Premier League Ante Post Predictions 2022/23

[StevieDay1983]

OK, so the early odds are now available for the Premier League title. Take a look and tell us what you think of these prices being offered. Manchester City installed as the early pre-season favourites which is hardly surprising as reigning champions and adding Erling Haaland to their ranks. Who are you backing? Keen to hear your 1-20 predictions at some point too! 

[jamied02]

Here's the first iteration of my projections - not one to get too drawn into transfer business, I prefer to see evidence on the pitch which will be reflected in my ratings after 4/5 games anyway. The exception to this of course is Newcastle with there new found wealth - although in fairness where I've pitched their rating pre-season isn't a million miles away from their rating over the last 24 matches of last season.

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by jamied02

[thfc]

Go on then, i've got some time so i'll have a go at the 1-20 prediction:

 

1. Man City- I think they win quite comfortably with Haaland making a great team even better.

2. Liverpool- Next best but I think they drop back a bit in terms of total points.  Mane is a big loss and Nunez might need some time to hit the ground running.

3. Spurs- best of the rest.  Very pleased with the signings made so far, and with a full season under Conte I will be hoping to push Liverpool close for second

4. Arsenal- I think they have recruited well so far and have a stronger squad than last year when they finished 5th, so up one to 4th for me

5. Chelsea- Not impressed with their business thus far.  The loss of Rudiger in particular will be tough to replace, and I don't think Sterling coming in is going to be the answer to their striker problems.  Maybe Chelsea's time towards the top end of the PL is coming to an end?

6. Newcastle- Still time to spend more money on improving the squad but you have to appreciate what Howe has done since he came in with the squad he already has.  Pope is a solid addition and Botman is highly rated so I think they are going to be defensively solid, but a bit light up front as things stand

7. Man Utd- Still looks like a squad that is not entirely harmonious- Ronaldo wants out but will probably have to stay put, they haven't signed anyone of note yet, and it's tough to know if Ten Hag is all that good when anyone can win the league with Ajax!  7th feels a generous placing!

8. Leicester City- no business done as yet, but they always seem to invest wisely so I expect them to be a strong team once again, and their current team (assuming Vardy is fit and Tielemans stays) is strong

9. West Ham- I have no idea who their big signing (Aguerd) is, but Moyes is a shrewd manager so a top half finish looks likely for West Ham, but not challenging for Europe as they have been in recent years

10.  Leeds- Going to take a punt and say Leeds are going to improve quite a bit on last season.  They lost Phillips but he was injured most of last season anyway.  They look like they have recruited quite well with a few RB Salzburg/Leipzig players and have a stronger squad than last season

11. Aston Villa- Don't see them improving too much on their position from last season.  A good team but still a long way off the top 6.

12. Wolves- Another solid team but until they can start scoring some more goals, they won't get into the top half

13. Brighton- I don't know what to make of Brighton, other than they are surely a worse team for losing Bissouma.  Another team that really need a good striker to push on. 

14. Nottingham Forest- Forest look to have recruited really well.  Henderson in goal is solid, we saw what a difference he made to Sheff Utd in their first season in the PL a few years ago.  The nigerian guy from Berlin has a good goalscoring record in Germany so if he can hit the ground running in the PL, I think Forest will be this season's Brentford and stay up fairly comfortably

15. Southampton- tough to know what to make of their signings so far, they still need a decent striker to replace Ings in my opinion.  But should have enough about them to finish clear of the relegation zone.

16. Brentford- Losing Eriksen will be a blow, but I like the signing of Hickey.  I think they have enough about them (with Toney in particular) to stay up.

17. Crystal Palace- Assuming they don't get Gallagher back, i'm putting Palace as a team to slip backwards from their comfortable mid table finish last season, but just about stay up.

18. Everton- I don't rate Frank Lampard!  Losing Richarlison weakens the team and I think they are struggling financially with the new stadium so probably don't have that much to invest in strengthening a squad that only just escaped last year.  It wouldn't be a massive shock to see them go this time around.

19. Fulham- Classic yo-yo club.  I admit I don't know much about their current team so i've put them here because of that more than anything else!  Mitrovic will have to improve on his last PL efforts if they are to survive.  I think they will be a bit like Norwich- far too naive defensively but capable of scoring a few and will entertain along the way.

20. Bournemouth- Again they don't look to have signed anyone of note as yet.  Clearly a  very good championship team, but players like Solanke have been in the PL before and failed to impress, so I can't see them doing anything other than being relegated.

 

After the top 5, I found this quite a tough exercise, so look forward to seeing a few other opinions on who finishes where.

 

 

 

[harry_rag]

Gut feel from a quick scan would be a bit optimistic on Newcastle making the top 6 and way too optimistic regarding Leeds prospects!

No time at the moment for a more considered view but here's a link to SPIN's total points market which shows you how they rank the teams.

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.df1bcba9-7272-4c76-8f1a-c3f338d82d0b/premier-league-points-2022-23

[thfc]

Fair enough!  I do feel Leeds are my main punt in being out of line with expectations, though some would say Palace and Everton should be higher.  One thing is for sure, there is going to be at least 1 team who do much better/worse than the likes of SPIN's predictions.  

I thought it would be a 5 minute job to to the 1-20 prediction, but actually found it really hard from 6-20 as realistically I think a lot of teams are on a similar level and could be argued to be better or worse than my own rankings.  

All can change with the transfer window still having plenty of time.   I'll be happy with 2 or 3 of these end up being right at the end of the season!

[StevieDay1983]

Always tough doing a 1-20 this far before a Premier League season starts, @thfc, but I sympathise with me currently trying to fit my 1-24 Championship predictions whilst I have time. I agree with Harry that I'm not sure I can see Newcastle breaking into the top 6 this season but then you can never tell how the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United will do this season. Tottenham and Arsenal seem to be preparing well but, again, both can be unpredictable. It's certainly Manchester City's title to lose this year.

I have big concerns for Leeds. I know a couple of Leeds supporters and they are preparing for life in the Championship in 2023/24. Losing Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips is massive for them and unless the new signings hit the ground running they could be in a world of pain if they don't take points from that relatively kind start to the season with regards to the fixtures they have.

You are right about Frank Lampard though. It feels like Everton after a relegation from the top flight waiting to happen. They were fortunate last season. They may be fortunate again this year with three teams being weaker than them but they won't improve much at all. Especially with Richarlison having exited.

[harry_rag]

Racing Post 80 page season preview is "free" with the paper today. Didn't bother with it last year but thought I'd pick one up today if only to whet the appetite for the new season. Changed my mind when I saw the cover price was £4.80! 

I'll just wait for all the articles to no longer be behind the paywall on the website.

[monty63]

52 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Racing Post 80 page season preview is "free" with the paper today. Didn't bother with it last year but thought I'd pick one up today if only to whet the appetite for the new season. Changed my mind when I saw the cover price was £4.80! 

I'll just wait for all the articles to no longer be behind the paywall on the website.

if you go to a betting shop and friendly with staff ask them after the days racing and if no one took it already they might let you have it worth a try

[drawback18]

I bought the paper. 

City and Liverpool 1-2, Chelsea and Spurs 3-4, Arsenal and United 5-6.

Promoted clubs going back down, with notable mentions for Brentford, Leeds and Southampton.

Top scorers: Haaland, Sterling

Handicap betting: Man City +0, Arsenal +21

Without big 6: West Ham and Brighton

Most Assists: Eriksen and TAA

Bottom on Christmas Day: Bournemouth

Saved you a fortune there!

[dylanphan]

Some quick thoughts here.....

In my eyes, the quality gap between the top two and the rest is massive.  Man City should run away and hide with the title this year as they are just too much too handle, too deep.  The only possible distraction will be their failure to win the CL and Pep will certainly put a large emphasis on winning that title.  Don't sleep in Alvarez on this squad, he's really good.

Liverpool lose Mane, sure, but there is still talent to burn and they bring in 23 year old Nunez and Luis Diaz will now have a full year under his belt.  Got to be careful to manage Salah's workload as he tends to get the niggly injury from time to time, but still Klopp is a top manager so I would trust in him to do fine with this squad.

After that I'd back Chelsea for 3rd.  I really like Tuchel's approach and I know they've lost a few cb's and missed out on Konde, but they did bring in Koulibaly from Napoli and I think you'll see this team attack a lot, which may hide some of their defensive flaws.

4th-5th-6th I'm guessing some variation of Spurs, Arsenal and United.  I support United, but this team is a mess.  BEST case scenario, Rashford comes back in full health and has found his scoring boots, Martial compliments him, Ronaldo stops pouting, and Ericksen/Fernandes create tons of chances.  They still lack a great holding/defensive MF but McTomminay is good enough and a CB tandem of Varane and MArtinez are very capable with the ball at their feet (Something that you can't say for the likes of Maguire and Lindelof).  Team still has a lot of youth, we'll see what EtH can do here.  Arsenal up and coming squad who i think will be a bit uneven at times.  Weakest manager of the top 6, imho will hinder some performances.  If they can take care of business against teams they should beat and not have any lapses, I can see a 4th place finish.  Conte is a hired gun, who if he can't win trophies will move on to his next position.  I'm not 100% sold on Spurs here, BUT, talent is there.  Bringing in Kuluveski last year from Serie A was a great move and now with Richarlson, you will have a ton of threats on the counter and the wings, and not need to rely on getting the ball to Kane or relying on a piece of Son brilliance.  They'll need it though because I don't rate their back line all that much and a few of their offensive guys never really known for getting back after it on defense.  Can beat any team on any given day, but I don't see the overall depth there to make it much higher than 4th, tbh.

Teams I think could challenge for Europe:

Newcastle - throwing around cash like nobodies business, we'll just have to see how this team meshes though.  I think they are top 10 for sure, and could they be this year's Leicester and really challenge for a title?  Not sure they are that good, but I think they could get up to 3rd if things break just right.  Howe always gets the most out of his players for sure, but they just lack the top end talent the clubs above them have.

West Ham - Moyes is a really good manager, except when he was at Old Trafford where he just shit the proverbial bed, in my eyes.  And right now he has a very talented Hammers side.  Rice staying is huge.  Can't expect Soucek to have the season he had last year, but Antonio fully healthy, Bowen, Benrahma and they bring in Scamacca from Serie A where he created tons of chances last year. I think Hammers can surprise and if they can find a way to defend and not need rely on their gk's who aren't the best, they will be a fun team.

Teams I think will get relegated

Bournemouth I think the weakest of them all.

Leeds, gonna be tough for them to stay up with all they lost.  As an American of course this team I'm familiar with their coach and a number of players, this Aaronson kid is going to be good, but this is an absolute terrible spot for him.  I'm sure these guys will run around like chickens with their heads cut off and be annoying to play against at times, but not deep enough or good enough to stay up.

Fulham would be the other obvious choice, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Wolves go down as they have had their cupboard picked pretty bare there over the past year or two.