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Trotter
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Posts posted by Trotter
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25 points on Oxford United to win at 1.95
cheers !
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Asc 1.15 - Chef D'Equipe - win at 7/2 bog Corals
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Captain Redbeard looks a good choice BH ....... as well as fitting the trends he's a dual course winner and has won on Heavy
At 9/1 he looks an EW banker !
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Chep 2.45 - Carnspindle - win at 6/1 bog Corals
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1.30 Lud - Copper Kay - win at 7/2 bog wm hill
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MR 12.30 - Second Time Around - win at 12/1 bog Corals
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12.20 Hereford - Royale Zanzibar - win at 9/1 bog PP
- BillyHills and corky
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Noted that there's a class horse running on the AW this evening - 6.40 Wolves
Frontiersman finished second in the group one Coronation Cup at Epsom behind Highland Reel
He's got a 3lb penalty for a Listed win at Newmarket but even so he's got plenty in hand on the figures
However ......... he has needed a run after breaks in the past and he's never run on the AW ..... so he's not an absolute shoe and indeed is slightly odds against at the moment
I think it might be worth chancing an EW on the French horse, Funny Kid, at 25/1
After bumbling around the provinces for a couple of years he ran 3 decent races in Paris and Deauville last backend ........... his best run being on the AW at Deauville winning a competitive handicap off top weight at the end of November. His French jockey has come over to ride him and as it's only 5 weks or so since he ran it's unlikely this is a prep race for anything ........... you'd think they must fancy him to bother bringing him over when there's plenty of more valuable AW races in France
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5 hours ago, Trotter said:
Plump 3.05 - Themanfrom Minella - win at 4/1 bog bet365
Just noticed that Plumpton is off - waterlogged !
I'll have a go at ......
Ayr 3.25 - Casual Cavalier - win at 10/3 bog PP
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Plump 3.05 - Themanfrom Minella - win at 4/1 bog bet365
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Kelso 1.40 - Chti Balko - win at 5/1 bog wm hill
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Well done BH with Spiritofhegames ....... 16/1 EW and went off 16/1 as well
Added a bit of interest to watching the big races !
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One of the trends picks is a non runner ....... Emperors Choice at Warwick
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Kemp 1.30 - Breath of Blighty - win at 11/2 bog bet365
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Triple Chance ..... 3 selections for big field Jumps handicaps of 12 plus runners based on early price favourite at time of posting, Racing post Verdict selection and my EW shot at bigger odds, generally a horse with course form which might outrun it's odds. Between those 3 selections we get lots of winners and placed horses.
Few races today ! ....... selections with current odds
Kemp 2.40
EP Fav - Diese des Bieffes 5/1
RP Verdict - Spiritofhtegames at 16/1
My EW - Bags Groove at 16/1 - CD winner, won last two races, on the upgrade and lightly raced - just the type for a valuable handicap
Warw 12. 40
EP Fav - Equus Millar at 6/1
RP Verdict - Destined to Shine at 17/2
My EW - Peppay le Pugh at 14/1 - bit tricky this race as none of the bigger priced ones have course form. Picked this one as ran well last time after a break and should come on for the run in which case will be thereabouts
Warw 2.25
EP Fave - Black Ivory 9/2
RP Verdict - Black Ivory 9/2
My EW - Kris Spin at 10/1 - bit of an old timer now but thorough stayer, CD winner, should be plugging at the end of 3 miles on soft ground
Warw 3.35
EP Fave - Missed Approach at 5/1
RP Verdict - Missed Approach at 5/1
My EW - Goodtoknow at 14/1 - 2nd in this race last year, Unseated 2nd on seasonal debut then pulled up in the Becher after running prominently for a long way,. This represents a drop in class and hopefully he'll come on for that Aintree run.
Let's see how we get on !
- corky and godofhorses
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Getafe to win at 1.75
Peterhead to win at 1.40
25 points win double
cheers !
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58 minutes ago, Trotter said:
2.30 Sedge - Dylanseoghan - win at 4/1 bog bet365
Oops ..... that's Huntingdon at 2.30 !
Sorry ......
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Nice one BH !
looks like we've got a few horses running for us ..........
be neat if we got a couple of winners and our EW shots get placed ! ..............
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2.30 Sedge - Dylanseoghan - win at 4/1 bog bet365
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Come up with 2 for the Classic Chase
Krakatoa King currently 8/1
Emperors Choice currently 11/1
Be interesting to see if other people come up with the same horses. I do think there's room for a bit of leeway in using the trends ........ for example I'm not keen on trends which use the Odds ....... eg Favourites, Horses in single figure odds, as to my mind the purpose of looking at a race in this way is to find horses that have a better chance then their odds ! ......... in other words use the trends to establish what 'should' be favourite. Using trends based on odds seems to defeat the object. So I'm likely to skip those trends and other posters might give less weight to other trends so it's possible we will come up with different horses.
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The decs are out
Looking at the Lanzarote and applying the trends fairly strictly there's only one horse left ........ and this one doesn't fit all the trends as not trained by Nicholls or Williams
Diese des Bieffes currently 6/1
Another one fits the trends apart from price and could be the EW shot
Dentley de Mee currently 20/1 (and trained by Nick Williams)
So these are my two against the field based on trends
win - Diese des Bieffes currently 6/1
EW - Dentley de Mee currently 20/1
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Leic 12.45 - Vocaliser - win at 9/2 bog Corals
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The Lanzarote - 21 furlongs
I've been looking at the 10 previous winners and noted the following -
10/10 had previously won on Right Handed tracks
10/10 had previously won races with double figure field size
9/10 had not won over further than today's trip (the one that had was only half a furlong further. Suggests you don't want a stayer dropping in trip)
8/10 had never run on the Flat (one of the other 2 had only run once, on racecourse debut in the French provinces. The other one had run 6 times and never been placed). Suggests you want a Jumps bred horse not a fancy dan off the flat - I note that the current favourite, River Frost, is flat bred and has run 10 times on the Flat. Not sure if that should put you off though as he is a CD winner last time out in a competitive handicap.
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1.55 Lud - Dark Mahler - win at 7/2 bog bet365
Naps Competition - Sunday Jan 21st
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
Chelm 2.25 - Stosur - win at 7/2 bog bet365