erny86

Yeah, definitely not the best month for betting. I see these cycles in profit, but i don't know what's the reason, maybe solar splashes?

Didn't know Pablo Cuevas played in Tunis this week. He's started the season pretty well so might be worth to keep an eye out for him in Tunis. To late today sincec I just saw he's up 4-2 but I might back him if he beats Victor Troicki.

Yan Bai (+3.5) to beat Sasi Kumar Mukund at 1.85 with Pinnacle
Fully agree with @opole on this one, hopefully I won't ruin this like I did with Ouahab last week .
I'm also itching to go against Safranek, as he was tilting hard at the end of his loss against Maamoun last week, throwing his racquet to the next court and saying that he's not going to play tennis anymore. His R1 opponent isn't particularly great, however, and hasn't played on any sort of clay for quite some time, so not sure the play is warranted at just slightly above evens.

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Okay . So People have seen how I bet here.. losing mostly on some big underdog picks.  Similar to what Opole does except he wins more picks than me . I have decided for the betterment of the forum to stop posting these longshot type bets.. I will still make my own bets for these, but when I post here .. it will be on favorites to win the match similar to what Czech Punter does.. I think this is a more realistic way to help out... Godspeed !
Antonia Lottner to beat Kristyna Pliskova @ odds -127 with Pinnacle 
I have taken Lottner to upset Bencic because I thought Belinda was not in 100% health, but also I believe Lottner is playing some decent tennis at the moment as well.. So I think you got to get up on the train while its riding smooth, and this is what I feel will win.. I'm about 60 % confident. Good day all 

Giulio Zeppieri vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis @6.50 5dimes 4/10
Kokkinakis missed last three months due to same shoulder injury he had years ago. He was hitting the practice courts again in February but his shoulder didn't react well to the stress so he missed another two months because of that. Now he's starting at clay and we'll see how his shoulder react in a competitive match. He will be rusty for sure and i doubt we gonna see him playing near his best in the next few weeks. Considering clay was his worst surface (1-4 record since 2016) since having a good run on it in 2015 i am not even betting against him because of the clay. Fact is we don't know how his shoulder reacts here and his opponent is for real, Zeppieri is one of the biggest prospects in Italy right now behind Lorenzo Musetti who is also playing the tournament. 

Timea Bacsinszky to beat Tamara Korpatsch at 1.30 with Paddy Power
My venture to the world of short odds misfired quite spectacularly last week, but I'm going to try my luck again here. Basically a home tournament for Timea and Korpatsch has been playing really poorly so far in 2019, so I really don't see any other result than a win for Timea here. She did lose against Korpatsch last year, but that was when she was still getting back after a long injury.

Aston Villa vs Blackburn
For the second preview of the weekend's Championship games we move 3 miles down the road to Villa Park where Aston Villa will attempt to continue their charge up the league table in this home game against Blackburn that kicks off at 3pm on Saturday afternoon.
Aston Villa have now won four league games in a row. Dean Smith's side have shot up into the play-off positions thanks to this run of results. The manager is set to name an unchanged XI from the one that tore Middlesbrough apart before the international break. Villa have won their last three home games against Blackburn as well. It seems Jack Grealish's fitness is key to Villa's progress. Since Smith took charge, Villa have won 69% of their games with Grealish involved compared to just 15% with him missing.
Blackburn appear to have done enough to stay up this season. Tony Mowbray's side are 16th in the table and 11 points clear of the relegation zone. Unfortunately, their form has tailed off towards the back end of this season. It's now just 1 win, 1 draw, and 7 losses from their last 9 league games. Just 4 wins in their 10 away league games this season suggests it's a tall order here.
Every season, one team paces their push to the play-offs exactly right. Villa are doing exactly that. Blackburn have scored at least once in their last 9 league games against Villa so it might be worth backing both teams to score. I can just see Villa continuing their storming run with a 2-3 goal win here.
Aston Villa -1 @ 2.62 with SpreadEx
BTTS @ 1.67 with William Hill

I have bet against Woz in her first 2 matches here. The last one was one of the most frustrating matches that i ever seen. Niculescu break points converted = 3/15   Wozniacki break points converted = 4/4  so you can imagine my anger watching that match. Woz is so far from her best form let's see if this will be the definitive 

Nice spot @four-leaf 

I am so happy that Jurgen Melzer decided suddenly not to retire. I really like him as a player.

He is picking AK Schmiedlova but I agree it's not so clear who he picks. He writes as if he was betting on football.

How can you say that Alison Riske has better form recently than Alison Van Uytvanck when the former Alison just won WTA Budapest on indoor hardcourt? Very risky bet imo.

WTA Indian Wells: 10 unit bets
Dalila Jakupovic to beat Natalia Vikhlyantseva @ 2.85 with Pinnacle
Yafan Wang to beat Sonya Kenin @ 2.59 with Pinnacle
Okay I'm going to write some analysis for these so Czech Punter doesn't smash me. Jakupovic is a fully capable player, and I have questions about Natalia's fitness. This is their first meeting, and there is some pride involved. Natalia is the type of player who wins very easy one match, and then surprises easy loss next match right after.. These are very good odds, and I like the bet alot.. Natalia's first opponent was a young girl from South Africa who is only 16 years old. I don't think this tells us much about her form.. 
I predicted Yafan Wang to win the Acapulco tournament along with many other losing picks but nonetheless.. There is no reason for Kenin to be favored over her.  I think Yafan had some confidence from that win, and she won't want a letdown against Kenin immediately afterwards. Kenin was quite upset, and she has played alot of tough matches in the past year.. This is not a good spot for Sonya, and Yafan may decide to punish her. Yafan is the mentally stronger player even though Kenin is a tremendous fighter.  Also the experience level with Yafan comes into play, and Kenin with perhaps more potential, but I like the way that Yafan Wang plays alot, and as I said before there is no reason for Kenin to be the favorite in the match other than you to lose your money if you bet on her

Wu - Gonzalez 2.21 Pinnacle
 
Wu could be the next big China star. The dude scored some nice wins on clay last season and is in nice form comming after futures win. Gonzales is nowhere close to his best. He is pretty slow and this is the treason he has more succes on hard then on clay in recent years

If the odds are about the same, I'd prefer the games handicap in this particular case, as Kovalik could potentially fall away in the decider with no match fitness.

Alexei Popiryn (-3.5) to beat Jozef Kovalik @1.65 local bookie

Decent odds on Popiryn here. Alexei is playing good tennis from the beginning of the season,while Kovalik haven't play a single match since USO last year. Also,i think Kovalik is more a clay court "specialist".

I don't really agree with the first tip, Jung has been in a better form than Gunneswaran recently, so the odds look alright to me really. I do agree with the other two and I'll be going for two picks today.
Berankis (vs. Uchiyama) + Albot (vs. Krueger) at 2.04 with Pinnacle
Should be too strong honestly, I think @Hermes is pointing things out correctly here. The underdogs might be inspired, but the quality of Berankis and Albot should show eventually.
Thomas Fabbiano to beat Marcos Giron at 1.63 with Pinnacle
The conditions in Indian Wells are reasonably slow and that should suit Fabbiano, who's also been in nice form recently, almost beating Verdasco in Dubai after beating two players that I'd rate slightly above Giron.

Brayden Schnur to beat Steve Johnson at 3.20 with Paddy Power
On a bit of a losing streak at the moment, but I suppose that was expected given the nice winning run at the start of the year. Nevertheless, I still want to play Schnur, especially after going through Johnson's record book that has so many recent losses that it's almost unbelievable. Of course, Schnur is a guy he could finally beat, but he's played some decent matches here already and has enough talent to stay there with Johnson. At 3.20, I think the bookies are underestimating Schnur's chances here.

You forget that Joao won Estoril open last season beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinal so he is quite alright on clay. I think Juan will run out of steam here and lose pretty easily.

Joao Sousa to beat Juan Ignacio Londero at 1.72 with betfair
Londero had an amazing week winning in Cordoba but I can’t imagine him doing another deep run here after playing 5 matches in 5 days. He will play against another good claycourter with more experience and he should be tired after his 5 matches in Cordoba. The only problem here is that Sousa is not in his best (he lost recently his 2 matches against Bublik and Kukushkin in the Davis Cup) but he’s better ranked (41) and has more experience so I expect him to win against a player that should be tired.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Hyeon Chung at 1.84 with 888
Basilashvili lost in the first round in Sofia against Brands and retired from the doubles so looks like he had some kind of problem but that was 1 week ago and he should be fit for this one. Chung did nothing remarkable since he reached the semifinals the last year in the AO. This year he lost against Herbert in the second round in what was an expected early loss from him considering his form and lost in the first round in Chennai (Gulbis: 7-6, 6-2) and Auckland (Rubin Statham: 7-5, 6-3).

I forgot to check where Noah comes from and I read he's from Long Island. To bad I missed that.

Noah Rubin @ 2.15 5dimes 5/10
Fully expect Rubin to play a great tournament here and with Thompson he has a winnable first round. This is Rubins home tournament in New York City. He skipped the last week in Dallas and decided to prepare in New York at home so he is fully fit and ready for the tournament and last year he played a great match vs. Nishikori. Rubin had a close match with Thompson a couple of months ago, i think he will edge it this time. Thompson on the other side had some minor issues before Davis Cup, so he played only doubles there, i think he should be fine here but still without a competitive match for almost four weeks. 

@four-leaf this is so hard to put all 4 tips in one post ?