kroni

With a week to go until the big one, thought I'd post my thoughts and a few bets ahead of the World Championship that starts on Thursday December 15th.
 
Top 7 in the betting
 
Michael van Gerwen (11/4 Betway, 5/2 General)
Van Gerwen comes into the World Championships as favourite, and in my eyes is the most likely winner of the event. His form towards the back end of the season has been excellent, winning the Grand Prix and Players Championship Finals and reaching the quarter-finals of the Grand Slam. Earlier on in the year he also captured the Premier League and World Matchplay, and having looked a bit vulnerable for the last couple of seasons, he looks like he is on his way back to his best. His record at the World Champs is impressive, three titles (2014, 2017 & 2019) and runner-up twice (2013 & 2020) in the last ten years. The last six players to beat him at Ally Pally have had to average in excess of 100 to beat him – so you have to play very well to defeat him in this event. Van Gerwen had to withdraw from the event 12 months ago due to Covid, I reckon he takes all the beating this time around.
 
Gerwyn Price (6/1 General)
Gerwyn Price comes into Ally Pally as the second favourite and number one seed, but I’m finding it a bit difficult to read his form right now. A finalist at the Matchplay earlier on in the year, he reached the semi-finals of the Grand Prix but exited in the first round of the European Championship and Players Championship Finals. As a former winner, the ‘Iceman’ has to be respected, but I don’t think he’s playing his best right now. I suspect Price will go fairly deep in the tournament, but I don’t see him winning it this year. 
 
Michael Smith (8/1 Unibet, 15/2 General)
‘Bully Boy’ finally captured his first TV Major at the Grand Slam of Darts last month, and his second might not be too far away. Even before the Grand Slam, Smith was having a decent season, reaching the final of the UK Open and European Championships as well as winning three Players Championship events and one European Tour event. His record at the World Championship over the last four years has been feast or famine. Early exits in 2020 and 2021 are sandwiched by appearances in the final in 2019 and 2022. In last year’s final he averaged over 99 and led Peter Wright 5-4, before Wright played some spell-binding darts to reel off the final three sets. With the added confidence of his first TV major, Smith has every chance of going all the way this year.
 
Peter Wright (11/1 General)
It’s not been the best of years for Peter Wright, and that’s before we take a look at his results on the dartboard. An operation over the summer ruled him out of World Series events in Australia and New Zealand, and whilst he bounced back to win on the European Tour in September, he’s been hit by further setbacks with the health of his wife. As a result ‘Snakebite’ pulled out of the Players Championship Finals so his preparation hasn’t been ideal, and with matters off the oche rightly his priority at the moment, Wright doesn’t appeal this time around. As defending champion Wright could make the 11/1 quotes look massive come the New Year, but equally it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he lost on the opening night and prioritised his personal life over Christmas.
 
Luke Humphries (14/1 General)
Luke Humphries comes into the World Championships as a major threat in my opinion. ‘Cool Hand Luke’ won four European Tour titles earlier in the year and has followed that up with semi-final appearances at both the Grand Slam and Players Championship Finals. His record at the World Championships is also pretty good, a quarter-finalist in three of the last four seasons – and he’s arguably playing much better coming into the tournament this time around than in previous years. Unfortunately, Humphries is in the same quarter of the draw as Michael Smith, but Humphries is up to number five in the World now, you don’t get there without performing consistently well in the big events.
 
Josh Rock (16/1 General)
I’m a big fan of Josh Rock and what he’s achieved this year, but can’t help feel the hype surrounding the young Northern Irishman has bought his price in too far, and he’s become unbackable for me now. This has been Rock’s debut season on the PDC Pro Tour and in the second half of the year he’s played some incredible darts, consistently averaging in the high 90’s. Parallels are being drawn to when Rob Cross burst onto the scene in 2017, but in that season Cross reached the final of the European Championship, two European Tour events and won four Players Championship events. In comparison Rock has won one Players Championship and didn’t progress past the second round in any of the big tournaments towards the back end of the year. There’s no doubt ‘Rocky’ has had a great debut season, but at odds of 16/1 he’s not for me this time around. (Nathan Aspinall, Rob Cross and Danny Noppert have all reached major TV finals and plenty of floor finals this year, and can be backed at twice the odds of Rock).
 
Jonny Clayton (18/1 General)
Jonny Clayton has had another decent season in the non-ranking events, but he’s disappointed in most of the big ranking events recently, losing out in the second round of the Grand Prix, European Championships and Grand Slam. In the most recent tournament, the Players Championship Finals, he made it through to the semi-finals, but his level seems to have dropped compared to the last couple of years. His record at the World Championship doesn’t inspire confidence either, having never made it to the quarter-finals in six attempts.
 
A few others at bigger prices
 
Rob Cross (33/1 General)
It’s been a bit of a mixed bag this season for Cross, disappointing in most of the big TV majors, but then last time out making the final of the Players Championship Finals. Away from the big stage, he’s reached the final of three European Tour events and picked up two titles on the floor in the Players Championship events – so there are signs Cross could do some damage at Ally Pally. He seems slightly over-priced at 33/1, but being in the same quarter as van Gerwen has dampened my enthusiasm for ‘Voltage’.
 
Nathan Aspinall (40/1 Unibet, 33/1 General)
Aspinall has had some injury concerns over the last 18 months, so it’s pretty impressive that he’s bounced back to reach two major finals this year; runner-up to van Gerwen at the Grand Prix and to Michael Smith at the Grand Slam. Aspinall has also reached five finals on the floor this season, more than any other player, winning two of them. ‘The Asp’ has also reached the semi-finals at Ally Pally in two of the last four years, so knows what it takes to go deep in this tournament. The draw could have been kinder to Aspinall, Rock or Callan Rydz in round three, and then seeded to play Clayton in round four and Wright in the quarter-finals, but I’m not ruling out another good showing from Aspinall.
 
Beau Greaves (400/1 PaddyPower)
I won’t be backing Beau Greaves, even at 400/1, but I’m hoping she can shake things up a bit at Ally Pally this year. The 18-year-old has been sensational in the PDC Women’s Series this year, she’s won the last eight events in the series to qualify for this event, a total of 52 consecutive matches. Whilst the quality of opposition clearly isn’t as good as on the main PDC Pro Tour, that takes some doing. Across those 52 matches she’s averaged 85.8, but in many of those games her average would probably have been higher if she’d have been pushed a bit more. An indication of how she can perform was seen in final of the penultimate Women’s Series event, where she beat Fallon Sherrock 5-3 and averaged close to 108. She’ll surely have the Ally Pally crowd behind her, and whilst she won’t be carrying my money, she will have my support – until she faces Michael Smith in the semi-final ?.
 
So it’s Michael van Gerwen and Michael Smith to win the title. I can’t ignore the chances of Luke Humphries to have a deep run, and will take a chance on Nathan Aspinall to see off the highly fancied Josh Rock early on and reach the semi-finals.
 
Michael van Gerwen to win Outright 5 pts @ 11/4 Betway
Michael Smith to win Outright 3 pts @ 8/1 Unibet
Luke Humphries to reach Quarter-Finals 5 pts @ 6/4 PaddyPower
Nathan Aspinall to win the Third Quarter 2 pts @ 9/1 BetVictor

1258 Auteuil - Impressive Machin @ 40/1 e-w Bet365
The fav here looks in a different class and holds some these on that impressive win last time, i dont see any of those reversing form today and at the skinny odds on offer i think it is worth taking a chance on something each way. I like the way Impressive Machin won lto looked to have more in the tank, moving from a handicap to this grade 1 is going to be tough but 40/1 is worth the risk.

1258 Auteuil - Impressive Machin @ 40/1 e-w Bet365
The fav here looks in a different class and holds some these on that impressive win last time, i dont see any of those reversing form today and at the skinny odds on offer i think it is worth taking a chance on something each way. I like the way Impressive Machin won lto looked to have more in the tank, moving from a handicap to this grade 1 is going to be tough but 40/1 is worth the risk.

1258 Auteuil - Impressive Machin @ 40/1 e-w Bet365
The fav here looks in a different class and holds some these on that impressive win last time, i dont see any of those reversing form today and at the skinny odds on offer i think it is worth taking a chance on something each way. I like the way Impressive Machin won lto looked to have more in the tank, moving from a handicap to this grade 1 is going to be tough but 40/1 is worth the risk.

1258 Auteuil - Impressive Machin @ 40/1 e-w Bet365
The fav here looks in a different class and holds some these on that impressive win last time, i dont see any of those reversing form today and at the skinny odds on offer i think it is worth taking a chance on something each way. I like the way Impressive Machin won lto looked to have more in the tank, moving from a handicap to this grade 1 is going to be tough but 40/1 is worth the risk.

1258 Auteuil - Impressive Machin @ 40/1 e-w Bet365
The fav here looks in a different class and holds some these on that impressive win last time, i dont see any of those reversing form today and at the skinny odds on offer i think it is worth taking a chance on something each way. I like the way Impressive Machin won lto looked to have more in the tank, moving from a handicap to this grade 1 is going to be tough but 40/1 is worth the risk.

1258 Auteuil - Impressive Machin @ 40/1 e-w Bet365
The fav here looks in a different class and holds some these on that impressive win last time, i dont see any of those reversing form today and at the skinny odds on offer i think it is worth taking a chance on something each way. I like the way Impressive Machin won lto looked to have more in the tank, moving from a handicap to this grade 1 is going to be tough but 40/1 is worth the risk.

Odds on selections
Newcastle 1.00 Mofasa 4/11 Newcastle 2.10 Constitution Hill 1/3

Completely disorganised this morning so just a few bets today
1.20 NB Demachine 2 pts win at 6.2 My PL Nap @richard-westwood's 2nd top rated and hampered by being the selection of the Big 3.  This is a very competitive race.  I don't fancy Zanza despite the go-faster blinkers.  Instead I'll have 0.50 ew on Cap Du Lord 11/1 @Villa Chris's 2nd selection  
1.55 Nb Petit Tonnerre 0.50 ew at 12/1
3.05 Richard's top 4 selections 0.50 win bets 5/1, 11/1, 14/1 and 13/2.  skipped Fenian Destruval for a combination forecast and instead put Gericault Rogue with Le Milops and Fiddlerontheroof  0.25 forecast = 1.50 +2 pts win bets = 3.50.  Serves me right if @The Brigadier's  Remastered scuppers my plans
7.50 stakes today
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Well I couldn't have cocked that up better had I tried.  A small win on Le Milos and a place return on Petit Tonnere.  Only I could show a loss of 2.80 by backing in Richard's races
I will go with Richard's 6.50 at Wolves tonight Big Narstie 1 pt win at 6.2 then 0.50 ew on Huddleton Mac (big drifter at 10/1) and  a 0.50 reverse forecast on both with poss returns of 19.26 and 22.80
Total points today 10.5
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Very disappointing run by Big Narstie, blew the race just after the start.  The bet created a loss of 5.80 on the day.  An interesting day although I didn't have much time to participate today.  Anyway my MTD is now -37.3 and YTD -249.04
Just two meetings tomorrow and although there is some good class racing there seems to be a lot of races with short priced favourites in the handicaps.  This does not look good and makes finding value bets very difficult indeed.
Three cheers for @richard-westwoodI hope that some PL members made some money by backing his selections today ?

1st and 2nd top 2 ....+20.00

Jeez ....Red risk !!!......and double too .....with first race and 1 race to come ....gonna be a jackpot day 

R4 40p but I think he will be settled at 30/1 rather than 50 /1 .....which is 217 pts .....plus the single 30 is 247 ....if other race wins it could double though ....

I should have stated that this is the forecast price. I don't use the SP because we don't know what this is until the off and it is therefore of no use if we want to select the horse prior to the race and take the early price.

155 newb 
West balboa   8.7 7/2 
Lord baddesley   8.4 7/1 
Red risk   7.9  50/1  
Red risk is out of form ....has possible ew chance if could get things together but top 2 look strong so I'll try 7pts win West...3pts win lord 
Doubles on top 2 in all 3 races  .

120 newb 
Zanza    8.5  6/1 
Demachine  8.3  7/1 
Kitty's light   8.1 25/1 
Kapcourse 7.9 
Close race .....any one of these 4 could be a potential winner .....kitty's light has a, definate squeak at a big price so I'll try 5pt wins top 3 and hope kitty pulls something on the day 

Eight races this afternoon with the ITV cameras showing five from Newbury with the feature race the Coral Gold Cup and three from Newcastle where we have the Fighting Fifth with the re-appearance of arguably the most exciting horse in training in Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten superstar Constitution Hill. The ground is likely to be just on the slow side at Newbury whilst Newcastle are reporting drying good to soft conditions. Here’s my thoughts on the days racing.     Newbury 1.20 A competitive 2m 6F handicap chase run in the memory of the legendary commentator Sir Peter O’Sullevan kicks off the days ITV coverage with a decent sized field of thirteen facing the starter. Last years winner Kapcorse is back to defend his title off of a 6lb higher mark and looks interesting for the combo of Nicholls and Cobden with a lay off unlikely to be an issue as he won this off of a similar break 12 months ago. Bottom weight Killer Kane will no doubt improve for his seasonal re-appearance when 6th at Chepstow and is a player here along with the Nicky Henderson runner Mister Coffey who is making his first start of the campaign. Welsh trainer Christian Williams runs a brace in top weight Kitty’s Light who may still be too high in the weights and of more interest his Cap Du Nord who won this race two years ago and is ridden by a 7lb conditional jockey today. Kerry Lee’s Demachine is a horse I like who ran out a comfortable winner at Uttoxeter when last seen in May and with Lee amongst the winners recently could be the value bet here. I also can’t resist a small each way saver on Philip Hobb’s Zanza who has form figures here of 1161 and is currently on a winning mark.   DEMACHINE 1 point each way @ 15/2 bet365 1/5th 1234 ZANZA 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 1/5th 1234   Newcastle 1.35 Five novice chasers line up for this class 3 2m 7F 91 yard novices’ handicap chase. Irish challenger Shantou Lucky trained by County Meath handler Gavin Cromwell is a rare runner here for his trainer and has to be respected but my preference is for the James Ewart trained Lord Roco who showed plenty of promise on his chase debut at Ayr when runner up to Grand Voyage. He’s stepping up three furlongs here but the stamina test should suit him and this lightly raced six year old looks sure to be competitive. Ben Pauling has his team in excellent shape and saddles his fencing debutant Malinello under Luca Morgan. He’s not been seen on the racecourse for 686 days and it will be some training performance where he to take this off of top weight. Brian Ellison’s Son Of The Somme is another who could take a hand in the finish following a promising chase debut at Ayr in October but it’s Lord Roco for me.   LORD ROCO 2 points win @ 4/1 BetVictor   Newbury 1.55 A decent and competitive 12 runner class 2 handicap hurdle run over 2m 4 1/2F is next up with the two market leaders making their handicap debuts and could be a fair bit better than their handicap mark. Nicky Henderson saddles Walking On Air, an impressive maiden hurdle winner here last January who it seems is held in very high regard by his trainer and a mark of just 132 could seriously underestimate his ability. The other potential blot on the handicap is the Skelton runner West Balboa who was last seen running second in last season’s Tolworth Hurdle over course and distance. She too could potentially be chucked in. Both have been well supported throughout the week with slight preference for the Henderson runner. Lord Baddesley impressed when bolting up at Plumpton last time but has been raised 9lb for that victory. Fergal O’Brien’s Peking Rose scraped home at Aintree last month and wouldn’t be certain to confirm that form with the third Petit Tonnerre who re-opposes on 2lb better terms for just over a length. An interesting runner at what appears to me to be too big a price is the Ian Williams trained Malakahna. The four year old filly comes here having won her last two starts on the flat in the Autumn and is chasing a four timer over timber having last been seen in that sphere at Cheltenham at their April meeting. She looks overpriced and I’ll back her small each way as well as Nicky Henderson’s Walking On Air.   MALAKAHNA 1 point each way @ 14/1 Boylesports 1/5th 1234 WALKING ON AIR 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill   Newcastle 2.10 Ascot’s loss is Newcastle’s gain as the most exciting horse in training Constitution Hill lines up for the two mile Fighting Fifth Hurdle on his seasonal re-appearance. Unbeaten last season in three starts culminating in a remarkable rout in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham in a very fast time, Nicky Henderson’s five year old is already around the even money mark for the Champion Hurdle and bar accidents should be winning this under Nico de Boinville. His smart stable companion Epatante, a former Champion Hurdle winner herself, has won this the last two years and is no slouch herself. She can finish runner up here but from a punting perspective it’s a no bet race but well worth watching to see how special Michael Buckley’s charge is.   Newbury 2.30 The 2m 69 yard intermediate handicap hurdle registered as the Gerry Feilden is a valuable contest which has attracted just the eight participants. All 8 can be give a chance of sorts with local trainer Nicky Henderson heading the weights with First Street and Thaetre Glory who are both making their seasonal re-appearances today. Both have claims though it’s the handicap debutant Pikak trained by Dan Skelton and ridden by his brother Harry that takes my eye. He kept good novice company as a four year old in races won by the likes of smart sorts Knappers Hill, I Like To Move It and Jonbon and got off the mark when an easy winner at Chepstow in October. That form has been given a double boost since with the 3rd all set for victory when crashing out at Ascot and the 4th winning well since. His mark of 127 looks possibly lenient and can take this.   PIKAR 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365   Newbury 3.05 Formerly known at The Hennessy Gold Cup and more recently The Ladbroke Trophy this 3m 2F handicap chase is now known as the Coral Gold Cup and as per normal has attracted a strong group of sixteen runners. With the bookmakers betting 7/1 the field and offering up to 6 places it really is a race to have a crack at. David Pipe runs two in Remastered and Gericault Roque with stable jockey Tom Scudamore on the latter although I wouldn’t be reading too much into that as Remastered was ridden by David Noonan last time when a comfortable winner over hurdles at Aintree with Gericault Roque down the field. Remastered was going like the winner when crashing out four from home last year and is actually 3lb lower this term. He’s on my short list. Joe Tizzard saddles three in Oscar Elite (Cobden), Fiddlerontheroof (Powell) and Lostintranslation (Freddie Gingell claiming 7lb). All have some sort of chance and I wouldn’t be shocked if the latter was to run well as he’s so well handicapped at present. Le Milos won well at Bangor last time and is officially 4lb well in here for the Skeltons but would definitely prefer it muddier. Lucinda Russell has her team in fine form with a treble at Kelso on Thursday and saddles Cheltenham Festival winner Corach Rambler who’s been teed up for this with a run at Carlisle 27 days ago. Towards the bottom of the handicap is Neil Mulholland’s Lord Accord who bumped into the well handicapped Frodon in the Badger Beers at Wincanton last time. A case can be made for plenty but it’s Remastered for me with a small saver on Lord Accord. Remember to shop around for those extra places.   REMASTERED 1 point each way @ 8/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 12345 LORD ACCORD 1/2 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 12345     Newcastle 3.25 Nine staying chasers line up for this premier handicap, the Rehearsal Handicap Chase run over just short of three miles. The weights are headed by Venetia Williiam’s Cheltenham Festival winner L’Homme Presse who has the steadier of twelve stone to carry. Williams has hit form within the last week but her stable star has plenty to do giving lumps of weight away on his seasonal reappearance and I’ll be taking him on here. Last year’s winner Aye Right is two from three at the North Eastern track and ran well on his seasonal re-appearance in a competitive Kelso handicap five weeks ago. He can run well. Kim Bailey sends his smart eight year old Happygolucky up from Gloucestershire although he has a 595 day absence to overcome. The four rank outsiders Windsor Avenue, The Big Bite, Whoshotthesherriff and Dallas Des Pictons are hard to fancy and this looks a good race for an each way bet. It’s the bottom weight trained by the under rated Mark Walford who catches my eye. A progressive seven year old chaser who’s won his last four starts rising some 26lb. Getting 26lb from the favourite L’Homme Presse he looks an excellent each way bet.   INTO OVERDRIVE 1 1/2 points each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Newbury 3.40 The afternoon’s terrestrial coverage concludes with a eight runner class 2 2M handicap chase. Joe Tizzard’s Amarillo Sky is a short enough favourite here having won at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham on his re-appearance 33 days ago. Raised 4lb for that victory he looks sure to be thereabouts though I must admit at around the 11/8 mark hardly looks value. Chris Gordon has his string in fine form and saddles Only Money here who’s already won twice this Autumn and ran well enough at Aintree behind Gunshot Ridge last time. He has solid each way claims. Dan Skelton has two runners in top weight Eclair D’Ainay and Hatcher with Harry Skelton presumably choosing the former and is probably the pick of that pair. The horse I like though is Tom George’s Bun Doran who has fallen to a very nice handicap mark. He last won at Doncaster in March and after flopping at Aintree the following month is back on the same mark as his Doncaster win. George has had 4 winners from his last 13 runners at a win ratio of 31% and if all eight run is worth a small stakes each way bet against the favourite.   BUN DORAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123  

Hi, you say that just one winner from the last 9 has been priced at 11/1 or more? The last winner was 33/1, in 2019 Dashel Drasher won at 12/1, in 2018 Sizing Tenesse also won at 12/1, in 2013 Triolo Dalene won at 20/1? Apologies if I'm wrong and good luck today.

The ITV race 4/1 offer is not the same thing as the Feature race 4/1 offer, so i guess you will get your Feature race offer on monday, and as there ITV racing tomorrow you should get the ITV offer then.

The ITV race 4/1 offer is not the same thing as the Feature race 4/1 offer, so i guess you will get your Feature race offer on monday, and as there ITV racing tomorrow you should get the ITV offer then.

The ITV race 4/1 offer is not the same thing as the Feature race 4/1 offer, so i guess you will get your Feature race offer on monday, and as there ITV racing tomorrow you should get the ITV offer then.

Botox wins....returns around 82.00

Not much luck today ....only 1 winner out of 4 races but still finished +22.00 on day 

3/5 today with winners at 9/1 11/1 12/1 
150 points profit 
P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 + 78.17

Cheltenham
145 - Malystic @ 17/2 e-w Bet365
220 - Hereditary Rule e-w @ SP / Honneur DAjonc e-w @ SP Both skybet 4 places
255 - My Manekineko @ 28/1 e-w Skybet 4 places
330 - Hubrisko @ 15/8 Bet365  /  Quid Pro Quo @ 11/1 e-w Bet365 3 places
400 - Galahad Threepwood @ 10/1 e-w Bet365  /  Mothill @ 11/1 e-w Bet365
 

Cheltenham
145 - Malystic @ 17/2 e-w Bet365
220 - Hereditary Rule e-w @ SP / Honneur DAjonc e-w @ SP Both skybet 4 places
255 - My Manekineko @ 28/1 e-w Skybet 4 places
330 - Hubrisko @ 15/8 Bet365  /  Quid Pro Quo @ 11/1 e-w Bet365 3 places
400 - Galahad Threepwood @ 10/1 e-w Bet365  /  Mothill @ 11/1 e-w Bet365