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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Big Race Trends - Sat/Sun (Feb 3rd/4th)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3.35 Sandown

    13/14 – Carried 11-5 or less
    13/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
    12/14 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
    11/14 – Aged 9 or younger
    10/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
    9/14 – Rated 136 or lower

    Short list - Holly Bush Henry, Wicked Willy, Shanroe Santos

    Shanroe Santos is consistent but a bit one paced and might want extreme distances. Makes the odd jumping error

    the other two look OK

    Holly Bush Henry at 8/1 bog wm hill

    Wicked Willy at 10/1 bog Corals

    Big Race Trends - Sat/Sun (Feb 3rd/4th)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Trying some different trends to see if I can come up with an alternative selection

    trends courtesy of Juicestorm

    Sandown 3.00

    12/12 – Had run in the last 8 weeks
    12/12 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
    11/12 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
    11/12 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
    10/12 – Officially rated 135 or lower
    10/12 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles previously

    Applying these gives me a shortlist of 3 - Fourth Act, Doesyourdogbite, Man of Plenty

    I'm going for Man of Plenty at 33/1 EW bog wm hill on the basis that he's been running over shorter trips but won over 2 miles on the flat so he 'might' improve for the extra distance. He's been finishing in the first 5 on his recent outings in similar class races so shouldn't have to improve much to get competitive

     

    Live pictures - transparancy

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I was watching a YouTube interview with someone who makes a living betting in running from home sitting in front of the TV

    He was very specific that RUK had about 3 seconds delay and ATR had about 7 seconds

    It was quite interesting because he said that the delays only really matter if you're betting in running near the race finish as most people do .......... he reckons he tends to bet after the first couple of furlongs and his edge is in reading how the horses are going early in the race and taking on favourites that are pulling or not settling or just looking like they're not 'off'

     

     

    Big Race Trends - Sat Jan 27th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Using the trends I've got a short list of 4 for the Doncaster race but some have negatives

    Pilgrims Bay - has only won (or been 2nd) on right-handed tracks

    Minella On Line - sloppy jumper, could get found out in this better race

    Mustmeetalady - no glaring negatives

    Federici - out of the handicap (3 lbs)

    I'd put a line through the top two for the given reasons

    Federici ran well to be 4th in the Becher from out of the weights so I'm not holding that against him

     

    My two ........ both EW

    Mustmeetalady at 16/1 bog wm hill

    Federici at 20/1 bog wm hill

    Racing Chat - Friday 26th Jan

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    As a preamble to my selection let me just explain that I'm a bit of a 'grass is greener' kind of chap ......... whatever is on at the moment I usually can't wait for the next thing

    So as we're in the middle of the Jumps season hurtling towards Cheltenham my attention is turning to the Summer Game ...... the classics, Royal Ascot, Goodwood, York, Arc ..........

    My interest has been piqued by a horse running on the AW at Kempton tonight ......... an unraced 3yo who has an entry in the Irish 2000 Guineas. OK, so there's probably several hundred horses who hold an entry in the Guineas ....... but this is the first debutant 3yo that I've noticed with possible lofty hopes

    USA bred and only cost 15,000 dollars as a yearling ...... his value rocketed to 1.4 million Euros as a 2yo. Trained by Jeremy Noseda and Ryan Moore comes back from his winter break to ride this one horse at the meeting

    Kemp 8.15 - Walk In The Sun at 13/8 bog Wm Hill

    It probably won't win with previous winners in opposition and horses from Godolphin, Hannon, Balding etc in the race ........... and likely could be green, need a run and so on but I'll be interested to see how it gets on and if that Classics dream can be kept alive for now..............

     

    The bearer of bad news,systems!!!

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I'm not sure many people do believe that there is such a thing as a long-term winning system

    In fact I'm pretty sure nobody with any sense does

    Most things that pass for 'systems' on forums generally involve some kind of judgment. I think for anything to count as a system it has to be automatic with no selection input or judgment choice

    And there might be a place for a system even then

    For example you might be very busy but want a runner in the daily competition on PL ........ something random like 'highest weighted CD winner in the biggest field handicap of the day and if there isn't one go down to the next biggest field and so on' would be a system which would give you a runner every day for a bit of interest but not take up too much time

     

     

    Racing Chat - Thursday Jan 25th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Some trends for todays big race in Ireland ..... the Thyestes at Gowran, 3.00pm

    Usually contested by 'Grand National' types and Grade horses, it's a top handicap. Some well known names amongst the previous winners ......

    2017 – CHAMPAGNE WEST (7/1)
    2016 – MY MURPHY (16/1)
    2015 – DJAKADAM (9/2)
    2014 – ON HIS OWN (12/1)
    2013 – JADANLI (25/1)
    2012 – ON HIS OWN (10/1)
    2011 – SIEGEMASTER (16/1)
    2010 – WHINSTONE BOY (5/1)
    2009 – PREISTS LEAP (20/1)
    2008 – PREISTS LEAP (20/1)
    2007 – HOMER WELLS (16/1)
    2006 – DUN DOIRE (9/4 fav)
    2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (8/1)
    2004 – HEDGEHUNTER (10/3 fav)

    Some trends....... (courtesy of JuiceStorm) ........ I've selected trends that apply to at least 11/15 of previous winners

    15/15 – Won by an Irish-based stable
    14/15 – Irish bred
    14/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks (I've extended to 2 months)
    14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (rules) before
    12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
    11/15 – Aged 9 or younger
     

    Bit of a bummer in that once I'd eliminated from the first 4 trends there were no runners left ! ....... so I've extended 'raced in the last 4 weeks' to 2 months to bring a few more back in

    After applying the top 6 trends there's only 1 horse left .......

    A Genie In A Bottle , currently 9/1 at Wm Hill

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