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Trotter

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Posts posted by Trotter

    Racing Chat - Monday Jan 15th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Noted that there's a class horse running on the AW this evening - 6.40 Wolves

    Frontiersman finished second in the group one Coronation Cup at Epsom behind Highland Reel

    He's got a 3lb penalty for a Listed win at Newmarket but even so he's got plenty in hand on the figures

    However ......... he has needed a run after breaks in the past and he's never run on the AW ..... so he's not an absolute shoe and indeed is slightly odds against at the moment

    I think it might be worth chancing an EW on the French horse, Funny Kid, at 25/1

    After bumbling around the provinces for a couple of years he ran 3 decent races in Paris and Deauville last backend ........... his best run being on the AW at Deauville winning a competitive handicap off top weight at the end of November. His French jockey has come over to ride him and as it's only 5 weks or so since he ran it's unlikely this is a prep race for anything ........... you'd think they must fancy him to bother bringing him over when there's plenty of more valuable AW races in France

     

     

    Racing Chat - Saturday Jan 13th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Triple Chance ..... 3 selections for big field Jumps handicaps of 12 plus runners based on early price favourite at time of posting, Racing post Verdict selection and my EW shot at bigger odds, generally a horse with course form which might outrun it's odds. Between those 3 selections we get lots of winners and placed horses.

    Few races today ! ....... selections with current odds

    Kemp 2.40

    EP Fav - Diese des Bieffes 5/1

    RP Verdict - Spiritofhtegames at 16/1

    My EW - Bags Groove at 16/1 - CD winner, won last two races, on the upgrade and lightly raced - just the type for a valuable handicap

    Warw 12. 40

    EP Fav - Equus Millar at 6/1

    RP Verdict - Destined to Shine at 17/2

    My EW - Peppay le Pugh at 14/1 - bit tricky this race as none of the bigger priced ones have course form. Picked this one as ran well last time after a break and should come on for the run in which case will be thereabouts

    Warw 2.25 

    EP Fave - Black Ivory 9/2

    RP Verdict - Black Ivory 9/2

    My EW - Kris Spin at 10/1 - bit of an old timer now but thorough stayer, CD winner, should be plugging at the end of 3 miles on soft ground

    Warw 3.35

    EP Fave - Missed Approach at 5/1

    RP Verdict - Missed Approach at 5/1

    My EW - Goodtoknow at 14/1 - 2nd in this race last year, Unseated 2nd on seasonal debut then pulled up in the Becher after running prominently for a long way,. This represents a drop in class and hopefully he'll come on for that Aintree run. 

    Let's see how we get on !

     

     

    Big Race Trends

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Come up with 2 for the Classic Chase

    Krakatoa King currently 8/1

    Emperors Choice currently 11/1

     

    Be interesting to see if other people come up with the same horses. I do think there's room for a bit of leeway in using the trends ........ for example I'm not keen on trends which use the Odds ....... eg Favourites, Horses in single figure odds, as to my mind the purpose of looking at a race in this way is to find horses that have a better chance then their odds ! ......... in other words use the trends to establish what 'should' be favourite. Using trends based on odds seems to defeat the object. So I'm likely to skip those trends and other posters might give less weight to other trends so it's possible we will come up with different horses.

    Big Race Trends

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    The decs are out

    Looking at the Lanzarote and applying the trends fairly strictly there's only one horse left ........ and this one doesn't fit all the trends as not trained by Nicholls or Williams

    Diese des Bieffes currently 6/1

    Another one fits the trends apart from price and could be the EW shot

    Dentley de Mee currently 20/1 (and trained by Nick Williams)

     

    So these are my two against the field based on trends

    win - Diese des Bieffes currently 6/1

    EW - Dentley de Mee currently 20/1

     

    Big Race Trends

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    The Lanzarote - 21 furlongs

    I've been looking at the 10 previous winners and noted the following -

    10/10 had previously won on Right Handed tracks

    10/10 had previously won races with double figure field size

    9/10 had not won over further than today's trip (the one that had was only half a furlong further. Suggests you don't want a stayer dropping in trip)

    8/10 had never run on the Flat (one of the other 2 had only run once, on racecourse debut in the French provinces. The other one had run 6 times and never been placed). Suggests you want a Jumps bred horse not a fancy dan off the flat - I note that the current favourite, River Frost, is flat bred and has run 10 times on the Flat. Not sure if that should put you off though as he is a CD winner last time out in a competitive handicap. 

     

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