Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
New Bookie Offer - Highbet - Bet £10 GET £25 (no wagering on winnings)

Trotter

Regular Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    14,672

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    37

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Trotter

    Big Race Trends - Sat March 10th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    This is what we have so far ...... assume EW

    Sandown 2.25

    Silver Streak (BH)

    Friday Night Light (Trotter, Xtc)

    Highway One O One (Trotter)

    Friday Night Light has been well backed and is in to 2nd Fav at 6/1. Silver Streak and Highway One O One are both holding their price at 12/1

     

    Wolves 2.05

    Constantino (BH, RW's Ratings, Trotter, Xtc)

    Mr Scaranaga (Trotter, RW's Ratings)

    Constantino has halved in price overnight and is currently 2nd Fav at 5/1, Mr Scaramaga is currently 3rd Fav at 7/1

    Big Race Trends - Sat March 10th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

    Trotter dont you think if 8/10 winners have been single figures it also tells you something?

    Well I don't think it tells you much more than 'this a horse race' !

    The main reason I'm not keen on SP related trends is that treating it as a bit of fun I'm using the trends to find out which horses should be short prices but are good EW value based on the trends

    Just looking at the first few in the betting kind of defeats the object

    Interesting discussion though ......... :ok

    and as I said it's just a bit of fun and makes for a readable thread every week

    Big Race Trends - Sat March 10th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Lynx said:

    I like trends. Obviously they're better at predicting the past than the future, but they can have their uses. The trick, of course, is to work out which are significant.

     

    Yes ...  I think that's the bit where you have to use some judgment

    If I see a list of trends for a race I try and think of which ones are specific to this race and which ones are just general to all horse racing

    So for a big handicap I might look at age, number of runs, number of wins, trainer of past winners, ...... all which might point to a type of horse that trainers are preparing for this big handicap

    Other trends seem to be just general horse racing trends and are not specific to this race. For example '8/10 were single figure prices' ...... that probably just relates to all racing and isn't specific to this race. Shorter priced horses win more than bigger priced ones !

    Big Race Trends - Sat March 10th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Good question !

    I think a lot of trends are fairly useless but I treat it as a bit of fun !

    I certainly wouldn't bet on the basis of trends

    I think some trends do have value though in the big handicaps ...... those would be the ones around age, number of runs, number of wins,....... the basis being that trainers tend to be creatures of habit and they will identify horses as 'he's a Lincoln Horse' or 'he's a County Hurdle horse' ...... and generally what they mean is lightly raced, young horses who are better than the handicapper has been able to assess them because they haven't run very often

    And I expect that trainers will be preparing the same kind of horse for those big races each season because they have a template in their mind as to what is the kind of horse that might win that kind of race

     

    Big Race Trends - Sat March 10th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Trotter

    2.05 Wolv - Lincoln Trial

    14/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
    14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
    13/15 – Won over a mile (or further) before
    12/15– Won at least three times before
    9/15 – Ran at Lingfield last time out

    Those trends leave me with 2 runners. I'm not overly happy about using 'had raced within 6 weeks' as trainers can get them ready at home better these days with all weather gallops etc but it did enable me to delete another 3 from my original short list (which was too long !)

    Also not overly keen on 'Ran at Lingfield' last time but it got me down from 3 to 2

    Mr Scaramanga - EW at 12/1 PP

    Constantino - EW at 8/1 Corals

     

    Big Race Trends - Sat March 10th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2.25 Sandown - Imperial Cup

    just picking out some trends that have at least 2/3rd relevance

    15/15 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
    14/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
    13/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
    12/15 – Aged 6 or younger
    10/15 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before

    those 5 trends have got me down to 2 runners

    Just cheating a little bit on the 'won over 2 miles 1 furlong' as one of my selection has won over the extended 2 miles at Newbury.

    Friday Night Light - EW at 10/1 bet365

    Highway One O One - EW at 14/1 wm hill

    Racing Chat - Tuesday March 6th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Strange goings on with Betvictor this morning

    I was looking at the 3.20 at Southwell for the competition and noticed that Betvictor hadn't amended their prices after the overnight favourite was a non runner

    So in a 5 runner race with at least one no hoper you could still get 3/1 and 4/1 for the two market leaders

    I didn't want to post my comp entry until I knew all the prices so I kept checking and it took a couple of hours for them to update ........ I was looking at the Racing Post and Oddschecker.

    I don't have a Betvictor account so don't know if they were accepting bets for two hours at 'wrong' prices but you'd think someone at Betvictor would have noticed !

×
×
  • Create New...