping up  100/1 + shots.  Indeed the daily threads are  the best place  to put your tips  so others  can see and follow if they so wish?
 
 
 

Staking is an interesting topic of discussion that's for sure. From my perspective, I can't get on with level staking because by definition it suggests all bets are equal, when it's probably reasonable to suggest one even money bet is a better proposition than another and also for the reason @harry_rag suggests which is the counterintuitive nature of staking the same amount on an even money shot as something that's ten to one - clearly the ten to one shot is far less likely to land and so you're more likely to lose your stake, whilst the same stake at shorter odds is more likely to win but also return a smaller amount.
I can't get on with level returns either, because although they mitigate against the higher probability of losing your stake the higher the odds go, again they treat all bets as equal in their utility. Kelly staking on the other hand, although difficult to implement, makes the most intuitive sense. It balances the perceived value of a bet against its risk which allows for higher stakes at higher odds and also smaller stakes at smaller odds, as well as the much more accepted practice of higher stakes at smaller odds and smaller stakes at higher odds.

I wouldn’t favour level stakes for my own betting simply because of the wide range of odds involved but I do tend to stake to achieve broadly the same profit from all bets (subject to what I can actually get on).  It might be worth a simple comparison between level stakes, level returns and level profits.
If anyone did a detailed analysis and came up with the “perfect” staking plan it might fall foul of what I believe is called back fitting, e.g. would have worked for what has happened so far but might not for what happens next.
I agree with the notion (for most systems) that there might be more gain from time spent trimming off a few losing bets rather than over-finessing the approach to staking.

I wouldn’t favour level stakes for my own betting simply because of the wide range of odds involved but I do tend to stake to achieve broadly the same profit from all bets (subject to what I can actually get on).  It might be worth a simple comparison between level stakes, level returns and level profits.
If anyone did a detailed analysis and came up with the “perfect” staking plan it might fall foul of what I believe is called back fitting, e.g. would have worked for what has happened so far but might not for what happens next.
I agree with the notion (for most systems) that there might be more gain from time spent trimming off a few losing bets rather than over-finessing the approach to staking.

Harry, Clive Holt's staking plan is extremely logical.  I've used it for years and the sense is apparent.

For a bit of interest I've had a bet on Spain corners. England have hardly been put under any defensive pressure so far in the tournament whereas Spain have racked up 32 corners in their group matches. Admittedly 17 were against Finland but they still notched up 6 and 9 against Germany and Denmark respectively. Provided Spain are chasing the game, there could be a chance of a few corners being conceded by England. I have backed over 6.5 Spain corners at 3/1 (skybet).

England v Spain today and I think this is a closer call than the markets predict, even with England drifting overnight (Spain were as big as 16/5 to win but now 14/5.) This game seems a prime candidate to consider the draw/penalties angle. Given that 11 out of 13 draws in the sample of International tournament games I looked at went to pens there's probably more value in the latter.
I've been matched on the draw at 3.8 and am on the game going to penalties at 11/2 with Lads.
Though last time I forecasted a close game for England they destroyed Norway 8-0!
Not sure about the headers angle on this game given I see goals being at a premium. 9/5 feels ok at best, might wait till the game goes in play and hope that the next goal to be a header bet is available at 19/5. The no goal/no bet angle makes that seem appealing for this game.

Been looking at the top scorer/golden boot market. There are 7 runners with 2 or more goals so far.
Mead (England) 5 - best price 1/2 Russo (England) 3 - best price 40/1 Popp (Germany) 3 - best price 14/1 Geyoro (France) 3 - best price 12/1 Leuchter (Holland) 2 - best price 66/1 White (England) 2 - best price 11/1 Angeldal (Sweden) 2 - best price 50/1 Not much appeal in taking 1/2 about Mead not getting caught. Russo price would be interesting if she is in contention to start. PP would allow me 25p if I wanted to take that bet! Geyoro's goals all came in the opener against Italy and I can't get excited about her prospects at that price. Leuchter, like Russo, might be interesting if she starts which is possible given Martens is out with injury and Miedema still a doubt with Covid but I don't see the goals flowing for Holland from here on in. White so-so at the price, Angeldal not really an out and out goalscorer.
The one that appeals to me is Popp at 14/1 Skybet (12/1 Betway) and I've had a bet on that. She's scored in every game so far and has a good chance of adding to that tally against Austria, along with a strong chance of at least making the semi finals.

They've both come in as you say - never a bad thing. Those were my opening gambits in the market and I've been building a book ever since. I'm in good shape at the top of the market, so as long as the winner comes from the teams in single figures right now it'll be a small loss at worst. If any of Netherlands, Austria or Belgium win then it'll be a hefty loss as things currently stand, but I'll be adjusting my book right up until the final so things could change.

France v Iceland: France have the group won and have made changes, Iceland can qualify with an unlikely win which they will surely go for. I think France will win, no surprise if Iceland nick one. Renard at 10/3 worth another go, Diani 9/4 looks decent and is my first anytime system bet for a while. Both with Sky Bet.
Italy v Belgium: We should be able to anticipate a competitive game here with both teams assuming a win will take them through unless Iceland can beat France. Nothing I've seen suggests Italy deserve to be as favoured as they are by the markets. Italy are the 8th best European team according to the rankings with Belgium 11th and Iceland in between them as 10th. I'd say any result is possible here and have taken Belgium to win at 4.5 as (hopefully) the value play. Vanhaevermaert 8/1 anytime Uni the only scorer bet that appeals.
Given how the tie is balanced the possibility of cards rears its so far loss making head. The ref showed 6 yellows when Holland played Portugal though doesn't stand out on her general stats. One price caught my eye for an interest, Hills going 5/1 for each team being shown 2+ cards (quite a bit shorter elsewhere).

Thanks for the idea! 

Very true, I think it was the wise move going the each way route. Golf scoring from my humble observations is a very volatile thing indeed, even for the pro's.

Well done to @Johnrobertson and @harry_rag getting the each way returns from DJ and Fleetwood respectively.
Rory just couldn't hole any decent length putts on the final day.
He was by far the best player in my Fantasy Golf squad with the next best finisher being Scheffler in 21st place.
Well done to any Cameron Smith backers, a superb final round, bouncing back impressively from his disappointment in round three.
 
3M Open up next on the PGA Tour.

Bet 15 Back McIlroy to finish top 8.  IP 2nd on -18 under.
I think someone must have been cashing out or something ?‍♂️
Matched Average Odds Back Rory McIlroyfor £65.45 @ 1.01 to win £0.65

Bets 60 and 61: 10 points each on Smith and McIlroy for top 10 finishes in the Open at 1.01

50/50 Bank @ £34.73 (£10.00 banked) 

Lol..  yeah definitely not.
@1.01!!
Matched Average Odds Back Spain (W) +2for £64.83 @ 1.01 to win £0.65

Bet 130 (3.1): 10 points on a goal in the first half in England v N Ireland at 1/6 Bet Way
I'm gung ho on England hitting the ground running in this game and think this is a decent price about it not being goalless come the break.

42/42 Bank @ £31.42.

Banking £10.00 of the £15.00 I started with so next bet will be for £21.42. 

3.75 on the exchange (1st game they've priced the scorer markets up for).

There has been a lot of hype about Ellen White being on the cusp of becoming England's all time leading goalscorer - by getting ahead of Wayne Rooney. She needs 1 goal to equal Rooney's 53 goals. It's possible there will be every effort from her team mates for White to score twice and then be subbed to preserve her for the harder games ahead. I was about to press the button on White to score a brace at 9/4 with skybet when they cut to 13/8. I saw 7/4 with Coral (Bet 365 only 4/5). I hate missing out on a price so am swerving now.
I can see the Northern Ireland defence conceding a penalty or two (especially with Esther Straubli with the whistle) so have backed Georgia Stanway to score at 5/4 and also to score a brace at 7/1 (skybet). Stanway scored twice in England's recent 5-0 beating of NI and neither were penalties.
I also expect Lucy Bronze to be advanced for much of the game and reckon 4/1 for her to score is a bit of value.
Given the identity of the referee and NI inevitably having minimal possession and making some tired challenges, I have bought NI bookings at 13 (SX) and their multi bookings at 43 (SX).
[Will actually be watching the rugby league so will check losses? on the women's footie afterwards].

Always tough doing a 1-20 this far before a Premier League season starts, @thfc, but I sympathise with me currently trying to fit my 1-24 Championship predictions whilst I have time. I agree with Harry that I'm not sure I can see Newcastle breaking into the top 6 this season but then you can never tell how the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United will do this season. Tottenham and Arsenal seem to be preparing well but, again, both can be unpredictable. It's certainly Manchester City's title to lose this year.
I have big concerns for Leeds. I know a couple of Leeds supporters and they are preparing for life in the Championship in 2023/24. Losing Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips is massive for them and unless the new signings hit the ground running they could be in a world of pain if they don't take points from that relatively kind start to the season with regards to the fixtures they have.
You are right about Frank Lampard though. It feels like Everton after a relegation from the top flight waiting to happen. They were fortunate last season. They may be fortunate again this year with three teams being weaker than them but they won't improve much at all. Especially with Richarlison having exited.

Gut feel from a quick scan would be a bit optimistic on Newcastle making the top 6 and way too optimistic regarding Leeds prospects!
No time at the moment for a more considered view but here's a link to SPIN's total points market which shows you how they rank the teams.
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.df1bcba9-7272-4c76-8f1a-c3f338d82d0b/premier-league-points-2022-23

Egurrola - Scored a header and looked a threat from set pieces. This was her first start for the Dutch after switching to them from Spain, she had a brace in one of her 5 sub appearances and scored 6 goals for Spain at youth levels. Not particularly prolific in domestic games, worth considering if a particularly generous price is offered. (I wasn't expecting her to start this game but had a look when I saw she was. Can't remember the price but it wasn't huge, 9/2 maybe.
Van der Gragt - Scored the second goal and looked even more of a threat at set pieces. Wasn't even on my radar pre-game but now has 4 in 25 for Holland in 2021/2 and 5 in 36 for Ajax over the last couple of league campaigns. Again bear in mind but only at a generous price.
Headed goals - 2 more in this game. I'll be totting up but I'm pretty sure you'd be well in front on simply betting on one to be scored in every game (I'd estimate it's come in more than 50% of the time at average odds of around 8/5). I've managed to put a "fun" double on a couple of days where there was only one winner, either side of days where it landed in both!
Card watch - 6 yellows last night (and another for dissent after the final whistle). Nothing in the ref's stats to suggest it was an obvious game to bet high on but Portugal's next game worth bearing in mind given they can qualify with a win. With the right ref I'd definitely be looking for an appealing cards price.