Tennis Tips - September 10 - September 16

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Evgeniya Rodina to beat Georgina Garcia-Perez at 2.10 with William Hill

I'm not sure what makes Garcia-Perez the favourite here. She has a good indoors game, but so does Rodina and I'm not sure how wise it was for Garcia-Perez to travel to Zagreb and back, especially since the ITF event there was played on clay. Rodina's recent form looks poor, but all those defeats came against stronger opposition than this one.

Lucie Safarova (-3.5) to beat Ons Jabeur at 1.80 with BoyleSports

Safarova might be about to quit tennis at the end of the year, but it's clear that she still has what it takes to compete on almost the top level and her game should certainly be better for the conditions than Jabeur's. She's also the former winner here and has the form book on her side as well.

[CzechPunter]

Gabriela Dabrowski (-2.5) to beat Leylah Annie Fernandez at 1.80 with BoyleSports

One additional bet for me in Quebec. Leylah Annie Fernandez might have some promise for the future, but that doesn't change the fact that her best result to this day is that she pushed Boulter to three sets in Montreal some time ago. Dabrowski has made it through the qualifiers and she is going to try hard given that this is a local derby of sorts, so her experience and skills should prevail. The clincher for me is that Dabrowski is one of those players that don't have a particularly clean style, which is something that usually works well against inexperienced players.

[CzechPunter]

Kateryna Kozlova to beat Zarina Diyas at 4.41 with Pinnacle

Not a good start to the week, shame about Rodina especially. That said, I'm not giving up just yet and this looks like value to me regardless of what the final result is going to be, just on principle. The two played a three-setter in Chicago just a while ago before starting their weeks with easy wins, not sure what makes Kozlova a 4.41 shot honestly, she's always been one of those players that are capable of springing a big win out of nowhere. Something like 3.00 would look fair to me.

[four-leaf]

Heather Watson/Leylah Annie Fernandez under 19.0 games at 2.00 with Pinnacle

Here's where it ends for Leylah. Heather was as efficient as she can be against Monica Niculescu and played well enough to save over 12 breakpoints. Her serve was clicking well enough for me to belive this will be a short encounter since not only her serve worked well because her groundstrokes look good. I expect Leylah to make a bit to many unforced errors here to avoid the double break somewhere so this should end in two sets with 6-2/6-1 being possible in one of the sets which should be enough.

[four-leaf]

Anna Karolina Schmiedlova to beat Victorija Golubic at 1.91 with Paddypower

Going with Anna Karolina because she doesn't have the same bad form as Victorija. Both have their losses recently but Anna Karolina has lost to far better players than Victorija. As an example: this summer Victorija lost 3 in a row to Ons Jabeur, Patty Schnyder and Eugenie Bouchard in her favourite home tournament Gstaad. In US open she lost to Julia Glushko so the form of Victorija isn't very convincing. Anna Karolina has lost to Rebecca Peterson, Sofia Kenin, Yafan Wang and Olga Danilovic in Moscow who was in sick form when she won WTA Moscow and as mentioned all those are players in better form currently than Victorija.

[four-leaf]

Rebecca Marino (-1.5 sets) to beat Georgina Garcia Perez at 2.45 with Unibet

Rebecca looked really good in first round when she beat Tatjana Maria in straight sets 6-2 6-2 and that's game she displayed in that match is bound to continue. She's been playing very good tennis in her comeback this season since february. She's improved her ranking from 917 to 264. She had not played a match since 2013 but she is back for real the former world no.38 and I think we'll see her winning in straight sets tomorrow and reach another quarter final in Quebec as she was in the quarter final in 2011 also when she was a top 50 player.

[Crespo]

Once again a stupid odds movement on Betfair. I'm talking about the Bacszinsky - Zavatska match from the ITF Biarritz tournament. Bacszinsky lost the first set, but then won the second set and took a pretty quick 3-0 lead in the third set. At the 3-0, the odds were lower than 1,2. However, then the match was paused and it is scheduled to resume tomorrow. But now the odds moved to almost 1.4 on Bacszinky which is crazy. As I said, the real odds when the match stopped were lower than 1.2 and even if Zavatska will get her first service game tomorrow, the odds then won't be 1.4. So it's basically a risk-free bet on Basczinsky. If she breaks immediately when the match returns, the odds will be really low and you can get out for a nice (sure) win and if Zavatska holds you should still be able to get out for a small profit as well. As the odds are now, they make no sense at all.

[four-leaf]

Tamara Zidansek to beat Magda Linette at 2.23 with Pinnacle

Tamara has shown she's something to count on when it comes to clay and she's beaten Magda twice already this season in straight sets on clay. Question is if Tamara can repeat her success on hardcourt so can she beat Magda again on a hardcourt? She started off with a straight sets win versus Arina Rodionova but this will be more of a challenge but as she's already won twice on clay versus Magda this season I think she can do it again on hard. Tamara is 20 years old and has already got herself to no. 75 and maybe it's just a matter of time before we see her in top 50. Her game maybe doesn't suit as well on hard but I think she's got enough to beat Magda again. And besides almost every favourite has won in Hiroshima so far this round so it might be time for a small upset again.

[CzechPunter]

Kozlova was pretty close, oh well. Now waiting for the Davis Cup.

[Larkin22]

Courtsiders just made a fortune at the Andreozzi Martinez game, feed went with Andreozzi 1.4 and on serve in the first set 4-4. When the feed returns its suddenly 6-4 3-2 Andreozzi and 1.11.

[Larkin22]

15 hours ago, Crespo said:

Once again a stupid odds movement on Betfair. I'm talking about the Bacszinsky - Zavatska match from the ITF Biarritz tournament. Bacszinsky lost the first set, but then won the second set and took a pretty quick 3-0 lead in the third set. At the 3-0, the odds were lower than 1,2. However, then the match was paused and it is scheduled to resume tomorrow. But now the odds moved to almost 1.4 on Bacszinky which is crazy. As I said, the real odds when the match stopped were lower than 1.2 and even if Zavatska will get her first service game tomorrow, the odds then won't be 1.4. So it's basically a risk-free bet on Basczinsky. If she breaks immediately when the match returns, the odds will be really low and you can get out for a nice (sure) win and if Zavatska holds you should still be able to get out for a small profit as well. As the odds are now, they make no sense at all.

Nice work Crespo

[Crespo]

Thanks a lot CSanders. Bacszinsky won easily, but even if she wouldn't have, the odds were simply off. This happens a lot on Betfair during (longer) delays/ interruptions of matches. 

[CzechPunter]

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Mirza Basic at 1.58 with Unibet

Basic is in such a dreadful form at the moment that I just cannot trust him against someone as proven as Nishioka, who is also going to have the home conditions on his side. There shouldn't be much pressure on him either, as Daniel is expected to win the first tie comfortably, and he has a decent Davis Cup record as well (you have to ignore the tie against France in which he was both injured and seriously outclassed).

[South_African_Punter]

Spain to beat France at 2.62 with SportingBet

Yes, Spain is missing Nadal, but both Bautista-Agust and Busta are solid players. Also, France is missing their main doubles pair of Mahut and Herbert, so I think Spain has a better chance than the odds suggest.

[erny86]

18 hours ago, South_African_Punter said:

Spain to beat France at 2.62 with SportingBet

Yes, Spain is missing Nadal, but both Bautista-Agust and Busta are solid players. Also, France is missing their main doubles pair of Mahut and Herbert, so I think Spain has a better chance than the odds suggest.

 

Totally agree.

[Larkin22]

I think France still take it, having watched Busta and Bautista a lot recently I just don't think they can do it on Frances home turf. Fast high bouncing indoor courts I don't think will suit a team of clay assassins. 

That being said I think your right on there being value on Spain, the market has overreacted to Nadal missing out.

[four-leaf]

19 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Mirza Basic at 1.58 with Unibet

Basic is in such a dreadful form at the moment that I just cannot trust him against someone as proven as Nishioka, who is also going to have the home conditions on his side. There shouldn't be much pressure on him either, as Daniel is expected to win the first tie comfortably, and he has a decent Davis Cup record as well (you have to ignore the tie against France in which he was both injured and seriously outclassed).

Great bet @CzechPunter

[CzechPunter]

Can't believe I got one right! 

[four-leaf]

Rebecca Marino (2-1 correct score) to beat Heather Watson at 5.00 with bet365

Rebecca Marino/Heather Watson over 2.5 sets at 2.37 with bet365

Going for this since Rebecca was absolutely on fire versus GG Perez and Heather hasn't been on fire at all in her matches, had more troubles than expected in last match when she beat 17 year old Leylah Annie Fernandez 6-4 7-5 and to be honest she wasn't all that great first match either although she won in the end but her serving was good. I think this goes to 3 sets and there I think Rebecca can be the strongest again like she was in 2011 when Rebecca won in 3 on hard, the only time they've met so far. I am not going to be surprised to see this rejuvenated version of Rebecca win this in 3 and reach her first Quebec semifinal. Since I feel pretty sure about this being a 3 set affair I also place the safer bet over 2.5 sets.