CzechPunter

June 11 - June 17

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Ashleigh Barty 6.00 to win WTA Nottingham Bet365

Barty twice in a row quarter finalist at Nottingham, only losing to Konta and Karolina Pliskova in the past. The draw has been very kind to her, with Konta/Vekic/Rybarikova/Giorgi on the opposite side of the draw. Looking at the half of the draw Barty is in, it seems pretty average. Seeded players on her side are Naomi Osaka, Diyas and Buznarescu. Naomi Osaka is in there but I don't see her as a potential threat on the grass and Buznarescu has no record on playing grass.

Last year Barty pushed Kvitova and Mugaruza on grass and I think her style and patient style of play will be why she will succeed. She'll mix up her shots and her slice backhand will be a weapon once again.

Konta has been in average form the whole season thus far and with Vekic and Rybarikova, I hardly see her having an easy run to the final if she makes it

 

Further Edit 11/06/2018:

Barty is not playing doubles in Nottingham

Seeded singles players Konta, Diyas, Vekic, Buznarescu all playing doubles

Edited by KennyDelight

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Thomas Fabbiano to beat Marcel Granollers at 2.00 with Bet365

I don't see a reason for Granollers being the favourite here, as he's been crap all season long. Fabbiano is decent on grass and the defending finalist of the event as well. Perhaps the bookies know more than I do, but I'm just not seeing it.

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Witthoeft C. - Schoofs B. - WTA Hertogenbosch

This looks like a good opportunity for an upset.

Witthoeft has lost her last six matches, the last five without winning a set including one against her opponent today just four weeks ago and also against WTA 256 Fiona Ferro at the French Open.

Wildcard Schoofs is playing quite well, will have home advantage and a mental edge so worth a punt I believe.

Schoofs to win @ 3.25 with Bet365

Good luck all :ok

Edited by yogg

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I might actually tag along on on the Schoofs bet. As you mentioned Witthoeft losing her last six matches. I had the unfortunate experience of backing her in 4 of them. Any idea how good Schoofs is on grass? I don't know much about this player.

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1 minute ago, Sm0k3rZ said:

I might actually tag along on on the Schoofs bet. As you mentioned Witthoeft losing her last six matches. I had the unfortunate experience of backing her in 4 of them. Any idea how good Schoofs is on grass? I don't know much about this player.

that's the only downside as she hasn't played on grass for six years and only four times prior to that. :hope

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4 hours ago, yogg said:

Witthoeft C. - Schoofs B. - WTA Hertogenbosch

This looks like a good opportunity for an upset.

Witthoeft has lost her last six matches, the last five without winning a set including one against her opponent today just four weeks ago and also against WTA 256 Fiona Ferro at the French Open.

Wildcard Schoofs is playing quite well, will have home advantage and a mental edge so worth a punt I believe.

Schoofs to win @ 3.25 with Bet365

Good luck all :ok

Going to tail you on this bet. What swung it for me was that she has played Witthoeft only a few weeks ago and won, so I think she should be able to do it again, regardless of her inexperience on grass. I feel she should have a "memory" of how to beat Witthoeft.

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Witthoeft has some points to defend here. Won against Giorgi and Vandeweghe last year at this tournament. Coming after 6 defeats in a row, it must be pressing to get on to winning some matches. Her results on grass are decent but as you guys said, there is not much to look at as the timeframe for the grass season is so brief. 

Personally I see Witthoeft winning this. 

Just a thought. 

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I´ll share with you my picks for today as well.

M. Frech - S. Zheng 

Frech to win at odds 2.00 

Not much history about this as they have never met. However, Zheng has more experience on grass with Frech just playing 6 games on grass and winning 4. Frech who is 20 years old has left me a good impression and I believe her tennis could produce good results on grass. Even though she is quite short, the serve is not suffering that much and she handles the volley quite well. The chinese comes after going through qual here at Notthingham where she dropped a set against Kudryatseva which for me is a good indicator for her level on grass so far. Next round she won 6-3 6-4 against an opponent outside the first 1.000 players in the world. Odds to good for me to miss. 

A. Rus - E. Alexandrova 

A. Rus to win at odds 2.20

If anybody has some more info on this and can tell me why the price would be rising sincer the morning, I am really curious. H2H favours the russian who leads 3-0, all meetings being on clay. Rus plays at home. I like her history here in the Netherlands, she is at least as good as Alexandrova on grass and is the more experienced player as well. I feel the young players coming into the grass season will need more time to adapt to the surface. I believe it will be a 3-setter this one, but I see the odds for Rus slightly higher than what I feel would have been right for this games.

 

Overall, I am backing two picks without really the information I would like to have at my disposal, but this is grass season and I am personally on the move as well as I am travelling through Spain these days, but I certainly think there is value here. 

All the luck 

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7 hours ago, yogg said:

Witthoeft C. - Schoofs B. - WTA Hertogenbosch

This looks like a good opportunity for an upset.

Witthoeft has lost her last six matches, the last five without winning a set including one against her opponent today just four weeks ago and also against WTA 256 Fiona Ferro at the French Open.

Wildcard Schoofs is playing quite well, will have home advantage and a mental edge so worth a punt I believe.

Schoofs to win @ 3.25 with Bet365

Good luck all :ok

Another great pick :cheers

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Alex Bolt (+1.5 sets) to beat Vasek Pospisil at 1.71 with Pinnacle

Even though Pospisil does have the right weapons to succeed on grass, his 2018 form has been so shaky that it's hard for me to trust him in his first match on the surface, especially since he's going to face an up-and-coming player in the form of Alex Bolt, who's already spent a week on grass, even partnering Hewitt in some doubles and playing with him again this week. He's young, talented, and inspired, so some success is to be expected. It's a bet on both Bolt to perform and on Pospisil to under-perform - and either of those should be sufficient for it to come through.

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Cepede V. - Buzarnescu M. - WTA Nottingham

I love Buzarnescu who gave me a great win over Svitolina at odds of 5.60 in the French Open.

She really is a fine player who's now risen to #30 from #540 in January last year!

I believe she is at least one level above her opponent today and anything but a straight sets win will be a shock to me.

Buzarnescu to win 2-0 @ 2.30 with WilliamHill

good luck all :ok

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3 hours ago, yogg said:

Cepede V. - Buzarnescu M. - WTA Nottingham

I love Buzarnescu who gave me a great win over Svitolina at odds of 5.60 in the French Open.

She really is a fine player who's now risen to #30 from #540 in January last year!

I believe she is at least one level above her opponent today and anything but a straight sets win will be a shock to me.

Buzarnescu to win 2-0 @ 2.30 with WilliamHill

good luck all :ok

I agree with you on Buzarnescu in terms of her level but I wouldn´t rush backing her on grass just yet. She is getting more consistent lately and clay season was outstanding for her. However, now she comes in to these tournaments seeded. She will not be the underdog anymore. It´s going to be very interesting seeing her perform,. Personally I think I will include Buzarnescu to win at odds 1.50 on a parlay. 

 

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Prajnesh Gunneswaran (+4.5) to beat Denis Shapovalov at 1.89 with Marathonbet

Rudolf Molleker (+4) to beat Lucas Pouille at 1.90 with Marathonbet

Two bets for me in Stuttgart, the skies should be clear on Wednesday. I really liked Molleker against Struff, he is playing fearlessly and Pouille hasn't been good for quite some time now, so there's that. Secondly, there's Gunneswaran, who's a fairly talented player himself, just ravaged by injuries and that's why he is where he is ranking-wise. He's made it through the quallies here, however, and Shapovalov is yet to play on grass in this season, so I think that he's going to fancy his chances to get something against a big name. Shapovalov is obviously going to do big things eventually, but I don't trust his return on grass enough to think that he can cover big handicaps consistently.

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Morning everybody,

Grass court season started quite well for me with a double that worked out nicely at odds 4.00 two days ago and yesterday I have been watching and not investing as I didn´t feel confident about my picks. 

However, today I´m delighted with how the match ups look like and I have a couple of picks that I will be backing single and a parlay made out of a couple. Here comes the parlay

C. Vandeweghe - A. Rus

Pick - Over 19.5 at odds 1.72 

Both players serve well on grass with the advantage on the american side. However, I have watched Rus throughout her big first round match and despite some moments where she missed a couple of consecutive balls, Rus played consistent and her serve was up to the challenge. 36 games played between her and the russia, and just ONE break of serve. I expect this to have a tie break or both sets to be at least 10 games. Price dropped from 1,83 last night.

Van Uytvank - Kuzmova 

Pick - Van Uytvank to win at odds 1.53

I was impressed by Kuzmova´s comfortable win in the first round but I believe that the belgian will be too much for her today. H2H in favour of the better ranked player, in straight sets. Van Uytvank is quite the player you are looking for on grass in these type of tournaments. I think she posseses all the technical quality to win a tournament like this and I see it very difficult for Kuzmova to advance further than this round here. Price is dropping since the bookies set the line, but it works perfectly for my today´s double. 

Total odds - 2,63

Singles

Falconi - Buzarnescu 

Pick - Buzarnescu to win 2-0 at odds 1.80

I wrote yesterday about the romanian´s game and how I feel about her performance on this surface. She got past V. Cepede-Roig but not without having problems in closing the match. She missed a couple of match poiints before going 5-5 in the tie-break and winning the next two points in the final set. I believe Falconi is clearly going to be dominated by Buzarnescu on grass. The only one who can lose this match is the Romanian as I´ve seen here making the points but also losing the points. This will be an opportunity for her to rack up some more points and I don´t see her missing the straight sets win. 

Jakupovic - Frech

Pick - Frech to win at odds 1.83

#118 Jakupovic meets #119 Frech, Dalila Jakupovic comes after a great win over C. Giorgi. Quite the shock for the italian as she was not expected to lose first round here. I must admit I had the wrong feeling of backing her live when she was losing, but I was mistaken. Frech was one of the picks for my 4.00 odds double a couple of days ago, and she performed quite well. She has more matches than Jakupovic on this surface and she has gone 5-2 on grass while the serbian ties at 2-2. My main argument for this match is that I know for a fact that Jakupovic underperforms after winning as a big underdog. It happened to me in F.O. and it happened in Bogota. Magdalena Frech to win for me. 

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Kudermetova 2.75 to beat Belinda Bencic Bet365

Kudermetova 2.50 to win 1st set Bet365

I feel the odds were made with Bencic's name and past form in this tournament (2 years ago) in mind and have not considered Bencic's lack of regular form and fitness over recent times. She won against a lucky loser in round 1 and I think the odds for Bencic didn't factor in the step up in promising opponent

If Kudermetova can replicate the standard of serving and returning as she did v an in form and reigning 'bosh champion Kontaveit then she will have a solid opportunity to win against Bencic who is still finding her feet with form and fitness

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1 hour ago, mihaiv93 said:

Pick - Frech to win at odds 1.83

#118 Jakupovic meets #119 Frech, Dalila Jakupovic comes after a great win over C. Giorgi. Quite the shock for the italian as she was not expected to lose first round here. I must admit I had the wrong feeling of backing her live when she was losing, but I was mistaken. Frech was one of the picks for my 4.00 odds double a couple of days ago, and she performed quite well. She has more matches than Jakupovic on this surface and she has gone 5-2 on grass while the serbian ties at 2-2. My main argument for this match is that I know for a fact that Jakupovic underperforms after winning as a big underdog. It happened to me in F.O. and it happened in Bogota. Magdalena Frech to win for me. 

I'm on French as well. Jakupovic is inconsistent and when struggling in matches tries the drop shot too often. I don't think that tactic will work out as well on grass as it does for clay

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