erny86

Gael Monfils to beat David Goffin at 1.83 with Bet365
Taking this early, I expect odds to drop on Gael here. David is only a shadow of his former self right now and he needs a lot more to be done to be able to produce his best tennis and I don't see it coming in Rotterdam.

Jordan Thompson to beat Noah Rubin at 1.79 with Betsson
Jordan is the way better player here, that's how I reason!

Jordan Thompson to beat Noah Rubin at 1.85 with William Hill
Yeah, I agree that Thompson is somewhat better and should be a somewhat bigger favourite here. I would be very confident outside the US, but I think the odds are worth it even with the home conditions factored in.

SOFIA ATP R16
Struff vs Tsitsipas
Bet on Tsitsipas -2.5 @ 1.90
The uprising 20-year-old has a H2H of 1-0 and is fast improving.  He should win this match-up.

 
 

Lucas Pouille -1.5 games to beat Marcos Baghdatis at 1.50 with bet365
Feels like Pouille should pick up a relatively easy win here.
Still, knowing Pouille and the possibility for tie breaks I don't want to go too crazy on the handicap.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert to beat Illia Ivashka at 1.40 with William Hill
Guido Pella to beat Albert Ramos at 1.52 with 888
I know I said that Bautista to win in Sofia would be my last bet but I like these two bets. This is a week to look for upsets (Goffin and Kachanov have lost today), especially for those players who played in the Davis Cup but I don’t expect any surprise with these two matches. Herbert is playing in his home country and destroyed Kudla in his first match here (6-1, 6-2). The reason is exactly the same for the other match, Pella is playing in his home country and destroyed Paolo Lorenzi in his first match (6-1, 6-3). His opponent is Albert Ramos, who is in a bad form and suffered a lot in his first match against Hugo Dellien (7-6, 4-6, 6-3). 

Daniel Brands (+1.5 sets) to beat Martin Klizan at 1.70 with Pinnacle
I don't have much of an appetite betting on Klizan after the weekend, but I can't see a better bet for tomorrow right now. Brands has been on fire so far in Sofia and his serve is working really well, while Klizan's first match here saw yet another roller-coaster. Klizan is the favourite, but he's dropping sets left and right against stable players.

What do you think about Kotov - Coppejans in Budapest Challenger? Special facts on it.
 
Kotov is a 20 years old russian that has won 1 game in Budapest and with a year record 7-2 (all game in hard surface).
 
On the other side of the net, there will be Coppejans that last Saturday the 2nd of February was playing Davis Cup in Brazil on clay court.
His record on hard is 55-62.
 
Much more experience for the belgian but I think the tough games in Davis Cup on clay and the surface change will affect him a lot.
 
Pavel Kotov @ 1'86 at Pinnacle Stake 1/10

Fabio Fognini to beat Hyeong Chung at 2.20 with bet365
I’m a little bit surprised by these odds (don’t know exactly If there is something that escapes me or the odds are just these because Fabio’s mentality). Fabio did semifinals here the last year (she lost against Dimitrov). He did a good Asian Tour, reaching final in Chengdu and semifinal in Beijing (he won against Bemelmans, Ebden, Fritz, Albot, Rublev and Fuscovics). The Asian Tour of Chung has been horrible, winning only 1 match (Hurcackz). He lost in the 1st round in Chengdu against Felix Auger-Aliassime, in the 1st round in Tokyo against Shapovalov and in the 2nd round in Shanghai against Cecchinato. I have to recognize that he played very well in the first two rounds, winning against Fritz and Kudla in straight sets. Anyway, Fognini has more experience and has been playing very well the last weeks so at these odds I think that there is value on him. 

Belinda Bencic to beat Vera Lapko at 1.79 with Unibet
The two played a crazy match last week, with Bencic crushing Lapko in the first set before having a complete mental breakdown and even crying at one point. Since then, she's found some tremendous form though and she's also semi-home now, so chances are that there won't be any breakdowns this time around. At 1.79, I'm willing to chance that.

What a shout!! Wins 7-6, 7-6 Amazing 

Seraphim 76(5) 76(5) 

Elina Svitolina to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 1.91 with William Hill
Going with Svitolina in this one. I know Sabalenka has improved a lot, she played absolutely well in Cincinnati and Connecticut but i think that bookies now are overrating her a little bit. In Québec she lost in the first round against Lepchenko in straight sets and we can't forget that Sabalenka has only 20 years old. The hard court season of Svitolina is not been excellent but she won at least 2 matches in every tournament she has played so is not being bad either. Sabalenka plays an ultra-agressive tennis so if she's not accurate use to make a lot of unforced errors. I think Svitolina is the kind of player who can frustrate Sabalenka, forcing her to hit the ball in bad positions and making her to commit a lot of UE.

Qiang Wang to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.53 with Unibet
Bernard Tomic to beat Bradley Klahn at 1.74 with Pinnacle
Margarita Gasparyan (-3.5) to beat Sabina Sharipova at 1.72 with Bet365
Ekaterina Alexandrova to beat Ivana Jorovic at 1.80 with Bet365
Irina Begu to beat Kateryna Kozlova at 1.58 with Pinnacle
Hello, it's me again, Mario, with five picks for the early rounds. Qiang Wang was in an amazing form last week and Chinese players tend to work really hard in home events, so I do fancy her against Sakkari. Tomic has finally found some footing, while Klahn is still way too unproven outside the US, so there's that. At 1.74, I'm definitely happy to have a shot. In Tashkent, I definitely fancy Begu and Alexandrova on quality terms. Finally, I've been waiting to back Gasparyan somewhere since seeing her in the US Open against Kerber and this looks like a good opportunity. She's a top 50 material when in form, while Sharipova is just below average.

Spain to beat France at 2.62 with SportingBet

Yes, Spain is missing Nadal, but both Bautista-Agust and Busta are solid players. Also, France is missing their main doubles pair of Mahut and Herbert, so I think Spain has a better chance than the odds suggest.

Mandy Minella to beat Dejana Radanovic at 1.46 with Pinnacle
Francoise Abanda to beat Jessica Ponchet at 1.67 with Unibet
Taking these two in the US Open qualifiers today. Minella is just miles above Radanovic and the fact that she is yet to hit the hard courts in this season doesn't really scare me given her experience. Meanwhile, Abanda has been quite useful on American hards recently, she should definitely beat Ponchet if she replicates her performances against Flipkens/Boulter.

Serena Williams vs Angelique Kerber
Over 21.5 games 4/5 paddy power 
This is going to be a close match as I can see Serena struggling against her opponent who is tough player to beat 

No idea on those unfortunately, I can't even keep track of Wimbledon to be honest , wanted to watch some of the doubles in full but no luck. Good luck if you get on those picks, however!
Novak Djokovic to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.94 with Unibet
I would really like to have some great analytical insight on this match-up, but I'm afraid that so much has been said about it over the years that I can't really add anything. The surface should help Djokovic slightly, everyone can see that, but I also think that he's in a slightly better place mentally, more match fit and has already had tougher tests on grass. Nadal had exactly one thanks to his cakewalk draw and he nearly lost, so chances are that he will now. Not a lock by any means, but I'd have Djokovic at 1.80 here given my point of view.

NICHOLAS JARRY VS KRAJINOVIC
This on the face of it looks very wide open but not without some pointers. Firstly in my humble opinion 4/9  3/10 & 8/13 all come from the same stock of wigi board craft. Secondly, I would not require any assistance with mathematical probability to help me reach a decision in this sort of seemingly open affair. One man from Chile and the other from Serbia on a grass court speaks volumes. I agree that match practice is invaluable in terms of getting a player ready for a tournament. But I guess that is why we are human and distinct and unique species. Some players just do not conform to those fundamental rules. Take Radwanska for example, she returned from a long break only to continue spanking those who had already benefitted from match practice. Jarry played one match on grass and I do not think it puts him in any point of advantage to be considered the winner of this match. At 7/4 and being the higher seed, I believe Krajinovic looks primed for victory here. I will be quite shocked if this man called Jarry wins this. Good luck all!!!

Federer R. - Lajovic D.
The week before last at Halle, just before playing Coric, 3 or 4 members here were questioning Federer's fitness but no one was bold enough to tip Coric unfortunately (won @ 6.00)
And out of those same members not one of them thought Federer could win Wimbledon, I hope they're right!
Minimum stakes for me: Lajovic to beat Federer @ 23.00 with Bet365 (as short as 11.00 with some bookies)
Minimum stakes again: Lajovic e.w. to win SW19 @ 1001.00 (50% payout to reach the final)
Yes that is one thousand to one with Bet365 & BetVictor
Good luck all 

Matthias Bachinger @ 2.1 with PaddyPower (vs. Novak)
Bachinger is on a bit of a golden run, beating Evans, Polmans, Istomin and Pospisil this grass season. Really should be stronger favourite here in my eyes. Novak did beat Young (which I predicted) but took three sets to do it. Young is in pretty weak form so I don't see that as much of an achievement! Bachinger could do this easily so I see real value in backing him as underdog with Paddy Power which is out of line with the rest of the market anyway. I put Bachinger's chances at around 60%. 

Gilles Muller to beat John Millman at 1.57 with Bet365
Muller looked good last week, unlucky to have met Cilic so early. He's much better on grass than Millman will ever be and he needs to get some points somewhere. This looks like a good chance.

Not sure about the rest of the week, but I will be hoping for Vekic to win as many matches as possible obviously.

Witthoeft C. - Schoofs B. - WTA Hertogenbosch
This looks like a good opportunity for an upset.
Witthoeft has lost her last six matches, the last five without winning a set including one against her opponent today just four weeks ago and also against WTA 256 Fiona Ferro at the French Open.
Wildcard Schoofs is playing quite well, will have home advantage and a mental edge so worth a punt I believe.
Schoofs to win @ 3.25 with Bet365
Good luck all 

Thomas Fabbiano to beat Marcel Granollers at 2.00 with Bet365
I don't see a reason for Granollers being the favourite here, as he's been crap all season long. Fabbiano is decent on grass and the defending finalist of the event as well. Perhaps the bookies know more than I do, but I'm just not seeing it.